Doing his job, apparently.
At a closed-door meeting in early January, [National Hurricane Center director Bill] Proenza told his bosses, including National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration head Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., that hurricane forecasts could suffer if the satellite known as QuikSCAT suddenly died. It was already more than three years past its life expectancy and running on a backup transmitter.
“We were on borrowed time, and I needed their support immediately,” Proenza recalled. “But I got no response. Nothing.
[…] “I got pushed back from some of my staff. They felt I was bringing in complications to their world,” Proenza said earlier this week in his first detailed interview since his removal.For forecasters, “perceived credibility is very, very important,” said Hugh Willoughby, a Florida International University professor who ran NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division from 1995 to 2002. “Their mission statement says to be the calm voice in the storm, and they perceived that what [Proenza] was saying was undermining people’s confidence.”
For me the bolded part is the real nut of this story. Like the administration it serves, forecasters at the NHS care first and foremost about perceived credibility. Real credibility, like making sure that they have the hardware to forecast accurately, plainly ranks second to giving a public impression that their forecasts are accurate.
To be quite fair I think the Bush administration hardly invented this particular mentality. Weather forecasters have been the butt of unreliability jokes since God created weather forecasters, so anybody would understand if forecasting professionals get tetchy on the subject. When a director shows up who really upsets the apple cart, the conflict described here seems inevitable under any administration. What caught my eye was what the administration actually did about it.
Remember, America is a country that has could really use accurate hurricane forecasting. The director of the nation’s Hurricane center has persuasively arguedg that the government soon will not be able to provide that service. On the other side, his staff is basically saying, “like, shut up.” Nobody has made any effort to refute his brief, they just want it to go away. After a national tragedy like Katrina, it would shame any normal administration to be seen siding publicly against the guy arguing for more and better resources for forecasting.
Today, not so much. Less and weaker scientific reporting suits this administration just fine, and there’s nothing they hate more than a whistleblower. Tough luck, Mr. Proenza, and if that satellite goes down, good luck finding insurance in southern Mississippi.
***Update***
Via a commenter, others report Bill Proenza’s position with far more skepticism than did the Washington Post. Read and evaluate for yourself, to me it sounds like Proenza might have deserved to go. Obviously there is nothing to criticize if the Bushies fired an impossible manager on a misguided crusade, so let’s put this post on provisional status for now.
Zifnab
“Now that we no longer have a weather satellite, when we say ‘No one could have predicted that storm’, we’re not lying. They really couldn’t.”
chopper
it’s okay. the president probably thought quickSCAT had something to do with poop and decided to de-fund it.
The Other Steve
Actually I was reading a different article on this, and there the scientists disagreed with Proenza on different grounds.
The scientists said Quiksat wasn’t that necessary for hurricaine prediction, as it’s purpose was to measure surface wind speeds. For hurricaines predictions the more useful measurement is upper level wind speeds.
They were upset with Proenza because he was pushing so hard for a replacement to Quiksat, trying to get something up there now and making it sound like it was fundamental to their mission. The scientists disagreed that it was fundamental, but it was useful and it would have been even more useful if they continued down the path of building a replacement which would allow it to do more. So they were fine with waiting for the new design in a few years.
I can’t find that article now, but here’s something from weather underground
RSA
I wonder if this case is a bit more complicated than it seems. Half of Proenz’a staff signed a letter asking for his removal, among them some senior research scientists. It would surprise me a great deal if the main reason for their letter was a matter of politics or perception–in the much lower-profile circles I move in, people are willing to tolerate quite a bit as long as they’re able to do their work.
RSA
On TOS’s point, here’s a bit of info from the NYT:
Punchy
Who besides Larry Coker’s replacement and people drinking in Nawlins really gives two shits about hurricanes?
dude
I think one of his main complaints was that they are going to spend $4,000,000 on a 200 year anniversary for NWS and at the same time not fund a replacement for the quickSCAT.
Rome Again
Certainly not anyone in Warshington. By the time any storms hit there, they’re only little itty bitty tropical depressions.
BIRDZILLA
And 2006 was suppost to be the worse hurricane season ever becuase of GLOBAL WARMING and the rediclous blabber of AL GORE
Once-ler
Kind of off-topic, but here’s another guy Bush fired for doing his job.
After all, what’s more important, upholding a 98 year old treaty with another country, or a dog fence?
Once-ler
Damn, the linky-thing didn’t work. I’ll figure it out someday. Anyway, here it is:
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070712/POLITICS/707120370/1003/METRO
Rome Again
Sounds like something awfully piddly for BushCo to involve themslves in. Did Barney protest this move and force George to take care of this matter? Hmmmmm.