NY Up for Grabs?

A new Marist poll has McCain/Rice beating any combination of Clinton/Obama. In New York. I don’t trust the results of this holding up in November, nor do I think there is the slightest chance the GOP will put Rice on the ticket. I think Rice is far too close to Bush, and the Republicans will want to make a clean break with the Bush administration, especially her signature failure of managing Iraq prior to McCain’s surge strategy. He will do all he can to paint Iraq as a strategic failure led by Republicans that ignored his advice early on. That narrative disappears if Rice is by his side while he makes it.

On top of that, putting Rice on the GOP ticket might actually cause the Solid South vote to waver. Condi and McCain do nothing to reassure the arch conservatives who want to shut down the border and remove affirmative action. I also think putting a single black female on the ticket will push a few voters who can’t stand at least one of those categories away from the ticket.






62 replies
  1. 1
    calipygian says:

    Plus as one of the people present at the principle’s meeting that approved of torture, she is officially a war criminal by Nuremburg/Hague standards. I’d find it highly unusual if McCain actually picked a person that approved of methods that North Vietnam used on him, but, then again, there is that pathetic picture of McCain blubbering on the shoulder of the man who savaged him in such a blatently racist manner during the 2000 South Carolina primary, so I guess anything is possible. Even McCain picking a torturer for the ticket.

  2. 2
    jag says:

    The other problem is that Rice spoke about how Obama’s speech was important… we can’t have any radical liberals like that on the ticket.

  3. 3
    jrg says:

    It seems like putting Rice on the ticket would make sense to the GOP.

    It would be similar to the “alienate the moderates” strategy that Rove pursued, only this time it would be “alienate the moderates and the base”.

    What could possibly go wrong?

  4. 4
    Tim says:

    McCain/Anybody winning NY?

    Not gonna happen.

  5. 5
    Zifnab says:

    I don’t trust the results of this holding up in November, nor do I think there is the slightest chance the GOP will put Rice on the ticket. I think Rice is far too close to Bush ethnic, and the Republicans will want to make a clean break with the Bush administration stay as pastey white as possible, especially her signature failure of managing Iraq prior to McCain’s surge strategy considering the OMG SCARY BLACK PEOPLEZ AND BROWN PEOPLEZ AND LIE-BRULZ AND SHRILL WOMEN VOTERS platform they’re running on.

    Let’s get real. If the GOP wanted to distance itself from Iraq and Bush, they wouldn’t be filibustering and running interference for him over the last year and a half. The Republican Party is the party where you never have to say you’re sorry. Expect the lead up to the November Election to contain a great deal of doomsaying about evil socialists and secret Muslim conspiracies and people coming to your house to take your guns, abort your fetuses, and raise your taxes. Don’t expect for one minute that anyone is going to openly break from the Bush White House or its policies.

  6. 6
    crw says:

    Too many Democrats are still in a snit over the primary for any polling this far out to have meaning. Lets see what the polls say once things are settled, and Democrats are staring down the double barrel of endless war and Bush destroy-the-public-sphere economic policy.

  7. 7
    jag says:

    Tim: McCain/Giuliani could probably win NY. There’s plenty of Repubs in this state outside of the four boroughs.

  8. 8
    cleek says:

    people just don’t know Rice. give the Dems a couple months of running her Best Of clips and her negatives will be down there with Cheney.

  9. 9
    Snail says:

    Tim: McCain/Giuliani could probably win NY. There’s plenty of Repubs in this state outside of the four boroughs.

    Wouldn’t that be five boroughs?

  10. 10
    Gus says:

    Also, let’s not forget certain rumors about her sexual orientation.

  11. 11
    calipygian says:

    Four Boroughs. Except for Bloomberg, there are no Republicans in New York County.

  12. 12
    wingnuts to iraq says:

    someone knock up condi. Between Birth Pangs and blacks having slavery has a Birth defect, this woman can only think about babies.

    Not to mention she’s the most inept, failed, SoS and NSA director in the history of the US.

    I guess that’s why the GOP loves her.

    The Peter Principle at work.

  13. 13
    torrentprime says:

    …And her un”Christian”-like welcome of a gay staffer’s partner’s mother as his “mother-in-law.” Oh, the fundamentalists went nuts over that one.

    Surely having a rumored-to-be-lesbian, gay-lovin’ black woman on the ticket will not hit the GOP target demo in the South?

  14. 14
    Tim says:

    Tim: McCain/Giuliani could probably win NY. There’s plenty of Repubs in this state outside of the four boroughs.

    Plenty but not enough. NY is solidly anti-war, but your average voter is just starting to realize that McCain is pro-surge 24/7.

  15. 15
    Jen says:

    She can’t be all that lesbian if she thinks Bush is her husband.

    I think Condi would be a positively disastrous choice, and as such, I wholeheartedly support it. But, I don’t think there’s anyone McCain could pick that would rescue them. It’s just bad news, worse news, and horrifying news all around. I don’t think it’s going to be the year for more of the same.

  16. 16
    4tehlulz says:

    I guess Marist didn’t get the memo that a) hell will freeze over before Obama and Clinton share a ticket and b) Rice is considered a traitor because she called slavery a birth defect.

    They’re still better than Zogby, though.

  17. 17
    Sasha says:

    Don’t expect for one minute that anyone is going to openly break from the Bush White House or its policies.

    I tend to agree, but the mere appearance McCain might could help shore up fence-straddlers.

  18. 18
    Martin says:

    I have a Zogby poll here showing that Giuliani beats Clinton 48-43 in the General and Obama beats McCain 46-43.

    Gotta wait for the nomination to be settled before GE polls start to work right.

  19. 19
    linda says:

    besides, if condi’s on the ticket, however will the gop be able to remind voters that obama is, uh, you know… black.

    ;-)

  20. 20
    The Other Steve says:

    I think we are seeing a reverse Dukakis effect going on here.

    In 1988, Dukakis was up 10% in the polls in the summer prior to the election. It was looking quite good for him, in fact. But by November, the ground had shifted as people got to know the candidates better.

  21. 21
    jag says:

    Wouldn’t that be five boroughs?

    Staten Island votes Republican pretty much always.

  22. 22
    The Other Steve says:

    I think Condi would be a positively disastrous choice, and as such, I wholeheartedly support it. But, I don’t think there’s anyone McCain could pick that would rescue them. It’s just bad news, worse news, and horrifying news all around. I don’t think it’s going to be the year for more of the same.

    The interesting thing about the Condi pick, is it takes race off the table completely. The debate will be over the issues, and nothing else.

    Obviously I find that appealing, but I’m sure the Republicans do not because they know they can’t win on the issues.

  23. 23
    torrentprime says:

    OtherSteve:
    True, and for another reason: Condi gave at least sideways props to Obama for his race speech, and if Condi agrees with Obama on some of his response to the Wright issue, it helps defuse it, and that is really all the GOP has going for them right now.
    You can tell the right is about ready to treat Obama as a genuine threat; RedState has been hammering him lately, a sign of respect and fear if ever there was one.

  24. 24
    Krista says:

    calipygian Says:

    Plus as one of the people present at the principle’s meeting that approved of torture, she is officially a war criminal by Nuremburg/Hague standards. ….

    I believe it’s being referred to as a meeting of Principals, not principles. Trust me, there were NO principles present at any time during that meeting.

  25. 25

    Condoleezza Rice? Condoleezza Rice? Condoleezza Rice, sounds like Mexican dish. Maybe we should put her on a plate and send her to Mexico so the Mexicans will eat her. White Power!

  26. 26
    McGuffin says:

    I remember the notion of Condi as VP being floated in wingnut circles during the early panic stages of Obama’s increasing popularity. They were generally shouted down by the anti-affirmative action hard liners.

    And now this. Watching the GOP’s realpolitik musings vie with their racist DNA is endlessly entertaining.

  27. 27
    The Other Steve says:

    You can tell the right is about ready to treat Obama as a genuine threat; RedState has been hammering him lately, a sign of respect and fear if ever there was one.

    I would think Redstate would be talking more about how to get the American Occupation Force out of the Confederacy.

  28. 28
    joe says:

    Too many Democrats are still in a snit over the primary for any polling this far out to have meaning.

    QFT.

    Remember when Ann Coulter was going to support Hillary over McCain?

  29. 29

    The Other Steve Says:

    I would think Redstate would be talking more about how to get the American Occupation Force out of the Confederacy.

    April 10th, 2008 at 2:32 pm

    Anybody try luring them out with S’Mores flavored Schnapps?

  30. 30
    DM says:

    Considering the chances of an Obama/Clinton ticket are pretty much nil what’s the value of this poll as anything but as a statistician’s “what if” game?

  31. 31
    some guy says:

    All this demonstrates is that Clinton is electoral poison, no matter which position she occupies on the ticket.

  32. 32

    WTF’s up with all these polls showing McCain winning? Why is that meme out there?

    If McCain wins, we’re fucking doomed.

  33. 33
    Tim F. says:

    No, NY is not up for grabs. It’s an outlier poll. However, just in case I’m wrong I couldn’t encourage the RNC enough to sink everything they’ve got into making a play for the state.

  34. 34
    Zuzu says:

    people just don’t know Rice. give the Dems a couple months of running her Best Of clips and her negatives will be down there with Cheney.

    Yep. I just imagine this one being looped ad infinitum:

    I believe the title of the memo was “Bin Laden determined to attack inside the United States.”

  35. 35
    montysano says:

    Ah, you crazy optimistic pony-wishers over here at Balloon Juice.

    So, do you really think that if Condi is chosen as VP, the average American will get down to some researchin’ about her and her record? Or….. will they instead swallow whatever narrative is pouring out of the Boob Tube? If the heads of CNN, CBS, et al think that McCain/Rice is a narrative that will sell, then it will be sold. Recent history has shown us that Americans can be made to buy/believe almost anything.

    Most of us here are relatively well informed; we know who Rice is and what her record is. But don’t kid yourself: as a story, as a narrative, as fodder for bobbleheads like Chris Matthews to yammer about, “The Saga of VP Rice” has tremendous potential.

  36. 36
    scarshapedstar says:

    Gimme a fucking break. People are gonna vote for Bush’s girlfriend?

  37. 37
    montysano says:

    WTF’s up with all these polls showing McCain winning? Why is that meme out there?

    Read my comment just above.

  38. 38

    Read my comment just above.

    IOW, we’re fucked.

  39. 39
    montysano says:

    I just bought the 30th anniversary release of “Network”, and my God what a fabulous, prescient movie.

    Howard Beale:

    Because less than 3 percent of you people read books.

    Because less than 15 percent of you read newspapers.

    Because the only truth you know is what you get over this tube.

    Right now, there is a whole, an entire generation that never knew anything that didn’t come out of this tube.

    This tube is the gospel, the ultimate revelation.

    This tube can make or break presidents, popes, prime ministers.

    This tube is the most awesome goddamn force in the whole godless world.

    And woe is us if it ever falls into the hands of the wrong people…….

    And when the 12th largest company in the world controls the most awesome goddamn propaganda force in the whole godless world, who knows what shit will be peddled for truth on this network……

    Television is not the truth. Television’s a goddamn amusement park. Television is a circus, a carnival, a traveling troupe of acrobats, storytellers, dancers, singers, jugglers, sideshow freaks, lion tamers, and football players.

    Res Ipsa Loquitur

  40. 40
    Neal says:

    Speaking of black people from that side of the isle, anyone see Colin Powell’s comments on Reverend Wright and Obama’s “More Perfect Union” Speech?
    Also, has anyone noticed that if you take “More Perfect Union” and rearrange those beginning letters you can make “M.U.P.”..?

    Slow day at the office.

  41. 41
    Tsulagi says:

    She can’t be all that lesbian if she thinks Bush is her husband.

    Sure she can. In that duo, one is femme and one is butch. When Condi’s in a good mood, she lets him play the butch husband.

    A new Marist poll has McCain/Rice beating any combination of Clinton/Obama. In New York.

    A new AP poll now has McCain tied nationally with either Hillary or Obama. According to that poll, the ladies have been leaving the MUP in a big way. Looks like he needs to turn on his transcender jets to get the Obama girls back.

  42. 42
    montysano says:

    A new AP poll now has McCain tied nationally with either Hillary or Obama. According to that poll, the ladies have been leaving the MUP in a big way. Looks like he needs to turn on his transcender jets to get the Obama girls back.

    What is “MUP”??

  43. 43
    DM says:

    What is “MUP”??

    Magical Unity Pony, a derogatory slang-term for Obama.

  44. 44
    4tehlulz says:

    >>What is “MUP”??

    N00b detected.

    Magical Unity Pony = aka the Scary Black Man Obama

  45. 45
    McGuffin says:

    But don’t kid yourself: as a story, as a narrative, as fodder for bobbleheads like Chris Matthews to yammer about, “The Saga of VP Rice” has tremendous potential.

    Not likely. The woman has all the gravitas of a 9th grader giving a half-assed, overdue social-studies book report.

    Oh wait…

  46. 46
    montysano says:

    Gimme a fucking break. People are gonna vote for Bush’s girlfriend?

    Don’t misunderstand: I hope I’m dead wrong. I would hope that choosing Condi as VP would cause most people to snicker and point and make rude gestures.

    The woman has all the gravitas of a 9th grader giving a half-assed, overdue social-studies book report.

    Oh wait…

    Exactly.

  47. 47
    Hypatia says:

    If Rice does get the nod, it will be the most spectacular example of failing upward since her current boss. I think she’s a long shot, though. She carries a lot of baggage and although her incompetence hasn’t actually hurt her approval ratings much, it will get much closer examination if she’s on the ticket. The hard right hates her guts and McCain doesn’t need any more problems with them. She’s untried as a candidate and leaving aside her sexual orientation, the press will be looking into the private life of a single woman never married.

  48. 48
    dbrown says:

    Rice is as likely to be McDumb’s VP as Obama is to select bilhary … whaaaat a dummmb asss pole.

  49. 49
    Zifnab says:

    Magical Unity Pony, a derogatory slang-term for Obama.

    Derogatory nothin’. I’m voting Obama and I’d be happy to wear that bumper sticker.

  50. 50
    Halteclere says:

    Rice is just someone who was promoted beyond her capability. How many managers suffer the same fate? At the best her accomplishments have been mediocre. If there wasn’t such a powerful figure as Cheney pulling so many of the policy strings would she have done a more outstanding job? There is always that chance. But, given the environment that she had to work within, she has nothing to show for her time at the office. And what is the guarantee that she won’t allow herself to be thwarted again?

    So why in the world does anyone think Rice would bring anything to the presidential election table as a VP? My conclusion is that she is the only high-profile recognizable Republican that has what the Democrats have in spades (especially if Obama wins the Democratic nomination): sophistication and style, relative youth, is an intellectual, and is a minority.

    Basically, conservatives are pushing Rice as a subconscious counter to the rest of the GOP – old, white and stodgy.

    Or as I like to think about it, Rice is their cry for help.

  51. 51
    Soylent Green says:

    FYI, MUP, coined here a few months back, not all that derogatory. Followers are MUPpets.

  52. 52
    Brachiator says:

    Halteclere Says:

    Rice is just someone who was promoted beyond her capability. How many managers suffer the same fate? At the best her accomplishments have been mediocre. If there wasn’t such a powerful figure as Cheney pulling so many of the policy strings would she have done a more outstanding job? There is always that chance. But, given the environment that she had to work within, she has nothing to show for her time at the office. And what is the guarantee that she won’t allow herself to be thwarted again?

    There is something vaguely sexist about this. The entire Bush Administration, from the top down, was promoted beyond their capability. Why single Condi out here?

    Cheney has more power, but exercises it with all the intelligence of a sponge. Rumsfeld presided over one of the most spectacular military blunders in American history. And Dubya is dumber than a sack of hammers, and has succeeded through sheer bullheaded tenacity, and the inability of the Democrats to stand up to him, or to make a coherent case for change to the American people.

    So why in the world does anyone think Rice would bring anything to the presidential election table as a VP?

    Beats me. Rice does not have any particular constituency that she would bring to balance the ticket. Nor could she run on the strength of her foreign policy credentials. She has no experience as a political campaigner, and would remind opponents of all the failures of the Bush Administration.

    Given this, I would love to see her as a VP candidate. As one local talk show host here put it, the GOP ticket would be Leeza and the Geezer.

  53. 53
    Tax Analyst says:

    There is something vaguely sexist about this. The entire Bush Administration, from the top down, was promoted beyond their capability. Why single Condi out here?

    Actually, I don’t think that remark has a sexist connotation. Condi’s singled out here because her name is getting bandied about as a possible Veep candidate. Based on her credentials/accomplishments, or to be more exact, the lack thereof, that’s ludicrous, although no more ludicrous that any number of other GOP contenders for the 2nd-banana slot.

    I think the only way she could get the nod is if she could pull a Cheney and be in charge of vetting the VP candidates, but given her Foreign Policy record she might not even be able to make that work.

    But she does give great Photo-Op.

  54. 54
    Brachiator says:

    I think the only way she could get the nod is if she could pull a Cheney and be in charge of vetting the VP candidates, but given her Foreign Policy record she might not even be able to make that work.

    Since Cheney pretty much vetted himself to be VP, this is not out of the realm of possibility.

    On the other hand, I suppose that Condi might be a stronger VP candidate than, say, Mitt Romney, Master of the Empty Suit.

  55. 55
    josefina says:

    There is something vaguely sexist about this. The entire Bush Administration, from the top down, was promoted beyond their capability. Why single Condi out here?

    Because the poll singled out Condi as a potential VP candidate, amongst all the other promoted-beyond-their-capability members of the Bush administration.

    There is something vaguely inadequate about your reeding skillz.

  56. 56
    josefina says:

    There is something vaguely sexist about this. The entire Bush Administration, from the top down, was promoted beyond their capability. Why single Condi out here?

    Because the poll singled out Condi as a potential VP candidate, amongst all the other promoted-beyond-their-capability members of the Bush administration.

    There is something vaguely inadequate about your reeding skillz.

  57. 57
    josefina says:

    There is something vaguely sexist about this. The entire Bush Administration, from the top down, was promoted beyond their capability. Why single Condi out here?

    Because the poll singled out Condi as a potential VP candidate, amongst all the other promoted-beyond-their-capability members of the Bush administration.

    There is something vaguely inadequate about your reeding skillz.

  58. 58
    skippy says:

    and, aside from the problem that this poll only works if no votes are counted in any other state in the country, and that either obama or clinton will have to have a lobotomy to get over their dislike of one another, the margins of victory for mclame/condi are only 3 points or 5 points depending on which dem is on top (no jokes, please)…i am quite sure both figures are within the margin of error.

    also, if only the votes of john mccain and condaleeza rice are counted next november, a mccain/rice ticket beats obama/clinton by 100%.

  59. 59
    Halteclere says:

    There is something vaguely sexist about this.

    No. Sexism has nothing to do with it. I think some conservatives are afraid to replay the Kennedy vs. Nixon visual match-up again, and are looking for someone (and they think Rice would fit the bill) to not be a dim bulb when standing beside Obama’s spotlight. No sexism. Obama, who will most probably be the Democratic nominee, has style and poise that most all other conservatives can’t match (issues – that can be more of an even playing field). Rice is an accomplished person. But just not accomplished (in this current administration anyway) as the head of a important cabinet position.

    Actually, I don’t think that remark has a sexist connotation. Condi’s singled out here because her name is getting bandied about as a possible Veep candidate.

    and

    Because the poll singled out Condi as a potential VP candidate, amongst all the other promoted-beyond-their-capability members of the Bush administration.

    Thanks for actually reading what I wrote.

  60. 60
    RSA says:

    Rice does not have any particular constituency that she would bring to balance the ticket.

    You mean she wouldn’t even carry the university professor contingent of the Republican party?

  61. 61
    Zuzu says:

    The recent Frontline documentary re Iraq spent a fair amount of time pointing out that Rice had a pretty tough time in that room. Evidently Rummy and Cheney just refused to take her seriously, regarding her as a lightweight, an overblown academic, and constantly ran end runs around her both as Nat’l Sec. Advisor and Sec. of State.

  62. 62
    blog says:

    Rice has accomplished little of anything of merit while in office under Bush. so much for her distinguished career, better head back to academia Madam Rice.

    while this seems a negative quality, look who currently resides in the white house, now… the voters just might be stupid enough to elect the ‘100 years war Iraq’ candidate and the ineffective Rice into office.

    Rice personally I believe would cave under the pressure, her participation in torture approval, complete bust in foreign policy, Lord Cheney has to run SOS recovery missions, inability to even speak precisely or coherently when compared with say Obama. Her problem, McCain’s and the entire Bush outfit is a lack of ‘authenticity’. They use PR to placate the masses and then do whatever the hell they please, legal or illegal.

    her distinguished career a shambles, i once thought her and Collin Powell would make a fantastic ticket.. But both of their reputations are sullied and tarnished by the C- president.

    Given the state of economy, long term consequences on Americans way of life haven’t been felt yet and middle class Americans only seem to pay attention when life has crashed in around them, personally, for reasons, like bankruptcies, sub-prime, divorce, off shoring and job loss, inflation, spiraling education and health care costs, ill family members, with no end in site.

    the middle class is under fantastic pressure, and ‘joe’ and ‘jane’ do really need to get their heads out of their reality tv show programs, and start grabbing their country back from the unitary/neocon crowd. Rice is one of them, hopefully someone is held accountable eventually.

    spend some time viewing elizabeth warren on the Middleclass
    http://economistsview.typepad......-coll.html

    Again America has way more important things to do than deal with these stupid politcal horse race hypotheticals.

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