Via Protein Wisdom, this NY Sun piece titled “Turnaround in Baghdad”:
What needs to be understood is the central role that Al Qaeda — or more accurately its successor organization, a group called the Islamic State of Iraq — is playing on these fronts and the diminishing role of all the other insurgent groups.
The wider Sunni insurgency — the groups beyond Al Qaeda — is being slowly, and surely, defeated. The average insurgent today feels demoralized, disillusioned, and hunted. Those who have not been captured yet are opting for a quieter life outside of Iraq. Al Qaeda continues to grow for the time being as it cannibalizes the other insurgent groups and absorbs their most radical and hardcore fringes into its fold. The Baathists, who had been critical in spurring the initial insurgency, are becoming less and less relevant, and are drifting without a clear purpose following the hanging of their idol, Saddam Hussein. Rounding out this changing landscape is that Al Qaeda itself is getting a serious beating as the Americans improve in intelligence gathering and partner with more reliable Iraqi forces.
Hooray. Huzzah! Yippee! We’ve turned another corner!
Greats news, if you can believe it. Except as much as I would like to, I don’t. Hilzoy, writing about the SOTU address the other day, nailed it:
It was, instead, a speech that might have impressed me if I had just beamed in from Jupiter. It was well-written and well-delivered. The beginning, about Nancy Pelosi, was quite gracious. Even the parts about earmark reform and energy policy might have impressed me if I didn’t know anything about Bush’s record on these issues.
The problem, of course, is that I do know about Bush’s record. Bush is in a situation in which no speech he can give can really do the job. He has lost the confidence of the American people. People don’t really trust him at all. He says that he has a plan to win the war; he has said that any number of times before. He says he’s concerned about energy independence; Jim Webb claims that this is the seventh time Bush has mentioned energy independence in a state of the union message, and while I haven’t gone back and checked, that sounds right.
When no one trusts you, more words will not alter that fact. You need to win their trust back, and no speech on earth can do that. You need action. And nothing I’ve seen from Bush to date suggests that he has the wisdom and leadership to get it right in Iraq, or the bare minimum of interest needed to do something good in domestic policy.
And such it is with Iraq, the surge supporters, and this administration. I would love to believe that we really are ‘winning’ or making progress, but there is ample evidence that we are not, and the word of the surge supporters and this administration is no good.
How many milestones have we passed? How many corners have we turned? How many insurgent #2’s have we killed (so many that the administration no longer refers them to the #2 man, but instead call them ‘top aides’)? How many times were we told that Padilla was the greatest threat to mankind, only to watch an administration now afraid to even try him without venue shopping. How many times were we told that extra-legal surveillance was absolutely necessary, only to learn last week it really isn’t. How many times were we told the abuses at Abu Gharaib and elsewhere was the work of a few bad apples, only to learn that torture is the policy of this administration. Hell, they even went farther and legalized it after they couldn’t deny it anymore. How many times have we been told everything is great in Iraq and that it is only the liberal media and biased statistics that are misleading us?
I would love for this article to be true. Hell, if it is, let’s declare victory and GTFO now. But simple common sense and the mountain of contrary evidence keeps me from believing we are close to the elusive and ill-defined victory we all want.
And oh, by the way. The author of that NY Sun piece is the former Director of Research for Chalabi’s Iraqi National Congress (Check under scholars for his bio). Yes. That Ahmed Chalabi.
TenguPhule
Oh good, I’m not the only one who’s feeling that Deja Vu all over again.
Can we stop looking for the pony and go home now?
Pb
Regarding not turning corners and that mountain of contrary evidence: Loss of single Helicopter is a disaster, from Daily Kos–let me know when (or if) that story hits the papers.
ThymeZone
NY Sun? Please.
BadTux
Unlike some of the folks on the left of Atilla the Hun, while I was against going into Iraq because we had Osama bin Forgotten to deal with (remember him? Attacked America and got away with it?), once the troops crossed the border I said “Well, there it is. We are now an Empire. Let’s hope they do it right.” The alternative — a failed state in the heart of the Middle East — could hardly be called in the national interest. Sadly, I was to be dissapointed, as time after time, Dear Leader and His minions seemed to go out of their way to do everything that would make the situation worse.
Personally, I believe that if someone besides the Bush Administration put together a credible plan for stabilizing Iraq that included getting sufficient manpower for pacification, arranging the logistics that said manpower would require, and paying for all this, the American people would support said plan regardless of the cost. I don’t think the 2006 election was a referendum on whether the American public wants a stabile Iraq in the heart of the Middle East. I think it was more a case of the American public deciding that, however nice the goal, the Bush Administration isn’t going to get us there so we might as well pull the troops out until someone with a clue is in office. But the Bush Administration could propose the perfect plan for a stabile Iraq tomorrow and nobody would believe it. The Busheviks have too much of a history of “last throes” and “victory is around the corner” statements (hint: throes that last for years aren’t “last” by any definition of the word, and if victory is around the corner yet *again*, Iraq is a friggin’ tesseract).
In short, what we have here is a failure to be credible. And the latest plan for “victory” — “surge” troops to the same level as a year ago and rely upon Iraqi troops who lack sufficient logistics support even with American assistance to have substantial operational capacity — doesn’t even pass the giggle test except with Dear Leader’s most rabid partisans, who parrot whatever they’re told to believe, even if it blatantly contradicts readily observable reality. The credibility gap just became larger. And the Busheviks don’t care, for some reason. I suppose Dear Leader says “I done been electorated, so I don’t have to care!”. Tell that to the dead kids coming back from Iraq…
Osama Von McIntyre
Mileground?
scarshapedstar
Hey! What about the time he stood on top of the ruins of the WTC and said…
… er, never mind.
Jackmormon
John, you screwed up the link to the article.
Jackmormon
Here’s the correct link.
scarshapedstar
Also,
Frankly, at this point, I’d prefer a defeat. By which I mean, if we somehow managed to delude ourselves that this senseless national self-amputation has even the tiniest silver lining, I’d jump off a highrise.
Paddy O'Shea
I wonder if Tehran will thank us for cleaning up the Iraqi Sunni problem. It will certainly make their eventual occupation a whole lot easier.
Dave
Shock and Awe [shok and aw] -adj. A description of the sensation I get when reading dribble like this.
Pooh
PONY, PONI, PONE has done it again…
Tsulagi
LOL!
Yeah, we all know how dead on accurate the ‘intelligence’ from Chalabi and his boys has proven. Followed by the vast benefits of its analysis by sharp minds like Last Throes Cheney and his merry band of warriors like Wolfy and Feith.
You know how you can tell these guys are beyond retarded? Even a retard after four years of constantly fucking things up would have the capacity to at least say “oops.”
Not our First Couple. One says “Gee, some scary guys didn’t like purple fingers one year so they made Iraq messy last year.” Then the day after his other half claims “enormous successes” thanks to their brilliance.
Yep, we need more loyalty pledges for stupidity, not fewer.
Jill
Knowing who the author of the NY Sun article is tells you all you need to know about the accuracy of the article.
Gatchaman
The average insurgent today feels demoralized, disillusioned, and hunted.
Um, I would imagine those are the sort of feelings that would drive someone into the lucrative and exciting career of insurgency.
Those who have not been captured yet are opting for a quieter life outside of Iraq.
Yes! And they will find that quieter life — as asylum seekers here*. Yippie, in 5 years we can fight them here AND over there. Way to go George!
Al Qaeda continues to grow for the time being as it cannibalizes the other insurgent groups and absorbs their most radical and hardcore fringes into its fold.
Mission accomplished?
*All those in favor of giving Iraqi refugees asylum in Red states only raise your hands.
TenguPhule
Fixed.
Paddy O'Shea
Given the fact that the supply of electricity in most Iraqi cities is intermittent at best, torture by power tools is probably a myth.
A bat with a nail through the end is much more likely.
chopper
i dunno, if thanks to frequent blackouts it takes em 3 hours to drill through your fingernail i’d call that pretty torturous.
“oh no! he’s got a board with a nail in it!”
TenguPhule
Portable generators. Kill on the go.
Sirkowski
Can we call Jeff Goldstein a talentless douchebag now?
Oregonian
I’d just love to know how the NY Sun is so well-informed about the inner feelings of the “average insurgent.”
Andrew
Why don’t we ever hear about the helicopters with 2 Colonels, 1 Lieutenant Colonel, 1 Major, 1 Captain, 2 Command Sergeant Majors, 1 First Sergeant, 1 Sergeant First Class, 2 Staff Sergeants, and 1 Corporal that weren’t shot down in Iraq?
McMartin
This is totally tangential, but a huge thank-you to Pooh for linking the source of the “pony” meme.
This leaves the source of the “pie” running gag as a mystery to me. (Yes, I’ve seen it used. It’s why pie specifically that remains mysterious.)
Paddy O'Shea
State of the Union corrected ..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwZSQrDuYzo
Andrew
Someone should preserve that Protein Wisdom thread for posterity. A future historian might need some concrete evidence for her thesis, “Right Wing Stupids: Why We Would Should Have Seen It Coming After The Canine Ass Fisting.”
The Other Steve
Nothing to see here.
Just the usual left wing moonbatty whining without any suggestions for success in Iraq.
Pooh
McMartin, about 4 months back, Tim and John got pissed at the commenters for being mean and nasty, so for a while Tim edited all personal attacks to read I Like Pie!.
Well Tim got bored with that (and the commentariat calmed down a bit), yet One Commenter Who Shall Not Be Named For He Is Darrell (oops), Destroyer of Blogs, couldn’t lay off the personal attacks, so Perry Como made a greasemonkey script which transform all of his posts into…you guessed it, “I Like Pie!”
The Other Steve
A Thesis?
I think there’s a twelve volume set in there.
Think of the college courses this material could fuel? Debates, discussions… entire seminar series on how not to let yourself be led by a moron.
The Other Steve
You know what is great about this site?
I can write snark without getting troll rated!
jake
Fixed.
Edi-Geek Note: Gods, what sort of brain damaged, fumble fingered monkey wrote this shit?! I want to smash his fucking hands with his CPU. [Deep breath] Or maybe I’ll just rig the “,” on his keyboard to deliver an electric shock. Lay, off, that, thing, will, ya?
OT: Check out the Conservative Pundit Hall of Fame in the side bar.
Mr. Spewitt, paging Mr. Spewitt. Glory awaits, sir.
Perry Como
Because pie is really, really tasty. Mmmmm, pie.
Gus
I love the turning the corner metaphor. Every new corner we turn just gets us deeper into the maze.
fwiffo
Why is that guy not in jail? This is a serious question.
Rudi
I am in great awe of Nibras Kazoo(Flintstones?) as a freedom fighter in the dangerous offices of the Hudson Institute. Why don’t we bring all our brave troops so that they can fight along the side of the Great Kazoo at Hudson. There is no need to fight on Haifa Street, the battle is at Hudson.
jake
From the Hudson Institute’s list of scholars:
Lewis Libby
Senior Advisor
Hudson Institute, Washington, D.C. Headquarters
Areas of Expertise
* Asia
* War on Terror
* P. Fitzgerald’s prosecutorial style
* Prison (Maybe)
Biographical Highlights
Lewis Libby is a senior advisor at Hudson Institute, focusing on issues relating to the War on Terror and the future of Asia. He also offers research guidance and advises the institute in strategic planning.
______
Too tired to snark it up.
Andrew
If one turns the corner fast enough, repeatedly, one can do great things.
srv
I say Hogwash!
And you all may want to see Dan Reihl’s drive by about Senator Webbs treason at Unqualified Offerings
McMartin
Thanks for the explanations.
Also, have we turned four corners yet? Surely that means we’ll be back where we started!
srv
What Pooh didn’t tell you:
1) one other than Senator Cornyn posts under an alias here.
2) you can’t say bad things about JeffG.
3) JC actually used to blog at RedState. Really!
4) we used to have a thing on Thurdays where everyone was nice to each other.
5) there used to be alot more wingnuts here, back when John thought he was still a Bush lover, but they’re all too embarrassed to post anymore, save one or two.
6) on some days 60% of the posters are actually one guy under different aliases, but he seems to have found a job again and doesn’t troll as much.
7) 50% of the arguments here are actually arranged at a secret list site by some mastermind at an underground base in Arizona. He’s variously known as ppGaz, Thymzone or Herb.
8) and sometimes, in a blue moon, the mastermind and a drunk lady from Dallas will get all freaky here, and we think it’s actually real.
srv
What Pooh didn’t tell you:
1) none other than Senator Cornyn posts under an alias here.
2) you can’t say bad things about JeffG.
3) JC actually used to blog at RedState. Really!
4) we used to have a thing on Thurdays where everyone was nice to each other.
5) there used to be alot more wingnuts here, back when John thought he was still a Bush lover, but they’re all too embarrassed to post anymore, save one or two.
6) on some days 60% of the posters are actually one guy under different aliases, but he seems to have found a job again and doesn’t troll as much.
7) 50% of the arguments here are actually arranged at a secret list site by some mastermind at an underground base in Arizona. This usually happens when John and Tim disappear and all of us have nothing else to do.
8) and sometimes, in a blue moon, the mastermind and a drunk lady from Dallas will get all freaky here, and we think it’s actually real.
carpeicthus
Are we allowed to say, with utmost respect, that JeffG is being an idiot *in this instance*? The dude’s trusting a propagandist over, well, reality.
stickler
Ah, well…
In this instance? As opposed to the dipshit’s previous couple of years of trusting propaganda?
Reality is a thing the “man” rarely allows to intrude on his verbose and contingent postmodern world-construct.
Sherard
If you don’t believe a Chalabi stooge, how about someone with ties to the boots on the ground in Iraq ?
Black Five on Iraq
John S.
Someone with “boots on the ground” that lovingly links to the very same NY Sun piece that John is deriding here.
You’re a piece of work, Sherard.
Davebo
OK
Sorry, I can’t trust any treasonous person with buddies who are a part of the insurgency.
He’s almost as bad as the Associated Press.
Pug
Why is that guy [Chalabi] not in jail? This is a serious question.
Serious answer: Dick Cheney
cleek
I love the turning the corner metaphor. Every new corner we turn just gets us deeper into the maze.
every time i hear that we’ve turned another corner, i think of this image.
cleek
my god, what delusional nonsense.
this week in Baghdad, via CNN:
…
that’s one week, one city, as reported by one news service, in two articles.
Paddy O'Shea
Tim Russert exposed as Dick Cheney’s bitch at Libby trial.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/25/AR2007012501951.html
Andrew
You mean, “Tim Russert shown to be Cheney’s bitch for the 379th time. In other news, sun sets in evening.”
ThymeZone
We turned a corner in Iraq, and it blew up and killed twenty people.
If I hear one more word of that “winning” crap I swear, I will pop a vein.
The Other Steve
Exihibit 9,999,999 of the insanity of the right… yes, that Dan Riehl.
Someone keep copies of these things for our upcoming book.
The Other Steve
Here’s George Bush…
The guy is seriously losing his mind.
Krista
I loved sglover’s comment on that thread…
Beautifully put.
Zifnab
I love the “appeal to invisible experts”. Most reasonable experts, much like most reasonable generals, and most reasonable tax-paying red-blooded American non-CommieLamoFacists, support the President whole-heartedly. Why are you liberals so unreasonable?
ChristieS
Yes, that’s it. Exactly.
Tsulagi
See, that’s the problem with you lefties. If someone realizes they’ve been handed a sack of shit, you put in another pretty wrapper. Problem solved. Sherard likes pretty wrappers.
That’s why no doubt he loves the president’s new plan for victory. It’s Stay the Course in a pretty surge wrapper. Concentrate on the wrapper, not the contents.
Bubblegum Tate
Wow. If you are seconding sglover’s comment, Krista, then I am thirding it.
jenniebee
Doubt it – http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13802919/#060718, scroll down to July 18, 2006, for a report from LTC Bateman, which begins:
The Other Steve
To be fair…
The Democrats are equally befuddled… arguing that without government aid the Iraqis will stand up and help themselves. Yet they want to increase welfare programs back in the states.
But it is a fascinating thing to watch.
Jake
In other non-news: Bush is still the decider.
Does he know his “Oh yeah? Let’s hear your idea wise guy!” approach to opposition is both illogical and childish? Or is he too illogical and childish to realize what a goober he sounds?
les
othersteve, can you spare some of what you’re one? I’m having trouble maintaining my hallucination level lately…
tBone
Yes. [/SATSQ]
Zifnab
Ok, so let’s be fair here. I don’t think anyone is under the illusion that when US Soldiers withdraw from Bagdad, the streets will be littered with roses and Sunni and Shia will embrace each other in the streets.
However, I don’t think anyone (sane) is under the illusion that adding more troops will make the roses and the hugging closer to reality.
And I’m sure Democrats would be happy to extend social programs to the Iraqis with US taxpayer dollars, but some in our government think we should be spending that US taxpayer money on US citizens. Crazy, I know.
Zifnab
Bastion of civil discourse, he.
Faux News
I’m waiting for the NY Sun to report that “chocolate rations have been INCREASED to 20gm per week” and that “spontaneous demonstrations have broken out throughout
Oceaniathe USA to thank GWB for our new happy life”.James F. Elliott
Spencer Ackerman might have something of interest for you, John.
TenguPhule
Shorter The Other Steve: I love poor Iraqis. I hate poor Americans.
Grrr
In a conversation the other day and I jokingly equated GWB to Chance the Gardener in regards to how this asshat got elected, not once, but twice.
As it turns out, there is a scholarly dissertation on that very notion:
And so on.
Newport 9
Magic 8-Ball:
REPLY HAZY, ASK AGAIN LATER.
TenguPhule
The Other Steve,
You got me, spoofer. Stop sounding so much like the real thing.
John Spragge
I posted my comment on this article at some length here. Shorter version: if any insurgent, indeed if anyone has got tired of killing people, great. I hope this time the article has it right. If you think that necessarily brings you any closer to the establishment of a liberal democracy in Iraq, the one that George Bush’s supporters cite when they want to justify the Iraq adventure, then you’ve ignored a lot of history.
Richard 23
Mark Noonan, finally discovers the NY Sun article and predictably gets it right as usual, in his brilliant post entitled, Bad News for the Democrats: We’re Winning in Iraq.
YEAH!
And get this, defeatocrats, “…one thing they don’t need is for the surge to be quickly followed by a secure Baghdad…that would be impossible to attribute to anything other than Bush’s steadfast leadership.”
OH HELL YEAH!
We’re winning in Iraq, and that’s the greatest fear of the bedwetting leftist wackjobs and their RINO collaberators and the traitorous LLL MSM.
Mark Noonan, visionary, Blogs for Bush.
BadTux
Thought I’d just repeat Da Fixer’s injunction for those two or three of you who still worship Dear Leader from the safety of your momma’s basement:
Lose the Cheetos and finish the keg, lardass. Off momma’s couch, drop the game controller, and head down to the recruiter’s office. Move it! Move it!
I know a whole buncha guys who still have “W-’04” stickers on their F-150s and Tahoes who are young and able-bodied enough to help our guys out. You know who you are, the ones who go around saying we should ‘kill all the ragheads’. The guys with the good union jobs who wouldn’t give that up for $25-grand a year and a tent in the desert, though they can talk tough over a six-pack at lunch.
Talk is cheap. Our Army and Marine Corps are at the breaking point. ‘Supporting’ the troops with a yellow ribbon on your pickup just won’t cut it anymore. At this point, put up or shut up.
And for all you wingnut bloggers who are ‘fighting the war of ideas online’, the Chimp’s gonna do what he’s gonna do and he doesn’t need cheerleaders anymore – no one’s listening to you anyway, nobody believes your horseshit anymore. Time for you to trade keyboard for rifle. We need sharpshooters more than bullshitters.
If you support this war and you’re not prepared to go and ‘kill some ragheads’, shut the fuck up and let us figure out a way to end it, you spineless turds.
What he said, except more politely since, unlike him, I ain’t some ex-Special-Forces type with the street cred to spout off like that :-).
– Badtux the Admiring Penguin