I promise I won’t post on this every day — but I’m going to come back to this pretty often until we get through the votes on the Iran deal.
Anyway — yesterday I asked everyone to call their Congressional representatives — Senators and Congresspeople alike — to thank them if they’ve already declared for the deal, to urge them to do so if they’re still (publicly) thinking about it, and, respectfully but very firmly, to give them grief if they’ve come down on the wrong side.
I’m asking again. Here are the House and Senate directories.
Today I’ve got a couple of new developments you can talk about when you do call.
First up, meet Gary Samore:
“I think President Obama’s strategy succeeded,” said Mr. Samore, who left his post on Monday. “He has created economic leverage and traded it away for Iranian nuclear concessions.”
Samore quit his job as head of United Against Nuclear Iran — a pressure group that worked to deepen sanctions against Iraq and that now, under its new head, old friend Joe Lieberman (D then I, but really R-Likud) opposes the Iran deal.
The key here is that Samore is not someone who just fell of the turnip truck, nor is he a squish about the sweetness and light that may follow an agreement:
Though he backs the accord as the most that can be achieved diplomatically, Mr. Samore is skeptical that the agreement will open a new chapter in American-Iranian relations.
“The best you can achieve with diplomacy is delay in the hope that at some point a new Iranian government emerges that is not committed to developing nuclear weapons,” he said.
And if that leadership does not materialize, Mr. Samore acknowledges that Iran might vastly expand its nuclear enrichment program after core elements of the agreement expire in 15 years.
He is also not convinced that Iran will continue to adhere to the accord once economic sanctions are lifted. Even so, he argues, the accord will put the United States in a stronger position to respond than a congressional rejection would.
“We will have bought a couple of years, and if Iran cheats or reneges we will be in an even better position to double down on sanctions or, if necessary, use military force,” Mr. Samore said. “If I knew for certain that in five years they would cheat or renege, I’d still take the deal.”
This is what “best available option” means: not that Lieberman and his herd of neo-con ilk can fart pixie dust and will away Iran’s political establishment, its institutional memory, and the broadly available knowledge of nuclear weapons design, but that we put ourselves in the most advantageous position we can to shape events as they unfold.
And in other news, it turns out that Iran is not, in fact, a monolithic Borg committed to the destruction of the United States and Israel. Who says so? None other than a reporter from that famously pro-Iran media organ, The Forward.*
Mr. Cohler-Esses’s reporting, coming as Congress prepares to vote on the nuclear agreement next month, presents a more nuanced view of Iran compared with the dark descriptions advanced by a number of Jewish-American advocacy groups that consider Iran a rogue enemy state…
“Ordinary Iranians with whom I spoke have no interest at all in attacking Israel,” Mr. Cohler-Esses wrote. “Their concern is with their own sense of isolation and economic struggle.”
Among some of Iran’s senior ayatollahs and prominent officials, he wrote, there is also dissent from the official line against Israel.
“No one had anything warm to say about the Jewish state,” he wrote. “But pressed as to whether it was Israel’s policies or its very existence to which they objected, several were adamant: It’s Israel’s policies.”
While he wrote that there was no freedom of the press in Iran, “freedom of the tongue has been set loose.”
“I was repeatedly struck by the willingness of Iranians to offer sharp, even withering criticisms of their government on the record, sometimes even to be videotaped doing so,” Mr. Cohler-Esses wrote.
There you have it, folks: the deal on the table — even if the Iranians break it — still works to the advantage of the US, according to one of the most expert and skeptical figures in this long-running debate. And the Iranians have a polity that is not in fact a unified autocracy bent on rogue violence, but is instead a much more complicated web of interests, beliefs and aspirations — exactly the kind of situation that offers opportunity for those deft enough to seek it out.
Oh — one more thing. Last night I got an email from someone I’ve never met, who thanked me for yesterday’s effort to get some calls into the Hill. He identified himself as someone who works on the senate side, and this is what he wrote:
We all hear the report every week on the top issues being called/written about and the breakdown. That message isn’t lost.
Your five minutes makes a difference. Go to it. Call your representatives. Let them know you’re paying attention.
Once more: the House and Senate directories.
*Snark, friends, if you’re not familiar with this pillar of New York Jewish newspapering.
Image: Giuseppe Arcimboldo, Winter, second half of the sixteenth century.
Valdivia
Thank you for posting this Tom!
The propaganda against this deal is so out of control yesterday I saw a spanish language christian paper from Latin America reporting that Obama was planning to attack Israel as retaliation for not backing the deal. This was being tweeted as fact all over the place. This is what we have to contend with so I for one think posting it at least once a week reminding us that we should call is a good idea.
Thanks again.
Turgidson
@Valdivia:
Egad. Yeah, attacking Israel is right on Obama’s to-do list, next to confiscating guns from all white men, rounding up GOP voters and sending them to FEMA death camps, forcibly seizing the means of production, implementing Sharia Law…I’m sure I’m forgetting a few.
J R in WV
Well, I guess there are more crazy people out there than just republican candidates and police officers, then.
Here in WV all our Congressional Representatives are now republican, and only one of our Senators is Democratic – the well known Catholic grease-ball, Joe Manchin. Joe is as liberal as that more famous Joe Lieberman.
He once shook my hand, because he started going around the room shaking hands and it would have looked bad if he skipped me. I probably hated it more then he did, he suspected I was a hippy because I had a pony-tail and a beard, but I knew he was a crooked politician.
I’ll call his office in the morning and give then an ear-full, including the remark that “even if they cheat in 5 years, I would take the deal” because it slows the process down.
Maybe it will do some good… I doubt it, but the call is free.
Valdivia
@Turgidson: The zombie lies and craziness is on steroids for this one. It did worry me that lots of normal latinos I follow were tweeting this as a fact and making worried noises. If the propaganda is working at that level I can only imagine what the Congresscritters are hearing on the phone, so important to keep caling!
Omnes Omnibus
@Turgidson: Forced gay marriage.
@Tom Levenson: Thanks for posting about this again. Please keep it up. I think it deserves a push like we did on the ACA.
Tom Levenson
@J R in WV: Manchin’s on the right side of this one. Call him and with great sweetness thank him for that. Link: http://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2015/07/26/democratic-senator-leaning-toward-support-of-iran-deal
mzinformation
I wrote an email to Cory Gardner (Senate) and told him that I wanted him to support the President on the Iran deal and I also told him what I think of his Republican colleagues regarding their level of cynicism – which is beyond belief. I also called Diana DeGette (Congress) and told her I want her to support the President. Apparently she is still undecided and “doing research”. This political situation keeps me up nights. I’m beginning to hate them all.
Baud
OT: Reddit is freaking out over a massive industrial explosion in China but news apparently hasn’t confirmed the magnitude. Assuming the hype is remotely accurate (big if), it looks real bad.
Baud
OT: Reddit is freaking out over a massive industrial explosion in China but news apparently hasn’t confirmed the magnitude. Assuming the hype is remotely accurate (big if), it looks real bad.
srv
As long as Trump becomes President, I can support this deal until the appropriate time comes for bombing them back to the stone age.
Valdivia
@Baud: The video I saw was insane, like a big ball of fire overwhelming the sky.
Baud: Here’s the video: https://twitter.com/RobPulseNews/status/631513244247699457
beltane
@srv: You do realize that this puts you significantly to the left of Sen. Schumer on this issue. What a RINO.
Baud
@Valdivia:
Haven’t seen the video yet. They’re saying it was in a heavily populated area. Don’t know if that’s accurate.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: I saw some video clips of it over at LGF; it’s really a big explosion.
Mike J
@Valdivia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHQPX2TJPQc
mtiffany
And if the Iranians are caught cheating or otherwise renege on the deal, that works even more to US advantage and lends credence to the hawks’ argument that resorting to military force is the only realistic option. Of course, if the Iranians do keep their word and are proved to be trustworthy… well that’s probably what really keeps the neocons awake at night.
Baud
@Mike J:
Damn.
Robert M.
My senators are Pat Roberts and Jerry Moran, and my representative is Tim Huelskamp. They’re all down-the-party-line Republicans. So, serious question: why call or write if there’s no chance they’ll vote with the President? If I do call, how do I start a productive conversation?
mtiffany
@Robert M.:
To at least let your voice be heard and your opinion be known. As he said in yesterday’s post on this topic (emphasis mine):
You’re guaranteed to fail if you never try.
WaterGirl
Thanks, Tom. I called yesterday and they took my name, so I don’t suppose it will do any good to call again.
I just read this blurb at Steve Benen’s place:
At first glance, I read that as Just 14 Americans approve of the way Congress is doing it’s job, and I thought, yeah, that’s about right.
kindness
I’ve got a TeaHaddist for a House Representative so I won’t be e-mailing him. Waste of bandwidth and time.
Mike G
@mtiffany:
Of course, that didn’t stop the neocon scumbags when they had a war-boner to invade Iraq. Lies about “He wouldn’t let the UN inspectors in”, “aluminum tubes” and he’s-so-trustworthy-Colin-Powell waving vials of talcum powder at the UN; and unmeetable demands like “Prove you don’t have nukes” (how do you prove a negative?).
Remember, they brag that they “make their own reality” through aggressive propaganda and a gutlessly-collaborative corporate media. The only solution is to never, ever let them near political power again.
JustRuss
Yet Lieberman and his Republican BFFs insist the deal is the worst thing since Benghazi(!). It’s almost as if you’re suggesting they’re a bunch of partisan hacks who would oppose any deal with Iran that was proposed by Obama.
GHayduke (formerly lojasmo)
Klobuchar, Franken, and Walz, all on board. Amy took some twisting, I gather.
rmirth
I did! I called both my senators, Coons and Carper (Delaware) and urged them to vote for the Iran deal. Carper’s staffer said he’s leaning towards support, Coons staffer was polite but noncommittal.first time I’ve called my elected reps…
bystander
Jeopardy, topic Classical Music: This US network created an orchestra in 1937; now it brings us Celebrity Apprentice.
BBA
The same United Against Nuclear Iran that got a lawsuit against it dismissed on national security grounds? Thus revealing itself as a front for one of the three-letter agencies?
What’s Lieberman doing there? He’s well to the right of the CIA, and the Mossad for that matter.
Renie
I live in NY so I thanked Senator Gillibrand and reminded Senator Schumer he is the senator of New York not Israel.
Cheryl Rofer
@J R in WV: Actually, Manchin is thinking about supporting the deal, so your call can make a difference!
Debbie
Pretty impressive coming from The Forward.
Gladgrace
As a lifelong Nebraskan in the First District, there is nothing I can do. Nothing. Jeff Fortenberry is actually a smart guy. He knows who is paying for his elections. He feigns interest in what the non-Rs think (after all, Lincoln is a teensy bit more liberal than the rest of the state- he even has staffers call & pretend they care) but he NEVER votes that way. Dr. Ben Sasse, who should know better, is an R first and a thinking scholar maybe, 23rd. He votes despite his brains, just like Fortenberry. They are evil, not stupid. Deb Fischer is just stupid. Always was, always will be. Luckily, lots of Rs in the state tell her how to vote. I can send emails every day, twice on Sunday, and NOTHING WILL CHANGE.
Thoughts for the hostage? I can’t move, my husband has tenure.
Big Picture Pathologist
Thanks for the reminder, Tom.
And as an owner of a book on Arcimboldo, his paintings kick ludicrous of amounts of ass (if they don’t give you nightmares afterwards).
Duane
Bonnie
That was really a nice picture of Lieberman. Thanks for sharing.