The Belgravia Dispatch this morning highlighted this FT piece:
President George W. Bush’s campaign to stay the course in Iraq is taking a new and constitutionally dangerous turn. When Senator John Warner recently called for a troop withdrawal by Christmas, the White House did not mount its usual counterattack. It allowed a surprising champion to take its place. Major General Rick Lynch, a field commander in Iraq, summoned reporters to condemn Mr Warner’s proposal as “a giant step backwards”.
It was Maj Gen Lynch who was making the giant step into forbidden territory. He had no business engaging in a public debate with a US senator. His remarks represent an assault on the principle of civilian control – the most blatant so far during the Iraq war.
Nobody remarked on the breach. But this only makes it more troubling and should serve as prologue for the next large event in civilian-military relations: the president’s effort to manipulate General David Petraeus’s report to Congress.
Mr Bush has pushed Gen Petraeus into the foreground to shore up his badly damaged credibility. But in doing so, he has made himself a hostage. He needs the general more than the general needs him. Despite the president’s grandiose pretensions as commander-in-chief, the future of the Iraq war is up to Gen Petraeus.
The general’s impact on Congress will be equally profound. If he brings in a negative report, Republicans will abandon the sinking ship in droves; if he accentuates the positive, it is the Democrats who will be spinning.
In fact, if not in name, it will be an army general who is calling the shots – not the duly elected representatives of the American people.
And according to the NY Times, at least we don’t have to wait until the 11th:
Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top American commander in Iraq, has told President Bush that he wants to maintain heightened troop levels in Iraq well into next year to reduce the risk of military setbacks, but could accept the pullback of roughly 4,000 troops beginning in January, in part to assuage critics in Congress, according to senior administration and military officials.
General Petraeus’s view is considered overly cautious by some other senior military officials and some members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, officials said. But they said it reflected his concern that the security gains made so far in Baghdad, Anbar Province and other areas were fragile and easily reversed.
Notice the language- “Could accept.” It is a good thing we have Generals out there to set our policies. Civilian control of the military would suck.
If there is anyone out there who honestly thought Petraeus would come to Congress on the 11th and tell us it was time for a substantial drawdown or anything other than that “the surge is working,” please surrender your car keys to someone sane. I don’t want you on the road. Bush made it clear in his interview with Draper that we are here for the long haul, and that is what is going to happen. We are going to be there, in large numbers, until the military breaks. Or longer. Just get used to it. There is nothing you can do, because the Decider has decided. The dog and pony show that comes next week is just to make things easier politically for continuing the course of action that has been chosen- the reports we may withdraw some troops were just something thrown out there to mollify the opposition before getting back to Operation “DO WHATEVER THE FUCK WE WANT.”
All of the reports of problems by independent and respected group and backed up by hard data don’t matter. Their recommendations don’t matter. All the administration needs to do is count on the Weekly Standard and Michael O’Hanlon and the rest of the crowd to go out and do what they have been doing for years, and this administration has the cover they need. And if you argue otherwise, Bush and his supporters will claim you aren’t giving our troops what they need to win. Or that it is just the liberal media reporting only bad news. Or that the Democrats want to screw the country again, just like they did in Vietnam. The fact that the GAO is now caught in the crossfire and they can smear it is just an extra bonus- they don’t like accountability in ANY form. If the GAO is collateral damage, that is just a lucky break- those guys have been a pain in the ass for Republicans the last six years.
And if you honestly thought anything different would happen, you are a complete and total idiot and have not paid one bit of attention the last few years. Welcome to permanent war, bitches.
*** Update ***
The Cunning Realist pulls it all together– if it is bad, we have to stay, if the situation is good, we have to stay. And for how long?
Pb
Yes, I think they’ve got that taken care of… I wonder just how many more weapons are now floating around the Middle East, thanks to us. (not to mention how much more heroin is flowing out of Afghanistan now, etc….)
sglover
The only reason to pay attention to the Petraeus dog & pony show is to see whether it’s the opening move in the disinfo campaign to launch the Iran war.
Nicholas Weaver
Also, don’t forget the obvious: A drawdown HAS to occur, as we simply don’t have the military.
Thus unless we want 18+ month tours for the army, or cuts of the 12 months at home, or a significant movement of sailors into ground-pounder roles, the current forces are going to HAVE to be reduced.
So accept a 4000 person cut in forces and make it sound like a salve to the democrats when it is simple operational necessity.
Fledermaus
But Kerry would have been worse!
Randolph Fritz
Or a draft. I think Bush wants the Democrats to vote for a draft.
Rick Taylor
“All of the reports of problems by independent and respected group and backed up by hard data don’t matter. Their recommendations don’t matter.”
I’m used to this by now. Of course this administration ignores the consensus of experts and specialists, no matter how many or how distinguished. They’ve done that since the beginning. By now it hardly raises my blood pressure anymore.
rachel
JWW in 5… 4… 3…
Chuck Butcher
There are other cures for this kind of behavior, but voting and pressing with free speech are preferable and considerably less messy. As bad as I get to feeling sometimes I try to avoid language that is quite so bleak and inevitible as that, John.
Really, now, if a person were quite sure of the descent into that Orwellian fascist world they would be morally obligated to take any measures to stop it. There are an awful lot of people who would be very dangerous if motivated to be so. Quite realistically all the Feds would be is an annoyance, so finality isn’t a real good frame.
TenguPhule
First, we need to shoot Bush and Cheney.
Then we need to shoot all of these generals and admirals.
And finally, the Democrats and Republicans in DC need to be up on that wall facing the firing squad.
I mean seriously, fuck this shit. Not only are we being run by tyrants and traitors, but they’re incompetent boobs to boot. And they’re playing with all those billions of dollars of killing technology like it’s a big game of Command and Conquer with infinite restarts.
TenguPhule
Unfortunately, we seem to be running out of those options.
Leader Desslok
Permanent war… sweet.
I was getting tired of this whole life thing anyway.
Can we nuke Tehran already?
Leader Desslok
You would think that treason would be a crime worthy of such a punishment… and I’d say at this point that they have betrayed the US Constitution.
But don’t look at me, I don’t own any weapons and I’m a lousy shot anyway. Still, I do believe that these people will eventually be held to account and that motherfuckers will in fact be put up against the wall/go to jail or whatever.
I just hope I live to see it.
grumpy realist
Just to be a bit of a wonk here, but the term “treason” is one of those spelled out in the Constitution simply because the Founding Fathers saw what happened when authorities were able to shove any old thing under it. Witness a lot of Europe.
What Bush is doing is NOT treason, because this actute incompetence is NOT being done deliberately on behalf of another country. It is destroying the country, but it is not treason.
Unfortunately, a lot of other idiots in the US look to be wanting to go down the same path. Personally, I’d like to take every single bloody Dominionist and Believer-in-the-Rapture, stuff them into Kansas, build a huge wall around it, and leave them alone. In less than 20 years I predict the place will have the economic base of Zimbabwe, but stupidity should hurt.
Redhand
What’s the problem Mr. Cole? The Decider isn’t hiding behind Gen Petraeus or relying on his opinions. As Commander in Chief he recently went to Iraq and made his own, independent assessment. Didn’t you hear? “We’re kicking ass.”
Wilfred
That’s General Petraeus reporting in the Washington Post on Sep 26 2004, 6 weeks before the election. What’s left to say? He’s a political hack.
yet another jeff
I don’t mean this in a gay way, but you’re beautiful when you’re angry. Nice post…so…anyone have any ideas how to get the car keys away from Bush and the rest of the “If the Rapture doesn’t come to us, we’ll go to the Rapture” crowd?
fecapult
General strike.
Gus
General strike will never happen. People are too on the edge economically. It might have worked before the unions started losing their power.
fecapult
I just don’t wanna be at work today…
Third Eye Open
500,000 people streaming into congress, filling hallways and bathrooms…every single one of them seeking out their respective representatives, eating their donuts and drinking their coffee…give it about a week and I bet John Stewart and Colbert are out there, personally blowing up the beach-balls and poking eye-sockets with rhetorical pointy sticks.
IOW, We’re in yer house, pissin’ off yer dudez
Zifnab
Just give me a time and a meeting place. I’ve got some vacation days built up.
whippoorwill
I would really hate to see the GAO get smeared and have it stick. I used to work for the feds way back when and dealt with GAO investigators on several occasions and they were truly a class act among the beancounters and watchdog agencies. I never saw any partisanship nor anything short of a fair reading of the facts.
I’m hoping that no one is still listening to the 28 percenters. And for today I am choosing believe in furry puppies, apple pie and half full glasses.
zzyzx
Of course it’s permanent war! Didn’t you read Rick Santorum’s column in NRO today?
Yes, the greatest threat in the history of our country wasn’t when we were facing expansionist empires with powerful armies and a strong industrial bases. Nope! That role comes from some terrorist groups who are so incredibly powerful that their leader has to hide away in a cave if he’s not already dead.
Is there any chance we can get some perspective here?
Third Eye Open
Zif,
Look man, i’m working as we speak to mine whatever contacts I have in the power structures (HA!) of the progressive movement, I figure if we can get a week or two of decent face time on the blogs, we can mobilize at the very least a few thousand, ten thousand perhaps and accomplish this…the leverage point is getting Stewart and Colbert (A. Cooper?) to pay enough attention to get a relatively well spoken representative into the 30-second news cycle and start letting the reps know that the generation they are going to be relying on in the next few elections is watching, and we are with them, but understandably pissed…if you really are interested i would love to discuss the pitfalls and harships that would be involved with an envedour such as this.
Xenos
Bush has repeatedly stated that Iraq policy should be set by the commanders on the ground and not by “politicians in Washington”, a category that certainly must include the president himself.
Since Bush has apparantly abdicated, can we get on with impeaching President Cheney and face up to actually run this war? It would be nice if somebody constitutionally fit to run this joint could be bothered to get around to it.
Punchy
Please write this down: In September 2008, Bush will accept a ~40-50K troop drawdown. Of course, this is ~5 months past the “April 2008 military is broken” point most Generals talk about, but Bush doesn’t care.
He’ll do it purely to help the GOP candidate. Long after the military is trashed, he’ll game the elections by pulling some royally PTSD’d soliders out of the hell-hole.
Great post, JC. Masterpiece.
Punchy
By the way, some easy math:
(4000/160,000)*100% = 2.5%
Yeah, that’s substantial.
Punchy
Fuck you, too. I’m pretty sure meant Mississippi.
scarshapedstar
Man, who could have expected that a cocaethylene-addled dilletante who never worked a day in his life and refuses to even sit at his desk for more than 2 hours without an Xbox break would be so perverse as to base his opinions of the war on the words of people who are honor-bound not to disagree with him (“Hey, buzzcut, are we kickin’ ass?” “Sir, yes sir!” “Hey, stretch, how’s morale?” “Sir, very good, sir!”) and sit around and eat jelly beans like the last profoundly retarded GOP idol while mercenaries rob the country blind and the outnumbered Army is forced, Charge of the Light Brigade style, to drive again and again down booby-trapped highways while trying to explain to the irate locals that the guys in camo who raped and killed their daughters weren’t really soldiers and besides there’s no controlling legal authority?
Oh, that’s right. The 55 million of us who didn’t vote for this catastrafuck and, along with everyone else on the planet, begged and pleaded the authoritarian dead-enders to come to their senses and step back from the brink of killing a million innocent people for the sake of “pissin’ off Yurup”.
To no fucking avail whatsoever.
Andrew
Three words: Man on dog.
Of course we’re not going to get any perspective.
Zifnab
I’m always interested. I wish I could say I had connections.
Third Eye Open
Zif,
When I say connections, mostly I mean DFHs and pleading with blogs, in my tortured syntax and horrible spelling, that there is hope yet for this generation, despite the apparent apathy and deer in the headlight mentality.
ohhh, look!, something shiny!
Jake
A question: With a force of this size, could 4K represent troops who were already scheduled to leave? I am thinking of soldiers who were wounded, found fit for battle and returned to theater until became clear that they really weren’t fit for battle, regular discharges and even just plain fuck ups who were about to get booted anyway.
Before you lock me in a quiet room for even considering the fact that he might let that many go, my thinking is he’ll point to discharges that would have occurred any way and say “There, you whiny ass titty babies. There’s your damn draw down. Now shut up and let me get my war on.”
In the words of the late lamented Bob Barker:
Come on down! September 15th, Washington, DC.
Davebo
John,
It’s time for you to face reality.
This war won’t end until the Chinese get tired of paying for it.
CaseyL
Well, I’ll tell you one thing.
If we go to war against Iran, I can give up the struggle to stop smoking. Because, y’know, what’s the point?
In the meantime: general strike? Hell, yes. That, I can do!
grandpa john
So Sanitarium cites as evidence of good news a poll taken by the same outfit that hires insane nutballs like him, a poll whose results are as non-credible as he is, and he expects anyone to actually give more than about 10 seconds worth of attention to it?
So how does one go about getting transferred to an alternate universe in which there is a republican party made of people who live in reality and are sane?
Jake
4K troops? Hmmmm…
Zifnab
Well… and now I really am going to sound like a whiny ass titty baby, but you’re going to have to give me more than a week’s notice.
Evinfuilt
That has the most potential for success. I know that if they decide to “nuke” Iran, I’m packing the wagon and driving to DC. BBQ in tow.
Punchy
A little OT, but remember that Patreus report? Remember how in Sept, they were going to release some treatise declaring all the good and bad of Iraq?
Yeah, me neither.
Holy shit.
lambert strether
The Theory Of We Get To Do Whatever The Fuck We Want has been carefully crafted by Federalist Society elves working in the dungeons under the Naval Observatory.
Meanhile, the Beltway Dems are operating under the totally oppositional Theory Of He Gets To Do Whatever The Fuck He Wants, Even When We Write Him A Stern Letter Expressing Concerns.
So it’s not surprising that Bush is, in fact, doing whatever the fuck he wants.
CaseyL
Sorry, no. ANSWER is precisely the sort of organization we do NOT need in charge of anti-war activities: they delegitimize any cause foolish enough to work with them.
DC in CDA
Xeno:
NYT:
Paraphrase: I want to keep the troops in place but if it’ll shut Congress up, I’ll send some guys home.
Uh-huh, so the top dog in Iraq is essentially saying that he’s willing to make decisions on political concerns back home over/instead of strategic concerns on the ground. Can this guy be fired yet?
The Bush Administration: Politics over Reality since 2001
grumpy realist
OT, but have just found another choice “but no one would have DREAMED that….” quote in today’s FT.
(In an article on structured investment vehicles–one of the problem points of the recent subprime mortgage mess, quoting one policy maker): “Nobody had imagined a scenario where the money markets froze up like this. It just wasn’t in the stress testing models.”
Ha! Keep this up and we’ll have enough for a March of Folly, Round Two.
Dreggas
So finally pissed off enough to go to DC? LOL.
Jake
Frankly I don’t care who organizes such an event provided I feel fairly certain the majority of participants won’t throw shit at the cops. Fortunately ANSWER isn’t the only anti-war group out there.
Your friendly neighborhood Unwashed-hippy Universalist church is also a good source of info for such events.
Dreggas
Agreed, between them and “World Can’t Wait” I wouldn’t give a pinky nails worth of support. Working with them is like cindy sheehan appearing for a photo op with Hugo Chavez.
Davebo
Here is an excellent list of questions for Petreaus if anyone in congress had the balls to ask them.
Dreggas
Yeah, day one on the patch, here. Of course one of my motivations is living long enough to see the world blown up or at least see my apartment become beach front property so there IS an incentive.
Dennis-SGMM
Oh yeah, the Petraeus/Crocker dog and pony show will wow ’em in Congress.
Petraeus will gloss over the fact that the Sunni and Shia have pretty much killed or driven off their opposite numbers within their zones of control and attribute the resulting decrease in sectarian violence to the surge.
Crocker will cite the increased availability of volleyballs and suntan lotion, as well as the fact that there have been no actual firefights inside the Iraqi parliament, to declare progress.
Congressional Republicans will lap it up. Congressional Democrats will be relieved that they don’t have to stand for anything.
Jake
OT:
A warning: If you normally do not have vivid dreams, take it off before bed time.
Friends who aren’t prone to acid-trip like dreams have reported the sort of nightmares that made them want to pull their eye lids off so they could never sleep again. I and a few others – who usually get the Timothy Leary treatment every night – found it has a sort of Ritalin for ADD effect.
Maybe they changed the mix since I used the things, check for a warning about nightmares on the info sheet.
Good luck.
The Mechanical Eye
What I hate is how much we now fetishize the military — the military is the only major institution that still has credibility, so it gets special deference from the civilians who supposedly oversee it.
Everyone’s bullshit detectors get turned off whenever a man in uniform approaches, lest we give offense. This is blind loyalty, and Congress ought to grow a pair and not get stared down by The Decider’s spokesman.
DU
ThymeZone
Same here, I will be there. I have plenty of PTO on the books right now. And I have done the marching in the streets thing before.
Please don’t post any talk about shooting government officials around here. That could be a violation of the law, for one thing. And inappropriate, for another. But mainly, it could get you in trouble, and we don’t need that.
ThymeZone
All true. Don’t sleep with the patch on.
After many years of futile efforts to quit, using every known device, program and strategy, I quit successfully two years ago completely cold turkey. There’s a story that goes with it, but it showed me that it’s all in your head. From the moment I made the decision, you couldn’t have paid me a million dollars to light up a cigarette and I have never looked back.
My point is, don’t give up. Keep at it. Give yourself plenty of chances. I was the most devoted nicotine addict on earth. If I can do it anyone can do it. I was pathetic and failed so many times. Just don’t quit trying to quit.
Zifnab
That’s one more legacy from Republican bullshit in Vietnam. The “why do you hippies hate our troops” myth that was told about people spitting on soldiers in airports and turning veterans out onto the streets in vast numbers because evil liberal corporations wouldn’t hire them. Kent State was a conspiracy to lower army recruitment. You know, the standard lines.
We absolutely, positively, 100% have to trust our military commanders, nevermind Oliver North in Vietnam and Douglas McArthur in Korea should have taught us that Generals fuck up too. Why? Because Republicans told us so. When will people learn? Stop trusting Republicans!
ThymeZone
Amen.
Jinchi
You’re assuming that George Bush isn’t willing to burn out the U.S. military just to save his pride.
Dreggas
I tried the patch once before and left it on at night (note I tried it and wasn’t serious about quitting). I remember having some totally awesome vivid dreams. However I plan not to sleep with the patch on since I prefer sleeping and there are some dreams I would rather not remember.
jake
I know you’ve heard this a billion times before but don’t feel bad if you unquit. I think the mental pummelling people give themselves makes it harder the next time round.
I’m in the middle of an unquit period. Fortunately, I bought patches late last year and never used ’em. ;-)
Oh. And NEVER forget you’re wearing a patch and go somewhere public that you usually smoke (ie bars). If a person offers you one and you light up out of habit Mr. Heart will not like that.
Dreggas
thanks for the advice and support guys. Day is almost over here and it’s not been that bad. Of course seperating the physical and the mental/emotional has been a big help.
t. jasper parnell
Re the march on Washington; they are arresting they are already organizers.
Jess
Oh yeah. This one’s going up on my office door…
True for so many bad habits. For me it was being verbally abusive. One day (mid-divorce), I finally got it, and decided to never ever do it again, and haven’t. There’s a space between what you want to do, and what you do, and in that space you choose who you’re going to be.
Johnny Pez
That you know of.
Does anybody know if Junior ever visited Beijing when his dad was the U.S. envoy to China? I can totally see him sneaking out of the embassy compound at night to try to score some blow and get laid and being picked up by the PLA and taken to their secret brainwashing facility in the Forbidden City. I can totally see that.