There is no friggin’ way Jeb Bush’s favorability is that high. Well, I’m not Hispanic, so I guess I shouldn’t assume I know how they lean. It just seems bizarre, with how he’s been flipping them the bird lately.
4.
MattF
Reince’s plea is that he’s only following orders. But one of the achievements of the Nuremburg Tribunals was to make that excuse unacceptable.
How is Rick Perry in the negs after calling out Trump (I know, I know, there’s that little business of his record) and JEB! in the positives given his horrible statements unless they called around to all the South Florida nursing homes? Taste the Jebmentum.
11.
Punchy
Ben “I’d use drones to kill them wetbacks” Carson is +2 with Hispanics? Wowsers.
12.
jibeaux
Also, Jeb! just clarified that when he talked about anchor babies, he meant Asians.
At least once a week, my husband asks if we’re sure he’s the smart Bush. It does seem like that reputation was a bit oversold, even by Bush standards.
13.
Another Holocene Human
This can’t just be Cubans, Ted Cruz is in solid negs and he’s the “right” kind of Cuban, unless his Dad is a big fat liar, but so are a lot of the “right” kind of Cubans (including the ones who were setting off bombs and shit in the 80s, I can’t really keep all the machinations straight especially given the selective prosecutions). Marco Rubio is positive, not super surprised, but his Florida record, including stealing money from the GOP, is a joke, and he was outed as the “wrong” kind of Cuban, but lied about it in his book.
Maybe Jebbers is skating on his brother’s good name among Latin@ voters.
There is no friggin’ way Jeb Bush’s favorability is that high. Well, I’m not Hispanic, so I guess I shouldn’t assume I know how they lean. It just seems bizarre, with how he’s been flipping them the bird lately.
I can’t see it either.
He goes on Univision..
and tells folks..
you will never become citizens.
you can be a permanent exploited worker class for my corporate friends.
but, you will never become citizens.
but, because he said it in Spanish…it’s supposed to be ok?
And, then, there’s what he told the guy a couple of weeks ago, who was trying to get his sibling into the country, and had been trying for 8 years.
” Better do it before I’m President, because I’m going to stop all that.”
seriously?
seriously?
I’m not Hispanic either, and maybe I just don’t understand.
22.
MattF
@jibeaux: I suppose the initial reasoning was that the Bush family evidently had some political talent and W took care of regression to the mean. It’s notable that Jeb!’s campaign is leading to a reassessment of W’s abilities.
23.
NotMax
So, it’s Arbusto or bust.
24.
japa21
It looks like this is based on polling going back to July 8 up to August 23. I wonder what Jeb’s rating was back in early July versus what it is now.
I can’t connect to Gallup to get a reading on that. In fact, that would be true of all of them.
25.
MattF
@Another Holocene Human: Right. Note that the variance of the difference of two random variables is going to be larger than the variance of either.
26.
dr. bloor
Poor Jindal. Not only can’t he get people to like him, he can’t even get them to hate him.
27.
oldster
But -51 net favorability has to mean something like 20%-25% who were favorable, right?
(Even if there were 10% who did not respond, it would still have to be 20-70 to get -50).
Are there really 20% of the Hispanic voters who view Trump favorably? Hard to believe.
28.
WereBear
It’s not like Jeb? is popular. He’s just perceived as stinking less than the others.
And they all make me projectile vomit. Perhaps they were polling actual Republicans, instead of a broad slice of population?
29.
Belafon
It looks like this election is turning into a battle between returning whites to their former “glory” and making our way toward more fair treatment for everyone. Imagine being a minority in this country (this statement is obviously directed toward us whites here) and realizing your future depends on having to answer the question from whites “What’s in it for me?” in order to get them to the polls.
30.
Gin & Tonic
I’m surprised that a statistically significant sample knew who Pataki is.
but, because he said it in Spanish…it’s supposed to be ok?
Republicans have announced what they are going to do to whites for years – “We’re going to give your money to the rich” – and yet people still vote for them. As long as you say it in the right tone, I guess.
My Nigeria’ – 6-Part Al Jazeera Documentary Series on Human Stories of Africa’s Leading Economy – Debuts Today
By
Tambay A. Obenson
|
Shadow and Act
August 24, 2015 at 7:25PM
For those of you who have access
to Al Jazeera English… here are details on a new documentary series premiering today, that you might be interested in checking out. And for those without access to the network, I’m told by Al Jazeera that the individual episodes will be made available online for us to share; so when that happens, I’ll publish them here. In the meantime, below you’ll find a preview of what’s coming…
Premiering on Al Jazeera English today, August 24, 2015,
“My Nigeria” is a series of six half-hour documentaries telling the
human story and pulsing with the energy of Africa’s leading economy.
Fromstand up-comedian Basketmouth to Nollywood star turned politician Kate Henshaw, from ICT expert Gbenga Sesan to fashion designer Deola Sagoe, from football coach Femi Bamigboye to female mechanic Sandra Aguebor, each film focuses on one central character, who invites us into their world, sharing their story in their own words.
The polling was before Jeb’s anchor babies issue. I’d bet he’s dropped.
38.
Face
Who’s Jim Gilmore?
39.
Bobby Thomson
This factors into Rinse’s statement. Unpacked: “OK, so Trump loses the Hispanics and the blacks. They don’t vote without Barack Obama on the ticket anyway. So long as he excites the base and jacks up the white vote, it’ll help us down ticket in the state races and he might even win.” Not saying he’s right, but I can guarantee that’s the calculus.
40.
Joel
This poll is pretty meaningless. Eliminate the headliners and you have a spread of:
Pataki +3
Fiorina +3
Kasich -3
Gilmore -7
That’s a huge amount of variability among unknown candidates (yes, Fiorina and Kasich are still unknowns in the general sense).
I’m surprised that a statistically significant sample knew who Pataki is.
I’m not sure if it’s that surprising to get 25% of the population to respond to something like that. First of all, Pataki was governor of a state with a substantial Hispanic population, so he’ll get some name recognition from that. And there will always be some political junkies in any group and some people who give their opinions without actually knowing anything. Even Jim Gilmore managed to get a response for 14% of the population.
FWIW, the original Gallup poll has results for the Democrats, too. Hillary is the only one with substantial name recognition (76% vs. 25% for Bernie Sanders) and she had a net +40% favorability rating.
42.
Eric U.
the sad thing is that most people in this country are ignorant of politics and the fact that Bush is known to speak Spanish probably is the main factor in these numbers.
Forget Jeb ( I thought his exclamation mark quit).
Whats been this week’s Ted Cruz insult t o someone who has cancer or just lost a loved one?
45.
Hal
I’m surprised Rubio is so high up there. His immigration plan was terrible and he still advocates self deportation.
Frank Sharry is the founder and executive director of America’s Voice, a group that was founded to serve as the communications hub of the immigration movement. He practically seethed when Business Insider asked him about Rubio’s immigration plan.
“It’s unf—ingbelievable to me that this hasn’t been exposed,” Sharry said. He later added, “He’s usually mentioned in the same sentence with Jeb Bush, and there is no relationship to the reality.”
“He wants people to think he’s for reform when, in fact, his approach means no reform ever,” Sharry said. “He’s doing this so he can say to donors and to Latinos, ‘I’m with you,’ and say to conservatives who are angry at him for working on the Gang of Eight bill, ‘I’m with you.’ … The right loves it, because they know that immigration reform will never happen under his plan.”
Rubio wants immigrants to jump through hoops before they ever even come close to citizenship.
“They will have to pass a background check, they will have to pay a fine, they will have to start paying taxes, they will have to learn English,” Rubio said of immigrants who lack proper documentation. “In exchange for that, what they will get is a work permit that allows them to legally work in the United States and travel, and that’s all they will have for an extended period of time. And then at some point in the future, we can have a further conversation about whether they’re allowed to apply for a green card.”
His major point is that once we prove that we’ve secured the border and that we’ve eliminated illegal hiring, then we should deal humanely with the 11 million people here, and I prefer citizenship not just a permanent block on citizenship,” Sharry said of Rubio’s plan.
“That’s like saying, ‘As soon as I gorge on food this week, my diet is going to be so good,'” Sharry said. “The idea that we’re going to pass legislation … the idea that he would get Democrats in the immigration-reform movement to support doing all the things Republicans want in exchange for down the road maybe doing something for the 11 million? … I don’t give a s— whether he’s for citizenship at that point. What he’s for is enforcement only.”
Ok. Would you please stop talking about “the Hispanic vote”? I expect that crap from GOP pollsters and the MSM, not from y’all.
There’s no such thing as the “Hispanic” voter.
Cuban Americans are deeply divided between the older generation and the new.
Mexican Americans lean heavily Dem, but (at least in Texas) don’t seem to have a big interest in voting en masse.
Argentinian Americans think of themselves as Europeans with the wrong zip code. Republican leaning, most likely.
And so on.
FWIW, the original Gallup poll has results for the Democrats, too. Hillary is the only one with substantial name recognition (76% vs. 25% for Bernie Sanders) and she had a net +40% favorability rating.
Apparently, this is an ominous sign of a stumbling candidacy.
I think that mostly shows that the numbers reflect a pretty shallow take on the candidates. Only 43% of the respondents know enough about Rubio to offer an opinion of him, so it’s not as people are really well informed. A lot of those 43% are probably responding based on a very general idea of who Rubio is rather than any kind of solid idea of his political platform.
57.
NorthLeft12
This poll does not fill me with any confidence regarding the judgment of Hispanic voters in general.
Yes, one might say that Trump is in the right range looking at this data superficially, but when you think about it this indicates that 25% of decided Hispanic voters think favourably of Donald Trump. Not sure what the breakdown actually is but if it is %5 approve, 56% disapprove, and 39% have no opinion/undecided, does that make any more sense?
It just seems to me that this is a pretty worthless exercise in that most voters [Hispanic, AA, Caucasian] probably have no clue what most of these guys stand for or who they even are. If this is a true measure of an informed Hispanic voter, your country is in a lot of trouble.
Bush: ‘Anchor babies’ is ‘more related to Asian people’
August 24, 2015, 04:36 pm
Jeb Bush aggressively defended his use of the term “anchor babies” during a trip Monday to the U.S.-Mexico border, saying the term describes fraudulent immigration “more related to Asian people.”
“This is ludicrous for the [Hillary] Clinton campaign and others to suggest that somehow I am using a derogatory term,” the presidential candidate said after a roundtable with local officials on border security and immigration in McAllen, Texas.
“What I’m talking about is the specific case of fraud being committed where there’s organized efforts — frankly it’s more related to Asian people — coming into our country, having children in that organized effort, taking advantage of that noble concept, which is birthright citizenship.”
Apparently, this is an ominous sign of a stumbling candidacy.
One can always hope…
61.
RP
@Emma: True, but the vast majority in the US are Mexican and Puerto Rican (about 75% combined IIRC). The other groups are pretty small.
62.
Betty Cracker
@raven: I don’t know shit about what’s happening in the back room (other than the same rumors everyone has heard about a site redesign), but the mobile app is definitely working normally (or was yesterday) while the desktop version is slow as hell. Yeah, I know: Thanks, Captain Obvious!
63.
RP
Also, I read somewhere that the largest block of Hispanic voters in Florida is now Puerto Rican and Dominican seniors from the NY area who are retiring to Orlando and other communities. Combine that with the split between the older and younger Cuban voters, the traditional Cuban loyalty to the GOP is becoming less and less meaningful.
64.
Matt McIrvin
@Emma: Absolutely correct, but this is the poll we have. It’d be really interesting to break this down between Mexican-Americans, Cuban-Americans, Puerto Ricans, etc.
65.
Brandon
California is always the trend setter. In this case, Trump the candidate is shaping up to be half Pete Wilson and half Governator.
66.
WaterGirl
@Emma: That’s how I feel when people talk about baby boomers and how we’re conservative and the white women are the worst, and white people can’t handle a black president. etc etc etc.
This 50-year old baby boomer went to Iowa to volunteer for Obama before the caucuses and trudged through the snow and slush going door to door for days on end in my assigned precinct, and the day of the primary I stood on the busy street corner with my sigh and jumped up and down to get the attention of the people who were driving to work so they would remember to go to their caucus.
I remember being in a diner at lunchtime on the day of the caucus, and the lunchtime news was showing my group standing on the corner with our signs. As I was standing in line, I overheard the person in the booth say “oh, they pay college kids to do that” and I jumped in and said, no they don’t, and pointed to the screen – and she could see me standing right in front of her in my down coat and look at the TV and see me and my coat and my hat.
And I wasn’t the only one. it seemed like the Obama campaign was filled with volunteers who were white women around my age. We were part of the contingent that got Obama elected in the first place, and it’s not fun to hear that white people can’t handle a black president. Some white people, for sure. People tend to tar with a pretty wide brush.
I think all the generalizing separates all of us and I agree with you that it’s not helpful.
67.
Betty Cracker
@Roger Moore: This. Polls conducted now are virtually meaningless, aside from their entertainment value.
I’m also skeptical of the doom-saying about HRC’s candidacy based on current polling. I was exposed to Fox News programming while out of town this past weekend, and Fox is giving e-Ghazi the type of wall-to-wall coverage typically reserved for wars. Honest to God, if you watched an hour of it, you’d expect HRC to be clapped in irons at any moment. Events will eventually overtake that narrative one way or another.
68.
Emma
@RP: True, but as demonstrated in Bush v. Gore, one little ratf_ck in the right population can throw the results into chaos. Tracking small groups is worthwhile in some states.
Poor Jindal. Not only can’t he get people to like him, he can’t even get them to hate him.
“The opposite of love isn’t hate; it’s indifference.”
71.
Matt McIrvin
@Betty Cracker: I’m still wondering what the heck is up with Josh Marshall. The other day Scott Walker says something stupid and Marshall’s response is: “This is what’s frightening about the instability in the Democratic nomination race: you could end up with a numbskull like Scott Walker as President.”
What the heck? In the Democratic nomination race? Anyway, on the R side, Scott Walker is tanking utterly, which I’d think would be at least as significant to this particular discussion as anything happening to Democrats.
72.
NorthLeft12
The Charles Pierce site reported that the Trump breakdown was 14% positive and 65% negative and 21% unknown. Yeah, five to one negative to positive is pretty ugly, but there is still a lot more positive in there than I would have thought possible.
“The Dem primary is so unstable that we could wind up with Sanders or Biden instead of HRC. If Sanders or Biden are the Dem nominees, then they might lose to e.g. Walker. (HRC would not lose to Walker). So the instability in the Dem nomination race increases the chances of a Pres. Walker.”
Maybe his calculus is wrong, but he did not misspeak or say something nonsensical.
74.
Another Holocene Human
@WaterGirl: Once you accept the unpleasant reality that a majority of white people–60%, I guess?–don’t think like you and me, then your ears will stop burning when you hear “white people can’t take Obama”. The majority can’t! That doesn’t mean that me, my wife, my aunt, my late grandmother, one of our good friends all worked very hard in 2008 and 2012 to get Obama elected. (Everyone on my list except my wife is Irish. Evil gingers at it again!)
75.
gvg
We are political junkies and not typical. A lot of people still aren’t paying attention. I think that explains why there are some positives in views for this polls.
The Hispanic vote does really exist in an important sense. The minds of the bigots. THEY think all “hispanics” are the same and they go mainly by looks which means they get it wrong alot. they don’t care that some hispanics have been US citizens for generations since for instance Texas independence or the purchase of Florida. The aggressive dislike being reignited will in practice push the different groups of hispanics together.
I was especially amused by the description of Argentinian Americans thinking they were Europeans. The bigots don’t care and telling them how ignorant they are would likely result in more ugliness.
I wish I wasn’t seeing so much ugliness right now but historically it has increased in waves and then receeded. Right now is not a good time for hispanics to see themselves as smaller sub groups. The phrase we must all hang together, or we shall assuredly all hang seperately comes to my mind. Actually any group that sometimes gets targeted, ought to be noticing all the aggressive attacks and how fast the GOP “base” turns to attack any group that they notice at the moment.
76.
El Caganer
@Face: He’s one of the Flatlanders; also appeared in The Big Lebowski….what? Oh, sorry.
@Matt McIrvin: I saw that too and assumed it was a typo and he meant to say Republican. Unless this is a passive aggressive way of plugging e-ghazi.
80.
Bobby Thomson
@oldster: it’s nonsensical to say the Democratic primaries are unstable. It’s also nonsensical to ask if Trump will “rebrand” the Republican Party as the party of white people. But Josh has huge blind spots and takes a long time to reach obvious conclusions. That’s why when he gets there you know the CW is shifting.
81.
mdblanche
Anectodally I live in a city with a large Hispanic population and they are aware of Donald Trump and just what he thinks of them. A lot of the conversations in the community and the media are in Spanish, so most everyone else probably isn’t even aware of how much Latinos are already paying attention. I don’t speak Spanish well enough to understand too much of what I overhear, but the gist is unmistakeable.
82.
Ruckus
@WaterGirl:
About the same for old white men. We aren’t all the same, neither is any other arbitrary group of humans. I’m old, white, male and far far to the left of many 30 yr olds. Bernie Sanders is even older, about as white, and far, far to the left of any republican that I know of. All of us, races, genders, whatevers are human. Arbitrary groupings are just that.
Even political groupings are arbitrary and not in the least actually descriptive of a portion of the members. All republicans are not racist. Yes they vote for racist politicians, some of whom are racist against the group they most likely would be placed in. And it’s not that we are all, all that complex, some of us are just stupid.
oldster
Yup, looks to me like Ted Cruz is going to bring home the Hispanic vote to its natural place in the Republican party.
(Apparently there *is* a Spanish word for smarmy loathsome jerk).
Baud
That favorability gap is YOOOOOGE.
Frankensteinbeck
There is no friggin’ way Jeb Bush’s favorability is that high. Well, I’m not Hispanic, so I guess I shouldn’t assume I know how they lean. It just seems bizarre, with how he’s been flipping them the bird lately.
MattF
Reince’s plea is that he’s only following orders. But one of the achievements of the Nuremburg Tribunals was to make that excuse unacceptable.
C.V. Danes
It’s a mystery to me how any of these candidates could be on the positive side.
cmorenc
But will dem-leaning Hispanics turn out to vote in strong enough numbers to make a difference against the angry old white guy vote?
Baud
@Frankensteinbeck:
W. was OK for Hispanics. Maybe Jeb! is enjoying the positive glow from that relationship for once. Plus, Latina wife.
pamelabrown53
@Frankensteinbeck:
I’d like to see the dem candidates included so we could compare and contrast.
Baud
@cmorenc:
Or Dem-leaning whites for that matter.
Another Holocene Human
How is Rick Perry in the negs after calling out Trump (I know, I know, there’s that little business of his record) and JEB! in the positives given his horrible statements unless they called around to all the South Florida nursing homes? Taste the Jebmentum.
Punchy
Ben “I’d use drones to kill them wetbacks” Carson is +2 with Hispanics? Wowsers.
jibeaux
Also, Jeb! just clarified that when he talked about anchor babies, he meant Asians.
At least once a week, my husband asks if we’re sure he’s the smart Bush. It does seem like that reputation was a bit oversold, even by Bush standards.
Another Holocene Human
This can’t just be Cubans, Ted Cruz is in solid negs and he’s the “right” kind of Cuban, unless his Dad is a big fat liar, but so are a lot of the “right” kind of Cubans (including the ones who were setting off bombs and shit in the 80s, I can’t really keep all the machinations straight especially given the selective prosecutions). Marco Rubio is positive, not super surprised, but his Florida record, including stealing money from the GOP, is a joke, and he was outed as the “wrong” kind of Cuban, but lied about it in his book.
Maybe Jebbers is skating on his brother’s good name among Latin@ voters.
Another Holocene Human
@Punchy: Statistical noise.
I doubt the comment you refer to got much press. That could change if his profile is raised.
TS
Can’t believe any of them has a net positive. Must have been asked to put them in order from terrible to horrific.
Another Holocene Human
@cmorenc: Your question is too general. Depends on the state.
Baud
@TS:
When you don’t have a D next to your name, you can get away with much more. The fact that Trump is so negative really says something.
Roger Moore
I’m surprised that Bush’s is still so high. I guess talking about anchor babies will do something about that.
Another Holocene Human
@Frankensteinbeck: It’s not that high, compared to Trump’s negative rating, but, yeah, I cosign that whole comment.
El Caganer
@jibeaux: He’s going to build a wall along the Rio Grande to keep out Cambodians. And at this point he’s making W look like Bertrand Russell.
rikyrah
@Frankensteinbeck:
I can’t see it either.
He goes on Univision..
and tells folks..
you will never become citizens.
you can be a permanent exploited worker class for my corporate friends.
but, you will never become citizens.
but, because he said it in Spanish…it’s supposed to be ok?
And, then, there’s what he told the guy a couple of weeks ago, who was trying to get his sibling into the country, and had been trying for 8 years.
” Better do it before I’m President, because I’m going to stop all that.”
seriously?
seriously?
I’m not Hispanic either, and maybe I just don’t understand.
MattF
@jibeaux: I suppose the initial reasoning was that the Bush family evidently had some political talent and W took care of regression to the mean. It’s notable that Jeb!’s campaign is leading to a reassessment of W’s abilities.
NotMax
So, it’s Arbusto or bust.
japa21
It looks like this is based on polling going back to July 8 up to August 23. I wonder what Jeb’s rating was back in early July versus what it is now.
I can’t connect to Gallup to get a reading on that. In fact, that would be true of all of them.
MattF
@Another Holocene Human: Right. Note that the variance of the difference of two random variables is going to be larger than the variance of either.
dr. bloor
Poor Jindal. Not only can’t he get people to like him, he can’t even get them to hate him.
oldster
But -51 net favorability has to mean something like 20%-25% who were favorable, right?
(Even if there were 10% who did not respond, it would still have to be 20-70 to get -50).
Are there really 20% of the Hispanic voters who view Trump favorably? Hard to believe.
WereBear
It’s not like Jeb? is popular. He’s just perceived as stinking less than the others.
And they all make me projectile vomit. Perhaps they were polling actual Republicans, instead of a broad slice of population?
Belafon
It looks like this election is turning into a battle between returning whites to their former “glory” and making our way toward more fair treatment for everyone. Imagine being a minority in this country (this statement is obviously directed toward us whites here) and realizing your future depends on having to answer the question from whites “What’s in it for me?” in order to get them to the polls.
Gin & Tonic
I’m surprised that a statistically significant sample knew who Pataki is.
Belafon
@rikyrah:
Republicans have announced what they are going to do to whites for years – “We’re going to give your money to the rich” – and yet people still vote for them. As long as you say it in the right tone, I guess.
rikyrah
I might take a look at this series.
…………………………….
My Nigeria’ – 6-Part Al Jazeera Documentary Series on Human Stories of Africa’s Leading Economy – Debuts Today
By
Tambay A. Obenson
|
Shadow and Act
August 24, 2015 at 7:25PM
For those of you who have access
to Al Jazeera English… here are details on a new documentary series premiering today, that you might be interested in checking out. And for those without access to the network, I’m told by Al Jazeera that the individual episodes will be made available online for us to share; so when that happens, I’ll publish them here. In the meantime, below you’ll find a preview of what’s coming…
Premiering on Al Jazeera English today, August 24, 2015,
“My Nigeria” is a series of six half-hour documentaries telling the
human story and pulsing with the energy of Africa’s leading economy.
Fromstand up-comedian Basketmouth to Nollywood star turned politician Kate Henshaw, from ICT expert Gbenga Sesan to fashion designer Deola Sagoe, from football coach Femi Bamigboye to female mechanic Sandra Aguebor, each film focuses on one central character, who invites us into their world, sharing their story in their own words.
http://blogs.indiewire.com/shadowandact/my-nigeria-6-part-al-jazeera-documentary-series-on-human-stories-of-africas-leading-economy-debuts-today-20150824
Jeffro
Interesting stuff…who knew Pataki had a net positive favorability rating with any group (other than perhaps Mrs. Pataki and the kids?)
Sadly for the GOP, Bush and Rubio can’t both be on the ticket – imagine that kind of Hispanic-vote-getting dynamite!
raven
Can’t one of you web geniuses figure out what the fuck is wrong with this website???
Gin & Tonic
@raven: It’s slow.
raven
@Gin & Tonic: next
debbie
@Frankensteinbeck:
The polling was before Jeb’s anchor babies issue. I’d bet he’s dropped.
Face
Who’s Jim Gilmore?
Bobby Thomson
This factors into Rinse’s statement. Unpacked: “OK, so Trump loses the Hispanics and the blacks. They don’t vote without Barack Obama on the ticket anyway. So long as he excites the base and jacks up the white vote, it’ll help us down ticket in the state races and he might even win.” Not saying he’s right, but I can guarantee that’s the calculus.
Joel
This poll is pretty meaningless. Eliminate the headliners and you have a spread of:
Pataki +3
Fiorina +3
Kasich -3
Gilmore -7
That’s a huge amount of variability among unknown candidates (yes, Fiorina and Kasich are still unknowns in the general sense).
Roger Moore
@Gin & Tonic:
I’m not sure if it’s that surprising to get 25% of the population to respond to something like that. First of all, Pataki was governor of a state with a substantial Hispanic population, so he’ll get some name recognition from that. And there will always be some political junkies in any group and some people who give their opinions without actually knowing anything. Even Jim Gilmore managed to get a response for 14% of the population.
FWIW, the original Gallup poll has results for the Democrats, too. Hillary is the only one with substantial name recognition (76% vs. 25% for Bernie Sanders) and she had a net +40% favorability rating.
Eric U.
the sad thing is that most people in this country are ignorant of politics and the fact that Bush is known to speak Spanish probably is the main factor in these numbers.
OzarkHillbilly
@raven: Tommy seems to have a clue.
shell
Forget Jeb ( I thought his exclamation mark quit).
Whats been this week’s Ted Cruz insult t o someone who has cancer or just lost a loved one?
Hal
I’m surprised Rubio is so high up there. His immigration plan was terrible and he still advocates self deportation.
Rubio wants immigrants to jump through hoops before they ever even come close to citizenship.
http://www.businessinsider.com/marco-rubio-immigration-flaw-2015-8
catclub
@Face: The least popular Gilmore girl.
Emma
Ok. Would you please stop talking about “the Hispanic vote”? I expect that crap from GOP pollsters and the MSM, not from y’all.
There’s no such thing as the “Hispanic” voter.
Cuban Americans are deeply divided between the older generation and the new.
Mexican Americans lean heavily Dem, but (at least in Texas) don’t seem to have a big interest in voting en masse.
Argentinian Americans think of themselves as Europeans with the wrong zip code. Republican leaning, most likely.
And so on.
There’s no such thing as the “Hispanic” voter!
raven
@OzarkHillbilly: Heck, it’s connectivity!
Amir Khalid
@Roger Moore:
Apparently, this is an ominous sign of a stumbling candidacy.
schrodinger's cat
Polls more than months away from any actual voting are indicative of what, if anything?
OzarkHillbilly
@raven: Whatever that is. I am ignorant of all things computer, so much so it is a negative.
Eric U.
@Amir Khalid: I really hope Biden will jump in, those are just horrible numbers for HRC.
shell
The whole internet seems to slowish this morning. Fallout from the Stock Market plunge?
Joel
@Amir Khalid: Pearl-clutching is en vogue, don’t you know?
Amir Khalid
@schrodinger’s cat:
Political news media’s desperation for a story.
Roger Moore
@Hal:
I think that mostly shows that the numbers reflect a pretty shallow take on the candidates. Only 43% of the respondents know enough about Rubio to offer an opinion of him, so it’s not as people are really well informed. A lot of those 43% are probably responding based on a very general idea of who Rubio is rather than any kind of solid idea of his political platform.
NorthLeft12
This poll does not fill me with any confidence regarding the judgment of Hispanic voters in general.
Yes, one might say that Trump is in the right range looking at this data superficially, but when you think about it this indicates that 25% of decided Hispanic voters think favourably of Donald Trump. Not sure what the breakdown actually is but if it is %5 approve, 56% disapprove, and 39% have no opinion/undecided, does that make any more sense?
It just seems to me that this is a pretty worthless exercise in that most voters [Hispanic, AA, Caucasian] probably have no clue what most of these guys stand for or who they even are. If this is a true measure of an informed Hispanic voter, your country is in a lot of trouble.
Roger Moore
@schrodinger’s cat:
Judging by the percentage of voters who can actually offer an opinion on the candidates, an electorate that’s still poorly informed.
rikyrah
Bush: ‘Anchor babies’ is ‘more related to Asian people’
August 24, 2015, 04:36 pm
Jeb Bush aggressively defended his use of the term “anchor babies” during a trip Monday to the U.S.-Mexico border, saying the term describes fraudulent immigration “more related to Asian people.”
“This is ludicrous for the [Hillary] Clinton campaign and others to suggest that somehow I am using a derogatory term,” the presidential candidate said after a roundtable with local officials on border security and immigration in McAllen, Texas.
“What I’m talking about is the specific case of fraud being committed where there’s organized efforts — frankly it’s more related to Asian people — coming into our country, having children in that organized effort, taking advantage of that noble concept, which is birthright citizenship.”
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/251829-bush-slams-ludicrous-criticism-on-anchor-babies
Kropadope
@Amir Khalid:
One can always hope…
RP
@Emma: True, but the vast majority in the US are Mexican and Puerto Rican (about 75% combined IIRC). The other groups are pretty small.
Betty Cracker
@raven: I don’t know shit about what’s happening in the back room (other than the same rumors everyone has heard about a site redesign), but the mobile app is definitely working normally (or was yesterday) while the desktop version is slow as hell. Yeah, I know: Thanks, Captain Obvious!
RP
Also, I read somewhere that the largest block of Hispanic voters in Florida is now Puerto Rican and Dominican seniors from the NY area who are retiring to Orlando and other communities. Combine that with the split between the older and younger Cuban voters, the traditional Cuban loyalty to the GOP is becoming less and less meaningful.
Matt McIrvin
@Emma: Absolutely correct, but this is the poll we have. It’d be really interesting to break this down between Mexican-Americans, Cuban-Americans, Puerto Ricans, etc.
Brandon
California is always the trend setter. In this case, Trump the candidate is shaping up to be half Pete Wilson and half Governator.
WaterGirl
@Emma: That’s how I feel when people talk about baby boomers and how we’re conservative and the white women are the worst, and white people can’t handle a black president. etc etc etc.
This 50-year old baby boomer went to Iowa to volunteer for Obama before the caucuses and trudged through the snow and slush going door to door for days on end in my assigned precinct, and the day of the primary I stood on the busy street corner with my sigh and jumped up and down to get the attention of the people who were driving to work so they would remember to go to their caucus.
I remember being in a diner at lunchtime on the day of the caucus, and the lunchtime news was showing my group standing on the corner with our signs. As I was standing in line, I overheard the person in the booth say “oh, they pay college kids to do that” and I jumped in and said, no they don’t, and pointed to the screen – and she could see me standing right in front of her in my down coat and look at the TV and see me and my coat and my hat.
And I wasn’t the only one. it seemed like the Obama campaign was filled with volunteers who were white women around my age. We were part of the contingent that got Obama elected in the first place, and it’s not fun to hear that white people can’t handle a black president. Some white people, for sure. People tend to tar with a pretty wide brush.
I think all the generalizing separates all of us and I agree with you that it’s not helpful.
Betty Cracker
@Roger Moore: This. Polls conducted now are virtually meaningless, aside from their entertainment value.
I’m also skeptical of the doom-saying about HRC’s candidacy based on current polling. I was exposed to Fox News programming while out of town this past weekend, and Fox is giving e-Ghazi the type of wall-to-wall coverage typically reserved for wars. Honest to God, if you watched an hour of it, you’d expect HRC to be clapped in irons at any moment. Events will eventually overtake that narrative one way or another.
Emma
@RP: True, but as demonstrated in Bush v. Gore, one little ratf_ck in the right population can throw the results into chaos. Tracking small groups is worthwhile in some states.
Betty Cracker
@WaterGirl: Amen, sister.
Bubblegum Tate
@dr. bloor:
“The opposite of love isn’t hate; it’s indifference.”
Matt McIrvin
@Betty Cracker: I’m still wondering what the heck is up with Josh Marshall. The other day Scott Walker says something stupid and Marshall’s response is: “This is what’s frightening about the instability in the Democratic nomination race: you could end up with a numbskull like Scott Walker as President.”
What the heck? In the Democratic nomination race? Anyway, on the R side, Scott Walker is tanking utterly, which I’d think would be at least as significant to this particular discussion as anything happening to Democrats.
NorthLeft12
The Charles Pierce site reported that the Trump breakdown was 14% positive and 65% negative and 21% unknown. Yeah, five to one negative to positive is pretty ugly, but there is still a lot more positive in there than I would have thought possible.
oldster
@Matt McIrvin:
I took Josh to be saying:
“The Dem primary is so unstable that we could wind up with Sanders or Biden instead of HRC. If Sanders or Biden are the Dem nominees, then they might lose to e.g. Walker. (HRC would not lose to Walker). So the instability in the Dem nomination race increases the chances of a Pres. Walker.”
Maybe his calculus is wrong, but he did not misspeak or say something nonsensical.
Another Holocene Human
@WaterGirl: Once you accept the unpleasant reality that a majority of white people–60%, I guess?–don’t think like you and me, then your ears will stop burning when you hear “white people can’t take Obama”. The majority can’t! That doesn’t mean that me, my wife, my aunt, my late grandmother, one of our good friends all worked very hard in 2008 and 2012 to get Obama elected. (Everyone on my list except my wife is Irish. Evil gingers at it again!)
gvg
We are political junkies and not typical. A lot of people still aren’t paying attention. I think that explains why there are some positives in views for this polls.
The Hispanic vote does really exist in an important sense. The minds of the bigots. THEY think all “hispanics” are the same and they go mainly by looks which means they get it wrong alot. they don’t care that some hispanics have been US citizens for generations since for instance Texas independence or the purchase of Florida. The aggressive dislike being reignited will in practice push the different groups of hispanics together.
I was especially amused by the description of Argentinian Americans thinking they were Europeans. The bigots don’t care and telling them how ignorant they are would likely result in more ugliness.
I wish I wasn’t seeing so much ugliness right now but historically it has increased in waves and then receeded. Right now is not a good time for hispanics to see themselves as smaller sub groups. The phrase we must all hang together, or we shall assuredly all hang seperately comes to my mind. Actually any group that sometimes gets targeted, ought to be noticing all the aggressive attacks and how fast the GOP “base” turns to attack any group that they notice at the moment.
El Caganer
@Face: He’s one of the Flatlanders; also appeared in The Big Lebowski….what? Oh, sorry.
mr_gravity
@Face: He used to play guitar in Pink Floyd.
Quaker in a Basement
Rebranding 2.0!
Bobby Thomson
@Matt McIrvin: I saw that too and assumed it was a typo and he meant to say Republican. Unless this is a passive aggressive way of plugging e-ghazi.
Bobby Thomson
@oldster: it’s nonsensical to say the Democratic primaries are unstable. It’s also nonsensical to ask if Trump will “rebrand” the Republican Party as the party of white people. But Josh has huge blind spots and takes a long time to reach obvious conclusions. That’s why when he gets there you know the CW is shifting.
mdblanche
Anectodally I live in a city with a large Hispanic population and they are aware of Donald Trump and just what he thinks of them. A lot of the conversations in the community and the media are in Spanish, so most everyone else probably isn’t even aware of how much Latinos are already paying attention. I don’t speak Spanish well enough to understand too much of what I overhear, but the gist is unmistakeable.
Ruckus
@WaterGirl:
About the same for old white men. We aren’t all the same, neither is any other arbitrary group of humans. I’m old, white, male and far far to the left of many 30 yr olds. Bernie Sanders is even older, about as white, and far, far to the left of any republican that I know of. All of us, races, genders, whatevers are human. Arbitrary groupings are just that.
Even political groupings are arbitrary and not in the least actually descriptive of a portion of the members. All republicans are not racist. Yes they vote for racist politicians, some of whom are racist against the group they most likely would be placed in. And it’s not that we are all, all that complex, some of us are just stupid.
Bitter Scribe
Talk about dragging the party to the left…
satby
@OzarkHillbilly: words I never thought I’d live to see.