(Drew Sheneman via GoComics.com)
__
Dave Weigel at Slate reports on this year’s very serious most important CPAC straw poll:
We are nearly through the Alternate Reality Week of the 2012 primary. Rick Santorum won two caucuses and one ballot test which assigned no delegates. This gave him “momentum.” He joined two other candidates (not Ron Paul; I’ll get to that in a bit) at a conference of conservative activists, with a straw poll that, historically, has only fitfully predicted the Republican nominee.
__
Like magic, it all mattered. Public Policy Polling’s latest national poll (there’s no some thing as a national primary, etc etc, rabble rabble) puts Santorum in the lead…
As further proof that yes, the GOPers really are just that stupid, the Washington Post is running one of its sidebar polls: Do you support the White House’s new compromise on contraceptive coverage for women? And the NO vote percentage is standing at — you guessed it — 27 percent!
Bruce S
A little round-up of opinion on the great social scientist Charles Murry with a few additional thoughts:
http://titanicsailsatdawn.blogspot.com/2012/02/murray-center-is-worried-about-white.html
Martin
PPP, so they have something of an incentive to show Santorum with a big lead, but they can’t game the poll too much. Fun times.
Comrade Mary
And Romney won the straw poll. I think I hear a Snoopy dance in the distance. Truly. Verily, you might say.
khead
This may be old news but I have not seen a post here so far….
Are our current Marine snipers really so stupid that they don’t recognize an SS symbol? Really?
Five fucking minutes of watching the Military Channel during a weekday afternoon can tell you what that flag means.
Veritas
BREAKING NEWS Mitt Romney WINS CPAC STAW POLL.
So is the MSM still going to say the base doesn’t like him despite his stunning performance?
Hill Dweller
@Comrade Mary: TPM has video of them announcing Willard’s win, and there is plenty of booing.
Villago Delenda Est
@khead:
Every one of those Marine snipers needs to be dishonorably discharged. Right this fucking second.
Amir Khalid
@khead:
Even more worrying, how did the United States Marine Corps come to let in boys that stupid?
Jewish Steel
@khead: I thought for a second they were covering up a Kiss flag.
@Veritas:
Stunning performance?
Chyron HR
@Hill Dweller:
No, they were going “Boooo-omney”.
Veritas
@Jewish Steel:
At the CPAC poll. The MSM constantly bleats on and on about how much the base can’t stand Romney. Well guess what: he just won a straw poll of the base of the base.
Villago Delenda Est
@Veritas:
Yes, because there was, as Hill Dweller reports, plenty of booing.
Also, they excluded Paul from the balloting. RNC Partei purity rears its ugly head, again.
Chyron HR
@Veritas:
I forget, how many delegates does the CPAC straw poll award?
That is the basis on which you decide which votes “matter”, right?
David Koch
Romney is fucked.
A 15 pt lead for Rick.
It was easy to tear down Noot over his 3 marriages, fannie mae, and moon bases.
Santorum doesn’t have the same issues. His problems are his hyper-wingerism and bigotry, but that’s red meat to the base. Romney can’t attack those positions without offending primary voters.
Going after earmarks and voting to lift the debt ceiling just doesn’t have the punch as going after some one for leaving his wife because she won’t agree to an open marriage.
cmorenc
@Martin:
The strength of PPP for progressives (as opposed to Rasmussen for conservatives) is that PPP sees its mission as giving us the straight story on the polling numbers, both those with favorable and unfavorable implications for our own hopes and side. By contrast, Rasmussen tends to consistently be skewed a handful of points toward the GOP side. The result is that PPP tends to be a more accurate predictor more often of the outcome of elections they poll.
Jewish Steel
@Veritas: Oh, I understood what you meant. I’m not clear on your enthusiasm for a straw poll that has less significance than the beauty pageant in MO last week.
And does CPAC really represent the base? Or do CPACkers consider themselves savvy insiders?
Villago Delenda Est
@Amir Khalid:
I have no fucking idea. That flag is an outright SS banner. You can’t even pretend it’s a KISS logo (“symbol for high voltage” is the story there).
People in the chain of command of that unit need to have their careers terminated, with no benefits at all.
marcopolo
Hey Veritas,
I live in Missouri. Let me confirm to you how much the base dislikes Mittens. In my state virtually all the statewide & national Republican figures are firmly behind him. He has raised far and away more money than any other candidate in Missouri. Oh yeah, and he lost the primary vote by 30 points to Santorum. That is sure some sign of base support. Yes indeedy!
Also too, shouldn’t you have made a prediction on the Maine caucus results by now. Maine is in the NE. Pretty close to MA. You’d think he’d smoke everyone up there, right. But the rumors are that Paul, who last I checked is in 4th place in virtually all the polling, is running neck & neck with him. So what’s that all about?
Gawd I have been enjoying this Republican presidential fiasco, err nomination process.
Amir Khalid
@Veritas:
Michele Bachmann won a straw poll too, and where is her presidential candidacy now?
Suffern ACE
Yeah. The base of the base. That sums CPAC up nicely.
Hill Dweller
@David Koch:
Romney’s only selling point was his strength against the President in head-to-head polling. That’s gone now.
His campaign started attacking the methodology of some unfavorable polls last week, because they know the public despises him, and once the ‘best candidate to beat Obama’ selling point is gone, things will get ugly, very quickly, for Willard.
Spaghetti Lee
@Veritas:
Yep, can’t get much more base than that!
PPOG Penguin
@Jewish Steel: Sure. He powered through the 30% barrier like it was hardly there. By Romney standards, that’s stunning.
Egg Berry
Apparently, Charles Murray was on Charlie Rose this week. I only heard it as I was drifting off to sleep. Ugh.
PPOG Penguin
@efgoldman: No Kraftwerk?
Linda Featheringill
@khead:
The Schutzstaffel:
The problem is that the SS was encouraged to do more than vote and voice opinions. They undertook a lot of direct action.
And there is absolutely no way those snipers didn’t know what they were doing.
And how high up on the chain of command would you have to go to find someone who questioned the value of an armed and trained Nazi hit team within the US military?
David Koch
@khead: But the SS was so likable on “Hogan’s Heroes”.
Who didn’t like Major Hochstetter?
Veritas
@marcopolo:
Romney has Maine in the bag.
IN. THE. BAG. Paul always talks a good game then comes up short.
Missouri was a beauty contest. The real contest in Missouri is when they hold the caucuses.
Martin
@cmorenc: Well, I might agree with you, but giving the benefit of the doubt all around it’s not unreasonable for people to accuse PPP of the same bias that we accuse Ras of. I do a fair bit of polling, and even when you’re trying to be perfectly fair about things, you still have to start from certain assumptions, and those are always subjective. So there really is no objective neutral polling, unless it’s comprehensive and you’re polling every voter.
Ras clearly overstates their demographic assumptions in certain directions in early polling, and they tighten that up as the election approaches. PPP doesn’t do that in my experience and tends to be slightly optimistic on demographics in the Dems favor. Ras tends to be VERY optimistic. Not that Gallup and other polling outfits aren’t just as flawed, but their flaws tend to be more neutral in their impact.
So, all of that aside, there’s no way that PPP could tilt their poll 15 points in Santorums favor. It’s not just that Santorum is leading in the poll, but that he’s leading by a LOT.
Linda Featheringill
Maine caucuses today?
Martin
@Veritas:
You didn’t do that right. Here’s what it’s supposed to look like:
See, now it’s a good spoof of Always Wrong Veritas.
Oh, wait…
beltane
@Linda Featheringill: If you look at the picture of the sniper team you’ll notice they’re all white. It does make you wonder how high up the chain of command knowledge of this went. No disciplinary action was taken either. They were basically told to put their flag away and not take it out again.
Mike G
@David Koch:
This reminds me of the Mad magazine parody of Hogan’s Heroes. The Major Hochstetter character warns Hogan, “Cool it bub, I’m not one of those lovable Nazis you see on television.”
marcopolo
Yep. Should start hearing results in the next 20 minutes or so. I believe they closed at 6 EST.
Jewish Steel
@PPOG Penguin: Ha!
Why does Romney have one pledged delegate already?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/interactive/2012/jan/03/gop-nomination-2012-primary-results#state=ME
marcopolo
@Martin: Just glad to have it on the record. Now let’s hope that the Paulistas put on a bravura performance!
Linda Featheringill
One wonders how much the bishops could accomplish with Republicans controlling the house and senate and Santorum as president?
kvenlander
OK, now I know this troll is a spoof. DougJ, time to stop playing with the “Veritas” handle.
marcopolo
@Linda Featheringill: May I refer you to the lovely book The Handmaid’s Tale.
General Stuck
please understand, this isn’t easy for me. But while the topic is hot, I feel it necessary to make my peace with Earthmother on the matter at hand. so witout further adieu.
Dear Fuckhead,
Please come home. While I can’t honestly count myself among them, there are many here that miss you wildly, as well as yer snark artistry
It is wrong to hate, and though we have both expressed such sentiment to each other. It does not shine well on our fake selves, as being all that bright, that two strangers with fake names on the internets see fit to hate each other.
While I can’t apologize for defending myself or my dog, I can say I do genuinely regret and apologize that things often went as far as they did, and my part in that, with the whole Fuckhead and Stuckhead Show thing, as it were.
Think of us as two giant invisible wabbits passing in the night of the ethers, exchanging glances and barbs. Now tint it a little bit crazy that would engender the hate reflex. I don’t hate you fuckhead. I don’t like you, but I don’t hate you either. Please come home
Harvey Stuck.
Best I can do Cole. sniffle, Hanky please, sniffle,
Jewish Steel
@kvenlander: That’s what I thought at first, but then I changed my mind. And now I’m changing it back again.
DougJ: Living rent free in our heads since…a time prior to my arrival.
Martin
@kvenlander: Agreed – DougJ posted his meetup thread at 5:40, and Veritas shows up at 5:43. Either DougJ is trolling us, or Veritas was on the far side of the bed away from the door and needed an extra minute to get to the laptop.
marcopolo
@Jewish Steel: If you want a laugh, look at the bottom of the Guardian Maine caucus page (your link) where they list “Maine’s role in selecting the GOP nominee and President.” For the 2000 result they have W leading the state & winning the nomination but not as winning the presidential election. Which I guess is true going by just the popular vote. Ah, that dry British humor.
Comrade Mary
Look, I’m still digesting the news that Stuck and JSF are two giant invisible wabbits, so don’t you go confusing me with DougJ/Veritas nonsense.
(Hey JSF, I’m heading out on a cold, cold night. You coming back in?)
Alan
Doesn’t Romney always win the straw poll at CPAC? FWIU, he pays for his CPAC votes.
Alan
Doesn’t Romney always win the straw poll at CPAC? FWIU, he pays for his CPAC votes.
Brother Shotgun of Sweet Reason
@Amir Khalid: Whatever’s going on, those Marines ain’t stupid. It’s hard as hell to join up these days, the services can take their pick.
wrb
Wonder how much he had to pay per vote.
CPAC is an ideal set up for vote buying. Very little waste.
It is a great one for vote selling too.
Jewish Steel
@marcopolo: I did look at that graphic but missed that delicious little barb. Someone reads a text pretty carefully around here.
Mnemosyne
@Villago Delenda Est:
The only excuse I could see for them having that flag at all would be if it were an actual prize of war that the squad had captured during WWII so they could display it as as example of them being even bigger badasses than the SS guys they took it from.
But even then they should have the goddamned common sense not to take their fucking pictures in front of it.
J. Michael Neal
@Bruce S:
Money Talks – AC/DC
Money Talks – The Alan Parsons Project
The Big Money – Rush
And the Gophers sweep in Columbus.
feebog
@ Veritas (AKA Doug J.)
Ron Paul is ratfucking the entire process. Watch this TRMS clip with Senior Ron Paul advisor Doug Wead, and try to keep your head from exploding…
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/vp/46349475#46349475
Redshift
@PPOG Penguin: Or Flying Lizards?
Gin & Tonic
TPM and the NYT are saying Mitt won Maine.
Villago Delenda Est
I remember when “Rea1ity Check” was accused of being DougJ, and vehemently denied it, repeatedly.
Poe’s Law and all, it’s so difficult to suss it out without looking under the hood and checking IPs. One of my tech geek friends could probably sort it out in under 5 minutes, if I could ever persuade them to sacrifice 5 minutes of their life to do so, and I am not that persuasive.
Mike in NC
@Mnemosyne:
Unfortunately, during my 30 years in the Navy it was routine to preface almost anything that was done with the comment, “Make sure there’s some adult supervision present”.
Linda Featheringill
@marcopolo:
Yes. I’ve read it. Don’t let the bastards grind you down.
Of course, it would be better yet if we didn’t let the bastards gain power.
Villago Delenda Est
@Mnemosyne:
Given that there were precious few Marines in the ETO (they were all busy taking islands in the Pacific…there were hardly any Marines at all at Normandy, the greatest amphibious operation in history) I doubt that very much.
Veritas
ROMNEY WINS IN MAINE!
The State GOP CONFIRMS! Defeats Ron Paul!
marcopolo
@Gin & Tonic: I has a sad. So farking close: 39% for the romneybot to 36% for the ronbots. Oh well.
Left Coast Tom
@Gin & Tonic: Look at those vote totals on TPM…84% of precincts, and it probably adds up to 5500 votes. Apparently Maine’s GOP residents had better things to do.
khead
This.
Been looking around a bit and it appears as if this has been going on for some time. As in, since the 1990’s.
Apparently, the rest of us just don’t understand. At least, that’s what the folks in the comments of most of the articles I’ve read say….
Villago Delenda Est
@marcopolo:
3% margin? Is that all the Romneytron could do with next to no opposition at all?
As others have pointed out, Romneytron should be blowing the doors off of everyone in the race at this point, especially Stormfront Goldbug Paul.
beltane
@Left Coast Tom: Town Meeting day in a mid-sized town will attract that many people. Not very fired up, are they.
Suffern ACE
Well romey got 51 percent in 2008 to Paul’s 18 percent.
Villago Delenda Est
@Alan:
The last couple of sessions, Paul won the straw poll. The solution to that problem was to just exclude Paul from the straw poll, and not invite him to speak.
Left Coast Tom
@beltane: What’s really confusing, though…from the NYT:
I thought “Veritas” (in vino?) assured us this sort of bullshit doesn’t really matter. At least the MO vote was a “primary” that doesn’t matter.
Jewish Steel
@Suffern ACE: It’s almost as though like they like him less for some reason!
beltane
In Maine they say turnout was up slightly but that Romney got fewer votes and a lower percentage of the vote than in 2008.
beltane
@Left Coast Tom: The Missouri primary didn’t matter because it was a non-binding “beauty contest”. The non-binding result in Maine matters because it was an ugly contest. See how that works?
Villago Delenda Est
@Left Coast Tom:
Oops. Foiled again!
beltane
Someone at DKos is saying that Romney won the non-binding part of the vote but that Ron Paul will come away with more delegates. I have two questions:
1) How does that work?
2) Does Marc Penn have anything to do with it?
Sophia
Ugh. Whose hateful idea was it to sell political advertising on youtube? I just clicked a link to a Louis CK video and had this as the ad before it:
Obama and McCaskill force Catholic staffers to take abortion pills like vitamins
Ok, it’s not that bad. But bad enough. It features “Forcing Catholic Institutions to Pay for Abortion-Causing Drugs.”
Left Coast Tom
@beltane: Maybe they’re using McArgleBargle’s calculator.
Martin
Well, the nonbonding business doesn’t mean that there aren’t results here that matter. This puts Maine right back in the same category as Minnesota as described on Rachel last night. That is, Ron Paul likely will win Maine as he may well have won Minnesota.
We had shades of this in 2008 on the Dem side, but it seems as though Ron Paul has refined it down to a very specific strategy here.
Suffern ACE
@71 Beltane – I expect it was up since last time it fell on Superbowl Weekend and some places moved their voting dates around. Confusion tends to, confuse people.
Gin & Tonic
@Villago Delenda Est: I’m impressed with Rih. 18% and if I’m not mistaken, he hasn’t set foot in the state.
gene108
The Republican process to select a Presidential candidate confuses me.
You have a primary in Missouri that doesn’t award delegates and a caucus, straw poll or whatever in Main that also does not award delegates.
I don’t understand the point of these exercises, if no delegates are awarded.
Roger Moore
@beltane:
I think the way it works is that the caucus has two parts. In part one, they ask people to express their preference in a non-binding vote. In the second part, they appoint delegates to some higher-level convention. The higher-level convention appoints delegates to a higher convention, and at some point they wind up appointing the actual delegates to the national convention. Because the appointing delegates part requires more work, lazy or weakly committed voters tend to go home at that point and let the serious ones do the work that actually counts. The assumption is that Paul’s followers are more committed than Romney’s are, and hence are more likely to stick around to do the unglamorous but important part.
David Koch
@Suffern ACE:
Once again, Romney 2012 lost to Romney 2008.
Villago Delenda Est
@gene108:
Yeah, I don’t get it, either. It’s pure Potemkin democracy. The matters are further muddled by the party rules that halve the number of delegates if you hold your event “too soon” if delegates are at stake. Also, in the caucus states, it seems that the media splash caucuses are basically elaborate straw polls, with the actual process for selecting delegates separate. Which is why the Paul people are gaming that side of the process, not the straw poll side.
It would seem to me that a strictly proportional system based on the raw popular vote in say each congressional district would be the way to go for delegate selection, and in fact such a system actually exists for electoral delegate selection for the general election in a couple of states.
But then again, I’m in favor of democracy. Most party bosses are not.
Suffern ACE
@Roger Moore – which is why I wish they’d dump that iowa first tradition and rotate it around. Every caucus seems to be different and Im bored with three months of reporting on Iowa quirks, straw polls and state fairs every four years. Maine has a state fair and quirky caucuses too.
Alan
@Villago Delenda Est:
Ah, I totally forgot about Paul.
Villago Delenda Est
@Suffern ACE:
Yeah, but Iowans all speak with a flat midwestern accent, which is easier for Villagers to grok (since those on the boob toob use it themselves) than a down East bunch of Mainers.
David Koch
@beltane: I imagine it’s like the electoral college, where you can win the popular vote by millions and yet lose the electoral college vote.
Lojasmo
@Veritas:
38% of the vote is a stunning performance? You republicans sure know how to draw the line low.
WINNING!
Bruce S
The Mittmentum: Romney sweeps Maine – 39% to 36% over…Ron Paul!
I’m starting to feel sorry for the poor bastard…
(Not really)
Edit: Note of clarification – the “poor bastard” in question is Willard M, not “Veritas”
Suffern ACE
@ VDE – Yeah but Maine has a coast, so many of its salt o the earth voters are actually salty (not that i’d recommend tasting them. Not without asking)
Martin
@Roger Moore: Right. The interesting step comes at the state level, though. You have all of these precinct delegates that go to the state level, where the process sort of repeats. The precinct delegates again nominate and elect state delegates that will go onto the national convention.
The non-binding bit only means that the delegates aren’t bound to the decision of the voters in the precinct. Generally in primaries they are binding, so whoever goes as a delegate is bound to the result of the vote. So if Ron Paul supporters are chosen to represent districts in MN, they can nominate and vote at the state level for Ron Paul delegates, even if they came out of precincts that Santorum or Romney won, and at the state level they can come out even further ahead or fall behind. Ron Paul’s guy seems to think they won almost all of the MN delegates, so in theory at the state level only Ron Paul people would be participating and only Ron Paul delegates would advance from the state to the national convention.
Now normally, the delegates aren’t so brash as to go against the will of their district, but in Ron Paul’s case they seem to be. But there’s nothing wrong with what they’re doing. This is what Ron Paul did in Nevada back in 2008, the effects of which still last because there’s usually other business conducted at the state delegate convention, which Ron Paul’s people will be able to dominate as the only precinct delegates that advanced. I have to admire the deviousness (and operation within the rules) of this.
Michael
Democrat caucuses actually aren’t really different…we stole a Hillary delegate after the Nevada caucuses back in 2008
Donald G
Veritas has to take his VICTORY where he can find it. It just so happens to be in Maine, and only by three percentage points.
Surely, that must give Mitt a mandate.
Bruce S
More on Willard’s Truly Awesome Mittmentum: Romney12 only finished 13 points behind Romney08 in Maine.
WINNING!
Edit: Apologies to those upthread who had this first. But nothing like salt in wounds.
pseudonymous in nc
@David Koch:
In total votes as well as vote share. Feel the Mittmentum!
Left Coast Tom
@Martin:
So if this happened in 2008 it begs the question: why wasn’t it a one-trick pony? Apparently Willard, the Annointed Front Runner (until two frothy days ago), the only GOP candidate with enough money under his direct control to build a Real Organization, couldn’t foresee something that had already happened? Why not, and if he’s such a Great Businessman, why hasn’t he fired the person who failed to foresee the past? It seems like the obvious counter to such a strategy would be something that would be socially beneficial anyway: stop paying money for campaign efforts that don’t really matter anyway. Not only would the candidate benefit, the public would see fewer such ‘straw polls’/’non-binding “votes”‘ since their organizers would be left without money.
Suffern ACE
I wonder how John Thune would be doing if he had thrown his hat in. Before there was Haley, before Mitch and Cristie were the establishment not Romney’s, wasn’t Thune the establishment darling to beat?
stevestory
holy shit it really is:
Suffern ACE
@Left Coast Tom – I wonder if, amongst other things, the Super Pacs hired all the campaign workers and advisers who would know to block these tactics. They might be trying to run on media buys and whistle stops.
Left Coast Tom
@Suffern ACE: Maybe. But suppose that’s so. Shouldn’t that put Mitt at an advantage over Gingrich and Santorum? In addition to having plenty of campaign money, Mitt has multiple SuperPAC sugar daddies, Gingrich has Sheldon Adelson and four other members of his family, Santorum has Foster Frieze.
Another Halocene Human
The FreedomWorks mailing list put out some push-poll-ey thing just this week about a brokered convention. Up until then I had only heard that raised (and dismissed) on popcorn-sharing threads on liberal politics blogs.
dogwood
I don’t know what this low voter turnout in the Republican primaries will mean in the general election, but it should have been predicted and expected. The Republican voters were given a slate of truly horrific candidates. As bad as Romney is, each of the not-Mitts has been equally revolting. Outside of the Paul-bots, none of these candidates has a base of excited and enthusiastic followers. I think the rank and file have settled on Romney’s inevitability, but feel little compulsion to get up off their arses and actually caucus for him or pull the lever in a primary. That’s why this thing will go on for a few more months.
colby
@Veritas: It’s not the “base of the base”; CPAC skews much younger than Republicans in general; that’s why they invited a dating expert, got McConnell to talk about how “cool” they are, etc. And if you keep spinning like that, you’re gonna make more of a mess of yo’self.
Martin
@Left Coast Tom:
I think because politics are generally comprised of hired guns – which is even more true now in the SuperPAC age. What we’re talking about here is not only getting voters out to caucus for you, but to stay yet another hour or more later and fight it out with the others for the delegate role, and to convince at least one of them to serve loyally in that role.
I don’t think the other candidates have that kind of grassroots structure (they’re not fucking community organizers you know!) or that kind of loyalty among supporters that they can do this, even if they know the tactic. And even if you know the tactic, you have to walk in with the expectation that it’ll be used widely, which aside from Nevada 2008 which was kind of an outlier anyway because the state party basically imploded, never has been. What’s new here is that Ron Paul seems to have a national strategy of (effectively, as it’ll be viewed this way) stealing delegates from the voters. A shift of a few delegates nobody cares about, because the outcomes are the same. You shift a lot of them (and it remains to be seen if the strategy can work all through the state conventions, where the other candidate teams will be able to better focus on thwarting Paul) and suddenly the GOP base is going to notice.
I don’t exactly know Paul’s endgame here, but he could possibly tie up enough delegates to force a brokered convention, or at least to command enough power at the convention to get things he wants – a platform for the party, influence on the VP pick, and so on. This could get really interesting.
amk
@Veritas:
mittmentum- week long poll. 5k turn out in your ‘home state’ . ‘victory’ over that aged, nutcase of an opponent. the sweater guy pulls in 18% without even campaigning while you get 39% in your own backyard .
yay.
Martin
@colby:
Don’t forget the Grindr invites for buttsecks! You think the old closeted guys use Grindr?
colby
Man, don’t get me wrong, this is good for Mitt’s campaign for the right to lose to Obama in November, but only barely. Turnout was miniscule, he did worse than he did in ’08, and he barely beat the Republican Dennis Kucinich…who will probably end up with just about as many delegates.
Clearly, Romney needs to get back to Florida, stat.
David Koch
@Suffern ACE: Thune’s a bore. He’s a good looking version of TPaw. No base, no money, no charisma, no issue, no hope. The Village likes him, but that and a nickel buys you nothing.
amk
@Veritas:
teh mittmentum
COLORADO:
2008…………….…42,218.……….…60%….………...1st
2012…………….…23,097.……….…35%….………...2nd
MINNESOTA:
2008…………….…25,990.……….…41%….……….…1st
2012…………….…..7,899……….….17%………….….3rd
MISSOURI
2008……………...172,329.……….…29%….……….…3rd
2012…………….….63,826……….….25%………….….3rd
MAINE
2008…………….……2,839…………..52%..……….…..1st
2012…………….……2,190…………..38%..……….…..1st
dogwood
@Martin:
I have an ex-student who is working diligently on the Paul campaign. He’s only 18, started in June as a glorified gofer, moved up quickly, tripled his salary and is now writing press releases and has full media credentials. He called me not too long ago, and I asked him what his thoughts were about Paul’s endgame. He seems to think he wants a big-time speaking slot at the convention and nothing much more. I don’t know if that is an opinion based on anything other than this kids feelings, but I do believe that Ron Paul isn’t going to do anything to screw up his son’s political future in the Party.
MikeJ
@Martin:
Actually I did this in the ’08 Washington caucuses. Our precinct went Obama, but in such a way that our delegates to state went Obama 3-2 Clinton. I managed to find five Obama supporters who wanted to be delegates and got my slate in. The Clinton supporters didn’t understand how the process worked and we managed to keep our people a) enthused and b) physically present.
Gravenstone
So the Wasilla wingnut has descended upon the lower 48 again to provide her wisdom to the CPAC masses. A long primary will HELP the Republican nominee. Go Sarah, go (away).
Davis X. Machina
@gene108: In ME, Dem caucuses at least do select state convention delegates, and alternates. I’ve gone to the state convention most every even-numbered year as one or t’other.
In the small towns, in non-presidential years, the town Democratic committee is hard-pressed to find people to pay to go. It’s not a lot of money, but this isn’t a well-heeled state once you get away from salt water.
Because of threshold rules, and rounding, the delegate numbers don’t always track the actual breakdown of caucus goers’ preferences. There’s no fractional delegates…..
Gravenstone
Holy shit! Just refreshed Yahoo news and there’s a headline banner that Whitney Houston has passed at 48.
Bruce S
Best-selling megachurcher Rick Warren’s going all “Martin Luther King” against Obama’s tyranny:
https://twitter.com/#!/RickWarren/status/167071139280072706
Creepy dude…
gbear
…other than raising him with all those fucked up ideals.
David Koch
@Gravenstone: Oh look! What a surprise! She came dressed as a slutty secretary (tight pencil skirt, plunging neckline, and leopard print F-me heels):
http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/02wqehj3vTgOl/x610.jpg
http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/07cK5aw5J018e/x610.jpg
Left Coast Tom
@Martin: Mitt Romney named Pete Wilson honorary chairman of Romney’s campaign in California. Pete Wilson started the Hispanic Bashing nonsense in order to win re-election in 1994, and by 1996 had already condemned the California GOP to Permanent Minority Status (with an assist from CA GOP legislators, who were so incompetent they couldn’t take control of the CA Assembly until late 1995 despite having won a majority in 1994). What semi-competent Republican would even talk to Pete Wilson?
Mitt seems to be starting with a sharp set of advantages (money, ‘organization’) and disadvantages (most people hate him), but at some level he doesn’t even seem to be using his advantages.
Citizen_X
The bar. It is very low.
Judas Escargot
@Veritas:
Wonder how much the straw poll cost per vote.
ETA: It does look like your boy beat Ron Paul, after all… by 3% (39/36).
I’d say “let’s wait for the cities”, but Maine has only 3 or 4 of those.
PIGL
@efgoldman: the bottom, IYNWIMAITYD, of the base, who can afford three days in DC to have anonymous buttsex (or apparently, often just oral) with fellow dashing young conferenciers.
Anyone who belongs to the Republican Party is 2/3 of {Creep, Moron, Fascist}
Martin
@Gravenstone:
Of course. As always, everything is good news for John McCain.
Martin
@MikeJ: There’s a reason why Obama won every caucus state but Nevada. That too, was not luck.
The Sheriff's A Ni-
@Veritas:
Money can’t buy you love, Midwestern / Bible Belt primaries, or a higher class of troll, apparently.
DanielX
@J. Michael Neal:
It’s Alright Ma (I’m Only Dying) – Bob Dylan
While money doesn’t talk, it swears…
Martin
@Left Coast Tom:
Well, no Republican is going to get within a million votes of Obama in CA, so no local harm done. But the GOP is still hoping the unemployment/immigrant false connection holds in the minds of voters, and that could help him in places like Arizona and Nevada.
The big tell on where Obama thinks they stand is if they make a serious run at Texas. If so, they think this is a lock, and they’re going to try and break the electoral advantage of pandering to the nativist wing. If he could win Texas, that strategy by the GOP is done forever, and they’ll have to swing back to a rational immigration stance. The GOP knows they have no future without Texas, and they don’t dare lose it again. I hope we see it – Texas in the blue column would be a glorious thing indeed.
Obama is only a few points behind both Santorum and Romney in Texas polling. And Obama has net favorables in Texas. And what’s not well understood by most people about the impact of latinos is that the latino population is skewed VERY heavily toward the younger end of the spectrum, so a huge chunk of the latinos in places like CA and TX weren’t old enough to vote in 2008, but are now. There’s been a huge spike in latino voter registration over the last 4 years in these states. It’s still a longshot, but forcing the GOP to fight for Texas would hurt like all hell. That’s not where they want to spend their money, and it’s a pretty expensive state on top of that.
Left Coast Tom
@Martin: I guess I’m having a hard time seeing where, even nationally, Pete Wilson has fans outside of golf courses, he hasn’t held office since 1998 and nobody seriously thinks he’ll hold it again.
A blue TX would be awesome, even TX being a battleground state would be awesome if only for what it would say about the vote in places like AZ and NM, and I guess there’s been polls indicating some (justified) embarrassment over Perry’s ‘performance’. I’d read that TX’s latino vote has stayed around 40% R, unlike in the west where its closer to 20%.
DanielX
@Martin:
Took the words right out of my mouth. Actually, the longer this Bataan Death March of Republican primaries goes on, the better I like it. Between Little Ricky and Roy Blunt, I reckon the Rs lost 15% of women’s votes in the general election this weekend alone.
I can’t wait for the next Republican debate…somehow I don’t think Newt is going to be going along with this whole anti-contraception thing, for good and sufficient reasons.
Observation: Since 1980 the Republican nominee has been pretty well wired in advance. The Republican power brokers have had things pretty well arranged, and very little public dissent was allowed (Reagan’s 11th Commandment etc). It’s been:
1)’Okay, it’s your turn even though the base thinks you suck, at least you can do the job’ – Bush I, Dole, McCain – or
2) ‘You’ve been anointed – now get out there, don’t fuck up, and don’t forget who put you there’ – Bush II.
Now the fault lines are getting wider and wider and it’s oh so much fun to watch. The wingnut/Tea Party base does not give a rusty goddamn what James Baker III (to name one example) thinks or says about anything, even if they know who he is. There are no grownups in charge any more, and the farther the candidates have to go to win the nomination. Forget contraception, by the time the last primary is over, they’ll be arguing over whether seven year olds should be encouraged or required to carry concealed weapons.
scav
@Suffern ACE: yup. “base of the base.” “Lowest of the Low” Chex_mix spoke true for once.
Martin
@Left Coast Tom: Yeah, I need to look at it again, but my recollection is that two things happen:
1) Unlike the black vote pattern, the larger the latino % of the overall population, the more likely they are to register Republican (this is the reverse of black voters)
2) States like Texas, NM, AZ, CA have varying ‘the border crossed us’ populations, and immigration policy largely isn’t influential with them.
And even here in CA you get different interactions with social policy. Obama won the latino vote strongly here, but the latino vote went predominantly against Prop 8. So depending on what social buttons are being pushed, you can get different registration patterns. Turnout, as always, is key for those registration patterns to matter at all.
maus
@Martin:
Is that still true outside of Texas and Florida?
jafd
@MikeJ:
Back in the 1950’s the Catholics had something called ‘The Christophers’ – sort of an umbrella for anti-Communist community/union/etc organizers. Published monthly fliers, with good practical advice. One thing I remember “The Reds will try to ‘sit you out’ – wait around ’till everyone else’s gone home, _then_ pass the resolutions, appropriate the funds, achieve their goals.
But then, Lenin stole most of his ideas on party organization from Ignatius, anyway