Oh, look, a True Detectives connection, per NYMag:
… True Detective is a show that cribs from a lot of extratextual sources, and this is no exception. The Courir de Mardi Gras, or “Mardi Gras run,” is a real tradition that takes place in the rural Cajun communities of southern Louisiana (the celebration was also depicted in a season-two episode of Treme). Courir de Mardi Gras is a run beginning at sunrise on Fat Tuesday (the English translation of Mardi Gras, which this year falls tomorrow, March 4), and traditionally acted as a means for participants to collect ingredients for a communal gumbo. Horseback riders would stop at farms throughout the community and pick up ingredients like chicken, rice, and sausage. Nowadays, the celebration has evolved into a more symbolic parade, with costumed revelers on foot, on horseback, and in trailers traveling the countryside from farm to farm and “dancing for a chicken.”…
‘Course, right now it feels like we’ve already lived through a particularly harsh Lent… but then my Irish Catholic nana used to say that Lent fell when it did so we would know there were only forty more days to go before the sweet relief of Spring…
raven
The also included Courir de Mardi Gras in Treme.
Amir Khalid
I saw this rather strange story about the German celebration of Mardi Gras in Salon, of all places. The writer is apparently unaware that “Fasching” is one of several German names for Mardi Gras. And the picture shows a sports personality, retired Bayern Munich (and Arsenal) goalkeeper Oliver Kahn, celebrating Oktoberfest in Bavaria.
raven
They also
Mustang Bobby
Time was that they carried the Shrove Tuesday pancake race from Liberal, Kansas — which is a town, not just an oxymoron — on the radio.
In my current state of sobriety, I guess I’m better off with pancakes than bourbon.
DaveInOz
I was behind a car from Western Australia today with the number plate 1DFH 442. Why did I immediately think of Balloon Juice?
Amir Khalid
This is a lot of harrumphing to waste on a pleasant little story about a magic seagull.
raven
After detailing why Obama is so weak on foriegn policy, Mr Scarborough is hammering the Obama critics! I’m stunned.
NotMax
Kind of an oddball thing which I guess is Lent related. Normally pay no attention to TV commercials, but had Archer on Monday night while I was taping it as wasn’t sure there was enough tape left to fit it before had to switch to a new cassette. Normally tape ’em and watch later with a friend who also likes it, fast forwarding through the commercials.
In the same commercial break, there was an ad for
the fish sandwich at Carls, Jr.
the fish sandwich at Burger King
the fish sandwich at McDonald’s.
Not right next to one another, but all 3 within the same break.
(Yes, still use a VCR. Sue me.)
raven
@NotMax: I use mine to change the channels on my PIP!
PurpleGirl
AL:
… but then my Irish Catholic nana used to say that Lent fell when it did so we would know there were only forty more days to go before the sweet relief of Spring…
That’s because winter isn’t over in the NY until it snows on Easter in April.
Schlemizel
@NotMax:
Growing up in a predominantly Catholic city, particularly pre-Vat II, it was impossible to not know Lent was arriving. The sad part was there were no fun French types around, mostly Irish. Coupled with the rock-ribbed Lutheran & Prairie Methodists that meant no party before the break.
I do miss the turtle soup though. It was darn good but we managed to eat them near extinction & it is now impossible to find on any menu.
OzarkHillbilly
@raven: I use mine as a TV stand.
Gotta love that it is Fat Tuesday and my Baton Rouge son has to deal with sleet today.
raven
@OzarkHillbilly: I was just watching a cop do the wobble on the Nola website!
NotMax
@Schlemizel
Again, was barely paying attention, but pretty sure all three mentioned that their sandwich was cod, which I interpret as a new, trendy way to pronounce pollock.
PurpleGirl
@NotMax: I’ve the Burger King ad and it says the sandwich is cod. Haven’t seen the other two ads.
Schlemizel
@NotMax:
Won’t be long before its all talapia. We have pretty much fished out the oceans but we grow talpia at sewage treatment plants (yes, seriously) so there will be plenty of them.
Schlemizel
I hate having the TV on in the moring but the woman dumb enough to marry me is up early today & has the local ‘news’ on. They are doing a story about how the situation in Ukrainia is affecting one local family! Its tough being trite. A different channel news last night teased a story about how bad weather had hurt car sales but “we’ll tell you about one local dealer who will bring the cars to you!”
UGH! it just keeps getting worse and worse. That horrible sound you hear is the sludge beneath the barrle being scraped.
OzarkHillbilly
@raven: STL has a rather large Mardi Gras celebration (IIRC 200,000) I used to partake of every year. As observer, participant and a couple years even as a parade marshal. All our cops were humorless d!cks.
Hawes
I feel like I’ve given up being outdoors for Lent already.
Scott S.
@Mustang Bobby: Many years ago, I worked at one of the stations in Liberal that broadcast that race. Never got to see it because everyone insisted I had to run the board at the station for it. :/
raven
@OzarkHillbilly: I’m into Louisiana for the history, food and fishing. I wouldn’t care to be at Mardi Gras.
Tommy
When I was at LSU we’d always head not to the French Quarter but some really small town in the deep south of the state. Cajun to the core. The Courir de Mardi Gras is a very real thing. And a very cool thing. When friends and family members head to the state it always pains me they spend their time in the French Quarter and don’t venture out to explore the state.
The Cajun culture is both amazing, and unfortunately, disappearing as we speak. Very sad!
raven
@Tommy: We went to the Tobasco factory a few years back and were saddened to see that they have had to glass in the whole tour route!
Tommy
@raven: Oh there is so much to do in the state. I always suggest the Honey Island Swamp tours, outside of Slidell. Folks are like why would I want to see a swamp? I explain that (1) it might be one of the most beautiful places they will ever see and (2) the swamps and wetlands in Louisiana are losing a football field a day. See it while you can.
Tommy
@raven: I’ve not been there since the mid-90s but they used to let you literally walk around wherever you wanted to go.
jurassicpork
The response to our last crisis was encouraging but we’re not out of the woods, yet, peeps. A little more help would be immensely appreciated.
satby
Haven’t been back to Lundi and Mardi Gras since before Katrina. The whole Gulf coast celebrates. I need to go back!
danielx
Mardi Gras and CPAC in the same week…there’s some sort of symmetry here, although I can’t quite pin it down.
OzarkHillbilly
@raven: Yo tambien, amigo. It was a good time when I was younger but as the years went by it became less and less fun. The last time I went (15 years?) was on a Fat Tuesday and the crowd was not….
I’ll put it this way, as always girls were showing their tits. Some were up on the shoulders of friends and one gal in particular practically had her shirt ripped off her and guys were grabbing at her. She was laughing but I saw rape and figured it was only a matter of time before I punched some jackass who forgot the meaning of “No.”, so I left.
When I finally get down to LA (next year I hope), it’ll be post Mardi Gras and the boy and I are going to spend more than a little time in a canoe floating the bayous, listening to gators eat turtles, and exploring the wonders of real Cajun cooking.
Tommy
@satby: I’ve not been back for Mardi Gras for years. I prefer to head back for Jazz Fest. As big music fest go it is dirt cheap and only a month after Mardis Gras, so it still has a little of that “feel.” Oh and his guy that makes this crawfish stuffed bread might be the best thing ever.
OzarkHillbilly
@OzarkHillbilly: Please release me, let me go…. from moderation. I’m innocent, INNOCENT I TELL YOU!!!
Cervantes
@OzarkHillbilly: If it makes him complain, however, I’ll be surprised!
My very best wishes to him: Laissez les bons temps rouler!
Cervantes
@danielx:
Well, one is a festival in which the participants are uninhibited, don’t spend a lot of time using their minds, and do some pretty outrageous things with their bodies; some even let their “freak flag” fly. The other is a parade in New Orleans.
raven
Nice article from The Bitter Southerner
How Mardi Gras Has Stirred the Southern Melting Pot for 400 Years
danielx
@Cervantes:
Win.
Omnes Omnibus
@raven: Nice.
OzarkHillbilly
@raven: Good read. Thanx.
Elizabelle
@Tommy:
Honey Island Swamp, hmm? Goes on the to see in 2014-15 list.
Good idea about celebrating Mardi Gras in cajun Louisiana, not New Orleans. Also on the bucket list.
Linnaeus
Reminds me to get some paczki today.
Paul in KY
@DaveInOz: You’ve been spending too much time here?
Paul in KY
@raven: You have to love crowds. Huge crowds of people everywhere. I was at 78 & 82 ones.
Paul in KY
@Tommy: At end of October is Voodoo Music fest on grounds of City Park. Great 3 day rock festival. I went last year & hope to return.
Tommy
@Elizabelle: The swamp tour is wonderful. Hope it is still there. The nice thing is it isn’t that far from New Orleans so if you have a car it is easy to get to. I am sure there are many, many others. That is just the one I went on a few times.
gelfling545
@Schlemizel: Didn’t the Bishop give a dispensation from lenten fast & abstinence for St. Patrick’s day. The Bishop here always did.
Mnemosyne
Heading over to the Cuban bakery to pick up the King Cakes for my office. Because that’s how we roll in the City of Angels when it comes to Mardi Gras.
Tommy
@Mnemosyne: I love you got Cubans making your King Cake. I assume it does have a “baby” inside :). I didn’t order one this year, but I usually do. They are pretty darn good, plus the story behind them (and Mardis Gras in general) is fun to explain.
It always stuns me, even Catholics, that don’t understand the story behind Fat Tuesday, Mardis Gras, and Lent. I mean I am an Atheist but I do kind of like a Religion that lets you get the sin out of you for two weeks before Lent starts :).
Origuy
I was in Moscow last year during Maslenitsa, which is the Russian Orthodox version of Mardi Gras. There they eat blinis. No one was showing their tits as it was still bloody cold. Meatless days start a week before Lent for devout Orthodox. This year Orthodox Lent started Monday. I wonder if Putin observes it; he makes a show of sucking up to the church.
Betsy
Does anyone have a math background? I need help making a decision that involves a kind of a bet.
We have to pay $100/month mortgage insurance because our down payment was less than 20% of the price. Once we think our mortgage balance reaches 75%, we can order an appraisal to for $325 and if it shows the balance is 75% the mortgage insurance is cancelled and we save the $100/month, starting immediately. I think we are almost there. But we lose the $325 appraisal fee either way. I did some comps on our house value and it seems like we MIGHT be in the ballpark.
So the one issue I’m now confronting is: when to order the appraisal? … soon or later? …. this month or next? Or wait six months?
Any statisticians or math people want to help with an equation?
WaterGirl
@Betsy: What company holds your mortgage? If they have an on-line system like bank of america does, you should be able to see exactly how much you still owe on your mortgage, as well as the original mortgage. Then the math should be easy!
Paul in KY
@Betsy: I would think that once you have paid for 21% of house that mortgage insurance should come off.
Comrade Mary
@PurpleGirl:
I remember our family travelling from Toronto to Montreal to visit my relatives on an April Easter weekend ca. 1975-1976. Leaving Toronto on Good Friday it was a cool spring day, when we arrived in Montreal it was summer, reaching 90 degrees on Saturday, and when we exited the train in Toronto late on Sunday we faced a blizzard.
I am so ready for this winter to end. Brutal beyond brutal.
Schlemizel
@gelfling545: yes!
“THE LAWS ARE MANDATED BY GOD AND ARE ETERNAL!”
“Except for special occasions when we decide its a-okay to ignore the law!”
They used to run real gambling at St. Pat’s church on the East Side as a fund raiser. I asked my dad how they could get away with that – he explained that 20% of all the cops in town went to St. Pat’s & 90% of the rest went to some other Catholic church so nobody was going to get excommunicated for enforcing the States law :)
Cervantes
@Betsy:
Feel free to ask if you need further help.
Best regards,
Elizabeth Warren
Betsy
@WaterGirl: Thanks, I know how much I owe on the mortgage — that part is easy enough, I agree. But the relevant number is not the original loan, it’s the appraised value. That’s the unknown. When I get to 75% of appraised value I can cancel the mortgage insurance.
So I need to calculate which is a better bet — odds of getting to an appraised value which will cost me $350 whether or not I reach it, vs. waiting x more months and paying $100 extra per month waited. Looking for a math geek to help with an equation that manages the risk. It’s just out of my mental reach!
Betsy
@Paul in KY: In the case of our mortgage, it’s 75%, thanks.
Betsy
@Paul in KY: In the case of our mortgage, it’s 75%, thanks.
eta: sorry, it posted twice
ET
AAAAAAHHHH, Mardi Gras day on the neutral ground at the corner of Napoleon and St. Charles. Those were the days.
Betsy
@Cervantes: Right, I know the rules about when the PMI comes off, thank you for the link. It’s actually *not* the loan amount or house sales price that I’m concerned with. That would be easy enough to figure and compare to the outstanding balance. Both of those figures are known.
I’m dealing with an unknown number — the current appraised value of the house.
For that, I have to request an appraisal, and pay about $300-$400 for it.
The analysis I’m trying to solve for is when does (cost of appraisal) x (risk of not hitting the number) exceed or equal (continuing cost of paying $100 per month in mortgage insurance).
There, I’ve put it in a math expression, but somehow I don’t think my math expression is accurate enough. That’s what I’m looking for help with.
WaterGirl
@Betsy: What does zillow.com say your house is worth? You could also look at zillow to see what similar houses are going for in your area.
Also, do you know any real estate folks who might be willing to give you a ballpark estimate?
Both those things might provide some clues that might help with your decision.
Mnemosyne
@Betsy:
I am sadly not a math geek, but would you be able to guesstimate what your new appraised value might turn out to be by looking on something like Zillow? That may help with the decision, or at least the equation.
WaterGirl
@Betsy: I am wondering who would get to decide whether you had reached the magic 75% amount? Because if it’s your mortgage holder, I would think thing might be stacked against you. I know Bank of America estimated the worth of my sister’s house at the amount that would allow them to loan my sister more money, even though it didn’t make sense for the actual worth of the house.
Or does your mortgage lender get an unbiased outside appraisal?
Betsy
@Mnemosyne: Great idea. So, I’ve looked and the Zillow and Trulia estimates are WILDLY different. One is $20,000 below the number I need to hit, and the other is $25,000 above the number I need to hit. I also did some (self-estimated, probably all washed up) comps on recent sales of similar houses.
If I had to guess, if we request the appraisal, we’re maybe 40% likely to hit the number we need.
Thinking out loud … if the appraisal costs us $350, and we hit the number, we’re done and we can start saving $100/month immediately. Cost is recovered within about 3 months and all is dandy.
If the appraisal costs us $350 and we don’t hit the number, we are out $350 … and we keep paying PMI. But now at least we have a number to aim for.
I do have one other idea … We could ask an appraiser privately and separately to do a set of comps for $150 and that would give us some numbers to think about before we spring for a full appraisal. Plus if the comps looked good for us, we could hand them to the bank’s appraiser when s/he comes to look at the house …
Betsy
@WaterGirl: yes, we pay for the appraiser’s fee but/and the appraiser is independent.
Also it’s a credit union so I believe the institution is not quite as likely to knife us in the back …
VOR
Microsoft names Mark Penn as Chief Strategy Officer. Yes, the Mark Penn who did such an amazing job on Hilary’s 2008 campaign. Time to sell your Microsoft stock.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/03/business/mark-penn-ex-clinton-aide-moves-in-a-shake-up-at-microsoft.html?hpw&rref=technology
Cervantes
@Betsy: Let t be a number of months. You probably have some idea of what your house is worth today (t = 0). To go further, you need some idea of when (t = T) its appraised value will reach N (your magic number).
From now until time t = T, your cost will be 100t + 325, after which your cost will be zero.
Liz Warren and I have no magic equation to tell you how to estimate T. You need a realtor (or some such tool) with knowledge of your local housing market and home type. If Zillow or some such tells you that your house is already (or still) worth more than N, and if you trust Zillow or some such, then your T = 0 and you should pay for the appraisal now. Whereas if your house is not yet worth N, then you can either keep checking Zillow or some such; or you find a reliable and friendly realtor to help you estimate T.
(I sincerely doubt this comment can have helped you. Sorry.
Also, I pointed you to CFPB because its ruling percentages seem to differ from yours.)
Paul in KY
@Betsy: I guess that’s what you signed, but it seems to me if you had to get the stuff anyway, because you couldn’t come up with owning 20% of house, that when you do own 20% of house, it shouldn’t be necessary any longer.
Betsy
Thanks Cervantes and everyone for lending your minds and helping out. It definitely helped.
I will think things through with your comments in mind (probably my biggest problem is over-thinking, anyway)
Paul in KY
@Betsy: Best wishes!