Well, take it for what it is worth — but intrade switched tonight from Clinton being the likely Democratic Presidential nominee to Obama being the likely Democratic Presidential nominee.
….maybe I’m reading them wrong, but they’re looking AMAZINGLY good for Obama. According to them, he wins New Jersey (!), Conneticut, Missouri, Arizona, Massachussets (!!), Alabama, and even New Mexico. Only damp spot is California, which seems to be 49-46 in favour of Hillary.
What the hell is up with these? Is this for real?
12.
dslak
What the hell is up with these? Is this for real?
No, they’re all lying racists who actually voted for David Duke. When will a brother finally get a break?
13.
TheFountainHead
MSNBC’s exits are even better for Barack among white voters. Considering this is GEORGIA, I’m okay with Barack getting 39% of white voters in the state.
14.
TheFountainHead
Are black voters racist?
No. They’re excited. Hopeful, even?
15.
dslak
It looks like my home state is going solidly for Clinton. Damn you, Oklahoma! Why must you always be wrong?
Considering this is GEORGIA, I’m okay with Barack getting 39% of white voters in the state.
I think it’s terrific.
17.
TheFountainHead
Damn you, Oklahoma! Why must you always be wrong?
You risk everyone here at BJ actually answering that question!
18.
dslak
You risk everyone here at BJ actually answering that question!
Maybe it’s time for an intervention . . .
19.
Dennis - SGMM
Oklahoma, where the wind comes sweepin’ down the plain
And the wavin’ wheat can sure smell sweet
When the wind comes right behind the rain.
Oklahoma,
Ev’ry night my honey lamb and I
Sit alone and talk and watch a hawk
Makin’ lazy circles in the sky.
We know we belong to the land
And the land we belong to is grand!
And when we say
Yeeow! Ayipioeeay!
We’re only sayin’
You’re doin’ fine,
Oklahoma!
Oklahoma O.K.
20.
dslak
The dashboard’s predicting a Clinton win in Alabama, with Obama in third, with 3% of the vote. Is it jumping the gun to wonder if racism played a role there?
21.
4tehlulz
OH SHI-
NBC retracts projection of Clinton as winner in OK; race too early to call
22.
Fausto Carmona
Fearless prediction: Mitt Romney is in for a long night.
23.
maxbaer (not the original)
Damn you, Oklahoma! Why must you always be wrong?
I’m not a Yanks fan, but they produce good centerfielders.
24.
Jake
Are black voters racist?
No silly, they’re sexist.
/Dumbass in need of a smack.
25.
myiq2xu
Are black voters racist?
No, but you are for asking the question.
26.
Gold Star for Robot Boy
I’m not a Yanks fan, but they produce good centerfielders.
Lloyd Waner, too. But, I had to look for that one. I’m no Keith O.
29.
Asti
Message to John Cole:
Your Republican neighbors seem to be happy to be evangelical social conservatives. Huckabee is their man. How do you feel about that?
30.
maxbaer (not the original)
I’m glad to see Huck doing well. McCain is not doing quite as well as expected. The possibility of the Republican Clusterfuck Convention lives.
31.
Jess
….maybe I’m reading them wrong, but they’re looking AMAZINGLY good for Obama.
But aren’t NY and CA worth all or more than the rest put together? Don’t know, just asking…also, don’t forget about the absentee ballots! I voted in MA (for Obama), and so if those numbers hold, it’ll make me glad I made the effort. I hate it when I make a big effort to get to the polls and it’s a landslide either way (ok, I don’t hate it so much when it’s a landslide for my candidate…).
32.
PaulW
Why does this feel like another game of Risk? Roll double sixes, Obama!!!
You folks are scaring me. First, I have no idea of the primary rules out there; to an outsider, they seem odd.
Second, granted McCain loyalists made a strategic play to sack Romney, but the addition of McCain’s piddlin’ few gave the race to Huckabee?
Despite the often tepid enthusiasm for all of the majors, the Republicans could be the most interesting convention in a while. If Huckabee stays just alive-enough… Picture a roughly 45-45 split, with Huckabee with the necessary 10. We could have a throwback to the classic smoke-filled (though these days, smokeless) back room. “Okay. Let’s deal.”
Michael D. – To say that black voters are racist you would have to have a “control group” of non-racist voters who would demonstrate how non-racists would vote. Whites are not a control group
Put another way – it’s quite possible Obama is so much better a candidate than Hillary that he should be beating her 9-1, and it’s just whitey dragging him down
I personally am shocked anyone is still voting for Hillary. I’ve talked to a couple dozen people about this election, and have not yet run into *anyone* who is pro-Clinton. Literally everyone – democrat or republican – said they would vote for or at least prefer obama over Hillary
I’ve been out to four polling places today. This is a Democrat only caucus, and the turnout massive. The polls just closed but everyone in line will get to vote. The lines have been long all day. More later…
36.
Ninerdave
FYI 840 Delegates is the majority of delegates for the Dem nomination, thus a “win”.
Obama seems to be slightly underperforming and will likely lose Massachsetts, New Jersey and Missouri. Exit polls seem to be somewhat unreliable, and Zogby appears to be an idiot.
personally am shocked anyone is still voting for Hillary. I’ve talked to a couple dozen people about this election, and have not yet run into anyone who is pro-Clinton. Literally everyone – democrat or republican – said they would vote for or at least prefer obama over Hillary
It’s called an echo chamber. Or a bubble.
41.
TR
Josh Marshall at TPM:
Chris Matthews is actually making a pretty solid point. And one that’s going to be difficult one for McCain to deal with. That is, the states McCain is winning are ones Republican seldom win in general elections. So far our tally has Delaware, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey and New York. Basically he’s talking the Democratic base.
FYI 840 Delegates is the majority of delegates for the Dem nomination, thus a “win”.
You are grossly mistaken
44.
The Other Steve
Just got back from dinner after the Minnesota caucus.
We got in there and voted, and then left at 7:15pm… there was still a line of cars a mile long waiting to get in. Caucus rules are weird, it’s a 6:30-8pm thing, and I think it blew up on them because the high school it was held at was not big enough for all the people.
Results in so far show Obama up at a very comfortable margin, but I suspect those might be results from the less populated rural areas so we’ll see.
45.
TheFountainHead
What the hell happened in Massachusetts??
46.
Zifnab
It’s called an echo chamber. Or a bubble.
Or: nearly 100% of college-educated 20-somethings
That’s quite some demographical sampling you’ve got there. I wonder how this sample audience feels about legalizing hemp, cutting Pell Grants, and hooking up with Cindy Newhouse – the cute co-ed from out of state.
Huckabee 38%
McCain 30%
Romney 24%
Heh. Go away, Mitt!
The Colbert Bump strikes again!
47.
Jen
These results so far are kind of disheartening. Polls used to be very good, whereas now polls suck. Discuss.
48.
D-Chance.
CNN calls Ok for McCain. He’s picking off the states one after another.
Beck, Limbaugh, Hannity… talk radio will be an even more enraged nuthouse tomorrow.
49.
TheFountainHead
Huckabee is talking. I wish we were done with him.
The Bush administration plans Wednesday to announce the most significant overhaul in two decades to the nation’s agricultural guest-worker program in a bid to dramatically increase the number of legal foreign laborers available for the fruit-and-vegetable harvest.
The revised regulations, many months in the works, are aimed at ending the critical farmworker shortage that came as the U.S. government cracked down on illegal border crossings by making it easier for growers to bring foreign workers to the United States.
53.
Cain
So from what I can tell, Obama seems to be winning the midwest and the south. All red states it looks like. Hillary seems to be winning in states that have a strong entrenched labour unions.
Both McCain and Obama seems to be in the same both. One is winning in blue state, and the other is winning in red state. I’m not sure what all that means in the general election if it was obama vs mccain. Probably not much.
cain
54.
Tractarian
These results so far are kind of disheartening. Polls used to be very good, whereas now polls suck. Discuss.
Seems like, state after state, the results are consistently more in favor of Hillary than the exit polls that Drudge posted. I hope we’re not seeing the Bradley effect in action.
C’mon Cali.
55.
TR
Both McCain and Obama seems to be in the same both. One is winning in blue state, and the other is winning in red state. I’m not sure what all that means in the general election if it was obama vs mccain. Probably not much.
Actually, I think there’s a real difference.
McCain is despised by many of the opinion leaders for the Republican base — Limbaugh, Coulter, Dobson, on and on and on — and unless they find a way to roll that back, the base is going to be at the very least half-hearted in their support in their base states. If McCain gets the nod, he’s going to have to spend a lot of energy drumming up support in states a Republican candidate would otherwise be able to take for granted.
Obama, meanwhile, is a perfectly acceptable choice for Clinton backers, and if he gets the nod, he’ll have no problem keeping his base in line. He can focus all his energy on the swing states, while McCain would have to play on a much broader field. Big advantage.
56.
The Other Steve
So from what I can tell, Obama seems to be winning the midwest and the south. All red states it looks like. Hillary seems to be winning in states that have a strong entrenched labour unions.
It’s interesting. We’ll see how Obama does in the west. I don’t know if it’s labor unions, or just older party members.
Obama thus far is having a very good night. We’ll have to wait for the western states.
57.
The Other Steve
Romney is headed for a big upset here in Minnesota. At least at this point he’s in the lead. That’s kind of a big loss for McCain as Pawlenty has been stumping for him for some time.
It looks to me based on what I’ve been seeing is that the independents are breaking for the Democrat here. That’s good for Romney, not so good for McCain.
I actually think, especially if Obama is the nominee that McCain will do very poorly in the general because of this phenomena.
58.
TheFountainHead
Seems like, state after state, the results are consistently more in favor of Hillary than the exit polls that Drudge posted. I hope we’re not seeing the Bradley effect in action.
I hate to say it, but if you compare Obama’s numbers in Caucus states to those in primary states, well, I don’t know what else to say….
59.
Tractarian
Obama’s delegate expert says the MUP leads in pledged delegates so far, 606 to 534….
[McCain will] be the nominee. What do you want to bet he’s everyone’s second choice?
Run down the reasons why so-and-so can’t get the nomination. The moneycons hate Huckabee’s guts. Romney’s a big fake and nobody believes he’s a real conservative. Giuliani’s self-destructing from his corruption issues and they’d never have nominated a thrice-married cross-dressing serial philanderer anyway, even though he tosses them all that tasty red meat they love so much.
And McCain can’t win because…of campaign finance reform? What’s the deal-breaker here, seriously? How does he NOT win it?
December 29th, 2007 at 12:35 am
61.
LiberalTarian
I talked to a woman who is voting for Clinton explicitly for the older woman in a man’s world vote. All the power to her. She said she’d be okay with Obama, but would like to see a woman her age with a lot stacked against her prevail.
I hate tension. Waiting to see who won drives me to drink.
I hate to say it, but if you compare Obama’s numbers in Caucus states to those in primary states, well, I don’t know what else to say….
I think, as we can see from this blog, the Omaha supporters are much more enthusiastic (hyper?) than the Clinton supporters. This would have an effect in a caucus where the enthusiasm would have an impact on the waverers.
63.
Cain
Obama’s delegate expert says the MUP leads in pledged delegates so far, 606 to 534….
It’s california that we gotta start watching. Polls close in 3 minutes.
cain
64.
4jkb4ia
NYT gives Alabama to Huckabee! Always knew he could take it.
65.
TheFountainHead
I think, as we can see from this blog, the Omaha supporters are much more enthusiastic (hyper?) than the Clinton supporters. This would have an effect in a caucus where the enthusiasm would have an impact on the waverers.
Maybe so, but those numbers are off by huge margins against most of their polling and even the exit polls.
66.
D-Chance.
Quote of the night (from Kathryn Jean Lopez): Can we retire the term “omittuary”?
lol…
67.
4jkb4ia
NYT gives Minnesota to Obama.
68.
TheFountainHead
Hillary’s speaking skills just pale in comparison. She leaned on that podium like she was giving a lecture at a small town college.
69.
The Other Steve
I think, as we can see from this blog, the Omaha supporters are much more enthusiastic (hyper?) than the Clinton supporters. This would have an effect in a caucus where the enthusiasm would have an impact on the waverers.
We have myiqis40 on suicide watch.
Actually I’m not sure how Kansas runs, but the Minnesota caucus is totally not like Iowa. You vote on a piece of paper and stick it in a big box. It’s like voting for class president in grade school.
So you really don’t get much of a sense of who is supporting who.
I think Obama just appeals more in Peoria.
70.
4jkb4ia
I just noticed that they gave NJ to Hillary. Nice try, Obama camp.
I just noticed that they gave NJ to Hillary. Nice try, Obama camp
They gave it a good shot. Given what his final numbers tonight will be versus what they were a month ago, it wasn’t in vain. Compare it to 3 months ago and it’s a miracle. I’m surprised. I think when the numbers are crunched we’ll see that the old people came out in droves despite the rain and the people under forty didn’t.
73.
4jkb4ia
I think it is also significant that Hillary can win places like Oklahoma and rural Missouri going away. Perhaps there are not enough Ds there to make a difference in the general, however.
This would have an effect in a caucus where the enthusiasm would have an impact on the waverers.
It really depends on how the caucus is conducted. Here in NM the caucus is just an election. Not much different than any other other election accept that these fucking moron Democrats in the party leadership completely underestimated the the turnout. I just went back over to my polling place and the last 75-100 people were voting. They should be done in about the next ten minutes. BTW the polls closed at 7 but anyone in line would be allowed to vote.
According to a couple of the poll workers they probably had 200-300 people leave because they couldn’t/wouldn’t wait for 2-3 hours to vote.
If the Chairman of the State Democratic Party isn’t executed at dawn for this fucking mess I’m going to Santa Fe and ripping that beard off of Bill Richardsn’s fat smirking face. OK maybe that’s a little over the top, but it never fails that the NM Democrats fuck up an election. They have held the Secretary of State job and the County Clerk job in the largest, and most Democratic county, in the state for as long as I can remember. Hence, every time we have an election its the moron Democrats that fuck it up. FUCK! IDIOTS!
I’m gonna start hitting the tequila. If I post anything more idiotic and ranting than this just ignore me.
75.
4jkb4ia
That “Nice try, Obama camp” was not snark. I agree with everything TheFountainHead said.
76.
Cain
and so california starts:
at 1% reporting clinton looks like she’s ahead by 24 points.
gads.. that’s depressing.
cain
77.
D-Chance.
Mittmentum is taking hold. Montana and Minnesota~!
On the Dem side, every site and cable channel has different numbers; but Obama wanted to come out of tonight within 100 delegates of Clinton, and the spreads I’m seeing is between 50-120, pending California.
78.
4jkb4ia
CT to Obama! Yes, We Can!
79.
TheFountainHead
I’ve had enough to drink tonight to ask this:
Who the fuck are these people voting for Hillary??!!
80.
4jkb4ia
HOLY CRAP! 66% in from St. Louis County, Obama 60%, Clinton 38%! Those are city levels!
81.
Jake
I just realized why I don’t really care who gets the Dem. nomination.
I don’t have time.
I’m too busy watching the fRightened Kneepadist freak the fuck out over McCain/Huckabee. Someone check on Hugh Spewitt. If he’s clutching his cardboard Mittens cutout and sobbing like a baby I want pictures.
Super Effing Tuesday is upon us, in all its fearsome glory. Were I in a state that was voting, I’d have rented out a dive bar for conservatives to join in a raucous celebration of this momentous triumph of suck.
Delicious tears, so yummy!
82.
4jkb4ia
Who the fuck are these people voting for Hillary?
a) Racists
b) Older women
c) Her constituents
d) People who believe that resume should mean something
83.
4jkb4ia
e) People who believe Paul Krugman about mandates
84.
LS
Why isn’t CNN projecting that Mittens is going to win Montana? It’s not even a projection. 100% of the precincts have reported; Mittens has 38% of the vote, and Ron Paul pulls up second with 25% of the vote.
Methinks CNN doesn’t think that Montana really matters.
85.
TheFountainHead
e) People who believe Paul Krugman about mandates
Mmmm…I can forgive most of the rest for their lack of vision….but these…these are the fucktards I loathe the most.
86.
4jkb4ia
Montana, North Dakota for Romney
87.
nrglaw
California 55% Hillary 33% Obama, with 6% reporting.
88.
4jkb4ia
Especially since Brad DeLong pointed out that Obama’s plan can be made to effectively have an employer mandate!
89.
Ninerdave
If conventional wisdom in California is correct, that late breakers are going towards Obama, there are two hiccups that might effect the Obama campaign.
1) Santa Clara (San Francisco Bay Area, affluent young crowd, Obama’s constituency) ran out of ballots, they are getting more, but people are having to wait.
2) In LA, independents are having to check a “Democrat” bubble on the ballot before their ballot was counted.
90.
Cain
Go Magical Unity Pony!!! Pony! Pony! Pony! Pony!
cain
91.
TheFountainHead
Not to mention the fact that Hillary’s plan will get scuttled and destroyed by the Republican party out of sheer spite….oh…and because she doesn’t know how to negotiate….only piss and spit.
92.
Cain
So what is that asshat, Rove saying while covering super tuesday? Is turdblossom enjoying the fucking mess he created out of the republican party?
cain
93.
Caidence (fmr. Chris)
Magical Unity Pony is about to speak OMGOMGOMGOMG!!!
/calls girlfriends on phone
//starts talking about what a pretty pony he is
///and about American Idol!
myiq is going to kill me. If he can find me.
94.
Cain
Reminds me of the My Pretty Pony jingle from the 80s.
cain
95.
D-Chance.
TheFountainHead Says:
Not to mention the fact that Hillary’s plan will get scuttled and destroyed by the Republican party out of sheer spite….oh…and because she doesn’t know how to negotiate….only piss and spit.
And cry. Especially on the eve of big primaries.
96.
4jkb4ia
Oklahoma: McCain. McCain has just passed Huckabee in Missouri. I was cheering for Huckabee. Expect to see Idaho for Obama very soon.
Not to mention the fact that Hillary’s plan will get scuttled and destroyed by the Republican party out of sheer spite….oh…and because she doesn’t know how to negotiate….only piss and spit.
With about 4% of vote counted Obama has a slight lead here in NM.
99.
4jkb4ia
Georgia: Huckabee!
100.
Andrew
MUP’s speech is way better than all of the other speeches.
101.
TheFountainHead
Good lord Missouri is close!
102.
TheFountainHead
MUP’s speech is way better than all of the other speeches.
Duh.
Not only better, but more prescient as well.
103.
4jkb4ia
And Obama takes Idaho. McCain takes Arizona.
104.
The Other Steve
and so california starts:
at 1% reporting clinton looks like she’s ahead by 24 points.
Well, Obama was expected to lose. It was only polling in the last several days which showed him pulling even. But California has a lot of absentee ballots cast weeks ago.
105.
reid
The Grand Panjandrum: It was pretty rough up in Los Alamos, too. For such a small, reddish town, we had to wait about 40 minutes. Interestingly, if your last name began with A-D or S-Z, you only had to wait about five. No such luck for me, of course. Pretty ridiculous considering the actual voting process took about five seconds once you got there.
106.
Bey
“We are the people we’ve been waiting for.”
Damn skippy.
Bring on the hope.
107.
The Other Steve
W00T! Obama just pulled ahead of Clinton in Missouri.
It’s probably going to be a 50/50 delegate split, but this is awesome.
108.
The Other Steve
CNN was saying exit polls out of California showed Obama leading in the white and black vote. Hillary was leading in hispanic and asian votes. So this is likely going to break by region.
109.
4jkb4ia
97% in in Missouri: Obama takes the lead! By 3000 votes!
St. Louis City has completely come in. Obama smokes Hillary, 71% to 27%. St. Louis County has not come in completely. Something is also holding up Boone County. That is the University of Missouri, and Obama has a big lead.
All of Kansas City hasn’t come in either. Currently 56% Obama in Jackson County.
This is looking good for Obama at least to get all the delegates from St. Louis area CDs. If he actually wins I will be overjoyed to have been wrong.
110.
4jkb4ia
Tennessee for Huckabee. Simcha all around.
Colorado: Obama.
111.
4jkb4ia
Arizona: Clinton
112.
Jen
The Huckster killed me. On the one hand, it scares me that Republicans used to content themselves with saying they weren’t going to raise your taxes, and now they’re not happy with anything less than abolishing the IRS.
On the other hand, he had a great line about Romney: Yesterday he told me not to whine. Yesterday he was against whining, now he’s for it.
Husband says HRC picking Huck as VP is the only way she’d win. :)
113.
Caidence (fmr. Chris)
CNN was saying exit polls out of California showed Obama leading in the white and black vote. Hillary was leading in hispanic and asian votes. So this is likely going to break by region.
I still can’t figure out how they can call it after 15% counted. That has to assume some pretty solid trending.
I’m afraid this is going to be more of the same… Clinton wins prominently, but Obama takes more delegates. And nobody can figure out what the hell is going on.
…that also means more of myiq complaining that we’re mean to him. Damn.
114.
Jen
NBC called Calif. for HRC.
115.
Andrew
The best thing about MO is the basic numbers: Something like 800,000 voters for the Dems, just 600,000 for the Republicans.
116.
D-Chance.
CNN calls California for Clinton and McCain.
117.
4jkb4ia
Utah: Obama. Hubby applying pressure to go to bed.
I still can’t figure out how they can call it after 15% counted.
Basically they compare precinct results with exit poll results in sampled areas. Based on their algorithms, once they know the actual vote counts in carefully sampled precincts, and compare them with the earlier-obtained exit poll results, they can produce a model that has a certain confidence level associated with it. If that level is over their magic line, they call. After 2000, that line is higher than it used to be.
Depending on the circumstances they can call with miniscule counts. Or, they may not call until they have a very large percentage of votes counted. Every race and every situation is different.
122.
Andrew
I thought they rolled a d100 for each player character???
123.
LiberalTarian
Who the fuck are these people voting for Hillary??!!
STFU. Lots of us remember what the 90s were like: LOTS OF FUCKING PROSPERITY. All that bullshit about “can’t stand listening to the media cry about the Clintons for another 8 years …” WTF cares. Nobody listened to them then, they were too busy having a job and prospects and opportunity.
I’m cool with Obama and Obamites, but damn. STFU. Supporting Clinton does not equal blasphemy.
Note that New York went to Clinton, and Arkansas. These are folks who have actually had the woman in their corner. If anyone was going to blink, it’d been them.
124.
myiq2xu
Who the fuck are these people voting for Hillary?
Looks like most of them to me
125.
The Other Steve
I’m afraid this is going to be more of the same… Clinton wins prominently, but Obama takes more delegates. And nobody can figure out what the hell is going on.
That’s going to be interesting out of California, seeing final results. In other states, Clinton did well in major urban centers, not so much everywhere else. So I suppose it’s possible that this comes out like Nevada.
Or at the very least, I think delegate results are much closer than popular vote in the state.
126.
myiq2xu
…that also means more of myiq complaining that we’re mean to him. Damn.
WATB
127.
The Other Steve
I’m cool with Obama and Obamites, but damn. STFU. Supporting Clinton does not equal blasphemy.
Agreed. I think it’s more important to look at the trending. How is Obama doing in states that Democrats haven’t normally won?
Hey, I see Mr. Denial Pie is back. We can remove the suicide watch.
128.
TheFountainHead
STFU. Lots of us remember what the 90s were like: LOTS OF FUCKING PROSPERITY. All that bullshit about “can’t stand listening to the media cry about the Clintons for another 8 years …” WTF cares. Nobody listened to them then, they were too busy having a job and prospects and opportunity.
I’m cool with Obama and Obamites, but damn. STFU. Supporting Clinton does not equal blasphemy.
Note that New York went to Clinton, and Arkansas. These are folks who have actually had the woman in their corner. If anyone was going to blink, it’d been them.
No of course it doesn’t, but it also seems to mean you equate a Hillary presidency with a Bill Clinton presidency of a decade prior.
129.
TheFountainHead
…and I still haven’t gotten a good answer as to why Obama does phenomenally in caucus states and falls behind polling in primary states….other than the obvious, glaring, unpretty one…
Personally, I will be happy with a convention that isn’t a foregone conclusion.
I don’t know if that’s a realistic possibility, the convention rules are something of a mystery to me at this point.
I think that the Dems win the WH in November no matter which candidate is the nominee. I think that John McCain is the War Candidate, and I think if we are smart we make him the War Candidate and let him go around rasping about Withdrawal Dates and White Flags until he is blue in the fucking face, and he loses. I don’t see this country electing a War President again. It’s a mistake we made in 2004 and it won’t be repeated.
That said, who do I want in the White House next year?
Barack Obama. The more I see him, the more I like him, and if the race is still open two months from now, I think he can pull it off. I sincerely hope that he can.
CA is a big disappointment, but I have to remember, this is the state that elected Arnold and Ronald Reagan governor.
131.
The Other Steve
Just gave $100 to Obama campaign.
Unlike Hillary supporters, I can still give $2100 more over the next month. Well, if I suddenly win the lottery anyway.
132.
myiq2xu
No of course it doesn’t, but it also seems to mean you equate a Hillary presidency with a Bill Clinton presidency of a decade prior.
Strange how with anything regarding Bill, Hillary gets none of the credit but half of the blame.
133.
TheFountainHead
Strange how with anything regarding Bill, Hillary gets none of the credit but half of the blame.
Well, that tends to happen when you try to stake a claim to that which isn’t yours.
134.
LiberalTarian
Dude. Is it possible that 10% of California voters don’t know that Edwards dropped out??
Protest vote? Message vote??
135.
Anne Laurie
What the hell happened in Massachusetts??
My personal guess? A lot of hardcore Repubs snuck across the aisle and voted Hillary, because they figure she’ll be easier to beat in November than Mr. Magical Unity Pony. I’m a cynic, and this is Massachusetts.
136.
TheFountainHead
My father (of all people) just sent me a text message that makes me feel a but better about the disappointment that California is looking to be:
“How many weeks do you have to go back for the idea of him to be within a 100 delegates of her on Super Tuesday to be completely audacious? The answer: 4”
137.
Cain
TPM had some stuff about racism by Italian americans and some heavy lifting by Irish americans. I dunno.
I’m right there with you on the Giant Tote Board In The Sky, but I plan to scrape the coffers in the next few weeks and come up with more.
139.
myiq2xu
CA is a big disappointment win for Democrats, but I have to remember, this is the state that elected Arnold and Ronald Reagan governor, but also elected Hiram Johnson, Earl Warren, Pat and Jerry Brown, while giving Nixon the middle finger.
California was progressive and then it was conservative, it was a red state during the 80’s before turning blue in the 90’s.
It has 10% of the electoral votes (20% of the votes necessary to win) and will go 100% for the Democratic nominee in November.
I’m a native, and I have lived in LA, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Orange and San Diego counties.
I don’t need any lectures from you about California. I also count fairly well.
It’s a fucked up state, politically. It’s too big, and ought to be two states. But that’s just my opinion.
California is home to Prop 13, the first of a series of self-governing blunders that sold the state out to anti-tax interests and left the state reeling only a few years ago from a power and revenue crisis of Titanic proportions.
And then there the state’s biggest embarassment: You.
142.
LiberalTarian
So, with 20% of the vote in we see ~1 million Republican voters and ~1.2 million Democratic voters. This will be a lot more interesting when all the precincts report, and it would be cool to see the distribution of voters (i.e. how much redder SoCal is than NorCal).
I am on a pretty liberal campus, and of course, youngish people, but I haven’t seen a lot of Obama support. The only conversation I heard was about Obama talking about Bill dancing to gage whether he was a black guy or not, and the young men were not real impressed (neither were white).
But, we like Bill here. 10K to see him speak remember. So yeah, I think Bill affection is translating into Hillary votes here.
143.
myiq2xu
And then there the state’s biggest embarassment: You.
Civil and polite as always. And you’re a unity fan.
I’ll decide whether I am wasting my time, kid. Otherwise it ain’t my time.
I’m responding to your inane posts. If you want to call that picking a fight, that’s up to you.
So like I said, if I were a unity fan, why would I be polite to you? Or did I somehow miss the “point” of your previous post? You just spent most of the last month here defecating on a fine candidate for president and you want to bust me about unity? Fuck you.
You know they say liberals can’t ever get anything done because trying to get liberals to agree is like herding cats.
I know guys like to bust each other’s balls, but come on.
Hate on the GOP. They deserve it.
Hating on each other’s Dem candidates is bad for the party. You gonna stay home if your favorite isn’t picked? Then, as the trite saying goes, you aren’t part of the solution … you’re part of the problem.
151.
LiberalTarian
UT vote stuff:
Obama: ~70.1K votes 57% of the vote
Clinton: ~58.6K 39%
Romney: ~252.9K 90%
McCain: ~15.2K 5%
I’m sure UT is not representative of the western states (obviously Cali is different), but these are the kinds of numbers we should look at. Dems don’t look to take UT in November.
152.
Cain
The gap between Clinton and Obama seem to be shrinking.
Clinton: 53% Obama: 37%
I expect Clinton to win but shrinking the lead is a good thing.
cain
153.
Cain
Ooops, that was in California…
cain
154.
ninerdave
STFU. Lots of us remember what the 90s were like: LOTS OF FUCKING PROSPERITY. All that bullshit about “can’t stand listening to the media cry about the Clintons for another 8 years …” WTF cares. Nobody listened to them then, they were too busy having a job and prospects and opportunity
Yeah, it ain’t 1992, either. In case you hadn’t noticed, Bush I left the country in a lot better shape than Bush II. Never mind the fact that Clinton rode the tech bubble. I don’t see another tech bubble on the horizon.
Frankly, anyone that wants to be President after this mess is insane in my book.
However: GO!!! O-BAM-MA!! Yes we can! I’ve upped my monthly contribution to $50 a month.
155.
LiberalTarian
There was some good damn policy in the Clinton years. So, I am fine with a Clinton in the Whitehouse.
I have misgivings about Obama. But, come November, if he is the nominee, I’ll vote for him. Not only that, I’ll campaign for the bastard.
156.
Anne Laurie
And then there the state’s biggest embarassment: You.
Not while us non-Califroggians have to put up with “Governor Ahnuld”, ThymeZone.
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Zifnab
:-p You’ll forgive my skepticism given the record on these things. This time eight years ago, they were giving Florida to Al Gore. Just say’n.
dslak
NBC calls Georgia for Obama, as well.
Ninerdave
MSNBC’s “dashboard” is pretty slick. Real time results and Live TV feed in one web page.
dslak
The Dashboard just called Georgia for McCain.
Michael D.
Among black voters (according to CNN exits):
Obama: 88%
Clinton: 11%
Among white voters:
Obama: 39%
Clinton: 59%
Are black voters racist?
Ninerdave
TPM’s first set of exits:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/177150.php
ACK
Well, take it for what it is worth — but intrade switched tonight from Clinton being the likely Democratic Presidential nominee to Obama being the likely Democratic Presidential nominee.
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
dslak
And now, let’s talk some more about John McCain and the manliness he exudes!
4tehlulz
Yes, especially when they vote for white candidates.
Michael D.
Ohhhhh, Romney’s running third. What will he blame this on? Time to get this joker (the greater of three) out of the race.
Desmond
There’s a second wave of exits too.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/177150.php
….maybe I’m reading them wrong, but they’re looking AMAZINGLY good for Obama. According to them, he wins New Jersey (!), Conneticut, Missouri, Arizona, Massachussets (!!), Alabama, and even New Mexico. Only damp spot is California, which seems to be 49-46 in favour of Hillary.
What the hell is up with these? Is this for real?
dslak
No, they’re all lying racists who actually voted for David Duke. When will a brother finally get a break?
TheFountainHead
MSNBC’s exits are even better for Barack among white voters. Considering this is GEORGIA, I’m okay with Barack getting 39% of white voters in the state.
TheFountainHead
No. They’re excited. Hopeful, even?
dslak
It looks like my home state is going solidly for Clinton. Damn you, Oklahoma! Why must you always be wrong?
Michael D.
I think it’s terrific.
TheFountainHead
You risk everyone here at BJ actually answering that question!
dslak
Maybe it’s time for an intervention . . .
Dennis - SGMM
Oklahoma, where the wind comes sweepin’ down the plain
And the wavin’ wheat can sure smell sweet
When the wind comes right behind the rain.
Oklahoma,
Ev’ry night my honey lamb and I
Sit alone and talk and watch a hawk
Makin’ lazy circles in the sky.
We know we belong to the land
And the land we belong to is grand!
And when we say
Yeeow! Ayipioeeay!
We’re only sayin’
You’re doin’ fine,
Oklahoma!
Oklahoma O.K.
dslak
The dashboard’s predicting a Clinton win in Alabama, with Obama in third, with 3% of the vote. Is it jumping the gun to wonder if racism played a role there?
4tehlulz
OH SHI-
Fausto Carmona
Fearless prediction: Mitt Romney is in for a long night.
maxbaer (not the original)
I’m not a Yanks fan, but they produce good centerfielders.
Jake
No silly, they’re sexist.
/Dumbass in need of a smack.
myiq2xu
No, but you are for asking the question.
Gold Star for Robot Boy
Mantle, Paul Blair… Who else?
maxbaer (not the original)
Bobby Murcer
maxbaer (not the original)
Lloyd Waner, too. But, I had to look for that one. I’m no Keith O.
Asti
Message to John Cole:
Your Republican neighbors seem to be happy to be evangelical social conservatives. Huckabee is their man. How do you feel about that?
maxbaer (not the original)
I’m glad to see Huck doing well. McCain is not doing quite as well as expected. The possibility of the Republican Clusterfuck Convention lives.
Jess
But aren’t NY and CA worth all or more than the rest put together? Don’t know, just asking…also, don’t forget about the absentee ballots! I voted in MA (for Obama), and so if those numbers hold, it’ll make me glad I made the effort. I hate it when I make a big effort to get to the polls and it’s a landslide either way (ok, I don’t hate it so much when it’s a landslide for my candidate…).
PaulW
Why does this feel like another game of Risk? Roll double sixes, Obama!!!
Glen
John,
You folks are scaring me. First, I have no idea of the primary rules out there; to an outsider, they seem odd.
Second, granted McCain loyalists made a strategic play to sack Romney, but the addition of McCain’s piddlin’ few gave the race to Huckabee?
Despite the often tepid enthusiasm for all of the majors, the Republicans could be the most interesting convention in a while. If Huckabee stays just alive-enough… Picture a roughly 45-45 split, with Huckabee with the necessary 10. We could have a throwback to the classic smoke-filled (though these days, smokeless) back room. “Okay. Let’s deal.”
Haven’t seen one of those in decades.
crayz
Michael D. – To say that black voters are racist you would have to have a “control group” of non-racist voters who would demonstrate how non-racists would vote. Whites are not a control group
Put another way – it’s quite possible Obama is so much better a candidate than Hillary that he should be beating her 9-1, and it’s just whitey dragging him down
I personally am shocked anyone is still voting for Hillary. I’ve talked to a couple dozen people about this election, and have not yet run into *anyone* who is pro-Clinton. Literally everyone – democrat or republican – said they would vote for or at least prefer obama over Hillary
The Grand Panjandrum
I’ve been out to four polling places today. This is a Democrat only caucus, and the turnout massive. The polls just closed but everyone in line will get to vote. The lines have been long all day. More later…
Ninerdave
FYI 840 Delegates is the majority of delegates for the Dem nomination, thus a “win”.
Psycheout
Huck won WV and AR and is leading in GA. The only state Mittens has won so far is LIBERAL Massachusetts. Ha ha, Mittens!
Psycheout
Missouri, with 7% reporting
Huckabee 38%
McCain 30%
Romney 24%
Heh. Go away, Mitt!
Jim
Obama seems to be slightly underperforming and will likely lose Massachsetts, New Jersey and Missouri. Exit polls seem to be somewhat unreliable, and Zogby appears to be an idiot.
empty
It’s called an echo chamber. Or a bubble.
TR
Josh Marshall at TPM:
That about sums it up. Thanks GOP!
crayz
Or: nearly 100% of college-educated 20-somethings
crayz
You are grossly mistaken
The Other Steve
Just got back from dinner after the Minnesota caucus.
We got in there and voted, and then left at 7:15pm… there was still a line of cars a mile long waiting to get in. Caucus rules are weird, it’s a 6:30-8pm thing, and I think it blew up on them because the high school it was held at was not big enough for all the people.
Results in so far show Obama up at a very comfortable margin, but I suspect those might be results from the less populated rural areas so we’ll see.
TheFountainHead
What the hell happened in Massachusetts??
Zifnab
That’s quite some demographical sampling you’ve got there. I wonder how this sample audience feels about legalizing hemp, cutting Pell Grants, and hooking up with Cindy Newhouse – the cute co-ed from out of state.
The Colbert Bump strikes again!
Jen
These results so far are kind of disheartening. Polls used to be very good, whereas now polls suck. Discuss.
D-Chance.
CNN calls Ok for McCain. He’s picking off the states one after another.
Beck, Limbaugh, Hannity… talk radio will be an even more enraged nuthouse tomorrow.
TheFountainHead
Huckabee is talking. I wish we were done with him.
Davebo
Gentle Ben is whining in Bizzarro World…
Ned R.
Oh I loved that whine.
Favorite Corner post tonight — tossup between Andy McCarthy realizing that switching from Giuliani to Romney was a lateral move or the quiet Lopez whimper of ‘well…well…at least we won Utah!’
Ned R.
And they’ll have something else to complain about!
Cain
So from what I can tell, Obama seems to be winning the midwest and the south. All red states it looks like. Hillary seems to be winning in states that have a strong entrenched labour unions.
Both McCain and Obama seems to be in the same both. One is winning in blue state, and the other is winning in red state. I’m not sure what all that means in the general election if it was obama vs mccain. Probably not much.
cain
Tractarian
Seems like, state after state, the results are consistently more in favor of Hillary than the exit polls that Drudge posted. I hope we’re not seeing the Bradley effect in action.
C’mon Cali.
TR
Actually, I think there’s a real difference.
McCain is despised by many of the opinion leaders for the Republican base — Limbaugh, Coulter, Dobson, on and on and on — and unless they find a way to roll that back, the base is going to be at the very least half-hearted in their support in their base states. If McCain gets the nod, he’s going to have to spend a lot of energy drumming up support in states a Republican candidate would otherwise be able to take for granted.
Obama, meanwhile, is a perfectly acceptable choice for Clinton backers, and if he gets the nod, he’ll have no problem keeping his base in line. He can focus all his energy on the swing states, while McCain would have to play on a much broader field. Big advantage.
The Other Steve
It’s interesting. We’ll see how Obama does in the west. I don’t know if it’s labor unions, or just older party members.
Obama thus far is having a very good night. We’ll have to wait for the western states.
The Other Steve
Romney is headed for a big upset here in Minnesota. At least at this point he’s in the lead. That’s kind of a big loss for McCain as Pawlenty has been stumping for him for some time.
It looks to me based on what I’ve been seeing is that the independents are breaking for the Democrat here. That’s good for Romney, not so good for McCain.
I actually think, especially if Obama is the nominee that McCain will do very poorly in the general because of this phenomena.
TheFountainHead
I hate to say it, but if you compare Obama’s numbers in Caucus states to those in primary states, well, I don’t know what else to say….
Tractarian
Obama’s delegate expert says the MUP leads in pledged delegates so far, 606 to 534….
Laertes
I called it.
LiberalTarian
I talked to a woman who is voting for Clinton explicitly for the older woman in a man’s world vote. All the power to her. She said she’d be okay with Obama, but would like to see a woman her age with a lot stacked against her prevail.
I hate tension. Waiting to see who won drives me to drink.
Actually, everything drives me to drink. Salud!
empty
I think, as we can see from this blog, the Omaha supporters are much more enthusiastic (hyper?) than the Clinton supporters. This would have an effect in a caucus where the enthusiasm would have an impact on the waverers.
Cain
It’s california that we gotta start watching. Polls close in 3 minutes.
cain
4jkb4ia
NYT gives Alabama to Huckabee! Always knew he could take it.
TheFountainHead
Maybe so, but those numbers are off by huge margins against most of their polling and even the exit polls.
D-Chance.
Quote of the night (from Kathryn Jean Lopez): Can we retire the term “omittuary”?
lol…
4jkb4ia
NYT gives Minnesota to Obama.
TheFountainHead
Hillary’s speaking skills just pale in comparison. She leaned on that podium like she was giving a lecture at a small town college.
The Other Steve
We have myiqis40 on suicide watch.
Actually I’m not sure how Kansas runs, but the Minnesota caucus is totally not like Iowa. You vote on a piece of paper and stick it in a big box. It’s like voting for class president in grade school.
So you really don’t get much of a sense of who is supporting who.
I think Obama just appeals more in Peoria.
4jkb4ia
I just noticed that they gave NJ to Hillary. Nice try, Obama camp.
Psycheout
Huck got WV, AL, AR, TN, and leads in GA and MO.
Mitt won MA, UT and ND. Wow. Buh bye Oven Mitt.
TheFountainHead
They gave it a good shot. Given what his final numbers tonight will be versus what they were a month ago, it wasn’t in vain. Compare it to 3 months ago and it’s a miracle. I’m surprised. I think when the numbers are crunched we’ll see that the old people came out in droves despite the rain and the people under forty didn’t.
4jkb4ia
I think it is also significant that Hillary can win places like Oklahoma and rural Missouri going away. Perhaps there are not enough Ds there to make a difference in the general, however.
The Grand Panjandrum
It really depends on how the caucus is conducted. Here in NM the caucus is just an election. Not much different than any other other election accept that these fucking moron Democrats in the party leadership completely underestimated the the turnout. I just went back over to my polling place and the last 75-100 people were voting. They should be done in about the next ten minutes. BTW the polls closed at 7 but anyone in line would be allowed to vote.
According to a couple of the poll workers they probably had 200-300 people leave because they couldn’t/wouldn’t wait for 2-3 hours to vote.
If the Chairman of the State Democratic Party isn’t executed at dawn for this fucking mess I’m going to Santa Fe and ripping that beard off of Bill Richardsn’s fat smirking face. OK maybe that’s a little over the top, but it never fails that the NM Democrats fuck up an election. They have held the Secretary of State job and the County Clerk job in the largest, and most Democratic county, in the state for as long as I can remember. Hence, every time we have an election its the moron Democrats that fuck it up. FUCK! IDIOTS!
I’m gonna start hitting the tequila. If I post anything more idiotic and ranting than this just ignore me.
4jkb4ia
That “Nice try, Obama camp” was not snark. I agree with everything TheFountainHead said.
Cain
and so california starts:
at 1% reporting clinton looks like she’s ahead by 24 points.
gads.. that’s depressing.
cain
D-Chance.
Mittmentum is taking hold. Montana and Minnesota~!
On the Dem side, every site and cable channel has different numbers; but Obama wanted to come out of tonight within 100 delegates of Clinton, and the spreads I’m seeing is between 50-120, pending California.
4jkb4ia
CT to Obama! Yes, We Can!
TheFountainHead
I’ve had enough to drink tonight to ask this:
Who the fuck are these people voting for Hillary??!!
4jkb4ia
HOLY CRAP! 66% in from St. Louis County, Obama 60%, Clinton 38%! Those are city levels!
Jake
I just realized why I don’t really care who gets the Dem. nomination.
I don’t have time.
I’m too busy watching the fRightened Kneepadist freak the fuck out over McCain/Huckabee. Someone check on Hugh Spewitt. If he’s clutching his cardboard Mittens cutout and sobbing like a baby I want pictures.
From Ben Dominatrix of RedState:
Delicious tears, so yummy!
4jkb4ia
a) Racists
b) Older women
c) Her constituents
d) People who believe that resume should mean something
4jkb4ia
e) People who believe Paul Krugman about mandates
LS
Why isn’t CNN projecting that Mittens is going to win Montana? It’s not even a projection. 100% of the precincts have reported; Mittens has 38% of the vote, and Ron Paul pulls up second with 25% of the vote.
Methinks CNN doesn’t think that Montana really matters.
TheFountainHead
Mmmm…I can forgive most of the rest for their lack of vision….but these…these are the fucktards I loathe the most.
4jkb4ia
Montana, North Dakota for Romney
nrglaw
California 55% Hillary 33% Obama, with 6% reporting.
4jkb4ia
Especially since Brad DeLong pointed out that Obama’s plan can be made to effectively have an employer mandate!
Ninerdave
If conventional wisdom in California is correct, that late breakers are going towards Obama, there are two hiccups that might effect the Obama campaign.
1) Santa Clara (San Francisco Bay Area, affluent young crowd, Obama’s constituency) ran out of ballots, they are getting more, but people are having to wait.
2) In LA, independents are having to check a “Democrat” bubble on the ballot before their ballot was counted.
Cain
Go Magical Unity Pony!!! Pony! Pony! Pony! Pony!
cain
TheFountainHead
Not to mention the fact that Hillary’s plan will get scuttled and destroyed by the Republican party out of sheer spite….oh…and because she doesn’t know how to negotiate….only piss and spit.
Cain
So what is that asshat, Rove saying while covering super tuesday? Is turdblossom enjoying the fucking mess he created out of the republican party?
cain
Caidence (fmr. Chris)
Magical Unity Pony is about to speak OMGOMGOMGOMG!!!
/calls girlfriends on phone
//starts talking about what a pretty pony he is
///and about American Idol!
myiq is going to kill me. If he can find me.
Cain
Reminds me of the My Pretty Pony jingle from the 80s.
cain
D-Chance.
And cry. Especially on the eve of big primaries.
4jkb4ia
Oklahoma: McCain. McCain has just passed Huckabee in Missouri. I was cheering for Huckabee. Expect to see Idaho for Obama very soon.
empty
Oooh, bitchy!
The Grand Panjandrum
With about 4% of vote counted Obama has a slight lead here in NM.
4jkb4ia
Georgia: Huckabee!
Andrew
MUP’s speech is way better than all of the other speeches.
TheFountainHead
Good lord Missouri is close!
TheFountainHead
Duh.
Not only better, but more prescient as well.
4jkb4ia
And Obama takes Idaho. McCain takes Arizona.
The Other Steve
Well, Obama was expected to lose. It was only polling in the last several days which showed him pulling even. But California has a lot of absentee ballots cast weeks ago.
reid
The Grand Panjandrum: It was pretty rough up in Los Alamos, too. For such a small, reddish town, we had to wait about 40 minutes. Interestingly, if your last name began with A-D or S-Z, you only had to wait about five. No such luck for me, of course. Pretty ridiculous considering the actual voting process took about five seconds once you got there.
Bey
“We are the people we’ve been waiting for.”
Damn skippy.
Bring on the hope.
The Other Steve
W00T! Obama just pulled ahead of Clinton in Missouri.
It’s probably going to be a 50/50 delegate split, but this is awesome.
The Other Steve
CNN was saying exit polls out of California showed Obama leading in the white and black vote. Hillary was leading in hispanic and asian votes. So this is likely going to break by region.
4jkb4ia
97% in in Missouri: Obama takes the lead! By 3000 votes!
St. Louis City has completely come in. Obama smokes Hillary, 71% to 27%. St. Louis County has not come in completely. Something is also holding up Boone County. That is the University of Missouri, and Obama has a big lead.
All of Kansas City hasn’t come in either. Currently 56% Obama in Jackson County.
This is looking good for Obama at least to get all the delegates from St. Louis area CDs. If he actually wins I will be overjoyed to have been wrong.
4jkb4ia
Tennessee for Huckabee. Simcha all around.
Colorado: Obama.
4jkb4ia
Arizona: Clinton
Jen
The Huckster killed me. On the one hand, it scares me that Republicans used to content themselves with saying they weren’t going to raise your taxes, and now they’re not happy with anything less than abolishing the IRS.
On the other hand, he had a great line about Romney: Yesterday he told me not to whine. Yesterday he was against whining, now he’s for it.
Husband says HRC picking Huck as VP is the only way she’d win. :)
Caidence (fmr. Chris)
I still can’t figure out how they can call it after 15% counted. That has to assume some pretty solid trending.
I’m afraid this is going to be more of the same… Clinton wins prominently, but Obama takes more delegates. And nobody can figure out what the hell is going on.
…that also means more of myiq complaining that we’re mean to him. Damn.
Jen
NBC called Calif. for HRC.
Andrew
The best thing about MO is the basic numbers: Something like 800,000 voters for the Dems, just 600,000 for the Republicans.
D-Chance.
CNN calls California for Clinton and McCain.
4jkb4ia
Utah: Obama. Hubby applying pressure to go to bed.
empty
Racism!!!
/sarcasm
NickM
“Husband says HRC picking Huck as VP is the only way she’d win.”
If that was the case, she’d do it.
TheFountainHead
I think what I’m most interested in NOW, is how the fundraising goes for the campaigns tomorrow and into the weekend.
ThymeZone
Basically they compare precinct results with exit poll results in sampled areas. Based on their algorithms, once they know the actual vote counts in carefully sampled precincts, and compare them with the earlier-obtained exit poll results, they can produce a model that has a certain confidence level associated with it. If that level is over their magic line, they call. After 2000, that line is higher than it used to be.
Depending on the circumstances they can call with miniscule counts. Or, they may not call until they have a very large percentage of votes counted. Every race and every situation is different.
Andrew
I thought they rolled a d100 for each player character???
LiberalTarian
STFU. Lots of us remember what the 90s were like: LOTS OF FUCKING PROSPERITY. All that bullshit about “can’t stand listening to the media cry about the Clintons for another 8 years …” WTF cares. Nobody listened to them then, they were too busy having a job and prospects and opportunity.
I’m cool with Obama and Obamites, but damn. STFU. Supporting Clinton does not equal blasphemy.
Note that New York went to Clinton, and Arkansas. These are folks who have actually had the woman in their corner. If anyone was going to blink, it’d been them.
myiq2xu
Looks like most of them to me
The Other Steve
That’s going to be interesting out of California, seeing final results. In other states, Clinton did well in major urban centers, not so much everywhere else. So I suppose it’s possible that this comes out like Nevada.
Or at the very least, I think delegate results are much closer than popular vote in the state.
myiq2xu
WATB
The Other Steve
Agreed. I think it’s more important to look at the trending. How is Obama doing in states that Democrats haven’t normally won?
Hey, I see Mr. Denial Pie is back. We can remove the suicide watch.
TheFountainHead
No of course it doesn’t, but it also seems to mean you equate a Hillary presidency with a Bill Clinton presidency of a decade prior.
TheFountainHead
…and I still haven’t gotten a good answer as to why Obama does phenomenally in caucus states and falls behind polling in primary states….other than the obvious, glaring, unpretty one…
ThymeZone
Personally, I will be happy with a convention that isn’t a foregone conclusion.
I don’t know if that’s a realistic possibility, the convention rules are something of a mystery to me at this point.
I think that the Dems win the WH in November no matter which candidate is the nominee. I think that John McCain is the War Candidate, and I think if we are smart we make him the War Candidate and let him go around rasping about Withdrawal Dates and White Flags until he is blue in the fucking face, and he loses. I don’t see this country electing a War President again. It’s a mistake we made in 2004 and it won’t be repeated.
That said, who do I want in the White House next year?
Barack Obama. The more I see him, the more I like him, and if the race is still open two months from now, I think he can pull it off. I sincerely hope that he can.
CA is a big disappointment, but I have to remember, this is the state that elected Arnold and Ronald Reagan governor.
The Other Steve
Just gave $100 to Obama campaign.
Unlike Hillary supporters, I can still give $2100 more over the next month. Well, if I suddenly win the lottery anyway.
myiq2xu
Strange how with anything regarding Bill, Hillary gets none of the credit but half of the blame.
TheFountainHead
Well, that tends to happen when you try to stake a claim to that which isn’t yours.
LiberalTarian
Dude. Is it possible that 10% of California voters don’t know that Edwards dropped out??
Protest vote? Message vote??
Anne Laurie
My personal guess? A lot of hardcore Repubs snuck across the aisle and voted Hillary, because they figure she’ll be easier to beat in November than Mr. Magical Unity Pony. I’m a cynic, and this is Massachusetts.
TheFountainHead
My father (of all people) just sent me a text message that makes me feel a but better about the disappointment that California is looking to be:
“How many weeks do you have to go back for the idea of him to be within a 100 delegates of her on Super Tuesday to be completely audacious? The answer: 4”
Cain
TPM had some stuff about racism by Italian americans and some heavy lifting by Irish americans. I dunno.
cain
ThymeZone
I’m right there with you on the Giant Tote Board In The Sky, but I plan to scrape the coffers in the next few weeks and come up with more.
myiq2xu
California was progressive and then it was conservative, it was a red state during the 80’s before turning blue in the 90’s.
It has 10% of the electoral votes (20% of the votes necessary to win) and will go 100% for the Democratic nominee in November.
empty
.
It was a single email from a reader – but hey let’s promote it as an in-depth report.
ThymeZone
I’m a native, and I have lived in LA, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Orange and San Diego counties.
I don’t need any lectures from you about California. I also count fairly well.
It’s a fucked up state, politically. It’s too big, and ought to be two states. But that’s just my opinion.
California is home to Prop 13, the first of a series of self-governing blunders that sold the state out to anti-tax interests and left the state reeling only a few years ago from a power and revenue crisis of Titanic proportions.
And then there the state’s biggest embarassment: You.
LiberalTarian
So, with 20% of the vote in we see ~1 million Republican voters and ~1.2 million Democratic voters. This will be a lot more interesting when all the precincts report, and it would be cool to see the distribution of voters (i.e. how much redder SoCal is than NorCal).
I am on a pretty liberal campus, and of course, youngish people, but I haven’t seen a lot of Obama support. The only conversation I heard was about Obama talking about Bill dancing to gage whether he was a black guy or not, and the young men were not real impressed (neither were white).
But, we like Bill here. 10K to see him speak remember. So yeah, I think Bill affection is translating into Hillary votes here.
myiq2xu
Civil and polite as always. And you’re a unity fan.
ThymeZone
A little counter-intuitive there, butthead.
If I were a unity fan, why would I be polite to you?
Do you promote unity?
I guess I must have missed it.
myiq2xu
Why are you trying to pick a fight?
You’re wasting your time, and I’m not the enemy anyway.
ThymeZone
I’ll decide whether I am wasting my time, kid. Otherwise it ain’t my time.
I’m responding to your inane posts. If you want to call that picking a fight, that’s up to you.
So like I said, if I were a unity fan, why would I be polite to you? Or did I somehow miss the “point” of your previous post? You just spent most of the last month here defecating on a fine candidate for president and you want to bust me about unity? Fuck you.
myiq2xu
I like pie too!
ThymeZone
You are pie. Cowpie, to be precise.
But, I’m sure you’re arguing in good faith.
myiq2xu
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
LiberalTarian
You know they say liberals can’t ever get anything done because trying to get liberals to agree is like herding cats.
I know guys like to bust each other’s balls, but come on.
Hate on the GOP. They deserve it.
Hating on each other’s Dem candidates is bad for the party. You gonna stay home if your favorite isn’t picked? Then, as the trite saying goes, you aren’t part of the solution … you’re part of the problem.
LiberalTarian
UT vote stuff:
Obama: ~70.1K votes 57% of the vote
Clinton: ~58.6K 39%
Romney: ~252.9K 90%
McCain: ~15.2K 5%
I’m sure UT is not representative of the western states (obviously Cali is different), but these are the kinds of numbers we should look at. Dems don’t look to take UT in November.
Cain
The gap between Clinton and Obama seem to be shrinking.
Clinton: 53% Obama: 37%
I expect Clinton to win but shrinking the lead is a good thing.
cain
Cain
Ooops, that was in California…
cain
ninerdave
Yeah, it ain’t 1992, either. In case you hadn’t noticed, Bush I left the country in a lot better shape than Bush II. Never mind the fact that Clinton rode the tech bubble. I don’t see another tech bubble on the horizon.
Frankly, anyone that wants to be President after this mess is insane in my book.
However: GO!!! O-BAM-MA!! Yes we can! I’ve upped my monthly contribution to $50 a month.
LiberalTarian
There was some good damn policy in the Clinton years. So, I am fine with a Clinton in the Whitehouse.
I have misgivings about Obama. But, come November, if he is the nominee, I’ll vote for him. Not only that, I’ll campaign for the bastard.
Anne Laurie
Not while us non-Califroggians have to put up with “Governor Ahnuld”, ThymeZone.