Liz Benjamin — one of the premier political reporters in NYS — has an interesting piece on the stakes of tomorrow’s special election in NY-20:
One GOP consultant who isn’t working on Tedisco’s camapign suggested this race could actually end up being a “perfect storm,” leading to calls for the ouster of party leaders all the way up the food chain.
On the line are local leaders like Saratoga County’s Jasper Nolan, an early champion of Tedisco and veteran chairman who has weathered several failed coup attempts; state Chairman Joe Mondello, who presided over the meeting at which the 10 county chairs picked Tedisco and was under fire even before the party’s historic loss of the state Senate majority last year; RNC’s Michael Steele, who was the first to suggest the 20th CD contest would be a bellweather of the national GOP’s ability to make a comeback.
Another interesting tidbit about the race: Sarah Palin is showing up alongside Bush and Rush in mailers being sent out by the Democratic party attacking the Republican candidate.
Colonel Danite
Dems should not use Palin in their mailings. What is some of the voters see starbursts and change their vote to Tedisco?
BDeevDad
But will it lead to a wingnuttier party of Limbaugh listeners only.
ThymeZoneThePlumber
If I were them, I’d include a shot of Pat "Isn’t That A Shame" Boone, too.
Tonal Crow
@BDeevDad: But since Limbaugh *is* the party leader, shouldn’t this herald a return to the less-insane Rockefeller GOP?
Incertus
So what happens if Tedisco manages to eke it out? As I understand it, this is a fairly conservative district, Gillibrand notwithstanding, and special elections are tough when the basics are against you, so while I’m hopeful about holding the seat, I won’t be completely surprised if it flips. If it does, do Steele and the rest get to keep their jobs?
The Moar You Know
Fixed for being more likely.
Dennis-SGMM
Absent the sudden closing of a mental hospital, how will they replace them?
Joshua Norton
Just in case they don’t already have the dead republican vote pretty much sewn up.
DougJ
He is the real leader of the GOP, IMHO.
Jay B.
Incertus,
If they win, I think that they’ll all crow about how it shows a resurgent GOP, completely misreading the situation (Tedisco should have romped) and the party will continue to Not Get It. On the other hand, they might lose, in which case there’s no upside for them.
Zifnab
@Jay B.:
There’s no known cure for Stage 4 Stupid. I question what will be produced from a truly epic bout of Republican soul searching. Will they actually come out championed by saner voices, or will they just overhaul their marketing department with people who aren’t completely incompetent.
DougJ
I think a narrow Tedisco win may be the worst outcome for Republicans, since it wouldn’t lead them to reconsider their nutty plan.
NonyNony
@Zifnab:
Hey – marketers can only do so much to sell a shitty product. A brilliant marketer can take a box of shit and convince someone that it’s candy – once or twice. But after buying box after box and getting only shit and no candy, even the God of Marketing isn’t going to be able to sell that box of shit again. There are limits.
LD50
Why now? Why didn’t the GOP respond this way to losing several Senate and House seats and a wipeout in the Presidential race?
Does this mean that if the GOP pulls this out, then November was just a fluke and they no longer need to change anything?
Dennis-SGMM
If Tedisco loses it will not be because of anything wrong with the Republican party. "Conservatism cannot fail, it can only be failed." He will be briefly criticized for neglecting to kiss enough Snowflake Babies or something and then forgotten as thoroughly as George W. Bush has been forgotten.
Punchy
I think if our Dem loses a nail-biter, he shud initiate a 6-pronged legal lawsuit before, during, and after the recount and re-recount.
Dennis-SGMM
This is the same party that, during the late Sixties, convinced itself that there was a Silent Majority that totally approved of everything that Nixon was doing.
Incertus
@DougJ:
And a narrow loss might make them think that the problem they’re having is with the people in charge as opposed to ideas. It sounds like a win-win.
Zifnab
@NonyNony:
I hope you’re right. I get the feeling that the future of the GOP rests heavily on the gullibility of the electorate at large.
Tonal Crow
@Dennis-SGMM: Yep. As conmunists everywhere say, "Conservatism has not failed. It has never been tried."
The Populist
Hey righties,
If you lose this one better chalk it up to your bizarre hate and obstruction of Obama. Face it, you should win this one. If the right leaning people of that part of the state don’t vote for you, you have some serious problems.
Maybe you need to go back in time and understand how Barry Goldwater did things. HE tried to work with Dems. Maybe you maroons should accept your banishment to the equivalent of bridge troll and stop bothering us normal Americans.
Sincerely,
A pissed off American who cares way more about this country than a stupid party line.
Joshua Norton
OT – only a little bit.
Did anyone happen to catch this gem on C-Span last night?
The future of conservatism and conservative magazines featuring Bill Kristol and Jonah Goldberg. The two people most responsible for bringing the whole mess crashing down. It ran for 90 minutes. It only seemed like an eternity.
TenguPhule
Great, we’re all doomed then.
The Populist
I LOVE that line. What the hell do these maroons call the Reagan years? Yep, deficit spending to the point where it intentionally keeps Dems from enacting social programs is real conservative.
Idiots.
TenguPhule
That’s 90 minutes more then I could stand.
Isn’t featuring both Assrockets on at the same time a violation of the Geneva Conventions or something?
someguy
I’m with you Populist. What NY needs to pull it out of its doldrums is more government spending, a la Keynes, and yep, that means probably higher taxes too, both coming from the fed and state levels. Not what the peepul want to hear based on the reaction to Patterson’s budget, but it’s what they need. Tedisco may also get hammered by the residual of the last election too, with people perceiving R = incumbent. Yeah, not accurate, but this is Upstate you’re talking about. That New Yorker cartoon wasn’t actually metaphorical about the left side of the Hudson.
gbear
Well if this NY election turns into a fiasco for the republicans, they can work on getting their mojo back by declaring WWIII on Al Franken’s senate seat. TX senator Cornyn wants to see this election battle take years to ‘resolve’.
That sounds like another totally winning republican strategy that will perk up everybody’s spirits if NY goes badly. What could possibly go wrong?
binzinerator
@Zifnab:
It has for as long as I can remember. Nothing new there. And although 2006 and 2008 seem to indicate the limit of eating boxes of shit have been reached for the majority of people, at least a third if not 40% of this nation are still happily munching away.
BenA
If Republicans win they will take it to mean Tedisco just was conservative enough and if the Republicans lose the election it will mean that Tedisco just wasn’t conservative enough.
So if he wins the entire Republican party will decide that they have to be more conservative and stick to their conservative roots…. and if he loses the entire Republican party will decide that they have to be more conservative and stick to their conservative roots.
gbear
Because the GOP was in denial then. Now they’re with it…
The Populist
What the hell happened to Michelle Bachmann’s whines of "freedom"? If Franken wins, denying his seat with countersuits is anti-freedom is it not?
Why do I feel like the smart guy in a room full of idiots sometimes? What the fuck happened to being able to think and do the right thing even if you disagree with the outcome?
If the right hate Franken, then take him down in 7 years you fucking pigs! So tying him up is not going help you in the future should we have another close Presidential election, right?
Al Gore and John Kerry both conceded when they should have fought. Nope, the right would cry and whine that these two are sore losers. Now we have Al Franken. Should he win this one, the right look like hypocrites.
It’s truly all about winning and keeping the status quo of deficits, destruction of the middle and working classes.
Fuck you right wingers (oh and hi Michelle, we know you visit here – bitch).
geg6
@Joshua Norton:
And today (well, really yesterday) we have the Freepers discussing whether or not women (and non-property owners) should have the right to vote:
http://www.norcalblogs.com/post_scripts/2009/03/womens_right_to_vote_the_1.html
Seems we women have ruined it all because we’re just too damn emotional!!!! (Excuse me while I weep copiously as I write and pay no attention to anything I’m saying while I emote.) And non-property owners are soc-ial-ists!!!!!
And if you want to see some serious self-hate, check out all the comments by the females (I assume) there. Some really crazed stuff. I mean, frighteningly insane.
On topic, I read something this weekend (can’t remember where or I’d find a link) by someone who worked on Gillibrand’s last campaign. And I got the sense that the district has had a bit of an ideological change and that’s what got Gillibrand in. Yes, it’s quite…well, let’s call it Blue Dog, not conservative, still. But they are quite well aware of who Murphy is and what he stands for. Murphy, himself, doesn’t and hasn’t hidden his more progressive (than most of them, anyway) bona fides at all throughout this campaign. And he keeps pulling ahead. In addition, apparently Obama polls well there and has high positive numbers in the district. And Tadisco’s played his hand very, very, very badly.
I assert that unless Tadisco wins in a huge blowout, this is a loser for the GOP. A very small margin of victory in what should have been an easy pick is not something they can crow about. And a loss is absolutely devastating.
Comrade General Stuck
It will mean the first thing wingnuts have had to celebrate in a long time. Look for many tea parties and Palin Starburst Parades with calls for Tedisco’s mug to adorn the Three Dollar Bill.
The Populist
I hope they try it or bring this out into the national debate. Abortion will never win over many people but to sit here and debate a woman’s right to vote?
Wowsers. I hope they are dumb enough to do it. What normal thinking person would even QUESTION a woman’s right to participate in a right that should never be denied to any citizen of this country?
SLKRR
@geg6:
Wow, that is some medicinal-grade wingnut in that post. I think the best part is how the guy can’t even spell Reagan’s name right! Proper spelling must be for chicks, or something like that.
Tonal Crow
@The Populist: I don’t understand why Rush isn’t on this. I think he’s going soc ialist.
2th&nayle
@BenA: I’ll admit I was somewhat nonplused as to the possible ramifications of this election, as regards the future of the Republican party in NY. But thanks to your analysis, it’s so simple, I’m left wondering why I didn’t see that myself. Thanks, Ben.
jibeaux
Well, Sarah Palin AND Bush AND Rush may be just a teensy bit ham-handed, but screw ’em. I find I can justify a lot of things to myself with "if you were really a reasonable person for whom I would consider voting, you wouldn’t be willing to put that "-R" after your name. QED."
Like if I lived in Rhode Island, Lincoln Chafee seems reasonable, but I would’ve voted against his ass anyway. Now he’s pondering a run again as an independent, and you’ve got my attention again! Sure, send me your campaign materials.
chuck
So basically what that’s saying is that everyone labelled conservative is a failure. Every last one. Or that none of them are competent enough. And that the American people never wanted it.
Okay.
LD50
I’m sure the people of Minnesota will be *thrilled* to hear that some douchebag from Texas kept them from having two senators for six years.
LD50
Anyone else remember "Future is Cao"? Good times.
Cris
Senator McCain, would you like to see Sarah Palin become president? (via)
GSD
I am sure one result won’t be a cavalcade of mainstream media Twitteratti lining up to call on the GOP to Sister Souljah Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck and the rest of the rightwing militia-fringe media.
-GSD
LD50
No, I think they’re saying that we’ve never been able have Pure Conservatism, because the libs, wimmen voters, and homos thwarted it.
You know, kind of like how a certain German dictator of the 1940s blamed his country’s misfortunes (and loss of a war) 100% on a certain non-Christian group. Can’t have been flaws in their plan.
Chuck Butcher
I haven’t followed the campaign rhetoric closely enough to make real definite statements, but Tedisco aped the R House on the stimulus and has pretty much followed the House R’s stances as far as I can tell. Without Obama or other General Election candidates on the ballot there will be a harsh statement to Republicans with either a loss or a narrow win. No matter how narrow a win will result in public posturing, but in private I’m not so sure. I’m not sure how NY Republican Party would take a loss, I’m pretty sure the national party would take it as a failure of being conservative enough and media bias. State parties can be more agile than nationals, but they also can be more reactionary.
Following 04 there were pushes in DPO (OR) to go harder left and considerably harder than the nation. It took some work to keep that from happening, the RPO has gone harder right with losses piling up the more right and partisan they’ve become – and they seem to have learned little.
If mimicing the House R stance doesn’t get a win I wouldn’t be surprised to see the House and Senate go farther right and the rhetoric amp up more.
Person of Choler
The Democrats mentioned Palin, Bush, and Limbaugh in their mailing, but they forgot Machiavelli, Beelzebub, Lucrezia Borgia, Vlad the Impaler, and Herbert Hoover.
Or perhaps they are saving the unmentioned ones for the 2010 campaigns.
Mike in NC
I am not familiar with that name. What was his claim to fame? Did he own a sports team or something?
The wingnut answer to Abbott & Costello.
jibeaux
@Person of Choler:
Eh, no need to go so far back, these guys virtually pour out of clown cars. Competition is tight, but I’m gonna have to go with Bachmann as Rising Wingnut Star To Watch. Prominently featured on the GOP website? Check. Probably sets off starbursts in the heads of sad, sad, lonely men? Check. Crazier’n all hell? Check. No fucking idea what she’s talking about? Check. All she needs is to carry around a flag of an eagle high-fiving Jesus, and she’s a straight shooter with upper management written all over her.
gbear
I know this will sound selfish, but PLEASE let Tedisco’s loss be narrow enough to lure all of the election lawyers OUT OF MN! I’m begging…
Cain
@Chuck Butcher:
Thank FSM for that. Karen Minnis was a disaster as speaker. The whole "return the kicker" stuff was so worthless and when the downfall came as we know it woud we had no money in state coffers and ended working hand to mouth. Stupid. Stupid. Stupid. i saw that a mile off. They deserved to be booted out of power. wankers.
I especiallyi am still sore at them for crying their crocodile tears about "small businesses" when TriMet Max was proposed for the west side. I wanted a goddam express from the west side to the downtown.
[/me takes big calming breathes]
cain
NOT OBAMA
Funny stuff to read in here. Conservatives across the country should read the posts here – funnier than Comedy Central. What a joke!
You can’t fix stupid – but you do have to live next door to it.
Scruffy McSnufflepuss
@geg6:
I call spoof. It’s been done before.
jibeaux
O/T but this amused me.
Romney in 2012: Now With 50% Fewer Houses, and We’re Working on That Vast Empty Whistling Wasteland That Is His Hollow Soul, Too.
I’m really into caps today, it seems. Sorry.
The Moar You Know
@binzinerator: 2008 is proof that 47.5 percent of this nation will tear off the top of a box of shit, clearly labeled as BOX OF SHIT, pour it into a bowl and chow down like it’s a bowl of Wheaties and they’re a starving child in the Sudan.
You’ll pardon me for not having a lot of faith in the electorate.
Ash Can
@Mike in NC:
I just spotted a blurb that he’s going to be throwing out the first pitch for the Rangers’ home opener. I wonder if the fans will boo his ass (again).
The Moar You Know
@Person of Choler: Your butthurt brings a smile to my face. Gosh, let’s see who else could be on the GOP Greatest Hits list:
Dick Cheney – a proven vote-getter.
Tom DeLay – BUGMAN
Abramamoff – well, we don’t talk about him, just a little corruption is all.
Hey, you got some real depth to the field, dontcha? Here’s more:
John McCain, because Republicans love winners. Oh wait.
Larry Craig – givin’ public restrooms a bad name.
Bobby Jindal – his exorcisms speak for themselves.
Michael Steele – a flock of Oreos.
How about those one-hit wonders?
Ken Lay – who?
Scooter Libby – convicted, commuted, SOLD OUT BY GW HISSELF.
And there are so many more. You know what the real problem is going to be, Person of Choler? It’s going to be HOW TO FIT THEM ALL ON ONE FLIER.
NonWonderDog
Heh, apparently Glenn Beck saw Twilight over the weekend, and he liked it so much that he spent the first five minutes of his show on a ridiculous extended metaphor about Washington lawmakers as 19 year old celibate vampires. Complete with pictures.
I’m not sure that can be parodied.
Tonal Crow
@NonWonderDog: The GOP ought to know about vampires: their primary occupation is sucking the life from our body politic.
Chuck Butcher
@Cain:
I am well left of most politicians I know of, but I also am a poltical realist which means taking what can be gotten. Some things are not being addressed either in OR or nationally and the big one is the disparity of wealth and I see nothing happening on that front at any time. Not happy making.
As Speaker, Jeff Merkley was well left of any Republican but he treated them with respect and consideration and got the benefits of it. There is something to be said for that.
Michael
You’ve got to be kidding. I got stuck weekend before last – I have teen daughters. I had way too much devil water to drink, made "eating a bullet" gestures, tried to strangle myself and was a general nuisance. They yelled at me, a lot.
No man could watch that crap and conclude anything other than the idea self-pitying teen angst annoys the shit out of them.
AhabTDefenestrator
@Michael: Thank god one only has to be a teenager once!
CalD
I ran across an interesting article on the Palin thing on Greg Sargent’s blog (via PoliticalWire).
…………….
James Carville, a key architect of the Limbaugh strategy, says Dems will be seeking to elevate Palin more and more, because she’s “an identifiable person who has a hook,” unlike GOP leaders like Eric Cantor and Mitch McConnell.
“Her name conjures up all kinds of reactions in people’s minds,” Carville told me, adding that her association with the campaign will be used to portray the GOP as hidebound and to alienate moderates. “She’s an uncomfortable figure for a lot of Republicans,” Carville says. “They want to move beyond her. We like her.”
“Luckily, she seems to present us with an opportunity every few days,” added a senior Dem strategist. “You could say it’s a turkey shoot.”
…………….
I love it.
AnneLaurie
Thank you for noting that article, Jibeaux:
Translation: Romney, after severing all ties with the unfortunates who’ve actually had to live with his dim-witted policies (those of us in Massachusetts & Utah), is paying Mary ‘the GOP’s Mark Penn’ Matalin to sell him to the remnants of the Sullen Idiot Party as an expensive hairdo with a strong record of scavenging big money out of the wreckage of peoples’ lives. Yay, Willard!
TenguPhule
Promote this strategist immediately.
TenguPhule
Which was probably still more entertaining then the movie.
phillip anderson
I think one of the first casualties may be GOP state chair Joe Mondello. One of his closest allies seems to be, shall we say, slowly backing away…
burnspbesq
@Dennis-SGMM:
Umm, they were right about that. Or have you forgotten 1972?