I was thinking it would be fun to have a Republican primary dead pool. Pick the order in which the candidates drop out of the race. I’ll go with:
1. Santorum
2. Jindal
3. Graham
4. Christie
5. Huckabee
6. Pataki
7. Bush
8. Fiorina
9. Carson
10. Paul
11. Cruz
12. Kasich
13. Trump
14. Gilmore
With Rubio as the winner.
What’s yours?
Jerzy Russian
Your list seems as likely as any of the other 1.3 trillion possibilities.
ETA: This would be an interesting Monte Carlo simulation. They are all losers, but some are bigger losers than others and as such are more likely to be near the top than the bottom. So the number of realistic lists is probably much less than the 15!=1.3 trillion given above.
Facebones
I think Bush has too much money and too little self-awareness to drop out that soon.
Gin & Tonic
Gilmore lasting until the end? It’s too early in the day to be drunk, so there has to be another reason for that pick.
EconWatcher
Nice list:
Jeb? dropping off midway sounds about right.
Having Gilmore hang in until the end is a nice touch. No one’s heard of him, so why would he drop out? It’s pretty much the same as being in.
But Rubio seems awfully callow as a nominee. I’m trying to remember the last time the GOP went for youthful exuberance at the top of the ticket, and I’m drawing a blank.
I’m thinking somehow, someway they’ll be smart enough to get Kasich at the top of the ticket. Clearly their best play. And say what you will, they’ve mostly been ending up with their best play–such as it is–at the top of the ticket.
amk
it will be a final cage fight donald dreck and dumbya. others will be killed.
Elizabelle
My question: how late can one wait to file as a GOP candidate? Not thinking so much about Romney, but maybe we need another comedian or two in the mix.
Jack Welch? Any other Republican icons out there with a lot of time on their hands?
James Gilmore may be showing the way.
Betty Cracker
1. Pitaki
2. Gilmore
3. Graham
4. Santorum
5. Christie
6. Jindal
7. Carson
8. Paul
9. Fiorina
10. Kasich
11. Rubio
12. Cruz
13. Huckabee
14. Trump
With Bush as the winner, then Bush picks Kasich as his running mate and the Clinton-Castro ticket kicks their asses.
Mingobat f/k/a Karen in GA
Is that all of them? I thought there were at least 20 or 30 more.
Jim, Foolish LIteralist
@Facebones: and has to face Barbara if he drops out .
Christ, so many delusions in that list. I’m gonna say the next out is Pataki, then Gilmore, then Graham, who was only running to protect the world from Rand Paul’s sorta-isolationism. Then… Jindal (after Iowa), Carson, Christie ( post-NH, unless some bridge news takes him out sooner), Paul, Cruz, Huckabee, (post- South Carolina) Florina, Kasich, Santorum (a true believer) Rubio and Jeb? still wins.
ETA: Huck, pauls and Cruz stick it out till So Caro, just because)
TheMightyTrowel
Ok I’ll play this game. What do we get if we win?
1. Christie
2. Jindal
3. Pataki
4. Santorum
5. Carson
6. Huckabee
7. Gilmore
8. Graham
9. Paul
10. Fiorina
11. Cruz
12. Bush
13. Rubio
14. Trump
With Kasich as the winner.
Elizabelle
@EconWatcher: Yeah, that worries me too, because Kasich might have some crossover appeal, if word of his more conservative actions does not get out.
And don’t count on knob-slobbering media wired for Republicans to carry anyone’s water there. They adore the elusive “moderate” Republican, and loves them some favorable tax treatment for their corporate owners.
I think Kasich has been playing the long game, very smartly so far.
Amir Khalid
@Gin & Tonic:
Gilmore has filed a candidacy but doesn’t seem to be actually running. At his level of campaign activity, his funding will last to eternity.
GregB
@EconWatcher: youthful exuberance.
Have you forgotton Bob Dole and John McCain.
Amir Khalid
@Jim, Foolish LIteralist:
Isn’t Jeb’s Ma already furious about his inept campaigning?
Joel
Graham
Pataki
Christie
Jindal
Santorum
Huckabee
Carson
Fiorina
Kasich
Cruz
Rubio
Bush
Paul
Gilmore
Donald Berlusconi wins the GOP nom.
Jim, Foolish LIteralist
@Elizabelle: I think Kasich’s Achilles heel is, unlike most R’s and his imitator Paul Ryan, he’ll stick to his guns on Social Security privatization. I could be wrong, but he strikes me as almost messianic on that. And he has a big, clumsy mouth (I care about Hispanics! Tip your hotel maid!)
GregB
I could have sworn Gilmore was executed in 1977.
yellowdog
@Amir Khalid: Why would he campaign? No one would show up and it would be embarrassing.
EconWatcher
@Elizabelle:
Agree with all you said.
Kasich has been saying things that don’t wash with the Koch Brothers and the base.
But maybe he can make a convincing case at least to the donors and power-brokers:
“Hey, you got Mitt to dance like a marionette for you during the primaries and renounce everything that would have given him moderate cred in the general election. How did that work out for you?
I’m saying what has to be said to win. So pony up, or buckle in for eight years of Hillary.”
I’d say that’s his best play.
Jeffro
@Amir Khalid:The Post had an unintentionally (ok, perhaps intentionally) funny article about Gilmore and his non-campaigning campaign
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/campaigns-start-too-early-well-not-jim-gilmores/2015/09/07/f9c3bf72-556f-11e5-8bb1-b488d231bba2_story.html
And as you said, no reason why he can’t campaign right up until the convention. He’ll be the cherry atop the surreal sundae that is the GOP primaries.
Major Major Major Major
Nobody, nobody!
Nobody
Suddenly they embrace whoever Rubio leaves behind.
It’s gonna be him or Jeb!
gogol's wife
Have fun, y’all, but it’s going to be Bush/Rubio. Yawn.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
I don’t have any special insight to do a ranking, but I assume the people currently unemployed, or independently wealthy, will stick around as long as possible. People who have other jobs who are laggards in the polls or the voting will be gone by Super Wednesday if not sooner.
So, Jindal, Christie, Graham, Cruz will drop out fairly early to try to not be tarred too much with “loser stink” and keep their options for the future. They actually have to try to govern (or give the appearance).
I expect Fiorina, Carson, and probably Paul to stick around as long as they they still have positive cash flow. But doesn’t want to stick around too long or risk losing his “serious alternative for the future” image in some quarters.
Huckabee, Gilmore, Pataki are just going through the motions for some reason. Well, Huckabee is a zealot and has nothing else to do, so he is different, so maybe nothing short of a heart attack will drive him out.
Bush probably needs to stick around until the delegate numbers aren’t there any more. If he can’t win now, it’s hard to see him doing better in 2020 or 2024. Kasich could run again later.
Trump is the wild card, of course. I expect him to implode at some point, but it may take something like a new Daisy ad from the Democrats to make that happen.
The Teabaggers should just cut out the middle-man and just run John C. Calhoun / Tim Calhoun 2016!
:-/
Cheers,
Scott.
Betty Cracker
@gogol’s wife: Can’t be — both are from FL.
RSA
@Jerzy Russian:
And given the unlikelihood that anyone will be exactly right, the hard problem is deciding which “wrong” list is best. Me, I’d go with the best showing on all n(n-1)/2 pairwise orderings, but it’s also reasonable to think that some predictions are more important than others.
Jim, Foolish LIteralist
@Betty Cracker: and I think at this point they really don’t like each other
Germy Shoemangler
@GregB:
Campaign slogan: “Let’s do it.”
Belafon
I bet the Pope would be a formidable debate opponent. He included this in his speech this morning regarding climate change:
EconWatcher
@gogol’s wife:
I certainly would have agreed a month ago, but I’m just not seeing it in the Jebster. He has the stink of fail all over him.
Sure, there’s plenty of time for him to recover. But I’m not seeing the talent.
And Trump seems to have made it his mission to deny the nom to Jeb. Trump won’t get himself nominated, but he might have the juice to deny it to Jeb.
Jeffro
I don’t really have an order in which they’ll drop out, but a few things seem very likely to me, and I have a couple of questions…
Likely: over the next month, I think we will see Jindal, Santorum, Pataki, Christie, and Paul drop out. I still believe Graham will drop out the day after Paul does.
Also likely: either Carson or Trump will withdraw by Thanksgiving. Part of that is just playing the odds; part of it is the nature of their support & supporters.
Final five “contestants” come January, if I had to guess? Rubio, Cruz, Bush, Carson, and Kaisch.
Questions:
1) Will be interesting to see who gets most of Fiorina’s and Christie’s support once they drop out…I’m thinking most of that goes to Rubio, Kaisch, and Bush? (i.e., not Cruz or Carson)
2) Same with Trump…will he be a Kaisch guy or…?
3) Wondering when Mitt will jump in and endorse someone, and if it’ll be Rubio or someone else?
Paul W.
Santorum is the only one used to running a shoestring budget, so that already obliterates your list. Here’s what I got
1. Pataki
2. Graham
3. Christie
4. Gilmore
5. Jindal
6. Huckabee
7. Carson
8. Paul
9. Trump
10. Fiorina
11. Santorum
12. Rubio/Cruz
13. Bush (winner)
CONGRATULATIONS!
Interesting you have ¿JEB? bailing out so early. I tend to agree. I still maintain that he does not want this.
Hope you’re wrong about a Rubio/Kaisch ticket, that’s the second worst result that could have come from this primary (first would have been Walker/Kaisch). I’m hoping the completely unelectable Fiorina is on the end ticket, but doubt we’ll see that happen. She’s no Palin.
ETA: I think if Romney were to jump in that he’d win the thing. And maybe the general as well. He’s far more formidable than the current crop of sure-bet losers.
eric
@Elizabelle: I think there is little doubt that Rand Paul throws his hat in the ring. Oh, wait, he is running? Funny that.
gogol's wife
@Germy Shoemangler:
LOL.
I loved that scene in NYPD Blue, as Sipowicz was about to get married, and Bobby said, “Let’s do it,” and Andy said, “That’s what the guy in Utah said.”
gogol's wife
@Betty Cracker:
You think they won’t find some way to get around that?
Sloegin
With few exceptions, it’s always the guy you least like snagging the nomination. Until he flamed out, Walker was the man. Now all signs point to Cruz.
SWKELLOGG
Rubio?
Why do so many people think Dondi will be the pick?
Matt McIrvin
Gilmore wins and funds a new Manhattan Project to build a bomb that leaves buildings standing but destroys car taxes.
Amir Khalid
@Jeffro:
That’s the funniest 2016 presidential campaign story I’ve read.
Tweaked that for ya.
@GregB:
I doubt that James Gilmore is related to Gary Gilmore (and Gary’s brother Mykel T., who used to write for Rolling Stone).
eric
@Sloegin: bring on joe lieberman!
Debbie
@gogol’s wife:
The GOP could use a Sipowitz about now.
jayackroyd
1. Santorum
2. Christie
3. Graham
4. Pataki
5. Jindal
6. Huckabee
7. Gilmore
8. Fiorina
9. Paul
10.Carson
11. Rubio
12. Kasich
13. Trump
14.Cruz
Bush
benw
Where’s Romney dropping out? Cause you know he’s surprise running in a minute!
Sourmash
Next to go has got to be Jindal, he’s got zero traction and he’s running a traditional campaign that needs real money and none is coming in, so he’s done.
Foghorn Leghorn Graham is also going nowhere and has no money coming in, so he and John McCain will announce his suspension together. Set your TiVo
(Halloween)
Paul the Lessor will be s urprise to go next, but I think his heart’s not in this and he’ll be happy to walk with his millions.
The Huckster will be next, fulminating about how this country is not the country he knew (praise the Lord for that!) and that we’ve let him down, but he’s got confidence in the best Republican… and he’ll break down in sobs and have to be helped from the stage. You won’t need to TiVo that one, it will be on heavy rotation forever.
(Thanksgiving)
Christie will continue to crater and in his traditional campaign, he runs out of money and drops out, possibly before Christmas.
Carson peaks then collapses.
Fiorina melts under the hot lights as it becomes increasingly evident she’s got no ground game in Iowa or NH and the polls firm up there after the First of the year. Lack of ground game attributed to word getting out she treats her staff like shit.
Pataki is out somewhere here. The first of the non-traditional campaigners.
Cruz. I know, a surprise, but he doesn’t place in Iowa or NH and he’s gone.
Santorum wins Iowa, loses badly in NH and his low cost non-traditional campaign folds.
Gilmore (wild card, could be anywhere here)
Rubio drops out without winning a single primary.
Kasich suspends after coming in third in the last three way primary.
Bush takes the nom since he’s still got plenty of dough after the R voters survey the wreckage.
Trump never does drop out, he just rails and fulminates and fights all the way to the convention. “Raucous” doesn’t come close to describing what happens in Cleveland. His delegates are True Believers, holding up those “Fence” signs that they use at Football games as in “D”-“(cardboard cut out of a “fence”)” but with “Trump” written on them. He’ll dial up whatever he has to dial up to get it to “11” and keep it there. He’ll have a prime speaking slot or there will be fist fights on the floor, the worst angels of our nature will be let loose to stalk the land, roving bands of young men in “Trump” shirts hounding any brown skinned people, especially workers, in the Arena demanding to see their “papers”. Coverage of this by TV nets will be non-existent since the first person who tries to film it will be attacked and mauled worse than the poor maintenance guy who they’re hounding. It’s going to get very, very ugly, resembling Chicago 1968, but on the inside.
At least, that’s my prediction.
Belafon
@Sourmash: Maybe his supporters can hold up a “T” with a picture of someone’s ass.
Peale
@EconWatcher: W was “youthful exuberance.” It’s hard to remember 1999, but the Boomers were still considered to be too young and immature for the serious business of ruling that it was decided that Cheney would be there to supervise things from his Silent Generation perch.
JPL
MSM will decide the order of those that drop out. Carson has been on the receiving end of negative press, so I see him leaving soon.
Cervantes
@Betty Cracker:
That’s not an impediment.
The rule is: Electors representing any given (“home”) state cannot vote for both a president and vice president from that (“home”) state.
If you do the Electoral College math, here’s what you conclude: Suppose (1) Bush and Rubio are the ticket and (2) they win Florida’s 29 electoral votes. So long as their overall margin of victory nation-wide is 15 or more electoral votes, they’re in like Flynn.
Obama could have had a running-mate from Illinois in either 2008 or 2012 and, given the electoral-vote tally we saw, the same-state thing would not have mattered.
Still, it is a risk a candidate might not want to take.
Amir Khalid
@Sourmash:
Will they be holding hands?
Eric U.
I see a couple of reasons for John Bush to drop out early. One is if he is embarrassing Barb with his pathetic early performance. The other is if she dies, or GHWBush dies. It would surprise me if Barb dies, evil lives forever. GHWB though, he’s not quite evil enough to have an unnaturally long life.
Omnes Omnibus
@Peale: Cheney is only five years older than W (1941 and 1946).
CONGRATULATIONS!
@Sourmash: I could totally see it playing out that way. Depends mostly on how quickly Trump gets bored.
WaterGirl
@Sourmash: That was a fun read.
Amir Khalid
@Peale:
But in 1999, Bill Clinton, who is the same age as W, had been President for six years.
Brachiator
This looks like fun
1. Santorum
2. Jindal
3. Graham
4. Christie
5. Huckabee
6. Pataki
7. Gilmore
8. Carson
9. Trump
10. Paul
11. Fiorina
12. Cruz
13. Kasich
14. Bush
With Rubio as the winner.
Trump may jump a little earlier, but Bush has the cash to stay in the race well past his sell-by date. Ultimately, I think the money boys will think that Rubio has a better chance of picking up Latino voters, and has youth on his side, fueling dreams of a new era of the GOP keeping the White House for years to come. You might see Kasich as a VP pick, and Cruz as Attorney General if the Republicans win the White House.
Peale
@Amir Khalid: @Omnes Omnibus: 1941 and 1946 are different generations. Do you see Dick Cheney ever digging the Beatles?
Also, too…the whole point of running those “hillary is a bra burning feminist radical and bill a draft-card burning pot smoking hippy” was to remind conservatives that they have always been the serious patriots while those liberal hippies have never grown up. Just because Bill won doesn’t mean he wasn’t a kid…the republicans made this little stink about wearing grown-up clothes in the oval office again when W took power. No more shirt sleeves and pierced ears on men. They were restoring “dignity” by playing dress up, like most people who are concerned with dignity do.
john b
@Jerzy Russian: It wouldn’t be much of a Monte Carlo. It would just be in order of whatever “loser” value you gave to each candidate. If they somehow were inter-dependent, then it might be interesting.
Jeffro
@jayackroyd: I would probably have to quit my job, just so I could watch wall-to-wall coverage of that final three there. Trump, Cruz, and Bush, holy cow.
CONGRATULATIONS!
@Eric U.: They could put “here lies the last decent Republican” on his headstone and not have it be a total, complete lie.
And yeah, I think that would get ¿JEB? to drop. And that could happen. The old guy is not in good shape.
Tokyokie
@5490288″>I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: E@
Except that Cruz’s method of executing the duties of his elected office is to not to perform them. I’m thinking he sticks around until nearly the end in hopes of picking up the Trump supporters
Omnes Omnibus
@Peale: No, I don’t see Cheney as a Beatles fan, but plenty of people born in 1941 were. There isn’t a magical line between generations.
srv
There is a pool of cuckservatives and there is a real conservative. The order in which that pool dries up is irrelevant as long as the real conservative is left standing.
In other news, Joementum dark matter splashes Hillary’s pool
The longer he keeps this up, the more he hurts the Dems chances when he drops out. Go Joe, Go!
trollhattan
Will need to ponder this a bit. What makes it impossible to do logically are the vanity candidacies who are in it for the camera time and boot-licking from True Believers. i.e., Huckabee.
MattF
@john b: I suppose it could get interesting if you add delegate counts. Or a deadlocked convention. Otherwise it really just comes down to picking the survivor.
Cervantes
@Peale:
As you know, Cheney and Bush — and, for that matter, Clinton and Gore — all famously had to deal with the war in Vietnam. (Only Gore served there, as an army journalist.)
Thinking of Cheney and Bush as being a generation apart does not seem realistic.
yellowdog
@gogol’s wife: Well, it is only the Constitution, so not really a concern for the GOP. But Bush would have to move to a new state. Rubio can’t move as he is a currently ‘serving’, i.e. taking up space, senator.
Jeffro
@SWKELLOGG:
For me, it is a combination of the following:
– Trump’s and Carson’s high improbability of being the nominee…they’re just too nuts, and eventually the non-Trump, non-Carson parts of the party will coalesce around a single candidate
– the “kids’ table” candidates are obviously going nowhere…their bases are already well covered by other “adults’ table” candidates
– Perry and Walker are already out
– Cruz, Bush, and Rubio are getting pretty good PAC$$$ support…but a lot of the party hates Cruz, and Bush has looked weak/dumb
– Christie and Fiorina have significant downsides (Bridgegate/bullying, HP-burying/”demon sheep”) as the top of the ticket
– Kaisch is too moderate to head the ticket
– Paul is erratic, isolationist, and not well liked inside the party
– Huckabee is a 1-trick pony…and several other candidates can get solid religious-right support come next November
Rubio is financially well-supported, is Hispanic, is young, and covers both the GOP’s Tea Party and religious right bases. He’s also fully on board with continuing the GOP’s pro-big business and pro-billionaire ways.
That’s why – it doesn’t mean Rubio is smart, poised, thoughtful, or anything like that. It just means he’s the least bad choice who can also potentially pull the party’s bases together. As a bonus, he can also make the new vs. old, anti-dynasty argument against Clinton better than most (especially Bush)
Bobby Thomson
@Jim, Foolish LIteralist: Kasich’s Achilles heel is that outside of New Hampshire and the beltway, no one likes him.
equs_1776
@Sourmash: Looks likely to me! can see a few of the more fanatical or hopeless ones holding out longer. My hope is an open convention, after the first vote: rules, what rules? With TAC squads on call.
Amir Khalid
@Omnes Omnibus:
Besides, Cheney is in the Beatles’ age cohort: John and Ringo were born in 1940.
yellowdog
@Sourmash: Paul can’t drop out before the KY primary because he has already forced the state party to pay beaucoup bucks for a separate primary/convention/caucus because by state law he cannot run in the senatorial and pres primary on the same ballot. If he quits before then his career in KY is finished.
Tom Q
I have to say I’m startled so many people are sticking with “it’s going to be Jeb”. Not saying it’s not a possible outcome, but holding so firm to it suggests an imperviousness to evidence that rivals our Beltway press. It’s not just that the crazy-faction seems consistently bigger this time around than last. It’s that Bush has shown himself to be a godawful candidate (his father was JFK by comparison) whose body language suggests he doesn’t even want the hassle of running, and that his poll numbers are WAY worse than Romney’s 4 years ago, for those clinging to that analogy.
Since I’d have already lost my shirt betting on this — I’d have had Walker lasting till top 5, at least — I won’t try a strict-order guess. But it’s hard to imagine a whole bunch of them — The kids’ table debaters — lasting past Iowa. I see Rubio, Cruz, Bush, Fiorina being among the last, with Trump a total wild card: he could find a way to leave even prior to voting, or he could continue to confound by staying in and winning. If he does do a quick fade, I say Cruz picks up his banner. I’ve always felt people are too dismissive of Cruz: he fills the same satisfy-the-base-id function as Trump, but with (marginal) credentials — i.e., he’s been elected to something.
catclub
@Amir Khalid:
I think this will be the case for Santorum and Huck, also. Santorum lasted the entire race last time.
There is evidence (small donors) that Cruz can last the whole race.
If somebody clinches does that mean all the others drop out – or that the race is over and they were still left in at the last, because
that is what I see. There will be some hanging around at the time whoever clinches, and if nobody clinches until the convention,
even more will come in — This is Mitt’s plan now.
catclub
@Tom Q:
I agree.
Just Some Fuckhead
Hard to say now that money has been separated from popularity. One’s money can hold out much longer than one’s poll numbers. However I do agree that Rubio will be the likely nominee.
lonesomerobot
No way Paul drops out until after the Kentucky primary, not after forcing the state party to change their rules to suit him.
If Trump wins, Cruz will run 3rd party because his ego is unabashedly unstoppable, with a side of unflappable. Only slightly kidding.
Eric
1. Sanity
2. Decency
3. Reality
4. Does it matter?
tazj
@SWKELLOGG: He’s received a lot of positive press from the last debate and though I’ve never been impressed by his interviews or speeches many pundits and political writers have. I believe he’ll have some crossover appeal because of his relative youth and good looks. Yes, I do know some middle aged women(white, of course) who swooned over his speech at the 2012 Republican convention.
I really don’t know who on the Republican side will come out on top at the end but the two candidates I think would present the greatest challenge for the Democrats are Kasich and Rubio. They both have the ability to appear moderate even though neither one of them is. I think that Sanders or Clinton could beat them in a debate but would the media call it that way.
I think that Trump is getting exhausted at this point. Carson’s interviews as of late have gotten more absurd. Jeb just seems tired and not really into it. I can envision Fiorina being picked as a VP but don’t see her winning at this point.
lonesomerobot
All I really want is a brokered convention with a right nasty floor fight, though.
low-tech cyclist
1. Graham
2. Christie
3. Pataki
4. Paul
5. Huckabee
6. Kasich
7. Gilmore
8. Santorum
9. Jindal
10. Bush
11. Fiorina
12. Trump
13. Carson
14. Rubio
With Cruz as the winner.
I think Graham will be first out because he’s zeroing out in the polls, and has a reasonably prestigious day job to return to. Christie next because running for President is what’s making his scandals nationally famous, and he hasn’t been above 4% in a poll since the beginning of June. Pataki will eventually get a clue that nobody’s paying attention. (Gilmore will take a bit longer.) Paul and Huckabee will run out of money to stay in nice places on the road, and will pack it in after they do terribly in Iowa. Kasich will drop out after losing in NH. Gilmore will finally get a clue around that time. Santorum will drop out after SC; Jindal will hang in there a bit longer because he really doesn’t want to have to deal with Louisiana’s problems.
When he’s still way behind after Super Tuesday, Bush will get tired of the humiliation, and punt, leaving Rubio as the last Establishment candidate standing. Everybody else will go all the way to the convention, with Cruz ultimately winning, and the other four ranked in terms of the number of delegates who vote for them on the first ballot, treating a lower vote total as an earlier drop out.
schrodinger's cat
Bobo too has been pimping Rubio. I don’t see it, though. He is a light weight, being Cuban is not going to automatically endear him to Latinos or immigrants in general. I have no insight into the GOP crazy so I will refrain from making predictions.
catclub
@benw: Yep. He is there at a brokered convention if no one clinches. He will claim all the others are so incompetent that they cannot even win primaries. And it will be true.
schrodinger's cat
@lonesomerobot: That should be fun. MSM will love it too!
schrodinger's cat
Romney to the rescue on his white horse? Is Rafalca white?
catclub
My only prediction is that Graham will stay in to hammer Rand Paul, as long as Rand is there, so is Graham.
Carly might do the same with Hillary.
lonesomerobot
@schrodinger’s cat: No but Ann definitely is.
trollhattan
Oopsie, Marco.
phein39
H’mmm. I don’t think we’ve got the complete list just yet. Just the other day, ISIS announced that they are going to issue gold-based currency. Let’s see: strict religious conservatism, misogyny, hatred of Iran, and now the gold-standard. I’m pretty sure their next move will be to announce a candidate for the GOP nomination.
catclub
@Cervantes:
So, in the case of less than 15 margin, the electors from Florida could ditch the VP and the Democratic VP wins? That would be VERY interesting.
NonyNony
@Brachiator: If Bush makes it to the end, he’s the nominee. The Bush Machine will guarantee it. And last time Santorum didn’t drop out until May, so I doubt he’s the next to go (he was a lost cause in ’12 as well and that didn’t stop him – he’s in this race not because he thinks he can win, but because he thinks he should. As long as he can run his campaign on a shoe-string, he’ll stay in).
I don’t think my list is remotely close to what reality will be – if I could predict the future this far out I’d be doing something else with my life – but I think based on the reasons that they’re running and when their money will dry up, the following list is at least not horrible. And contra a lot of other people here, I don’t think we get many more dropouts before Iowa – we usually don’t and I don’t see why we should get a lot more this time around. Perry and Walker both seem to have severely mismanaged campaigns (for different reasons – Perry because he underestimated how reticent people would be to give him money from his performance in ’12 and Walker because he seems to be a particularly horrible manager and horribly mismanaged his campaign.) We might get one or two more before Iowa, but I wouldn’t expect more than that.
(Out by the end of the Iowa caucuses)
Jindal
Huckabee
(out by the end of New Hampshire)
Christie
Fiorina
Kasich
Pataki
(out by the end of SC)
Graham
(out by the end of Super Tuesday)
Paul
Carson
Trump
Bush (Trump stays in the race until Jeb! drops out, regardless of how he’s doing in the polls, just to be on stage with him and snipe)
(sticks in the race until the bitterest of ends)
Rubio
Gilmore (Gilmore is clearly in the race for his own reasons and is spending nothing to be there – no reason not to just stick with it)
(final nominee)
Cruz (with Bush chosen as his VP to placate the moneyed interests, allowing history to repeat itself as farce)
Joel
@Tom Q: Bettors favor Jeb, too. He has a lot of advantages that he hasn’t used yet. This is the same stuff with the handwringing about Clinton’s early campaign. These folks have seasoned staffs. They know that the game doesn’t get going until the New Year.
That said, I’m going with Trump as a black swan event.
Cervantes
@catclub:
There are other possible work-arounds, untested in the courts.
RL Harrngton
I will go out on a limb and say they will all stay in and we will have a brokered convention aka cluster fuck
Amir Khalid
@trollhattan:
I’m not sure if a guy this clueless is going to be the last one standing in this nomination contest.
Helen
I don’t really care. They all seem the same to me. What I really think will happen is a brokered convention in Cleveland. The RNC will Calvinball Trump out, his supporters will go nuts, and it will make Chicago 1968 look like picnic. Say what you want about Tom Hayden and Abbie Hoffman; at least they weren’t packing.
Sourmash
@WaterGirl: Thanks! That’s high praise coming from you!
MattF
The problem, really, is that they are all delusional. A traveling circus of sociopathy. So, giving reasons for what the R candidates will do is a category error. Reasons? Ha ha.
Dolly Llama
1. Graham
2. Jindal
3. Pataki
4. Christie
5. Santorum
6. Fiorina
7. Carson
8. Paul
9. Cruz
10. Kasich
11. Huckabee
12. Rubio
13. Bush
Trump as the winner.
I left Gilmore off, because I’m not sure he’s actually in it now.
Betty Cracker
@Omnes Omnibus: Wow. I’d never given any particular thought to Cheney’s age, but I guess I’ve always thought of him as much older than GWB too. Like many monsters, he has a timeless quality.
Calouste
Not necessarily in order:
1) Pataki, Gilmore: no clue when they will drop out because they are not actually campaigning.
2) Christie, Jindal: not going anywhere much, got a day job, and can still run in 2020 or later. Probably out before the end of the year.
3) Kasich: like the two above, but he’s already 62 so this is pretty much his last chance. Will make it to Iowa, but out before Super Tuesday.
4) Paul, Huckabee: grifters gotta grift. Most of the Southern states, where they both can be expected to pick up some votes, are early, meaning they are proportional and they will have something to show for. At least until March 15, the start of the winner-takes-all primaries, or even April 26, the first big batch after that.
5) Carson: Iowa evangelicals love the religious nutters, and after Huckabee in 2008 and Santorum in 2012, 2016 is Carson’s turn. Will probably also do well in South Carolina which will carry him until at least March 1, Super Tuesday.
6) Graham: probably wants to stay in until after Paul drops out, but a humiliating defeat in his home state of South Carolina will mean the end.
7) Fiorina: current not-Trump of the month. Will be back to low single digits by the end of the year and out after New Hampshire.
8) Santorum: waiting in the wings for the evangelicals to notice that Carson is blah, and come back to him, which won’t happen
9) Bush: Losing the Florida primary will be the end
10) Cruz, Rubio: Officially hanging in there to pick up the leftovers of the Bush vote, but really hanging in there for increased name-recognition to be turned into a cushy RWNJ welfare gig after their single Senate term.
11) Trump: that’s GOP presidential candidate Mr. Trump to you, punk.
Shakezula
The GOP is not going to allow anyone named Marco Rubio anywhere near the White House.
benw
@catclub: Romney seems like a sane, competent candidate compared to this bunch – and we all know how 2012 turned out!
Tom Q
@Joel: I don’t really see much analogy to Clinton’s campaign. She continues to lead widely in national polls, even when the phony Biden candidacy is included. Bush is barely distinguishable from Cruz/Huckabee in polls at this point. That IA poll yesterday, which found he was the only GOPer to lose head-to-head to Trump, suggests the one thing the base knows for sure is they want not-Bush. I think there’s a limit to how much money can do for you. (And I’m old enough to remember when John Connally & Phil Gramm had a ton of money but flamed out spectacularly regardless)
As I say, I’ll stick with “never say never” about Bush, but nothing suggests to me he ought to be the favorite at this point.
Rand Careaga
@Sourmash: “[The GOP convention is] going to get very, very ugly, resembling Chicago 1968, but on the inside.” From your lips, dear Sourmash, to the FSM’s shell-likes. I’ve been expecting the brownshirts to emerge ever since Uncle Pat’s philippic at the Houston convention in 1992. My dream is for Jeb! to receive the blessing at a bitterly contested, brokered convention, and for heat-packing Trump supporters to rush the stage (what’s that you say? They don’t permit open carry at the convention? Who’da thunk?) upon the announcement, resulting in scores of deaths, and followed by the Donald leading his acolytes out of the party. True, the Clinton administration would thereafter be obliged to govern in an environment that now included a heavily armed, nakedly fascist movement (say what you will about the tenets of the Republican Party, Dude, at least they constitute a figleaf), but we’d savor that footage for years, if perhaps necessarily from the safety of our bunkers.
geg6
@SWKELLOGG:
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Dondi. Jeebus, haven’t thought of Dondi in decades. But, damn, if you aren’t right. He looks just like him.
Bobby Thomson
Kids table and Gilmore: who cares? They aren’t taking anyone else’s votes or money. Graham drops after SC; Jindal and Pataki don’t make it that far.
Kasich hits a wall in SC and beyond, assuming he doesn’t drop out immediately after NH. (Independents will break for Sanders, effectively blocking Kasich. In fact, I’d be surprised if Bush doesn’t have people greasing the skids for Bernie there. That would be the smart play. )
Santorum and Huckabee are grifting and will drop out whenever. Same with Gilmore.
Cruz will stay in at least through Super Tuesday but unless he’s consolidated the right wing he will drop soon after that and plan for 2020.
Paul is grifting and will stay in to the end.
Christie stays in longer than he should because his candidacy may be the only thing keeping him from being indicted and he’s unlikely to win reelection. As long as Langone keeps funding him, he’s fine.
Rubio and Fiorina haven’t really taken a punch yet, so the jury’s out.
Carson sticks around at least through Super Tuesday, hoping for at least a prime time slot and maybe VP. Same goes for Rubio and Fiorina. Neither Carson nor Fiorina will win.
Bush stays in late because he has the money and, like Richard Gere, nowhere else to go. Same with Trump. He doesn’t have that many years left and wants to go out with a bang.
Poopyman
Mitt! is saddling up his white horse even as we muse on the near-score of future losers. He may sit out the first couple of primaries, but probably figures he can score those delegates after he crushes their winners on/after Super Tuesday.
Brachiator
@NonyNony:
Your list is as good as any other. And this early one we are all just guessing. The only thing I feel reasonably sure about is that I think that Trump will find a way to bow out (with appropriate excuses).
Early one I thought that Bush would be the eventual nominee, and the GOP establishment still likes him, but Trump just makes him look weak, and I think this will stick even if Trump drops out. Jeb! doesn’t seem to have that fire in the belly, and there is no particular compelling reason for his candidacy except the very tarred Bush family pedigree.
The idea of Cruz outlasting everyone is scary interesting. He is even nuttier than Trump. But in the end, who knows? It will be fun to watch, especially if there is more GOP backbiting and in-fighting.
tazj
@Tom Q: I have two reasons for being so dismissive of Cruz. The first is very petty. I don’t like to comment on people’s looks because it’s mean and I’m certainly no prize, but I just don’t see someone who’s not very photogenic doing well in the Republican primary.
The other reason is that every time I see him he is always so angry and extreme but he has nothing to balance that out. The man is very intelligent but from what I’ve seen, lacks any charm at all.
I mean Trump is obnoxious, outrageous and mean at times, but he can be funny too. He seems to try to walk back the horrible things he says by then stating that he really loves this person or that. Trump is older but he seems to have his money making success and his “charm” going for him.
I think many Republicans like Cruz’ rhetoric but don’t want him as their nominee.
Bobby Thomson
@Calouste: i can’t really disagree with that.
C.S.
@EconWatcher:
1960
geg6
@srv:
You do realize you have to actually be in it to drop out of it, don’t you?
Stupid trolls are stupid.
geg6
@tazj:
I’m with you on Kasich, but you’ve got to be kidding with Dondi (I’m so using that for Rubio from now on). Hillary or Bernie or even the not-even-going-to-run Joe will make him look like the stupid callow dimwit that he is. Lurching for a water bottle will look like a smooth, debonair move compared to how he’ll look debating with any of them.
And that’s before even getting into all his financial shenanigans. He would be toast in no time.
NonyNony
@Poopyman:
The FSM doesn’t love me enough to get Mitt into the race.
Could you imagine Mitt and Trump up there on stage with each other? Or Mitt and Fiorina?
In my wildest dreams Jeb! bows out early and Mitt jumps in.
Paul in KY
I will go with:
1. Pataki
2. Graham
3. Jindal
4. Gilmore
5. Satanum
6. Paul
7. Kasich
8. Huckabee
9. Christie
10. Cruz
11. Fiorina
12. Carson
13. Rubio
14. Trump
With Bush as the winner
Bulletin 1147
@Betty Cracker: Cheney was balding and had a job in the White House in ’75, an expression of ancient evil beyond his years.
Svensker
@SWKELLOGG:
I always think “Mark Sanchez” — but Dondi works, too. :)
Rand Careaga
@srv: Are we permitted to, ah — what is it they say about marriage rights? — are we permitted to cram these posts of yours down your throat a year from now, or will your magical powers of denial prevent this? My money’s on the latter.
dubo
I’m curious, why do so many of you have the Vanity/BookTour/FoxNewsAudition candidates (Paul, Huckabee, Carson) dropping out so early? They already know dang well what they’re doing and it isn’t trying to win the primary, so why wouldn’t they stick it out for the press?
Poopyman
Speaking of ex-candidates, I found Herman Caine.
Hal
I’m too lazy to make a list, but I will be surprised if Bush isn’t the winner with Rubio or Fiorina as VP choice.
Elizabelle
Enough of this thread. Too much attention to the contenders from Hell.
I would love for us to be on the lookout for the most preposterous stories tied to the Pope’s visit. The “both sides dread what he’ll say”, or other such nonsense.
Media’s got a problem. The party with the most Christianists and social gospel types in it is not so comfortable with a libtard pope who lives in the real world. (And make that, a Spanish-speaking world!) Who might align more with — um, Democrats — who live in a more earthbound orbit than media’s beloved Republicans.
Of course, whatever Francis or Obama says, the Very Serious People will tell us we can’t do anything about [whatever problem] anyway. And shake their serious heads and the women cocktail hostesses/news personalities will flaunt their gym-toned arms in sleeveless dresses.
tazj
@geg6: I agree with you that Rubio can’t hold a candle to Sanders, Clinton or Biden in terms of intellect or experience. I’m suppose I’m just afraid of how the media would spin his candidacy as something so new and fresh in comparison to whoever. It seems a few people want to portray him as the Republican Obama which is ridiculous.
You’re right Kasich would be the bigger threat especially being the governor of Ohio.
Rusty
I’m involved in a dead pool that started at the time of this last debate. I picked Walker and so now have a jump on the competition. Jindal’s my next pick. And like Doug, I think Rubio might take it all.
Mandalay
@Jeffro:
This is often presented as an argument in favor of Rubio, but I’m not convinced it means much. Clinton has a long record, solid experience, and some achievements, and Rubio not so much. Clinton has high name recognition, and Rubio not so much. Clinton is a woman, and Rubio not so much.
It will be easy for Clinton to paint young Rubio as a clueless, inexperienced fuckwit who is way out of his depth, and shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near the presidency. She can even dig up her 3 a.m. phone call ads. They didn’t work against Obama but they will ring true against sweaty Marco.
NonyNony
@dubo:
Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses in ’08 and I suspect that when he loses them in a very humiliating way in January he’ll drop out. And I suspect he WILL lose them in a very humiliating way in January and am looking forward to it.
Carson I think is going to stay in until he’s performing too poorly and then he’s out – he’s not in it to be humiliated. I put him as out after Super Tuesday on my list because I suspect he’ll do reasonably well but not great in Iowa, reasonably well but not great in NH, poorly in SC and then poorly in the Super Tuesday states and call it there.
Paul is a bit of a wildcard, but he’ll be doing cost/benefit analysis. He can always run again after all, and the money he spends campaigning cuts into other grifting opportunities, and he’ll need to hold onto that Senate seat and not humiliate himself too much in the presidential run for fear that the stink of failure carries over into his Senate race. So he’ll hold on until Kentucky (which is shortly after Super Tuesday) and then drop out. He already spent political capital (and real money) to get the Kentucky GOP to switch to a caucus instead of a primary, he’s not going to lose face by dropping out before he caucus. But I suspect he’ll underperform in Kentucky and bow out shortly afterward (he doesn’t seem to have the stomach for humiliating losses that his father does – he seems very thin skinned).
Amir Khalid
The Republican party’s 2016 presidential nomination race has been so weird that only by sheer dumb luck could one hope to guess in what order candidates will drop out.
I myself dare predict only that
— Christie will stay in until the Feds get his arrest warrant; or out of sheer, um, bullheadedness, for at least a couple of months after a painful humiliation in a primary that would force anyone else out.
— Gilmore will eventually coast to a stop unnoticed by the public, or by anyone in the media. So will Carson.
— Carly’s withdrawal speech will blame her campaign staff for her failure to win delegates.
dubo
@SWKELLOGG: It depends on how much power the Kingmakers have. They still want to win the White House and Rubio is the only GOP candidate who doesn’t sound like a total assclown even to people who aren’t paying close attention
phein39
@geg6:
What does srv think? That without Biden, these Democratic voters next preferred choice would be, I don’t know, Huckabee? Rubio? Bush?
FlipYrWhig
The only way Rubio takes it is if the Big Money people conclude the party can’t win, so it’d be worth it to sacrifice Marco for the symbolism of First Major Party Candidate Of Hispanic Origin. He’s just too boyish and eager to please. Fine VP material. No way he’s presidential timber. They’re all terrible. I’m starting to think that Trump hangs in and takes it. If not Trump, then Kasich for Pres. and Rubio for Veep, setting up Rubio to run at the top of the ticket in 2020. Bush is burnt toast.
Ted Mills
If and when Trump drops out will a) those voters want to vote for a “moderate” like Kasich b) the field will all have followed Trump, making nobody “moderate” anymore c) 3rd party Trump run?!!?!!
Frankensteinbeck
Paul’s positions have drifted. He’s going more and more consistently (I cannot sufficiently express what a flip-flopping liar he has been until now) with his father’s positions, when he used to drop them the moment they looked unpopular. I think this is the evidence that Paul really is picking up the family eternal-presidential-candidate grift. He’ll stay in the race as long as Ron Paul would.
Someone used the phrase ‘wild card’ to describe Trump above. I think that’s right. I know what got him here, but damned if I know where he’s going.
@Betty Cracker:
I misread and thought you said Trump as running mate. I was like ‘No fucking way’. Thank goodness I went back and reread. Jeb:( is a fantastically bad candidate, a true clown, but I think they’re all Bozos on this bus.
catclub
@dubo:
Kasich. Whether he breaks through I got no idea. Old and cranky worked for John McCain.
catclub
@Frankensteinbeck:
Elie suggested a health related excuse. I mentioned the guy in Restaurant at the End of the Universe who spent a year dead for tax purposes. Another possibility is some insult from Club for Growth that Trump simply cannot abide.
Another Holocene Human
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: Huckabee is a cynical grifter. Zealot might be a little more human.
Mandalay
@dubo:
Maybe, but if he gets the nomination Clinton will make sure that voters know that Rubio opposes abortion for victims of r*pe and inc*st, wants to get rid of affordable health insurance for those with pre-existing conditions, and opposes diplomatic relations with Cuba. She will paint him as a total assclown.
Paul in KY
@dubo: Paul has an actual job & the other 2 will get bad press from getting beat like dogs & they’ll give it up after awhile.
catclub
@Joel:
The real Berlusconi was the richest man in Italy AND owned a large fraction of the media. Trump is not and does not own the media. So as long as he ‘earns’ free media and they like him, he can run. But they can turn on him, not so in the case of Berlusconi.
catclub
@Frankensteinbeck:
Interesting observation.
Frankensteinbeck
@catclub:
I’d believe anything at this point. Winning the candidacy, running third party when he doesn’t win, or even dropping out tomorrow with a speech going ‘I can’t believe you morons believed me.’
@Paul in KY:
Yeah, but has he actually been doing it?
Jeffro
@Mandalay:
You’re not convinced it means much…perhaps because you’re thinking like a Dem? We’re both guessing what Reps might be thinking, which is not even properly called speculating at this point, lol. I think if it comes down to Bush vs Rubio, in a majority of their minds, Rubio covers more bases without the baggage and stumbling weakness we’ve seen w/ Bush. All of your points about Rubio vs. Clinton are true of course…but from a Dem’s perspective.
When I try to be objective about it, despite the fact that I’d never want him in the Oval Office nor agree with more than 2% of his positions politically, Rubio has done better in the debates. And my guess is he won’t rankle the Trump/Carson/TP factions within the GOP the way Jeb! would.
Jeffro
@catclub:
Hmm…this sounds oddly familiar…
catclub
@Jeffro: Did I miss you saying the same thing? oops. sorry.
Kay
Jeb’s the winner and Christie drops out next.
I’m not listing all these people, DougJ. Come on. Fully half of them are grifters or..somehow promoting themselves in ways we aren’t privvy to or may not comprehend.
I refuse to pretend they all “count” :)
Lindsey Graham. Please. Who cares when he drops out?
Fair Economist
@Mingobat f/k/a Karen in GA: Actually there are another 20 or 30 “candidates” who say they are running, but who have never held significant office or been noteworthy like Carson, Trump, or Fiorino. I don’t know if any of them are filing the necessary papers; my guess is no. Anyway, they’re basically being ignored and that’s probably the right idea.
Paul in KY
@Frankensteinbeck: At least once in a while..
Paul in KY
@Kay: Oh, come on. We did ours. Doesn’t take long.
Mandalay
@Jeffro: Being young is a two-edged sword, and is only relevant for undecided voters should it comes down to Clinton vs. Rubio. Clinton, though arguably an underachiever, has a load of bullet points on her resume for specific accomplishments, but Rubio has none. His only notable achievement in life was to become a senator, and he has done nothing of note since then.
The asset of being young is worth far less than the assets of experience and achievement when it comes to voting for a president.
revrick
If Trump doesn’t crater soon, and if the establishment candidates of Bush/Christie/Kasich/Rubio aren’t winnowed down to one in the next couple of months, I look at the GOP’s front-loaded primary schedule, and see a definite path to the nomination for Trump. He could quickly pile up an insurmountable lead in delegates.
The latest PPP poll of Iowa Republicans give Trump, Carson and Fiorina 54% of the votes and add in the 14% for the batshit crazy brigade of Cruz and Huckabee and over 2/3 of Iowa GOPers reject the establishment candidates.
Trump is also leading in NH and SC. It could get very interesting.
Thoughtful Today
I’d be interested in seeing how people rank Republican Presidential candidates from worst to least worst.
revrick
@EconWatcher: Wendell Willkie was 48 when he ran against FDR in 1940.
PaulW
@Facebones:
Jeb? is very self-aware. He’s also unlikely to drop out even though everything about him screams “I hate doing this” he’s probably convinced himself he and his family buddies in the RNC can rig the Convention to his favor and he’ll get the nomination despite his lackluster effort. He’s just going through the motions right now.
PaulW
@revrick:
We have to see what the polling’s like by December. There’s the belief among the pundits that the giddy high of people “rebelling” against the Establishment choices will fade once the reality of the primaries kick in.
BruceFromOhio
Hey, Hey, HEY! What’s this “brokered convention” scuttle? Do you know what havoc the RNC has already wrought on Browns Town? And now you want a food-fight at the teabagging freakshow? The place will reek for weeks!
Let’s see how you feel about a televised charlie-foxtrot with a bunch insane nutjobs in YOUR favorite city!
trollhattan
@Thoughtful Today:
“All of them, Katy.”
trollhattan
@BruceFromOhio:
Have I ever witnessed a “brokered convention?” Would I recognize one if I saw it? Is Goldman-Sachs the broker?
BruceFromOhio
… and no way Jebster drops out. Either he gets beat down fair and square in the very last stretch, or a gaggle of Cruz thugs hold him down while the Trump thugs beat him up in some alley in Iowa. Whichever, he ain’t going down easily – he’s had to wait sixteen years for his dickhead brother to verticaly fornicate the whole shebang, and then the Mooslim Kenyan to bring it back from the dead. It’s his turn, dammit!
Joel
@catclub: Sure, it’s not a perfect analogy, but Shinawatra is less familiar to most.
Applejinx
You people are freaking crazy. There’s no chance Jeb Bush is going to be the nominee. I’m pretty sure it’s going to be Trump, but if it’s not Trump it’s some random crazy. Bush is completely out of his depth. He’s going to make a “You won’t have Jeb Bush to kick around anymore”, take his toys and go home in disgrace, W smirking at him.
Bush says he speaks SPANISH around the house. Forget it. He’s not running for the Dem nomination. He’s already done and nobody wants to be so rude as to say it.
Jeffro
@Mandalay:
You know, I just happen to have President McCain on the line, and he disagrees…
Bex
1. Pataki
2. Gilmore
3. Graham
4. Santorum
5. Cristie
6. Jindal
7. Fiorina
8. Paul
9. Huckabee
10. Rubio
11. Trump
12. Cruz
13. Kasich
14. Bush
Rmoney is proclaimed the nominee
Paul in KY
@Applejinx: We are still very early in the process. Granted, he’s looked out of his league at present time, but he’s been out of the game for awhile. He will have as much money as anyone & definitely, the powerbrokers in the party want him.
Let’s revisit this in 5 months.
Jeffro
@catclub: Sorry was just being flip. I’m sure it was a concurrent thought of many on the board.
Frankensteinbeck
@Paul in KY:
From his shifting positions, I am thinking he has realized he won’t be president, and that he may or may not continue to be Senator, but the conspiracy theorist/survival nut/gold bug/Sovereign Citizen grift train lasts forever.
@Applejinx:
Jeb:( is one BAD candidate. Romney managed by being the only one with a real campaign organization. If anyone else serious lasts out Trump, I can’t see how they don’t stomp Bush 3: Direct To Video into the ground. Still… I’ve never seen anything like this. Trump could destroy all the other organized candidates first.
Paul in KY
@Frankensteinbeck: I think he’s definitely realized he won’t be president this go around. That’s why (when it has become obvious to Republican Kentuckians), he’ll have to cut bait to show he at least gives half a fuck about being senator.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@ Tokyokie: Wow, that’s an impressively messed up linky! Clicking the Reply link gets you back to my post. Congratulations! ;-)
You’re right that Cruz is a wild-card. He shut down the government once, we’ll see in a few days if he’s going to try to do it again, or just let the Teabaggers in the House do it with his helpful prodding.
I think if he can keep getting time on places like Colbert’s show, then he’ll stick around. If that dries up, I don’t imagine him sticking around – he doesn’t like being ignored. ;-)
Cheers,
Scott.
Mandalay
@Jeffro:
Touché!……except Obama also opposed the invasion of Iraq, and had brains, passion and charisma as well as youth. Rubio has the brains, passion and charisma of a wet paper towel.
I still back Clinton’s experience and achievements over Rubio’s youth.
PaulW
@BruceFromOhio:
I’m from Tampa Bay. They still haven’t repaired all the strip clubs the GOP tore down last visit.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@Jeffro:
It hasn’t been harped on in the press much recently, but supposedly “history proves” that the Teabaggers must win Ohio and Florida to win the White House. That gives Rubio, Kasich and Bush a big leg up on the others. Even though R & B seem incredibly weak to me, the conventional wisdom is that it’s hopeless without them. Kasich seems only slightly less insane to me, and seems to have the charisma of Pat Paulsen, but it seems the same reason is active there.
If you buy that reasoning, then it probably should be Kasich / Rubio. But Rmoney showed that reasoning like that doesn’t always work (what did Ryan bring to the ticket from the Electoral College perspective? Not much IIRC.).
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
PaulW
@trollhattan:
There hasn’t been a real brokered convention in ages: according to TEH WIKI, the Democratic Convention of 1952 is the last real one (there have been brokered conventions over the Vice President nominee back in 1976 and 1984 I believe).
In 1952 it seems Kefauver had won the primaries but the party leadership opposed him because his organized crime inquiries exposed a lot of Democratic machines in the big cities. Stevenson had been encouraged to run but had refused, yet when he gave a stirring opening speech at the convention the Draft Stevenson movement kicked back in and the convention attendees pushed for him well into a third ballot.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adlai_Stevenson_II#1952_presidential_bid
PaulW
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
There are no guarantees in a Presidential election that either Jeb? or Rubio will clinch Florida. They are not as popular in-state as the pundits would like (guess who’s polling well down here among the party faithful? Yup, The Hair Guy), and even with the strength in numbers conservatives have around here they still get overwhelmed by the Democrats and independent voters for the Presidential vote (Obama won here in 2008 AND 2012).
trollhattan
@PaulW:
Thanks. Didn’t think there’d been any such thing in my lifetime but I’m only familiar with the term–because it comes up every four years–but had no idea what it actually meant. “Smithers, release the hounds!”
patroclus
1-2. Christie and Jindal are the next up; they have real jobs and are going nowhere but will likely last through the next few debates.
3-4. Pataki and Gilmore should not be running now; they’ll withdraw at some point and no one will notice (just like they’re not noticing now).
I don’t see any of the others dropping out before actual votes are cast, so the rest of the predictions are really a prediction for how the primary/caucus results will pan out. I think, as things stand now, Trump and Carson will do the best in Iowa. The general rule then is that anyone below 3-4 or so drops out or is under tremendous pressure to drop out. But I don’t think that applies to the grifters/true believers or to the “moderates” who will still hope for New Hampshire. Do Rubio and/or Bush finish 3-4 in Iowa? If not, they could be gone, but I think not. Then, how does New Hamphire go? Right now, I think Trump wins and Carson falls so the new 2-3 candidates will get a bounce. Is that Bush, Rubio, Kasich or Fiorina? The lower NH-finishing 2 of that group will probably drop out.
So here’s my guess: (5) Fiorina, because she effectively loses both Iowa and NH; and (6) Kasich, because he doesn’t finish high enough in NH. Santorum, Graham and Huckabee won’t have done well either, but I think they still go on until the Southern primaries.
So – (7) Graham, after SC; (8) Huckabee, soon thereafter; (9) Santorum might limp on officially, but will have “suspended” any real campaigning.
That leaves Trump, Bush, Rubio, Carson, Cruz and a grifting-only Paul left.. If Trump falters, Cruz rises. Bush v. Rubio for the Establishment alternative. Carson (10) leaves after Super Tuesday (or slightly before). Bush prevails over (11) Rubio. Carson (12) either fades or flames out. As of now, I’d guess that (13) Cruz defers to Trump, but it could go the other way. Trump beats (14) Bush. Paul (15) suspends prior to or at the convention. Trump’s the nominee.
Dmbeaster
@revrick: This. Trump currently has the inside track. I think it true he has a hard ceiling on his support as of now, but the crowded field means that Trump could clean up in the winner take all primaries in March with his current plurality. The GOP rewrote their rules to enable a quick resolution, which favors Trump. He is not going to fade or self-destruct (well, maybe he will, but events to date suggest otherwise) and I don’t see who is going to overtake him. Trump is the candidate of the tea party and Fox news consumer,which is a huge force in the GOP
feebog
The fact that some of these morons have day jobs is not a factor. It’s not like they are into governing, or that they are any good at it. I would guess that Jindal, Gilmore, Pataki, Graham and Christie are all gone before Christmas. Huckabee drops out after he is embarrassed in Iowa. Fiorina and Carson bail after Super Tuesday. Agree that Paul stays in until the Kentucky caucus and then folds his tent. Cruz and Santorum stay in it to the end, despite the fact they have no chance. That leaves Trump, Bush, Kasich and Rubio with actual delegates. Trump may go to the end, even with just a few delegates. Bush will drop out if it is clear he cannot win towards the end of the primary process. I think Rubio makes a fatal misstep somewhere along the way, leaving Kasich as the default nominee.
geg6
@phein39:
Late to answer, but hopefully you’ll check in later. Idiot seems to think the mythical Joe Biden hard core supporters will be so dispirited by his “dropping out” of a race he’s not even in that they will just sit at home and cry on election day 2016. This, for a candidate whose policy preferences are very little different than those of both Hillary and Bernie.
collin
1. Graham – Getting bored
2. Gilmore
3. Pataki
4. Christie – After IA
5. Santorum – After IA
6. Huckabee – After NH
7. Kasich – After NH
8. Rubio – Loses Florida & donors flee
9. Fiorina – Gives up with SEC Primary
10. Carson
11. Jindal – I think he is that delutional
12. Cruz – Texas win give a short period of front runner
13. Trump – Loses Winner Take All California
14. Paul – Like Father, like son…Wants a convention speech.
Jeb Bush wins the GOP nom.
Mezz
Fun times. Too bad one of these idiot saps will end up the nominee
1. Graham
2. Pataki
3. Santorum
4. Christie
5. Jindal
6. Carson
7. Fiorina
8. Cruz
9. Huckabee
10. Paul
11. Kasich
12. Gilmore
13. Rubio
Bush GOP
Trump 3 party nominee
PaulW
Certain candidates are going to drop out earlier than expected due to external factors more than the actual campaigning.
One particular element are scandals and criminal investigations. Don’t forget Rick Perry is still facing a federal felony charge. One of the rumors swirling about the suddenness of Scott Walker’s drop out is that there’s an alleged scandal – probably to do with questionable filings with the FEC – en route.
Rand Paul’s campaign was hit with arrests of staffers involved with Ron Paul’s campaign in 2012, which may yet affect Rand. Christie obviously has the whole BridgeGate scandal clouding him and there are other allegations of misuse of Sandy relief funds and other acts still under investigation.
PaulW
we keep forgetting, don’t we, that there’s an election in Canada NEXT MONTH?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_2015
Mandalay
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
Of course there’s an awful long way to go, but a poll today shows Clinton losing to both Rubio and Jeb! in Florida by about 8%.
Jeffro
@Mandalay:
I do too…but we are thinking like Dems, not GOP voters (or perhaps more importantly, GOP kingmakers). They desperately want to believe in anything they think will give them an edge against the Dem nominee next fall.
Karl
Santorum doesn’t wash out that easily.
catbirdman
@tazj: I’m pretty much with you. I predict Fiorina will be the eventual running mate, to give R women some reason to vote R (although I have trouble seeing her playing second nut-job to anyone). I can see Bush, Rubio, or possibly Kasich ending up on top of the ticket.
mclaren
Jeb will be the winner, but Fiorina will drop out next.
This would be much more fun if instead of “drop out” we could put “vaporized by daleks” or “eaten by giant pterodatcyls that swoop down out of the sky without warning.”
PaulW
I’ve drawn up my own Dead Pool.
http://noticeatrend.blogspot.com/2015/09/just-for-fun-republican-dead-pool.html
Otherwise I can’t draw comic book characters worth a crap. It’s why I hired a comic artist to do my next superhero novel cover.
PaulW
@catclub:
Bush and Rubio can’t both be on the same ticket: Prez and VP cannot come from the same state.
PaulW
@Mandalay:
the link is broken. The Sun-Sentinel site loses it when it brings up its firewall forcing you to sign up.
PaulW
Rubio is not the savior everyone thinks he is. He’s got flaws. http://noticeatrend.blogspot.com/2015/09/the-beltway-keeps-looking-for-savior-to.html
kineslaw
1. Pataki
2. Jindal
3. Christie
4. Trump
5. Graham
6. Huckabee
7. Santorum
8. Paul
9. Carson
10. Bush
11. Kasich
12. Cruz
13. Fiorina
14. Gilmore
Winner: Rubio
Trump is starting to get attacked and has a super-thin skin. I think he gets out sooner rather than later.
SFAW
Hell, I might vote for Gilmore, as long as he has Burrows as his running mate. (Unfortunately, Wedeking would be unavailable for Chief of Staff.)
SFAW
@PaulW:
Which definition of “everyone” are you using? Because none of the ones in my dictionary seems to fit.
mclaren
@trollhattan:
Ever since the dawn of the TV era, all national Democratic and Republican conventions have served as coronation publicity events to introduce the already-selected candidates to the general election voters.
Once upon a time, political machines ran all America’s major cities. For some interesting and unknown reason, in 1948 Americans who had come home from WW II took it upon themselves to disassemble all the political machines in America. The 1952 presidential was the first one after this process of shutting down the bosses who ran all U.S. cities began, and it was the last brokered convention.
TV also played a major role in shutting down tight presidential races because of the tremendous amplifying effect TV had on small leads. Also, buying TV time was tremendously expensive, so this had the effect of shutting down very early campaigns that fell behind in the polls and ran out of money.
Prior to the TV era, a candidate like Scott Walker could have kept on going until the summer of 2016 if he wanted to.
The big change after WW II in both political parties was the enormous growth of party centralized leadership and the concomitant weakening of independent local bosses as sources of political power. To give just one idea of how powerful local party bosses were in U.S. politics, in the 1880s Tammany Hall politicians distributed pre-printed ballots with the candidates already voted for. All the voter had to do was sign the ballot and deliver it to the polling place, and for this each voter received one shot of whiskey.
This sounds like absurdist overstatement. Not so:
The reason for brokered conventions is obvious: prior to WW II, both political parties had to deal with the demands of local bosses who ran the major cities, as well as needing to reconcile the disparate factions of their own political parties. Thus, a presidential candidate acceptable to both the local bosses who ran America’s big cities and the political bosses who ran national politics in Washington D.C. sometimes had to be found at the last minute during the convention.
mclaren
@SFAW:
The Republican astroturfer troll who calls himself Reich to Rise, presumably.
Radio One
I’m going with the conventional wisdom and sticking with Rubio. I think he’s likely going to suck as the GOP nominee, but he’s probably the best compromise option the GOP base and the establishment have right now.
redshirt
1. Iceman
2. Beast
3. Nightcrawler
4. Dazzler
5. Cyclops
6. Kitty Pryde
7. Colossus
8. Professor X
9. Phoenix
10. Wolverine
pattonbt
Just can’t see Rubio at all. Once the lights get bright he’ll wilt. I’m surprised to say it, but I think Trump may have a real shot. He can keep attention on himself in ways that do not require a lot of money to be spent. So barring catastrophe, he will be the last standing or last two or three.
I had Bush all the way, but with Trump trumping, looks like that’s becoming less and less likely. If Bush doesn’t win, he’ll be last out. He’ll position himself as “next in line” for 2020 as he’ll keep the GOP money team behind him and he’ll be able to say “I told you so” when Trump (or whomever) flames out against Hillary.
But Bush will either win it or be last out. Last out means first in for 2020. What else has he got to do between now and then anyway?
ed_sanders
1. Graham — has to go before the SC humiliation
2. Christie — indictment
3. Jindal — preserve political future/standing (won’t matter)
4. Fiorina — having faded, support is gone
5. Paul — focus on Senate run
6. Gilmore — reality
7. Pataki — same
8. Bush — the money men pull the plug
9. Carson — batshit has reached it’s sell by date
10. Trump — “business empire needs tending” (i.e. impending bankruptcy)
11. Santorum — God (i.e. the granny’s he is grifting from) no longer taking his calls
12. Cruz — ego still unsated, his campaign disintegrates because the entire staff can’t stand to be in the room with him
13. Huckabee — see Santorum
14. Rubio — his billionaire is a dead ender
Attrition leaves: Kasich — establishment annoints him because he is the one who looks and sounds the most like them, not named “Bush”