Subtle

This is real subtle. Quick rundown for the TLDR crowd:

On 31 August, an Alaskan General says Palin had no hand in decision making.

On 3 September, he says it again.

On 5 September, he completely changes his story.

On 8 September, he is promoted.

Apparently, that is change you can believe in.

177 replies
  1. 1
    Warren Terra says:

    John, what sexist point about Governor Palin’s family are you trying to make here?

  2. 2
    gopher2b says:

    Speaking of subtlety, check out Sully’s blog. What the heck is going on over there.

  3. 3
    SGEW says:

    Gah! What the hell’s next? Are they really going to go all the way with a corrupt, lying, openly dishonest campaign? Will 2008 see the great American triumph of the Big Lie? This is honestly getting worse than 2000 or 2004: and it’s only mid-September!

    This is exactly the kind of mindset that leads to unfortunate ideas coming into their heads.

    To wit:

    “Hey, we got away with it again! They’ll let us get away with murder!”

    “Hmmm. That’s a good idea. Maybe we can just start killing people?”
    “Brilliant!”

    (Over-wrought, I admit But you know what I mean.)

  4. 4
    KRK says:

    According to this Alaska blog, its a particularly craven move on the part of Craig Campbell since his promotion is only a “state” promotion, not given federal recognition. Among his peers with the other states’ National Guards he’ll still be just a two-star guy, but now a rather obvious doofus of a two-star.

    An excerpt:

    Evidently, General Campbell is receiving an unprecedented and undeserved promotion to three-star rank on Sept 7. The Guardsmen found out about this travesty when a call went out for volunteers to fill the room for his ceremony. The response was almost non-existent.

    Adjutants General of the 50 States are authorized Major General (two-star) rank and in all but rare circumstances are granted Federal Recognition as Major Generals. This means they are “real” Major Generals with all the respect that comes with such high rank.

    General Campbell’s promotion will be a “state” promotion. He will be a three-star general only while on State business. In a very rank-conscious environment, this distinction will not be lost on the other Flag Officers. He will look the part of a three-star general but will not be regarded as one by the very people he needs to work with and influence.

    This promotion will only benefit General Campbell who will trumpet his new rank. It will not be help further the cause of the Alaska National Guard or its loyal and now outraged members.

  5. 5
    John Cole says:

    Speaking of subtlety, check out Sully’s blog. What the heck is going on over there.

    I have no idea.

    I would not be surprised if they did can him- he was kind of out of control over the Palin kid thing, although it would be weird for him to get fired for the kind of shit that gets folks at the weekly standard and elsewhere promoted.

    At the same time, it is Sullivan. Maybe he got some bad health news, maybe there is something going on with the husband, maybe he is just burnt out.

    Beats me.

  6. 6
    SGEW says:

    . . . check out Sully’s blog.

    It is curious, I’ll admit.

    [The german translates as: “What we cannot speak of we must pass over in silence.”]

  7. 7
    Keith says:

    I guess Alaska doesn’t have a “Gubernatorial Medal of Freedom”.

  8. 8
    Warren Terra says:

    Less snarkily, the promotion is also really odd: he’s been given a third star within Alaska, but it’s not recognized outside. Palin could just as effectively given him a tiara, or a clown hat. At least in the DKos diary – a source that obviously should be taken with a hefty grain of salt – the suggestion was made that his chain of command were mightily displeased as they spent their careers within a well-defined rank heirarchy and felt this was purest bull excrement, and that few went to the promotion ceremony.

    More snarkily, maybe he was promoted because Alaska is so close to Russia and We’re All Georgians Now?

  9. 9
    SpotWeld says:

    Okay, when did TL;DR enter our internet venacular?
    I’m seeing it everywhere now.

  10. 10
    SGEW says:

    . . . when did TL;DR enter our internet venacular?

    Y R U NT AWARE OF ALL INTERTUBESNETS TRADITIONS?

  11. 11
    rachel says:

    Sullivan says he’s taking a break to enjoy the last of summer with his husband.

  12. 12
    rawshark says:

    SpotWeld Says:

    Okay, when did TL;DR enter our internet venacular?
    I’m seeing it everywhere now.

    Whatsitmean?

  13. 13
    Shalimar says:

    It’s even funnier than you make it sound. On 5 September he didn’t just change his story, he was upset that nameless people had been insinuating that Palin had no hand in decision making. So, he’s basically angry at his previous self.

  14. 14
    John Cole says:

    Okay, when did TL;DR enter our internet venacular?

    I read a lot of forums, and I have seen it for years.

    Although I guess my real response should be DK;DC.

  15. 15
    Kevin says:

    Whatsitmean?

    Too Long; Didn’t Read.

  16. 16
    SGEW says:

    Re: Sullivan’s mysterious non-activity

    Get a glimpse of the conspiracy theories and rumor mill that’s swirling around Sully’s absence on this thread on Yglesias’ blog.

    Ah, irony.

  17. 17
    SamFromUtah says:

    I read a lot of forums, and I have seen it for years.

    I think it’s been a LiveJournal staple for a long time, too.

    In the old Usenet days the equivalent was MEGO for “my eyes glazed over”; I don’t remember seeing tl;dr as such back then, but it might have been there too.

  18. 18

    Gah! What the hell’s next? Are they really going to go all the way with a corrupt, lying, openly dishonest campaign? Will 2008 see the great American triumph of the Big Lie? This is honestly getting worse than 2000 or 2004: and it’s only mid-September!

    Or, to engage in blatant link-whoring,

    Indeed.

  19. 19
    SpotWeld says:

    Rove on experience, Palin on the bridge, McCain on.. um. everything. Now this guy.

    It’s like the GOP has become some sort of wierd Heinlein-esque influence on people.

    If only Al Gore’s time traveling Action Rangers could recruit the past versions of these people to beat up on their present selves.

  20. 20
    Brian J says:

    I hate to sound like a ten-year-old boy, but if McCain wins, I’m really not sure how I’d handle it. It’s not so much that I’m afraid for the country’s survival; if we can handle Bush and Cheney, I think we can handle anything. Instead, it’s that we’ve been given just about every sign that McCain and Palin are as if not more conservative than Bush and Cheney. We’ve been given so many hints that McCain is just about as rash, stubborn, lazy and intellectually insecure as the current crop of Republican clowns. Yet, things remain way too close for anyone’s comfort. And if he and Palin are elected, once again, it’s not like we’re all going to die. It’s that the incredible pile of shit that the Bush administration has left for the next guy to clean up is likely to get even bigger.

    On a personal note, I’m also not sure how I’d handle it mentally. Perhaps your conservative friends and family are different, but many of mine are also the most arrogant, condescending, obnoxious assholes when it comes to politics. It’s not that I disagree with their beliefs. It’s that I’ll have to listen to them gloat like the guy in his group of friends who is the first one to lose his virginity, as if they’ve won it in a honorable fashion.

    This means nothing, really, but my gut tells me that Obama is going to win. Even if it’s not by the landslide that I’d like, I still think he’s going to pull it out. Of course, the news that he’s scaling back in Georgia, combined with polls at fivethirtyeight.com and the commentary that Obama should give up on North Carolina, makes me feel like I was during finals time in college when I was still a major major: angry, itchy, belligerent, and ready to throw myself off a building. I guess it’s time to go to the gym.

  21. 21
    SGEW says:

    Al Gore will save us! He’s a tenth level vice president, after all.

  22. 22

    […] John Cole at Balloon Juice: On 31 August, an Alaskan General says Palin had no hand in decision making. […]

  23. 23
    PeterJ says:

    From the comments

    Does this increase his pay and benefits? (4.00 / 1)
    And who pays Alaska or U.S.?

    Shouldn’t the answer to the second question be the McCain campaign?

  24. 24
    Zifnab says:

    This means nothing, really, but my gut tells me that Obama is going to win. Even if it’s not by the landslide that I’d like, I still think he’s going to pull it out.

    I simply refuse to believe that a group of ignorant, incompetent, constantly-wrong ditto-heads can steal an election three times in a fucking row. Even Soviet Russia caved to popular government eventually. It would just blow my mind to see McCain walk away with the Presidency. How can he even manage? He can’t fart without Lieberman telling him how. He can’t sneeze without sucking up to Jesus. He can’t cough without flip flopping on some major policy issue. His campaign is an absolute train wreck.

    I simply refuse to believe he is organized enough to win an election no matter how die-hard his political supporters may be. Come November, I just can’t bring myself to believe the McCain voting block will have it in them to trudge down to the polls and pull the lever for this guy. He’s got all the charisma of a dead moose.

  25. 25
    GSD says:

    The military as a tool for political hacks.

    Alaska, a little slice of 70’s Chile.

    Wonder if Palin will put that new stadium to use in the round ups.

    -GSD

  26. 26
    SGEW says:

    He’s got all the charisma of a dead moose.

    To which the McCain campaign replies: “Sarah! Sarah! Sarah!”

  27. 27
  28. 28
    J. says:

    America, eez great country! Where else (well, except for a Communist state or a dictatorship) can you abandon your dignity and integrity and lie your ass off to please your ruler (forget the people) and get promoted?

  29. 29
    LiberalTarian says:

    TLDR is the story of my life. In a nutshell. I read the first 5 graphs, the rest I skim, leap to the punchline.

    ADHD = TLDR

  30. 30
    NYT says:

    I saw CNN’s Situation Room report on the “Bridge to Nowhere” controversy. Basically their report as I can remember was
    1. A fairly long intro saying how Palin is claiming to be a maverick who cut spending. Showed some clips of her speeches.
    2. Some explanation of where Gravina Island is etc
    3. Explain that the bridge funding was the baby of Alaskan Republican senators.
    4. Said that Sarah Palin was “generally in favor of the bridge”. Showed a clip of Palin saying she was in favor of progress or some such. Showed a picture of Palin in a T shirt with a picture of a bridge and a number (but did NOT explain that the number is the Postcode where the bridge is).
    5. Explained that Palin had stopped work on the bridge after Congress had changed their position.
    6. Finally they brought up an item that Obama and Biden had opposed a bill to reallocate money from the bridge to Katrina victims and that McCain had not voted on the bridge.

    The report was followed by 2 talking heads (Borger and Crowley?) saying that Obama may be making a mistake going after Palin when he needed to go after McCain.
    Also with all the bad economic news why is he talking about a 200M bridge (no mention of lying being the issue).

    Anyway it seems the bridge story is actually a negative – for Obama.
    Or so CNN would have me believe.

  31. 31
    CMcC says:

    The pattern is clear: she fired a police chief and a public safety commissioner who disagree with her. A general who falls into line is promoted.

    The American people won’t be able to say they didn’t know.

  32. 32
    Dreggas says:

    CMcC Says:

    The pattern is clear: she fired a police chief and a public safety commissioner who disagree with her. A general who falls into line is promoted.

    The American people won’t be able to say they didn’t know.

    Which means she is more than qualified to be a republican.

  33. 33
    LiberalTarian says:

    Hell, Bush’s failures were out there for all the world to see, TWICE, and he managed to be president for two terms. I hear people saying Bush/Cheney are incompetent; honestly, I think as voters we are incompetent. To make a mistake and change is competence. To be unable to understand you’ve made a mistake and therefore do change, that is incompetent.

  34. 34
    handy says:

    The report was followed by 2 talking heads (Borger and Crowley?) saying that Obama may be making a mistake going after Palin when he needed to go after McCain.
    Also with all the bad economic news why is he talking about a 200M bridge (no mention of lying being the issue).

    That last point is the same one Tweety made the other night–these people are too stupid to deserve a microphone. Clue for you bobbleheads: If you didn’t parrot McPalin talking points as if they were true, the Obama campaign wouldn’t have to play fact checkers for you.

  35. 35
    raff says:

    According to this Alaska blog, its a particularly craven move on the part of Craig Campbell since his promotion is only a “state” promotion, not given federal recognition. Among his peers with the other states’ National Guards he’ll still be just a two-star guy, but now a rather obvious doofus of a two-star.

    I wondered about that when I read the article — “can Palin really promote a military official in any meaningful way?”. Also, didn’t Campbell get the memo that no-one but George Bush be referred to as a ‘commander-in-chief’? In both cases, apparently not.

  36. 36
    SDM says:

    Palin, clearly, may have some executive experience, but she’s very prepared to run the Fourth Branch on Day One.

  37. 37
  38. 38
    Conservatively Liberal says:

    Palin is just showing us that indeed she is in control of the (message coming out of the) guard. She wants you to know that she will exert the same control over everything in government if she becomes president.

    I would say ‘god help us’ but I guess he/she is on her side, not ours.

    Speaking of military, I am getting the motorcycle out to ride now and a jet broke the sound barrier somewhere out over the ocean. It was one hell of a crack followed by an explosion sound that rumbled on and on. Shit here was shaking, and I could feel it in my bones.

    Being on the south Oregon coast, we see military jets off in the distance over the ocean all of the time but this is the first time that I have heard one break the sound barrier.

  39. 39
    Just Some Fuckhead says:

    Sullivan says he’s taking a break to enjoy the last of summer with his husband.

    He’s prolly trying to get pregnant. He seemed a little overcome by the whole she’s-having-a-baby thing.

  40. 40
    Just Some Fuckhead says:

    Anyone else notice that WordPress Error has been down for a couple hours?

  41. 41
    Brian J says:

    I simply refuse to believe that a group of ignorant, incompetent, constantly-wrong ditto-heads can steal an election three times in a fucking row. Even Soviet Russia caved to popular government eventually. It would just blow my mind to see McCain walk away with the Presidency. How can he even manage? He can’t fart without Lieberman telling him how. He can’t sneeze without sucking up to Jesus. He can’t cough without flip flopping on some major policy issue. His campaign is an absolute train wreck.

    I simply refuse to believe he is organized enough to win an election no matter how die-hard his political supporters may be. Come November, I just can’t bring myself to believe the McCain voting block will have it in them to trudge down to the polls and pull the lever for this guy. He’s got all the charisma of a dead moose.

    I’m going to brush aside the claims that they “stole” something because I’m not well versed in this topic. Before I get flamed, let me say that I an not denying anything. I am merely saying that I don’t know enough.

    That said, if McCain wins, my guess is, it’ll be by the closest of close margins. I simply don’t see how he wins in a blow out election, unless things really start to look up for the Republicans in the next few weeks (e.g. McCain finds OSL himself, the economy starts adding hundreds of thousands of jobs, Bush cures cancer) and/or people are a lot more racist and a lot less willing to vote for Obama than we think. But hey, he doesn’t need to win by a lot to be in the White House.

    Of course, as we both can agree, it shouldn’t be close. Based on how pissed off people are, you’d think that Obama would be ahead by five to ten points. I think McCain’s ahead or as close as he is because people respect his service, which they should, but stop there and refuse to take a hard look at the issues. I can’t believe it, but hey, I just had to spend a half hour with my mom, a voter in almost every election, explaining the outline of the Electoral College, something she’s seen on television before. It’s daunting for a lot of people to learn the issues, particularly when you consider that there’s so much bullshit out there.

    In the end, like I said, I think Obama is going to win. If that’s the case, it’s because he asks the weekend before the election, “Are you better off now than you were eight years ago?” and people respond accordingly. If they don’t, or if they place some other value higher than what they seem to perceive as their well-being, then they get what they earned.

    On a related but less dour note, I hope that the polls show a competitive race in the places he’s targeting. I can’t believe so many people seem to think he should jump ship in North Carolina or that Michigan seems like a lost cause because of some alleged internal numbers on Daily Kos, particularly when you consider all of the on-the-ground work he’s been doing. Hell, the Democrats now have an almost 80,000-person advantage in Nevada. Are we supposed to pretend that doesn’t matter?

  42. 42
    Rome Again says:

    On 5 September, he completely changes his story.

    On 8 September, he is promoted.

    I’m beginning to believe McCain and his friends really are shape-shifting reptilians. Surely an unseasoned female junior governor VP candidate can’t be THAT scary.

  43. 43
    oh really says:

    Ziffnab says : I simply refuse to believe that a group of ignorant, incompetent, constantly-wrong ditto-heads can steal an election three times in a fucking row.

    Steal it? They’re not going to have to steal it. Barack has told the American people how much he respects and admires John McCain. They’re going to take his advice and vote for McCain. 2000 Florida definitely. 2004 Ohio maybe. 2008 United States totally unnecessary.

    I’m not panicking. I just don’t think Obama has what it takes. His Q&A performances haven’t improved at all. It may be that he’s so totally bought into the myth of his “eloquence” (the guy’s great with a teleprompter and horrible speaking extemporaneously) that he actually thinks he’s good in such situations.

    Right now, I think Obama’s headed for the John Kerry Windsurfing Hall of Shame. Every Obama supporter I talk to is thoroughly disgusted with his performance. Mr. Smiley Face. No grit. No guts. No juevos. It’s unbelievably disappointing. I keep trying to think of one thing he has done since he wrapped up the nomination that has made me more enthusiastic about voting for him. Nothing. I draw a complete blank.

    The other thing is we shouldn’t consider dishonest campaigning as equivalent to stealing an election. Since the Republicans are capable of nothing else, dishonesty is simply a given. No one says the American people have to be so stupid that they buy into Republican lies, but that stupidity is also a given. Democrats have to win with the GOP and voters they have, not the ones they wish they had.

    This election was winnable for Obama, though I’ve never thought it would be easy. He’s made one lame move after another and every day he looks more and more like the Classic Democratic Loser. The Republicans are just doing what they always do.

    Obama’s got about ten minutes to turn his act around. I don’t think he has it in him, but I’d be ecstatic if he proved me wrong.

    My financial situation is dire, but I gave Obama money again recently. I’m beginning to wish I’d done something useful with it like buy some crank or ZWDs.

  44. 44
    Ted says:

    Sullivan says he’s taking a break to enjoy the last of summer with his husband.

    Right before his annual vacation, which just recently ended, he said when he got back that it would be “balls to the wall until the election.” So something’s up.

  45. 45
    Wordpress Error says:

    Just Some Fuckhead Says:

    Anyone else notice that WordPress Error has been down for a couple hours?

    It’s mot me pal, it’s the goddamn server. Stop yer pickin’ on me. everbody!

  46. 46
    Ted says:

    Anyone else notice that WordPress Error has been down for a couple hours?

    I like the blog WordPress Error a lot. The site owner delivers some hilarious rants, and in between I enjoy reading the possible reasons for the inability to establish a database connection.

  47. 47
    John S. says:

    CNN: The most trusted name in news bullshit

    The BIGGEST STORY EVER as of this moment is apparently the “fact” that JOE BIDEN ATTACKED SARAH PALIN AND HER BABY!

    Yes folks, that was the lead on Campbell Brown and Candy Crowley dutifully played the role of McCain surrogate.

    And of course…

    THIS IS ALL GOOD NEWS FOR McCAIN!

    /barf

  48. 48
    SGEW says:

    Oooh. More Palin media reaction catnip:

    CNN’s Paul Begala refuses to budge when talking to a McCain spokesperson, repeatedly pointing out that the spokesperson was . . . well . . . lying.

    C’mon, “journalists.” Scrape the shit outta yer mouths and reclaim your souls!

  49. 49
    t jasper parnell says:

    Rendell did better on the used airline market than Palin.

  50. 50
    KRK says:

    Conservatively Liberal Says:

    Being on the south Oregon coast, we see military jets off in the distance over the ocean all of the time but this is the first time that I have heard one break the sound barrier.

    Being on the north Washington coast, we have jets from Whibey N.A.S. flying directly over us quite regularly. The “Sound of Freedom” (bleh) is something you can almost get used to. When Mt. St. Helens blew in 1980 and shook our house from 180 miles away, I just assumed it was a sonic boom.

  51. 51
    Apsaras says:

    Oh dear. Apparently Obama used the phrase “Lipstick on a Pig” and that was a SEXIST SEXIST attack on Palin.

  52. 52
    dbrown says:

    Obama still leads in delegates by States and if he wins just CO & NH or VA he takes the cake. If OH (right, not with roves thugs)he wins. Also, he has a shot at MT, NV and F-ing NC or FL. Obama has a lot of ways to win, McInsane needs to take all his leaning and sweep every near ate or he loses. Obama needs $$$ and even the more get the truth out. The media is starting to attack eye-candy the pork queen; their effort to shield her has not gone well and people are getting questions about her real background. Roves attempt to hide her has started people to think. Still, McInsane is the real issue and he has problems and the debates will not be good for him. Stop worrying about national polls that are falsely weighted for repubics and don’t show the real delegate lead.

  53. 53
    Wordpress Error says:

    CNN’s Paul Begala refuses to budge when talking to a McCain spokesperson, repeatedly pointing out that the spokesperson was . . . well . . . lying.

    POW’s and there spokespersons don’t lie and neither does the Moose hunter.

  54. 54
    Bostondreams says:

    His Q&A performances haven’t improved at all. It may be that he’s so totally bought into the myth of his “eloquence” (the guy’s great with a teleprompter and horrible speaking extemporaneously) that he actually thinks he’s good in such situations.

    Oh, come on. That is one of the dumbest comments I have seen. Have you watched him on O’Reilly at all, or seen him on the stump? This is a myth, and a bad one at that.
    The man does just fine without a teleprompter. What do you want him to do? Scream? hell, man, watch him on that blowhard O’Reilly’s show.

    And every Obama supporter I know remain steadfast and mostly confident in their support. I would point out here that the plural of anecdote is not data.

    And, by the way, I do not see Hillary Clinton doing any differently (in case that is what you are implying). If we think the attacks and lies are bad now, what would they have done with Hillary?

  55. 55
    Scrutinizer says:

    Being on the south Oregon coast, we see military jets off in the distance over the ocean all of the time but this is the first time that I have heard one break the sound barrier.

    It’s the sound of freedom.

  56. 56
    t jasper parnell says:

    Re: Sullivan, the Wittgenstein quote, of that which one cannot speak, one must remain silent, is the basis for W’s attack on many traditional philosophical questions, particularly metaphysics and related whatnotery. Sullivan is, it is true, a dope when it comes to deep thought, but only a Grade-A Moron, would use W as code for his being silenced the powers that be.

  57. 57
    The Dangerman says:

    This is real subtle.

    They said they would be transparent; they were telling the truth.

  58. 58
    Kali's Little Sister says:

    So this message from Sullivan’s site appears: Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muß man schweigen. Translation: What you can’t speak about you must remain silent about.

  59. 59
    SamFromUtah says:

    The “Sound of Freedom” (bleh) is something you can almost get used to.

    Where I lived as a kid we were 10 miles from an Air Force base. We heard sonic booms every day, usually several of them. As you say, I almost got used to it. But some of the windows in that house had cracks that would get a little bit longer every time those guys flew over.

  60. 60
    SGEW says:

    . . . the guy’s great with a teleprompter and horrible speaking extemporaneously . . . .

    Watch this and apologize. No teleprompter. Mentions events of the day. Occasionally refers to notes at the podium, but otherwise faces the crowd.

    Next meme, please.

  61. 61
    Kali's Little Sister says:

    Sorry tjasper–site lag–didn’t see you had it covered. Far better, too.

  62. 62
    Laura W says:

    Just Some Fuckhead Says:

    Anyone else notice that WordPress Error has been down for a couple hours?

    I recently switched to Firefox 3 and for the first time yesterday I clicked on the Most Visited site tab up there on the left of the bookmark toolbar.
    Word Press Error was #1

    I share that not to piss John off, but because I thought it was cute.
    Bristol with child, cute.

  63. 63
    Notorious P.A.T. says:

    Is anyone watching Olbermann? Did you see what f**king Meghan McCain just said on the “Today” show?

  64. 64
    t jasper parnell says:

    site lag

    At this point I am just glad when a post goes through.
    Plus for those who think Obama is not a good speaker off the cuff and for those of you who use terrorism as an excuse to hate on, as it were, America see the same.

  65. 65
    Notorious P.A.T. says:

    Dreggas Says:

    But only the McCain family knows what ware is like

    Thanks for linking that. I posted in fury before reading any comments.

  66. 66
    rawshark says:

    Have you watched him on O’Reilly at all, or seen him on the stump?

    Link?

  67. 67
    Incertus says:

    Speaking of subtle, how about the “Justice” department threatening to put a guy in jail because he might testify for the defense?

  68. 68
    Susheelized Medicine says:

    I have a feeling that I’ll be out $2300 by November 4th. I’ve never contributed money to a political campaign, but this republican smear machine has pushed me over the edge.

    Senator McCain, brace yourself for the 2300-dollar-fuck-you.

  69. 69
    t jasper parnell says:

    Bridge to Nowhere after saying no: + 442 Million
    Profit on Ebay: – 600 k (not counting fees)
    McCain/Palin: Worthless

  70. 70
    SGEW says:

    . . . only the McCain family knows what war is like . . . .

    My goodness. I had no idea that she could fill me with such visceral loathing. But then, I often have atypical reactions to certain people (see, e.g., Edwards, John – but I was right!).

    I cannot imagine the horror (the horror) of watching her on television explaining her father’s policies for the next four years. Watch: she’ll be the press secretary! It’ll be fantastic. In a drinking-oneself-to-death-in-a-gutter sort of way.

  71. 71
    SGEW says:

    Link?

    See my comment above, in this thread.

  72. 72
  73. 73

    Meanwhile, check out this Pollster.com poll from IBD that has Obama up 45-40 over McCain (and from Investors Wingnut Daily, no less).

    Plus, HuffPo’s Seth Walls and some number-crunchers think that the latest Gallup, CBS and USAT polls are oversampling Republicans, even as Democratic voter registration is shooting through the roof.

  74. 74
    SGEW says:

    Darkrose, that is a very loaded setup for SATSQ if I’ve ever seen one.

  75. 75
    Incertus says:

    Plus, HuffPo’s Seth Walls and some number-crunchers think that the latest Gallup, CBS and USAT polls are oversampling Republicans, even as Democratic voter registration is shooting through the roof.

    The press wanted a closer race, and the pollsters are giving it to them.

  76. 76
    Jake says:

    So the lipstick on a pig story is a good one.

    I think Obama suckered Team McCain on that one pretty well. We’ll see how it plays out, but so far they’re not backing down. They’re saying “No, no, you don’t understand. We weren’t talking about Palin. We were talking about McCain. McCain’s the pig.”

    Awesome.

  77. 77
    myiq2xu says:

    Apparently, that is change you can believe in.

    Have you checked his countertops yet?

    I heard a rumor that Palin tore the tags off her mattresses and she cheats at Solitaire too!

    BTW – Al Capone was a community organizer. In Chicago even.

  78. 78
    SGEW says:

    Palin tore the tags off her mattresses . . . .

    This is quite legal, as she would be the consumer of the item. The tag is only prohibited to be removed by a wholesaler or retailer. Case law is split on selling it on eBay or Craig’s list. Otherwise, it’s ok: your long nightmare is over. You can rip the tags off of your mattresses.

    . . . and she cheats at Solitaire too!

    This would actually worries me, as it seems so appropriate. Obama – poker player. McCain – craps shooter. Biden – rugby tough. Palin – cheats at Solitaire.

    So, so appropriate.

  79. 79
    Conservatively Liberal says:

    Anyone else notice that WordPress Error has been down for a couple hours?

    What I would do if I were the blog owner is modify the error page so that it is at least more entertaining. ;)

    The “Sound of Freedom” (bleh) is something you can almost get used to.

    Where I lived as a kid we were 10 miles from an Air Force base. We heard sonic booms every day, usually several of them. As you say, I almost got used to it. But some of the windows in that house had cracks that would get a little bit longer every time those guys flew over.

    I grew up in Spokane, Washington and Fairchild Air Force Base is west of town. During the 60’s into the 80’s every time they went on alert out would come the B-52’s, like one every minute or two, right over the north end of town. Though they weren’t breaking the sound barrier they still shook the shit out of everything. The city was finally able to get Fairchild to stop doing it so damn much and after a while you hardly noticed that there was a SAC base on the edge of town.

    The press wanted a closer race, and the pollsters are giving it to them.

    Yup, gotta stay with the narrative of a close race. Only way to drive up viewership and ad revenue in the media.

    Polls don’t mean squat to me right now because I believe that this election is not going to be like any other that has been polled in the past.

    I will wait for this fall and the election, that is the only poll I am interested in.

  80. 80
    SGEW says:

    Woops. My last post had b a d w o r d s in it, I do believe. I should’ve known.

  81. 81
    John S. says:

    myiq2xu Says:

    Not Obama/XX Chromosomes 08!

    At least you’re voting your core values.

  82. 82
    Ted says:

    myiq2xu Says:

    Nobody gives a shit what that nutcase thinks anymore.

  83. 83
    gbear says:

    I heard a rumor that Palin tore the tags off her mattresses and she cheats at Solitaire too!

    Actually, she tears the wings off of butterflies, but you were right about cheating at solitaire. Then when she wins she squeals with delight at her own cleverness. “What a smart cookie, I am!” she says.

  84. 84
    SGEW says:

    Oh, and calling Al Capone a “community organizer” is, in fact, correct in a certain manner (with as much truth to it (if not more) than the notion that Jeshua Ben Joseph was a “community organizer” as well [scoff scoff]).

    But here’s the rub: we need to take Obama’s experience as a community organizer (an experience that he was not actually all that hunky-dory with (see his book for details – no link, long subject) and so therefore turned to politics) and apply it to governmental programs (e.g., community services, health care, child care, education, etc. etc. (aka the “liberal domestic agenda,” aka the Democratic party platform).

    Right? So that the rather awful drawbacks of organizers such as Capone (and, in my opinion, that Jesus guy I’ve heard about) can be regulated by federal oversight (instead of perpetuated by wrong headed ideas such as prohibition, or by a brutal military-based occupation of religious dissidents).

    [note – not actually responding to above poster, just a thought]

  85. 85
    JL says:

    It’s amazing that myiq2xu believes what they write. It probably takes two of them to write the lies. One only has to read Bloomberg news, or the NYTimes article on Egyptians views of us to realize that we are in deep trouble. Oh well. Nobody gives a shit what that nutcases thinks anymore.

  86. 86
    Notorious P.A.T. says:

    Have you checked his countertops yet?

    Light up the Malkin symbol! Call in the experts!

  87. 87
    Notorious P.A.T. says:

    Oh, and calling Al Capone a “community organizer” is, in fact, correct in a certain manner

    I think that was sarcasm.

  88. 88
    SGEW says:

    Wow, I just got around to watching Obama’s “these folks” response at the Q&A in Michigan. (h/t t jasper parnell, above)

    I’ve said it before, I’ve said it again. Everyone can chill. Obama is full of win and electoral noneuclidian physics. He’s got this.

  89. 89
    rawshark says:

    SGEW Says:

    Link?

    See my comment above, in this thread.

    Anyone have a link to his appearance on O’Reilly?

  90. 90
    Brian J says:

    So, who else is jazzed that the campaign apparently broke the fund raising record for August? We don’t know the exact total yet, and probably won’t until around September 20, but it’s at least $55 million. There have been hints that it’s really, really big. If I had to guess, thinking it’s a huge number, I’d say $80 million. Although can you imagine the media circus if he broke $100 million? I shouldn’t get my hopes up, but hey, it’s certainly possible for him.

  91. 91
    Jake says:

    So, who else is jazzed that the campaign apparently broke the fund raising record for August?

    Considering I chipped in to the haul (a couple of times), I’m pretty fucking jazzed.

    FWIW, I think Team Obama owes the fine Governor Pig Palin a debt of gratitude.

  92. 92
    SGEW says:

    Anyone have a link to his appearance on O’Reilly?

    Oh! Here’s one of those. link.

    (sorry!)

  93. 93
    tomjones says:

    The Palin injection (I think that’s the name of the next Bourne movie, come to think of it) came in early September, but the August haul does include his big acceptance speech. And his birthday. =)

  94. 94
    Incertus says:

    So, who else is jazzed that the campaign apparently broke the fund raising record for August?

    So were they sandbagging the NY Times? They were reporting that Obama was having problems with fundraising and oh, maybe he made the wrong call by refusing public financing.

  95. 95
    flywheelgrinding says:

    SGEW and myiq2xu:

    “Move along ladies. You know we don’t allow the working girls to sit inside.”

  96. 96
    Brian J says:

    I hate to obsess about this, but if he raised at least $80 million in August, he’ll have almost as much as McCain will have for the next two months. If he can do it in September and October as well, he’ll have to have more than McCain, unless the RNC has some insanely good months. With so many resources at its disposal, I imagine it’ll feel a lot less pressure to divert resources from some of the red states he’s trying to poach.

  97. 97
    SGEW says:

    flywheelgrinding Says:
    SGEW and myiq2xu:

    ?

  98. 98
    rawshark says:

    SGEW Says:

    Anyone have a link to his appearance on O’Reilly?

    Oh! Here’s one of those. link.

    (sorry!)

    Thanks. :)

  99. 99
    Stuck in the Fun House says:

    I’d say $80 million. Although can you imagine the media circus if he broke $100 million? I shouldn’t get my hopes up, but hey, it’s certainly possible for him.

    That’s great. Now he needs to stop being so damn nice and take that money, wrap it up in a nice neat bundle, then drop it on the head of the motherfucking republicans.

    It’s the only way to be sure. (:

    **

  100. 100
    Rome Again says:

    Recently I moved to an area where I can no longer get MSNBC.

    CNN is all Sarah-love all the time.

    ::BARF::

  101. 101
    Brian J says:

    That’s great. Now he needs to stop being so damn nice and take that money, wrap it up in a nice neat bundle, then drop it on the head of the motherfucking republicans.

    It’s the only way to be sure. (:

    I agree. I know governors have their jobs to do, but is it possible to dispatch them to local media markets in addition to campaign stops? We have Democratic governors in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, New Mexico, and Colorado. Why not use these swing state governors who certainly have some local appeal to make the same attacks that Rendell made yesterday, as reported by THP? He said that Palin was a nice person, but if he did what she did, he would have been impeached. I don’t know if it’s possible to have them sit down with the local news, but if it is, it can’t cost anything, and it’s definitely going to at least cross the paths of the people who aren’t on blogs.

  102. 102
    Soylent Green says:

    Myiq you ignorant slut.

  103. 103
    Will Hunting says:

    re the Begala video – the GOP are masters at in engaging in fact debate. That is what they do best. If they get you into a fact debate you never get to the policy debate. Confuse, obfuscate and outright lie. It’s why people still believe that Saddam and Bin Ladin were good buddies. He is 100% right about the media not doing its job.

    re polls: This is to the point made above about oversampling of Republicans. Does anyone know if the prevalence of cell phones has affected polling? The pollsters are calling land lines right? Are younger people generally underrepresented. Is there any kind of study showing polling as less reliable in the Internet/cell phone age?

    Thanks

  104. 104
    gbear says:

    From a post by The Littlest Gator over at Group News Blog:

    From Sept. 2007, CNN

    Just last month, presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, said pet projects could have played a role in a Minnesota bridge collapse that killed 13 people earlier this year.

    “Maybe if we had done it right, maybe some of that money would have gone to inspect those bridges and other bridges around the country,” McCain told a group of people in a town-hall style meeting in Ankeny, Iowa.

    “Maybe the 200,000 people who cross that bridge every day would have been safer than spending $233 million of your tax dollars on a bridge in Alaska to an island with 50 people on it.”

    That’s gotta hurt.

  105. 105
    SGEW says:

    Why not use these swing state governors who certainly have some local appeal to make the same attacks that Rendell made yesterday . . . ?

    Timing. It’s all about timing. Why trot out your chargers early in September? They’ll be old news by the time November comes around. Drop ’em into key swing states at precisely the right moment, keep ’em in reserve for emergencies, then pound the pavement on Nov. 1st. Or whenever date they have written in red ink in their magical 3-Ring Binders of Justice.

    Obama’s slick, y’all. He’s got the pieces in place, and he’ll put them into play as events unfold. All I can do is sit back and try and guess what’s next. And I’m usually proven that he’s actually better at the game than I had expected.

    (I know this sounds like googly-eyed Obama worship, but his political acumen (and Axelrod’s and Plouffe’s, natch)is a key factor in my full support for the Dems this year.)

  106. 106
    AkaDad says:

    If Obama raises 80 million, that would be excellent news for John McCain.

  107. 107
    Conservatively Liberal says:

    SGEW Says:

    flywheelgrinding Says:
    SGEW and myiq2xu:

    ?

    More like ?!

    Like WTF? Must be a noob here. ;)

    Myiq you ignorant slut.

    Careful that you don’t get him excited, he’ll go goat on your ass.

  108. 108
    Kevin says:

    Myiq you ignorant slut.

    Myiq, you pompous ass

    also works.

  109. 109
    Gus says:

    Obama is full of win and electoral noneuclidian physics.

    Yeah, but he gets no coverage from the MSM. It’s all Palin all the time, and since she won’t talk to any of them, it’s all worthless. I’ve heard a lot about Obama’s great ground game, but I haven’t seen any evidence of it. I have, however seen shitloads of terrible McCain commercials. That’s the thing about grassroots campaigns: reaching people is a lot of work, while a campaign commercial reaches thousands with little effort. I can see the value of a ground game, but I’d like to see at least one commercial to counter all the fucking McCain commercials. Granted McCain is behind by a lot in MN, but I’d like to see some sign that Obama plans to wind here.

  110. 110
    SGEW says:

    Is there any kind of study showing polling as less reliable in the Internet/cell phone age?

    Yes. It will be conducted on Nov. 4th.

    More seriously, one thing I’m looking forward to come January 2009 (besides the whole, you know, Obama saving the world with his hope-rays) is a comprehensive re-examination of our current polling models.

  111. 111
    cain says:

    f**king Meghan McCain

    That’s all I saw when reading that comment. :D She’s a bad dresser though. Bleah, she should learn more from her mother.

    As for wordpress errors, I think i’m seeing a pattern emerging. It seems that it gets really bad around 2:00pm blod standard time (eg wherever this blog is0 and then ends around 5:00pm. I need to look at more time stamps but I wonder if it’s some kind of denial of service. If John can look at the logs and see who is accessing the site maybe we can figure out what it is?

    I’m sorry, the site was working and now it’s not, every day. Something smells. It used to sputter when KOS linked here, but it was short lived. Now it’s consistently down starting around 1-2pm till evening my time. (PST)

    cain

  112. 112
    Conservatively Liberal says:

    As hard as Obama is starting to hit back (look at his response to McCain saying Obama wants to teach sex ed to kindergarten kids), I have a feeling that Obama is going to be unloading on McCain in late October/early November. Hit hard and keep hitting repeatedly, and in the meantime let McCain lower the bar so that Obama has no problem ripping McCain a new asshole while taking a higher road than McCain has been.

    Rope-a-dope, and Obama has been playing it very well so far. Perception will play a big part this fall and if Obama can keep McCain on the defensive throughout late October/early November then he enters the election stronger while McCain is carrying the negatives into the polling booth.

    I fully expect the McCain camp and the right to play every single dirty card they can, and they will go below the belt repeatedly. All Obama has to do is maintain the high road but let a low blow hit at the appropriate time(s) to knock the wind out of McCain.

  113. 113
    Stuck in the Fun House says:

    re polls: This is to the point made above about oversampling of Republicans. Does anyone know if the prevalence of cell phones has affected polling?

    There are so many X factors going on this election, I wonder if the pollsters are any where near the truth with there weighting of these polls. You have the young people factor, with massive new registration and nobody knows if they’ll show up en masse to vote for Obama. They’ve never been reliable voters (young folks), but this year there are signs they may actually vote. You also have large shifting demographics in certain states and many dem independents coming home to the Dem party. While on the other hand, quite a few republicans now call themselves independents. Also, there are the current dead ender Hillary supporters who may not vote or vote for Mccain and Palin. Right now there are too many of them claiming they won’t vote for Obama, but who knows what they’ll do when it’s crunch time.
    Then there’s the biggest wildcard of all — will labor dems in the midwest actually vote for a black guy, or continue to chew their leg off by voting GOP. The way things are going it seems to me in order for Obama to win he will have to have a superior ground game on election day. And the GOP has been very good at that recently, so it won’t be easy.

  114. 114
    Conservatively Liberal says:

    As for wordpress errors, I think i’m seeing a pattern emerging. It seems that it gets really bad around 2:00pm blod standard time (eg wherever this blog is0 and then ends around 5:00pm. I need to look at more time stamps but I wonder if it’s some kind of denial of service. If John can look at the logs and see who is accessing the site maybe we can figure out what it is?

    I had one of the regulars at my forum hitting me with SYN floods, and he was complaining about access. So were others because I have my system set to allow no more than 100 connections and the SYN flood was temporarily blocking other users from accessing my server (until the firewall blocked his system for a short time with each attack). I checked the firewall logs and found what was going on with the SYN flood and I asked him what browser he used (IE). I suggested he try Firefox to see if his IE was compromised and sure enough, his (and my) problems ended and he was able to access the site with Firefox and no SYN flood was triggered. He tried again with IE and he had the same problem.

    IE is a welcome mat for everything that sucks on the internet.

  115. 115
    oh really says:

    SGEW Says:Watch this and apologize. No teleprompter. Mentions events of the day. Occasionally refers to notes at the podium, but otherwise faces the crowd.

    Apologize? You’re kidding right? He’s looking at notes. That’s not extemporaneous.

  116. 116
    SGEW says:

    Apologize? You’re kidding right? He’s looking at notes. That’s not extemporaneous.

    Hoof. You’re a hard person to please. Try this one (h/t t jasper parnell, above). Answering a (kind of rambling) question about civil liberties. No notes. No teleprompter. Bit of a stump speech (i.e., he didn’t come up with all of it on the spot, obviously), but has a few ad libbed zingers.

  117. 117
    jbarntt says:

    I looked up John’s link, vetvoice.com. Curiously it seems to be be an anti McCain site.

    John, at least quote from a respectable center/left source such as the Washington Post, where there are some standards of journalistic professionalism. Vetvoice looks about as credible as the swiftboaters of a few years ago.

  118. 118
    Incertus says:

    Apologize? You’re kidding right? He’s looking at notes. That’s not extemporaneous.

    Why don’t you just go in a corner and eat a bag of dicks or something. Jeez.

  119. 119
    SGEW says:

    w00t! Check this out:

    The Mighty Paul/Nader/Barr/McKinney/Baldwin Juggernaut shall destroy us all!

    Doom! Doom!

  120. 120
    SGEW says:

    Also:

    Georgian Republican Uppity Count now stands officially at 2. Bets on reaching 3 by the end of the week?

    Watch the video clip of the incident he claims shows “uppityness” (or whatever). Then try to imagine his use of the word being non-racial.

    Special.

  121. 121
  122. 122
    Conservatively Liberal says:

    I looked up John’s link, vetvoice.com. Curiously it seems to be be an anti McCain site.

    Shorter jbarntt: Anything that is not pro-McCain is anti-McCain, which means it is pro-Obama!

    You looked up a link?! Congratulations!.

  123. 123
    Glocksman says:

    I looked up John’s link, vetvoice.com. Curiously it seems to be be an anti McCain site.

    The VoteVets site uses a wonderful new technology called hyperlinking.
    In other words, the text that you see in blue is a link to the author’s original source.
    Questions?

  124. 124
    SGEW says:

    Re: “Lipstick-On-A-Pig-Gate” (the name alone should indicate heavy levels of shark-jumping)

    As reported by Fox, the McCain team (and the right wing blogospheriod) is going all out on this one.

    Get this: The Republican’s “Truth Squad” (in their very first announcement, mind you) deployed their special agent, Gov. Swift, to demand an apology from Sen. Obama for his sexist comments. I’m not making this up.

    Hoo boy! I can’t wait until Gov. Palin describes how she’ll institute a Department of Love to deal with terrorists and dissidents, and everyone will just eat it up. Can we call this “jumping an Orwell”?

    However, in the same news cycle that the Obama camp launched the “L-word” (lie), they just dropped the “D-word” too (dishonorable).

    Game on.

  125. 125
    gbear says:

    In this week’s Newsweek:

    Warned by the Court

    A judge repeatedly told Palin and family not to badmouth her sister’s ex

    more popcorn please.

  126. 126
    Conservatively Liberal says:

    Sarah Palin’s sister warned about losing custody if Sarah and her family didn’t stop abusing the kids involved in the divorce:

    “If the court finds it is necessary due to disparagement in the Mat-Su Valley, for the children’s best interests, it will not hesitate to order custody to the father and a move into Anchorage.”

    From the GOS.

    Seems that the judge was concerned about the children suffering abuse from disparagement of Wooten (their father) by Sarah and other family members. If Sarah and her family had not backed off, her sister could have lost custody of the kids. Sarah instead took it to a whole new level once she became governor.

    Abuse. Of. Office.

    Abuse. Of. Kids.

    What. A. Candidate!

    Not.

  127. 127
    Joshua Norton says:

    The Republican’s “Truth Squad”

    The ultimate oxymoron. Heavy on the moron.

  128. 128
    Tattoosydney says:

    I looked up John’s link, vetvoice.com. Curiously it seems to be be an anti McCain site.

    John, at least quote from a respectable center/left source such as the Washington Post, where there are some standards of journalistic professionalism. Vetvoice looks about as credible as the swiftboaters of a few years ago.

    Why do you hate the troops so much?

  129. 129
    Brian J says:

    Timing. It’s all about timing. Why trot out your chargers early in September? They’ll be old news by the time November comes around. Drop ‘em into key swing states at precisely the right moment, keep ‘em in reserve for emergencies, then pound the pavement on Nov. 1st. Or whenever date they have written in red ink in their magical 3-Ring Binders of Justice.

    Obama’s slick, y’all. He’s got the pieces in place, and he’ll put them into play as events unfold. All I can do is sit back and try and guess what’s next. And I’m usually proven that he’s actually better at the game than I had expected.

    I guess so. I just worry about a fictional narrative taking hold and then the Democrats reacting too late.

    Your second paragraph makes me think that the strategy of opening lots of offices and working on his ground game was really the right move.

  130. 130
    Conservatively Liberal says:

    The ultimate oxymoran. Heavy on the moran.

    Improved. ;)

  131. 131
    flywheelgrinding says:

    Holy Shit! Big apology to SGEW from flywheel.

    The ibogaine was comin’ on strong and I mistook you for some kind of creep.

    Must not indulge and post.
    Must not indulge and post.
    Must not indulge and post.

    Ya hear the one about old Angus? He’s having a pint.

    He says to the barkeep, “Ya see that bridge? I built that bridge wit’ me own bare hands, but do you ever hear anybody say there’s old Angus the bridge builder? Noooo!”

    And then he says, “Ya see that boat out there? I built that boat wit’ me own bare hands, but do you ever hear anybody say there’s old Angus the boat builder? Noooo!”

    And then he says, “Ya see that house over there? I built that whole house wit’ me bare hands, but do you EVER hear anybody say there’s old Angus the house builder? Nooo!”

    “But ya fuck ooone goat…”

  132. 132
    Mr Furious says:

    That new McCain ad is the most disgraceful political ad I’ve ever seen.

    I’m sure that kind of shit flies around in some lower-level Georgia state house race, but a fucking Presidential race?

    McCain’s desperate, and a worthless piece of shit of a man for “approving that message.”

    More here.

  133. 133
    Stuck in the Fun House says:

    Update on LipPig gate

    Obama also said this

    “You can wrap an old fish in a piece of paper called ‘change,'” Obama continued, “it’s still gonna stink after eight years.

    Well that does it. Being as there’s fish in Alaska and Palin has caught/et them, he is obviously referring to her.

    *It is never the question, but the answer that is indiscreet. Fun House Musing!

  134. 134
    SGEW says:

    “You can wrap an old fish in a piece of paper called ‘change,’” Obama continued, “it’s still gonna stink after eight years.

    Some anti-Obama freaks are already saying he was insulting the odor of her lady parts. Srsly. They went there, that quickly.

    This is getting uglier faster than I expected.

  135. 135
    Brian J says:

    I’m sure that kind of shit flies around in some lower-level Georgia state house race, but a fucking Presidential race?

    Without having seen the ad, I’ll say that this appears to be some sort of turning point. Kevin Drum says that it’s clear John McCain is going to offer eight weeks of the culture war and that no matter who wins, he’s setting us down the path to an ungovernable country. For a guy that is supposedly not drawn to hyperbole, it’s a pretty strong conclusion for Drum to reach.

  136. 136
    Conservatively Liberal says:

    “But ya fuck ooone goat…”

    Good one! I guess it is true that some things are more memorable than others.

    If only myiq2xu GoatBoy could have stopped at one. Poor, poor goats.

    McCain/Palin oops, I mean Il Douche-ay/Mooselini appear to angrily respond to child abuse allegations.

    I love it! Just put some glasses and lipstick on and it would be complete.

  137. 137
    SGEW says:

    flywheelgrinding Says:
    Holy Shit! Big apology to SGEW from flywheel.

    De nada.

    Must not indulge and post.

    Nonsense! My goodness, is anyone here actually not chemically altered in some way?

    Ya hear the one about old Angus?

    Ahh, the old ones are the best, aren’t they? Thankx, I totally forgot that one, and now I can add it back into my repetoire of off-color jokes. It’s a good day.

  138. 138
    Tattoosydney says:

    My goodness, is anyone here actually not chemically altered in some way?

    People actually post on here WITHOUT being drunk and/or stoned?

    Well, I must say that that explains a lot…

  139. 139
    Martin says:

    re polls: This is to the point made above about oversampling of Republicans. Does anyone know if the prevalence of cell phones has affected polling?

    No, that’s been worked into the models.

    Quite simply, the models suck. We learned that in the primaries and the national models are much worse than the statewide ones. Let’s break this down simply:

    1) this is a state by state election. National polls are indicative of overall popularity but mean fuckall for the election. Ignore them.
    2) state polls are of varying quality. 50 models is really goddamn hard to do. Since everyone agrees that each campaign are taking steps to mobile their base, and that it’s a real phenomenon, what that really means is that they are fucking with the underlying assumptions that drive the models. IOW, mobilizing your base means breaking the polls.
    3) Go look at pollster or 538 and see how much variation there is in the polling outfits. If the polls were good, and the models were good, they’d all agree. They agree more-or-less on trends, but not on base performance. That means that most of the polls have wrong models. So we take an average of wrong models and hope that it’s more right? Well, that’s crap too. The state polls appear to be decent at noting trends (when the model doesn’t change) but that’s about it.

    They oversampled Republicans because they think that Palin will turn out the base far more than Obama will. That was true in 2000 and 2004, so you can’t fault them too much, but I don’t see how the Palin celebrity effect will overcome the Obama ground game. I think the best the GOP can hope for is to match the Democratic turnout this year, which loses them the election pretty handily even if they win most independents. My dad’s little conservative town in the weeds in Oregon has an Obama field office which he’s going to volunteer at starting next week. That’s what will win the election.

    I live in CA, so canvassing is pretty pointless here. I’m writing checks and will do phone banking to other states (praise be unlimited long-distance on my cell). If you live in a contested state, walk precincts. It really does work. If not, money and phone banking.

  140. 140
    Conservatively Liberal says:

    Nonsense! My goodness, is anyone here actually not chemically altered in some way?

    I thought it was a requirement. CL +20 (or more) hits, plus the prescribed pharmaceuticals.

    Comfortably numb…

    Newsweek story about Palin and the emotional abuse of her sister’s kids.

    Good. Her actions are reprehensible. I know that makes her even more attractive to the fundies but sane people who have had to deal with a messy divorce that involved kids will relate to this.

  141. 141
    Martin says:

    Without having seen the ad, I’ll say that this appears to be some sort of turning point. Kevin Drum says that it’s clear John McCain is going to offer eight weeks of the culture war and that no matter who wins, he’s setting us down the path to an ungovernable country. For a guy that is supposedly not drawn to hyperbole, it’s a pretty strong conclusion for Drum to reach.

    You gotta do what you gotta do to win. Palin didn’t get McCain what he needed in the polls, so he has to hit harder. The problem with Presidential elections is that if you lose, you haven’t burned your bridges to larger things. This is it – this is all there is. If you are losing you have no incentive to not do ANYTHING to win. Reputation shot to hell? So what. If you lose your shot at the oval, you’ve got no reputation worth preserving.

    Remember, the nastier McCain gets, the worse his internal polling looks.

  142. 142
    LiberalTarian says:

    I think a better application of Democratic governors in swing states is to make sure the elections are fair.

    Not tilted, not tied up in litigation, but fair. It’s been a long time since Republicans could win in a fair fight.

    Can we start a pool on McCain’s concession speech? I get the first time: 2100 EST. Everybody send me two bucks. ;)

  143. 143
    SGEW says:

    Hokay. It all makes sense now. Dig it:

    They did vet Gov. Palin. They knew all about the pregnancies, and the Bridge to Nowhere, and Troopergate, and all the rest of it. I mean, come on . . . they must have, right?

    So why did they pick her? Because she is the Perfect Storm of media distraction! US Weekly! National Enquirer! She’s on the cover of every magazine regardless of her merits as a V.P. And they knew that every media personality would shine an unholy spotlight of attention on her background and just titter themselves silly over the sordid little details.

    So now, any attack on McCain or the Republican party can be spun as just more “sexist” and “baseless speculation” about Sarah Palin’s “personal life.” Because they’re trusting that the voting population won’t be able to tell the difference between attacking the Bush tax cuts and calling a lovable Hockey Mom(tm) a bad mother or whatever. And they may be right.

    Genius!

    (weeps for nation)

  144. 144
    Notorious P.A.T. says:

    I’ve heard a lot about Obama’s great ground game, but I haven’t seen any evidence of it.

    I was feeling the same way, until Sunday and Monday night Obama volunteers stopped by to see if I was registered.

  145. 145
    Notorious P.A.T. says:

    That’s all I saw when reading that comment.

    Sexist pig!

    Seriously though, I know women who are at least that good-looking but aren’t dumb as posts. Why waste time on the likes of her?

  146. 146
    LiberalTarian says:

    So, I looked up the lipstick-on-a-pig hoopla.

    Guess they’re glad he didn’t say putting McCain/Palin in the Whitehouse is like putting a turd in the punchbowl, eh?? It would have been spot on IMO.

    And really, considering every time they make some kind of promise everyone is thinking they are putting lipstick on a pig, you might think the McCain campaign might NOT want to draw attention to that statement.

    Lol. They are honestly claiming Obama called Palin a pig. Everyone knows if you want to insult a woman you call her a PORKER. Man, I am having too much fun with this one. He should have said you can’t put lipstick on pork barrel spending. Bwahahahaha.

  147. 147
    TenguPhule says:

    Putting lipstick on a pig does not change the fact that it tastes delicious once you cut it up into bitesize bits.

  148. 148
    cain says:

    btw folks.. it’s ‘moron’ not ‘moran’.. the spelling was driving me nuts, since Moran is some african tribe in Kenya :) (according to Google)

    cain

  149. 149
    Conservatively Liberal says:

    the spelling was driving me nuts, since Moran is some african tribe in Kenya :) (according to Google)

    No, it is a reference to the right winger holding a sing where he spelled moron “moran”.

    It’s a right wing thang… ;)

  150. 150
    Notorious P.A.T. says:

    McCain is going to offer eight weeks of the culture war and that no matter who wins, he’s setting us down the path to an ungovernable country.

    Wow, I really thought the Republican party cared about good governing.

    How is Karl Rove doing in his effort to rebuild post-Katrina?

  151. 151
    Conservatively Liberal says:

    Speelingfix’d! ;)

    the spelling was driving me nuts, since Moran is some african tribe in Kenya :) (according to Google)

    No, it is a reference to the right winger holding a sign where he spelled moron “moran”.

    It’s a right wing thang… ;)

  152. 152
    KRK says:

    cain,

    Not sure if your correction is meant in earnest, but I believe folks are making an intentional misspelling as an homage to this.

  153. 153
    Notorious P.A.T. says:

    The problem with Presidential elections is that if you lose, you haven’t burned your bridges to larger things. This is it – this is all there is.

    I see your point, but I do recall a guy who “lost” a presidential election but went on to make a documentary that was a worldwife phenomena, win an Academy Award and a Nobel Prize, and write a bestselling book.

    Maybe McCain would do the same. hahahahahahahaahahahah!

  154. 154
    Conservatively Liberal says:

    Josh Marshall about the McCain “sex ed” ad:

    … McCain is pure sleaze. Sound harsh? Sure. But any other interpretation of the man at this point amounts to willful obliviousness or an embrace of the fantasy that he somehow doesn’t know what his campaign is doing in his name. This is the race he’s decided to run. Now what do you do about it?

    I agree. The ad is pure sleaze. White kids, a smiling black man and sex. If your dog is nearby when the ad runs, check its ears to see if they are bleeding.

  155. 155
    TenguPhule says:

    McCain is going to offer eight weeks of the culture war and that no matter who wins, he’s setting us down the path to an ungovernable country.

    On the bright side, Rove’s life won’t be worth a bucket of warm spit in that country.

  156. 156
    liberal says:

    Brian J wrote,

    I hate to sound like a ten-year-old boy, but if McCain wins, I’m really not sure how I’d handle it.

    Me, I keep myself from feeling bad by quoting the classics.

    Schiller: “Against stupidity/The gods themselves/Contend in vain.”

    Shakespeare: Henry V’s Saint Crispian day speech.

    Milton: Paradise Lost: a piece excerpted by Steinbeck in his eponymously named In Dubious Battle:

    Innumerable force of Spirits armed,
    That durst dislike his reign, and, me preferring,
    His utmost power with adverse power opposed
    In dubious battle on the plains of Heaven
    And shook his throne. What though the field be lost?
    All is not lost—the unconquerable will,
    And study of revenge, immortal hate,
    And courage never to submit or yield:
    And what is else not to be overcome?

    Not sure it’s a good idea to be approvingly quoting Satan, of course; nor am I all that strong on “literary interpretation”.

    :-)

  157. 157
    Conservatively Liberal says:

    Dropped in at TalkLeft, and Bloviating Tiresome Dipshit is still battling Jeralyn every chance he gets. Armando may say he is for Obama but it is in word only, he is still pining for Hillary so Armando is sticking up for Palin by defending her in the most vacuous ways.

    Now BTD is fighting with Jeralyn about the (Palin) sister’s divorce case where the judge warned the sister that if she did not protect her kids from any disparagement of their father by Sarah and her family, then the judge would grant custody of the kids to the father.

    Armando is on a rant that the judge has no right to limit the first amendment rights of Palin in this way. Jeralyn correctly points out that the judge did no such thing, and that all the judge said was that if the mother allows the kids to be exposed to the relatives talking shit about their dad, then the judge would (properly) consider that a form of child abuse and remove the kids from the mother and grant custody to the father.

    Either way, watch out for a BTD rant later today (he warned everyone there about it) about how the judge is evil and how Sarah and her sister were wronged by his abusing his powers.

    While the father was stupid in the Taser incident, I don’t think it is that big of a deal. Palin did not make an issue out of it until almost two years after the fact (once the marriage was over), and it was a complaint of convenience for Palin.

    When I was about 12 or 13, friends of mine and I found an old roadside ice maker and dispenser. It had been ripped apart but there were still some electrical parts in it. We took a couple of relays out of it and through experimentation we discovered that you could wire it up with a 9 volt battery and make one hell of a shocker. It had a 1 Hp. coil, and by connecting the electromagnet contacts to the lower contacts and then running wire leads off of the lower contacts, you could shock the shit out of someone with it.

    Rest assured, mayhem ensued. We connected the wire leads to two flat steel bars to get a better connection (more shock!). Then we stacked three 9 volt batteries in series (27 volts in) and tripled the fun! That relay was around for a couple of years, and every single party it came out for some fun.

    One guy was passed out on the couch, and everyone watched as we carefully shoved one metal bar down the front of his pants and put the other one inside one of his socks. I sat on the coffee table and everyone quietly did a countdown. The guy must have come a foot off of the couch when I closed the contacts. The contacts were rough, so to improve the effect, you would grind the contacts once you closed them and it had the effect of opening and closing the contacts repeatedly, doing the same for the output of the coil.

    Boys like doing things like this and I have no doubt that the kid asked for it. Our ‘shocker’ was used by lots of kids and everyone had fun with it. We would have contests to see who could hold on to the bars the longest, and nobody could make it past five seconds. That sucker put out one hell of a kick.It does not excuse the actions of the trooper one bit, but he did not shoot his kid and fry his ass with the Taser (as Armando claims).

  158. 158
    Bedlam UK says:

    Didn’t know where to post this, but its simply brilliantly funny.

    Enjoy Christ leaves Christianity after hearing the GOP speech

    :)

  159. 159
    Laura W says:

    I’m not even fully caffinated yet and am inexplicably torturing myself with Joe Blow. Andrea is sitting in for mindless Mika. Joe has been on the ruby-lipped pig for an hour. He tells Pat B a while ago: “we have to move on…” and now he’s spouting the sexism bs. Andrea has truly taken to rolling her eyes and holding her breath, as she can not rebut as she clearly wants to. You can see her tongue bleeding down her blazer. Plus, his interruption ratio is through the roof this morn. Andrea can not finish a sentence. Now he’s pummeling Linda Douglas. Why does MSNBC give this gaboon a forum. WHY?

  160. 160
    Conservatively Liberal says:

    I’m not even fully caffinated yet and am inexplicably torturing myself with Joe Blow.

    I have never watched Morning Joe, and I never will. I was a regular Imus watcher, and IMO he got a raw deal. The only guy on TV who had the guts to call Cheney and Bush “war criminals”, and while he inserted his foot in his mouth at times he has done some very good charity work that has helped children (and their parents) of all races. Imus was one of the biggest voices against mercury in children’s vaccines and calling for investigation in to any ties to Asperger syndrome and Autism and the vaccines.

    Imus was a lot of things, but he was not what they made him out to be. Joe can take a long walk off a short pier, I wouldn’t waste a minute listening to his right-wing shit.I didn’t always agree with Imus, but at least he was entertaining to listen to.

  161. 161
    Laura W says:

    I didn’t always agree with Imus, but at least he was entertaining to listen to.

    Agreed. Sadly, I didn’t start tuning into him till maybe a year before he was booted. He had the best guests, gave good interview, and I enjoyed a lot of the raunchy comedy stuff.

    Chuck Todd just spent 10 minutes trying to make the point that THEY SHOULD NOT BE GIVING THE SWINE MAKE-UP ISSUE ANY AIR TIME.

    It’s too early in the morning to be using my outside voice.
    I feel bad for Chuck, having to slum and spar with Blowviator.

  162. 162

    I really thought Obama had made the lipstick-on-pig comment a while back, way before Palin came on the scene. If he said it recently, since her ‘debut’ it is most certainly not the first time he’s said it.

    Anyway, Obama keeps playing the nice guy. When Olbermann asked for a response, on behalf of Rachel Maddow, to the ‘uppity’ comment by Westmoreland, Obama swung SO wide around that issue. He would not even GO there, but kept going on about voters ‘kicking the tires.’ If he didn’t want to comment, he could at least have said something like, ‘You know, Keith, people are going to say offensive things in a presidential race. I just want to focus on the campaign so I’m not going to comment on that.’

    TG for Stephen Colbert who came right out and called Westmoreland a stupid cracker. It’s just that much better coming from a fellow SC’ian, who knows his crackers.

  163. 163
    Laura W says:

    Well, McCain called Hillary a PIG!
    Greenwald this morn…

  164. 164
    Laura W says:

    Link challenged.

    And I notice the crowd laughed. Loud.
    Probably cuz it’s funny when POWs use that cliche.
    Greenwald this morn…Greenwald this morn…

  165. 165

    Anyway, if anyone wants to compare Palin to something, lay off the pigs. Pigs are pretty decent creatures and as intelligent as dogs. People keep pigs as pets.

    I really think ‘lying sack of shit’ is quite nice and it doesn’t diss the pigs.

  166. 166
    Punchy says:

    For what it’s worth, I will say this: where I live (swing state area), is has become comical how many commercials McCane is running. I am not exaggerating — every other commercial break had one. He is outspending/commercial-ing Obama by a factor of probably 10 in my area. Obama’s going to have to kiss MO goodbye. No way he can counter this.

    BTW, how does McCane afford this many friggin’ ads? 20-30 in one nite, every nite?

  167. 167
    Conservatively Liberal says:

    I really think ‘lying sack of shit’ is quite nice and it doesn’t diss the pigs.

    Ten pounds of shit in a five pound bag describes Palin perfectly. Works for me anyway.

  168. 168
    Walker says:

    Dropped in at TalkLeft, and Bloviating Tiresome Dipshit is still battling Jeralyn every chance he gets. Armando may say he is for Obama but it is in word only, he is still pining for Hillary so Armando is sticking up for Palin by defending her in the most vacuous ways.

    Jerome Armstrong is doing the same thing on MyDD. He is willfully misinterpreting conflicting polls left and right in order to scare everyone.

    The underlying lesson that I have learned from economics and political blogs is that 95% of the Internet is mathematically illiterate. So I am ignoring all this poll analysis.

  169. 169
    Jake says:

    Check out Jake Tapper’s reporting on the conference call put in by the “Palin truth squad” over this lipstick-pig story.

    The unintentional comedy factor from Team McCain is pretty high. You know your campaign’s grasping at straws when the press is instantly pointing out your hypocrisy.

  170. 170
    Heshe says:

    Lie baby, lie!

  171. 171
    dewberry says:

    Jerome Armstrong is doing the same thing on MyDD.

    If Obama had just picked Hillary. That’s the concern troll line.

    It’s all about bloggers wanting to be proven right. It’s actually pretty comical to watch everyone twist themselves in knots to prove how they saw stuff no one else saw.

  172. 172
    Punchy says:

    Let’s see what cliche Obama can use….

    “Lie down with dogs, wake up with fleas”….nope, that trashes Palin’s pooches

    “6 of one, half doz of the other”….ouch, that’s sexist. Women suck at math

    “McCain’s so out of touch, he hears ‘Pop Tarts’ and thinks Brittany Spears”….damn, that’s ageist

  173. 173
    Robert Johnston says:

    . . . the guy’s great with a teleprompter and horrible speaking extemporaneously . . . .

    Watch this and apologize. No teleprompter. Mentions events of the day. Occasionally refers to notes at the podium, but otherwise faces the crowd.

    Next meme, please.

    Obama does speak quite well without a teleprompter and even extemporaneously. Where he doesn’t do well is in the much more specific situation where he tries to give talking point answers to debate or interview questions. The snappy, grossly oversimplified one-liner isn’t his style, and he’s remarkably awkward when he tries to go that way.

    The Democrats’ big problem, and Obama’s in particular, is that they just can’t complete in an election that’s all about the stupid. The Republicans have cornered the market on the truly inane–not that the Democrats aren’t stupid, but they just don’t do deliberately misleading vapidity well at all. Talking point politics is inherently biased in favor of the Republican party, just as issues and reality are biased against Republicans.

  174. 174
    Conservatively Liberal says:

    “Lie down with dogs, wake up with fleas”….nope, that trashes Palin’s pooches

    More like:

    “Lie down with dogs, wake up with fleas”….nope, that says that Palin is a bulldog with fleas. And lipstick!

    :)

  175. 175
    cain says:

    No, it is a reference to the right winger holding a sign where he spelled moron “moran”.

    It’s a right wing thang… ;)

    doh! I completely forgot about that picture. Carry on. I apparently am not aware of all internet traditions! :D

    cain

  176. 176
    thomas says:

    two things
    When is someone going to ask Joe why he killed that woman in his congressional office?
    I thought Lush was the original Oxy Moron

  177. 177
    KRK says:

    If Obama had just picked Hillary. That’s the concern troll line.

    It’s all about bloggers wanting to be proven right. It’s actually pretty comical to watch everyone twist themselves in knots to prove how they saw stuff no one else saw.

    There’s a WHOLE LOTTA this going around the blogs these days. Everyone looking into their crystal balls and concluding that (a) had Hillary won the primary she’d be WAY ahead; and/or (b) had Obama picked Hillary for VP they’d be WAY ahead. Absolutely no doubt in their minds.

    So tedious.

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