According to the Hill, Katherine Harris is going to win:
Last week, GOP Rep. Katherine Harris of Florida kicked off her campaign to unseat Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. While this should be a much-ballyhooed quest in Republican circles, too few GOP insiders seem to be excited by Harris’s launch. This is a mistake.
Katherine Harris is going to win this election for reasons that I’ll outline in this column. But before making the case that needs to be made, let me make a few disclosures. Yes, I did poll for Harris’s successful bids for secretary of state and Congress. But since 2003, I have not served Harris, providing me an opportunity for an objective view of her candidacy.
Harris’s advantages start with her celebrity status, coupled with the low expectations that surround her bid. Let’s face it: Voters today are more interested in celebrities than in politicians. More Americans read People than Time. More people follow “American Idol” than C-SPAN’s “Road to the White House.”
Celebrity commands attention. When Katherine Harris comes to town, people will want to get in on the action. And because of the nature of criticism that the media have aimed at Harris, people will expect her to disappoint.
But when voters see Katherine as she really is — a smart, vivacious and engaging woman — they will be shocked. Pleasantly shocked. There is no way that Katherine Harris won’t exceed expectations, and that’s a major plus.
Considering what I have seen to date, I will be shocked. Maybe pleasantly, but shocked nonetheless. I repeat:
I will donate $100.00 to the non-political charity of Katherine Harris’s choice if she beats him in 2006. $200.00 if she does it by more than 3% points. Unless Florida is more insane than even I thought, she doesn’t stand a chance.
I still feel safe.
Steve
The video of her Hannity & Colmes appearance was just so disturbing. While I try to stay away from Wonkettesque speculation, I really can’t imagine what her deal was.
Matt
Someone should have told the appearance coach that told her to stand sideways and bat her eyes at the camera that those tricks only work when your subject isn’t inherently frightening.
capelza
Is that the appearance with her and her two “friends” standing out in all their glory?
Demdude
This might be silly, does anyone know what she actually stands for?
(I was going to ask about her positions, but in light of previous comments……)
KC
You never know. She could be the best thing to hit Florida since, well, Jeb Bush.
John S.
I hope you are being facetious. As someone who actually lives in Florida, I can tell you that there is nothing spectacular about the job Bush has done here.
Don Surber
David Hill has this one pegged. Harris 54-45
People make personal attacks when they run out of ammunition
Matthew J. Stinson
One of the things Nelson counted on six years ago was the Yellow Dog vote, and even though the Yellow Dogs are a dying breed, he remains a strong candidate. He’s pretty much the last of the Chiles era Democrats with statewide appeal, and he’s smartly put himself on the right side of the fence on several issues. Even without her obvious political baggage, Harris would face a hell of a fight against Nelson.
Brad R.
Katherine Harris is the Olie North of 2006. Her fate all depends on wingnut turnout.
Paul L.
For those critizing her appearance on Hannity & Colmes.
Who is hotter?
48-year-old Katherine Harris
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katherine_Harris
48-year-old “Mother” Cindy Sheehan
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,11069-1737867,00.html
John S.
I’ll make a deal with you Don. I’ll refrain from making predictions about elections in West Virginia (where you live) if you refrain from making predictions about elections in Florida (where I live).
Nate
You have *got* to be kidding me! I just watched the H&C interview and, fake boobs aside, how could anyone vote for this woman? She’s utterly and completely vapid, repeats herself endlessly as if drunk, and shimmies and smiles like a 60-year-old cheerleader? Is this the best the Florida GOP can do? I don’t think so.
As for her chances of winning, it’s Florida, so who knows? It’s *crazy* down there!
BinkyBoy
Ok, so it wasn’t just me that saw her sticking her boobs out for the camera?
How can someone be using their new found sexuality so blatently and not be called on it? Colmes should have smacked her down for that ridiculous performance, it would have been dang easy.
Bernard Yomtov
Sure she’s going to win. That’s why she’s gotten such enthusiastic support from the national GOP and Jeb Bush. That’s why they never even tried to find anyone else to run. Give me a break. This guy is a Texas Republican pollster. Probably he’s fishing for a job with Harris’ campaign.
And as for you being “pleasantly surprised,” John, are you saying you like the idea of this dingbat holding a seat in the Senate?
tBone
Fixed it for you, KC.
Shygetz
Don Surber Says:
David Hill has this one pegged. Harris 54-45
People make personal attacks when they run out of ammunition
Wow, has the national Republican party been out of ammo for that long?
Vlad
“For those critizing her appearance on Hannity & Colmes.
Who is hotter?”
Yeah, Sheehan should really think about putting on some makeup, instead of spending all that time moping over her dead son.
I don’t see the need for a politician to have a pretty face to represent the interests of the people, so I couldn’t care less whether Harris is attractive or not. Her official pic from that Wikipedia link is pretty heavily Photoshopped, though, and for me that’s a bit of a red flag, character-wise. What does it say about her that, as powerful and successful as she is, she’s still so insecure about her appearance?
Pics from local events on her house.gov site (Link) are a lot more realistic.
Otto Man
Even Strategic Vision, notorious for results favoring the GOP side, had this race at 48-42 for Nelson back in July.
I think it’s safe to say that Harris, more than the usual GOP candidate, is going to be wedded to the president’s popularity. That SV poll had Bush’s approval rating in the state at 49%, while it’s now down to 44% according to Survey USA. So it’s likely Harris is dropping, too. Especially if she keeps making press appearances like the “I’m With Stupid” presentation she gave on H&C.
Your money’s safe, John. Treat yourself to some tickets to Heinz Field.
Carrick
John S: I hope you are being facetious. As someone who actually lives in Florida, I can tell you that there is nothing spectacular about the job Bush has done here.
Which is why Florida voters reelected him by a 56% to 43% margin in 2002.
KC
Ah, Paul L., asking the critical questions.
Slartibartfast
The only way Harris stands a chance is if Nelson somehow drops from the face of the earth with six weeks to go before the election. If nice tits are what matters, let’s go ahead and put her in the White House. In fact, with all the boobs the D party put on the ballot the last go-round, that might actually make it a fair fight.
That’s my prediction, anyway.
ET
And yet the GOP is now trying to recruit Joe Scarborough.
Steve
Nelson is a weak candidate (although he seems like a pleasant enough guy). No one denies that Harris has her issues, but she has a certain base that will turn out no matter what, and I don’t think it makes sense to conclude that she has zero chance.
Normally, I would say that John has the smart side of the bet regardless, but since no one has the other side of the bet…
Otto Man
Finally had a chance to read the article. The author is a longtime Republican pollster from Texas, not an independent political handicapper. Again, I think your money’s safe.
DougJ
Harris is a disaster. We’ve got to get her out. Word is the party doesn’t want her, but it’s her turn. I think Scarborough might be better, though he’s not that great either. Maybe I’m wrong, but I feel like we’ve got a better candidate down there somewhere.
Slartibartfast
Hey, just because he refrains from moonbattery doesn’t mean he’s weak. Not to my way of thinking, anyway.
Plus, he beat a fairly popular Republican (Bill McCollum) by 5%. Other than that, though, weak.
TheocracyIsComing
The turn and thrust at 0:57 is priceless. As far as her political gravitas there isn’t much there. That being said Nelson is vulnerable but the headwinds against the Republican party could be very formidable a year from now.
Steve
I meant weak in the sense of vulnerable, not in terms of how I view his politics. You’d actually think Nelson’s moderate views would be a good fit for Florida, but he doesn’t seem to poll that well.
Oscar Wilde
I solomnly pledge.
Should Ms. Harris win anything.
I will show my ass in Walmart’s window.
Davebo
48-year-old Katherine Harris
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katherine_Harris
48-year-old “Mother” Cindy Sheehan
What’s the point here Paul? Other than the obvious… that Sheehan’s ears don’t come close to touching each other at the back of her head?
Stormy70
Serious Florida question – Isn’t her father a famous Florida politician, and if he is, will he still have a “machinery” in place? Too tired from work to google, and thought one of you Floridians will know.
StupidityRules
That smile will give me nightmares. Personally I choose my politicians on what goes on inside of their heads not on how they look. But some politicians shouldn’t use their looks to try to win elections and Katherine Harris is one of them.
Caroline
No I think her father was a citrus baron. She is heavily tied into an illegal campaign contribution though.
Jim Caputo
Some months ago, I saw a video of Katherine Harris sitting a couple of rows behind a speaker on the floor of Congress. The speaker was talking about something or other but the real show was watching Harris carrying on with some congressman sitting next to her.
I was pretty sure I’d saved the video and it took me a long time to hunt it out, but I found it. I’ve put it up on my website. Feel free to download it, but my site isn’t a blog site so I’m only leaving it up there a short while.
Get the video here.
Steve
That’s a great video, Jim. There’s a campaign commercial lurking somewhere in there entitled “Katherine Harris: Is She Serious Enough for the Senate?”
Jim Caputo
I’m happy to share it. I’ll leave it up for a couple of days for anyone else that wants to grab it.
I can’t help but think if Harris had a parenthetical D next to her name, the wingnuts would be calling her “a typical Clinton floozy.” I’m glad she belongs to them despite her photogenic sweater meat. In NY, she’s what we call a “buttah” face; everything is good “but-her” face.
If I were running for office, that’s the kind of remark that would get 20 or 30 dollars out of me. Howard Dean had me reaching for my wallet all the time until he calmed his truth down a bit. Ah well, maybe someone will buy my cd.
j. blair
I would have said it was an uphill battle for Harris. But, if Nelson keeps saying things like this he could be in trouble. The military and older folks don’t think to much of anti-American campaigns…
And Senator Bill Nelson, Democrat of Florida, declared that the President should meet with Cindy Sheehan, as she “has become the symbol for all the grieving mothers across this country.”
kelsey
Jim, that video was hilarious. After a while I was expecting her to just go down on the guy.