According to these folk:
On the Friday before the sixth anniversary of 9/11, Osama bin Laden appeared in a new video, his first since prior to the U.S. presidential elections in 2004. In analyzing the video, Neal Krawetz of Hactor Factor, an expert on digital image forensics, said in his latest blogs that the video contained many visual and audio splices, and that all of the modifications were of very low quality.
Most striking is bin Laden’s beard, which has been gray in recent images. For this video it is black. “As far as my tools can detect, there has been no image manipulation of the bin Laden portion of the image beyond contrast adjustment. His beard really does appear to be that color.” The Washington Post has the full video here.
Krawetz says the inner frame of bin Laden was resaved at least twice, and not at the same time. The images show fine horizontal stripes on bin Laden and a background indicating these came from interlaced video sources. In contrast, the text elements, such as the As-Sahab logo, appear to be from non-interlaced sources.
The September 7 video shows bin Laden dressed in a white hat, white shirt and yellow sweater. Krawetz notes “this is the same clothing he wore in the 2004-10-29 video. In 2004 he had it unzipped, but in 2007 he zipped up the bottom half. Besides the clothing, it appears to be the same background, same lighting, and same desk. Even the camera angle is almost identical.” Krawetz also notes that “if you overlay the 2007 video with the 2004 video, his face has not changed in three years–only his beard is darker and the contrast on the picture has been adjusted.”
Two interesting things with this development. Will the fact free right wing blogosphere take back all the stupid remarks about Democrats writing the Bin Laden speech? And will we stop listening to these yahoos, who are so unscrupulous they will cite bin fucking Laden if they think it helps them politically?
Elvis Elvisberg
Hmm… what would Atrios have to say about this?
Punchy
I’m confused. What’s the insinuation–that the GOP made this full of RW talking points to slam the Dems, or that AQ made this to trick us into believing OBL is still alive?
mrmobi
Ok, I’ll bite. Conspiracy theory time.
Very convenient for this video to appear just before the Petraeus roll-out, huh? Like the timing of so many foiled “terrorist plots” which seem to conveniently happen just before important political events.
Reminds me of the letter that was the basis for the Niger/Yellowcake claim by Bush. Fabricated, but by whom?
Since I’m on the conspiracy train, anyone else here think it’s just plain ludicrous that no one was apprehended for the Antrax attacks after 9/11? The best crime lab on the planet, after determining that a US facility made the damn stuff, can’t figure out who got the material out of the lab? Sounds like incompetence, or worse, to me.
Remind you of anyone?
KCinDC
Mrmobi, if bin Laden is still alive, I’m not at all surprised that he would release videos at times that are convenient for the Bush administration. Bush has been a great PR agent for al Qaeda (causing every little band of Islamic terrorists to take on the al Qaeda brand name), his foreign policy has been wonderful for al Qaeda recruitment, and he’s been destroying the United States’ reputation, military, and treasury. So bin Laden has every reason to want Bush to continue what he’s doing, just as Bush benefits politically from bin Laden’s continued ability to keep Americans scared.
I’m not saying Bush and bin Laden are actually working together, just that they have a synbiotic relationship because of the way their politics work.
Jake
This proves bin Laden is dead! Mission Accomplished! Time to move the remaining US forces living it up in the gentle climes of Afghanistan to the great big beach in Ira[q][n] (take your pick) and give Mushraf a Medal of Freedom (TM)!
No. SA2SQ 3,005
Hear and deride Does not = Listen.
mrmobi
More conspiracy train, from the link in John’s post:
So you’ve got to ask yourself, if Bin Laden is dead, wouldn’t devout Muslims be busily making him into a martyr? If he is dead, what corrupt, amoral government benefits most from the use of his image to frighten the weak-minded? Could it be the government trying to gin up a war with Iran?
Thus concludes the conspiracy train (I’m starting to have JFK flashbacks).
demimondian
In addition, KCinDC, the organization or organizations the bin Laden founded would have every reason to continue releasing “Hari Seldon” style images of bin Laden at politically significant times here in the US — and even more so if there’s reason to wonder if he’s alive.
demimondian
Not necessarily. There’s a lot of political value for the second tier of leaders in presenting images of bin Laden — it keeps them from being individually targeted, and reinforces his image as “the man the Americans couldn’t catch”. Invulnerability is more useful than martyrdom.
Also, the video could be faked without him being dead. He is alleged to have serious kidney problems, which will not have been aided by his years on the run. If so, he may well be incapacitated — which Al Qaeda absolutely would never want known.
Pb
Yeah, at least some blogs noticed a few days ago, but it’s nice to see it start to break into the MSM–if a bit late, as always…
Incidentally, did the CIA ever outright say this tape was authentic, or did they just lay low for a while, and let the AP cite anonymous idiocy instead:
Xanthippas
Oh John, you’re so naive. If the video is a fake, it proves that bin Laden is dead or irrelevant or at least deserving of mockery. If the video is real, it proves that bin Laden is alive but irrelevant and deserving of mockery and so are the Democrats whose “talking points” bin Laden has adopted…or in the alternative, that bin Laden is alive and we should panic because he’s going to attack us in our beds AND he’s adopted Democratic talking points.
Reality-as they construe it-is a win/win for these guys, every time.
Jake
If one is assinine enough to assume devout Muslims feel the murdering crapstain was worthy of martyrdom, yes. However, I wouldn’t stroll into the local mosque and ask that question unless I was in the mood for a well-deserved and thorough ass kicking.
ThymeZone
Bin Laden is not dead. I see him on David Letterman all the time.
Tom Hilton
No, they’ll just pretend they never said those things and shift seamlessly to the OBL Is Dead! talking point.
Ellison, Ellensburg, Ellers, and Lambchop
My irony meter burst into flames there. Thanks for all the links to support that mystifying assertion!
gorp
I have until recently felt that conspiracy theorists tended to opt for hysterical emotion instead of research, analysis, and rational thought. The last few years has changed all that. Now I’m convinced that EVERYTHING the Bush administration has said or done is dirty. These ‘people’ are pure only in their criminality. It’s like a bad horror movie in which there is a giant crack in the Earth with millions of demons pouring forth with the intent of f*****g everything up for the coming of Satan. Unbelievable!
semper fubar
So, next time I show up at a videoconference from my desk, wearing the same outfit I’ve worn many times over the last 3 years (only zipped differently!), and I’ve “washed that gray away” in the intervening time, my boss can assume I’m dead?
Crap. He’ll probably cancel my paycheck.
ThymeZone
Yeah, you might want to trade that in for a good used Sarcasm Detector. Every spoof really needs one.
John S.
I’m waiting for EEEL to similarly sqeal the next time Cole claims that the ocean is teal!
Xenos
Try pulling up the 2007 and 2004 speeches on google video. They really do not looks like the same person. Has the CIA or the NSA confirmed the 2007 video is legit? Very squirrelly, if so.
Geoduck
I’m still strongly inclined to believe the attacks were commited by some rogue individual in the US biowarfare industry, and yes, BushCo has flushed the whole affair down the memory hole, but I believe there’s some argument now about how refined the anthrax actually was.
jenniebee
His existence or non-existence is only relevant as a mythological figure. The mythos, the idea that Western materialism is a threat, or at least an affront, to the spiritual purity of the Middle East, will live on beyond Bin Laden. And the time that his idea could have been nipped in the bud has long since passed.
Jon H
“In contrast, the text elements, such as the As-Sahab logo, appear to be from non-interlaced sources.”
OMG! Al Qaeda knows how to digitize video then add titles in post-production on a computer rather than using some wonky old NTSC hardware from a public access cable channel studio!
OMG! Apple iMovie should be called dhimmiMovie! Now supporting HD (High Dhimmi!) ROFLMPFDGMC! (ROFLMyPantsFellDownGimmeMyCheetos!)
Jon H
“I’m still strongly inclined to believe the attacks were commited by some rogue individual in the US biowarfare industry”
Just find someone who has connections with Michael Ledeen. The man helped sell weapons to Iran, surely domestic anthrax terror is something he’d be capable of arranging.
Jon H
“I’m not saying Bush and bin Laden are actually working together, just that they have a synbiotic relationship because of the way their politics work.”
Bush has really made being a useful idiot into an art form.
Being the useful idiot of people you work with and agree with is child’s play.
But being the useful idiot of someone you pledged to track down, dead or alive?
That’s art. That’s a masterpiece. That’s the work of a useful idiot savant.
grumpy realist
And when Bin Laden finally kicks off, we’ve got the President of Iran ready to step into place.
Me, I think of two male peacocks, screeching at each other. The tussle may be real, but it’s bloody well choreographed.
BIRDZILLA
It must have been made by ether MICHEAL MOORE,MARTIN SCORSIE or OLIVER STONE