Following NY-20

If you want to follow the results in NY-20, I recommend comparing the incoming county-by-county results from here with the county-by-county results of the 2006 election (in which Gillibrand defeated John Sweeney by 6 points).

Though to some extent it may be possible to get a feel from raw totals, since the results didn’t vary by county that much last time. I’ll keep you posted via updates.

Update. Tedisco up 52-48 with about 15% reporting.

Update 2. Tedisco up 51-49 with about 20% reporting.

Update 3. Tedisco up 52-48 with about 30% reporting. Tedisco’s doing real well in the big county — Saratoga — and I’m not sure why (I don’t know the counties there well enough to know if that’s specifically where he’s from).

Update. Basically tied (Murphy up by a couple hundred votes) with about 45% in .

General update. I don’t know the district that well, but it’s common in NYS for the more urban districts to come in later than the more rural ones. So Democrats often close fairly strong. No idea if that’s the case here. In fact, Delaware, which was the big Republican stronghold hasn’t come in much at all yet.

Update. Tedisco back up by 800 votes with a little more than half in.

Update MikeJ writes:

Tedisco lives a few blocks from Saratoga county in Schenectady county. He was however, an assemblyman representing Saratoga Co. for 26 years.

Don’t be shocked if Tedisco wins on the strength of his popularity as an State Assemblyman. They loves them some State legislators in upstate NYS.

Update. Close to a flat-footed tie — Murphy by 150 — with about 70% in.

Update. Tedisco back up slightly with a few more precincts in. A lot of what’s left is Saratoga which may give Tedisco the advantage. On the other hand, hardly any of Columbia is in and that’s where Murphy is strongest.

Update. Tedisco up by a thousand voters with 80% in.

Update. Tedisco up by 1400 with almost 90% in. Saratoga is almost entirely in so what’s left is mostly Columbia and Delaware. This will probably be within a 1000 votes one way or the other tonight, which means we won’t know til the absentees are counted and everything is recanvased. The big story is that Tedisco’s assembly background seems to have helped a lot in Saratoga.

Update. Tedisco by about 120 votes with 22 precincts (out of 610) left, 8 in Columbia and 14 in Saratoga. We won’t know anything about who really won for a few weeks. Shailagh Murray is already pushing for a re-vote.

Update. Murphy up by 250 votes with three precincts from Saratoga left to report.

Update.Murphy up by 81 votes with one precinct in Saratoga left.

Update. Murphy up by 65 after tonight.

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66 replies
  1. 1
    Laura W says:

    When you said you might be wine blogging, I thought you meant blogging about wine.
    You meant blogging on wine, huh?
    Shoot.

  2. 2
    DougJ says:

    @Laura W

    Do I sound drunk? I haven’t opened the bottle yet.

  3. 3
    Comrade Darkness says:

    Why not do both?

  4. 4
    West of the Cascades says:

    This is the most indispensable blog on the internet – thanks for the guidance on where to look for real-time results. The NY Board of Elections site is useless.

  5. 5

    Panic at Tedisco.

    That is all.

  6. 6
    Laura W says:

    @DougJ: Oh gosh no. Not what I meant at all. That was my way of saying: "I’ve been waiting patiently for the wine chat post and the BJ Bar & Brawl regulars have totally doo dood all over the PJTV Going Away Party thread."
    I was just looking for a fun, new thread to hang out on is all.
    Where puppies were not being harmed in the process.

  7. 7
    EMPY says:

    51-49. What’s the auto recount number?

  8. 8
    jnfr says:

    Thanks for the links, Doug.

  9. 9
    demimondian says:

    I’m calling it for Tedisco on the strength of Saratoga County — Gillibrand took 53% of the vote there, but Murphy is only taking 43%.

  10. 10
    JL says:

    @Laura W: The NYTimes has an article today on the health value of potatoes. The recipe for Mashed Potatoes and Kale sounds like something you might enjoy. I’m not sure what wine would be appropriate though.

  11. 11
    MikeJ says:

    Tedisco lives a few blocks from Saratoga county in Schenectady county. He was however, an assemblyman representing Saratoga Co. for 26 years.

  12. 12
    MikeJ says:

    I’m calling it for Tedisco on the strength of Saratoga County—Gillibrand took 53% of the vote there, but Murphy is only taking 43%.

    Tedisco is only leading by 4,000 in Saratoga Co., which was the amount Gillibrand lost that county by. The overall total has Tedisco up by ~300.

  13. 13
    Laura W says:

    @JL: mmmmmmmm…mashed potatoes and kale (and garlic, ‘natch). Are you kidding me? Nirvana.
    As for wine pairing…"whatever you are in the mood for" is my motto. If you love your wine, love your food, and love the company you are in…all pairings work.

    Edit: speaking of potatoes, where is BOB tonight? I’m thinking he would appreciate your post. And maybe he’d even go find the link since I’m too lazy right now.

  14. 14
    DougJ says:

    Tedisco is only leading by 4,000 in Saratoga Co., which was the amount Gillibrand lost that county by.

    My CNN figures show Gillibrand losing winning Saratoga Co. by 4,000 votes.

  15. 15
    Jon says:

    @DougJ: Isn’t that what Mikej said?

  16. 16
    DougJ says:

    Isn’t that what Mikej said?

    I messed up strikes and italics. Gillibrand won the county, according to CNN.

  17. 17
    JL says:

    @Laura W: Recipes for Health

  18. 18
    Jaime says:

    Murphy by 150? Is anyone else seeing that? Because I’m not.

  19. 19
    JGabriel says:

    DougJ @ Top:

    Don’t be shocked if Tedisco wins on the strength of his popularity as an State Assemblyman.

    Hmm. A question:

    If Tedisco only wins by a few votes, say less than 150, can Murphy pull a Coleman and prevent Tedisco from being seated for 6 months? Because I’d really like to see the GOP try to criticize Murphy for that, given the egregiousness of Coleman’s tactics.

    .

  20. 20
    Jon says:

    @DougJ: Ah, no worries.

  21. 21
    Just Some Fuckhead says:

    Jesus, I’m starting to miss the Villager posts.

  22. 22
    DougJ says:

    If Tedisco only wins by a few votes, say less than 150, can Murphy pull a Coleman and prevent Tedisco from being seated for 6 months?

    No, all the recount stuff is pretty standard in NYS.

  23. 23
    JGabriel says:

    @DougJ:

    No, all the recount stuff is pretty standard in NYS.

    Oh well. Probably for the best. We’re overdosing on schadenfreude these days anyway – excepting the economy.

    .

  24. 24
    Litlebritdifrnt says:

    How dare you have a wine thread when I am drinking Heineken Lite. That is just not right.

  25. 25
    JL says:

    @DougJ: That’s what they thought in MN.

  26. 26
    Jon says:

    There are about 10k absentee ballots in this race, so this isn’t getting decided tonight.

  27. 27
    Dennis-SGMM says:

    This is good news for John McCain!

  28. 28
    NonWonderDog says:

    Now down to 30 votes? WHEEeeeee!!!

  29. 29
    Jon says:

    30 vote diff with 19 precincts left to count. Maybe they should merge this recount lawsuit with Coleman’s at the federal level lol

  30. 30
    Jaime says:

    Holy shit. They are now, literally, 30 votes apart.

  31. 31
    Jaime says:

    Oh good. Now I don’t have to see a stupid Politico headline tomorrow.

    Haha, who am I kidding, there will be one anyway.

  32. 32
    West of the Cascades says:

    Delaware has come in surprisingly strongly for Murphy.

  33. 33
    Jon says:

    Murphy up 300 with 3 precincts left.

  34. 34
    ploeg says:

    Shailagh Murray is already pushing for a re-vote.

    Not this time, with this race it’s going to be rock-paper-scissors.

  35. 35
    torrentprime says:

    Any valid reasons to think the absentees won’t skew Republican? Murphy only needs a handful over 50%, but I conventional wisdom used to hold that absentees go GOP, I believe (waiting for correction/hope).

  36. 36
    John Cole says:

    LOL 3 precincts in Saratoga left to “swing” it to Tedisco.

  37. 37
    DougJ says:

    Any valid reasons to think the absentees won’t skew Republican?

    I have no idea why, but the absentee/recanvas in NY-29 gained the Democrat something like 1500 votes.

  38. 38
    Jon says:

    80 votes with 1 precinct left! The drama! The drama!

  39. 39
    tagimaucia says:

    1 precinct left, murphy up by 81. wow.

  40. 40
    Comrade Mary, Would-Be Minion Of Bad Horse says:

    This thread needs some Smiths. And these guys, too. I blame kommrade reproductive vigor.

  41. 41
    Ash says:

    Oh joy, another election that will be dragged out for months. :|

  42. 42
    ploeg says:

    @Ash:

    Well you don’t want to be bored do you?

  43. 43
    torrentprime says:

    @DougJ:
    Excellent. That’s something to hang my hat on while we wait (not that I know the demo similarity between -29 and -20 :) ). Witnessing another GOP "should have been a walk" was enough for one day anyway.

  44. 44
    Comrade Mary, Would-Be Minion Of Bad Horse says:

    Ten thousand absentee votes? Oy.

  45. 45
    Jon says:

    @Ash: This one doesn’t really matter. The dems still have a commanding majority and really don’t need the vote.

  46. 46
    Ash says:

    @Jon: I know it doesn’t matter in the scheme of things really, it’s just annoying how damn hard it is to make a whole Congress.

  47. 47
    Jon says:

    @Ash: True, but it always seems like there some congressman dead, under indictment, kidnapped in Togo, locked up in a bondage room for 2 months straight, etc.

  48. 48
    Ed Marshall says:

    Yeah, it doesn’t matter, but the GOP boosters keep clutching at anything to believe that their rout is over. Witness the next right fantasizing about a Korean beating Nancy Pelosi based on Anh Joseph Cao beating out William "I keep bags of money in my freezer" Jefferson.

    I suppose you could almost wish for them to win, and entertain delusions about their newfound popularity, but I’m a petty person and want to see them wallowing in misery.

  49. 49
    torrentprime says:

    @Ed: Similarly, I thought the Dems should have voted against the bill outlawing the Fairness Doctrine simply to keep the bogeyman alive for the GOP. Not ever actually pass the damn thing; just keep the possibility around.

  50. 50
    Jon says:

    This last precinct is like Duyal County in Texas(bonus points if you get the reference).

  51. 51
    wasabi gasp says:

    Abnormal Guy Wins!

  52. 52
    Jon says:

    All precincts in: 65 vote "win" for Murphy.

  53. 53
    Micheline says:

    @Comrade Mary, Would-Be Minion Of Bad Horse: Excellent choice. Love the Smiths.

  54. 54
    imasmart says:

    @Jon:

    All precincts in: 65 vote "win" for Murphy.

    Of course since there was no sweeping win by the Dems, this means that all of the United States has resoundingly rejected Obama’s socialist agenda

  55. 55
    JL says:

    @imasmart: @imasmart: Good news for Michael Steele

  56. 56
    Andy K says:

    @Jon:

    "This last precinct is like Duyal County in Texas"

    That’s got something to do with LBJ and Monte Hall, right?

  57. 57
    shortstop says:

    @DougJ: That’s what they thought in MN

    MN election law is weird, though, in allowing the sore loser to appeal until the end of time while not certifying the winner. I kind of wonder if there’ll be a movement to change that after this fiasco.

  58. 58
    eric says:

    putting aside the stated spin from the GOP, this is a brutal outcome and confirms Obama’s strong position. Period. Were the public really souring on Obama, then this strong GOP district should have gone easily to Tedisco.

    So, this will increase internal pressures within the GOP and embolden Obama, regardless of what the talking heads want to fantasize about this race.

    Obama’s people always understood the "real" political dynamics at play during the primary and the general and never got "played" by the forced political conclusions of the MSM.

    Big, big win for Obama, no matter the real outcome.

    eric

  59. 59
  60. 60
    PaulW says:

    Reports that Katherine Harris is in New York state to assist with the eventual recount have neither been confirmed nor denied…

    With the Franken/Coleman fiasco in MN and now this, we Floridians can no longer feel embarrassed about the butterfly chad ballots. bwhahahahahaaaaa

  61. 61
    PaulW says:

    Oh one other thing: there’s still absentee and military ballots to count.

  62. 62
    DougJ says:

    Big, big win for Obama, no matter the real outcome.

    This race should not have been close. The fact that it could go either way is a real sign of the weakness of the Cantor-Steele strategy.

  63. 63

    When did Greenwald start posting on the front page?

  64. 64
    Bubblegum Tate says:

    Blogs for Victory is already blaming ACORN and demanding a recount. Awesome. Even more awesome? The stupid graphic at the top of the page is actually a link to a form to donate money to Teh Disco.

  65. 65
    DougJ says:

    When did Greenwald start posting on the front page?

    Ha!

  66. 66
    RememberNovember says:

    Saratoga luvs them some racin’..
    and it’s also the birthplace of the potato chip.

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