Waging A Valiant War on Straw

C’mon, Larison- you are better than this:

So it is interesting to see how much importance Obama boosters are putting on the risibly small “bump” that Obama has received from effectively securing the nomination. They must be a little concerned that their candidate keeps running behind the generic Democratic ballot (at least when not counting leaners) and cannot seem to expand beyond the boundaries of the old Gore-Kerry coalitions despite incredibly favourable circumstances.

According to memorandum, as I write this, the large number of Obama boosters placing a great deal of importance on Obama’s bump? Open Left says “At any rate, this is a faster poll improvement than I expected and I’m an optimist. ” Andrew Sullivan ignores Obama and points out McCain’s standing. Donklephant has a rather underwhelming response and the other big boosterism is from… Fox News.

Looking at the responses to Gallup yesterday, even then the responses were tepid, with Andrew Sullivan noting the beginning of a bump and the rest of the commentary from mostly institutional blogs like the WaPo and the Swamp. All of which makes sense, because polls right now are essentially meaningless, and will be until the conventions. Regardless, I would consider the boosterism of the Gallup polls to be underwhelming, at best (as a point of reference, check out the large blogger reaction to Hillary’s speech on Saturday, or, even more telling, the number of people who have chosen to discuss Obama wearing jeans and tennis shoes to go on a bicycle ride). Granted, I may be missing the overwhelming boosterism and more may show up, or perhaps Larison is just needling Sullivan (which is fun, I guess, but hardly a representative sample).

On the other hand, Eunomia has commented on both polls, but only to tell us the bump is inconsequential- something the tepid response by bloggers would seem to make obvious. Instead of loads of people commenting how big the bump is, we do have on person consistently reminding us how small it is. Duly noted.

Pundit, heal thyself.

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24 replies
  1. 1
    Joshua Norton says:

    McCain has vowed to carry his campaign to all 13 colonies. Obama is going to have to hustle to keep up.

  2. 2
    NR says:

    Though I don’t think polls mean much at this stage either, they are showing that the Democratic base is beginning to unite behind Obama. That’s good news, since ideally, that needs to happen before the convention so that the next two months can be spent going after independent voters.

  3. 3

    […] Update: John Cole questions my claim about Obama boosters, so I should provide some links that show the kind of thing I mean.  Yes, this post was mostly a response to Sullivan and to some of my more Obamaniac commenters, and so I should have specified that I was really referring in this case to one particular Obama booster.  So let’s leave aside the business about Obama boosters.  In any case, isn’t it surprising (and, from an anti-GOP perspective, depressing) that in this most Democratic of years the Democratic nominee has reached 50% for just the first time in national polls against the representative of a deeply loathed party? […]

  4. 4
    Dennis - SGMM says:

    Remember the polls before the start of the Democratic primary? Well, Hillary better choose Obama for VP or I’m voting for McCain.

  5. 5
    libarbarian says:

    Oh, so now Obamabloggers are making a huge deal about how they didn’t make a huge deal over the Obama bump.

    What a bunch of attention whores.

    :).

  6. 6
    nightjar says:

    It is true that polls are usually meaningless until after the convention. But it is equally true we’ve never had an outgoing incumbent preznit with a circa 30 % approval ensconced in concrete for the past 2 and a half years. To say that bodes ill for the nominee from the same party is the understatement of the young century. It is why I’m sort not kidding in saying Daffy Duck could hold his own in polling against Mr. Magoo, at this time.

  7. 7
    DougJ says:

    The bump is consequential.

    The reason the race is as close as it is is because of McCain’s personal popularity. Everyone knows that.

    I don’t think this race is that complicated, despite what others say. Dems have a huge generic advantage, McCain eats into that with his “maverick” shtick, but it’s unlikely he eats into it enough to win.

  8. 8
    passerby says:

    Oh, it’s going to be a long summer.

    T

  9. 9
    Conservatively Liberal says:

    OT, but Dan Abrams reports that Scarlett Johansson says she exchanges emails with Obama, so that makes him a ‘winner’.

    Agreed.

  10. 10
    LarryB says:

    Kos today think’s he sees a “unity bump” in the Gallop data for New Jersey and Georgia, but he’s not exactly drooling over those numbers.

  11. 11
    Gus says:

    ing of a bump and the rest of the commentary from mostly institutional blogs like the WaPo and the Swamp. All of which makes sense, because polls right now are essentially meaningless, and will be until the conventions.

    Exactly. Jesus Christ, anyone else remember Dukakis being up by like 30 points right after winning the nomination?

  12. 12
    Liberal Masochist says:

    Apologies is someone already posted this, but woo hoo woo hoo hoo, woo hoo woo hoo hoo…

    Now you have the Vonage jingle in your head. Sorry about that too.

  13. 13
    jake says:

    Shorter Brown Squirt:

    Can’t we please talk about anything but John McCane? [sob!]

    Woo hoo, indeed.

  14. 14
    Liberal Masochist says:

    Oh yeah and McCain vowed to veto beer to today. There goes Wisconsin!

  15. 15
    John Cole says:

    Liberal Masochist- Report here, immediately.

  16. 16
    HRA says:

    After NH, the polls faded from my view unless I was watching a program where they showed them. IOW I did not search for them. The daily Gallup poll is painful.

    At the present, I think it’s much too early to define them for November. I always thought October was the best and truer time for them.

  17. 17

    John,

    I highlight the Gallup poll nearly every single day as a quick measure of where opinion MAY be swinging. I don’t look at it for any other reason except that.

  18. 18
    Conservatively Liberal says:

    While most polling was pretty good in a Democrat on Democrat contest, I think I agree with a pundit recently on MSNBC who says that current polling methods are not going to be accurate because the demographics of the electorate are completely different this time. With the right in a mess, Obama bringing in lots of new voters and the racist element of the Democratic party in revolt, polling is not going to mean much until this race gets close to the end. Even then they are still going to be questionable IMO. I think this is one BIG issue that will not be resolved until after the election.

    Once this election is over, the demographic results of the election are going to be interesting to review. This is a ‘first’ in the presidential elections, and the results ought to provide an interesting snapshot of where we are in this country in regards to race issues.

  19. 19
    Davebo says:

    Come on guys. At this point polls are about as relevant as my mosquito sprayer (actually less relevant because that bitch is working overtime these days).

  20. 20
    patroclus says:

    Obama wore tennis shoes and blue jeans??@!! That’s way awesomer than yet another stupid poll!

  21. 21
    Pug says:

    I thought Obama’s casual wear was better than most Americans I see at Wal Mart.

    You have to admit, most of us real Americans dress like a bunch of slobs. Probably the best example was people showing up to view Ronald Reagan lying in state in the Capitol. They came wearing shorts, T-shirts and beer bellies. That was pathetic.

  22. 22

    Ugh. Got a mental image of “McCain eating into the Unity Bump with his Maverick Schtick.” Whether it’s a dance or dinner, it’s still disturbing.

  23. 23
    Grand Moff Texan says:

    C’mon, Larison- you are better than this

    Obviously not.
    .

  24. 24
    Mike P says:

    I don’t get the rush here….the Dems just came out of a long and fairly heated primary that literally came down to the last week and Larison expects…what exactly? Obama and Hillary basically split the party vote. Does he think all of Hillary’s backers are ready at this very moment, to move on? I don’t think so. We’re literally less than two weeks out from Obama’s winning the pledged delegate battle. Check back with me in early-mid July before I start to worry at all about the “bump”.

Trackbacks & Pingbacks

  1. […] Update: John Cole questions my claim about Obama boosters, so I should provide some links that show the kind of thing I mean.  Yes, this post was mostly a response to Sullivan and to some of my more Obamaniac commenters, and so I should have specified that I was really referring in this case to one particular Obama booster.  So let’s leave aside the business about Obama boosters.  In any case, isn’t it surprising (and, from an anti-GOP perspective, depressing) that in this most Democratic of years the Democratic nominee has reached 50% for just the first time in national polls against the representative of a deeply loathed party? […]

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