14
Mar
Nate Silver Explains It All
I glanced over that WSJ piece by Scott Rasmussen yesterday, and then I looked at the gallup poll numbers, which seem to me to be remarkably steady, and then I looked at the aggregate numbers at pollster.com, and the first thing I thought was that if you take out the Rasmussen outliers, this looks relatively stable.
Today I see that Nate has gone through and explained what I already knew- Obama’s numbers aren’t crashing to earth as some are claiming.
At any rate, as a general rule I just have no faith in Rasmussen polls.
valdivia
but John! Rass is the only true pollster out there. The only Fair and Balanced one. Just like Fox news.
Ash
Rass has his disapproval 10 points higher than all the others? Yeah, THAT makes total and complete sense.
gbear
There were a few fun facts that came out of that Rasmussen poll:
Xecklothxayyquou Gilchrist
Nate Silver knows all. The only big mistake he ever makes is when he writes those speculative essays about what Republicans should do and assumes that they’re rational actors, motivated by anything other than spite, entitlement, greed, and whatever unwholesome sexual appetites they possess.
(nitpick: title typo "expains", unless that’s a joke so subtle it flew over my noggin).
DougJ
Rasmussen should not be taken seriously for any kind of opinion (as opposed to political race) polling.
It’s that simple.
Keith
"Rasmussen Reports: Shut Up, That’s Why."
jrg
That’s a fascinating Hot Air link. Who knew Ed Morrissey was such an adept mathematologist?
We’ll have to add poll numbers to the things that Republicans only care about when Dems are in office.
J.D. Rhoades
Maybe someone can explain this opening sentence to me:
He’s very popular, but people have no confidence in his administration? Does this make sense to anyone else? Anyone?
Lola
Rasmussen is totally dishonest, I stopped trusting their polls during the run-up to the GE. Their daily tracker was way off for months and then I think the pollster got embarrassed as November approached and made it more inline with Gallup.
The recent phrasing on some of their polls, especially regarding the stimulus, has been awful. Remember how Republicans were trotting out this one poll to show that the stimulus was horribly unpopular?
But I am glad Republicans have a pollster in their pockets because it means they will keep living in the land between denial and ideology. Keep it up, Rasmussen.
Tom
Completely OT —did anyone see the Beck deal last night? If you already talked about it, which thread? I’m dyyyyinggggg to know how it went. I wouldn’t have cared except for the mocking that Shepard did, and I haven’t seen any, errr, reviews anywhere.
anonevent
Rasmussen’s question on confidence in Obama:
Yes – 11%
No – 85%
No Opinion – 4%
Clearly there is no confidence in Obama’s ability to lead this country.
John S.
Actually, many of Obama’s proposals poll better than he does. But basically, what Doug J said.
Never trust a Rasmussen when an election isn’t on the line.
GSD
We surround you! And my ass is killing me.
-Glenn Beck
Leo v.2.0
Embarrassment has nothing to do with it—it’s purely pragamtic. There’s only one accountability moment for a pollster and that’s election day. Otherwise, it’s all about getting their name in the paper and giving clients results they can use. They can lie their asses off year-round as long as they look around and make sure they aren’t to far from the pack when it counts.
El Cid
Don’t forget that if you take the South out of U.S. polling, Obama & the Democrats’ numbers go way, way up.
Libby Spencer
Rassmussen – the official pollsters for the GOP. If they don’t like the numbers, we’ll just change ‘em….
I’m also searching for reports on the Great Glen Beck event. Was anybody surrounded?
And, I’m loving the Tunch cam. I think he’s losing weight.
leo (from Chicago)
I guess Rasmussen is the new Zogby.
GSD
Holy Jeebus,
Crooks and Liars has the tape of the Glenn Beck freakshow, blubbering-weepfest.
I couldn’t watch more than a minute or two it is so shameless and embarrassing.
No wonder Shep Smith was mocking him, it’s just grotesque.
-GSD
bootlegger
Now that Obama’s administration is the utter failure winguts warned us about can we get about impeaching him for being neighbors with Ayers and Resko, and for falsifying his birth certificate? This is good news for McCain.
bootlegger
@GSD: link? I’m also curious how many dozens of patriotic Murkans turned out to surround, um, them? Us? Teh gays? Los Mexicanos? Who exactly was the group hug suppose to surround?
GSD
Bootlegger,
The Glenn Beck group hug turned into a Randian, all caucasian Christo-fascist circle jerk.
All hands on Beck.
Creepy. The guy is gonna end up like that tool Doe who cut off his weenie and then ate apple sauce with cyanide and caught the last flight on a meteor to the darkside while wearing Adidas sneakers and a running suit.
I hope someone gets his children out of his custody soon, because the guy is an emotional basket case ready to ignite.
-GSD
GSD
Link to the Beck Blubberfest.
-GSD
bootlegger
@GSD: Gads that is spooky.
jwb
And not even then, until the last week of the election, when he starts moving the poll numbers to where he knows they belong. The only reason Nate likes him is that he’s consistently off (except for the election week shift toward the dems).
Peter J
Special Ed failed Math.
joe from Lowell
Yep.
It’s such a giveaway – he does this all the time.
Always go to the poll aggregators – I like realclearpolitics.com myself – when you see someone plumping one particular poll.
Persia
Why the fuck do we care so much about polls anyway? Seriously, it’s MARCH 2009. Could we maybe spend time on, say THE FUCKING QUAGMIRE WE’RE IN rather than second-guessing whether or not Obama’s performance this week made him any friends? He’s not there to make friends. He’s supposed to be leading the fucking country.