Hillary’s Endgame
Josh Marshall discusses Donna Brazille’s appearance this morning on This Week here, and in another posts states the following:
So there it is. Since neither side now seems to think revotes are likely and the Obama campaign and the DNC will never agree to seat the delegates from the non-sanctioned primaries, Sen. Clinton seems to be saying pretty clearly that she plans on taking her campaign all the way to Denver.By saying she’ll continue through the remaining ten contests, regardless of the outcome, and implicitly, I take it, regardless of any superdelegate declarations over the next two months, Sen. Clinton is saying it’s no longer about pledged delegates, or superdelegates or popular votes. It’s about Florida and Michigan. Period.
At the GOS, Rerutled runs the numbers and determines that right now Clinton has 61 votes on the credential committee, Obama has 70, but that 26 are up for grabs. With the way they are apportioned with the remaining contests in ten states, he comes to the following conclusion:
Thus, there is a razor thin margin here, where indeed Clinton has more of a chance in a credentials fight than Donna Brazille’s (incorrect) division of votes. With the 25 DNC members, and 26.33 members still to be elected in future primaries, a majority on the credentials committee can be had by either candidate.The credentials committee will submit their majoity report to the convention floor, which will state who is credentialed and who is not. Further to the DNC rules (in the same document above, Sec VII, B, 2), a minority of the committee composed of only 20% of its membership may submit a minority report, which will be voted on at the convention floor, too.
That is her endgame. She needs the credential committee to seat the illegitimate delegates from Florida and Michigan. For all her bluster about the will of the people, this is all about back-room deals to subvert the will of the people. As she can not make up the popular vote and she can not make up the delegate count, this is what she has left.
If Hillary “wins” the nomination this way, I will have a very hard time voting for her. I left the GOP to get away from this kind of sleaze.
*** Update ***
One campaign watched Florida in 2000 and smiled in admiration at the GOP handiwork:
Unlike Kath, I was largely unable to take photos because my credentials were challenged. Along with the credentials of a large swath of the elected delegates.After six or so extremely hot, crowded, confusing hours, many of us were unable to determine why, exactly, our credentials had been challenged. The Clinton camp had announced that they were targeting the 23rd district for credentials challenges and, by god, that’s what they did.
By the end, the Clinton folks were willing—hell, eager—to throw out not just random individuals but the entire delegation of 2 precincts. (So much for voter enfranchisement, eh, Hills?)
The protest process was tailor-made for alienating committed voters, wearing them out to the point where they would drop out. By the end of the night, the convention floor was abuzz with tired, pissed-off voters who now hate Hillary with the fire of a thousand suns.
I’m one of them. Thanks for sucking those 10 or so hours away from me, Hills. Love ya. Mean it.
And she never did figure out why her credentials were challenged:
When we tried to check in for credentials, we were told we had been challenged. My name was on a list that indicated that I needed to leave the stadium grounds and head for the junior high across the street where my credentials “would be verified.”Enormous confusion, three floors of junior-high-school, five rooms, and two computer data-base checks, I was told I had been “cleared” to participate. I got a fresh print and, thereafter, was able to pull my credentials.
It took me four hours to get my paperwork, and another hour to work my way through the crowd, down the elevator in my wheelchair and back to the convention floor. Then, another hour to get my credentials. And I was one of the quick ones.
The one thing I can tell you is that ALL of the challenges were against Obama delegates.
To continue my Iraq analogy from earlier, this is apparently the hearts and minds portion of the Clinton campaign.
Velvet Elvis
If Mike Gravel is running as an indie or Libertarian, I’ll vote for him over her in a heartbeat. Regardless of the letter after his name, he’s the better Democrat.
zzyzx
She won’t win that way. The party is dumb, but they’re not stupid. If it starts to play out that way, look for a sudden influx of SDs to suddenly go towards Obama. The fact is that if they split the delegates over the next 10 states more or less evenly, not even counting MI with the 0 delegates for Obama that Clinton is trying for will get the victory.
demimondian
Offhand, does anybody know how many delegates Clinton would actually get if she took the haul from MI and FL as currently constituted? I don’t think it’s actually all that many…
ntr Fausto Carmona
You, me, and a sizeable chunk of potential Democratic voters. The superdelegates know this, which is why they’ll eventually end this before we even get to Denver.
zzyzx
67 for Obama, 198 for Clinton.
No way it happens.
demimondian
Wow, zzy, that’s good. How many undecided from MI? IIRC, it’s a fair number…
marjowil
There’s a post on this at the G.O.S. which refutes the math in an update: http://www.dailykos.com/story/.....006/487172
It will be closer than Brazille says.
However, in another post, Obama is pulling away from Clinton in national polls, 52% vs. 42%.
Also, Obama has apparently won Texas with five more delegates than Clinton, despite Clintonites disputing delegate credentials like crazy, and Obama delegates standing firm.
Dug Jay
Hard to believe that all of you who say you would never vote for her if she somehow wins the nomination, would actually sit back and let McCain win in the general election.
John Cole
Just like the Democratic elites rallied together to end American involvement in Iraq.
You have more faith in this party than I do. But then again, I joined pre-disillusioned.
Just Some Fuckhead
Also, Obama has apparently won Texas with five more delegates than Clinton, despite Clintonites disputing delegate credentials like crazy, and Obama delegates standing firm.
Yes, Obama support has been remarkably deep. Read this touching diary from a wheelchair-bound Texas Obama delegate:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...../63/477945
Just Some Fuckhead
Also, in the comments she notes the tedious and difficult obstacle course the Clinton folks created for her to become certified, an hourslong process that required visiting multiple floors of another building down the street.
rob!
“Hard to believe that all of you who say you would never vote for her if she somehow wins the nomination, would actually sit back and let McCain win in the general election.”
if HRC gets the nom, i either won’t vote at all, or write-in Obama if possible.
look, i don’t want McCain to win, but i think in terms of honesty he looks like Lincoln compared to Clinton. now, i think McCain is WRONG WRONG WRONG on almost everything, so i could never vote for him.
but from this vantage point i can’t see voting for Hillary. it rewards her—and future candidates—for running a scorched earth campaign, and it makes me sick.
if the Dem Party allow Hillary to win via these back-door shenanigans, then they don’t deserve to hold the White House ever again.
everyone picks on the Bush Team for their vast incompetence—and rightly so—but if the Democrats can let someone destroy their party because they lack the backbone to stop it, then they really don’t deserve the highest office in the land.
zzyzx
55 uncommitted.
That would make it 198 to 122.
What I could easily see happening is give Obama the undeclared, and take the 50% haircut that the Republican punishment was. That would make it 99- 61. Clinton would get a few but it wouldn’t flip anything.
The only way Clinton is helped is if she gets ALL of MI.
Just Some Fuckhead
What I could easily see happening is give Obama the undeclared, and take the 50% haircut that the Republican punishment was. That would make it 99- 61. Clinton would get a few but it wouldn’t flip anything.
Millions of voters didn’t vote because the party AND the candidates told them it absolutely would not count. I can’t really see saying now, “Haha, shouldn’t have believed us, fuck you.” I only see that sort of thing creating massive future cynicism towards the “Democratic” party. I agree it could happen that way but I can’t see how it’s a more equitable solution than either not counting them or splitting ‘em 50/50.
ThymeZone
As much as I genuinely don’t like Clinton, or her asshole husband, or her idiot supporters …. I am not convinced that this latest posturing is not basically what somebody, probably Brazille, said it was this morning, namely, a way to keep the fundraising window open.
Without a plausible path to victory, however unlikely and however annoying, she has no way to raise funds, and without funds, her campaign is over.
It’s a desperation move, but it won’t mean much in the long run.
PeterJ
Wrote a comment about the FL and MI delegates and superdelegates back in February. (The bit about the superdelegates is probably outdated now)
Pledged delegates:
The best case scenario for Clinton (All uncommited in Michigan votes for Clinton and she gets Edwards delegates from Florida) would give her 250 delegates and Obama 63.
Clinton up 187.
The worst case scenario for Clinton (Obama gets all uncommited delegates in Michigan and Edwards delegates in Florida) would give her 168 delegates and Obama 145 delegates.
Clinton up 23.
Superdelegates:
Clinton right now leads 14-4, so right now that would mean 10 extra delegates for Clinton. The remaining 36 haven’t stated who they would choose.
So if Clinton would pick up the rest of those superdelegates, she would get 300 delegates, Obama 67.
Clinton up 233.
The best case for Obama (Clinton would get her pledged delegates and no superdelegates, no chance for that happening), Clinton 168, Obama 199.
Obama up 31.
So I guess if Obama was 67 votes short of 2025…
Hopefully the math is correct :)
a1
Sigh….look, the problem isn’t Hillary. She thinks she’s the right person to run the country, and she doing all she can to make that happen. Think that Obama’s will be a better president or candidate, or that the Democratic Party’s going to be destroyed if she makes it to the convention? Guess what – she doesn’t agree! If she thinks she can beat McCain, Obama can’t, and the country would be best served if she’s president, it’s only natural, from her perspective, to continue if she still sees a chance.
The real problem, as it has been so, so many times before, is with a Democratic “leadership” of mushy-headed, indecisive cowards. This nomination could have been settled yesterday. The second Hillary started praising McCain, hanging out with Scaife, or reviving the Wright issue, they could have brought her in, told her the superdelegates were going to back Obama, and that she and her husband would be drummed out of Democratic politics if she continued. Harsh, but if they believed their party was headed towards disaster, that would be the best course. But, no – they’re going to keep waffling and holding their tongues, watching their party go down in flames rather than be accused of actually taking a stand for once.
Finally, Al Gore was a nice, decent, completely above-ground Democrat in 2000, magnanimously conceding the election for such wonderful concepts as “the sake of our unity of the people and the strength of our democracy” and allowing George Bush to take power.
Well, how’s that been working out for everyone?
slippy hussein toad
Hard to believe that all of you who say you would never vote for her if she somehow wins the nomination, would actually sit back and let McCain win in the general election.
and then . . .
Millions of voters didn’t vote because the party AND the candidates told them it absolutely would not count. I can’t really see saying now, “Haha, shouldn’t have believed us, fuck you.” I only see that sort of thing creating massive future cynicism towards the “Democratic” party. I agree it could happen that way but I can’t see how it’s a more equitable solution than either not counting them or splitting ‘em 50/50.
And that’s why I’m with John. If Hillary is genuinely this cynical and power-mad, and the party lets her get away with it, we’ve got such a huge problem that it’s better to just let the party crash to the ground and start over somehow.
And I keep saying this because I intend to stand firm. IF HILLARY FILCHES THE NOMINATION IN AUGUST, I WILL STAY HOME IN NOVEMBER. I’M NOT FUCKING KIDDING ABOUT THAT, DLC!
I’ll be of a completely different mind if she genuinely WINS the nom, but this credentials committee nonsense, or poaching delegats . . . that’s out of control and not the party I support.
Rarely Posts
Wrong. The Florida Dems told us to vote anyway, and we did. In record numbers. Hundreds of thousands by early voting and absentee ballot. And I found out a funny thing on Easter. My parents both voted in the primary and had no idea about the fact that the delegates weren’t to be seated until I explained it to them on Easter.
Incertus
Only if by “better Democrat” you mean “nutball who wants a national initiative and the bullshit FairTax plan.”
Tell the whole story. We voted because there was a goddamn tax initiative on the ballot. Amendment One—remember that piece of shit? The primary was an afterthought.
Ninerdave
I saw the diary John posted in the update last night. The first thing I wondered about was how common is it for any campaign to pull stunts like this? Is it par for the course? Or is Hillary the only one pulling shit like this.
over_educated
i would vote for hillary is she stole it, SOLELY to piss off the Conservative fucktards who voted for her in “operation Chaos.”
Cain
You’ve got to admire the sheer force of will to win. The way to defeat her it seems is to outspend her in the next couple of states and just saturate the airwaves. If they can bankrupt her and force her to spend her own money it might make her back out since she’s racking up debt like crazy. If she loses she’ll be left with a pile of debt something for her to think about.
I mention this since we’re busy playing political hardball and she wants to take it to the credential committee this is one way to challenge her. Still, I admire the strategy when you can’t win. Sadly, it might have an effect on the general election especially for the democratic party. Four years of McCain can be blunted by an all democratic congress and he’ll make so many more mistakes that in four years, I’m pretty sure the country would have hit rock bottom. The main issue is going to be supreme court candidates. I’m betting that McCain is going to be weak and capitulate on supreme court picks and really after 4 years, after all that kissing up, it’s possible that he might give the social conservatives the big finger. The man is a big flip flopper.
Anyways.. my two cents. Can’t rule the Clintons out is definitely true.
cain
myiq2xu
Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!:
By Richard M. Scaife
TRIBUNE-REVIEW
Hillary Clinton walked into a Pittsburgh Tribune-Review conference room last Tuesday to meet with some of the newspaper’s editors and reporters and declared, “It was so counterintuitive, I just thought it would be fun to do.”
The room erupted in laughter. Her remark defused what could have been a confrontational meeting.
More than that, it said something about the New York senator and former first lady who hopes to be America’s next president.
Go ahead boiz, get yer CDS on!
Just Some Fuckhead
Regardless of what you claim your local Democrats told you, Florida AND Michigan held non-sanctioned contests, this was known, and the turnout hasn’t been near the record turnout in every other state.
cleek
who could’ve predicted such a thing?! besides me, of course
Wilfred
This is the kind of wanking that enabled her to get this far. If, from the outset, someone had told her that all of her self-serving, divisive, me first, narcissistic shit had been called out and flattened we wouldn’t be here. Fuck her and her crowd. If she gets the nomination I will not only vote for McCain, I’ll work for him and I guarantee I will smear her so bad with Muslims in Northern Virginia and Michigan she won’t get one percent of that vote.
TenguPhule
So when the ‘temporary’ surge phase starts, she’ll declare victory and go home with her ball?
TenguPhule
Or you could be a hero with McCain.
zzyzx
I agree. That’s why it’ll be done once they’re sure it won’t matter. It’s the “let the baby have her bottle” solution.
Leo
Florida and Michigan are a false hope for Clinton. Once the primary season ends the superdelegates will declare. And with Obama ahead in all the meaninful catagories and Clinton facing serious credibility issues they ain’t gonna go for for her.
At that point Obama will be the presumptive nominee with a delegate lead of over 200 (perhaps as high as 400). As the presumptive nominee, he will have control over the sequence and staging of the convention, the seating arrangements, ect. With his substantial delegate lead and his control over the process he will be able to safely seat Michigan and Florida. He will probably force the MI uncommitted delegates to become Obama delegates, but beyond that he will be well positioned to appear magnanimous and seat the disputed delegates. A 70-some delegate hit won’t matter at that point.
The only way this sequence goes off the rails is if Obama has a major scandal that undermines him with the superdelegates. That’s Clinton’s gameplan at this point.
Just Some Fuckhead
Ouch!
LiberalTarian
Bummer.
zzyzx
And the best thing about Operation Baby Bottle is that she has no way of turning it down.
This race ends in one of three times as far as I can see. It’s either the next couple of weeks when it comes out that Clinton has a lot less money than people thought (speculation on my end here, but with some reason for it) which cranks up the death spiral some more, the day after PA if Obama gets exceedingly close, or the day after NC/IN when it becomes apparent that there really is no path forward.
All of this is null and void if Clinton does somehow defy all of the polls and racks up a huge string of victories.
Rarely Posts
It wasn’t with me. And you can’t deny the Florida Dems told us to vote regardless.
demimondian
The “baby bottle” scenario is what I’m thinking may happen, too. If Obama can force the uncommitted MI delegates to vote for him, then I think it’s over, particularly if he only loses PA by one or two delegates (which is looking moderately likely).
The Grand Panjandrum
Yep. The delegates will be seated for the very reasons you point out.
TZ I believe you are correct. What will be most telling over the next few weeks is the Clinton campaign financial position. Is funding drying up? Unless she gives herself a loan again I wonder how committed she really is to this race. Can she survive without a huge cash infusion? While we debate the horse race, it may be over because the money dried up and that is the only thing that can keep her in the race.
Rarely Posts
You can say that all you want. It doesn’t change the facts on the ground. Not seating the delegates is going to piss a lot of voters off. Florida going for McCain isn’t going the help the Dems one bit.
Mike D.
“Don’t drink to me, drink to my NOMINATION! An endorsement from me is like a bullet from a gun, fucker! You refuse to take my calls, you’re fucked forever! PABST BLUE RIBBON!” (Claps rubber mask to face and breathes deeply.)
Thank you. I feel so cleansed.
Rarely Posts
Yup. That’s why ya’ll want to force Hillary out now. You hope it will solve the FL and MI problem.
demimondian
Which is irrelevant, since the DNC had ALREADY TOLD YOU that your votes weren’t going to count.
Your party decided that it was more important than the rest of the nation. It’s now learning that it isn’t; that, in fact, the only way its delegate will be seated is if they don’t matter. Justice stings.
zzyzx
In terms of funding, she’s been trying to raise this $3 million for about 4-5 days now and she’s still stuck at under $2. She’s been sending out constant emails and has a big counter on her website and everything.
She might get there, but it’s taking a lot of work. It looks like she’ll be reporting less income this month than last. If Obama had a decent month (and rumors have it that he had over 1,000,000 contributions over the month), then it’ll feed more into perceptions.
How do you know when a campaign is about to end? The candidate starts talking about how she or he will be pressing on.
demimondian
Actually, since the odds are good the Florida is going for McCain anyway, it doesn’t matter to the party.
Pb
Whereas, if she stole the nomination that way, I’d have a very easy time not voting for her. Disenfranchising me in the primary won’t win my vote in the general—shock!
Just Some Fuckhead
And you can keep saying “Oh noes! Florida McCain!” and that isn’t going to change the fact that your solution is a slap in the face to the voters that followed the will of the DNC/candidates and will just as likely produce “Oh noes! Florida McCain” as your scenario.
Rarely Posts
No, just as important.
rob!
is Florida, as a state, worth all this trouble? first they hand the election to Bush in 2000 because a bunch of Floridians didn’t know how to punch a ballot, now they try to jump ahead in line and f**k everything up. maybe we should look into just dissolving the state and divvy it up between LA and GA.
“sometimes you have to lose a finger to save the hand.”—bill hicks
Incertus
As others have noted, and speaking as a Floridian, I’d be real surprised if Florida winds up being close. The only way Obama wins here is if he’s winning 40 states, which isn’t outside the realm of possibility.
And if there are a lot of voters pissed about the delegates not being seated, it’s news to me, and I keep a pretty close eye on the news around here. There are some office holders who support Clinton who are making a lot of noise about it, but the voters themselves? Not much, and certainly not enough of them to make a difference if they decide not to vote out of petulance.
One last thing. Clinton supporters keep pointing to the turnout as though it’s a sign that the Democrats wanted to be counted. Again, allow me to point out that on the ballot as well was a Constitutional Amendment that called for lowering property taxes, and it needed 60% of the vote to pass. That’s the reason turnout was as high as it was. The primary was secondary, and anyone tellign you otherwise is full of shit.
zzyzx
“Disenfranchising me in the primary won’t win my vote in the general—shock!”
Yeah, I am impressed at how people are so scared of having 2 states not count but aren’t worried at all about how the other 48 states will feel.
Rarely Posts
So you think Obama’s supporters will vote for McCain?
I don’t know how to explain this to you any more fully than I already have except to say that a majority of Florida Democrats tend to be moderate, not progressive. And a lot of them think McCain is moderate. If you think Florida can be written off, have at it.
Rarely Posts
I didn’t know that. I voted against it, btw.
I voted absentee because I was out of town on election day and I never thought the DNC would follow thru with its threat.
Just Some Fuckhead
Hey, good news: those folks are Clinton/McCain voters this time around. So we’ll get ‘em accidentally at the ballot box.
Llelldorin
If FL wanted to be “just as important,” it could have placed its primary on February 5, along with the rest of us who wanted early primaries. Oddly enough, had it done so Clinton might be the presumptive nominee right now—-if she’d won DNC-approved primaries in FL and MI on Super Tuesday, the outcome would probably have been reported as “Clinton surges with major Super Tuesday wins” instead of “Obama, Clinton split Super Tuesday races.”
Instead, it tried to vault ahead of the rest of us in big states, despite DNC and RNC rules to the contrary.
Just Some Fuckhead
I don’t know how to explain this to you any more fully than I already have except to say that a majority of Florida Democrats tend to be moderate, not progressive. And a lot of them think McCain is moderate. If you think Florida can be written off, have at it.
I don’t buy ANY of your arguments. I just went down Crazy Lane with you to show you that the end result of your logic is a Florida loss either way. You agreed: we’re done.
scrutinizer
I can believe that Florida might go for McCain—-demographics in FL have been drifting that way for the last couple of elections.
I can’t believe that hordes of pissed-off Florida voters would vote for McCain rather than Obama out a fit of pique over the primary-that-wasn’t. That scenario is silly on its face.
There you go. In other words, you thought that the rules could just be flouted because the DNP would never actually, you know, do what it said.
The Moar You Know
Well, I haven’t seen a better argument for not seating the Florida and Michigan delegates than this. Actions have consequences.
Rarely Posts
True. Neither did the Florida Dem Party, apparently.
I see the overall feeling here is that Florida doesn’t matter anyway. I can certainly understand why people would feel that way, given our history. If the Dems can win a national election without Florida remains to be seen.
Incertus
It’s been close enough the last two times that a much smaller state would have made the difference.
Martin
Remember that MI elected a viable number of ‘Uncommitted’ delegates that will almost certainly swing Obama at the convention. People keep excluding these, but I don’t think they should.
By being uncommitted, they can vote for whoever they want on the first ballot if they are seated.
They could have been more important since the DNC was offering a 10% delegate bonus for anyone moving their election back to April, 20% bonus for May, 30% bonus for June.
Part of the fighting between the DNC and the states over the revote options was that the state wanted their bonus for holding a June revote and the DNC said no.
demimondian
Actually, the best argument is that we won’t allow ourselves to be blackmailed. It’s utterly unacceptable to believe that extortion should ever be rewarded.
Martin
Sure they did. Both Florida and Michigan are on record as saying that the DNC would strip their delegates and that they didn’t care because the delegates wouldn’t decide the election.
McAuliffe said in 2003 that he would strip Michigan if they moved their election forward. DC had theirs stripped a few years ago, Delaware in 1996. This isn’t unprecedented, folks.
The problem isn’t what the DNC did or what the Obama supporters are saying, it’s the folks that keep sending the message to FL/MI that this wasn’t their fault and that they should go ahead and stay home in Nov.
The GOP stripped half of MI/FL delegates. Is anyone complaining? Is anyone saying that MI/FL republicans should stay home? Even half of them?
You people are fucking pathetic that would let the states willingly and knowingly break the rules, knowingly strip you of delegates, and then not only make excuses for them but self-disenfranchise yourself by threatening to not vote in November.
I’m seriously coming of the opinion that we should sell Florida back to Spain – you people can’t help but fuck up elections and blame everyone else for your incompetence. Start recalling people – start with Gellar and work your way out until the state party figures it out.
Brachiator
Hard to believe that all of you who say you would never vote for her if she somehow wins the nomination, would actually sit back and let McCain win in the general election.
The general election is still a long way down the road. What remains to be seen for now is whether large numbers of voters will still see her as their first choice even though they are seeing how empty her campaign is, and having been exposed full blast to the cynical dishonesty of her methods.
Or will they do the right thing and stop her now?
Otherwise, the choice would be a flawed but honorable McCain vs a flawed but dishonorable Clinton, an interesting dilemma for voters. No doubt Clinton’s spin would be that “I had to be vicious and cheat to win the nomination, but that’s not the real me.”
I’m not sure how many voters would buy this. I certainly wouldn’t.
Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!:
Hillary, reassessed
By Richard M. Scaife
TRIBUNE-REVIEW
Hillary Clinton walked into a Pittsburgh Tribune-Review conference room last Tuesday to meet with some of the newspaper’s editors and reporters and declared, “It was so counterintuitive, I just thought it would be fun to do.”
This is an interesting play, and not enough attention has been paid in the media to Scaife’s motives.
There is, for instance, this interesting little tidbit in Scaife’s Wikipedia entry:
So both Scaife and Clinton have a reason to try to stop Obama from getting ahead. Scaife could be pulling a Limbaugh, playing nice with Clinton now, but eager to turn against her in the general election. And Clinton may be willing to use Scaife to build up support among conservative Pennsylvania voters, betting that she can survive any future attack that he might mount against her.
This is a high-risk strategy for Senator Clinton. If Scaife starts attacking her again should she win the nomination, then his “Hillary reassessed” will become laughable, and Clinton will look like a fool who was totally played by her enemies.
But you know what? I have absolutely no problem with her strategy here. To use a sports metaphor, it is a nifty bit of scrambling on her part, but whether she makes a gain or ends up being sacked for a big loss remains to be seen.
Cain
No man, sell it to Cuba. :-) The florida seniors would love that. Better healthcare!
cain
Rarely Posts
True. There’s really no reason to vote in the general then, is there?
Rarely Posts
Thanks, Martin. I love how you think the Dems should model themselves on what the Reps do. And you are absolutely correct, Florida sucks. Thank you for making me see the light.
demimondian
Guess not. So, perhaps you should just disenfranchise yourself. Or maybe just vote for a candidate which represents you fantasy-based policies.
McCain is, after all, the real American that real Americans like you have really been waiting for.
Rarely Posts
Demi, are you capable of a coherent thought…I plan on voting for the Dem nominee, not McCain. Even though you people have convinced me that my vote means nothing…it’s a matter of principle.
All your divisive BS isn’t shared by Obama. You guys don’t seem to realize how much you hurt his chances with all of your nastiness toward members of your own party.
Martin
Where the fuck did that come from? This is actually one of the places where the Dems and GOP have been working together pretty well. They both have held that Super Tuesday is the earliest primary date except for 4 regional states that they both agreed to be IA, NH, NV, SC. And they both have similar penalties – and some of this happened at the urging of the DNC, not the GOP.
The reason that FL/MI both lost all their delegates is that they never made an effort to move the date back to 2/5. They didn’t need to succeed, they needed to TRY. They didn’t. Go watch that video I linked to. The DNC has that video. That video is where half of your delegates went – that video of Gellar’s fat fucking face telling the state legislature that they really don’t give a fuck about the date or the DNC but they are going to pretend to care instead and hope it works. Seriously, is it too much to fucking ask of your state Democrats to even try to follow the rules? Introduce a bill and actually work to get it passed. And if it fails, at least you can honestly say you tried, rather than pass off a series of lies on the voters of the state.
And you still come in here and blame it on the GOP even when the evidence, if you fucking cared enough to look at it would show clearly that the Dems didn’t even try. And the original bill to move the date, before it got merged with the bill for the property tax amendment? Introduced by a Dem.
So yes, Florida sucks if you people have your heads so fucking far up your asses that you can’t even manage to blame the people that created this problem when evidence is presented to you and instead insist on continuing to lie and blame everyone else. So yes, as a voter in a state that followed the rules for the betterment of the party even at the loss of campaign economic gain and notoriety, I personally say fuck you. And Florida doubly sucks that people outside of your state seem to be more pissed off than you are that your own representatives lied to you and disenfranchised you. Maybe you should all vote GOP since you seem to relish that kind of personal mistreatment.
Just Some Fuckhead
What is your point? You already said we can’t win Florida and the general election unless Obama drops out. Why all the interest now in his chances?
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
is Florida, as a state, worth all this trouble? first they hand the election to Bush in 2000 because a bunch of Floridians didn’t know how to punch a ballot, now they try to jump ahead in line and f**k everything up. maybe we should look into just dissolving the state and divvy it up between LA and GA.
Global warming will solve this problem. If sea level rises by 30 feet, how much of Florida is left to argue over? The mean elevation of the state is 100 feet. Seriously, why is global warming not THE ISSUE in Florida politics?
demimondian
Actually, you don’t realize how little you matter to me. You’re a self-important prick with an attitude, and your support doesn’t matter to me either way.
It’s not my job to coddle your ego, and, maybe, just maybe, by encountering someone who honestly doesn’t give a shit about you, except as a stationary target for rhetorical arrows, you’ll come to understand that you’re opinions don’t matter. Neither do mine, if it’s any consolation; that’s why we’re entitled to them.
The facts, by contrast, do matter, and that’s why we’re required to submit to a common set of them. In this case, the facts are pretty clear: your party screwed you, assuming it was to be big to spanked, and, lo and behold, found out that it wasn’t. The rest of the country doesn’t feel like you’re entitled to special consideration; other states, after all, resisted temptation, and their citizens shouldn’t be punished because you didn’t, now should they?
So fuck off.
Hillary’s End Game | Political Bloviation
[...] March 30th, 2008 by Sonny Balloon Juice That is her endgame. She needs the credential committee to seat the illegitimate delegates from Florida and Michigan. For all her bluster about the will of the people, this is all about back-room deals to subvert the will of the people. As she can not make up the popular vote and she can not make up the delegate count, this is what she has left. [...]
vwcat
The Democratic party really should talk to the press about reducing the coverage of Hillary. Take away the thing the Clintons crave the most – the spotlight and press coverage.
If the press covers the Clintons only 1/4 of what they do now then, maybe they will definitely get the hint.
I think the supers and party leaders will make a big push after the May 6th primaries as well.
Martin
What pisses me off to no end on this is that Florida Dems are attacking the very people that worked hardest to prevent this situation. Go over to DKos. They’re mainly Obama supporters. Why? Because for the last 4 years they have tirelessly pursued the 50 state strategy. Not 48. 50. They worked their asses off to get people like John Tester elected in Montana and Webb in VA and Bill Foster who took Hastert’s seat.
Go look at one of the running stories for the last few weeks:
Joe Garcia, Raul Martinez and Annette Taddeo all got invites to the Chef Allen’s fundraiser in Aventura. Beneficiaries of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee fundraiser: four incumbent Democratic House members from Arizona, Pennsylvania, Indiana and California.
That’s one of your fucking Florida Reps who didn’t lift a goddamn finger to try and preserve your delegates who won’t support Dems out of loyalty to her personal GOP friends. These are Obama supporters fighting for you and you people have the fucking nerve to come back and accuse us of screwing things up. The Obama supporters were the ones fighting for you in September and October writing letters and putting pressure on the state to not fuck this up. The Obama supporters have always been content with a revote, but you ungrateful pigfuckers instead slurp down Hillary’s shit about Obama blocking everything when he’s done nothing but raise concerns about the validity of the solutions (taught voting rights law, remember) and there’s clear evidence that Hillary has blocked a number of efforts such as a caucus and instead turning this not from a re-vote issue to a power play to get the delegates seated which is what is was all along.
So Hillary and Nelson have managed to support the DNC sanctions while turning Florida voters against Obama and making this out to not be the fault of FL/MI Dems but Obama instead.
Don’t believe me?
That’s from an interview with US News. She doesn’t want a revote. She doesn’t give a fuck if the people of Florida want one or the state party or the DNC. SHE doesn’t want one. She wants the delegates seated under a rule that her own campaign chair would have enforced:
So you want to blame this on Obama? The rule that her own chair would have enforced but is now unfair? That she is on record for not wanting a revote? And you want to blame Dean who offered 880K from the DNC to Florida to have a caucus on 2/5 or later and they told him no. (The DNC has never offered to pay for a caucus up-front before this offer.)
Just 5 days ago:
“We don’t see any need for that,’’ Singer said of negotiating. “There’s plenty of time to have re-dos.”
So, no need to talk about seating delegates, plenty of time for a revote (that Hillary is already on record of not accepting). They don’t WANT a revote. Get a fucking clue already, will you? And stop blaming the people that have worked the hardest to fix your fucking problem, alright?!
marjowil
there is nothing honorable about McCain. He will pander to anything, anyhow, anywhere, anyday, to appeal to anyone on any given day. He has broken his own campaign law. Backtracked on torture to take the Bush view. Bought and paid for by lobbyists, as always. Wants to, not only make permanent but, INCREASE the Bush tax cuts to the rich. People say he “might” not pick the next Thomas or Scalia, because he might be pretending to be conservative but really is moderate. Instead of being MORE conservative and pretending to be moderate.
I don’t want Clinton. But I also kind of like my reproductive freedom (such as it is), thank you.
Just Some Fuckhead
Well, how’s that been working out for everyone?
Missed this earlier but I thought I’d respond if for no other reason to correct the historical record:
Al Gore fought for the Presidency all the way to the Supreme Court where he was ruled against with no further recourse. So in fact Al Gore is a nice, decent completely above-ground Democrat who fought to the end for the Presidency and acted magnaminously when he was ruled against and conceded wonderfully. Is there a parallel there with HRC? I can’t see one.
Are you aware of some more fighting he could or should have done?
Just Some Fuckhead
THAT must be the threshhold he and HRC have crossed.
Pb
Regarding electability and Florida; Obama has a better shot at winning the Presidency than Hillary does. Florida is probably the most important state Hillary needs to win. For Obama, it’s more like #6, after New Jersey, believe it or not. And at the moment, McCain has a better shot at winning Florida than Hillary does, which hurts her a lot more than it hurts Obama, who has even less of a shot of winning Florida.
Just Some Fuckhead
Good link PB. God I love maps and stats.
Pb
Just Some Fuckhead,
Yeah, I love that site—poblano is a friggin’ genius. Regarding important states, check out the section under the maps labelled “Swing State Analysis“. Those are the states that are winning the election for each candidate in the simulations, along with the percentage of times that they do. (hence my statement about the importance of Florida, New Jersey, etc.)
Cain
We need Jack Nicholson to play you.
cain
Cain
Oops, it didn’t put in the [clap][clap][clap][clap]
cain
Gregory
For my part, I’ll vote for the Democratic nominee no matter who it is, but if Hillary gets the nod via these or other shennanigans, the Democrats won’t see a dime from me.
By the way, where’s Hillary’s alleged mastery of arcane rules when it comes to preventing the Republicans from blocking the Democratic agenda in the Senate?