I just don’t buy these polls:
New York Democrat Hillary Clinton had a good day in the Newsmax/Zogby daily tracking poll ahead of Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary, following a strong debate performance in Philadelphia Wednesday night, and now holds a 47% to 43% advantage over Barack Obama of Illinois.
The two-day tracking survey, which was conducted April 16-17, 2008, showed that 10% were either undecided or supported someone else.
The telephone survey, conducted using live operators working out of Zogby’s on-site call center in Upstate New York, included 602 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.
The race appears stable, as Clinton retained a sizable lead in western Pennsylvania, including Pittsburgh, while Obama continues to lead by a large percentage in eastern Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia. In the central part of the state, including the state capital of Harrisburg, Clinton leads by eight points.
I have no analysis or anything really other than my gut (and this being a blog, what else do I need!), but I just do not think the race can be that close. It would really, really surprise me if it is that close, and I fully expect a Clinton win by anywhere from 6-12 points. I will be glad to be wrong, but I just think a four point race is unrealistic.
Not that any of it matters anyway, because even if Clinton loses PA, let alone win by close to double-digits, the race will go on, even if the delegate math does not get any better for her.