Why I Think Georgia is Worth Watching

Jim Martin outrasied Saxby Chambliss last quarter.

Upstart Democratic Senate challenger Jim Martin raised more money than Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss in the most recent three-month period, according to finance reports filed this week.

In by far his best fundraising haul of the campaign, Martin took in more than $1.3 million from July through the end of September. Chambliss took in $1.1 million.

The silver lining for Chambliss is that Martin spent almost all of his money and had just $92,340 in the bank heading into the final month of the campaign. Chambliss had about $1.2 million in his treasury.

Those ads are working. I really believe Georgia is in play. People in my home state love Republicans. They do NOT like McCain. I think Jim Martin is going to win. Senate +1.






50 replies
  1. 1
    gbear says:

    Senate +1

    The Senate is out drinking tonight?

    I blame Obama.

  2. 2
    Ed Marshall says:

    I think watching the TED spread is a good surrogate for Georgia going to Obama.

    As it climbs, you watch Obama’s chances of winning the whole nation as a slate (maybe minus OK and UT). If it moves that way, Obama will also be ruling over a nation of people eating sawdust bread baked over fires in garbage cans.

  3. 3
  4. 4
    donovong says:

    The good news for Martin is the fact that the DNC is throwing a ton of $$$ into the GA market on Martin’s behalf. Life preserver, anybody?

  5. 5
    flitterbic says:

    I do hope you’re right. My Congressman will no doubt remain the cretinous, Tom Price, but it would be offset somewhat if that insipid, do-nothing, bible-thumping Chambliss were sent back to whatever fundamentalist rock he crawled out from under.

  6. 6

    Good for the DNC. They SHOULD be doing that. Obama has enough $$. The Senate races are more important anyway. I’m trilled Obama is winning; I’m more thrilled to see Republican Senators collapse.

  7. 7
    Comrade Stuck says:

    I think watching the TED spread is a good surrogate for Georgia going to Obama.

    If Georgia goes to Obama it will mean that God is awake and paying attention. We can expect to see Fried Chicken, and a passel of Tubesteak raining from the sky. And right after that, George Bush will report to Federal Prison with his toothbrush.

  8. 8
    Ed Marshall says:

    I wasn’t trying to beat on Obama. I’ve met him a couple times at fund raisers, back when he was in the Illinois legislature. He *might* recognize me if he saw me, if only because he’s a good pol and doesn’t forget faces. I volunteered for his Senate campaign, and if I wasn’t a bit too busy to head out of state I’d work for his presidential campaign somewhere outside Illinois where it’s just pointless.

    I’ve got a great-aunt from Arkansas, old, hasn’t ever cut her hair, pentecostal holy roller. Back in the Spring, this is what she said about Obama "Well, first off, he’s a moooooooslim and he might be workin’ for them. Second off….He’s a nigger and I ain’t voting for one of them either."

    She’s now an Obama voter. She hasn’t changed her mind about the Muslim or the Nigger part. She’s just that crap-her-pants freaked about living through another depression.

    I’m just extrapolating that anecdote out to imagining Obama winning Georgia.

  9. 9

    She’s now an Obama voter. She hasn’t changed her mind about the Muslim or the Nigger part. She’s just that crap-her-pants freaked about living through another depression.

    As much as I deplore her opinions on race, I’ll take that vote.

    Right now, I don’t care whose votes we get, as long as we get them.

  10. 10
    gaucho says:

    Speaking of Georgia, it might be an interesting (albeit small) sideshow to see how high Bob Barr gets. I’ve heard various rumors about him making a surprisingly strong showing in his home state.

  11. 11

    @gaucho: People in Georgia don’t like Bob Barr as much as you might think – especially now that hes in the Libertarian camp. I don’t think he’ll be a factor in the GA race. Maybe 1-4%.

    Although, you know 1-4% could make a difference, so I don’t know.

  12. 12
    oh really says:

    Temporary diversion: WaPo endorses Obama.

  13. 13
    Jay says:

    Is Cleland working very aggressively for Martin? Both, after all, are Vets…

  14. 14
    Comrade Jake says:

    Sox rally from a ridiculous deficit to beat the Rays in the bottom of the ninth.

  15. 15
    Martin says:

    Martin won’t win GA on dollars, he’ll win it when Obama brings his ground game there and drags every fucking Democrat in the state to the polls.

  16. 16
    tavella says:

    Is Cleland working very aggressively for Martin? Both, after all, are Vets…

    Got an email from him via Kerry’s email list today, asking for contributions to Martin, as well as Markey and Lunsford. Tossed a little cash their way, in the name of a bigger Dem majority and that damn evil race against Cleland.

    And if you have a little extra money, or you are maxed on federal contributions, think about contributing to No on 8. They have a million dollar matching contribution running until Sunday. Electing Obama and getting to 60 in the Senate may be ways 1 and 2 of telling the right wing that their time is done, but I think affirming the civil rights of gays to marry in California is 3. Even $50 will get them $100.

  17. 17
    bago says:

    Regarding youtube.

    Read this one.

  18. 18
    dianne says:

    We just drove across country – saw no bumper stickers till we reached NM, then a few for McCain.The bumper stickers were all McCain through the South till we got to the coast of Fla, then most were Obama, on up to Savannah, Obama, into NC, Obama, through Tenn, Obama. The yard signs were swingling wildly from one to the other, though, according to
    the prosperity of the neighborhoods except for coastal Fla and they were mostly Obama. The more rural the area, the more likely to be McCain.
    We stayed firmly off the subject of politics with all of our red state friends and relatives. They are all crying the blues over their stocks and 401ks and see no relationship between their president and the current state of their affairs. Just an unfortunate coincidence,I suppose.
    We wiill be home in a few days back to our blue state of Ca. among our own kind. Can’t wait.

  19. 19
    burnspbesq says:

    I am seeing far too many "Yes on 8" bumper stickers for my liking, even adjusting for the fact that this is OC.

    And the "Yes on 11" TV and radio ads just might be the most misleading ads EVER run for a ballot initiative in the 23 years I have lived in SoCal.

  20. 20
    Eric U. says:

    Joe the plumber is probably not too happy right now:

    He started an apprenticeship program but didn’t finish. He couldn’t run the business without hiring licensed plumbers, and the licensed plumbers don’t need him.

    But I think more to the point, he’s never going to make 250K in a year, unless there is hyperinflation.

  21. 21
    Pooh says:

    Speaking of Georgia, it might be an interesting (albeit small) sideshow to see how high Bob Barr gets. I’ve heard various rumors about him making a surprisingly strong showing in his home state.

    He is taking that libertarian thing seriously then.

    HEYOOO…

  22. 22
    Brian J says:

    Like I said earlier, Candy Crowley on CNN said that Obama is moving staff back to Georgia and, supposedly, North Dakota. He’s also placing some staff in West Virgina and Kentucky! My guess is the move into Kentucky is to help Lunsford against McConnell, but perhaps there’s data for that state as well as for Georgia, North Dakota, and West Virginia that says all four are legitimately in play. And if that’s the case, things have to be going horribly for the Republicans. I really, really hope that we hear more about this, because I think instead of making the Democratic base complacent, it’ll fan the flames of their excitement.

  23. 23
    Brian J says:

    Good for the DNC. They SHOULD be doing that. Obama has enough $$. The Senate races are more important anyway.

    It also helps that the Republican Senate committee abandoned Louisiana earlier this week.

  24. 24
    MR Bill says:

    Bob Barr is not particularly popular, as he can be a total jerk in person. And there is the disconnect between his former self and the Libertarian Barr…If he breaks 4% I’d be shocked.
    And Martin’s commercials are killer, a animated blackboard giving a explanation of the financial meltdown, and Saxby’s part in it, that ends with pulling out to a live shot of Jim erasing the board and calling for a clean sweep in Washington. There is also one that uses Chambliss’ introduction of flat tax legislation to flatten him saying "he wanted to raise sales taxes 23% across the board" (which is true)…Chambliss’ campaign ads are generic and say "contact me and tell me what you think", which, if you had written the bastard on stuff like FISA or the War (as I have) you would have gotten a generic blowoff "Senator Chambliss supports the President when he says the Telephone Companies need protection from lawsuits arising from National Intelligence cooperation…."

  25. 25
    Conservatively Liberal says:

    Kathleen Parker defends Christopher Buckley and says that the Republican party has been taken over by the "kooks". Expect more foaming from the collective mouth of the rabid right this morning.

    I will order my wingnut with extra froth this morning. Why? That’s just the kind of elitist I am.

    Parker: Republicans are not short on brainpower — or pride — but they have strayed off course. They do not, in fact, deserve to win this time, and someone had to remind them why.

    Ouch.

    Linky

  26. 26
    Mort says:

    I voted in Atlanta on Oct 6 – huge line. A week later I had to go back to the same location for license issues and it was still busy.

    Some interesting observations – I see a lot of Martin bumper stickers, a lot of Obama stickers, but not too many cases where folks have opted for both. While Martin will definitely try to ride in on Obama’s coattails and makes no secret about supporting him, I wonder if he has a substantial amount of support here that will vote for him but not Obama. It usually seems like Martin does better in the polls here than Obama, which strikes me as odd.

    Re: Barr, I know four very staunch conservatives who will vote for him. They’re all Neil Boortz type conservatives (a local Repub/Libertarian radio talk show host). One is an anti-bailout nutter (sorry), and the other three don’t like social cons.

  27. 27

    @Eric U.: In other words, he’s perfect for a job in Bush’s cabinet.

  28. 28
    Ash Can says:

    Kathleen Parker + one big, fresh, piping hot mug of Wake the Hell Up = this country taking one more step in the direction of rational political discourse.

  29. 29

    @tavella: And if you have a little extra money, or you are maxed on federal contributions, think about contributing to No on 8. They have a million dollar matching contribution running until Sunday. Electing Obama and getting to 60 in the Senate may be ways 1 and 2 of telling the right wing that their time is done, but I think affirming the civil rights of gays to marry in California is 3. Even $50 will get them $100.

    And if you have a few bucks left over after that, Florida could use a hand beating back the latest gay hatred amendment as well. We only have to hit 40% to beat it, but it’s likely to be tight.

  30. 30

    Chambliss is so repellent, I donated money to Martin’s campaign and I don’t have much to spread around. Send him a few bucks if you can!

  31. 31
    donovong says:

    Early voting stats from Georgia, as of today – good news!

    Top 5 Counties in turn out:

    1. Dekalb: 59,581
    2. Fulton: 42,579
    3. Gwinnett: 32,263
    4. Cobb: 29,871

    total turnout to date – 585,400

    total African American & Latino – 215,600

    % AA and L – 36.8% !!

  32. 32
    Original Lee says:

    I suspect Barr will do much better nationally than we thought a month ago. I have 2 coworkers who are Republicans of the fiscal conservative brand, and they have both indicated that they are voting Barr because they will NOT vote for a Democrat, ever, plus they hate McCain with the heat of a thousand blazing suns for being so mavericky and for caving to the Religious Right.

    I suspect that in some areas the polling is showing Obama ahead of McCain because the polls are not including Barr as a choice.

  33. 33
    Dennis - SGMM says:

    WaPo has a good article on the race; McCain Forced to Fight for Virginia.

    By every organizational measure, Obama’s campaign appears to have the advantage — it has nearly three times as many offices, has contacted tens of thousands more potential supporters, and has helped register nearly half a million new voters this year, most of whom state officials believe favor the Democrat.

    The results in Georgia look to be a vindication of Howard Dean and a repudiation of the DNC’s old strategy of "It’s a Red State so let’s give up in advance."

  34. 34
    Blurm says:

    That there poll looks like a WANG!

  35. 35
    MR Bill says:

    That there poll looks like a WANG!

    My unscientific sample wildly disagrees with your assertion Blurm.

    And donovong @30, my rural county has had early voting since the last week in September. I went Wednesday, and there was a short line. The elections’ board lady (a neighbor, and one of my daughter’s friend’s mom) says there has been a steady stream and they are projecting as much as 30% of Fannin Co. will early vote.

  36. 36
    donovong says:

    @ Mr Bill: Here in Cobb, the wait was 1 hour at 2:00 on Wednesday – the poll workers said that the wait had been that long nearly all day, every day since early voting started.

    18 days and counting……

  37. 37
    SamFromUtah says:

    @MR Bill: My unscientific sample wildly disagrees with your assertion Blurm.

    I think Blurm means that the graph resembles the same thing that Hastert’s old district resembles.

  38. 38
    MR Bill says:

    @ SamFromUtah: another case of electile dysfunction, eh?

  39. 39
    Sister Machine Gun of Mild Harmony says:

    I know lots of people in Georgia are switching from Repub to Demo this year because of W’s disasters and this wreck of an economy. That is awesome! I’ve been waiting for Georgia to get more blue. I figured, between all the Repub disasters and the steady stream of yankees moving to Atlanta, it has to happen eventually.

  40. 40
    emma says:

    I hope Martin wins. I’m still angry about what they did to a real war hero, Max Cleland in 2002. That evil, dirty campaign alone is enough to hate the Rethugs forever. Support the troops my ass.

  41. 41
    jcricket says:

    Martin needs an ad like the one for Udall – only attacking Chambliss for his smearing of Cleland. You know Republicans would put up something 10x as sleazy as that (they probably are), so run with it.

    And if they smear us with "guilt by association", start putting actual quotes from their friends (Liddy, AIP, Rev Moon, etc.) on the air. We have the facts on our side, so let’s not be afraid to hammer them with it.

    Burner outraised Reichert too, which is shocking to me (although I did give $100). We have a real chance of picking up enough seats in the house and senate to give a "real" Democratic majority to Obama.

    And you know, I’m fine if the "Blue Dogs" temper some spending programs and provide fiscal sanity, as long as that doesn’t just mean rejecting every spending increase out of hand. PAYGO works "both ways". As long as it’s associated with a tax increase, or a spending decrease in another area, the federal government should be spending money on programs that stimulate the economy, provide a social safety net during major recessions (and in general), etc. We’ve chronically underfunded infrastructure, social works and our entitlement programs – but it’s not unfixable.

    Let’s stop spreading the wealth the rich through regressive taxation and simply return to a progressive tax system. Budget will move towards balance, deficits will disappear and programs will have money.

    BTW – If the Blue Dogs were representative of most Republicans, I’d be all for having a true opposition party.

  42. 42
    SamFromUtah says:

    @MR Bill: another case of electile dysfunction, eh?

    Hee hee – IL-14 is looking a bit saggy.

  43. 43
    jcricket says:

    BTW – If the Blue Dogs were representative of most Republicans, I’d be all for having a true opposition party.

    By this I meant if the Republicans acted like Blue Dog Democrats (instead of reactionary Birchers) and/or if the Blue Dogs switched parties, they’d be a fine opposition party

  44. 44
    SGEW says:

    If the Blue Dogs were representative of most Republicans, I’d be all for having a true opposition party.

    Wouldn’t that be great? I’m earnestly looking forward to having opposition parties that have principled and reasonable stances on serious issues. A "free trade" party that makes a huge deal about, say, ethanol subsidies, or particular trade deals. A "fiscal responsibility" party that pushes balanced budgets and PAYGO ideals. An "anti-earmark" party that pounds on pork (John McCain could be their candidate). Etc. (and this is just looking to the "right" of Obama: add to this list environmentalists, gay rights advocates, anti-death penalty candidates, etc.). These parties could then make deals on particular bills, support each others’ policies on specific issues, form consensus legislation, and . . . .

    Oh wait. I just described a parliamentary system. Never mind.

  45. 45
    Zuzu's Petals says:

    @emma:

    Theresa Heinz Kerry said that’s what drove her to change from Republican to Dem.

  46. 46
    Shaggy says:

    I received an e-mail from Cleland asking for support of Jim Martin this morning. Turnout at the North Georgia Dem rally about a month ago was good, in my opinion. I am seeing very few Chambliss yard signs in my area (can we use this as a metric?), so I am hopeful.

    Jesus, I don’t believe in you, but I am asking you to believe in Jim Martin.

    I hate Chambliss.

  47. 47
    Apsalar says:

    I just sent $100 to No on 8. That Yes ad with the little girl and the mother who is horrified to discover her child is learning that she could marry is princess is revolting.

  48. 48
    lethargytartare says:

    as long as we’re conceding that the Democratic Party needs an opposition party to reign in their instinct for wildly inappropriate spending, could someone give me an historical example or two of such uniquely democratic policy?

  49. 49
    Reed says:

    I, for one, wish the Blue Dogs would switch partys en masse (after the election, of course). Get them out of the Democratic Party where they frequently are as obstructionist as Repubs, and into a legitimate party of opposition. That would invalidate the wrong-headed notion that there is currently some true division between "socialist" Democrats and "patriotic" Republicans.

  50. 50
    epmason says:

    Georgea is worth watching if for no other reason than that those polling lines draw a red/blue, bi-partisan penis.

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