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More Banking System Incompetence

By April 2nd, 2012

Payment processor Global Payments has been hacked and data about 1.5 million credit cards has apparently been released, including the “Track 1 and Track 2” data needed to re-create the magnetic stripe on a credit card. The goal of the hack was probably to get enough information to clone those cards so they can be used for fraudulent transactions.

Visa has dropped Global Payments from its registry of providers who meet security standards, which means nothing since Global Payments will still be processing Visa transactions. Since the credit card companies have to eat fraudulent transactions, this will be a lot of hassle for them and for affected card users, but hopefully nobody but the banks will pay directly for fraud (though we’ll all pay indirectly, of course).

I wonder if the media freakout will mention a couple of facts about the payment system. First, we’re way behind Europe in the use of smartcards, which are much harder to clone than the 60’s-era mag stripes on US cards. Second, the use of your cell phone as a means for payment has been working for almost a year in the form of Google Wallet, but that hasn’t been rolled out officially anywhere but on the Sprint network, because the rest of the cell carriers have grouped together to create their own standard to allow them to take a cut of transactions made using your cell phone.

I have Google Wallet on my non-Sprint Galaxy Nexus (officially unsupported and installed via a work-around) and it’s fun because the sales clerks treat me like Dumbledore every time I use it. Besides that, it has the potential to be more secure because I have to enter a PIN on my phone before any payment can be made. I’m sure everybody will have it in five years after the free market of a few huge cell providers, phone makers and banks all decide how we’ll all be charged more for the privilege of a secure payment system.

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The Base Got the Message

By March 30th, 2012

If you are wondering why the Republican base is screaming about science and mocking global warming and thinks Jesus rode a dinosaur, it is because that is what the GOP elites want them to believe:

This is not because conservatives are a bunch of undereducated yahoos. In fact, quite the opposite:

    Conservatives with high school degrees, bachelor’s degrees, and graduate degrees all experienced greater distrust in science over time….In addition…conservatives with college degrees decline more quickly than those with only a high school degree []. These results are quite profound, because they imply that conservative discontent with science was not attributable to the uneducated but to rising distrust among educated conservatives.

In other words, this decline in trust in science has been led by the most educated, most engaged segment of conservatism. Conservative elites have led the anti-science charge and the rank-and-file has followed.

Just another arrow in the quiver for the next time you hear a “reasonable” Republican lament the behavior of the party. None of this was an accident.

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I Blame Gore

By March 29th, 2012

This is going to be a disaster if it keeps frosting like this:

When you were basking in record warmth last week, farmers were worried. They knew the abnormal weather was making some plants vulnerable when seasonable weather returned.

On Monday night, their fears were realized.

“It got down to 21 degrees in some spots. On apples, we could have lost as much as 10 percent,” said Chip Hardy, owner of Brookdale Fruit Farm in Hollis. “If it had gotten down to 15, we could have lost 90 percent, so we were lucky it didn’t get that cold.”

The problem is that trees and bushes were fooled by a stretch of 80-degree days last week, producing their flowers roughly a month earlier than usual, leaving frost-sensitive buds exposed.

Fruiting plants from apple and peach trees to blueberry bushes and grape vines are vulnerable, as are some decorative plants such as magnolia trees.

“I’m also worried about your hardwood trees that have started to grow buds,” said George Hamilton, UNH Cooperative Extension educator. “I don’t know what the critical temperature is that kills those new growths.”

That was a couple days ago in NH, but the same thing is playing out right now where I live. We’re supposed to get down into the 30-32 range here tonight, and everything has bloomed- all the fruit trees, etc. Could be a real disaster, and will lead to serious, serious economic pain for farmers and then, of course, consumers. I was actually considering putting in some plants the other day, but I guess I will just start getting everything into flower boxes in the basement under grow lights and controlled temp until the middle of April.

We also had so little snow that I wonder about the impact on the water table and whether or not we are going to have an unseasonably wet or dry summer. Neither is good news.

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My get up and go must have got up and went

By March 28th, 2012

A January 2012 commentary in the scientific journal Nature, which I missed at the time, argued that global oil production reached a stable-ish plateau around 2005. The general theory of peak oil (which is more or less inescapable unless some process can make oil other than geology) holds that we can stay at or around that plateau as long as we want to pay more and more to extract each subsequent barrel. Meanwhile oil prices will tether global economic growth to the ground by pulling us back to depression whenever economic expansion starts to create a demand for oil that supply can’t meet.

Then something happens when the economic drag cannot support the extreme efforts needed to get at the really tough crude in deep sediments and refractory tar sands. What happens, I don’t know. Klaatu berada nikto?

***Update***

It appears the article is paywalled, so here is a fair use excerpt:

From 2005 onwards, conventional crude-oil production has not risen to match increasing demand. We argue that the oil market has tipped into a new state, similar to a phase transition in physics: production is now ‘inelastic’, unable to respond to rising demand, and this is leading to wild price swings. Other fossil-fuel resources don’t seem capable of making up the difference.

[...]Production of crude oil increased along with demand from 1988 to 2005. But then something changed. Production has been roughly constant for the past seven years, despite an increase in price of around 15% per year2 (at Brent crude (London) prices) from about US$15 per barrel in 1998 to more than $140 per barrel in 2008 (see ‘Oil production hits a ceiling’). The price still reflects demand: it declined to about $35 per barrel in 2009 thanks to the 2008–09 recession, and recovered along with the upturn in the global economy to $120 per barrel before declining to its value today of $111. But the supply chain has been unable to keep pace with rising demand and prices.

[...]We are not running out of oil, but we are running out of oil that can be produced easily and cheaply. The US Energy Information Administration optimistically projects a 30% increase in oil production between now and 2030 (ref. 2). All of that increase is in the form of unidentified projects — in other words, oil yet to be discovered. Even if production at existing fields miraculously stopped declining, such an increase would require 22 million barrels per day of new oil production by 2030. If realistic declines of 5% per year continue, we would need new fields yielding more than 64 million barrels per day — roughly equivalent to today’s total production. In our view, this is very unlikely to happen.

[...S]everal recent studies suggest that available coal is less abundant than has been assumed. US coal production peaked in 2002, and world coal-energy production is projected to peak as early as 2025 (ref. 8). Whenever coal-reserve figures are updated, the estimates are usually revised downwards: estimates of world reserves (79% of which are held in the United States, Russia, India, China, Australia and South Africa) were decreased by more than 50% in 2005, to 861 gigatonnes.

[...]Of the 11 recessions in the United States since the Second World War, 10, including the most recent, were preceded by a spike in oil prices13. It seems clear that it wasn’t just the ‘credit crunch’ that triggered the 2008 recession, but the rarely-talked-about ‘oil-price crunch’ as well. High energy prices erode family budgets and act as a head wind against economic recovery.

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Saturday Morning Open Thread

By March 24th, 2012

First, my opinion as a certified cranky Old Person: Anyone willing to get a tattoo so they’ll never miss an incoming phone message... is not mature enough to consent to body modification.

Second, it looks like those of us here at Balloon Juice may be wasting all our time on the wrong social media site:

James Erwin, 37, works for a financial services firm in Des Moines, Iowa, writing software manuals. He’s been doing that for a couple of years, and he enjoys it. It’s a pretty low-stress job for a person with a methodical turn of mind—good pay, short commute. He’s home by 5:30 every night to spend time with his wife and 1-year-old son.

One Wednesday last August, Erwin rose from his desk around noon. He walked to the company lunchroom, microwaved a pretzel-bread Hot Pocket, and carried it back to his desk on a paper towel. He took a bite of the Hot Pocket and logged in to Reddit.com…

It’s common for random questions to appear on Reddit’s front page, like “Is there a magnet capable of pulling the iron out of your body?” or “What is the most awkward thing you could say to a cashier while purchasing condoms?” That day, as Erwin scanned Reddit, a question caught his eye. It was posed by someone calling themselves The_Quiet_Earth: “Could I destroy the entire Roman Empire during the reign of Augustus if I traveled back in time with a modern U.S. Marine infantry battalion or MEU [Marine Expeditionary Unit]?” Erwin clicked on the question and a lively comment thread unfurled. Hundreds of people were whipping hypotheticals back and forth, gaming out the implications of a marines-versus-Romans smackdown. What’s the range of a Roman spear? How would the Romans react to a helicopter? What would happen when the Americans ran out of bullets?

Erwin, who studied history at the University of Iowa, had been posting on Reddit for about five months. He used the alias Prufrock451, a dual reference to the schlubby protagonist of a T. S. Eliot poem and the Ray Bradbury novel Fahrenheit 451. Prufrock451′s contributions were all over the map. One day he wrote about the historical roots of the civil war in Liberia; another day he told a funny story about a shooting range in Iowa. He also uploaded a few pictures of European forts that he thought looked cool and a quote by Voltaire. In his atypicalness—Prufrock451 was pretty clearly a quirky character—he was entirely typical of a habitual Reddit user, and like many other redditors, as they are called, he found the site addictive. More than just a creative outlet or time-killer, Reddit was a game. The object was to amass points—”Reddit karma.” Every time Erwin saw his karma level increase, he felt a little squirt of adrenaline. “People are sweating to make you laugh or make you think or make you hate them,” Erwin says. “It’s the human condition, plus points.”

Now, in response to The_Quiet_Earth’s question about time-traveling marines, Erwin started typing. He posted his answer in a series of comments in the thread. Within an hour, he was an online celebrity. Within three hours, a film producer had reached out to him. Within two weeks, he was offered a deal to write a movie based on his Reddit comments. Within two months, he had taken a leave from his job to become a full-time Hollywood screenwriter….

(via)

Apart from all that, what real-world issues & applications are on the agenda for the start of the weekend?

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By request, a profound ideas thread

By March 20th, 2012

Rationalists and professional scientific thinkers have long since dismissed the principle of vitalism, which proposes that a force animates living things that cannot be explained by current physical law. Many historians trace the concept of vitalism to Aristotle, but I would suggest that the instinct to give a vital force and conscious motives to entities like harvest crops, prominent geographical features and the weather is as old as religion, which is to say as hold as the human race (if not older).

Aristotle proposed that a non-reducible ‘spirit’ separates the inanimate from animate life. More recently, through two world wars the developmental biologist Hans Driesch found that you could isolate a single cell from the first few divisions of a fertilized sea urchin egg and the cell would still make a functional embryo, though a smaller one. Driesch decided that he had evidence that life develops certain profound rules that are distinct from its immediate physical environment. The embryos followed a vitalistic impulse if you will.

Having continued Driesch’s line of inquiry for the better part of a century, we now know that his embryonic urchin follows the guidance of pathways with various exotic and not-so-exotic titles: hedgehog, notch, wnt and MAP kinase collaborate, compete and feed back on one another to tell each cell whether, how and where to divide.

It took a long time but at last we delineated the embryo’s pathways. We scaled the peak, we named it, we planted a flag and some of the more significant people won a Nobel for it. That means we have conquered the superstitious vitalistic impulse and replaced it with something rational. Right?

Don’t count on it. More than that, it might not be a bad thing. Let me put it this way: the other day I got my reviews back for a paper that I submitted to one of the top three or four journals in the world. My lab and five or six others have already reported results consistent with this paper, but the two reviewers refused to believe that any such thing is possible. It violates what we already know are universal rules about how (this bit of) life works!

In the world where rationalistic explanations have won for good, they would be right. Impossible ideas that contradict known rules must be crazy and wrong. However. Ask a leading expert in any field and you will hear the same thing: we only barely understand how much we do not know. Every aspect of life is still ruled by invisible, inchoate forces. The ones we understand have underlying causes that we do not even know we do not understand yet. In fact, to put a finer point on it, just about every leading expert made his or her name by proving that the fixed rules that previously governed the rational world were either wrong or incomplete.

In a sense, then, I think that vitalism is not dead or even quiet. It sits on the shoulder of people like me who try to make sense of the world. Once in a while, often in the form of results that don’t make any sense but stubbornly refuse to change when we repeat them, it gives a gentle prod that we don’t understand everything and to some degree we never will. The noumenous might not be tangible but it is real.

***Update***

Let me put it a different way: It is hardly controversial to say that inchoate or semi-choate forces animate life, the universe and everything. It just means that, as GLaDOS put it, there’s still science to do. The noumenous forces that Driesch proposed have names now, yes, but each of those has its own poorly (or mis-) understood animating force. Judging by history (and the pages of any given high-impact journal) even a good bit of the territory we already mapped is either incomplete or wrong. In that sense we need vitalism precisely because it is illogical; it is an intellectual memento mori that gently prods us to keep a grain of humility in the midst of triumph*.

Hard religion, hard anti-religion and inflexible rationalism therefore all make the same mistake. It makes no more sense to say out of the blue that you know every answer to the ineffable than to say that you know that the answers are wrong (which is just another way of saying that you know the answers). You need to give each possible model a fair weight and build a watertight argument that convincingly rules out every other explanation, all while understanding that despite your best efforts you could still be wrong. That, in a nutshell, is science.

(*) I do not say that lightly; my last three papers came out in either a Nature journal or PNAS. It really is not that big a deal if I have to shop around the current one a bit more. And who knows, it might be wrong.

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Fly Like an Eagle

By March 20th, 2012

This is amazing:

Take that, Icarus.

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Give Google My Number

By March 15th, 2012

Apparently this past week was a good one for Dear John letters to your former employers, because James Whittaker, who left Google for Microsoft, has posted his take on why he left. Read it yourself, but as far as I can tell, his argument is basically that Google shouldn’t have thrown so many resources into Google+, and that the trend of gathering more information about users via their social networking leads to overly invasive ads.

I think he’s right that Google+ is pretty obviously a fizzle so far, and it’s doubtful that it will succeed simply because there’s just limited market space for social networking in general, since each social network requires a huge number of people to participate in order to be worthwhile. That said, I think Google had to give some kind of integrated social networking a shot, since they already had millions of users with Google accounts and sites like YouTube, Picasa and Reader that all had some kind of stand-alone social networking component.

But what I see in Google isn’t too much Google+ or too many ads (those are always going to be with us if we’re going to get free services from any provider), but rather a lack of innovation. Google’s list of great products includes search, Gmail, Maps, Chrome and Android. Lately, there’s not only Google+, but Google Music, Video and Books (which have been bundled together under the name “Google Play”). Google+ has a bit of innovation with hangouts and circles, but Play is strictly a me-too offering, and it’s tanking just like Google+.

When I started to use Google search, I was amazed at how good it was compared to the other alternatives. Gmail was so much better than any other web-based email at its time of introduction that having an invite was a big deal. Maps was remarkably better than the competition at the time (and still is), Chrome was the best browser on the day it was launched, and even with its fragmentation, Android’s integration with Google Mail, Calendar and its maps and navigation are standouts. The same can’t be said of Google’s latest product offerings, yet they seem to be devoting a huge amount of time and energy to developing and promoting them.

The deai with being a Googlebot has always been that you tolerate the ads in return for using incredibly good products for free. Whittaker seems to think that ads are the deal-breaker, but for me, the deal-breaker will be spending the time of one of the best engineering teams on earth grinding out me-too copies of Amazon, iTunes or Facebook.

(h/t reader MW)

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I Blame Gore

By March 14th, 2012

I find this stuff to be horrifying:

About 3.7 million Americans live within a few feet of high tide and risk being hit by more frequent coastal flooding in coming decades because of the sea level rise caused by global warming, according to new research.

If the pace of the rise accelerates as much as expected, researchers found, coastal flooding at levels that were once exceedingly rare could become an every-few-years occurrence by the middle of this century.

By far the most vulnerable state is Florida, the new analysis found, with roughly half of the nation’s at-risk population living near the coast on the porous, low-lying limestone shelf that constitutes much of that state. But Louisiana, California, New York and New Jersey are also particularly vulnerable, researchers found, and virtually the entire American coastline is at some degree of risk.

“Sea level rise is like an invisible tsunami, building force while we do almost nothing,” said Benjamin H. Strauss, an author, with other scientists, of two new papers outlining the research. “We have a closing window of time to prevent the worst by preparing for higher seas.”

It might only be 3.7 million here, but globally, so much of Asia is clustered around low elevation areas that it is inevitable that there will be horrific disasters.

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Weird Science

By March 13th, 2012

Hrmm:

Movies and television shows are full of scenes where a man tries unsuccessfully to interact with a pretty woman. In many cases, the potential suitor ends up acting foolishly despite his best attempts to impress. It seems like his brain isn’t working quite properly and according to new findings, it may not be.

Researchers have begun to explore the cognitive impairment that men experience before and after interacting with women. A 2009 study demonstrated that after a short interaction with an attractive woman, men experienced a decline in mental performance. A more recent study suggests that this cognitive impairment takes hold even w hen men simply anticipate interacting with a woman who they know very little about.

What do you all think?

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Why is This Such a Bad Thing

By March 12th, 2012

Maybe I am wrong, but this seems like a pretty good idea:

An “experiment” which involved using homeless people as mobile wi-fi hotspots has attracted criticism, forcing the advertising agency behind it to defend itself.

A division of Bartle Bogle Hegarty (BBH) equipped 13 homeless people with 4G mifi devices in Austin, Texas.

It suggested the public pay $2 (£1.30) for 15 minutes access to the net.

Comments posted to the BBH’s site accused the project of being “unseemly” and “wrong”.

Members of Twitter asked “what has this world come to?” and accused the project of being a “gimmick”.

However, others praised the idea as being “inspirational” and a chance to create a “positive interaction between the public” and homeless people.

How is paying someone to distribute wifi access any different than paying someone to work in your food stand at SXSW for a week? I don’t see anything unseemly or wrong about it at all- they are providing a service and making some money, and I fail to see how it is different from a vendor selling t-shirts or bottled water.

And the fact that they are using homeless people seems to be better than what normally happens any time a big conference comes to a big city, which is basically they are cleared off the streets and penned up out of sight and out of mind. Again, maybe I’m wrong, but I just don’t get what is so awful about this.

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Cosmic Coolth

By March 12th, 2012

Because hominids cannot live by snark (or rage) alone, let’s have a moment of science sweetness, courtesy of the American Museum of Natural History’s Neil deGrasse Tyson:

And, he said, shuffling his feet just a little, if you want a more detailed account of what Neil’s talking about here, you can watch an hour long NOVA special produced, directed and written by (ahem!) your humble blogger.  In the program Origins: Back to the Beginning Neil leads us through from what was in essence  the discovery of the Big Bang to the evolution of cosmic habitats that could support the kind of life we know exists at least one place in the universe.

I particularly enjoyed making the section that talks about the cooking of the periodic table in the hearts of stars—you can find it in the Youtube excerpt below.  

What gave me pleasure in the sequence that included that scene is its juxtaposition of a (very distant) homage to one of my favorite movies (Searching for Bobby Fisher) with a quick lesson (in the next scene after this cut ends) from one of New York’s best chefs, the Union Square Cafe’s Michael Romano, who teaches Neil how to prepare a galactic bouillabaisse.You can check  that out, along with the rest of the film  at the PBS website. (The soup bit starts at around minute 41.)

Oh, and by the way:  Open Thread.

PS: Tim F. Not dead yet!

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Hog Wild

By March 3rd, 2012

There’s a new Apple TV coming, and, as Atrios points out, the tech press is wrapped up in whether Apple will “kill” the competition, without wondering how cable companies are going to react. Comcast already has a cap, and Time-Warner is flirting with different usage billing strategies. If Apple TV causes more people to switch from cable to the Internet as the pipe for their entertainment, I expect we’ll hear more about bandwidth “hogs” even though Internet bandwidth is getting cheaper every year. For the cable ISP monopolies, you’re only a “hog” when you use your bandwidth to watch TV.

As usual with the tech press, Apple gets a lot of attention, but an excellent new Apple TV (the current little box is by all accounts mediocre) will only accelerate the inevitable. I bought a Roku on impulse a couple of months ago, for something like $50. Like Apple TV, it’s a tiny little box that lets you stream different services, mostly Netflix, on your TV. Since then, there’s been very little traditional TV watching in my household. We already had Netflix, but the Roku Netflix app is just a little better that the Wii we were using, plus it’s hi def. Since we don’t watch a lot of sports, our TV service is now vestigial, and we’ll probably trash it soon. I can’t believe that the cable company will take that loss of $70/month in recurring revenue lying down, so I’m expecting to be labeled a hog in the near future.

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Late Night Open Thread: Can We Blame Astrid Farnsworth?

By March 3rd, 2012

Thirteen times, sheeple!

(Reuters) – NASA said hackers broke into its computer systems 13 times last year, stealing employee credentials and gaining access to mission-critical projects in breaches that could compromise U.S. national security…

He said they gained full system access, which allowed them to modify, copy, or delete sensitive files, create user accounts for mission-critical JPL systems and upload hacking tools to steal user credentials and compromise other NASA systems. They were also able to modify system logs to conceal their actions, he said…

(via)

Perhaps the Vatican would be willing to share some anti-hacking techniques, or at least recommend some competent consultants…

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Smoke Gets In My Eyes

By February 29th, 2012

Red states and industrial lobbyists are getting their trial against the EPA underway, and their attack on the government is of course THE SCIENCE ISN’T SETTLED!

Heavy industry groups and states argued in a federal court on Tuesday that U.S. environmental regulators had used faulty science in determining that greenhouse gas emissions endangered human health in the latest attempt to dismantle the Obama administration’s rules on the emissions.

During the first of two days of arguments on a case that seeks to overturn Environmental Protection Agency regulations, Harry MacDougald, a lawyer for the petitioners, said uncertain evidence was used to reach “90 percent” certainty that human emissions are responsible for harmful climate change.


Too bad the judges aren’t buying it.
The three judges hearing the case appeared to resist deciding on whether the EPA’s science was sufficient, with U.S. Circuit Judge David Tatel pointing out the agency had found the science certain enough.

“To win here, you have to make an argument that EPA’s decision is actually arbitrary and capricious,” Tatel said.


But it doesn’t matter, of course. No matter what the decision here, the case will be decided by SCOTUS eventually and given the fact that in practically every major business law case before the Roberts court that the court has sided with big business, I don’t see anything being different here. At the very least they stall until a new President comes in and tells the EPA to go suck on a smokestack and the regs are dropped. That’s certainly what business wants to see happen, and you can bet these same lobbies are giving heavily to see President Obama defeated.

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