For what it’s worth, I think this and this are bullshit, but I’d like to see Romney derided as boring, conventional, a sell-out, a RINO (!) when he does the sane thing and picks one of his buddies like TPaw or RPort as his VP.
The conventional wisdom had been that Romney was going to be picking a running mate in a coin-flip race. Well that’s not the case now. How does that change his mind? Does it help Paul Ryan? Does Romney go outside the short list and go somewhere else (Rubio, Christie?).
The bottom line is in just three weeks, he was going to be picking his running mate from a position of strength (and perhaps that favored a guy like Tim Pawlenty, meaning he could pick a partner and a friend). Now, he’s picking one from a position of weakness.
The reason Ryan had earlier been deemed unlikely was that Romney intended to run a campaign focused entirely on the economy. His reasoning was sound enough. Romney’s status as the challenger during an economic crisis with mass unemployment was a gigantic asset, but it was (aside from his growing Superpac advantage) his only asset. America still hated the Republican Party, hated its Congressional wing, and bitterly opposed the fiscal priorities it championed. Romney understood that he needed to bring together nearly every voter dispirited with the status quo, and not only those also eager to join a crusade to smash the welfare state.
[….]In any case, the conservative drumbeat for Ryan has grown so overwhelming that it’s no longer even clear that Romney could turn Ryan down for an Incredibly Boring White Guy, even if he wants to. The Republican Party belongs to Ryan.
I vividly remember seeing this video on “Fridays” when I was 11. The set reminded me of Sesame Street.
Dan
That was the last moment that the Rolling Stones were great. They remained good for a few more years, but were never again great.
Dan
That was the last moment that the Rolling Stones were great. They remained good for a few more years, but were never again great.
Violet
That’s hilarious. Christie and Rubio are going to get their feelings hurt. Who did Ryan blow to get this kind of paean to his manliness?
General Stuck
Romney is starting to sound like Nixon on his petard. Entering the Clownosphere with surrender monkey blegging.
Shorter Romney – Let’s just talk about how Obama is the shits, and leave me out of it.
Beyond arrogance, beyond entitlement, it is the white hot love of a man for himself.
Tonybrown74
If RMoney actually picks Paul Ryan as VP, I may seriously reconsider going back to religion. Because that would almost prove there is a God and that She loves me.
Ben Franklin
Yeah. I don’t think we should get too engrossed in our own propaganda. Romney is weakened, for the time being. His Rovers are feckless and he is a jellyfish, but we’ve got almost three months to let him up from the mat. DON’T let him up. Keep caving in his ribs and pommeling his coconut.
MikeBoyScout
Rmoney is running scared; running away from his record, his very reason for living.
Good!
gogol's wife
@General Stuck:
Very funny.
Turgidson
Why do these stupid articles always say or infer that Romney was, at any point, in a position of strength? He’s never consistently led in the polls and has been consistenly behind in almost all the key swing states. If he was ever in a position of strength, I missed it. And there’s no reason to assume he’d be strong later, unless you’re a Villager moran promoting a false horse race narrative.
Oops, answered my own question.
Foggy F Follansbye
@General Stuck: Remember during the primaries when Republicans wanted assurances Romney would “go there”, there being Wright, Ayres etc?
And now Romney is having to give it all up, because the attacks on him have been so devastating.
Amazing.
Comrade Jake
From the same link Stuck posted:
Oh yeah, I bet Obama’s deathly afraid of Mittens running Jeremiah Wright ads.
Something tells me the WH is laughing its ass off after this week.
Violet
@Ben Franklin: Grind him into dust and make him pay for the urn to hold the remains.
General Stuck
Not going to link to it, but Breitbart is claiming Jon Huntsman Jr. will give a speech at the DNC convention. If true, suck on that Holy Joe, and what goes around comes around.
Lev
Ah, Waiting On A Friend. Tattoo You has a pretty great second half, the first half is mostly meh.
Anyway, I actually am one of those people who sticks up for Dirty Work. Flawed, sure, but since Jagger was checked out at that point it’s essentially a Keith Richards album with guest vocals by Mick. I’ve always been partial to Keith myself of the two.
Ben Franklin
@Violet:
The sooner he joins Joseph Smith, the better.
BillinGlendaleCA
@General Stuck: I thought Breitbart was still dead.
Valdivia
Loving the Stones references today DougJ.
Turgidson
@General Stuck:
Bwahahahaha.
No fan of Jon “I heart Paul Ryan’s budget the mostest” Hunstman, but….HAHAHAHAHA.
We’ll see, though. I doubt this.
jl
I laughed this morning, a good natured laugh, except for the vindictiveness in it.
Fivethirtyeight blog says Obama chances up to 73.3 percent, expected electoral vote count is up to 303.9, and my quick and dirty calc on 330 plus electoral count rising to a little over 35 percent.
And this morning Romney Hood camp whining that this cannot be happening because there has been no ‘sea change’ that could cause such a thing.
Maybe the European trip, and damage from tax and Bain hammering was bad enough to cause a black out. If they have woken up, maybe some one can explain it to them.
I’ve never drunk enough likker to have a black out like that, I’m sure getting filled in regarding damage afterwards is a big shock.
General Stuck
@BillinGlendaleCA:
He was, but got better.
Hunter Gathers
@General Stuck: Shorter Mitt Romney – Please Stop Hitting Me Or I’ll Tell My Dad!
Baud
@Comrade Jake:
Nah. They’re going to be all business until after election day. Doesn’t mean we can’t have fun though.
jl
@General Stuck:
I do not think the Obama ads are personal attacks, and I make that case strongly to anyone I meet who says so.
They are very relevant to policy.
I hope everyone else here makes the same case. Edit: that these Obama ads are very relevant to the kind of policies Romney will pursue and the kind of treatment they will get in a Romney Hood economy and a Romney Hood society.
Comrade Jake
I think the best part of Noonan’s latest was the suggestion that Romney embrace the “Romney Hood” label, because so many people have a positive view of Robin Hood.
Makes you wonder how many scotchs she had before firing up the ole typewriter.
different-church-lady
Man oh man… Thurston Howell III and the Pretty Boy who wants to throw Grandma to the free market wolves. I need to stock up on popcorn before the prices skyrocket.
BillinGlendaleCA
@General Stuck: You owe me a new keyboard.
danimal
@General Stuck: Reading TPM and other sites today, it sure looks like the Huntsmans were behind the Reid tax claim leak.
It sure would be sweet if Reid’s source came out and had a plausible paper trail. And it’s looking like that is possible.
Culture of Truth
Paul Krugman:
beltane
The new line from the Romney campaign is that the convention will be the mother of all conventions, so full of win that we’ll all fall in love with Mitt http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/10/1118669/-Romney-campaign-sets-convention-expectations
Baud
Obama 2012: Hope and Change and Schadenfreude
Brachiator
You do realize that “conventional wisdom” is fancy talk for “shit that hack journalists make up,” don’t you.
I get the impression that Mittens keeps his decision making process under tighter control than his tax returns.
And Romney’s supposed former position of strength was little more than bluster reinforced by laziness and buttkissing by the punditocracy.
Soon will come the inane chatter that Mitten’s VP choice will be someone exactly like him. Or someone who will smooth out his rough edges. Or someone with impeccable Tea Party credentials. Or not.
I don’t much care who Romney picks (and do VP picks have to release their tax returns?). It’s not going to make Mittens look good or wise or presidential or whatever the fuck he’s trying to sell this week.
Tonybrown74
@Violet:
I want to see that mother fucker beaten to a pulp. I want him to break down into tears on national television. I want to watch with glee as he has to stand up on a podium with red, puffy eyes to give a concession speech.
I want to see that man BROKEN.
And I will not be satisfied, or complacent, until I see that happen.
different-church-lady
@General Stuck:
If Big Bed Vetting is reporting it, then it’s almost a lead pipe cinch Huntsman will be nowhere near the DNC convention.
Spaghetti Lee
@jl:
And what’s 100% – 73%. Why, 27%, of course.
MattF
@General Stuck: “We have to agree to stop talking about things that I can’t lie about.” I just had to laugh when I saw that.
eric
Point of parliamentary privilege: I would like to say that not only has Mitt demonstrated that his press clippings were over-inflated PR, but I think he has the the potential to show Americans that the mighty-moneyed-mogul is not as smart as the size of his bank account might imply. Mitt (see Donald as well) does not do well when he cant bend the rules in his favor and against the other guy. There is NO EFFING WAY that Obama is gonna let up or agree not to go after Romney’s weakness — in fact, i would not be shocked to see this whiny a$$ interview end up in an Obama ad: “Mitt Romney said he would release taxes (show old clip) but now he does not want to talk about them (show this clip); Mitt Romney said his business experience matters (show old clip), but now he wont talk about it (show this clip); Mitt Romney wants his Olympic experience to matter (show clip), but now he wont talk about the past (show this clip); what does Mitt Romney believe in? We dont know because he wont talk about it.”
Tom65
I’m seriously starting to wonder about the convention. At this point, Sarah the Half-Term Princess could sweep in and grab the whole thing.
EriktheRed
Do you mean, “Fridays” with Micheal Richards and Larry David or “Friday Night Videos”?
different-church-lady
@Brachiator:
My maintenance and repair budget is limitless, and I spend it for you.
General Stuck
@jl:
Personally, I don’t care what you call them. Long as they work.
Though I do agree that Romney’s business career he is touting is totally fair game, as are is finances, since he is claiming to be some economic/finance wizard that can shat out new jobs any time he likes. I don’t know why the republicans would call those issues unfair attacks, except maybe cause they are working. I pretty much accept any tactic by pols to win an election, long as they aren’t complete fabrications like the Swift Boaters, and depend on the invisible hand of potential blow back as the only regulator in the thunderdome.
Turgidson
@jl:
Until recently Romney was running on his supposed business acumen.
I, for one, remember 2004. Kerry made an issue of his war heroism in that campaign. The Republican smear factory turned it into a liability via disgraceful lies. I don’t remember Kerry crying uncle like Mittens. Nor do I remember him receiving much sympathy from pundits/commentators etc.
The Obama campaign is telling the truth, the messy unvarnished truth (with some embellishment, sure), about Romney’s self-proclaimed chief qualification for the presidency, and Romney thinks it should be out of bounds now? Just wow. Epic.fail.
Romney’s campaign is like a months-long version of the classic Simpsons scene where Sideshow Bob keeps walking into rakes and getting smacked in the face. What a boob.
Tonybrown74
OMG! I’m going to have to watch Tweety’s show tonight, aren’t I?
And I’m going to like it, too, huh?
jl
@Culture of Truth: None of those economists are credible on macroeconomic policy anymore. Sadly, Taylor once was credible.
Read Krugman and Mark Thoma on the sad case of John Taylor’s evolution.
Anyone want a good ‘conservative’ macro analysis, read Robert Hall.
Though Hall does not reach conventional reactionary GOP conclusions on every and all things, so I think he has been disowned.
There is no organized respectable (semi, quasi, pseudo or otherwise) conservatism in the US anymore. Simply incoherent and deranged reactionary croakings and shrieks.
Edit: the Econbrowser archive has some good analysis of what has happened to John Taylor, also too, in addition.
JGabriel
__
__
Violet:
Ayn Rand’s dusty dessicated corpse.
.
Spaghetti Lee
@General Stuck:
A “pledge” with a Republican is worth less than the paper it’s printed on. We’d be hearing within hours about how Romney dragging out the ghosts of Rev. Wright and Bill Ayers is not, in fact, a “personal attack”, while Obama pointing out the plain English of the tax plan Mitt created would be the personalest attack of all.
Greg
@General Stuck:
This is to start pushing the meme that the Huntsmans are secret liberals. The rumors that one of them (Sr. or Jr.) is Reid’s source are getting spread around, and the right-wing-o-sphere needs to have a reason to completely disregard anything they say.
BGinCHI
Debates.
Romney vs Obama
Ryan vs Biden or Pawlenty vs Biden
I can’t wait to see these. The GOPs brilliant ideas ought to sound pretty clear on those stages.
geg6
OT, but TIME has suspended Fareed Zakaria for plaigiarism. He admits it. Jeebus. Is no one in the msm anything but a grifter? I actually thought he was one of the better ones, especially when it comes to CNN.
Comrade Jake
@Culture of Truth:
Yglesias had an awesome line about Mankiw’s role in that:
Effing brilliant.
Culture of Truth
It’s not too late to nominate Ron Paul you know
Brachiator
@different-church-lady: Ha. Works either way.
kindness
Tatoo You was a really good album. I was happy as the previous couple hadn’t been so hot. Of course, I didn’t know what was coming down the pike so….
1980…Carter lost, Reagan won & the US started it’s long slide to serfdom. Romney fits very well in that narrative.
At least the Grateful Dead were still going strong then. Now…well Jerry lives in my heart (and in my i-pod).
Baud
@geg6:
I’m surprised too. He just comes off as more intelligent than that.
raven
@kindness:
if the thunder don’t get ya
then the lightin will. . .
Davis X. Machina
@Baud: Is “Schadenfreude” the German word for ‘drones’?
Dennis SGMM
Romney’s “not in the face” plea may actually, finally, be enough to make Republicans stay at home on election day.
mclaren
Please… Please it be Paul Ryan. Oh, pretty please, with a cherry on top. Paul Ryan, Paul Ryan, that would be so awesome: Paul Ryan can explain why seniors have to eat catfood so we can give rich people a tax cut while the Mittster explains how making millions of dollars by destroying jobs and killing unemployed workers when their health insurance shuts off is good for America.
This would be so awesome, it would be like a pair of butchers trying to get steers to vote for them. “First, we’ll gut you,” says Paul Ryan. “Then we’ll slice you open and hang your bleeding carcass on a meathook!” says Romney. “So VOTE FOR US!”
Baud
@Davis X. Machina:
Possibly. Doesn’t every German word relate to the military in some way?
The Other Chuck
@Baud:
Zakaria _is_ intelligent. And over the years, increasingly pompous and arrogant, which apparently it turns out he now uses to, ah, “supplement” his intelligence.
Carl Nyberg
Here’s my slightly outside-the-box guess for Romney’s VP nominee: Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin.
It allows Romney to take a moderate with a credible record from a Midwestern state. And it gives the Right Wing yahoo the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate.
The Right Wing gets a Senate nomination they might not have gotten.
Thompson gets spared the humiliation of losing in the GOP primary.
And Romney gets a moderate and a candidate who isn’t totally expected.
But, alas, Romney is Romney. I think he’d like to go with Portman.
But I’m starting to wonder, who wants to be Romney’s running mate?
Remember, Reagan declined to be Ford’s running mate. Let’s look at the history of people who accepted the #2 spot on the losing ticket: Palin, Edwards, Lieberman, Kemp, Quayle, Bentsen and Ferraro.
How many of these people are remembered fondly? How many had careers that continued to improve? Walter Mondale did OK, sorta. Bob Dole did well.
I think the better candidates may be slow returning Romney’s phone call at this point.
raven
@Dennis SGMM: Chieu Hoi’n motherfucker!
jl
@Comrade Jake:
“The Obama administration really has changed its tune on this “unit root” controversy, and it’s interesting that Mankiw has also changed his mind. Normally the problem in intellectual life is that people hesitate to confess to error even when refuted by events.”
That passage indicates to me that Yglesias does not know what he is talking about. The ‘unit root’ controversy is a red herring, and any policy wonk or macroeconomist who makes a big hoo haw about it shows they do not know enough about time series analysis, or modern macroececonometrics to say anything useful.
sorry, I am pulling rank here.
I looked for that Yglesias post but couldn’t find that text. Do you have a link?
Spaghetti Lee
@mclaren:
I think you mean “Oh no, Right Wing, Please don’t pick Paul Ryan! We, the Left, are all so very scared of his towering intellect! If you picked Paul Ryan, that would just be the worst!”
Wink. Nudge. Mum’s the word.
pseudonymous in nc
It’s August, and everyone knows that columnists are meant to phone in nonsense from the beach/marina/lakehouse during August. Zakaria’s error was to engage in lazy copypasta on a topic of substance.
Steve
I daresay none of us were impressed by Kerry’s response to the Swiftboat attacks, but we can at least be thankful he didn’t respond by asking for his military career to be off limits.
dance around in your bones
The young Mick and Keith were so FUCKING sexy. I remember seeing the Stones in concert when I was around 15 or so? and being really confused by the sexual ambiguity of Mick Jagger – I was Very Young.
He pranced and swaggered and acted very queeny with his scarves and tight pants and all….not that I would have known what that meant at the time. I just remember being….confused.
But VERY glad I got to see them live!!
Turgidson
@Tonybrown74:
You know, I’m usually a pretty nice, even-tempered person (my recent rants in the comments of this blog aside). I don’t often wish pain and suffering on anyone, even if they might deserve it. Only really, really horrible people make that list. Cheney, Rumsfeld, Addington, Yoo and the rest of BushCo’s best and brightest…etc.
But Mittens? That lying sack of shit has no soul, no decency, and no scruples. And he deserves to lose big and be humiliated. And I have no shame in admitting that I’ll take some enjoyment out of watching him suffer. Fucker has earned it.
I felt a fair amount of antipathy for McCain/Palin, but not like this. McCain is a thin-skinned warmongering twit, but somewhere in there is a glimmer of deceny. He at least told that crazy lady to fuck off when she called Obama an Arab. Mittens wouldn’t say a damn thing and we all know it. Palin was about as awful as Mittens, but there’s something less threatening about her know-nothing catty bullshit.
The Other Chuck
I’m still thinking Rubio. Romney NEEDS Florida, teabaggers, and young voters. And a miracle, but hey, three out of four.
raven
@Steve: Fuckin wimp didn’t think of it.
beltane
@mclaren: If it’s Ryan the Democrats will have the most rousing theme for the convention ever. The scene will be simultaneously brutal and beautiful.
dance around in your bones
The young Mick and Keith were so FUCKING sexy. I remember seeing the Stones in concert when I was around 15 or so? and being really confused by the sexual ambiguity of Mick Jagger – I was Very Young.
He pranced and swaggered and acted very queeny with his scarves and tight pants and all….not that I would have known what that meant at the time. I just remember being….confused.
But VERY glad I got to see them live!!
gogol's wife
@Comrade Jake:
Errol Flynn was very cute, you have to admit.
mclaren
@Brachiator:
Oh indeed, as Omar was wont to say on The Wire. The conventional wisdom in the 2008 election was the match would be between Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton. Yeah, that sure played out.
The conventional wisdom in 2007 was “America is not ready for a black president.” Riiiiiiiiiiiiiight.
The conventional wisdom in 2006 was that “the sub-prime mortgage market represents only 5% of the total market, and therefore it can’t possibly bring down the global financial system.”
The conventional wisdom is solid gold. Study it closely and do the exact opposite, and you’ll seldom go wrong.
slag
@General Stuck: So now he wants to retroactively reverse his central argument for why he should be president. Well, ’tis the season. And Rmoney is a man of tradition, after all.
James E. Powell
@Brachiator:
You do realize that “conventional wisdom” is fancy talk for “shit that hack journalists make up,” don’t you.
I always thought conventional wisdom was ‘shit that Republican staffers tell us when we are drinking together.’
The social lives of most Village Courtiers do not allow time to learn or think. They just repeat what they hear. And when they do, they get invited to the best parties! And you don’t.
Violet
I wonder if the Obama campaign will go with something along the lines of, “I’m shocked that Mr. Romney doesn’t want to talk about his business record. We thought he was proud of his business record. Why is he trying to hide it now?”
raven
@dance around in your bones: Saw them on my 16th at McCormick Place, 1965.
Dennis SGMM
@Carl Nyberg:
“A fifty dollar donation at mittromney.com will automatically enter you in the Vice Presidential Lottery! That’s right, Real Americans, by a completely free and fair lottery one of you will be Mitt’s running mate!”
SteveM
It wasn’t a set. It was St. Mark’s Place between First Ave. and Avenue A. I know because my then-gf lived on the block and we watched them film the outdoor scenes from her fire escape (no lie). The indoor scenes are in the St. Mark’s Bar and Grill, which was just around the corner.
Dee Loralei
@eric: That would be an effing brilliant ad! Pass it along to the folks in Chicago! Though, knowing those geniuses they’ll have it up in time for tonights nationally televised nightly news. And playing every commercial break for the olympics and PGA this weekend!
Brian R.
Romney is begging for a truce.
Dennis SGMM
@raven:
LOL! Sin loi, minoy.
dance around in your bones
Ok, so FYWP has eaten my stupid comment.
I just wanted to say that I saw the Stones back in the day, and Mick and Keith were HOT; not all old and wrinkly like now.
But! I also have to say the Mick’s sexual ambiguity was kind of disconcerting for me, a young (15 yr old) kid from ABQ. I’d never seen anything like him before, with his scarves and strutting and tight pants – it was a…shall we say, awakening? for this sheltered young kid?
Not that there’s anything WRONG with that.
I will always be eternally grateful that I got to see them several times in their early years.Not that I necessarily remember much of it ….. as I recall, there were some psychedelic substances involved.
But – it was BITCHIN’, Man!!!
ETA:Ok, so apparently FYWP was just fucking with me. Carry on, never mind.
BGinCHI
@SteveM: Cigarette burn scar or it didn’t happen.
mclaren
@James E. Powell:
Exactamundo. Since there are no consequences for being wrong or fucking up when you reside inside the beltway, the only important thing is to be seen as “one of us” and “in the in crowd.” So these zitbrains repeat whatever they hear from others to make themselves look like one of the crowd, a real solidly wired-in guy, a sharp insider. And if what other people are repeating is gibberish like “austerity is the key to an economic recovery,” why, then you repeat that horseshit with a winning smile. Because if austerity wrecks the U.S. economy, who gives a fuckity fuck fuck fuck? Because it’s not like a K street lobbyist or a CNN anchorcritter or a highly-paid Washington Post columnist is gonna have to worry about next month’s paycheck even if the bottom drops out and we get another Great Depression.
raven
@Dennis SGMM: @raven:
Choi Duk!
raven
@dance around in your bones: And I tried to say I saw them on my 16th in Chicago, a story I have told for years. Then I went to their goddamn concert database and it was 2 weeks later, Nov 28!
khead
“Waiting on a Friend” is one of my favorite Stones tunes.
Please don’t ruin it.
That’s all.
And forget Fridays – try Night Tracks.
M31
Obama 2012: Hope and Change and Schadenfreude and Seeing my Enemies Driven Before Me and Hearing the Lamentations of their Women and Dancing Horses.
Steve
@jl: I don’t know what a unit root is, but here is the Yglesias link.
dance around in your bones
@raven: You know, I always relied on my (now dead) husband to set me straight on dates and venues.
We went to so many concerts together, and he always remembered every single damn one, where I have a kind of hazy herbal glow about them – where I KNOW I was there, but just can’t remember the details.
Man, I miss that dude.
Vico
Chait thinks Ryan is “dreamy”? I think he looks like goober.
David Hunt
@Hunter Gathers:
If his dad could hear what his son has been up to, he’d rise from the grave so he could start hitting him too. Metaphorically, of course. I doubt the elder Romney was in favor of beating his children.
SteveM
@BGinCHI: Hey, don’t deprive me of my major brush with greatness….
(Beyond that, it’s possible I responded with a “Whooo!” from the audience at the end of a live track on a Liquid Liquid EP. Not really close. Oh, but I did once hold the door to an ATM open for David Byrne.)
Brachiator
@geg6:
This seems to be the new “in thing” for journalists and politicians.
@James E. Powell:
Same as it ever was. Too many of these clowns want so desperately to be a shadow to a hanger on to someone close to someone who might be someone important that they will pass anything along, especially gas.
Culture of Truth
Mitt Romney will not apologize!
He will, however, cry uncle and beg our enemies for mercy.
But no apologies!
MikeJ
@Tonybrown74:
I understand there’s a letter where Romney refers to a portion of Maine’s population as “canucks”.
Linda Featheringill
@mclaren: #57
Amen!
Dee Loralei
Mitt’s the anti Truman. Willard M Truman :”You quit telling the truth about me, and I’ll keep lying about you!” HA!
I just tweeted that. Make it a meme people!
cat48
Wow, Mitten’s is a Whiny Bitch begging for a truce? What’s so wrong with a little restructuring like you did to so many factories and to so many people’s lives? He would cut my government pension & laugh in that weird–ha ha ha!
bemused
I do believe Mitt is imploding. Begging Obama to stop talking about “personal” stuff, business, taxes is a jaw dropping stupid move. Does anyone else think as I do that this is a significant and deadly moment in Mitt’s campaign? I can’t imagine how the rightwingers are going to react.. They don’t have much use for anti-Christies.
Valdivia
@geg6:
I think it’s the fact that these writers are now expected to produce 6 or 7 pieces a week or more, all different in emphasis and they get sloppy. I feel bad for Zakaria because he is one of the good ones on TV.
Shawn in ShowMe
@geg6:
Well, you gotta admit, Zakaria does sound like a human feed integrator. This isn’t a literary stylist we’re talking about here.
cat48
@Valdivia:
I agree. Fareed has the only decent Sunday a.m. Show. It’s the only one I watch.
Water balloon
Interesting to note that Obama is leading Romney in the RCP average by almost exactly the same margin today as he was vs McCain four years ago. Unless Romney picks Paul Ryan and the next three months become a debate over privatizing Medicare, I don’t think Obama will win by as much as he did last time, but I don’t really see Mitt making up the difference.
Valdivia
@cat48:
Me too. I don’t bother with anything else. These guys get overextended and instead of simply cutting down they begin to cut corners. Sigh.
azelie
@Baud:
Hope and Change and Schadenfreude
Mitt is getting so annoyed
Look at him… he’s in tatters
He’s all shattered, shattered
(Shadoobie…shattered)
different-church-lady
@bemused:
It reinforces the Newsweek headline from last week. It’s like he’s decided to reinforce his own negative meme.
jl
@Steve:
Thanks. Mankiw, like many macroeconomists, is far behind the times when it comes to time series analysis, and he doesn’t know what he is talking about, IMHO.
Very roughly and intuitively, the ‘unit root’ hypothesis is that important macroeconomic measures, like real growth rate, moves around in a nonstationary way like stock market returns. There was a lot of dithering over this awhile back
Problem is that you need thousands and thousands of observations to have any confidence at all in determining whether a time series has a unit root or not. In macro, even if you could do everything with monthly observations, you have less than a thousand. Less than a thousand observations is definitely ‘short’ for time series analysis.
Deciding to model a short time series as if it were a unit root series is for modeling convenience. There are different ways that your analysis will be robust or not robust depending on whether you make the unit root assumption. Generally, you are less likely to make big mistakes in short highly persistent time series if you assume it has a unit root.
The unit root controversy has no implications for policy, since we simply cannot know for sure whether there is a unit root or how important it would be if there was one in such a short time series.
I am statistician so I should not admit this, but I think Krugman is correct when he says that this fancy time series analysis, on its own, tells us little helpful for macroeconomic policy. Saying otherwise is noxious technical pooh-bah-ism.
Recent Yglesias is not as bad as I thought from looking through his posts, but he simply does not know enough, and is too self satisfied, to know when he is in over his head.
He could pick up the phone and call people though. Take Yglesias with a grain of salt.
DougJ
@SteveM:
Cool. I used to stay with a friend a few blocks from there all the time…though til the 90s.
Turgidson
@bemused:
I’m keeping my expectations down for the moment. I thought when Mittens nailed himself to the wall as a lying shitstain with the “Pay no attention to the forms I signed under penalty of perjury, I left Bain in 1999” episode, that would cause his campaign to implode. But the media found other dogs with poofy tails to chase before too long and we’re not really talking about that anymore.
But this is all adding up – even morons like Joke Line are calling him out for being a liar, his “business experience” pitch is tanking thanks to the drip drip drip of the past few weeks, 2/3 of votes want to see more tax returns, the base is in revolt over Saul, his tax plan has been revealed to be a massive fraud that will redistribute wealth still upward….and so on.
And I’m supremely confident that the Obama campaign has plenty more oppo to patiently reveal once the Olympics are over and people are paying closer attention.
I don’t know if this or any other moment in particular is “when it all fell apart.” It seems more like Romney is dying for a thousand
paper cutsself-inflicted wounds and Obama uppercuts to his plutocratic glass jaw.MikeJ
@SteveM:
I was front and center at the recoding of Big Star’s Columbia album, and possibly the source of a “whooo” or two. Balloon-juice has a commenting stable of possibly the finest whooo’ers on the internet.
jl
@jl:
to get what I mean by ‘nonstationary’, think of a random walk.
Steve
@jl: This kind of sounds like technical analysis of stocks, i.e. it makes my head hurt.
Dennis SGMM
@azelie:
Fuckin brilliant.
Does it matter?
Shadoobie…
different-church-lady
@Turgidson:
The vast majority of paper cuts are self inflicted.
Jeffro
@General Stuck: It’s funny that Romney considers ‘business’ and ‘tax’ – oriented attacks “personal”. Says TONS about the guy, doesn’t it?
Maude
@Valdivia:
He was making a lot of money. He stole and lied.
Another one bites the dust.
jl
@Steve:
No, not the same thing as stock market technical analysis. Just about how to analyze time series that wander around in very unpredictable ways.
Sorry. I saw meaningless technical bamboozlement polluting intuitive policy analysis, and couldn’t resist criticizing it.
One of the things that really burns me about economics is that they do not see the importance of making sure their technical whizzbang stuff makes any sense, they do not make any attempt to match it up with intuition, they do not see the importance of trying get others to understand techie jargon in an intuitive way.
If I were cynical enough, I would accuse economists of using the techy stuff as a stick to beat off legitimate questions about what they are doing. And maybe MY too.
Steeplejack (phone)
@geg6:
Really? That’s pretty shocking. He was legit, as far as I could tell.
When will people finally accept that the Internet forgets nothing?
Jeffro
@Carl Nyberg: McDonnell (VA) or Portman (OH). 110% guaranteed.
different-church-lady
@Jeffro: Based on the Electoral College math? You might be on to something, saying that Romeny’s smart enough to finally realize he can’t win with a base campaign.
Joseph Nobles
Mitt’s presidential hopes are so dead, Mormons are lining up to rebaptize them.
bemused
@Turgidson:
True but looking so whiny and wimpy isn’t what excites the rageaholic base.
Comrade Jake
@jl:
Linky.
Turgidson
@different-church-lady:
Ha! Got me there.
wrb
@kindness:
In 1980 I saw the month of “Reckoning” acoustic set shows at the Warfield & the JGB seemed to show up every month at the Keystone Palo Alto a few blocks away and they were smokin.’
Bobby & the Midnights opened a few and especially the early configuration, w Tim Bogart on bass was huge rocking fun.
Alphonso Johnson lowered the energy level
Dee Loralei
@azelie: Brilliant BTW. And tweeted!
Comrade Jake
@jl:
I don’t think the details of the unit-root stuff are so important out of Yglesias’ piece so much as whether or not Mankiw has reversed his position. I viewed the reversal as being more germane to the point he was trying to make.
Now if your argument is that Yglesias really has to understand the unit root issue to determine whether or not Mankiw reversed himself, then, fair enough.
Calouste
There’s something else that reminds me of Sesame Street. It’s the Romney campaign. Or maybe it reminds me of the Muppets.
jl
@Comrade Jake: Thanks for clarifying my thinking with your comment. It is more the second. I think Yglesias doesn’t understand the issue enough. And since Mankiw is an official macroeconomist and famous, and I am neither, I will just say that I very strongly disagree with how Mankiw approaches the issue, and I am not sure whether he is changing his mind or issuing a convenient fudge.
CaptMaggie
I think the one thing BJers and Freepers would agree upon is that Sarah Palin should be his pick. Here’s hoping!
Thymezone
Apparently you all are unaware of the power of the Etch-A-Sketch. It is only weeks before Mitt Romney turns himself into the Guy You Want To Have a Root Beer With.
different-church-lady
@Calouste:
Naw, the Muppets were funny and charming.
tybee
@raven:
been a while for that one
mclaren
@jl:
Yes, and the issue with the economy is that taking thousands of observation would require so many years that the underlying technology and basic operation of the economy would have changed during that time, so the observations would no longer be commensurate. It would be like comparing a steam-powered economy operating without a central bank with a modern electric-powered economy with a central bank. Even if you managed to extract the unit root, the economy over the interval would’ve changed so much the governing dynamics would be completely different from the first time series measurements to the last.
mclaren
@Water balloon:
Ooohhh…ooohhh! Look what just happened!
AHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Willard is toast!
Wait till Obama unleashes the “Ryan plan slashes social security and medicare to pay for more tax cuts for the rich” ads.