Bush’s poll numbers are increasing:
We’re seeing some slight hints of positive news for the Bush administration. For one thing, Bush’s job approval rating has stopped its downward trajectory. Bush hit bottom with his administration low point of 29% in early July (based on our USA Today/Gallup poll readings). Now – in the data just about to be released from our weekend poll – Bush’s approval rating has recovered slightly to 34%. That’s not a big jump, but it is the second consecutive poll in which the president’s numbers have been higher rather than lower.
Also, we are seeing a slight uptick in the percentage of Americans who say the “surge” in Iraq is working. That may not be a total surprise given the general tone of news out of Iraq recently, including the positive light on the situation put forth by Michael E. O’Hanlon and Kenneth M. Pollack in their widely-discussed New York Times op-ed piece “A War We Just Might Win” on July 30. But it represents a change.
Indeed, the most recent New York Times/CBS News poll itself found a slight increase in the percent of Americans saying that the U.S. did the right thing in taking military action in Iraq, and were so uncertain about it that they redid the survey. And found the same results. (See this discussion by the Times’ Janet Elder).
As always, take this with a grain of salt (and by all means, remember that statistics have a left wing bias!). As to the surge, only time will tell. I am not convinced that winning the PR front for the surge equates into the surge actually working, something about which I remain skeptical and hopeful, but I am somewhat a believer in aggregated intelligence as reflected in polling data (when 70% of the country says Bush sucks and he has a 29% approval rating, I think there is something to it. Like wise, when more people say the surge may be working, there may be something to it that goes beyond any pr campaigns put forward by the administration and surge proponents).
At any rate, hard to interpret this as anything other than good news for Bush and the GOP, and let’s hope this data means the surge actually is working.
Tim F.
If you follow polls, Darwin loses and Saddam drank tea with bin Laden. I think that polls are more interesting when they deviate from the grander media narrative (it clearly pains them to acknowledge that Clinton was a popular president and Bush is not) but for reasons other than the idea that collective intelligence reflects truth.
zzyzx
I’m just suspicious because I’ve been reading proof by assertion arguments for the surge working for months now. Until I get a definition of what winning would mean (preferably defined ahead of time, instead of fitting whatever is happening into the definition), I can’t say if the surge is moving us closer or further from that goal.
The surge isn’t sustainable for that matter, so I want to know what is being achieved to make things work after the extra troops leave.
rawshark
The surge is a PR tool only so that is the measure of success. Stop looking at what they do from a logical perpective. Whether the facts fit the narrative. That is not relevant annymore. All that matters is the message. the message is that the surge is working. Even is it isn’t.
As Austin Powers would say: ‘doublethink baby, yeah!
Elvis Elvisberg
Oh boy! 34 percent!
Talk about the soft bigotry of low expectations…
Zifnab
Does that make Bush the first President to be selected by affirmative action?
Proving that you can fool some of the people all of the time, and some more of the people if you just wait for the ADD to set in.
Gold Star for Robot Boy
From the wonderful Pollster.com, here’s the combination of all approval polls: 31.4 percent. Better than a few weeks ago, but still some serious suckage.
Walker
Sampling error at +/-3%. Which means that is entirely possible these surveys are measuring no change in sentiment. And people who make statements like this
should refrain from commenting about polling statistics in order to keep from embarassing themselves.
mrmobi
Yep, John, I definitely think that this whole Iraq endeavor was worth 1 trillion dollars and thousands of American lives.
Good news!
GeoffBro
I’m with Tim F – your argument doesn’t really hold water, John. The relevant question is whether people who should know think the surge is working, not whether the population as a whole does.
As Tim points out, by the latter criterion you’d need to take a second look at evolution, natural history, and the geocentric model of the solar system.
Tim F.
The uptick probably comes from people impressed with how thoroughly he shafted the Democrats.
Bruce Moomaw
Gallup: “The next several months – including the September report from General David Petraeus which now appears to be as eagerly awaited as Moses’ review of what he found atop Mount Sinai – should be quite interesting from a public opinion perspective.”
Well, of course, we know that Petraeus is going to rhapsodize about its supposed success — after all, he designed it; he’s hardly going to be an unbiased information source about its degree of success. And of course the Talking Heads (at least in the Broadcast News Media Ha-Ha) won’t mention this, and so the natural result will be a short-term surge in optimism and in support for Bush. Until, that is, it probably turns out over the following months that the Surge is really NOT working, and the latest resurgence of optimism about Iraq fades again, just as the spikes after Saddam’s capture and the Iraqi elections faded after a couple of months — just in time for the start of the presidential campaign.
Gold Star for Robot Boy
Nah, it’s the return of all the Repubs he insulted with his “They don’t want what’s best for America” stance on immigration.
Sheesh, those people are like battered wives returning to their abusive spouses.
“He only hits me because he loves me.”
John Cole
I am reasonably sure I never said the only criteria to evaluate was public opinion. Additionally, there is no way to scientifically analyze things like the surge. With gravity and evolution there are methods.
Jake
I think what you’re seeing is the effect of Hope. People hope the thing will work and the soldiers will be able to come home. Therefore when asked (though I didn’t see a link to the actual poll) “Do you think the surge is working?” the listener says what they want to be true. Nothing wrong with that but it doesn’t tell you anything except people want the surge to work.
Ellison, Ellensburg, Ellers, and Lambchop
Seriously, it’s intervention time, guys. If you care about Tim, get him off the pipe.
jh
Clinton’s Approval Ratings
Bush’s Approval Ratings
EEEL,
If anyone here is on crack, it’s you.
norbizness
It’s the Bush model: so long as things are not the currently the worst they’ve ever been, we’re succeeding with success n’ shit!
For instance: July 2007 casualties were higher than any other July in the War’s history. However, it was slightly less than June 2007. Therefore, we are being successful. And, if they can find a random week from 2005 or 2006 where more than 26 soldiers died (as they did in the first week of August), then the surge is working!
Tim F.
Argument from incredulty, very convincing. For an encore my magic rihtwing eight ball predicts that you will cite reporters’ political affiliations while ignoring that of owners and managing editors.
jenniebee
OT, but Sadly, No! has a fun piece about the debt financing up right now.
Keep in mind that real Red-Staters believe that the real fight against terrorism is happening on the home PR front on the theory that if you stretch the timeline out long enough our “victory” is inevitable, so the only thing that can really stop us from getting our due “victory” is if “wiser” heads lose the propaganda war at home, which is possible because 1. the eeeevil left is just so good at propaganda (it’s why they’ve won one national election in a row!) and 2. the Amurikan Peepul are stupid mush-heads who can’t be trusted to come to the right conclusions without being manipulated into it.
So from their perspective, public opinion about the surge is the only battleground that matters; if people believe that The Surge is “working” over there, then the surge is having its desired effect because its entire purpose was to make people here believe that it could “work.” War is a means to achieve political ends; unless you can seriously assert that the a main objective of the surge isn’t to shore up support for the war, we’re entering a phase where we are taking military action to achieve the political ends of perpetuating our own military action.
Anybody else see a problem with that?
Tim F.
too busy to spel. feh.
caustics
Well, seeing as how those 2006 midterms led to the shit-canning of “Stay The Course” in favor of “The New Way Forward”(And BTW, we never said ‘Stay The Course’ – you just imagined that we did) it’s only natural that %3 – %5 or so of those mythical independent poll creatures eventually would wander back. After five fucking years, BushCo might have finally done something right and they smell them some ponies.
The failure of the less realistic intentions of the surge – that it was supposed to give the Iraqi government/army/police the time and incentive to get their act together will no doubt be glossed over and pretty much ignored.
Dreggas
Nah, they just got phones hooked up in outer wingnuttia (read several parts of the midwest and south) and the pollsters called new numbers.
KCinDC
John, when 70% of the country said Bush was great, was there also something to it? I guess you did think so at the time, but I thought you’d acknowledged you were wrong. Unless you’re saying you and the polls were right then and right now, and Bush is the one who’s changed, I’m not understanding your point at all.
MBunge
As others have pointed out, THE SURGE isn’t working, at least not judged by its original intention. What’s depressingly hilarious, however, is the awesome stupidity of the Iraq War Cheerleaders. If you listen to talk radio you can practically hear them having orgasms over the success of THE SURGE. But they’re ignoring three inescapable facts.
1. George W. Bush has no intention of removing U.S. troops from Iraq.
2. Iraq’s political/civil culture is completely broken in any practical sense (when Iraqis are eating each other on the streets of Baghdad it will be broken in every sense).
3. 1+2 = American soldiers continuing to get killed every day in Iraq from now until next November.
Mike
Dreggas
Really, that’s just the smell of pony shit, they just don’t know the difference.
Zifnab
And those methods are well documented in a little book I like to call The Bible. Stupid moonbats.
Rusty Shackleford
I think Bush is seeing a slight gain in the folks who were down on him because of Immigration reform. The immigration debacle eroded Bush’s support on the far right and now that the issue is receding from the nation’s focus those would-be supporters are forgiving a little and forgetting a little and coming back to him slowly.
Pug
I think Petreaus will have a fairly glowing report on the military success in Iraq. Shortly after that, they will announce a drawdown of U.S. forces because the surge has succeeded.
This is their only choice. I’ve seen a number of ex-generals on television say we will run out of forces to rotate to Iraq in the spring. These guys aren’t “defeatists” but they know the Army and National Guard is over burdened.
Then, it’s just hope for the best. The current British model in Basra isn’t very encouraging, but I think this gives the administration the best chance to claim victory, get out and salvage their electoral prospects at the same time. Otherwise, if the war continues through the 2008 election, it could be disasterous for Republicans.
Zifnab
When we needed leadership and a direction, Bush provided for us. He gave us a proud, heroic champion who was willing to do whatever it took to beat the terrorists. That was back on September 12th. You can’t honestly hold public perception to some degree of clairvoyance. No one knew about the Downing Street Memos. Few knew about the culminating corruption scandals. Alberto Gonzales wasn’t even AG yet. When this country desired a cowboy Prezenit to take quick action and save us from Brown People, we had our man.
When this country desired actual, tangible results from the War On Everything That Scares Us (Terrorists! Mexicans! Gays!), his poll numbers dropped like a rock. By ’04 he was embattled and fading fast. Anti-Bush fervor was on the rise and BSD was sweeping the nation. Public sentiment isn’t the best in measuring long-term goals, but its an excellent barometer for determining whether people are getting what they want. John Cole got what he wanted in ’00 and ’04, then he ditched his party when his party when one way and his priorities went another in ’06. There’s nothing illogical about it. Don’t be a little bitch.
HyperIon
is that an attack on moonbats (or it is merely sarcasm)?
if the new commenting policy is implemented, somebody will have to decide.
or maybe attacks on groups are ok. i await the supreme court’s opinion on the meaning of comments attacking people
sglover
I’m wondering if this is a foreground/background phenomenon. I doubt that Bush is any less reviled than he deserves, but his “opposition” is simply pathetic. It doesn’t seem all that far-fetched to me that, compared to the whining, do-nothing, betraying weasels in the Democratic Party, even a criminal idiot like Bush doesn’t look so bad…..
Gilmore
let’s hope this data means the surge actually is working.
I must be out of touch. Why am I supposed to hope this? I don’t want the surge to work. I don’t want us to “win” in Iraq. I’m supposed to hope we manage to prop up our puppet government which will cooperate in robbing Iraq of all its oil revenues and set up a Shiite theocracy? I’m supposed to hope the “surge” gives us the excuse to stay in Iraq even longer and kill more Iraqis as well as our own troops? No, I don’t really hope for that at all, sorry.
Does this mean I hate America in some way?
Formerly Wu
Ah, but as soon as they say that they will become defeatists. Thus invalidating all opinions and recommendations they might have.
Don’t you know how it works by now?
Tsulagi
The Surge is working; it’s taking time off the clock. In not too many more months, Bush will be able to achieve what he wants from Iraq.
By the time Petraeus delivers his qualified success report in September (if they can’t stall it till later), Tard will have 16 months remaining in his term. As Hillary recently found during an exchange with a Bush appointed undersecretary, the Pentagon hasn’t engaged in planning for withdrawal as an option.
Or if they have done any planning, it’s super secret. Following Bush Doctrine, if you do planning, or worse let anyone in on the plan if you actually have one, the terrorists have won. Conrad Burns understood that brilliance.
It would likely take at least two months of initial planning for large scale withdrawal before redeployment could begin. Withdrawal will take at least a year. That’s 14 months. So if Bush can drag his feet for just a few more months, even if next year redeployment begins (certainly not for the purpose to help Pubs at election time), he would leave office with still enough forces in country he would claim he handed off Iraq to the next guy for the win (he’d grab it) or loss (not my fault!). Mission Accomplished.
Andrew
Gen. Lord Savior Almighty Petreaus couldn’t fucking keep track of 190,000 assault rifles. “Bookkeeping deficiencies.” What a god damned douchebag.
Tax Analyst
Never mind the issues, Andrew. What matters is that you MAY have insulted someone. Best watch your P’s & Q’s and all that other shit.
Besides, what could bad guys possibly do with 190,000 military-issue assault rifles?
Why do you Hate America?
(Was that a “personal attack”? Just asking)
John Cole
I think when 70% of the people approved of Bush;s behavior, it is fair to state that the probability of his policies helping them and being, in the overall picture, beneficial, is more likely than when his approval rating is 29%.
I don’t think opinion polls can reflect verifiable truths, but I think they can provide anecdotal evidence, which is all I am suggesting. Perhaps part of the reason people think the surge is working is that the great masses have exposure to something that tells them it is working- different news sources from us, personal experiences with soldiers in the area, personal experiences in the area. that doesn’t mean it is necessarily so…
At the same time, it might just be the product of a PR campaign.
MBunge
Pug says “I think Petreaus will have a fairly glowing report on the military success in Iraq. Shortly after that, they will announce a drawdown of U.S. forces because the surge has succeeded.
This is their only choice. I’ve seen a number of ex-generals on television say we will run out of forces to rotate to Iraq in the spring. These guys aren’t “defeatists” but they know the Army and National Guard is over burdened.”
I’ve been hearing this stuff for a while now and it’s wrong. An organization like the U.S. military never “breaks”, it just degrades to a poorer and poorer level of performance. If the President doesn’t give a crap how badly screwed up the military becomes, he can keep it in Iraq forever.
Secondly, Bush doesn’t WANT to pull troops out of Iraq. He’s the Deciderer, waging war against the forces of evil. Removing troops from Iraq requires Bush give up that pretention.
Thirdly, if he starts removing troops and things get worse in Iraq, Bush will either have to withdraw them completely or start rushing troops back in. Either would be disasterous for him personally. But by maintaining troop levels, Bush can spend the rest of his presidency pretending that things will just get better tomorrow.
Mike
rawshark
Not defeatists? By what definition? The real one or the reich one? According to the reich wing ANYONE who doesn’t state that the US Armed Forces are the most kick assingest military power in the world and can fight everyone at the sametime while rescuing the worlds kittens and kissing the worlds babies, is a defeatist.
You’re either with the democrats plan to surrender to defeat or you have faith in Bush’s plan for VICTORY.
To even ask what Bush’s plan is is to show you favor defeat because you want to give AID and COMFORT to the enemy.
The Other Andrew
My question is–after the mythologizing of The Surge, will the talk-radio right be willing to play along with the “We’re doing so well we can draw down!” narrative, should it come about? After what happened with immigration, some optimistic/cynical part of me could see them realizing that Bush is out to cover himself, rather than actually win the war, and demand that The Surge continue (even though it can’t).
tBone
I think it’s all of the above.
Anecdote Alert! One of my friends that just got back a month or so ago said the surge had definitely improved things where he was stationed. Previously he was very candid about how bad things were, so I know it’s not just happy-talk.
If you have a lot of stories like that coming out of Iraq, combined with the obvious PR push here, it’s not suprising to see a marginal increase in optimism in the polls.
HyperIon
i saw Joe Sestak on CSPAN talking about this. he gave a very detailed answer (full of “FOBs” and other mil lingo) and his estimate was even longer. and this was the fast scenario where the people leave but much stuff is left behind, which is what the Brits are doing. he quoted an estimate of the value of the equipment…a carl sagan-like “billions and billions” number.
i had never seen Sestak before. he seems to be an intelligent and articulate vet.
rawshark
Yes. there are no bad ideas. Just good ideas that were first put forth by a democrat and so had to be ridiculed for a while. Now that the proper people are saying its the right move then well, it is.
jake
Fixed.
I’m really not getting this. It sounds like you’re saying:
Bush is locked in some sort of passive-aggressive death spiral which causes him to create crappy policies when his poll numbers slip. (Which in turn cause them to slip more, which in turn…)
or
His low approval ratings are making him too upset to produce good policy. (Although he has repeatedly said he doesn’t pay attention to polls.)
The Bush with the 70% approval rating is a distinctly different person than Bush at 29%.
What am I missing?
Tsulagi
Joe Sestak is definitely an intelligent veteran. He retired as a Vice Admiral. Also had the intelligent sense, given today’s Republican Party, to run as a Democrat.
As I said, AT LEAST a year. Depends on how comprehensive and how secure, and assuming it isn’t dragged out for political reasons. Could take two years; there are plenty of variables.
At one end of the spectrum it could be relatively fast. Soon after Baghdad fell, Tommy Franks ordered his commanders to plan to exit as fast as they entered. He had the weird thought that if we were there much longer than six months, we would be seen as occupiers not liberators, and then all sorts of problems would ensue. Of course Rummy, Wolfie, Feith knew better. They’re smart like that.
But at this point we don’t have the option of a Franks fast type withdrawal. Too much stuff, too many civilian contractors and others, etc. So even if the Dems now got their act together and were successful, there will be US troops in Iraq when dipshit flashes his final farewell smirk on the WH lawn.
TenguPhule
Might?
John, didn’t 6 years of mindless propaganda teach you anything?
TenguPhule
Might?
John, didn’t 6 years of mindless propaganda teach you anything?
scarshapedstar
Put the crack pipe down, John…