The Goldberg Theorem, defined.
President Obama, yesterday:
“What I am looking for is not the day-to-day gyrations of the stock market … but the long-term,” Obama told reporters.
“The stock market is sort of like a tracking poll in politics,” said the president, whose own public job approval has been running at about two-thirds in the Gallup Poll’s daily tracking surveys. “It bobs up and down every day. … If you spend your time worrying about that, you’re probably going to get the long-term strategy wrong.’
Renowned economist and market analyst Jonah Goldberg, a little bit ago:
If The Budget Bill Fails
How will the Obama administration explain a stock market rally in response?
One of these two people has the right approach. One of them is an idiot.
Genine
Um… is it Goldberg? Do I win anything?
valdivia
but but the market rallied today so does that mean Obama is over? /snark/
Martin
It’s nice having a president that has an attention span longer than that of the average 2 year-old.
The talking heads seem to be missing what I think is the point on the whole Rush call-out. I don’t think Obama is looking for battles, but for ways to avoid them. He has big policy plans, and those things are won in odd ways. Only 3 Republicans were willing to put politics aside and deal in good faith on the stimulus. What does that portend for the budget, for health care, and so on? Obama is blowing the GOP their opportunity to sit back and say ‘no’ by building a ‘fail’ narrative to hang on them and getting it shoved into the nightly news.
Budget bill will pass handily.
calipygian
I guarantee that Jonah Goldberg is so stupid that even after Obama taps his phone, declares him an enemy combatant because Jonah’s fatuousness is a danger to the Republic and throws him in Charleston Naval Brig without charges and shuts down the National Review for being a sedition nest of America haters, Jonah would still be stupid enough not to connect the dots to the Yoo memos.
Are we REALLY still paying attention to those morons on the Corner? I mean really – here is a guy who is too cowardly to join the Army to help throw a crappy country against the wall (other priorities like complaining about how fat his own ass was) and who got his start in journalism by enabling his mommies obsession with what Bill Clinton did with his cock. Go back and review Jonah’s actions during the impeachment, it’s like he was jealous that Bill Clinton wasn’t fucking his mom.
Fuck Jonah. Seriously. He’s a pilenoidal cyst on Rush Limbaugh’s ass.
Svensker
Hey, we have snow on the ground in MARCH. Global warming is an obvious left wing canard.
What’s my prize?
John Cole
I read it to see if Derbyshire has said anything that will send them into fits of apoplexy or to see what K-Lo is doing. She really is one of the funniest people on the internet. She doesn’t mean to be, but she is.
cyntax
@Martin:
Fixed.
calipygian
Derb – He’s the chronic alcoholic of wingnuts: stupidly drunk 99 percent of the time with moments of clarity that almost make him seem redeemable.
Then he starts looking for Obama’s birth certificate again.
Comrade Jake
I’m not a huge Greenwald fan, but he nailed Jonah here:
Perfect.
cyntax
@Svensker:
In better economic times?
A gig at the Cato Institute.
=)
Chris Andersen
The Dow rallied today. Does that mean Obama’s little pep-talk worked?
(Of course not. But people who believe Obama’s actions are bringing down the market should be as willing to say that his actions might bring it up.)
Comrade Stuck
Given that it can’t be filibustered and only one dem opposes it thus far, Sen Bayh, I seriously doubt it will fail. Pantload’s needs to study some more.
calipygian
Every time Doughy Pantload is mentioned, I must mention the time he told Katrina victims to grow gills.
What a fucking douchebag. Seriously.
Dennis-SGMM
Considering Obama’s proposed limits on charitable giving, Cato Institute and the rest of the "non-profit" wingnut welfare mills may have to start tightening up.
cyntax
@Dennis-SGMM:
Oh, they definitely have… the poor, poor dearys.
r€nato
the enduring image I will always have of Jonah Goldberg, is from one of those weekend pundit shows on CNN which I saw in 2000. Goldberg sneered – I mean, he literally sneered – "we don’t need compassionate conservatives; what we need are more cruel conservatives."
I can’t fathom why the GOP is about as popular as a case of the clap.
gbear
@Comrade Stuck:
Isn’t there a group of about 14 dem senators that has ‘issues’ with the amount of spending? They may try to concern-troll the budget bill. I don’t think Obama’s home free yet.
Aqualad08
Don’t insult the clap like that…not only is there a cure for it, but chances are you had fun getting there…
You can’t say either about the current state of the GOP…
Ricky Bobby
Yeah, because when I am set to throw big money around on the stock market I always check CNN opinion polls on Obama before I call my broker.
/facepalm
Martin
Dow rallies are thanks to an unfettered free market. Dow plunges are due to how Obama waved to the press corps before stepping on Marine One.
Ned R.
@John Cole:
Indeed. A recent gem:
When I shared this wisdom with people elsewhere, I appended this to the conclusion.
Paul L.
Remember when the stock market was important to progressives.
r€nato
oh, I know a cure for Republicanism… losing 1/2 or more of your 401(k) since last fall, especially if you were thinking of retiring sometime in the next 5 years.
Max
As hypothetical questions go, this one is right up there with "What will you libs do when they find the WMD in Iraq?"
Martin
Yes, during a comedy skit. It’s also when we care about cowbells and dicks in boxes.
You had a point? Oh, right, of course you didn’t…
calipygian
More K-Lo on Rush:
Rush = Struggle with addiction.
Anyone else = A dirty liberal who made a poor life choice and should rot in jail if they abuse drugs, especially if they have a skin tone darker than Rush.
And what the fuck does Rush’s palace and love of golf have to do with anything? Its almost like K-Lo really couldn’t find anything nice to say about him: "Yeah he’s a drug addict, but he loves golf and has a castle". !?!?!?!?!
To quote Henry Hill in Goodfellas, "She IS a funny guy!"
Dennis-SGMM
Thanks to the miracle of Bushenomics, many Americans have had their financial lives simplified: they need only choose between buying food or paying their medical bills.
Comrade Stuck
@gbear:
There may be, but I doubt they will vote against it. At least enough of them to kill the bill. Senator Bayh however has come out four square against it. Some of their concerns may be taken care of with amendments. Although they defeated one today to strip out some earmarks. I suspect they are doing some ass covering by grumbling some privately.
gbear
Well the thing is, no one who plays golf could possibly be involved in off-shore sex trade while carrying enough erektile dysfonction drugs for a small army. Golf is good.
TR
Wait, he’s up for re-election already? My, my, how time flies.
JasonF
@Chris Andersen:
My right-wing friends were very quick to attribute today’s Dow rally to China’s announcement of the second phase of its stimulus plan, and very quick to disclaim any connection to President Obama announcing the details of his mortgage relief program.
The fun thing about the markets is that nobody can really explain what causes them to move on a day-to-day basis, so any given day’s movement can be fit neatly into whatever preconceived half-baked theory someone might want to justify.
JasonF
I forgot that this blog has …. idiosyncratic ways of treating multi-paragraph block quotes, and for some reason I don’t have permission to edit my own comment, so let’s pretend that the parenthetical statement in Post #31 is inside the block quote and properly attributed to Chris Andersen, just like I intended it to be.
John Cole
@JasonF: I attributed it to shitty employment numbers, which always seem to thrill Wall Street.
Regardless, the point remains- no matter what the market rallies around on a day to day basis, it really does not matter what happens on any given day whether or not the country is fundamentally strong.
AhabTRuler
Given all the talk of soc ialism and drugs for limp dicks, does that mean that the Republican party IS Spam
jcricket
John’s right – but doesn’t it sicken you to think about that? Wall Street cheers 600,000 people being let go last week/month. Whee! Something’s broken when the "shareholders" are now not apparently employed by any companies. Nor do they apparently have any concern for consumers long-term well being (which you think they would be, given that consumer spending is 70% of GDP).
I’m paraphrasing here, but the quote is: "In the short term the stock market is a weather-vane. In the long-run, it’s a scale".
The reason it’s falling right now (or can’t sustain a rally) is because the economy is terrible and no one is certain when the terrible news will end and no one is certain where the government intervention will end/lead us.
I do love reading the yahoo news headline/mad-lib generator where they pick one of a hundred reasons why the market supposedly decided to go up or down today.
jcricket
Here’s the quote I was looking for:, from Benjamin Graham
c u n d gulag
OOOH! OOOH!!!
Mr. Kotter, can I venture a guess as to who’s wrong?
Uhm… Uhm… Uhm…
"Alex, who is the Jonah who is too fat to be swallowed by a whale?"
A WINNER!!!
joe from Lowell
He won’t "explain" it, numbnuts. He’ll go about his business, and everybody will forget your blog post 48 hours later.
KRK
@John Cole:
I wish there were a blog devoted to "monitoring" K-Lo, along the lines of Instaputz or Fire Megan McArdle. I feel certain it would become a favorite read.
Mike
K-Lo is the Joe DiMaggio of saying something jaw-droppingly stupid. No one will ever approach her streak.
war_2
I wonder if the Dow hits 4000 2 months from now , will Obama still be talking about "bobbing up and down" ?
At some point he will have to take ownership of this mess , I mean he knew what he was gettting into.
Rick Taylor
@Paul L.:
Uhhhh, Will Ferrell is a comedian. He is making jokes. Jonah Goldberg is presumably writing material meant to be taken seriously. I understand the difference is subtle and tricky, but if you want to write a cutting take down, you’ll want to quote some progressive blaming Bush for the daily gyrations of the stock market, rather than a comedian doing a comedy act.
CalD
When I saw "the Goldberg Theorem," I thought you meant Rube Goldberg…
I wasn’t far from right, of course.