David Brooks takes a look around and see that things are looking up for America:
The decline in domestic violence is of a piece with the decline in violent crime over all. Violent crime over all is down by 55 percent since 1993 and violence by teenagers has dropped an astonishing 71 percent, according to the Department of Justice.
The number of drunken driving fatalities has declined by 38 percent since 1982, according to the Department of Transportation, even though the number of vehicle miles traveled is up 81 percent. The total consumption of hard liquor by Americans over that time has declined by over 30 percent.
Teenage pregnancy has declined by 28 percent since its peak in 1990. Teenage births are down significantly and, according to the Alan Guttmacher Institute, the number of abortions performed in the country has also been declining since the early 1990’s.
Fewer children are living in poverty, even allowing for an uptick during the last recession. There’s even evidence that divorce rates are declining, albeit at a much more gradual pace. People with college degrees are seeing a sharp decline in divorce, especially if they were born after 1955.
I could go on. Teenage suicide is down. Elementary school test scores are rising (a sign than more kids are living in homes conducive to learning). Teenagers are losing their virginity later in life and having fewer sex partners. In short, many of the indicators of social breakdown, which shot upward in the late 1960’s and 1970’s, and which plateaued at high levels in the 1980’s, have been declining since the early 1990’s.
I predict an immediate uptick in rhetorical violence, as political apparatchiks on both sides of the political aisle attempt to claim credit for these events.
demimondian
Brooks is in a tough spot. He knows that there’s a really good explanation of the “moral rebound” of America, but it’s one that nobody wants to mention.
Roe v. Wade
Steve Levitt’s paper has stood up to every criticism anyone can throw at it, but nobody wants to ackowledge one simple thing: a parents of an unwanted child are not likely to be good parents. The parents of a wanted child are likely to be good parents. That would mean that legalized abortion was a good thing for the society, wouldn’t it?
Bob
Access to abortion.
DougJ
BS, demimondian. Crime is down because of the resurgence of faith. Is it any coincidence that historically, periods of secularim have led to increases in crime? Crime was very low during the Middle Ages, then spiked during the so-called Age of Enlightenment. During the more spiritual period of the 19th century, crime was down again, only to rise when flapper morality, as it was called, took root in the 1920s. And we all know what has happened since WWII.
Bob
DougJ, one thing you pointed out, the rise of crime in the 20s (“flapper morality”) actually brushes on something, but you, of course, miss the point. The crime also rises when more things are made criminal. Drinking alcohol was made a crime by righteous fools. Just think of what America’s crime rate would be today if they had a logical drug policy.
Demdude
How do you know what the crime rate was during the Middle Ages? What statistics are you looking at?
Didn’t the crime rate in the 20’s have lot to do with Prohibition?
demimondian
Which DougJ is this? Bass-fishing DougJ, or SeriousButConfused DougJ? For now, I’m going to assume that latter, but, if I’m wrong, please tell me. I have some shaving hints saved up.
Levitt is a really careful scientist. You should read the QJE paper — he and his coauthor cover that. In broad outline, though, the period after the sixties have seen a steady decline in faith across the society as a whole, yet crime has fallen steadily since the sixties. If fatih had anything to do with this, one would expect that communities of faith would have a different pattern of crime and violence. They don’t.
Bruce from Missouri
There’s nothing new about those numbers… Every year some columnist discovers that crime has been going down for the last quite a few years. If people would stop watching Nancy Grace and people like her, they would realize that we are safer than we have been for decades.
And to be totally partisan for a second…. It appears to me that all this started when Clinton was elected…hmmmm.
Bruce
ppGaz
Yes, agree, but it’s only a partial explanation.
Yet, statistically speaking, it’s there, and it’s rather obvious.
ppGaz
Bzzzt! Penalty box.
Just the other day you said that crime and teen pregnancy were up …. because of liberalism. Did you not? Several of us asked you to cite a source, did we not? You did not provide any source, did you?
Doug, even if you are well-intentioned, you are going to have to do better than this.
Produce ANY EVIDENCE that your assertion (today’s version) is supported by evidence or data.
Pan Pan anon...
Maybe Americans have simply become too fat and lazy to kill themselves or their spouses. ;-)
Rome Again
That’s CLASSIC! ::ROTFLMFAO:: Where did you get that information from?
Rome Again
Yup, ppGaz, I remember seeing that. Of course, if DougJ says it, it MUST be true. About as true as many teenaged children of evangelical parents meaning it when they sign a pledge of abstinence. LOL, DougJ probably thinks these teenagers really are at the library studying since they told their parents thats where they would be.
ppGaz
Doug is at the library now, researching his reply.
Mike
“Yup, ppGaz, I remember seeing that. Of course, if DougJ says it, it MUST be true. About as true as many teenaged children of evangelical parents meaning it when they sign a pledge of abstinence. LOL, DougJ probably thinks these teenagers really are at the library studying since they told their parents thats where they would be.”
Where did you get that information from?
Rome Again
There are several sources on this, but here’s just one (portions of the article below)
The Washington Post – Teen Pledges Barely Cut STD Rates, Study Says
[All emphasis mine]
Do a Google search on “Abstintence Pledge does not work” and you’ll find more.
Rome Again
By the way, if you haven’t figured it out, the fact that these teenagers are still getting STD’s means they’re still having sex.
ppGaz
Like we did when we were teenagers?
Of course, the partners came later. Ahem.