Looked into the polls of the covenant. pic.twitter.com/UM3LJxKcAY
— Bob Schooley (@Rschooley) August 11, 2016
Yes. Yes it is.
The 2016 campaign is getting out of control https://t.co/1NFwrGEFAo
— John Scalzi (@scalzi) August 11, 2016
However you define political leadership Donald Trump is pretty much doing the exact opposite of it. https://t.co/6ZnCAdFprD
— Daniel Drezner (@dandrezner) August 11, 2016
… The problem is that Trump doesn’t really care about the truth value of his rhetoric. Rather, he uses such language at his rallies to whip up his supporters and generally promote the greater glory of Donald Trump. As Tom Friedman wrote Wednesday in the New York Times, this is the kind of loose talk that leads to violence…
Trump supporters might argue that he can’t be held personally responsible for the actions of his “passionate” followers. But the whole point of aspiring to political leadership is displaying the ability to channel people’s hopes, fears and concerns into productive action….The odds are excellent that, between now and November, Trump will say more inflammatory things that could inspire some nutcase to do something violent. And the odds are getting better that this campaign will get out of control and we’ll all be lucky to live through it.
Trump sounded an uncharacteristically fatalistic note, acknowledging the possibility he could lose in November https://t.co/WK2G5FcCpb
— NYT Politics (@nytpolitics) August 11, 2016
Facing one of the toughest stretches of his presidential campaign, Donald J. Trump has taken to responding to Hillary Clinton’s increasingly pointed questions about his fitness to serve in the Oval Office with exaggerated or outright false claims of his own about the threat she would pose as president.
Accused by Mrs. Clinton and by prominent figures within his own party of posing a unique menace if he were elected, and impeded by distractions of his own making, Mr. Trump has slid in public opinion polls, not only nationally and in battleground states but on almost every important question, from temperament to foreign policy knowledge to experience…
He pledged to “just keep doing the same thing I’m doing right now,” adding that he was the only presidential candidate who told things “straight” and was “a truth-teller.”…
Trump sounding increasingly resigned to humiliating electoral loss. Sad!
— Christopher Hayes (@chrislhayes) August 11, 2016
Honestly, it’d be easier to enjoy the whole mishegas if it weren’t for fear Deadbeat Donnie is trying to take the whole country down with him.
Trump to @SquawkCNBC: "all I do is tell the truth. If at the end of 90 days, I fall short that's OK. I have a very good way of life"
— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) August 11, 2016
The reality – as with many self-professed "straight talk" candidates, Trump gets angry when he is quoted saying what he is saying.
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) August 11, 2016
“Conservative, comms guy, campaign vet” –
1/ Ok, this shit's not funny anymore. Trump is threatening elected GOPers at all levels in places that haven't been competitive in decades.
— Matt Mackowiak (@MattMackowiak) August 11, 2016
5/ More fundamentally, the Trump campaign needs to discover the value of scarcity. Make Trump scarce. Fewer interviews. Shorter rallies.
— Matt Mackowiak (@MattMackowiak) August 11, 2016
9/ Where is the bottom? His floor appears to be 38%. His ceiling appears to be 42%. Hillary's range appears to be 44%-49%
— Matt Mackowiak (@MattMackowiak) August 11, 2016
14/ You can't overstate panic inside GOP currently. Lots of conversations taking place. More defections coming. Will they be before debate?
— Matt Mackowiak (@MattMackowiak) August 11, 2016
16/ Fear of losing makes candidates improve knowledge, strategy, discipline & performance. Can Trump possibly not be worried about losing?
— Matt Mackowiak (@MattMackowiak) August 11, 2016
20/ What does Trump care about, if he doesn't care about losing, doesn't care about the GOP, won't listen, won't learn, and won't improve?
— Matt Mackowiak (@MattMackowiak) August 11, 2016
What does Trump care about? Keeping the spotlight on Donald Trump, no more, no less. Any Repub “expert” who thought otherwise deserves what’s coming to them… and I truly hope that’s a historic cascade of losses at all levels of government.
Mnemosyne
So I made a room reservation at Disneyworld for next March, and it turns out that the only rooms I can use my discount for have 2 full-size beds. For 2 adults, a teenager, and a kid.
We’re all going to know each other a LOT better after this trip! ?
Iowa Old Lady
Hey, says Trump, those grapes were probably sour anyway.
Hal
I’m less worried about this than I was a week or two ago. It’s only August, so hopefully Hillary’s ceiling keeps rising.
germy
GOP to Trump: “Smile more, talk less.”
Schlemazel
Interesting. I clicked a link titled “Walter update” and got an error message. When I got back here is this shiny new thread
Baud
@Hal: Obama got 53% in 2008.
scav
Seriously who ever thought Trump cared about the the GOP, I mean, apart from those who fling themselves into the embrace of Nigerian Princes.
schrodinger's cat
@Schlemazel: I even made a comment, that got eated.
dmsilev
@Hal: She’s hit 50 or so percent in a few of the recent national polls. Could just be outliers, but we’ll see.
More importantly, mid-August is when the political science folks say the polls start to become reasonably predictive of the final result. Not fully dispositive, of course, but still a good sign.
Mnemosyne
@Schlemazel:
Cole probably didn’t want people to mock him for getting stomped. Walter will return once we use up this thread.
Ceci n'est pas mon nym
No, Matt, you’re wrong. It’s hilarious. Given the choice of watching democracy die or the Nihilist Party die in my lifetime, I’m going to go with the nihilists.
satby
Ohpleasepleaseplease let this be true.
jl
Trump is basically a con man. If he really cared about losing in real world contests and projects, that most people consider respectable, all that much, he would not have gong bankrupt so many times.
Trump cares about running a successful and continuing series of cons. He cares about putting up the appearance of winning so he can capture another flock of marks and dupes and suck the money out of them.
That is what Trump cares about.
Adam L Silverman
@Schlemazel: @schrodinger’s cat: Its scheduled for 8:30 PM.
jl
@satby: I don’t think it is funny either. I take it very seriously and hope Trump has the worst possible effect on the GOP.
I believe in political competition and debate is needed to run a modern society, so i believe in a two (or more) party system. But I don’t see any reason it has to be this two party system.
Hope Trump blows huge holes in the bottom of the debased and dishonest rump that is our current GOP, and it sinks. Something will coalesce to replace it.
MikeBoyScout
Somebody very close to where you are right now is not yet registered to vote in the November election.
We can make the change we believe in. We need your help.
If we all do our little bit we can win the whole kit and caboodle.
Yes.We.Can.
Please help move us forward. There’s a Democratic candidate at a state or local level who needs our help.
We can make the change we believe in.
This is OUR time.
Yes.We.Can.
Emma
@Mnemosyne: Some places will provide a folding bed. Sleeping bags work too.
Schlemazel
@schrodinger’s cat:
hows Walter?
schrodinger's cat
@satby: Victory dance. Too soon?
germy
@Schlemazel: See above thread.
schrodinger's cat
@Schlemazel: Doing well, has a ride and needs munnies.
mike in dc
@Hal:
It is rising, as Trump’s floor is falling. He’s about to drop below 40 on Real Clear Politics, and she’s about to go above 48. Obama outperformed the final polls by a few points.
Villago Delenda Est
If Drumpf winds up destroying the party of greedheads, fascists, militarists, and racist scum, I for one will not shed so much as a tear.
“Conservatism” itself needs to be annihilated.
Roger Moore
From Mackowiak’s tweet #7:
The simple answer is no. Trump is addicted to media attention, and if he doesn’t get it for more than a couple of days he’ll act up until the focus is back on him. It doesn’t matter that the attention is bad, that the stuff he’s doing to get it is self-destructive, or that he has to keep escalating the crazy to get back the spotlight. All that matters is getting his next fix.
WereBear
I had long hoped that Trump would go down hard, dragging the Party with him.
Pleasepleaseplease.
Anoniminous
It’s Thursday evening and Trump hasn’t insulted or threatened to kill anyone.
Sad.
Major Major Major Major
I had a from-home day because I had a doctor appointment this afternoon and it was by far the most productive day of the week. All said, I got out 14 lines of code in the can.
This election is weird. I don’t really know what to think right now.
Mnemosyne
@Emma:
I’m going to see if I can get them to switch me to a different place, but worst case scenario, we just make it adult+kid per bed.
It would actually be less of a problem if it was me and G taking them because I don’t mind snuggling up to the spouse, but I’m afraid I’m just too straight to enjoy snuggling with another woman. ?
rikyrah
Just dust.?
Not only for what he did, but they found one another in their 40’s.
Love- not just for the young. ??
ABC NewsVerified account
@ABC
92-year-old man surprises his 90-year-old wife with a serenade on 50th wedding anniversary.
Villago Delenda Est
Time is most definitely trolling Teh Donald. And he will rise to it. It’s as predictable as the sun rising in the East.
jl
@Roger Moore: Trump figures, if the ‘face’ act is bombing, try a spin as the ‘heel’. The pro wrestling act worked great for the GOP primary. If the likes of McConnell and Ryan weren’t con men too, they might be concerned about that, but they aren’t as long as one of the acts that they manage puts on the show.
If Trump can keep his GOP primary audience with a ‘heel’ act, what does he care? Probably make as much off it as he did with his steaks and vodka.
JPL
Donald Trump’s campaign and top Republican Party officials plan what one person called a “come to Jesus” meeting on Friday in Orlando to discuss the Republican nominee’s struggling campaign, according to multiple sources familiar with the scheduled sit-down.
hahaha link
OldDave
@Mnemosyne:
If Port Orleans Riverside is on your list, the Alligator Bayou rooms include a trundle bed that might work for the smallest. One of my favorites are the cabins at Fort Wilderness as they include a full kitchen.
satby
@schrodinger’s cat: I need to see that movie! Awesome!
jl
@Villago Delenda Est: Every major corporate media news organization will want to be attacked by Trump before this is over. Good cover not doing jack squat real reporting during the primaries. “What!? Look, Trump hates us, of course we did a good job covering him!” It’ll be easy for them, since all they have to do is a stunt like the Times cover, and Trump will take it as seriously as WWIII, No actually that is not correct. Trump will take it seriously as an insult on the twitter machine.
p.a.
Trump will have a great TV show come out of this- fortunately nothing more. Ratings will be yuge.
Major Major Major Major
@jl: there’s an outstanding (imo) song about a heel turn that I always think of now when I see the phrase.
Mnemosyne
@JPL:
This is where the RNC discovers that a narcissist is completely incapable of accepting blame for anything, at any time, and that Trump will refuse to listen to them.
Oh, to be a fly on the wall …
jl
@shomi: People are rightly worried about what a lone wolf nut case with guns might do. A major party candidate getting shot or shot at will be a very serious situation. The way Trump is talking, it could happen to HRC (ws with JFK, who was a target of similar talk by racists), or rebound to himself (as with George Wallace).
Mnemosyne
@OldDave:
I get a nice employee discount, but the downside of that is that I kind of have to take what’s offered. I’m going to keep checking back and see if I can switch to something better as the date gets closer.
dmsilev
@JPL: The only problem with the Trump campaign is Trump himself (OK, the _main_ problem with the Trump campaign is Trump himself), and short of a Clockwork-Orange-style brainwashing session, that’s not going to change in any substantive way.
Pogonip
@schrodinger’s cat: That was Walter. Poor guy’s still pretty hungry.
Villago Delenda Est
@dmsilev: The leopard cannot change his stripes. Nor can the tiger change his spots.
jl
@Mnemosyne: If the GOP wants to keep its con game going for the next election, it needs to convene its 15 or whatever member committee that dumps nominees, and just go through the process of dumping him. Even if he says he will do what they say, what difference does it make? Even if Trump thinks he means it when he tells them he will be good, what difference will it make? The guy has zero self-discipline.
Pogonip
@rikyrah: Awwww.
Dad missed his 68th wedding anniversary by one day.
Villago Delenda Est
@jl: His stint in a military boarding/”reform” school instilled no discipline in him. He’s never shown any his entire adult life…two ruined marriages, four, five, six? bankruptcies…to include a friggin’ casino!
p.a.
If this election plays out according to current trends, where do the rageaholics go next? They’ll blame the Repub Party structure for bailing on Trump. Will they stick to it? If not, what do their Pied Pipers do? Limbaugh, Hannity, Coulter; can they keep the pig people’s support by trashing whatever is left of the Republican Party and still earn a living off the wingnut welfare teat? Order your ‘smores ingredients now!
JPL
@dmsilev: The so called family values party, turned a blind eye when Trump spouted his birther stuff on Fox. I hope they are sucked down the bathtub drain, that Grover Norquist spoke about.
geg6
And today, of all days, Pat Toomey went all in for the Hair Furor. Says even his nuke talk is less dangerous than Emailghazi. He’s trying to lose now.
rikyrah
This is going to make a great mini-series on HBO:
After Ailes: ‘Friends of Roger’ exodus expected at embattled Fox News
August 10, 2016: 10:23 PM ET
excerpt:
Ailes is the only CEO Fox News has ever had. He launched the channel in 1996 and ran it as a fiefdom, grooming an entire generation of hosts, reporters and producers who feel indebted to him. He set the cultural tone of the place.
With Ailes deposed — one veteran staffer compared it to the sudden death of a Middle Eastern strongman — there is widespread uncertainty about the status of on- and off-air talent alike.
[…]
Meanwhile, there is a fresh focus on Ailes’ spending habits.
Ailes, through Fox News, employed a number of longtime friends as consultants, for purposes that remain unknown.
One of the consultants earned $10,000 a month by submitting a monthly invoice to Fox.
Sherman reported on Sunday that “one of the consultants, Bert Solivan, ran negative PR campaigns against Ailes’ personal and political enemies.” He said Solivan and four others were dismissed.
The names of the other “friends of Roger,” as they were known internally, were shared by a source on condition of anonymity.
schrodinger's cat
@satby: I haven’t seen it all of it yet. It does take some liberties with the actual history.Added bonus, this particular number raised the hackles of fusspot fundies in India. Priyanka Chopra is awesome as Kashibai and Ranveer Singh as Bajirao. Mastani played by Deepika Padukone felt a bit flat to me.
Ceci n'est pas mon nym
@geg6: Hello, fellow Pennsylvanian. That is very good news. I was a little concerned when I read a statement earlier that Toomey was statistically tied in the polls. He needs to go down at least as hard as Trump.
danielx
Per-zackly. The only thing Donald Trump cares about, in the end, is Donald Trump. If the Senate and House Republicans go down in flames right along with him, he will lose not a nanosecond of sleep and will be right on to setting up the Trump Network. Upon which platform he’ll be able to spew whatever gibberish comes into his empty head with no fear at all of getting locked up or getting his ass kicked, which is what would happen to him in any normal setting.
I’ve tried hard to understand how his life would change (for the worse) in any realistic way and damned if I can come up with anything at all. You can damn well expect that the one thing which the orange one spends any time thinking about right now (for more than five minutes at a stretch) is how he can monetize his time spent on campaigning.
Steeplejack
@Mnemosyne:
Can you get a roll-away cot in there? That’s how my family did it back in the day with dad, mom and three sons.
Felonius Monk
Truth of the matter is Trump is pretty much unfit to run Trump Inc. or whatever he calls it. And given that his children seem to indulge his every whim, they probably aren’t qualified to run it either.
mainmata
There are (or were) two GOPs: the national party and the state parties. The national party gradually went extinct after Citizens United and the explosion of independent PACs. The state GOP parties, by contrast, are alive and very thriving and busy everywhere destroying democratic governance and substituting autocracy, kleptocracy and other kinds of oppression. The national GOP has been replaced by billionaire bingo but the Confederacy and neo-Confederacy (including parts of the North and West) at the state level are busy changing things for the worse. If the federal government continues to be steadily weakened, we essentially slump into a version of the Articles of Confederation (at best). That’s also when we really stop being a serious world player.
rikyrah
I love this site:
A VOTE FOR JILL STEIN IS A VOTE IN THE TRASH
Dustin Seibert, 8/11/16
……………………………..
Michael Eric Dyson authored the definitive (if not petty as hell) ethering of West; that’s not what I’m here for. I plead that you don’t listen to West, or anyone else who would convince you to send your vote to Stein in November.
The Green Party has been bopping around in the U.S. for a little more than three decades now; it gained notoriety when presidential candidate Ralph Nader put a small wedge between Al Gore and George W. Bush in the 2000 presidential election (the first in which I was able to vote).
The oft-touted idea that Nader “stole” the election from Gore has been disproven. But he sure didn’t help matters in an election he couldn’t win. Stein is threatening the same interference for the 2016 election, which has higher stakes.
Folks aren’t riding for Stein or the Green Party and it’s Candy Land-ass platform because they’re impressed with either – they’re planning to throw their vote away on an “anyone-but-Clinton” play, which is misguided at best. Truth is, Stein could walk past my desk, grant me my 40 acres and a mule and I still wouldn’t know who the fuck she was. Put a picture of her alongside one of Clifton Powell, and I bet even White folks would recognize Powell first.
To be clear, I’m not Clinton’s number-one fan; many of her critics’ have valid points, and I certainly believe her presidency would usher in more status-quo bullshit. (My general sentiment on this election hasn’t changed.) But I don’t abide by the hyperbolic sentiment that she would, in any way, leave our country worse off than George W. Bush did, and I don’t give a shellacked shit about emails and servers. Despite protestations, no one really does.
I also recognize that there are scores of sexist troglodytes under the impression that a woman pushing 70 will somehow start World War III because of her “emotions,” leaving us all to walk blindly through the post-apocalyptic wasteland fighting bandits like Denzel in The Book of Eli. Those people should be taken as seriously as Trump voters.
Nominus
Screw Mackowiak and his ilk. If it weren’t for gerrymandering they would have had to be competitive long before now. They were underwater on their mortgage and didn’t listen to any warnings about what was coming. The rational world saw Trump for what he was long ago. Even if the Republicans saw it, they were so excited that he might beat Hillary that they overextended themselves again. They didn’t have the nerve to drop him even when the bug in the Edgar suit couldn’t keep up the act. Now that he’s exposed for the alien cockroach that he is, they’re looking for a way out and it isn’t going to happen.
sloan
“This shit’s not funny!”
Funny or not funny is in the eye of the beholder. You know, like assassination jokes.
mainmata
@jl: I think this is the key point: the vast majority of Republican politicians are con artists or grifters. The con is the constant and continual Orwellian messaging; freedom means oppressing minorities, women and immigrants. Economic growth means giving huge tax breaks to the ultra rich and destroying the social safety net that keeps many local economies afloat. But, the vast majority of the Base are members of the “willing ignorant” so it all works (until it doesn’t).
schrodinger's cat
@Pogonip: He does indeed look hungry, here’s hoping that one day he will get Tunchesque.
geg6
@Ceci n’est pas mon nym:
Oh yes! Where are you? I’m in far west Beaver County, about 30 miles northwest of the ‘Burgh. And Teahadi bastion.
rikyrah
Nick Hanauer
@NickHanauer
Polls show African American’s support of @realDonaldTrump approaches 0%, proving they are the only sane and intelligent voting block in USA.
laura
@Pogonip: my mom missed their 63rd by 2 weeks.
RK
If Trump wants to win he’s doing a phenomenal job of hiding it. C’mooooonnnn….
Alex
http://www.hughhewitt.com/donald-trump-makes-return-visit/
Might have been posted already.
Apparently Trump has been arguing that Hillary sleeping at home has been an issue for a while. I saw a quote from December and he repeated it in a stump speech today.
But yeah… Hillary is dangerous because she goes home and goes to sleep.
jl
@mainmata: McConnell and Ryan reveal themselves to be inept con men by trying to con the remaining sane GOPers by going with the ‘we support the anonymous GOP nominee, even though we denounce what he says that hits the papers and makes us look bad’. Which will fail and also shows what mediocre non-entities these goofus establishment GOP hacks are.
If they had any self respect and respect for the increasingly faded, increasingly distant, honorable history of their party, and concern for the country, they would not do that. They would separate themselves from the bigots, xenophobic jingoistic base, and start a center-right GOP. It would be a minority party for a couple of election cycles, it would be very hard work, and they would not get tons of easy corporate and billionaire money. So, they won’t go that route.
Mike J
@rikyrah:
Status quo bullshit like unemployment under 5%,rising wages, and record high Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P? Yeah, I’ll take that.
rikyrah
Sopan DebVerified account
@SopanDeb
Trump to WTVJ: “So we’ve done really well with Latinos and I employ thousands of Latinos.”
Mnemosyne
@Alex:
So Trump acts the way he does because of sleep deprivation?
I could almost see that, actually.
jl
@jl:Of course, a problem with reforming the GOP is that that at least a plurality of the GOP leadership, like Ryan, are not center-right conservatives, but radical reactionaries. Ryan is worse on economic policy than Trump is (on odd days, not on even days, Trump is so changeable hard to tell). Guys like McConnell will do and say anything to keep power and started out as a moderate. But Ryan is not. So, that is a big problem with the GOP reforming itself.
Hope the Trump damage is severe and disabling.
Mnemosyne
@Mike J:
FWIW, I think the status quo that website is more worried about is police shootings and racism, not the made-up right wing stuff.
jl
@Mnemosyne: I’ve read several places that Trump habitually stays up most of the night reading stuff in the media, fuming, and then tweeting BS and attacks. And retweeting bigots and racists.
Svoboda for all
<blockquoteThe oft-touted idea that Nader “stole” the election from Gore has been disproven
Oh, it was? Where can I find this information disproving this oft touted idea?
philadelphialawyer
@jl: Sad thing is they probably would still get plenty of corporate and billionaire cash. The Trump voters are not providing that. The downside is not the loss of funding, but of votes. Without the bigots, xenophobes and jingoists, how does Ryan ever win anything bigger than a Congressional district? Without those votes, how does the GOP hold on to governorships? How do they win enough to districts to control State legislatures? The GOP voter base is, I’m guessestimating, half Trumpian, one quarter “Establishment” and one quarter “Movement” conservative. They can’t make it work at the ballot box with only half of their current strength. Particularly as they are already dangerously dependent on severe gerrymandering.
rikyrah
lips pursed:
Jeremy DiamondVerified account
@JDiamond1
Trump slams Obama for commuting too many prison sentences. Then: “These people are out. They’re walking. The streets. Sleep tight, folks.”
philadelphialawyer
@Mike J:Don’t forget less than two per cent inflation, no major wars, and millions more folks with health insurance.
Ceci n'est pas mon nym
@geg6: Philadelphia. We’ve chatted about PA before. I was formerly using “Randy P” until all of a sudden that name for some reason got blocked. So I switched to this one, which means “This is not my nym” and is sort of a pun on the title of a Magritte painting. I hate thinking up nyms and I’m no good at it, but I’m starting to get fond of this one.
jl
@philadelphialawyer: Nationally, they would have to live with being minority party for several election cycles. It would be very hard work, dedication to responsible government according to a responsible ideology, and take very capable people. Won’t happen.
But they would still run quite a few state governments, wouldn’t they? It think so. So, the corporate cash would still flow to the state parties.
rikyrah
Ari Berman
@AriBerman
NC GOP now trying to cut early voting in Charlotte’s Mecklenburg County, largest in state
philadelphialawyer
@jl: I agree that it would be hard work, and that they would be in the minority nationally. I don’t think, though, that there would be any economic hardship, at any level, for the Ryans of the world, even if they did do the right thing. The rich and the corporations are always going to want to have one party, at least, totally in their corner. And so the think tanks, the contributions, the soft landings, the “independent” PACs, the lobbying jobs, and the RW media, in all its forms, would retain its extravagant funding. Ryan might never be speaker again, but he could be minority leader of a party that doesn’t cause him to hide his face from the mirror in the morning (assuming he has a conscience, at all), AND still not only not suffer financially, but continue to ride the gravy train.
SFAW
@dmsilev:
You do remember that the Ludovico technique failed in the end, right?
SFAW
@Villago Delenda Est:
Oh, bullshit, of course you will.
Because you’ll be laughing so hard at the Rethugs and Deadbeat Donnie.
Betsy
@JPL: didn’t they do that a couple of weeks ago, already? Haha haha
Ken
@jl:
Oh, sure, that’s what he says. I bet the reality is closer to “Can’t sleep, clown will get me, can’t sleep, clown will get me…”
Cermet
If Georgia turns Blue (and demographics are pushing in that direction) combined with Virginia becoming deeper Blue, with North Carolina following (more slowly), the days of the thugs being a national party are basically over. The democrats will be forced to deal with even a greater diversity of groups and that will be difficult – the ‘Burn’ movement will grow stronger. IN the near time frame, I’d think the dems fragment into two distinct parties.
Central Planning
@Nominus:
Heh!