13
May
Open Thread
It is beautiful outside- I predict record turn-out and Hillary by 28 (and yes, that is just a wild guess with no data driving it whatsoever).
- Premium Blogads
-
- Google Search
- Donate Via Paypal
- Teh Great Gizoogle
- Project Wonderful One
- Project Wonderful Two
- Project Wonderful Three
- Project Wonderful Four
- Project Wonderful Five
- Sitemeter
- Support this site- Shop Amazon
- Amazon Store
- Contact
- Pages
-
- Standard Blogads
-
- Recent Posts
- Recent Comments
- D-Chance. on Paterson
- Eric U. on Great expectations
- gypsy howell on Great expectations
- Morbo on Paterson
- Molly on Great expectations
-
- Blogs John Reads
- 538
- American News Project
- Amygdala
- Atrios and Co.
- August J. Pollak
- Avedon
- Bob Cesca’s Allegedly Awesome Blog
- Calculated Risk
- Cleek
- Critters by Britty
- Crooked Timber
- Crooks and Liars
- Dan Savage
- Digby
- Eunomia
- Evelyn DeHais
- Ezra Klein
- FarrFeed
- Fifth Column
- First Door On The Left
- Greg Sargent
- If I Ran the Zoo
- Incertus
- Jack and Jill
- JedReport
- John Scalzi
- Jonathan Turley
- Lawyers, Guns, and Money
- League of Ordinary Gentleman
- Mahablog
- Mario Piperni
- Ned Raggett
- News America Now
- Oliver
- Orcinus
- Outside the Beltway
- Pandagon
- Pat Lang
- Photodude
- Poliblog
- Postbourgie
- Prose Before Hos
- Pufferfish
- Roy Edroso
- Rump Roast
- Sadly, No!
- Shakes and Company
- Skippy
- Stiftung Leo Strauss
- Ta-Nehisi Coates
- Talk Left
- TBOGG
- The Agitator
- The Booman Tribune
- The County Fair
- The Daily Howler
- The Field
- The Politburo Diktat
- The Political Carnival
- The Slacktivist
- The Street
- The World According to Meh!
- This Modern World
- TRBC (Mark Kleiman and Co.)
- TREX
- Washington Independent
- West Virginia Blue
- Wil Wheaton
- Wonkette
- Blogs Tim Reads
- Blogs We Both Read
- Blogs We Monitor And Mock As Needed
- Science
- Categories
- Archives
- Meta
-
SamFromUtah
I predict a huge win for Clinton followed by a bunch of her supporters coming here and crowing about it as though you haven’t been predicting it openly for a long time. Sigh.
peach flavored shampoo
I absolutely hate while guesses.
cleek
i predict : Hillary by 70, and a solar eclpise
John Cole
I swear to God, some days I write like I have had a stroke.
ThymeZone
Yeah, why can’t a negro win a big election in Appalachia, anyway? After all, it was Appalachia that led the way on Civil Rights, right?
Walker
Don’t you teach communications? At least I can use being in a tech department as an excuse. :-)
4tehlulz
I predict another outbreak of “WHIET PEOPLE N0 LIEK OBAMA SO V0T3 HRC” trolling.
Dork
I’d love to see a geographical and age demographical breakdown. I’m guessing Morgantown and Charleston and wherever Marshall is goes 80-20 Obama, and the rest of the state’s smaller podunk towns go 90/2/8 Hillary/Obama/write-in of someone named “ANY1 BOT TEH NEEGROW”
demimondian
No, John—I used to study aphasia, and I fear your output won’t meet the criteria for either Broca’s (meaningful but incoherent) or Wernicke’s (meaningless but fluent). Brain damage won’t get you off the hook, d00d.
Mary
John, I’ve been making the same odd little verbal substitutions for years when I write. I think this hits you in your mid-thirties and never goes away.
Doug H. (Fausto no more)
I predict more ‘Obama’s doomed – DOOMED - for the general election’ blather from the usual suspects.
I also predict more supers declaring for Obama, oddly oblivious to their obvious fate.
AkaDad
McCain: Older Than Alaska
Incertus
Yeah, I’m with Doug H. And I’ll continue watching the breakdown of No Quarter and TalkLeft with great amusement.
neil
I think today’s victory is going to mark the real beginning of Hillary as White Pride candidate.
Face
If Obama wins the nomination, expect a strong surge of Home Depot and Lowe’s customers east of the Mississippi and southwest of Delaware interested in buying only two pieces of wood, a few nails, and loads of gasoline.
This promises to get ugly.
Kevin
Here’s a good one from Adam Felber: Electability
TheFountainHead
This thread smells nicer than the last one…for now.
Zuzu
Well Conan O’Brien made a predictable WV joke: people would turn out for the promise of free squirrel meat.
Sigh.
myiq2xu
Dead Collector: Bring out yer dead.
Man: Here’s one.
Dead Collector: That’ll be ninepence.
Dead Body: I’m not dead.
Dead Collector: What?
Man: Nothing. There’s your ninepence.
Dead Body: I’m not dead.
Dead Collector: ‘Ere, he says he’s not dead.
Man: Yes he is.
Dead Body: I’m not.
Dead Collector: He isn’t.
Man: Well, he will be soon, he’s very ill.
Dead Body: I’m getting better.
Man: No you’re not, you’ll be stone dead in a moment.
Dead Collector: Well, I can’t take him like that. It’s against regulations.
Dead Body: I don’t want to go on the cart.
Man: Oh, don’t be such a baby.
The Dead Collector: I can’t take him.
Dead Body: I feel fine.
Man: Oh, do me a favor.
The Dead Collector: I can’t.
Man: Well, can you hang around for a couple of minutes? He won’t be long.
Dead Collector: I promised I’d be at the Robinsons’. They’ve lost nine today.
Man: Well, when’s your next round?
Dead Collector: Thursday.
Dead Body: I think I’ll go for a walk.
Man: You’re not fooling anyone, you know. Isn’t there anything you could do?
Dead Body: I feel happy. I feel happy.
[the Dead Collector glances up and down the street furtively, then silences the Body with his a whack of his club]
Man: Ah, thank you very much.
Dead Collector: Not at all. See you on Thursday.
Man: Right.
rachel
Well Conan O’Brien made a predictable WV joke: people would turn out for the promise of free squirrel meat.I wonder what squirrel tastes like. I hope it’s better than pigeon.
cmorenc
No problem – Hillary is predicting that by convention time, she’ll win enough delegates to be the nominee, just her wild guess with no data driving it.
Ninerdave
Chicken, seriously, I’ve had it.
Dennis - SGMM
Marshall is located in Huntington. There’s a lot to like about Huntington but, it isn’t what most people would think of as a college town. I don’t look for Obama to do much better there than anywhere else in WVA.
Cris
I predict Obama will score his 1,709th point and pass Pittsnogle on the all-time list.
JGabriel
AkaDad:
McCain was born a week before Buddy Holly.
Which means McCain’s not only older than the day the music died, he’s older than the day it was born.
.
TheFountainHead
Which means McCain’s not only older than the day the music died, he’s older than the day it was born.
Many points for you, my friend.
rachel
That would be better than pigeon! It doesn’t taste like chicken at all. (To be fair, maybe if I had eaten it in a better restaurant, I might have liked it.) That lukewarm over-salted gravy… Ugh!
Libby Spencer
I’m guessing the leaked exit polls will show her up by 40 and she’ll end up with 24. Based solely on my questionable clairvoyance.
JGabriel
Ninerdave:
Chicken, seriously, I’ve had it.
Really? I’ve never had squirrel, but I would have thought it would taste more like rabbit than chicken.
.
The Grand Panjandrum
Its actually pretty good.
68-29 Clinton and she’ll get about a 10-12 delegate net gain.
But lets face it Clinton has no chance of winning the GE. Clinton lost the DC primary in a massive landslide and EVERYONE knows no Democrat has won the White House without winning DC since they got those electoral votes back in the 60’s! Incontrovertible proof, I say!
And now back to your regularly scheduled reruns of the great establishment media classic Fellating John McCain.
LITBMueller
[/activate crystal ball]: There will be a higher turnout than past WV primaries, but it won’t be as “tidal” as the other states since the media is pushing the “it’s over” theme now.
Plus, Hillary will only win by 15-25% Not anything close to the 40% in some polls, because, while bigots may be quick to share their opinion (or use racial epithets), they are generally lazy assholes, and they won’t get off their butts and go to vote. Plus, her own supporters will be too depressed by the media’s “it’s over” theme to come out in the numbers she would get if there was still some sort of mathematical chance.
Plus, American Idol is on tonight…
rachel
My mom used to make great fried rabbit, but she gave it up years ago. Frying, I mean, not rabbit. Too messy.
Sigh.
Dennis - SGMM
It’s okay. Squirrel hunting is an art. You have to use a .22 and the trick is to “bark” the squirrel. You aim so as to hit the tree in such a way that you kill the animal by hitting it (Preferably in the head) with a chip of tree bark. That way you don’t spoil the meat.
It’s easier taking poodle with a Buick.
AkaDad
And many more from me.
JGabriel
Rachel:
Does she boil it now? Cause that’s a little too Glenn Close.
.
ThymeZone
myiq has now officially made the transition from useless troll to forgotten anachronism.
Another spoof is forced to get a new handle and start a new schtick.
cleek
i nearly hit myself with a ricochet, shooting up at a tree. must’ve hit a knot or something, but i pulled the bullet out of the snow about ten feet behind me.
Dennis - SGMM
Aw hell, another comment that I wish that I had the wit to write.
rachel
Does she boil it now? Cause that’s a little too Glenn Close.Braise. But since she doesn’t work in a lab anymore, she doesn’t have so many dead rabbits to deal with, so it’s pretty much moot.
Dennis - SGMM
Nothing like a ricochet to show you just how tight you can pucker your rectum.
Bobzim
I predict Rockefeller is going to get a surprise. I’m not saying he’s going to lose, but he’s definitely going to notice. Seriously.
Marinate squirrels in milk overnight and put in favorite stew.
JGabriel
Speaking of squirrels, Sadly No! reports that McCain might pick Huckabee for his VP nominee. Which led one commenter, MileHi Hawkeye, to posit a great campaign slogan:
.
myiq2xu
Awww, are you still butt-hurt cuz I outed you parroting Karl Rove?
dr. bloor
If Obama wins the nomination, expect a strong surge of Home Depot and Lowe’s customers east of the Mississippi and southwest of Delaware interested in buying only two pieces of wood, a few nails, and loads of gasoline.
Look for prepackaged kits in the front of the store, but with charcoal starters, not gas. They won’t be able to afford the gas.
Face
You’re assuming people in WV have TVs. Or phones. Careful with that.
rob!
is that the voting % or the the average I.Q. drop between Obama and Hillary voters?
Punchy
For the love of all that’s holy, tell me you’re joking. Tell me you did not eat dad lab rabbits. Otherwise, there’s little chance of my stomach holding down my lunch.
JGabriel
Fountainhead, AkaDad, & Dennis, thank you. I have my moments.
Please share it with other people.
“John McCain: Older Than Music” is such a lovely meme, methinks.
.
JGabriel
Punchy:
Only from the control groups.
Don’t be so picky.
.
Walker
Word is that Pajama’s Media just swallowed Instapundit. How does it feel to be in the same blog network as (the other) Glen?
myiq2xu
There’s also that “wheeet” sound followed by a bang that lets you know somebody else thinks you’re a day-glo orange deer.
Notorious P.A.T.
Sure. Because Hillary’s “I’m a lot like John McCain except for the war record and I’m a woman” is such a great strategy.
p.lukasiak
Glad to see so many McCain supporters here…
I mean, at this point, given how Obama can’t attract white voters who don’t go to starbucks at least 5 times a week, anyone still supporting the acolyte of Jeremiah Wright has to want to see McCain in the White House.
NR
Do you ever get tired of being wrong?
Seriously, do you?
Scott H
Rockefeller needs a wake up call. The main thing is how much he has let down the veterans in the past few years (and simply cosponsoring the new GI Bill of Rights is not action), but there is also [redacted to conserve bandwidth].
By the way, we met a 96 year old lady being helped into the polling place – so, the turnout may be good today – she probably just missed being eligible to vote in the 1932 election.
The Other Steve
If Hillary were such a great candidate, she’d be ahead in delegates and you wouldn’t sound so bitter.
SamFromUtah
Do you ever get tired of being wrong?
NR, I think – I hope that’s a namestealer. I don’t remember p.luk being that far over the top.
demimondian
No.
SATSQ.
The Other Steve
p.luk has lost his bearings.
dr. bloor
Damn. Older than John McCain.
dr. bloor
Maybe they’re just off being inspected by Lieberman.
Mary
A poll of potential VPs. Some of my faves:
Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.)
“Does that include any sports picks or anything like that? … I would certainly consider it.”
Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.)
“Yes. Sign me up. I’ve been kidding people for years: The hours are better, the wages are just as good — whoever heard of a vice president getting shot at? — and it’s a great opportunity to travel. And actually since time has gone by, the job is robust … So sure. Anybody here would, if they’re going to be honest. The chances are slim to none. But I promise you, I would deliver all three of Delaware’s electoral votes.”
Sen. Larry Craig (R-Idaho)
“I would say ‘No, Hillary.’ ”
Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.)
“I plan to stick with my current job until I get the hang of it.”
Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.)
“Absolutely. Absolutely. I think I would be great. First of all, I know how to behave at weddings and funerals. And I know how to be commander in chief. I’d bring a lot of fun to the job. We would rock the Naval Observatory.”
Brachiator
One should never guess while driving.
If Obama wins the nomination, expect a strong surge of Home Depot and Lowe’s customers east of the Mississippi and southwest of Delaware interested in buying only two pieces of wood, a few nails, and loads of gasoline.
They won’t be able to afford the gasoline, and the two pieces of wood will be be lost to foreclosure after a re-finance.
I’m guessing the leaked exit polls will show her up by 40 and she’ll end up with 24. Based solely on my questionable clairvoyance.
And she will be projected to be the winner 15 seconds after the polls close, leaving lots of time for pundit navel gazing.
nightjar
In the blogosphere, no one can hear you guess.
John S.
Would that make you feel like you’re in good company?
Most of us are voting for the Democratic nominee that won by following the rules and running a good campaign. Stay home and pout or vote for McCain. Same shit either way. Oh, and don’t forget to pretend like somebody else made you do it. Then you can spend the next four years bitching guilt-free.
Rick Taylor
I wonder if in 2012 they’ll be telling us it’s obvious Obama can’t win re-election, and he should step down for the good of the party and let Hillary save us.
Soylent Green
John McCain found his bearings today but is still looking for his car keys.
JGabriel
P.Luk:
I supported Clinton initially, voted for her in the primary, and now lean towards Obama, though I would be happy to pull the lever for Hillary if she wins.
And I’m really sick of the Starbucks/elitist rhetoric. I never go to Starbucks – it’s over-roasted swill. In my Manhattan neighborhood, the best coffee is at Oren’s Daily Roast, though there are some places a few blocks down in the East Village with even better coffee.
The point being that there is nothing elitist about Starbucks – they’re in every city in the US, most malls, and their coffee sucks.
.
p.lukasiak
If Hillary were such a great candidate, she’d be ahead in delegates and you wouldn’t sound so bitter.
hillary is a great candidate. The only reason your guy is ahead in delegates is the race-pimping of Obama and his surrogates. Without his 90+% of the black vote, Obama would be a complete joke—he’d be Howard Dean, in fact.
Obama can’t win in November. He’s already lost the key constituencies that are needed to carry swing states—working class voters, older voters, and Latin@ voters… and he’s gonna be lucky if he carries Illinois and Minnesota by the time November comes around.
dslak
shorter p.luk: What right do colored folk have to vote?
Dreggas
Ya know, there was a real interesting poll released here in CA showing the majority of those who voted for clinton in the primary now wish they’d voted for Obama.
Talk about buyer’s remorse.
NR
Well then, how do you suggest that we fix our primary system so that black voters can’t screw it up and swing the election to someone other than the candidate that white voters prefer?
Perhaps we could change the rules so that a black vote is worth, oh, say, three-fifths of a white vote?
p.lukasiak
Here’s a clue.
Anyone who even argues about the relative merits of Starbucks is an elitist. Coffee is a staple, not a gourmet item. Obama’s white support comes from people who sip designer coffees and drink designer beer. The rest of America gets their coffee at Dunkin Donuts, or Wawa, or at the local diner—and drinks Bud and Miller and has never, EVER, entertained the idea that certain beers are better with certain foods.
Kevin
P.Luk, you’re a fucking lunatic. You sound like David Duke.
norbizness
Forgiveness if this has been posted before, but this is the best clip ever.
And if the real P.Luk is out there, and not this disgusting shambles who is commenting on this thread, you may want to come back and salvage a bit of your remaining dignity.
John S.
Obama is ahead because he won more delegates and superdelegates, not to mention beat Hillary in every other possible conceivable metric.
The “black” vote only accounts for 12% of the entire fucking population. Even with solid support from them, he needed help from the other 88% of the country.
Please fuck off, Paul. You are beyond stupidity now.
dslak
shorter p.luk: What right do people who drink fancy coffee have to vote?
Doug H. (Fausto no more)
When a candidate is doing much better with AAs than Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton, while going up against against the wife of the ‘first black President’, then maybe there’s something to it other than ‘race-pimping’.
But keep ragging against dem darkies not knowing what’s best for them. Rush’ll open a slot on his show for you in no time.
John S.
Christ on a pogo stick. I don’t even think you believe the shit you are saying, now.
I think you’ve descended in myiq territory. Kidding – but not really. Spoofing – but not really. Trolling – well, trolling.
4tehlulz
I don’t picture Lukasiak throwing down a Bud after a hard day at the plant; does anyone else?
gypsy howell
Which means McCain’s not only older than the day the music died, he’s older than the day it was born.
I just emailed that to everyone I know. I hope you don’t mind.
p.lukasiak
the system as it is set up now gives more weight to Democratic voters in heavily republican states than to Democratic voters in swing states and states that vote Democratic consistently.
The nomination should not be decided based on votes cast in states that Democrats can’t win. That includes deep south states with large percentages of black voters, and Western/Plains states with almost no black voters.
Obama is going to lose in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Florida and a whole host of states that Clinton will carry with ease—and there are no states that Obama can carry that Clinton can’t carry.
Obama hasn’t garnered the support of rank and file democrats—and lots of them will vote for McCain, rather than vote for a candidate who has ignored or disparaged their concerns during the primary season.
Genine
Obama didn’t HAVE 90% of the black vote in the beginning. Hillary had that, until she lost her mind. It had nothing to do with race-baiting on Obama’s end.
John S.
Yes, this flaw in the system is cleverly designed to give more delgates to congressional districts that had heavier Democratic turnout in the previous election.
Which of course proves your… oh, nevermind.
demimondian
Other than Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, of course. And Colorado. And New Mexico.
Paul, are you capable of making a single true statement any more?
Dreggas
Here’s a clue.
Anyone who even argues about the relative merits of Starbucks is an elitist. Coffee is a staple, not a gourmet item. Obama’s white support comes from people who sip designer coffees and drink designer beer. The rest of America gets their coffee at Dunkin Donuts, or Wawa, or at the local diner—and drinks Bud and Miller and has never, EVER, entertained the idea that certain beers are better with certain foods.
Guess what even dunkin’ donuts sells “designer coffee” now, jackass. Miller is a pretty good beer, Bud is one step removed from piss and always has been. I’m one of Obama’s “white supporters” I drink folger’s coffee every morning and when I do have a beer I drink Pacifico’s since I live in the Southwest and happen to like them. I don’t drink a fucking latte and neither do a large number of his supporters unless all those white people in Nebraska and Iowa are nothing more than elitists pretending to be farmers and “down to earth” folks. If you’re trying for the dumbshit of the year award keep it up, you might just win it asshat.
norbizness
Shorter P.Luk or maleficent reputation-damaging clone, as expressed by The Simpsons:
Quimby: I guess we’re not going to find anything.
Otto: Um, how are we going to get out of here?
Homer: We’ll dig our way out!
Wiggum: No, dig up, stupid.
Davebo
I get it. So Clinton’s support of an increase to the minimum wage is based on the assumption it will represent an instant pay increase for 90% of her supporters.
Don’t worry, I’ll pressure Obama to see to it you get that raise.
Doug H. (Fausto no more)
If Nixon or Reagan could win 49 states, than why can’t a Democrat?
Define ‘rank and file democrats’.
dslak
The urban areas of Oklahoma are teeming with Starbucks and knock-offs doing brisk business with mostly white customers. Urban Oklahomans also trend Republican more than their rural counterparts.
Just so it’s clear to everyone exactly what kind of bullshit p.luk is peddling (i.e., the same being peddled by faux-populists like Limbaugh, Hannity, and O’Reilly).
p.lukasiak
and that’s why Obama will lose. Except for the latte sipping crowd, he’s alienated most of the rest of the non-AA voters in the states that Democrats need to win.
Here’s a fun fact. AA’s made up 11% of the electorate in 2004. Since March 4th (inclusive) AA’s have made up over 20% of the electorate in Democratic primaries—and Obama has still lost the popular vote.
If Obama can’t attract more than 40% of white DEMOCRATS when he’s being called “inevitable”, when the electorate looks at the person that they are being told will be the nominee and says DO NOT WANT, you might as well just turn the keys to the White House over to McCain if you insist upon nominating Obama.
Jake
-p.lukasiak
And up is down, black is white, the sun rises in the West, we never put a man on the moon, yadda yadda yadda.
We get it. You’re batshit-crazy-punchdrunk on the Clinton cool-aid.
NR
So I guess that’s a no, you don’t ever get tired of being wrong.
That may be the case in whatever fantasy land you live in, but in reality, Democratic primary rules give more weight to states that voted Democratic in the last presidential election. That’s why California gets almost twice as many Democratic delegates as Texas even though it only has about 1.5 times the population.
And since you didn’t mention it, can we assume that you are dropping your stupid (and offensive) “black voters ruined the primary” argument?
Dreggas
I don’t picture Lukasiak throwing down a Bud after a hard day at the plant; does anyone else?
I doubt it, I don’t think they allow drinking in a mental institution, seems they do allow internet access tho.
ThymeZone
myiq, go away, you boring fuck.
JGabriel
PLuk:
You fuckin’ elitist. In PA, everyone drinks Genny Cream Ale or Rolling Rock, and gets their coffee from Maxwell House™, Elby’s, or IHOP.
.
John S.
How corrupt has your soul become, Paul?
Sheesh.
Poblano calls your bluff:
Coleman, I had the most horrible dream…I was about to become the president of the United States when this awful negro…
Davebo
Did Paul just claim that Clinton will carry West Virginia in the General with ease?
West Freaking Virginia??
My dog has more snap.
p.lukasiak
Clinton can and would carry WA, OR, and NM. And Obama can’t and won’t carry Colorado…. and Idaho? Now I know you’re delusional.
NR
Okay. With this line, you’ve established yourself as either insane, or a liar.
Have fun with that.
John Cole
Paul- Now that Obama has won, are you going to support him?
Dreggas
The urban areas of Oklahoma are teeming with Starbucks and knock-offs doing brisk business with mostly white customers. Urban Oklahomans also trend Republican more than their rural counterparts.
Just so it’s clear to everyone exactly what kind of bullshit p.luk is peddling (i.e., the same being peddled by faux-populists like Limbaugh, Hannity, and O’Reilly).
Didn’t Oklahoma go for Clinton?
dslak
shorter p.luk: Obama only polls ahead of McCain because of blacks, Latinos, and white people who drink fancy coffee. What right do those groups think they have to vote?
p.lukasiak
West Freaking Virginia??
yes, west virginia, moron. Bill Clinton carried it by double digits both times. Even Michael Dukakis carried West Virginia. Its a state that will go Democratic as long as the candidate has some clue about rural voters.
NR
Hey, John – did you vote yet?
JL
Normally I stay out of the Hillary/Barack fights but it is just to tempting. IMO the same Appalacian folks that shun Obama because of color are going to end up in the fall shunning Hillary because she’s a female. Bubba won’t flock to the polls in November to support the little woman unless Rush tells them to.
dslak
Yes, Dreggas, and I suspect most of the Starbucks customers went for her.
Doug H. (Fausto no more)
Hmm, I get it now. In patronizing.luk’s world, McCain is the nigh invincible Reaganbot Mk II. The only way the Dems can win is by going 50%+1.
Never mind the desert fiasco.
Never mind the collapsing economy.
Never mind the incumbent Worst. President. Ever.
Never mind all the GOP canaries in the coal mine having to be nailed to their perch.
Never mind how 50%+1 worked out oh so well for Gore and Kerry. Who, by the way, still never get mentioned whenever Obama is compared to not-so-great Democratic candidates.
Nope, the GOP has patronizing.luk by his short and hairies, and he’s squealing ‘Five State Strategy!’ in all caps like the good little cowed democrat he is.
John Cole
Voted at noon. In and out in 5 minutes. Our electronic voting machines (with paper trail, thank you) are super easy, and while there was a solid number of people there to vote, it went really quick.
The Other Steve
These African American voters in North Dakota and Nebraska. Do they live underground?
Fe E
Talk about buyer’s remorse.
Oddly enough, this is the rare case of buyer’s remorse that comes with a free mulligan included.
p.lukasiak
you’re an idiot.
From March 4 on, there have been primary elections in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana.
Clinton has recieved 5,549,558 votes in those states to Obama’s 5,312,776 (source CBS election pages).
The only reason that Obama is even close to Clinton is that the states have been disproportionately African American… the overall electorate in 2004 was 77% White, 11% black. In the states cited about, the Democratic party electorate has been 66.7% white, and 20.6% black. Were Obama not carrying the black vote by 87.8% to 11.1%, he’d be toast.
The Other Steve
If Hillary understood rural voters, why did she lose so badly in Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Wisconsin, Colorado, Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska… and she refuses to compete in Oregon, Montana and South Dakota?
Mary
Poblano says Clinton by 39 points tonight: Clinton 67.4 percent, Obama 28.6 percent (with four percent for Edwards and whoever else). She should get at leas 19 delegates to his 9, for a 10 delegate advantage, although she could get a couple more than that. So Al Giordano’s 12 delegate gap seems about right, too.
Andrew
Lukasiak, are you really, seriously, back to “black people don’t count”?
p.lukasiak
and that poll has Obama losing to Clinton by only 2% in California. In other words, the sample is SO not reflective of the people who went to the polls that only an idiot would bother to cite it.
John Cole
The reason Hillary lost is simple- arrogance and her Iraq vote.
She thought she had it sealed up before the votes were cast. Even Terry McAuliffe, in the latest New Yorker piece by Hertzber, is quoted as saying they had a 27 state strategy and it would be over on February 5th.
There was a great piece yesterday about Obama’s delegatecounter, a lawyer who had worked for Glenn and Gephardt and for the past year and a half designed the delegate strategy for Obama that shows the difference between the two campaigns.
Obama had a plan, a competent and capable campaign staff, an appealing message, an appealing and attractive candidate, and he beat Hillary, who had… inevitability.
Svensker
P.Luk., you may recall that Bill Clinton was President for 2 terms, and Hillary has been in the Senate for a number of years now. Both of them seem to have had some influence in the Party. If the Party Rules are so f**ked up, then why the hell didn’t these two do something about it? Why start whining NOW, only when they’re losing? If the Rules are so bad, where were all these great Democratic Party wonks who are so Right There with the statistics, etc. when the Rules could have been changed for the Party’s benefit?
Maybe the Rules are bad, I don’t really know. Maybe the system sucks, again, I don’t really know. But these Rules happen to be the ones we’re all operating under. Trying to change them at the end of the game seems a little…um, I don’t know, dumb?
Otherwise, it just sounds like a bunch of 2nd grade “it’s not FAIR
!” whining. Not to mention sour grapes.
John, P.Luk. has already stated that he will vote for McCain rather than Obama. Maybe you could lend him a sharp knife so he can cut off his nose more cleanly.
Halffasthero
Obama will win Minnesota by a very large margin. It will only be close if Governor Pawlenty gets the VP nod.
Just my opinion.
The Other Steve
From March 4 on, there have been primary elections in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana.
How does Hillary expect to win the general if the only states she can get are Ohio and Pennsylvania?
Aren’t the other 48 states important?
She can’t win in Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Illinois. Yet these have been states signifigant and important in past Democratically elected Presidents.
Hell, even Bill Clinton won these states twice. Why couldn’t Hillary?
Rick Taylor
From the Clinton Campaign:
Talk about taking lemons and turning them into lemonade! Obama has out organized us, has more staff in the field, and an historically impressive get out the vote operation. He has raised huge amounts of money, we’ve mismanaged our finances to the point where were twenty million dollars in debt. Moreover, Obama is a talented charismatic speaker with an inspiring message, while my campaign has managed to reduce our share of the African American vote to less than 10%. If with all of these incredible advantages, Obama can only beat me by a measly 100 pledged delegates or so, it’s proof there’s something horribly wrong with his campaign, and the super-delegates had better choose me if we don’t want a disaster in November.
Dreggas
and that poll has Obama losing to Clinton by only 2% in California. In other words, the sample is SO not reflective of the people who went to the polls that only an idiot would bother to cite it.
Given what you’ve been writing here idiots are fucking geniuses compared to your intelligence level.
The Other Steve
Just my opinion.
A Pawlenty VP nod wouldn’t make much difference in Minnesota. He’s not that popular of a Governor. He’s not hated, but he’s not popular enough to swing any decisions.
demimondian
Um, sorry, paul, I live in WA, child. She won’t carry us. She would have two months ago. She will lose now—and, quite likely, take the democratic governor down with her.
p.lukasiak
Andrew, are you seriously back to “white working class people don’t count, older voters don’t count, Latin@s don’t count?”
Of course black voters should count—but when we are looking at a general election, and black voters are voting almost entirely along racial lines because of race-pimping by the Obama campaign, and Obama can’t get sufficient support from the rest of the party to lock in the nomination with pledged delegates won in primaries and caucuses, if you DON’T look at his overall electability, you’re going to lose the white house.
JGabriel
PLuk:
Actually, Pollster.com has the trend line in Obama’s favor in PA. It’s close still, but Obama’s winning, and rising.
Also, most Electoral College tabulations show Obama winning without Florida – which Hillary doesn’t do. Given that FL will probably rig the race in McCain’s favor in any case, Florida is not seen as a ‘must win’, or even a ‘can win’, for any Dem candidate serious about the race.
Florida has to be considered ‘gravy’ if we win it. Any election strategy that requires Florida for a Democratic win is taking an enormous gamble.
.
dslak
Since neither party decides its nominee on the basis of popular vote, why should it determine who wins? And what good is the popular vote if we include the votes of black people, anyway?
No, only the votes of a certain swathe of middle-class white voters should really count. You know, the Soviet Union solved this problem by having some beaurocrats in Moscow determine what the proletariat really wanted. Maybe the Democrats should decide the nominee like that, just how they used to.
Punchy
Shorter PLuk—Them damn ni$$ers aren’t really citizens! Why the fuck are they voting fer? Pick my cotton!
WOW.
Rick Taylor
Hell, we hardly even campaigned in those unimportant caucus states Obama whooped us in, we practically gave them to him. If Obama can’t get landslide against us with that kind of advantage, I should certainly be the nominee!
Dreggas
Any election strategy that doesn’t fight for every state and every vote is a fucking disaster see 00 and 04. Take no chances and don’t focus on one or two states. Ya’d think the “realists” that the Clinton supporters claim to be would get that.
Jake
Folks seen this gem out of WV?
Heckofa state you got there, John.
Stooleo
Even after the Jeremiah Wright thing some still think he’s a Muslim.
p.lukasiak
Poor Rick.
Obama pulls out all the stops except for showing up in WV (not enough Kewl-Aid in West Virginia to fuel those big rallies…) and he’s gonna lose there by double digits, and still the Obots can’t admit that the guy is incapable of connecting with most of the electorate.
Obama predicted a win in Indiana—he lost. He predicted a bigger win in North Carolina—and that didn’t happen. And he’s almost certainly going to lose by more than the 12 points he predicted for West Virginia.
He’s NOT MEETING HIS OWN PROJECTIONS —and that’s despite being hailed as the “inevitable nominee”. Voters are saying DO NOT WANT. And if the Dems nominate him, McCain will win in November—if Obama can’t even meet his own expectations with everything going for him, its already over.
Original Lee
Just FYI, pluk, I’ve never had a latte in my life. I don’t drink coffee or green tea or designer blend anything, if I have bottled water it’s the Food Lion or Piggly Wiggly store brand, and when I have a beer it’s Genny Cream Ale (unless my host provides something else, of course). While I’ve gone squirrel hunting and duck hunting, I’ve never downed a shot of Crown Royal. I bowl around 140, and I usually win at HORSE. None of these things is an indicator of my current income level, education level, or political philosophy, so knock off the stupid stereotypes.
Josh E.
Oh look, it’s Philadelphia caterer Paul Lukasiak here to tell us for only the three millionth time that we’re all culture snobs and niggers shouldn’t vote.
cleek
here’s some data…
Sen. Hillary Clinton is the top choice of African-American Democrats, a new poll suggests.
Among black registered Democrats overall, Clinton had a 57 percent to 33 percent lead over Obama.
That’s up from 53 percent for Clinton and 36 percent for Obama in a poll carried out in April.
The 26-point difference between black women and men underscores the fact that the nation’s vote is divided not only by race, but also by gender, said CNN political analyst Bill Schneider. “Black women don’t just vote their black identity,” he said. “They also vote their identity as women.”
oops. that was last year.
p.lukasiak
another Obama moron. Utah?
The difference between Obama and Clinton is that Obama writes off states that Dems have a history of winning in recent elections—and that have generally been close. Clinton writes off states that Dems aren’t going to win unless there is a landslide.
The reality is that Obama is going to have to put so much effort into NOT LOSING states like Pennsylvania that he won’t have time to compete in the states that he supposed oculd win.
So while Clinton will have a secure base, and can concentrate on states like Washington and New Mexico and West Virginia and Florida, Obama will be spending all of his time in Pennsylvania and California.
jamfan
pluk—is Clinton winning her own projections? Apparently, since the race continued after Super Tuesday, she is not.
Dreggas
p.luk you really are a dumbass
Scrutinizer
Yep, p.huk, down the tubes. Poor Hillary. But Carville did say he was going to send Obama a check soon, so not everything’s bad.
4tehlulz
Oh cleek. That was before the blacks showed their true colors as America-hating racists.
Tim (The Other One)
“race-pimping by the Obama campaign”
I must have missed this ‘cause I’m white. Great Matt Taibbi article in Rolling Stone this month. Highly germane to our Democratic “cat fight”.
Stooleo
Heh, Jake beat me to it..
Scrutinizer
Then it’s a damn shame, p.huk, that Clinton isn’t going to win the nomination. Seems she skipped that step on her way to her great victory in November.
Llelldorin
Jake—anecdotes are cheap. I’m willing to bet that I could make every state in the union look equally stupid. Anyone want to bet against my ability to find some loon out in the Mojave here in California willing to say demented things? Or some Oregonian insisting that Obama will help the UN take away his God Given Right to use every Drop of Water God Himself placed in the (massive federal reclamation project in the) Klamath Basin?
If states are going to lose votes for containing Teh Stoopid, we’ll have to work on universal disenfranchisement.
John Cole
If Hillary has so much god damned support, why did they not show up and vote for her?
flyerhawk
Well it would appear that I have finally reached my end at TalkLeft. Apparently I am horrible sexist because I don’t believe that Barack Obama is responsible for speaking out against Penn Jillette
You can see the spittle frothing on Armando’s lips as he is typing his comments.
Doug H. (Fausto no more)
For someone who doesn’t understand Obama’s strategy, patronizing.luk sure can predict what Obama will do in the GE campaign.
Genine
Ugh. I hate hearing stuff like that. I vote for whoever I think is best. Gender and race be damned.
Am I really that much in the minority on that?
zzyzx
You know what pisses me off about p.l’s argument? You take a small group of people from about 5 or 6 states – a group equivalent if not smaller in population to the AA community – and make them out to be the only voters that count. Yes the votes of the working poor are important, but they’re not the only voters in the country.
PeterJ
p.lukasiak, April 6th:
Obama might be able to deny Clinton the nomination, but he’ll lose to McCain. I’ll vote for Obama, but he will lose to McCain.
My guess, he’s no longer sure that Obama will lose so he will do whatever he can to make it happen.
JGabriel
Dreggas:
Of course we fight for Florida. I’m just saying that I’d rather have a candidate that casn win the Electoral College without Florida, given the (rigged) results there in the last two elections.
That means PLuk’s “Hillary can win Florda” irrelevant. There are 49 other states. Obama has the money to mount fights in most of them (though I agree with PLuk’s assessment that Utah is pointless). Does Hillary? Not so much.
.
BFR
Meh, I think McCain’s going to have some troubles in WA and Rossi looks like McGavick from a couple of years ago (will poll close enough for a while to make it look more competitive than it really is).
I’m relatively new to the place, granted but there’s so many transplants moving into King and surrounding counties, that I think it’s going to be very difficult moving forward for the GOP to win anything statewide – sort of like CA has become.
Also, I’d have to think McCain lost some friends over the tanker deal – probably not a huge number but enough to make it pretty challenging for him regardless of who he’s running against.
Face
Heckofa state you got there, John.
Sometimes I wonder just how much inbreeding is necessary to produce that level of Stoopid. 3 generations? 4?
Can we now please ask WV to leave our country and move to Haiti? Please leave the coal and the trees, thank you, but take your moonshine stills and blacklung.
yet another jeff
Goddammit…once again, winning a state in the primary doesn’t mean you’ll win it in the general.
nightjar
Pluk, some sage advice, please keep your distance from academia and science geeks (uh, like myself). I just hope you’re aware they haven’t yet found the missing link.
Doug H. (Fausto no more)
Meanwhile, four more supers declared for Obama today, still oblivious to the patronizing.luk-guaranteed electoral fail. Its as if they’re trusting something else other than the ravings of the Internet.
JGabriel
PLuk:
Again, Obama is leading McCain in Pennsylvania, and his numbers are on the upswing. Also, the Dems won PA in ‘92, ‘96, ‘00, and ‘04.
So cut the bullshit on Pennsylvania, Paul. Obama is going to win PA. It might be close, but he’ll take it. I grew up in the NE PA, and while they’re socially conservative, they don’t vote against their economic interests like the fundies in the South and the Mid-West.
.
Jen
This is just so weird. P-luk, do you think we’re undecided superdelegates? Why the masochism? Why not progress through the other stages of grief already?
Kevin
I would add sharp objects to the things he should avoid.
cleek
why the hell are you guys wasting your energy on this troll ? he hasn’t made an honest argument in months.
learn people, learn!
Josh E.
No, he isn’t, if you believe what he writes over at Lambert’s circle jerk.
cleek
(bah, ok. i guess i replied to him, too. nevermind me…)
zzyzx
Oh and when that 85-90% of AA voters stay home in November because they’re furious about a superdelegate coup/convention fight, what states does Clinton win again?
Clinton managed to piss off a crucial component of the Democratic base over the past few months. She might have been more electable back in January, but there’s no path to the nomination that gives her a chance of winning.
yet another jeff
You mean, saying that Obama will have trouble winning California in the GE isn’t a serious argument?
Fe E
Well, this is an open thread, so have a funkshake and meet old greg.
Dreggas
You mean, saying that Obama will have trouble winning California in the GE isn’t a serious argument?
Obama will win California in the GE.
yet another jeff
Dreggas, don’t make me have to use snark tags, they’re too depressing.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
guys and gals,
This has been fun and all, but it really isn’t very cool to mess around with someone who is mentally disturbed. Dark Chocolate-Colored Latte Derangement Syndrome is no laughing matter. Say a little prayer for his speedy recovery and let it go. You know who I’m talking about [—> points upthread]
nightjar
Paul- Now that Obama has won, are you going to support him?
No, he isn’t, if you believe what he writes over at Lambert’s circle jerk.
Good catch JE. Now we got pluk on record equating the GOP racist southern strategy with the relatives of former slaves voting for Obama. Nice going pluk, your ass is showing to the whole world. Remember the comfort of the rabbit-hole, it’s calling for you.
Punchy
/gets back from TL, picks jaw up off floor.
I never, ever, thought Jeralynn would let such a fucking monster rule her blog. He truly is the worst Democrat I’ve ever witnessed. I wonder how long it’ll take before JM pulls a Kos on his disgusting ass….
nightjar
From the mouth of pluk.
grandpajohn
You know if I was as clueless as you are, I would be damn careful about giving one away
SamFromUtah
though I agree with PLuk’s assessment that Utah is pointless…
I wish I could disagree. Like I said before, I’m betting that Romney gets more votes here than any actual candidate.
Dennis - SGMM
You’re all just jealous of pluk. He alone has seen the true genius of Clinton as she tirelessly waits at the bus station for her ship to come in.
lambert strether
Double shot? Cinnamon? Good to see you again, sir!
Tax Analyst
John, I’ve been making the same odd little verbal substitutions for years when I write. I think this hits you in your mid-thirties and never goes away.
Not only does it never go away, it tends to get worse. Trust me, I’m 58 now.
Something for all you whipper-snippers to look forward to.
Tax Analyst
Ya know, there was a real interesting poll released here in CA showing the majority of those who voted for clinton in the primary now wish they’d voted for Obama.
Talk about buyer’s remorse.
Yes, I remember spending the last few days prior to the CA Primary trying to decide between HRC and Obama. I ended up going for Obama, but at the time it was a very tough decision. This is no longer the case.
nightjar
(bah, ok. i guess i replied to him, too. nevermind me
It’s cheap fun, but fun it is.
El Doh
Am I really that much in the minority on that?
Probably.
People use all sorts of spurious reasons for picking who they’ll vote for, like claims someone is a coward with zero evidence, or who would be the most fun to have a beer with.
Were we to use polls on which issues matter to the majority of the American electorate, there likely wouldn’t have been a competitive Republican for the presidency in a long time.
That said, the poll cited claims that women would vote Hillary over Obama meant they voted on gender, but there’s no claim that the men who would vote Obama were voting on gender.
Gah. Rambling. Sorry. :)
Rick Taylor
Well it would appear that I have finally reached my end at TalkLeft.
Have you been suspended? Or are you just disgusted beyond endurance?
El Doh
I missed the coffee fracas above, but this seems as good a time to ask as any—I rarely drink coffee, when I do it’s frequently Maxwell House instant (it’s a ‘comfort food’ thing, I grew up drinking it). I don’t “do” Starbucks, too expensive for what it is, IMO. I mostly drink water, and it’s usually tap water, and the odd Coca Cola (real, not diet, nutrasweet makes me ill).
Am I still allowed to vote for Obama or will I be renounced and rejected?
Sasha
So would you agree that Hillary has done the Democratic Party (and by extension, the country) a disservice by having made repeated disingenous arguments and insinuations that Obama is an elitist, out of touch with the working man especially rural whites?
She’s known for some time that there was a very strong possibility that Obama would be the nominee and not her. Her campaigning has made it harder for a Democrat win in WV.
El Doh
TL is the Evel Knievel of the blogosphere. They’re going for the world record in shark jumping.
John Cole
There are at least five of them here in Morgantown.
zzyzx
Damn WV coffee snobs!
(Actually I think there are 5 Starbucks in my neighborhood but I live in Seattle so you have to cut us some slack. My favorite is that the U Village shopping center has 3 Starbucks in it, two full sized, one in a B&N)
yet another jeff
Heh, all this Starbucks talk reminds me of this.
zzyzx
OK I looked it up. There are 64 Starbucks within a 5 mile radius of my house. Sheesh.
zzyzx
...wait, 8 of them assume that Lake Washington doesn’t exist (yes, they’re within 5 miles, but it’s a 10-15 mile drive), so it’s not quite that bad…
I’m the only person in this town that doesn’t drink coffee.
Some Guy Named Matt
The nomination should not be decided based on votes cast in states that Democrats can’t win. That includes deep south states with large percentages of black voters, and Western/Plains states with almost no black voters
kind of reminds me of animal farm
ALL ANIMALS ARE EQUAL, BUT SOME ANIMALS ARE MORE EQUAL THAN OTHERS
Dreggas
go to illwillpress.net and look for the starschmucks cartoons. Funny shit.
Genine
There are, at least, eight Starbucks within a one mile radius of where I work.
I missed the coffee fracas above, but this seems as good a time to ask as any—I rarely drink coffee, when I do it’s frequently Maxwell House instant (it’s a ‘comfort food’ thing, I grew up drinking it). I don’t “do” Starbucks, too expensive for what it is, IMO. I mostly drink water, and it’s usually tap water, and the odd Coca Cola (real, not diet, nutrasweet makes me ill).
Am I still allowed to vote for Obama or will I be renounced and rejected?
Yes, you can still vote for Obama. Because, you see, Obama has a dream. He has a dream of white children and black children playing together. He dreamed that, one day, pancake eaters and waffle eaters, coffee sippers and orange juice chuggers, arugula aficionados and those that just like lettuce will all come together and join hands. He dreamed that they will raise their voices in the words of that old negro spiritual, “Free at last, free at last! Thank God Almight, we are free at last.”
Jen
There is a Starbucks in a sort of outdoor mall, and one in the annex to the outdoor mall across the street, and one within the Target that is in the same outdoor mall. You could hit all three on foot within about four minutes. It’s like that Parker Posey line in Best in Show about how they fell in love in Starbucks—not the same Starbucks—they used to look at each other across the street..
I love that movie.
Brachiator
hillary is a great candidate.
I’ve seen people assert this since Senator Clinton entered the campaign. I have yet to see any Clinton fan support this contention. Instead they have simply sucked up every lie, every distortion, every pander as though it were manna from the gods. Worse, instead of building on her good will and demonstrating exactly why she would make a good nominee, Clinton simply went from glib entitlement to angry resentment directed at the voters who did not simply bow down before She Who Must Be Inevitable.
The reality is that Obama is going to have to put so much effort into NOT LOSING states like Pennsylvania that he won’t have time to compete in the states that he supposed oculd win.
So while Clinton will have a secure base, and can concentrate on states like Washington and New Mexico and West Virginia and Florida, Obama will be spending all of his time in Pennsylvania and California.
This is exactly why Senator Clinton’s primary campaign failed to seal the deal for her, and exactly why she would be vulnerable in the general election. She and her minions, and even some party leaders simply do not realize the new possibilities which Obama’s candidacy has brought about.
p.luk and others few things in terms of a “secure base,” and a state strategy based on past election results. Like Senator Clinton, they have discounted the millions of new voters who have turned out and the restless independents who are clearly dissatisfied with Bush and who are wary of McCain.
No one knows how many conservative and evangelical voters will simply stay home instead of voting for McCain, or how many may be pulled toward any number of insurgent conservative candidates like Barr or Paul.
And it is far more likely that hard core Democrats might stay home or not vote the top of the ticket rather than vote for McCain. But this creates an opportunity, not any kind of inevitable defeat. A Democratic Party that was not used to crumbling before every Bush Administration initiative and not so used to losing elections could easily underscore the foolishness of letting McCain win the White House:
“John McCain says that the Bush tax cuts must be extended as is because millions depend on capital gains. All of you who live on your capital gains raise your hands…
All you West Virginians who wasted your vote on Hillary Clinton. Here is the Bush Administration’s dismal record on mine safety. Do you really want four more years of this?”
The difference between Obama and Clinton is that while Clinton likes to brag about the 82 foreign countries she visited and the foreign leaders she met while accruing First Lady Flyer Miles, Obama points out that very few of those leaders are still in office today. Hillary’s strategy is so focused on what used to be that she and her supporters have no idea about what can be.
AkaDad
That’s sexist.
zzyzx
Oooh! I didn’t notice this. Washington? Washington? If you’re admitting that Washington State isn’t secure, you don’t have a safe base.
myiq2xu
Hmmm. Why did West Virginia become a state? Something to do with being pro-abolition, and not wanting to be part of the pro-slavery Confederacy?
myiq2xu
So she should have quit after Iowa? Or before then?
The Other Steve
This isn’t true.
over_educated
No. The reality is that currently Obama is winning head to head matchups against McCain and soing better than Clinton in that regard:
See here
Irrespective of the primary, Barrack looks well positioned for the GE. He does very well among AA, and well enough with everyone else to easily win this thing.
Thats’s the empirical data, your racial fetish fantasies are just that, fantasies. People care more about the Iraq war and the Economy than, even most of the rabid Clinton supporters will wake up as the GE rolls around. A few won’t, but hey, if folks want to tilt against windmills, that is their option.
Notorious P.A.T.
Oh, well, since we’re only counting votes that were cast since March 4th. . . sheesh.
Who the hell is saying that? There is a huge difference between saying “only working class white votes should count” and “all votes should count, not just workin class white votes”.
PS:
P.luk early in this thread:
The nomination should not be decided based on votes cast in states that Democrats can’t win.
P.luk later:
The difference between Obama and Clinton is that Obama writes off states
Splitting Image
What P. Luk fails to see (as does Clinton) is that the one state that matters in this election is Texas.
Regardless of who the Democratic nominee might be, the key factor in this election that the party needs to leverage is the emergence of “Turn X State Blue” grassroots movements, of which the largest is the one that developed in Texas due to Tom Delay’s gerrymandering efforts down there a few years back.
Future success of the Democratic party depends on these movements proving they can succeed by moving dependable Republican states into the Democratic column. This means it is more important to win Texas, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, and the Dakotas than it is to pour money into historical swing states and see if they can cough up 270 electoral votes this time around.
The chances of winning all of them together might be nil, but if the Democrats make significant inroads – and they can do this by taking Texas alone and its 34 votes – they can break the Republican base even if the vote itself is not a landslide. If the Democrats win Ohio this time due to superior fundraising, the Republicans will regroup and try again in 2012. If the Dems capture Texas and lose Ohio, on the other hand, how do the Republicans make those 34 votes up again?
West Virginia and Kentucky don’t factor into this because, as some people have so rightly pointed out, their internal politics hasn’t made them dependably Republican in the past. There is therefore not so much of a “turn West Virginia blue” movement as there is in Idaho. Losing them this round makes it seem like a rejection of Obama (due to you-know-what) than of the Democratic party.
Obama has put a great deal of effort into making his campaign dovetail with the interests of the blue state movements, which is why he is the right candidate for this election. Having McCain as an opponent, who is the worst candidate the Republicans have fielded since at least 1964, is nearly an act of God.
McCain will probably have to run an even worse campaign than I think he’s going to for it to happen, but I believe Obama can run the table in November. It’s very possible that more of the states McCain does win will be traditional “swing” states than Republican strongholds.
Notorious P.A.T.
A lot of people were against the Confederacy but not for equal rights. A lot of people were aginst slavery because they wanted an all-white country.
Notorious P.A.T.
I’ve seen people assert this since Senator Clinton entered the campaign. I have yet to see any Clinton fan support this contention.
What are you talking about?
?
? She’s been a Senator for a gigantic 8 years while Obama has been a Senator for a measley 4! And she was named one of America’s 100 best lawyers! She has a lot of experience in health care reform, too
!! In ‘93 the president put her in charge of installing universal coverage, and [mumble mumble mumble] lived happily ever after! ! !
Sasha
So she should have quit after Iowa? Or before then?
Hillary can run as long as she wants. However, she should quit attempting stick the “elitist who doesn’t care about the working man” meme onto Obama. It won’t help her win the nomination and it could hurt him in the general. Frankly, she knows better and shouldn’t have started it. (Ditto her bone-headed comment that essentially stated that McCain would be a better C-I-C than the MUP.)
Brachiator
I’ve seen people assert this since Senator Clinton entered the campaign. I have yet to see any Clinton fan support this contention.
What are you talking about??? She’s been a Senator for a gigantic 8 years while Obama has been a Senator for a measley 4! And she was named one of America’s 100 best lawyers! She has a lot of experience in health care reform, too!! In ‘93 the president put her in charge of installing universal coverage, and [mumble mumble mumble] lived happily ever after! ! !
Oh, the snark, it burns so bright. More! More!.
Heck, on paper, Harriet Miers had as illustrious a legal career as Senator Clinton, that Blue Collar Momma, that West Virginian Beverly Hillbillary….
In 1986, Miers became the first female president of the Dallas Bar Association. In 1992, Miers became the first woman to head the State Bar of Texas. She has also served as chair of the Board of Editors for the American Bar Association Journal and as the chair of the ABA’s “Commission on Multi-Jurisdictional Practice”.
t jasper parnell
One day Bush was told that 2 Brazilian soldiers had died in Iraq the day before. Bush seemed stunned and overcome with emotion. An aide asked what was wrong as he had never seen the President react like this before to casualty figures. Bush explained that he wasn’t sure how many there were in a Brazilian, but he knew it was a big number and never thought that things were that bad.
Tlaloc
“The reason Hillary lost is simple- arrogance and her Iraq vote.”
This is one of the few times where Cole and I agree on something about this primary. Hillary did lose on those two issues. Conversely Obama has won on his natural charm, which has let him make good use of his opponent’s missteps while generally recovering from his own. The problem is that the Iraq issue Hillary mostly lost on isn’t one of rationality but of emotion (and you cannot find a bigger opponent of the Iraq war than me). Her arrogance is, of course, her own problem.
kind of an off white
See, I dunno. I think if she’d pulled an Edwards it would’ve reset everything to zero. By refusing to show contrition—a gambit I’ll concede makes sense for the first female candidate with a real shot—she makes Obama, rationally speaking, the more likely of the two to actually get us the holy hell out of there. Do I think he’ll really do it? No, but I’ve got the, whadayacallit, the audacity of something-or-other.
Tlaloc
“By refusing to show contrition—a gambit I’ll concede makes sense for the first female candidate with a real shot—she makes Obama, rationally speaking, the more likely of the two to actually get us the holy hell out of there.”
Only if you believe that getting us out of there relies on either foresight of the problems back in 2003, or in repentence for a lack of same.
Just Some Fuckhead
Welcome back from Insanityville, Tialoc.
Just Some Fuckhead
AFAIK, no. The western counties of VA used the civil war to unconstitutionally secede from VA because they historically were getting the short end of the stick from Richmond, monies for improvement projects, transportation, etc.
I read somewhere that West Virginia sent about equally the number of of men to each side of the conflict.
Tlaloc
“Welcome back from Insanityville, Tialoc.”
Erm, thanks, I guess. Out of curiosity is that statement meant to indicate that I normally live in Insanityville, and hence I’m “back” when I’m here? Or is it saying that my lack of support for Obama put me Insanityville (in which case I’m still there).
p.lukasiak
2-1 for Clinton in West Virginia.
When will Obama quit?
PeterJ
January 20, 2017.
SATSQ.
Sasha
January 20, 2017.
SATSQ.
[tip of the hat]
Calouste
Which means McCain’s not only older than the day the music died, he’s older than the day it was born.
.
You can send this to http://www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com