I have done a bit of reading, of both news sites and blogs, and I will let others do the talking:
Josh Trevino on where the situation is now:
The first thing to understand about the war between Russia and Georgia is that Georgia has lost. As Doug Muir explains, seizing South Ossetia required the quick severing, and then holding, of a single key route leading from the Caucasus peaks to the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali. A look at the terrain tells the tale: Tskhinvali’s north side is to the mountains, and its south faces toward a broad plain in which the Georgians already controlled the major routes. As an operational problem, the solution was self-evident. Seize the north-south route to Tskhinvali, and the conquest of South Ossetia resolves into an exercise in alpine insurgency — unpleasant but winnable.
***The real question for Georgia, then, is not whether is will win or lose — it has already lost — but how bad its loss will be. The worst case scenario is a Russian occupation and annexation. Fortunately for the Georgians, that’s also the least likely. Less unlikely is some sort of Russian occupation coupled with a Russian-driven regime change that puts Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili on the street — if he’s lucky. This might not be the tragedy for Georgia it seems, given Saakashvili’s rather astonishing incompetent gamble in leading the country into the present war.
Greg Djerejian, on some of the causes that got us to this point:
Which brings me to a fifth point, and perhaps a more fundamental causal factor contributing to this explosion of misfortune in Georgia, namely, that of stupidity, or at least, severe miscalculation. Saakashvili, an apparently quite idealistic 40 year-old former NY lawyer, seems to have erred too much in thinking that giddy summitry with Western big-wigs might pay dividends (or too his far too excited involvement in the Iraq adventure which, incidentally, looks to be coming to a quite precipitous end) but unfortunately, insufficiently appreciated the disastrous waning in U.S. power these past years, despite his constant hankering for NATO membership (which a resurgent Russia will never accept regardless of Kosovo or whatever else, best I can tell), and thus has fallen short with regard to better appreciating a variable which would have been more apropos, namely, a harsh dose of realpolitik.
Daniel Larison elaborates on what the last eight years have wrought:
It’s an encouraging sign that this feeling is growing at least among some officials, but what does it say about this administration that they apparently believed that the U.S. could have it all and didn’t need to prioritize which policies were more important and which were secondary? This is the crew that thought it could expand NATO twice in five years and recognize Kosovo, all the while berating Russia for its internal political conditions, and then ask the Russians for help with Iran as if nothing had happened.
There is a basic problem with having all these satellites whose interests we are supposed to protect. U.S. interests will often require our government to raise the hopes of small nations, only to dash them when our real priorities conflict with lending support to them. At the same time, to the extent that our government takes these obligations to numerous satellites seriously it requires compromising or limiting our ability to pursue policies in the American interest.
And finally, Daniel Larison notes the irony in the coverage:
What we’ll think of is the country of Georgia and we’ll realize that August 8 was the date when Russia began reassembling the former Soviet empire in earnest. ~Roger Kimball
Yes, just as Iran is poised to revive the Achaemenid Empire! It’s not just that I find the charges of Russian imperialism a bit tired coming from people who have insisted for years that invading other countries, toppling their governments and setting up puppet states is not imperialism, but I find them very boring. I mean, how unimaginative can one be to say, “They’re bringing back the Soviet Union!”? That’s the sort of thing an eccentric Bond villain would try to do. There are no more workers’ councils, and there is no more USSR. In every sense of the word, the Soviets are gone and their empire is dust. No one–not Putin, not Medvedev, not anyone–is bringing it back as it once existed. Now if Kimball had said that Moscow is trying to reassemble parts of the pre-revolutionary Russian Empire, at least in terms of its territorial dimensions, I would still say that he is grossly exaggerating what’s going on, but at least he wouldn’t be embarrassing himself by saying completely nonsensical things.
Discuss.
*** Update ***
This CNN story seems pretty thorough.
Jorge
Putin is a facist, corporatist thug – why would he want to revive soviet communism?
dslak
I have also noticed that there’s not much discussion in the mainstream media about the initial ploy that began the escalation of this situation, which was the Georgian government’s decision to rely on military force to resolve the issue with the seperatists.
They shelled a city, Tskhinvali, without any apparent regard for the civilians therein. At least the Russians can plausibly deny targeting civilians, so why only the bellyaching about how terrible the Russians have been to get into this conflict? If it wasn’t a Kosovo-type situation before, Georgia’s decision to level a city they claim to be their own has certainly made it one.
John Cole
Regardless who started it, and we can sort that out at a later date, the simple fact of the matter is that no one has the desire or the capability to confront Russia on this.
Period.
Even assuming Russia is wholly in the wrong here andeven assuming Russia initiated this (assumptions I do not at this time hold), no one can do anything about it. Much like when we invaded Iraq, no one was really in a position to stop us.
I expect Georgia will cut their losses and run, Russia will slowly consolidate their power, and the EU and others will make firm statements about respecting Georgia as an independent nation and blah blah blah. Domestically, idiots on the right and in the McCain campaign will continue to make increasingly deranged and belligerent statements about the Soviet Union, attempt to portray Obama as weak against the EVIL EMPIRE, and all of it is just silliness and empty rhetoric, because no one is going to do anything.
jake
Apparently he was snoozing when Bush looked into Putin’s soul saw another devil winking back at him and didn’t realize Putin’s was much smarter.
But I know nothing about the man. Could he really have been stupid enough to think Bush would do anything but mumble “Now, now fellas, settle down. I’m tryin’ to watch volleyball. Heh.”
cleek
the fact that we aren’t going to do anything about it is precisely why i refuse to pay attention to this.
empty
From the US point of view an important question now is how this will impact the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Saakashvili and his incompetent US advisers have given the Russians the opportunity to exert control over the one functioning (until last week) pipeline in the region that was outside their control. If the goal of the PNAC was to obtain US hegemony over global energy resources into the next century I don’t think things are going that great.
jeffreyw
“Grownups in charge”-heh. Children making believe, tottering around in their mama’s high heels, swinging wooden swords and shouting “Aarg, matey!”, and voting Democrats out of their tree forts.
These bastards have been pressing all the while for juvenile incarcerations, I say let’s let ’em have their wish.
dslak
If the debate is about whether it would be just for the US to get involved militarily, then “who started it” does matter.
As you said, the US really isn’t capable of going down that road in this case. To recognize that takes a familiarity with reality sadly lacking among a certain cliques in the US, however.
It would be easier to get them to admit that Russia wasn’t the aggressor than to admit that the US couldn’t do anything about it, even if they were.
The Moar You Know
I find it hard to believe that Saakashvili, no matter how idealistic, could be so stupid as to think that the US would intercede on his behalf over a territorial dispute between him and Russia. I hope he’s got a quick way out of the country and some friends back in New York whose couch he can crash on; otherwise he’s going to find out that life at the end of a rope is short and ugly.
dslak
I don’t think he’s looking at that kind of blowback. He probably will be pushed out of power, though.
Tim H.
Army of Darkness
“Good. Bad. I’m the one with the gun.”
Something Saakashvili should have watched.
Jay C
And, sad to say, there’s at least at 50-50 chance that these sort of attacks, silly and empty as they are will indeed gain traction for McCain and the GOP. Since ginning up militaristic war hysteria is just about the only card the Republicans have left to play.
stickler
Discuss?
Here’s a discussion point: linking to Joshua Trevino, for any reason except to mock his stupidity, is always a waste of time. Always.
The problem with Russia isn’t Putin: it’s Russia. Russia has had imperial ambitions for about seven hundred years now. They have this belief that if they don’t expand, they’ll contract. They’ve believed this since the Mongols invaded them, and the subsequent invasions by the Swedes, the Poles, the French, the Germans, and again the Germans, have only confirmed this belief. The Georgians need to suck it up and deal with it.
vivelame
A commenter at some other site aptly said that “Seeing a man mauled by a bear, you might feel sorry for him. Much less when you learn he knew full well the bear had a foul temper, and he went on and poked it with a pointy stick”.
Georgia’s bum-rush didn’t work, and they’ll have to pay the price. Too bad for the civilians (ossetes, abkhazs, and georgians).
Bob In Pacifica
After WWII a lot of former “freedom fighters” were brought into the U.S. under various CIA programs (read Christopher Simpson’s BLOWBACK). I remember Ronnie Reagan was the spokesman for one. Some of them were merely freedom fighters but a lot were stone fascists who’d collaborated with the Nazis against the Soviets. The U.S. nutured these people and their children; they’d resurface occasionally like with the exposure of the Republican heritage groups in the 1988 election, or the occasional eruptions of WACL now and then. (That fellow von Spakovsky was the son of CIA imports, and grew up among the Nazi rocket scientists in Huntsville, AL.) Weyrich trained a lot of these guys and/or their children to be politicians who were eventually sent back to former Communist countries. I wouldn’t doubt that the soon-to-be-former President of Georgia was one of them.
Maybe he thought that somehow some of the Green Berets training the Georgian military would be sucked into this, or at least killed, and that would provoke the U.S. to battle The Bear on its behalf. So sorry.
Georgia is going to lose Abkhazia too. (Wasn’t that the place they sent wizard criminals?)
Plus, with Russia firming up its control of the flow of petroleum from Central Asia overland to Europe this will make that north-south pipeline through Afghanistan all the more important. Don’t expect a quick pullout from there any time soon.
Nikolay
It’s funny that because Saakashvili is a protege of Soros, Weekly Standard was willing to bash him as “a raging nationalist and authoritarian thug” not so long ago:
Dennis - SGMM
Had Russia not intervened, many of the same people who are bashing her for intervening would have bashed her for allowing the Georgia’s oppression of the Ossetes.
The Other Steve
Yglesias decided to comment today, and I think he’s right.
When you listen to American pundits, they are not in support of Georgia. they don’t give a shit about Georgia.
They’re just against Russia.
myiq2xu
Tell the Russkies they can have Georgia, but they have to take Alabama and the Carolinas too.
The Other Steve
Notice how everybody keeps invading Russia?
Might this not cause Russians to think defensively?
Since Peter the Great, Russia has wanted one thing. Respect. They are a confused nation, not quite European, and not quite Asian and not quite Arab. They sit on the border between three cultures.
They were founded by throwing the Mongols out. They fought as the bullwark against Islam for centuries. Then they had to throw off the Imperial desires of Europe on at least three seperate occasions.
But for the last two centuries, what they have wanted more than anything else is to be regarded as important. That’s what this latest in Georgia is all about. They were broken by the fall of the Soviet Union, but they want to make it clear that they are not some piddly little podunk nation. They are a Great Power, of the stature of Britain, of France, of Germany, Japan and the United States.
This is a cry out, of “GIVE US RESPECT!”
The fact that the US has been on the decline under Bush, and the rise of China and the EU in prominence has increased their desire internally to be recognized in this way. They’re agitating for signifigance.
Observer
So we can’t talk about age old aspirations to regain superpower status unless we’re talking re-creating the culture itself? Does America’s recent adventures mean it is not empire-building as I have yet to grease back my hair and wear a leather coat over a clean crisp t-shirt?
Not that I mind necessarily. But I’d miss the Intardweb.
The Other Steve
LOL! My sentiments exactly.
Wilfred
Fuck the Georgians, they asked for it. The Russians are only protecting the rights and freedoms of the Sudeten Ger…, oops, South Ossetians, wherever they may be.
Of course, for anyone on the left or right to criticize ‘disproportionate’ response would imply a need to critique disproportionate response that we do ourselves or support when it is done by our chosen ally. None of that, now.
Georgians are this week’s Palestinians. Yea!
nightjar
Much like Mesopotamia, these border lands with mixed nationalities and loyalties have been a battle ground with Mother Russia for centuries– regardless of what they were called at any given point in time, and who started it is as relevant as quibbling about the proverbial chicken and egg.
Unless significant ethnic cleansing or genocide breaks out we should let them live out their ancient rivalries without taking sides, but should offer other relief help if asked.
Jay C
Hey, did Cole call it, or did Cole call it??
The McCain campaign’s latest response to criticism of lobbyist/advisor Randy Scheunemann’s Georgian connections:
“Obama bizarrely in sync with Moscow”
And these clowns expect to be taken seriously on foreign-policy issues because…. ?
Wilfred
Arab? You’re mixing your Semites.
John Cole
Predicting the McCain campaign and the idiot right-wingers would turn this war into red-baiting over the non-existent Soviet Union didn’t exactly take Nostrafuckingdamus.
Notice the statement from the McCain campaign included the words Kremlin and Moscow, and not, as one might expect, the word Russia.
nightjar
Shorter Mccain and wingnuttia; Let’s bring back the Cold War when you knew the enemy and every day could be lived like it was your last.
Bob In Pacifica
So Georgia and Russia are flattening each others’ cities. Can’t the world just sit back and enjoy the “shock and awe”? I just wish that those guys were advanced enough to put cameras on the tips of their missiles so we could watch them going down chimneys.
Richardson
The deep background would be of great interest here.
What did Washington know and who knew it? Was this greenlighted by the White House in any way? Were promises made to Saakashvili?
I’d be surprised if Saakashvili acted without warning DC in advance. If he did mind you, it was his gamble and a crazy one at that. The USA is weaker than at any point since 1979, the Western alliance is more divided than at any time since the 1960’s, and Russia is stronger than at any point since the collapse of the USSR. Russia’s new President is likewise eager to show his muscle and the Russian military eager to showcase its new-found military might. That’s a hell of a risk to take by Georgia without assurances from the Western powers that be. We may never know just who in DC was briefed on this, but its a question well worth asking and one I doubt our esteemed “Liberal media” will never get around to looking into. I smell another huge Neocon failure in the heart of Washington although I can’t prove it.
Wilfred
Group think/Ministry of Truth. Georgia has not attacked any Russian city.
Jay C
Russia, Soviet Union – it’s all the same to these people: reflexive Bear-bashing scores points with their jingo “base”; so who cares?
What I find really “bizarre” isn’t the McCain campaign’s resort to lame red-baiting against Sen. Obama (which is only to be expected from these Rovian assholes), but its use in an attempt to deflect criticism away from their advisor’s foreign-agent conflict-of-interest. But then, I guess Pavlovian smear-flinging is all they have left..
Jay C (aka Nostrafuckingdamus) :0)
Ed Marshall
Group think/Ministry of Truth. Georgia has not attacked any Russian city.
Yeah, nothing about your sudden embrace of the concept of national sovereignty has any odor of doublethink to it.
You can’t see the obvious need for action to save the Ossetians from the dastardly Georgians genocidal actions (and that’s exactly how it’s playing on Russian TV)?
Long as you brought up Orwell, here’s who you remind me of:
All nationalists have the power of not
seeing resemblances between similar sets of
facts. A British Tory will defend
self-determination in Europe and oppose it
in India with no feeling of inconsistency.
jagorev
Excellent post, John. The blogs you linked to have led me to do a few hours of clicking and reading, and I now feel much more informed about the situation in Georgia. If only our mainstream media could be as informative.
Gay Veteran
Saakashvili’s attack on Russian troops was a Bush league error
Eural Joiner
Great quote – can you give a source and/or link for it?
And as far as Russia’s role/ambitions, etc. I think a Mr. Kennan already laid that out for us 60 odd years ago in the “long telegram” of the late 1940’s. Makes for some very interesting reading nowadays…
iluvsummr
I’ve also been wondering about that – I have a feeling that Saakashvili was given assurances of support (beyond the military training and equipment the US has provided to Georgia) and actually believed them. South Ossetia broke away from Georgia 16 years ago and they’d established an uneasy peace with Georgia and de facto independence. Why decide to reclaim South Ossetia now through military action?
As someone else pointed out on TPM, looks like Saakashvili failed to appreciate that the US needs Russia’s support to tackle the issue of Iran getting nukes. Looks like McCain fails to appreciate that too.
Ed Marshall
It’s Orwell from a collection of essays and I can’t remember which one right now. I’ll see if I can figure it out.
Ed Marshall
Notes on Nationalism of course.
Ed Marshall
Another piece from the same essay that’s timely:
Actions are held to be good or bad, not on their own merits, but according to who does them, and there is almost no kind of outrage–torture, the use of hostages, forced labour, mass deportations, imprisonment without trial, forgery, assassination, the bombing of civilians–which does not change its moral colour when it is committed by ‘our’ side.”
Wilfred
I support the weak against the strong always. No exceptions. I support self-determination in all places, including Palestine. Do you?
Don’t prattle about things you don’t know. Cole’s criticism of McCain is fine, but to ignore Obama’s substitution of Russophopia with his newly-discovered Iranophobia is the same thing.
Incidentally, the practice of ur-fascism is alive and well, at least where anything outside of dumb parroting has become suspect. Check out 4 and 5 before you start wanking on about critical thinking.
Wilfred
The thread is about Georgia, not Israel’s actions in the West Bank.
Ed Marshall
support the weak against the strong always. No exceptions.
That sounds like an incredibly defective moral compass, but that’s pretty much what I thought in the first place.
Seriously, you cheered on Iraq when the U.S. invaded?
Davis X. Machina
The median McCain voter is something like 61. A crusade against the Evil Empire already worked once with this demographic, why not try it again?
dslak
So you support the South Ossetians because they’re weaker than Georgia, or the Georgians because they’re weaker than Russia?
Or did you support the South Ossetians until Friday morning, when Russia got involved?
Rex
BP will be the next company to learn the risks of doing business with Russia. There have been problems in recent months but this will be the last nail in the coffin.
Wilfred
Only to a thug who supports the murder of civilians because it’s politically expedient for his candidate. Also to fascists, always. Answer the charge about Palestine, if you have any guts, or morality.
New talking point, courtesy of scintillating intellect Matt Yglesias. Be careful where you throw that stone – they have a habit of coming back.
John Cole
Wilfred, this has nothing to do with candidates (other than the silliness directed at Obama and the idiocy coming from McCain).
What, exactly, is supposed to happen? From where I sit, it appears that Russia engaged in a number of things to agitate the situation, Georgia took the bait, then Georgia got their ass kicked.
The communique mentioned at the end of the Trevino post seems to signiciantly up the ante for the US, but what exactly do you want us to do? What exactly should be done? What can be done?
From where I am looking, not much.
dslak
I guess I should have said “Russia is at war with Georgia. Russia has always been at war with Georgia.” Otherwise it’s just talking points from Matthew Yglesias.
Ed Marshall
Answer the charge about Palestine, if you have any guts, or morality.
I have no idea where it comes into the picture but my take on Palestine is that it’s not a U.S. interest and never was, Zionism is at best morally muddy. If the Israeli Jews were to go the way of the French Algerians it would bother me about exactly as much.
I have no idea WTF you are talking about as far as wanting to murder people for my candidate. If my candidate is out murdering people someone needs to tell me.
dslak
Russia has certainly been looking for a chance to take advantage of a tenuous situation, but it may have been the White House that gave it to them:
If what The Telegraph is claiming is true, I’d say Saakashvilli is at fault for taking the Bush Administration at their word. That, and for indiscriminate bombing of Tskhinvali, but what are a few hundred dead Ossetians between friends?
4tehlulz
Oh u! As long as it wasn’t a Russian city, it’s perfectly fine!
Wilfred
If I were to answer in terms of my own politics I’d rephrase the questions to: ‘What is to be done?’.
The US will do nothing. We snatched Iraq and the Russians will establish a puppet state in Georgia, at their leisure:
My objection was to the tone of this thread, not necessarily your comments, which amounted to smug satisfaction that the miscreant Georgians were being punished by a righteous Russia for their transgressions.
That’s Imperial speak, and in terms of what ‘we’ should do my own feeling is that we should point it out, challenge it and refute whenever it appears. We meaning ordinary people, not politicians.
I don’t recall the last time an official story gained so much traction so quickly, supported by memes like the one Yglesias is pushing. Now that it is clear that Russian intentions surpass the mere protection of the poor South Ossetions (whose origins are a bit murky) what now?
chopper
it’s wilfred. he likes to act like he’s the pinnacle of morality and everyone else is a murderous thug, and oh yeah try to make every goddamn thread about his opinions on the situation in palestine.
seriously, john could start a thread on gardening and wilfred would start talking about how he’s trying to grow a palestinian tomato but everyone is out to kill it because we’re all a bunch of murdering scumbags.
nightjar
What little of this I see, is in the context of our wingnut populace trying to scare up Cold War neocon wetdreams, likely a little scare um before the election. The Trevino post is the best I think for dispassionate analysis.
You seem to find yourself on the right wing side of things on this one Wilfred.
Wilfred
Come on, little boy. One voice for Palestine. One. Fucking. Voice for one of the most oppressed peoples on earth. Is that really too much for you?
Maybe so – consistency, hobgoblins etc. It will be interesting to see the new left and right approached if the Russian incursion becomes a full-scale invasion, as the Times article I linked implies.
Georgia might have guessed wrong and got it’s ass kicked but it’s still an American ally. Russia’s possible invasion and occupation seems a bit much after it accomplished it’s original intentions of saving the lives and property of the honest, hard-working burghers of South Ossetia. Looks like another 3 am moment is in the offing.
Ed Marshall
If Palestine is your huge concern, doesn’t this incredible consistency of yours get bothered by the Israeli “advisors” involved there?
nightjar
Having an ally at war with, and adjacent to a nation possessing several thousand nuclear warheads pointed at your house, has it’s limitations.
Wilfred
Thanks for the question, even if it’s a bit convoluted.
Ed is referring, of course, to the extensive arms sales that Israel makes to Georgia and the technical advice it provides to the Georgian military. Now I could easily throw this question right back to all the Obama defenders, and I will, but first it’s important to remember that before Georgia shamefully and wantonly attacked the God-fearing citizens of tiny South Ossetia their use of Israeli weapons and advisors was strictly peaceful, and entirely within the norms of international arms dealing. So who am I to comment? If the Israelis continue after Russia occupies Georgia, I’d be happy, but very, very surprised.
Now I’d like to hear our two Presidential candidates respond to the question about Israeli military enabling of the Georgian war machine.
John Cole
You are becoming as tedious as No fucking Quarter and the McCain campaign.
WTF does this have to do with Obama? WTF does it have to do with Obama supporters. Did you see any mention of Obama in the post at all?
Christ. I can’t decide if you are a concern troll or just a plain troll.
Colugo
Zbigniew Brzezinski, Obama foreign policy advisor:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-gardels/brzezinski-russias-invasi_b_118029.html
“Putin is putting Russia on a course that is ominously similar to Stalin’s and Hitler’s in the late 1930s. Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt has correctly drawn an analogy between Putin’s “justification” for dismembering Georgia — because of the Russians in South Ossetia — to Hitler’s tactics vis a vis Czechoslovakia to “free” the Sudeten Deutsch.
Even more ominous is the analogy of what Putin is doing vis-a-vis Georgia to what Stalin did vis-a-vis Finland: subverting by use of force the sovereignty of a small democratic neighbor. In effect, morally and strategically, Georgia is the Finland of our day …
In view of what has happened, NATO ought to extend the membership action plan to Georgia …”
He’s right.
Note: As Carter’s national security advisor Brzezinski was the architect of the strategy to arm the mujahideen during the Soviet-Afghan War.
Colugo
Also from the above link, Brzezinski counsels against appeasement of Russia:
“(I)t is all the more important that Russia be stopped now by mobilizing a concerted, global effort to oppose and condemn the Russian invasion. …(O)ne would hope that other Russian leaders, including its business elite, will have cooler heads and be more aware of Russia’s own vulnerabilities. …
The West desisted from extending the NATO “membership action plan” to Georgia — a preparatory stage for becoming a member — out of deference to Russian objections. It is now clear that the deference shown to Putin, in the face of his obvious ambitions, has been counterproductive.”
Wilfred
Your brain is getting addled. I actually read the drivel you post and GASP!! thought there might be some continuity between your post from the remote past of yesterday (Third Bush Term) when it was necessary to consider the candidates responses to the Georgian crisis and today’s rot.
But no. It’s not continuous bullshit, it’s discrete bullshit.
You’re becoming as much as an asshole in your Democratness as you were in your Republicanness.
w vincentz
I heard a Russian guy on tee-vee this AM state that their actions in the region were to “keep peace”. I’m not kidding. The outrage seems to be that their “peace keepers” were killed. So, it seems to me, that they are hell bent on keeping the “peace” in a different way.
Oh, btw, Moscow was originally a Viking trading post. They traded metal goods with the nomadic peoples. Just saying.
Ed Marshall
I hope Brzezinski get’s exiled over that. I guess he got cold-shouldered on his Great Game bullshit from the Obama camp and had to go whine to Huffington Post of all places. Don’t even exile him, ignore him. If he was worth exiling he’d be bitching to the WSJ or something.
Colugo
Wilfred, I would be surprised if either the PLO or Hamas took anything but a pro-Russian stance.
And some on this thread are overstating the notion of there being no continuity between the Soviet Union and Russia, especially under Putin. I doubt that the Chechens feel they are completely different entities.
And John Cole has not exactly covered himself in glory either, since he took Obama’s initial state (which surely came across as more neutral than Obama himself intended) as a cue for his own tack in this and the ‘Third Bush Term’ post – one which is at odds with the Obama camp’s more recent statements. (And I’m not referring to Brzezinski.)
Wilfred’s right, you are as knee-jerk a partisan as ever.
Obama: “Over the last two days, Russia has escalated the crisis in Georgia through its clear and continued violation of Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. On Friday, Aug. 8, Russian military forces invaded Georgia. I condemn Russia’s aggressive actions and reiterate my call for an immediate ceasefire. Russia must stop its bombing campaign, cease flights of Russian aircraft in Georgian airspace, and withdraw its ground forces from Georgia. Both sides should allow humanitarian assistance to reach civilians in need. Russia also must end its cyber war against Georgian government websites. Georgia’s territorial integrity must be respected.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12419.html
dslak
Regarding Brzenziski’s stance, “Russia will strategically benefit if we do not intervene” is not on its own an for intervening.
As for Obama’s comment:
His timeline seems to be missing an important detail.
TenguPhule
Wilfred is consistant as clockwork.
John Cole
WTF is wrong with you people? I am trying to not make the same stupid god damn mistake I made a few years ago, which is listening to very piece of belligerent bullshit put out by the war party.
The post from yesterday speaks for itself- one candidate acted in a measured, responsible tone, the other immediately lashed out. I assume you all believe McCain reacted that way simply because he has a better understanding of what is going on in the region, right? The fucking guy’s messages don’t scan from one day to the next (Inflating your tire’s is stupid hahaha, wait, inflating your tires is a good idea…), but now all of a sudden, McCain and his guys are to be trusted (enjoy the irony that the statement was posted to the McCain website by Michael Goldfarb).
But hey- I am the partisan one because I refuse to immediately jump headfirst into the orgy of irresponsible rhetoric. After all, the Cold War was so much god damned fun, let’s repeat it for our kids! Let’s get our war on! An ally needs our help! WOOHOO!
The real question I have right now is how much did the Bush administration do towards leading Georgia into thinking they would be backed up if they started this shit?
conumbdrum
I daresay the neocons are eagerly rubbing their collective puds in delight.
After two decades-plus of cretinous gasbaggery following the fall of the Evil Empire (particularly their hacktastic debacle in Iraq) these numbnuts can get back to the Cold War… a conflict they understand.
Or think they do. Neocons: Getting it Wrong For Over Half a Century.
dbrown
Wilfred
Really? So you support Iraqi ‘freedom fighters’ killing American soldiers?
I highly doubt that but you are the one who seems to throw stones without thinking. While I agree with you on Palestine, your logic is so mixed up and twisted about the conflict of Georgia and Russia that your hatred of Russia clouds your any of your thinking. Georgians are not nice, good people in the conflict and either are the Russians or their allies. Stop trying to look at the conflict as US and allies verse THEM and that the whole affair is black and white, good verse evil and American verse bad russian – it so small minded. Not one of your points ‘defending the US helping the Georgians for any reason makes sense if caste in light of what we do.
TenguPhule
Funny that, the Hamas/Fatah infighting looks to kill more Palistinians this year then Israelis did.
I look forward to the Wilfred vs Wilfred debates where he attacks the Palistinians for attacking the Palistinians.
TenguPhule
When ‘weak’ people insist on picking fights with bigger ones, they get what they deserve.
TenguPhule
So are you talking about Hamas or Fatah?
Wilfred
It’s equally stupid to blithely dismiss the fact that Georgia is actually an ally of the United States and that it might not actually be in the best interests of the country to stand by and say and do absolutely fuck all nothing when the Russians turn it into another Chechnya.
Somewhere between that and nuking the entire region there exist a multitude of choices, including some that accommodate treating a friend like a something more than dogshit.
Better safe than sorry is the kind of choice available to those who only see left and right, never up or down. The disgrace of American politics is that form the day this business began choices were presented with the usual black an white myopia that has afflicted us for the past 40 years or so.
dslak
Bingo. The self-serving actions of Russia to create a crisis involving Georgia’s breakaway regions doesn’t put the Georgians in the right.
And all this talk about sovereignty or territorial integrity is simply bullshit, as South Ossetia has been de facto independent since ’92. Part of this is Russia showing the US and Western Europe the consequences of the general application of their policy on Kosovo.
jeffrey harris
Russia is not re assembling the Soviet empire. It is re assembling the RUSSIAN empire, which was the product of centuries of Russian expansion, beginning when Ivan the Terrible took back Kazan from the Tatars and reaching its high points variously under Peter the Great, Catherine the Great, and Iosif Staln. In the end, it is geography, not ideology, constrains the destiny of nations.
Colugo
John Cole: “I am the partisan one because I refuse to immediately jump headfirst into the orgy of irresponsible rhetoric.”
No, because you made a “Hugh Hewitt’s fish sandwich”-style boo-boo. Hey, we all err. Live and learn.
The fact is that Obama’s and McCain’s positions on this particular issue are hardly worlds apart, despite efforts by their respective camps to score rhetorical points.
nightjar
This does have the stink of ratfuckery by the war party in an election year. Murkin’s just ain’t buying the Jihadi under every bed routine like they used to. What’s left but to raise the former Red Menace spectre in the face of voters. But that’s just speculation on my part, although Mr. Saakashvili seems smarter than to kick the Bear without expecting backup from Washington.
Wilfred
Fatah has been a Zionist owned organization ever since Arafat landed in Tunisia. Every educated Arab knows that.
A few men, maybe. Only Israelis shoot 12 year old boys armed with slingshots and then bulldoze their families’ houses with their sisters still inside.
But this thread is about humans – not zionists.
TenguPhule
We know for sure that interfering in that clusterfuck is not in our best interests.
The USA’s position right now is weak, Russia’s is not.
It’s their ballgame now.
Ed Marshall
It’s equally stupid to blithely dismiss the fact that Georgia is actually an ally of the United States and that it might not actually be in the best interests of the country to stand by and say and do absolutely fuck all nothing when the Russians turn it into another Chechnya.
Oh, vice-versa. This is Chechnya. The Georgian version.
When the Russians collectively freaked the fuck out and made a constitutional, national-sovereignty issue out of Chechnya it makes a very precise precedent for what happened in Georgia. Ossetia is the Georgian versian of Chechnya. Except they aren’t a Great Power and imagined that the U.S. (or were led to believe) would back them up militarily.
TenguPhule
Wilfred is the best enemy Israel could ask for.
Colugo
“But this thread is about humans – not zionists.”
You are a piece of work, Wilfred. And I was just about to compliment you for not being as bad as Gerald Spezio.
John Cole
Who is dismissing they are an ally? Where have I once stated that?
What I have stated is there doesn’t seem to be anything that can be done, and the general regional impotence of the United States and NATO are going to be on full display. The Russians hold all of the cards right now- we can call for them to agree to a ceasefire, but they are probably going to inflict as much pain on the Georgian army as possible. They will agree to a ceasefire when it is to their advantage, and no strongly worded statements from the US, McCain, or Obama is going to change that.
It might be smart to stop acting like I am somehow a cheerleader for the Russian efforts, particularly since they seem to have responded completely disproportionately, and ask how Georgia (and, by extension, the United States) got into this situation. Pro-tip: it is not my fault.
Regardless, if in between lashing out at me and muddling the Georgia debate with babble about Palestine, you have managed to figure out that our options rnage between doing nothing and “nuking the entire region,” I would wagerthe Russians have as well. And the Russians, knowing full well that we are not going “nuke the entire region,” have pretty clearly decided that whatever limp response we can offer (there appear to be very few options in the middle ground, despite your insistence) is less harmful to them and their security than the gains that can be made by sending a clear message to everyone by their response in Georgia.
Additionally, let me finally state this- no one here knows what the fuck is actually going on. Everyone is reporting the same AP or MSM reports, and we really don’t have any idea what exactly has happened.
t jasper parnell
This really is key here. The number of questions about who did what when, how prepared the Russians were, etc are fairly daunting and will take years to sort out. Unless, of course, one realizes that this side or the other is the weaker and therefore the side that one ought, morally speaking, support.
Wilfred
Go fuck yourself. Who the fuck cares about your compliments? The scumbag I responded to is one of the chief defenders of Israeli aggression and a cheerleader for the murder of Muslims. Mind your own businees.
Are you drunk already? I was pointing out that there dozens of things we could do between those two options.
Minor economic sanctions, for example. We do them with Iran, why not Russia? – I mean if we actually give a shit about supporting an ally, that is.
Introducing a resolution at the Security Council to condemn the disproportionate response.
I’m too tired to list everything short of nuclear war and doing nothing.
dslak
True enough, but “they were right to go in, but got a bit carried away” doesn’t have the ring some other casus belli might.
John Cole
I have to admit to not knowing what the Hugh Hewitt fish sandwich remark is…
As to mistakes, I have made approximately three posts. The first is claiming to not know much about the region or the conflict in general (and I still cop to that), the second is this post in which the two responses from the two candidates are compared, and one quite clearly appears more knee-jerk and belligerent than the other, and this one, in which I linked to three people who seem to have a better grasp on what is going on than me.
nightjar
MCcain has been itching to start something with Putin’s Russia for some time now. It’s because he lives in a time warp and pines for the good old Cold War days. Obama couldn’t be more different in his approach to the overall situation.
Georgia is in Russia’s backyard and we’re considering taking that long disputed region into NATO, Russia’s mortal enemy not so long ago. That’s beyond foolish and not in the West’s best interest, at least for the near future. It sounds like more of Bush’s imperial fantasies of spreading American democracy everywhere via warfare, even to the doorstep of a Nuclear armed to the teeth Russia.
John Cole
That sure would show them!
4tehlulz
Wilfred’s euphemism for those that disagree with him.
Wilfred
It’s hard to believe for Homelanders but symbolic gestures like that carry a lot of meaning in the developing world, where gestures are often all that people have. When they are denied even that it tells a lot about the country they’re looking at.
For countries on the front line, declarations of American friendship are not going to mean much after the Russians Chechnyize Georgia.
Easy to laugh, but it’s better than nothing.
dslak
They haven’t meant much for a while now. The “Coalition of the Willing” consisted of a number of small countries who were economically coerced into sending troops to Iraq. That’s not exactly the behavior of a friend.
If they considered the US to be their friend because they were in Iraq, it can only be because they’re suffering from battered wife syndrome.
empty
There has been posturing going on for some time between the US and Russia. I really do think this is a proxy US-Russia skirmish – pity the poor S. Ossetian and Georgian civilians. This report from Al Jazeera in mid-July sheds some light on the preparations
Of course the two exercises were not related.
And there is this bridge in Brooklyn…
Ed Marshall
Minor economic sanctions, for example. We do them with Iran, why not Russia? – I mean if we actually give a shit about supporting an ally, that is.
You have no idea what you are talking about. Go do that, right now. Russian imports to the the U.S. mainly consist of oil to the tune of $10 billion dollars a year. American exports largely consist of chicken at about half a billion dollars.
dbrown
Wilfred
You are thinking a little more clearly but you are loosing it. Calling people names is always in poor taste and only makes your points look stupid. In the other day’s post on Bush III you said you hate any bully – well, your language is exactly what bullies use and it only makes you look very immature. I enjoy your stubbornness and refusal to bend but taking people’s disagreement as personal attacks and then lasing out like a hurt child is not mature. Grow up – you can learn a lot from these people and their posts both in clear thinking and well as how to better think out ideas.
Colugo
“in which I linked to three people who seem to have a better grasp on what is going on than me.”
That’s great, but they all appear to place much of the blame on Georgia. Perhaps there are other sources you trust that have decidedly different takes.
Hugh Hewitt’s fish sandwich
Some might call me a troll, but I prefer to think that I am acting as an external superego, or less pretentiously, a constructive critic.
“the same stupid god damn mistake I made a few years ago, which is listening to very piece of belligerent bullshit put out by the war party.”
Perhaps that was a specific manifestation of an even more fundamental mistake, which was a reflex-like ingroup/outgroup mentality. It took the sheer egregiousness of the Schiavo affair to shock you out of that. Or did you simply switch sides but retain the mentality?
Wilfred
I’m talking about a basic principle. You’re talking about what is expedient. That’s fine. I hope more and more people put principle aside and think about expediency. And I mean that sincerely.
John Cole
Could our superego take a moment to learn how to embed links?
Could someone please explain to me how not reflexively piling on Russia or Georgia, depending on your “side,” is a demonstration of me having an ingroup/outgroup mentality?
The psychobabble here is strong.
Ed Marshall
That makes you a total, goddamn, fool. Let’s get really self-righteous and quit importing oil from every state that has a problematic, if not odius human rights record.
Oh, we are all warming our hands over 40 gallon barrels filled with $100 bills instantly.
Eric
Your info is way out of date. US imports to Russia are on pace to hit $9 billion this year (well, they were before this war)…which that includes several million tons of vital heavy machinery that Russia needs to exploit their oil and gas wealth.
But, having said that, you are probably right in your assesment of America’s options. I mean, we’re not going to put Caterpillar and John Deere out of buisness to save Georgia’s ass.
TenguPhule
Maybe Wilfred and Bush can swap stories between beers.
John Cole
Here is the latest from the Beeb on the Russian escalation.
dbrown
I am appalled that McSame made his stupid, simpleton and no brain reflexive hatred of the Russians and they are evil.
Obama, who looked a little more carefully at the situation offered a more clear approach. That region, like the Balkans are a vipers nest of ethic hatreds and nationality that few even in the area can fully understand much less outsiders. The short truth of the matter is they are all wrong and dangerous when any grouo there has an advantage.
If people think Georgia deserves our help because bushwhack calls them an ally, whoopee. No one there deserves our troops and the start of a new cold war over such a stupid, ethic conflict that all sides were itching to get gong. As for deaths, who really cares? Not one person here has given a shit about well over a million to a million two hundred thousand deaths of men and mostly woman and children in the Congo these past ten years that would cost us and the world so little to stop – please!
Stop the moralizing and face facts. Russian will win and Georgian deaths mean zero for the US both in the short and long term. Occupying Georgia and that whole area will damage Russia in the long run.
If we want Russia to help with our real war on terror, they should be handled more carefully; something, maybe only Obama can do. As for bushwhack, putin is stilling laughing about how easy he has handled that simpleminded fool.
dslak
According to CNN, Georgia isn’t being completely honest when they claim to have withdrawn from South Ossetia, so the claims of Russia failing to recognise a ceasefire should be considered in this light:
nightjar
Well it all depends on what group is in and which is out at any given point in time, of course relative to the prevailing groupthink quotient determined on an individual basis .
Make sense now?
dslak
Oh, and Georgia also called a ceasefire on Thursday just before they began attacking Tskhinvali, so there’s good reason to doubt their sincerity.
nightjar
Excerpt from article.
Well, I wonder where the Russian’s learned that from.
binzinerator
What I was thinking too. Either Saakashvili was incredibly foolish to poke that bear with a stick, or the Bushies gave him one of their signature grand neo-conjobs that they’d back him up if he went ahead and poked the bear with a stick — and he actually believed them.
Which is to say, either Saakashvili was a fool or Saakashvili was a fool.
And I’m certain the Bushies did everything they could to get Saakashvili to be a fool.
No doubt there were fond right wing memories of the favorite boogyman they loved to use to frighten the nation. The Dreaded Red Soviet Menace was relegated to second banana when the Dark Islomafascist Muslim Jihadist Terrst took top billing in their act to scare people into voting for the wingnuts’ authoritarian world view.
The winner here won’t be the Georgians or the Russians or anyone else in that region. The real winners are the righties in this country, and the neocons in particular. Already we’re hearing the way-too-familiar hyperventilations about the Soviets. (Soviets? What fucking moron thinks the Soviets are coming back? Bushie morons, that’s who.) See, the Soviets are going to come back because they never really went away (just like the Cheney right always believed) and THE RUSKIES ARE GONNA CUT OFF OUR OIL!!!!
The more existential threats to America they can drum up, the more leverage they have on the weak-minded pants-wetting kneejerk fools that comprise a bigger chunk of America than I hoped existed.
The Bushies and the fools who believe them. It’s a sick symbiotic relationship. Too bad so many other, innocent, people die as a result. Too bad so many kids will have their futures darkened and narrowed by the consequences of these criminals.