The GOP Race

So the GOP race is apparently now wide open, and I would put money on Romney from here on out. The base hates McCain, and already efforts are underway to swift boat him (via Oliver):

“Today, a shadowy political organization calling itself ‘Vietnam Veterans Against McCain’ launched a vicious attack on John McCain in an attempt to impugn his character in the closing days of the South Carolina Republican Primary,” Orson Swindle, who was a fellow prisoner of war in Vietnam with Mr. McCain, said in a statement put out by the campaign. “The group claims that John McCain turned his back on his fellow POWs in order to save his own skin.”

I think his campaign has already peaked, and it will be all downhill for him. Huckabee is so much of a fraud that I find it impossible to believe he could last, so it really looks like the deep pockets and the institutional love for the establishment Romney will carry him to victory.

Are we looking at Romney/Huckabee 2008?






60 replies
  1. 1
    Jen says:

    I’ve always thought they’d go with Romney. I’m glad, because I’d actually be a little worried about McCain. Especially McCain v. Clinton — ugh.

    I would like to say that for smearing McCain’s military service the American public would hand the smearears their butts, but sadly I can’t.

  2. 2
    Xanthippas says:

    Today, a shadowy political organization calling itself ‘Vietnam Veterans Against McCain’ launched a vicious attack on John McCain in an attempt to impugn his character in the closing days of the South Carolina Republican Primary…

    Should we really be “shadowy political organizations” in a democracy?

    Campaign finance reform anyone?

  3. 3
    Ed Drone says:

    I am more or less ambivalent about the Republicans this year — I wouldn’t vote for a single one of them — but I sort of hope their candidate is Mitt, because …

    then we get to see who he chooses as “Jeff.”

    I can’t wait to refer to their ticket as “Mitt and Jeff” and mock them unmercifully.

    Ed

  4. 4
    Xanthippas says:

    after “be” and before “shadowy political organizations” insert “talking about”.

    Thank you.

  5. 5
    4tehlulz says:

    I doubt that Huckabee would want to be on a ticket with a cultist Romney.

    The VP is going to be some total unknown, like Quayle was in ’88.

  6. 6
    Jim says:

    Then again, should Romney lose in SC and Florida, as is likely, what then? It’s like a game of hot potato where each state is handed the winner from the previous state and can’t get rid of him fast enough.

  7. 7
    Jen says:

    Ooh, Xan, the First Amendment again!

    I would assume they’re called “shadowy” because it’s hard to pinpoint who they are, who’s backing them, if they were to make an ad who would fund it, etc. Some of these 527s that are issue-based in name only and de facto surrogates for a candidate are, I think, pretty shadowy.

    I have pretty much just thrown my hands up at the quandary of how to make the election process less disgusting.

  8. 8
    clone12 says:

    Orson Swindle, head of Reagan’s Federal Trade Commission.

    It’s right up there with Lieutenant-Colonel Gary Coward of NATO.

    I’m quite sure Lt-Col. Coward can beat me into a pulp with his little pinkie; chalk it up as an unfortunated reverse aptonym.

  9. 9
    4tehlulz says:

    then we get to see who he chooses as “Jeff.”

    I heard that Jeff Gannon might be interested in hooking up with Mitt.

  10. 10
    jenniebee says:

    Is anybody else excited about all these candidates actually having to go more than two states deep in the primaries, maybe even getting to the point where it’s a horse race through to the very end of the nominating process, with the delegates at the convention actually showing up to do something more than party for the party? It’s like we’re living in a democracy or something. Who knew?

  11. 11
    libarbarian says:

    WOW!

    I MEAN WOW!!!

    Jonah,

    I wanted to drop you a note to let you know I immensely enjoyed your
    talk last night. Now I know what a tween must feel like at a Hannah
    Montana concert. My girlfriend commented that each response to a
    question you gave sounded like you went home, researched for a few
    hours and revised your response for a few more. We were both duly
    impressed. So few people with the brains can package the conservative
    message as well as you. You are simply, razor sharp. It was quite a
    treat.

    The blind leading the blind.

  12. 12
    Kirk Spencer says:

    I think we’re going to see a brokered convention. As in none of them get the magic 1173 delegates (or 1191, depending on sanctions relieved).

    As of right now, though, McCain has a shot. Recent polls have him competing for the win in South Carolina, Nevada, and Florida. If he takes two of the three (much less all three) he’s going to have enough momentum for Feb 5 that I’d expect him winning a lot of those all-or-nothing states — and Feb 5 is the assignation of 1081 delegates.

    Like you, though, I don’t think he’ll do that – there’s a really nasty resistance to it happening. So I think we’ll see three or four people (Guiliani has to have Florida to sustain any chance, but if he does he gets a bounce in some big Super Tuesday states) with strong delegate numbers. And we will see lots and lots of cigar smoke in Minneapolis-St. Paul this September.

  13. 13
    Grand Moff Texan says:

    These guys were getting press (wingnut daily? men’s daily news?) in 2000, iirc.

    Rush Limbaugh immediately launched an all-anti-McCain, all the time campaign on McCain after a primary victory over Bush.

    And they’re using all the same talking points.
    .

  14. 14
    Jake says:

    When the hell was this? The Jo-Nothing I saw sounded like a Sharpie Marker huffer giving a report on a book he skimmed a couple of hours before his presentation.

    Now I know what a tween must feel like at a Hannah Montana concert.

    OK, this is one reason neo-cons make me puke. When they aren’t marching around screaming about the threat posed by teh ghey, they say shit that makes ME say “Damn, that’s fucking gay!”

    See also Hugh Spewitt jizzing himself to the point of dehydration over Mittens.

    Gah. Maybe they don’t want the competition.

  15. 15
    4tehlulz says:

    So few people with the brains can package the conservative message as well as you. You are simply, razor sharp. It was quite a treat.

    I am having the worst time believing this was serious.

  16. 16
    D-Chance. says:

    McCain has no shot. The fundies gutted him in SC, and they’ve got the Huckster this time around. Romney has the blue-bloods and country-clubbers and propaganda machine (Fox, talk radio, mainstream blogs). If he should win the nomination by some strange set of events, he’ll get tepid support from the party machine, at best, in the generals.

  17. 17
    merciless says:

    The republicans are going to beat each other to death before we even get to the convention. I expect Rudy will lose in Florida, and then February 5 will be all over the map for them.

    Brokered convention? Newt Gingrich waltzing in as the savior of the party? Oh, this is going to be too good.

  18. 18
    gypsy howell says:

    Lets face it — what does McCain really have going for him besides being an ex-POW? If he can’t wear the mantle of ‘American War Hero,’ he’s got nothing. I think the alleged smear actually works in his favor by keeping his storyline alive.

  19. 19
    in canaduh says:

    and the guy’s name is Swindle??

  20. 20
    in canaduh says:

    Romney/Cheney in ’08?

  21. 21
    merciless says:

    Oh, and I agree with 4teh above. Huck would never be on a ticket with Romney, and if he was persuaded to be on it, the fundies would drop them like a rock.

  22. 22
    myiq2xu says:

    The VP is going to be some total unknown, like Quayle was in ‘88.

    What do you mean by “was?”

  23. 23
    myiq2xu says:

    Orson Swindle

    Of the law firm “Dewey, Cheatum & Howe?”

  24. 24
    4tehlulz says:

    What do you mean by “was?”

    I don’t know about you, but I think quite a large chunk of the country went “who?” when that name surfaced.

  25. 25
    Mike W says:

    Mitt/Newt ’08

  26. 26
    Malice in Wonderland says:

    I would like to say that for smearing McCain’s military service the American public would hand the smearears their butts, but sadly I can’t.

    Fuck McCain’s service record. Americans proved by the shameful treatment of Kerry in 2004 that service records don’t matter, and McCain didn’t stand up for his supposed friend.

  27. 27
    TenguPhule says:

    “The group claims that John McCain turned his back on his fellow POWs in order to save his own skin.

    And unlike the smear on Kerry that McCoward did nothing to stop, this one has some basis in fact.

    He did break under enemy torture. And one could make snide remarks that judging from his political career, it wasn’t that hard of a job for them.

  28. 28
    myiq2xu says:

    I don’t know about you, but I think quite a large chunk of the country went “who?” when that name surfaced.

    Why do you keep using the past tense?

  29. 29
    Robert Johnston says:

    I don’t know about you, but I think quite a large chunk of the country went “who?” when that name surfaced.

    I think the point was that Quayle is unknown. Not one American in a hundred could tell you anything he’s done since being Veep or even anything he did as Veep. Quayle was Veep, he was a congressman from Indiana before that, and he was really stupid: that exhausts what people know about him, and a lot wouldn’t even know the Congressman bit.

  30. 30
    Punchy says:

    Orson Swindle

    Are you fucking kidding me? There’s apropos, and then there’s this guy’s name.

    Will these guys ever let Vietnam just fucking die?

  31. 31
    myiq2xu says:

    I’m surprised nobody is blaming the Great Orange Satan for Mitt’s victory.

    I guess they don’t want to give him that much credit.

    Mitt is as fake as a porn star’s tits. Hell, “Mitt” isn’t even his real name.

    He’s perfect for the GOP

  32. 32
    Charity says:

    DAMN. There are many reasons that John McCain shouldn’t be president, but denigrating the man’s military service? That’s low.

  33. 33
    The Other Steve says:

    Will these guys ever let Vietnam just fucking die?

    From reading some of the vets against mccain sites, apparently they’re also mad at him because he didn’t buy into the whole ‘There are MIA Americans living in Vietnam prison camps today’ stuff in the 1980s.

    I would say the answer is no.

  34. 34
    Jorge says:

    Isn’t the reals tests for Romney Nevada and Florida? The guy led in the polls in Michigan for over 5 of the past 6 months and McCain’s brief spike disappeared by this weekend. Romney won his home state were his dad had been a former governor by promising to bring great jobs back to Detroit.

    The most telling moment from last night’s commentary came to me from Tim Russert. He was gushing about Romney’s win and said “I remember growing up in Buffalo when we were losing all kinds of manufacturing jobs. I couldn’t imagine a politician (McCain) having come and told those hard working folks that those jobs were gone for good.”

    Um, did I miss something or did all those manufacturing jobs come back? Romney is incapable of telling anyone anything they don’t want to hear and therefore the vast majority of people think he’s full of crap.

    People keep dismissing Huckabee and he keeps hanging around and building momentum. Every day that Huck survives is a day that a few more cynics start to believe he might be able to survive. He won Iowa and got 3d place in New Hamsphire and 3d place in Michigan – beating Rudy soundly in two states that he could have owned.

    Huck can get 2nd or 3d in Nevada. Romney could come in fourth in Nevada behind McCain, Rudy and Huck. Romney is more than likely going to come in 3d or 4th in SC and Florida. Then you head into Super Tuesday – where does he win there?

    In a year of deeply, deeply flawed candidates, don’t discount Huck, the guy who can own 30% of the Republican base. My guess is that he will sweep the deep south and can pick up alot of delegates in 2nd and 3d place finishes all over place.

    Rudy is going to tank outside of the big north-east states and Florida. Heck, he went from a high of 40 in Cali to running behind McCain and Romney and tying Huckabee in the 2008 polls.

    Dismissing Huck is dangerous. The guy could very easily head into a brokered convention with the most delegates by a wide margin.

  35. 35
    Brachiator says:

    Are we looking at Romney/Huckabee 2008?

    I can’t see The Man The Myth Romney seriously considering Mike “the mark of the Huckabeast” as a VP choice. The GOP establishment enjoys pandering to religious conservatives, but really doesn’t want them too close to the seat of power. Also, Huckabee’s populist leanings does not amuse the GOP Tory set.

    I agree with some others that the wildest speculation involves Newt swooping down from his perch to break a convention deadlock and become the party’s nominee.

  36. 36
    The Other Steve says:

    From reading some of the vets against mccain sites, apparently they’re also mad at him because he didn’t buy into the whole ‘There are MIA Americans living in Vietnam prison camps today’ stuff in the 1980s.

    I was thinking. This may explain why Chuck Norris endorsed Huckabee.

    We’re still waiting on the coveted Rambo endorsement.

  37. 37
    ThymeZone says:

    John McCain probably set this up. He lives for the opportunity to inject Hanoi into his campaign, the way Rudy lives for the use of Nine Eleven.

    McCain honestly thinks that his POW experience entitles him to special treatment, not as a citizen, which it does, but as a politician and government official, which it does not.

  38. 38
    Jorge says:

    One last thing about Mitt –

    Mitt will cost the GOP the evangelical base. Being an evangelical (progressive – we’re like Albino owls) living in rural Georgia, there is no way that the evangelical base will accept a mormon for POTUS.

  39. 39
    ThymeZone says:

    there is no way that the evangelical base will accept a mormon for POTUS.

    If the choice is a black Democrat, or Hillary, versus the Mormon?

    Just asking. Because that could be the choice. Won’t they hold their nose and vote for the Mormon? Or, will they vote at all?

  40. 40
    Jorge says:

    Newt has been advising Huckabee. So, there is also a very strong possibility that Newt comes in to support Huckabee and ends up playing the Dick Cheney/VP role to Huck. Huckabee is much more palapable to the center than Newt and the establishment can rest assured that they’ll have a powerful voice in the White House.

  41. 41
    gypsy howell says:

    John McCain probably set this up. He lives for the opportunity to inject Hanoi into his campaign, the way Rudy lives for the use of Nine Eleven.

    I wasn’t going to go so far as to suggest that McCain set this up, but I’ll admit, it crossed my mind. McCain’s just one more crooked rightwing wackjob without his POW story.

    Me, I’m really tired of people worshipping the military. Our bloated military and ‘defense’ industry (HA! when was the last time we used our military for ‘defense,’ anyway?) is destroying this country.

  42. 42
    Punchy says:

    “Mitt” isn’t even his real name

    Wha? what is it?

  43. 43
    peach flavored shampoo says:

    Huckabee is much more palapable to the center than Newt and the establishment can rest assured that they’ll have a powerful voice in the White House.

    God?

  44. 44
    Jorge says:

    Thymezone,
    There is a good chance that you’d see a third party candidate emerge. And a third party candidate can actually rally both the social conservatives and the few die hard older southern Democrats who have told me they’d vote Republican if Obama was on the ticket.

    I don’t mean to make it sound like all Evangelicals are bigots or that all will abandon the Republican party over the issue. But if say a third of them do and a vast majority of the rest decide they’ll hold their nose and vote for Mitt, they won’t be putting any signs on their lawns or campaigning and they sure won’t give him money.

    It will also silence alot of the preachers who thinly veil pro-Republican messages into their sermons.

    It will also force many preachers to preach to their congregation about Mormonism – the viceral reaction to a candidate who believes that Christ was conceived by God having intercourse with Mary, that the New King James bible is flawed because of its translation, that God was once a man like we are, and that Jesus, God and the Holy Ghost are completely separate beings and that the Trinity refers to a triumvirate of Gods, well, that reaction is going to be pretty darned strong.

  45. 45
    Jorge says:

    God and Newt. And not necessarily in that order.

  46. 46
    Jorge says:

    Willard is his first name. He goes by his middle name.

    Though i can imagine what the Reps would say if Obama still went by Barry like he did for the first 20 years of his life.

  47. 47

    Are we looking at Romney/Huckabee 2008?

    C’mon, the smart money is on Frist/Allen ’08! Oops, it is 2008, thought I was back in 2005….

  48. 48
    MaryS-NJ says:

    “The VP is going to be some total unknown, like Quayle was in ‘88.”

    Romney? Mr. Focus-Group-Tested, prefab Republibot? I would bet he’ll pick a running mate like Condi Rice… a black! female! conservative with Southern roots.

    That way, whether Obama, Clinton or Edwards win the Dem nomination, he can say “we got a three-fer”!

    Not that I’m cynical or anything…

  49. 49
    Tsulagi says:

    I would put money on Romney from here on out.

    I wouldn’t bet the house, but yeah, I think he has the edge too. Mainly because he has money. While McCain has been reduced to looking under the sofa cushions for loose change for months. Rudy? He’s been on a slow-burn implosion for the past couple months. While mayor, he just couldn’t keep his dick in his dress to save his soul. Grandpa Fred never woke up.

    Romney/Huckabee 2008?

    God has a sense of humor. If that became the ticket, I would go out and get my coveted big-screen LCD TV just to watch The Daily Show and Colbert.

  50. 50
    Face says:

    the viceral reaction to a candidate who believes that Christ was conceived by God having intercourse with Mary,

    Damn, learn something every day. Karl Malone fans believin that God nailed Mary. Hmmmm. Something tells me there MUST have been hotter chicks for The Big G to schtoop than some poor disheveled woman too unkempt to flirt her way into a motel room .

    I call shenanigans.

  51. 51
    4tehlulz says:

    Romney? Mr. Focus-Group-Tested, prefab Republibot?

    There is no way he would pick Condi, or anyone in this administration. As much as he likes to talk about this administration, he knows Bushies are radioactive in the general.

    I has proofs here.

    Also, Mitt/Newt would be a Godsend to the Democrats; they could nominate a brick and it would win 30 to 35 states.

  52. 52
    Cassidy says:

    He did break under enemy torture.

    Everyone breaks under torture. It’s never about will, but when.

    Me, I’m really tired of people worshipping the military. Our bloated military and ‘defense’ industry (HA! when was the last time we used our military for ‘defense,’ anyway?) is destroying this country.

    Ha! This is too funny. Worship? That’s complete BS. The best part is this:

    If the military were gutted, as you’d like to see, the biggest impact would be on the local civilian populace(s) when they lose over half their economy and the massive job losses. A little secret, the military is almost like a welfare jobs program for civilians.

  53. 53
    MaryS-NJ says:

    “There is no way he would pick Condi, or anyone in this administration. As much as he likes to talk about this administration, he knows Bushies are radioactive in the general.”

    But… but she’s black! and female! /snark

    You’re right, of course. The Bush regime is toxic.

    Mitt/Newt does have a ring to it. Or more of the thud actually.

  54. 54
    Ron Beasley says:

    Are we looking at Romney/Huckabee 2008?

    Short answer NO. A Clinton/Obama ticket on the other hand? Could happen!

  55. 55
    Mike W says:

    Hell, “Mitt” isn’t even his real name.

    Mitt is his real middle name.

  56. 56
    Grumpy Code Monkey says:

    If the military were gutted, as you’d like to see, the biggest impact would be on the local civilian populace(s) when they lose over half their economy and the massive job losses. A little secret, the military is almost like a welfare jobs program for civilians.

    I can’t argue with that. I remember when BRAC shut down Kelly AFB in San Antonio; that effing hurt. However, that doesn’t justify continued wasteful spending. Cheney may be the living embodiment of evil, but he did earn my respect as SECDEF when he killed programs like the A-12 when costs started spiraling out of control.

  57. 57
    4tehlulz says:

    Back to the lulzfest that is the GOP, I will laugh hysterically if this happens:

    AP:

    No major GOP candidate has set foot in the state for two months, and some Republicans are bracing for a possible surprise first-place showing by long-shot Texas Rep. Ron Paul, the only Republican to broadcast TV ads in Nevada.

  58. 58
    Jorge says:

    Face,
    Your insulting, condescening remarks about the mother of God are extremely offensive.

    But I’ll let you of the hook cause it made laugh. Still…

  59. 59
    Hypatia says:

    If news reports are correct, Romney did manage to win a share of the evangelical vote in Michigan. He also has tons of money and more states coming up with closed Republican primaries. Doesn’t mean there aren’t potential problems ahead, but it’s looking good for him.

  60. 60
    Jorge says:

    Hum – looking at the polls again, McCain is leading in South Carolina, Nevada and Florida. He’s ahead in California as well. And the only post New Years poll from New York has him only 3 points behind Rudy in New York. One of the two post new years polls for New Jersey have McCain 3 points behind Rudy there.

    What would the race look like if McCain went into Supertuesday having won Nevada, SC, New Hamsphire and Florida?

    And while I know that post New Hampshire Hillary we should all hate polls, the averages have gotten both Iowa contest right, one New Hampshire right and Michingan right.

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