Herman Cain is the frontrunner in a new University of Iowa poll, just as he was in seven other national and state polls released recently.
Just because Cain’s campaign started as a book tour doesn’t mean it can’t end in serious fight for the nomination. It’s still ten weeks to Iowa and a few more to New Hampshire. Michelle Bachmann’s entire New Hampshire operation just quit, and Herman probably has the money to hire them. Even though his Q3 money report was weak, he was a nobody also-ran during most of Q3, and his campaign claims that they’ve raised a couple million bucks in the last two weeks, now that he’s a real threat.
I’m not man or woman enough to watch the entire debates, but the few snippets I’ve seen of Cain are nothing like the complete fail of Rick Perry. He enunciates his lies clearly and with vigor. He’s able to quickly generate new nonsense when his old nonsense has been challenged — his 999 plan is now the 909 plan for “the poor”. If 909 doesn’t work, it will be 409, or 666, or 528(c)3 or whatever other number Cain pulls out of his ass.
Finally, there’s something very strange that goes on with the Tea Party and black candidates, and Cain is tapping into it. I don’t pretend to understand it completely, but I have witnessed it. In my Congressional District, there was a fairly unqualified black candidate who could at best parrot a little bit of teatard rhetoric. She didn’t make the ballot, but during her short run she caused a lot of excitement from the teabillies. My best guess about the interest she generated was this: If you think that Obama is an unqualified affirmative action candidate who stupid liberals voted for simply because he was black, then you also think it’s awfully clever to put up an unqualified black candidate to oppose a Democrat. This supposedly puts the stupid liberals in a bind, since they can’t criticize the TP’s black candidate, because they give any black candidate a huge pass due to their race. Part of the attraction is also that the black candidate gives the tea partiers immunity from all their past racism by virtue of supporting him or her.
I don’t want to emphasize this last point too much — Cain is mainly surging in the polls because he’s the flavor of the month for a party that can’t stand Romney. But he’s the only one left who hasn’t run for President before, so it’s him or the RINO from Massachusetts. I’m not counting him out.
WereBear
Thank you for such a good summing up of the incredibly screwed up thought processes of the Teabillies.
Simple observation indicates that “thoughts are screwed up.” Figuring out how, that’s the tricky part.
For me, I cannot watch Herman Cain; his inner smirking drives me nuts. He’s smart enough to come up with plausible idiocies and deliver them with a deadpan sincerity. This goes far in Republican Baseland.
cathyx
I don’t think you should dismiss the immunity to racism thought. I think that’s a big part of it.
mai naem
Cain is black black blackity black. Sorry, it sin’t happening. Pretty damn sure Cain is never going to be meeting with Presidnet Islam Karimov of Uz uz Uzbekistan or President Nazarbayev of Kaz Kaz Kazakshtan as President of the US.
xian
a man can dream
chrome agnomen
@cathyx:
agreed. uncle ruckus indeed.
RossInDetroit
The possibility of a US presidential election between two black men fills me with all kinds of odd feelings. All overruled by the nausea brought on by Cain.
Even though he’s this moment’s polls leader I don’t take him seriously. He hasn’t got the money or the machine to make a real run.
OTOH, at this point 8 years ago I was sure it would be Rudy vs HRC, so what do I know?
Ben Cisco
Nice analysis, and I have to second kathyx’ statement – it is about projection with this bunch, and in their minds they think backing Cain is clever. Somehow, they never get past the “what will piss liberals off” mode of thinking.
__
What they don’t realize is that (and I’m speaking as an AA here) we didn’t vote for Obama b/c he was black, we voted for him b/c he was SANE. Cain’s BS may be shined up enough to get past the Teabillies, but the rest of us won’t see it that way.
Violet
It seems like sort of reverse racism. “Look at us! We’re voting for a black guy to prove we’re not racist!” Which is just as racist as not voting for the black guy because he’s black.
Teabaggers are weird.
Villago Delenda Est
Cain’s problem isn’t with the color of his skin.
It’s with the content of his character.
And his utterly moronic SimCity based tax scheme.
RossInDetroit
@Violet:
And it has nothing to do with the other guy being a Mormon. No, nothing at all.
Nevgu
Sigh…the stupid it burns. mistermix….sit down sonny I have some bad news for you. Cain has zero…zero chance. It is about as certain as Palin not running for Prez was a year ago. Something you also completely missed.
Do you even know how to cross the street by yourself?
Why do people buy into the media BS? Sheesh….no wonder America is doomed. Because people like mistermix vote yet he has no clue.
Cole really knows how to pick his typing monkeys…sigh.
dmsilev
@RossInDetroit: While I don’t doubt that there are some in the GOP base that don’t like Romney because he’s a Mormon, most of the animus seems to be “we can’t trust him”. Which, given that he’s taken about 8 different positions on every issue, is not unreasonable.
Jay in Oregon
@Villago Delenda Est:
Which, if he’s pushing the “9-0-9” line, he’s already carving out special exemptions for.
Wait for certain industries to be exempt from their particular “9” for being ESSENTIAL GALTIAN JOB CREATORZ! soon…
The Snarxist Formerly Known As Kryptik
I’m not overlooking anyone even if they look like a ‘Flavor of the Day’ simply because…well, fuck, look at how much Palin’s celebrity helped poison the well.
The sad fact is that ‘What Pisses Off the Libs’ is still more than a viable platform to run on, it’s a winnable platform, because this country still fucking abhors ‘hippies’, and thanks to years of Hippie Punching, the sheer fact of having a D by your name means you’re a Hippie, no questions asked.
Villago Delenda Est
As I’ve said before, this time last cycle, it was anyone but McCain, who was deemed by the wingtards as utterly unacceptable to them, because he was too “moderate”. I dare say that the MSM’s embrace of McCain was also a factor in why the wingtards didn’t like him. Don’t forget that the first birther outburst was Paulista primordial slime wailing about how McCain wasn’t “natural born” because he was born in the Panama Canal Zone.
But, once the primary process is completed, the wingtards will duly get into line. They always do.
Xenos
Authoritarians often have a manichean world-view and understanding of the moral structure of creation. They assume that since they are good, people who are opposed to them are opposed to them in the exact opposite way on all the issues. They assume that liberals voting for a black guy is just as racist as a white supremacist refusing to vote for any black guy.
So if they nominate a black guy, liberals can’t support another black guy without proving that the conservatives are not racists. Since liberals hate conservatives as much as conservatives hate liberals, just like the devil must hate goodness in the exact same way that Jesus hates evil.
This means that by nominating Cain the republicans hope to make the Democratic party disappear in a puff of logic. Or get so confused that we all stay home. Something like that.
Villago Delenda Est
@Ben Cisco:
This.
The problem is, the wingtards will vote against the sane candidate just to piss the “liberals” off.
Linda Featheringill
This is probably a factor. That line of thought might not even be conscious.
Also, Cain is interesting when he speaks. He truly is full of right wing nonsense, so he doesn’t have to lie about that.
I don’t know where he’s going but it might be fun to watch the process. Pass the popcorn.
MikeJ
@Xenos: They still haven’t gotten over Mudd’s Women.
amk
O’rly ?
pl mob begs to differ. They have been at it since Nov 6, 2008.
greylocks
Also, Cain is crazier than Romney. The crazies love themselves some crazy.
Violet
@Villago Delenda Est:
The 2010 election showed a lot of fault lines in wingnutistan. The Alaska Senate election, for instance, where Sarah Palin supported teatard darling Miller, who won the Republican nomination, but current Senator Murkowski wouldn’t go down without a fight and eventually won the election. Similar teatard craziness in Nevada ensured that Reid kept his seat.
I’m not saying there isn’t a strong element of “falling in line” at play, but I don’t think they know which line they should stand in as well as they did ten years ago.
Evolving Deep Southerner (tense changed for accuracy)
I think it’s a straight up Uncle Tom/Uncle Remus/Step-N-Fetchit thing they’ve got going on with Herman Cain. That vibe makes them feel magnanimous in their arrogant ignorance.
Linda Featheringill
@Ben Cisco: #7
Speaking for the melanin-challenged portion of the population, a lot of us voted for Obama because he was the most competent candidate around. He also happened to be black but that didn’t matter.
Cain is probably sane but isn’t competent enough to give Obama a real run for the election. And his blackness won’t save him.
Shawn
On the positive side, this post made me feel like listening to Rickie Lee Jones. So Cain may be completely unfit and the Republicans might be so screwed up that we’re all doomed; but at least we can listen to good music as the nation jumps off the cliff.
ant
I think Cain would make a fine Republican nominee. Let’s do it. lol
Has he gotten over his long form nerf certifkate hurdle yet?
Let’s see it.
RossInDetroit
Cain also has appeal because he’s unfamiliar so far to most people. Mitt is like the ex you see every weekend to hand off the kids. Santorum is the sanctimonious brother in law you get enough of at holidays. Perry’s the kids’ football coach who’s interesting until he’s stumbled through two sentences. Newt’s the gabby neighbor who wants to tell the whole block how to live. Bachmann’s the Avon lady who insists you need a makeover. Into her. Paul’s the hectoring bank VP you have to be polite to so you can get a car loan.
Cain just hasn’t worn everyone down yet with his brand of teh crazy. But he will.
amk
teh goopers’ horse race
Have fun.
Linda Featheringill
@RossInDetroit: #26
Pretty good analysis, actually. :-)
lamh32
@RossInDetroit:
here’s my problem with this whole “imagine a Presidential Election between to African American” fantasy white liberals have been expoounding about rather than just calling this what it is, if this were a competition between two SERIOUS African Americans candidates, then yes, the “wow can you believe it” factor of having 2 AA vying for POTUS would be valid.
But…if anyone believes that Hermain Cain REALLY wants to be POTUS and is not just vying for a plum spot on Faux News ala Mark Sanford, then they are being purposely naive or purposely delusional.
Personally, as an AA, I’m more upset by Cain’s giving shield to GOP/Teabilly racism, but still, I can’t knock his hustle, and it kinda tickles me to no end, that he’s taking this idiotic white teabilly for all they are worth.
I never thought I’d say this, but I feel bad for Black conservatives, cause after Cain, who the hell will take them seriously now, especially in the GOP.
arguingwithsignposts
@Linda Featheringill:
I don’t see it.
Hoodie
Herman Cain puts forth the image of what my right wing father in law thinks black people should be like, e.g. “honest”, salt of the earth types who make no excuses and succeed in pedestrian things like running a pizza chain. In other words, Cain is popular with the TPers because he provides confirmation for the cultural biases of the demographic group that forms the core of the TP, namely older white folks. Last night on Maddow, Melissa Perry Harris ran the tape of that portion of the last debate in which Cain reiterated his comments on the unemployed and poor being responsible for their own plight (Harris pointed out that a big chunk of the poor are children). The positive reaction to Cain’s remarks from the crowd of middle age to elderly whites appeared to be even more intense than that given during the death penalty, uninsured patient and other dubious incidents in the prior debates. They panned across the audience, and it was clear they were eagerly lapping up Cain’s nonsense. Thus, while there is a certain element of “piss off the liberals/let’s be clever and push a black candidate against Obama” to the Cain boom, Cain is also succeeding because he’s hitting a sweet spot of the rightwing gospel, philistinic moralizing about poverty. And he’s more effective at this because he can more get away with it more than a Mitt Romney, who risks coming across as to the manor born. He also provides a more effective shield for expressing this type of cultural bias. Cain is Creflo Dollar tailored for a white audience.
arguingwithsignposts
@lamh32:
I’m sure all five of them will soldier on somehow.
amk
@arguingwithsignposts: colin powell is going to be in a pickle, isn’t he ? Whom to endorse, the blackety black or the half-black ? Ummm …
mai naem
@RossInDetroit: Paul is not the hectoring banker. Paul is the convenience store conspiracy nut cashier who sees black helicopters flying above him and hidden rfds in the lottery tickets he sells.
RossInDetroit
@lamh32:
My neighborhood is 98% white and 86% Dem. The only GOP yard signs I see are on the property of an AA neighbor. Anomalous data point I’m sure.
I don’t think Cain belongs in the presidential election, but the fact that he’s anywhere near it, in the GOP no less, I think is a positive sign. Maybe there are 11 dimensional reasons for people to be backing him. But I’m certain this is also a sign of a lot of the old school race haters ageing out.
PeakVT
@Violet: Don’t forget
PolandDelaware.Mino
The id of Teabaggers must be some kind of snakepit.
Evolving Deep Southerner (tense changed for accuracy)
@Hoodie:
Exactly. You articulated the Uncle Tom/Uncle Remus thing I was trying to put my finger on earlier.
RossInDetroit
@mai naem:
I like that. Who did we miss? Oh, Huntsman is the high school principal who kicks himself every day that he’s not a university professor with some kind of challenges ahead of him instead of trying to simply carve order out of chaos.
ETA: thank you NYT for this outstanding pic of a Tea Partier to make me laugh:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/22/us/politics/wall-st-protest-isnt-like-ours-tea-party-says.html?_r=1&hp
Jay in Oregon
@lamh32:
If RNC Chairman Michael Steele didn’t set black conservatives back by a decade or more, I dunno how much more damage Cain can do to them.
piratedan
I guess that speaks to American exceptionalism, in that you can be a lackey of the man despite your race, creed and color (excepting Mexicans, Muslims and smart women). We’ve truly come a long way, I think Lincoln and the rest of the Founders would be proud ;-).
Hoodie
@Evolving Deep Southerner (tense changed for accuracy): Yes, but it’s more than simple Uncle Tomism. Cain can express the id of these folks more openly without getting the kind of criticism that a white candidate might get. Thus, he represents a step in the evolution of the reactionary wing of the Republican party. It’s not about race per se, it’s about fuck you, I got mine. That’s Cain’s core message, which the TPer’s are eager to consume.
lamh32
@RossInDetroit:
I don’t buy it. it think this is more like old race-baiters trying to split the baby and being too old and too racist to realize just because you nominate a black guy don’t mean “the blacks” will come nor does it mean that “the blacks” will be conflicted.
Obama has what i read the last time 96% Black support to Cain’s obvious 4%.
I’m sorry, I’m not willing to give the GOP any props because they like Hermain Cain. If the GOP voters were serious about such a serious-mined AA candidate, I’d give them their props…but they are not. the goodness of their hearts ain’t got nothing to do with it.
Quality matters. Courage of conviction matters. If the GOP voters were willing to vote for an AA who at the very least calls them on their bigotted ways, then maybe I’d be more inclined to feel all warm, but they will not and have not.
Maybe that makes me ungraceful, but so be it.
amk
@lamh32: Exactly. These racist mofos tried it first with steele and got kicked in their nuts for it since he talked sense at least once. Now they’re rooting for a meaner mofo.
harlana
he can’t make up his mind on abortion.
that is death for any republican contender. stick a fork in him, he’s done.
NEXT!
Odie Hugh Manatee
@chrome agnomen:
Cain’s proud explaination about his Dad telling him to “go to the back of the bus” to avoid involving himself in controversial situations (in this case it was the civil rights marches) says what every racist wingnut wants to hear:
Shorter Cain: Vote for me, I know my place!
Uncle Ruckus indeed. I wonder if he thinks he has reverse vitiligo.
harlana
I saw Jon Huntsman on Tweety’s show last nite. I know the guy has to be extremely intelligent but he came off as a real airhead to me. Also, shoves his head in the sand and refuses to address the problems of today’s republican party. For a guy who wants to separate himself from the pack, he’s not doing such a great job of that.
Way too timid. (YAWN)
General Stuck
OT
The Obama shell game. Now you see it, now you don’t. (or, how I learned to stop worrying, and learned to love the smooth move)
Lesson in action. How to withdraw from a bad war with wingnut proof cover.
Tally Ho, motherfuckers!
Rafer Janders
I get this all the time from GOP friends, the claim that 95% of the black vote went for Obama so that means that blacks only voted for him because he was “one of theirs”. When I then point out that Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry all got between 85% to 92% of the black vote, and that the trend of African-American voters has been trending steadily upwards for 30 years anyway, they stare at me with a blank look as they furiously try to process and then spin that information.
quannlace
Don’t forget. This is the same type of people who, a few years back, had an anti-environmental day. They were urged to leave all their lights on, crank up the AC and leave their car’s running in the driveway. All in the belief that this would show all those dirty liberal ecologists who had the God given right to our natural resources. The fact that they were wasting THEIR gas and running up THEIR electric bills seemed to be lost on them.
Violet
@RossInDetroit:
No, Huntsman is a high school principal who used to be a university professor, but gave that up to move back to his wife’s hometown because she was homesick. He thought he would be able to “make a difference” as a high school principal, but soon realized it’s a thankless task where you spend most of your days dealing with unruly kids, no one takes you seriously, most people think you’re a loser who can’t get a real job and far too much politicking is required to get anything done. He’s trying to make the best of it, but inside he’s pretty annoyed with where he’s ended up.
amk
@harlana: For all his aloofness and his wooing in NH, jonny boy still hasn’t crossed the 2% mark. He is out after NH. Pappa huntsman is gonna be pissed off.
RossInDetroit
@lamh32: For a while I was really concerned about a Powell run for prez, but he unequivocally ruled it out. That would have been a hard act to beat. The GOP has a thing for military men.
KCinDC
Here in DC, Ron Moten, a candidate for city council (a colorful character who’s a former drug dealer and now works with youth) is announcing he’s switching from Democrat to Republican. Our “liberal” Washington Post has given him a op-ed piece to spew the currently fashionable garbage about the GOP being the true party of civil rights while Democrats are the real racists.
He’s not going to win, but I can imagine him getting a lot of attention, even nationally, over the next year, as a black man in an almost-majority-black, 75% Democratic city running as a “civil rights Republican”. Not coincidentally, he has a book coming out.
Alex S.
At some point, Cain will have to sabotage his own campaign because I don’t think that he really wants to be president. And in my opinion, he’s a fairly intelligent and charming man with the relatively narrow perspective of a small business owner. His platform is a combination of several things that sound good and conservative. It’s as if his slogans were created by a low-level marketing guy without any background in economics, politics or social matters. In other words, he’s the best natural talent the Republicans offer this year (quite the contrast to Romney who has money, name recognition and connections, but no charm and little social or rhetorical skills).
Princess
I think he just did sabotage it, when he came out with a pretty clear pro-choice position on abortion. He has muddied the waters since, but has not walked it all the way back. He’s doomed, and probably on purpose. A VP nod or god forbid a presidential nomination could really mess up his grift…
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@RossInDetroit: Excellent use of common imagery. I’m eagerly awaiting the description of Herb Cain.
RossInDetroit
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q):
Okay. Cain’s the Ford dealership owner who shows up at County Commission meetings to rail against waste, fraud and abuse in sewerage contracts. He can’t understand why government doesn’t operate like his successful business. He just can’t.
lamh32
@RossInDetroit:
yep Colin Powell would have been a serious candidate, and IMHO, it would have been a real possiblity of more AA crossinin over and voting GOP, I know that a lot of liberals do not have kind words for Colin Powell, but he is still receives a warm reception in AA communities for the work he and his wife does for education.
Condi Rice would be a harder sell, but still viable.
Clarenc Thomas woulda been no better than herman Cain. not many people like Clarence in the AA community. The only black Justice that anyone will be happy to lay claim to is Thurgodd Marshall. Because of the nature of Thomas’ appointment and the whole Anita Hill situatio, Thomas is NOT well liked. Oh and don’t get me started on his wife!
phoebes-in-santa fe
@dmsilev: Hell, I don’t trust him, either, and I’m a liberal Democrat! I don’t care a whit about his religious beliefs but I can’t stand him because of his craven flip-flopping (now there’s a word from the past!) on every issue. Who knows WHAT Mitt Romney truly believes in? I don’t even think HE knows. He just wants to be president.
RossInDetroit
@lamh32:
There might have been a chance of a political career for Powell until the Bush White House burned him. They handed him a pack of lies to feed the UN to justify the Iraq war they wanted. I imagine that soured him on politics if he wasn’t already. I was pleased to see his whole hearted support for Obama 4 years ago.
Villago Delenda Est
@mai naem:
He’s Dale from “King of the Hill”.
polyorchnid octopunch
@Villago Delenda Est: Baha! That’s the best line I’ve heard all year! Props!
FlipYrWhig
Wasn’t Cain fairly recently trounced in a Congressional primary (in Georgia, maybe)? I have a hard time believing that he’s so politically talented and whatnot. I think all the other candidates just obviously suck, even to the Republicans themselves. He’s not a crazy person, he’s not old news, and he’s not a moderate. That’s all he has going for him. I feel like any randomly-chosen fledging Congressman would be in exactly the same position he is.
Samara Morgan
Neither Cain or Romney can beat Obama in 2012.
Because the GOP is entirely dependent on white voters.
Some white voters will not vote for a mormon, some white voters will not vote for a black man.
There is plenty of sentiment polling to support this, and it aint done by rasmussen.
But even uber-leet statisticians like Nate Silver wont talk about this, because it spoils the horse race….. and their paychecks.
:)
handsmile
No matter how many times variations on this theme are posted here (even if the title of this one does invoke Rickie Lee Jones), there is NO CHANCE whatsoever that Herman Cain will be the 2012 presidential nominee of the Republican Party.
All the proof you need may be found in the number of African Americans who currently serve in Congress or serve as Governors: 2 out of 585. There are two black Representatives, Allen West (FL) and Tim Scott (SC); zero black senators (there hasn’t been one since Edward Brooke in 1979); and zero black governors.
That’s a percentage of 0.0034. So by all means let’s speculate some more on the possibility that a majority of individuals currently registered as GOP voters will be casting their primary ballots for a black man to be President of the United States.
Regardless of their responses, for whatever reason, to a pollster, their actual voting decisions are indisputable. Mistermix himself provides evidence of this in his post:
suzanne
@RossInDetroit: Damn. You are absolutely right.
Samara Morgan
@handsmile: agreed.
its the horse race and teh PAYCHECK.
even mathematically-leet Nate Silver is not immune.
Cacti
My main reason for thinking Cain is a flash in the pan is money.
He’s hardly raised any.
Samara Morgan
@handsmile: and even the “morally-leet” and “fair” Jake Tapper.
they are all subject to the tyranny of the “freed” market, where no one clicks on anything they do not want to read…
arguingwithsignposts
@handsmile:
um, you might want to check that
numberdate again.Cacti
@Samara Morgan:
Bush won re-election in 2004 with 58% of the white vote and 44% of the Hispanic vote.
There’s no chance in hell that any Repub gets 44% of the Hispanic vote in 2012.
arguingwithsignposts
@arguingwithsignposts: ah, the edit explains it.
handsmile
@arguingwithsignposts:
Um, no, the date is correct. What I neglected to type was “stepped down” between the name and the date.
arguingwithsignposts
@handsmile: Sorry, I thought you were referring to _all_ senators, not just GOP, in which case Obama and Burris would have been more recent.
ETA: interesting there have only been four black governors, all dems. except one R during reconstruction.
Chris
@lamh32:
My problem is that one of the African-Americans is not a bigot, but the other one – the one promising he’ll never nominate a Muslim, promising to repeal DADT and LOLing at the idea of an automatic Mexican-fryer at the border – IS.
Even IF we assume that this is as meaningful as some people are saying – it still wouldn’t prove that the country’s gotten more tolerant, it would only show that black people (like the Germans, then the Irish, then the Italians, then the Jews before them) are finally being let into the country club. But that of course simply means there are new people to hate and marginalize. And Herman Cain, like all those “ethnic but white” anti-civil rights Nixon voters in the post-Kennedy 1960s, simply personifies the “I Got Mine Fuck You” mindset of so many people who’ve been let in the country club.
Of course, anti-black bigotry still isn’t nearly that toned down – a better analogy for Cain would be Charles Coughlin, Irish-Catholic in the 1930s, whose heritage was still considered much too improper for the country club, but who had no problem teaming up with the club members in hating black people and Jews.
Boots Day
I get this all the time from GOP friends, the claim that 95% of the black vote went for Obama so that means that blacks only voted for him because he was “one of theirs”.
And what percent of the evangelical vote did GWB get?
handsmile
@arguingwithsignposts:
And let us not forget Carol Moseley Braun! (Also from Illinois, interestingly.)
It was a major oops on my part to have neglected to specify GOP party affiliation when I first typed that paragraph. Luckily I caught it while reviewing it after submitting.
Cheers!
barkleyg
Charles Pierce had this to say, and I agree 100% !
The GOP Is Not Giving Up 50 Years of Bigotry for This Guy
Read more: http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/rise-of-herman-cain-2012-race-6510425#ixzz1bWmp8Eaq
JGabriel
mistermix:
Perfect. You know why?
Because Cain would be hiring people who worked for Michele Bachmann. I can’t imagine these are the brightest bulbs in the GOP array.
.
RossInDetroit
I just drove past his church on my errands this morning. He’s not been forgotten around here, much as the Church has tried. Those were some nasty people.
JWL
Last Sunday in his regular weekly column for the San francisco Chronicle, Willie Brown (ex-mayor and former Speaker of the California Assembly) predicted Cain would be the GOP’s VP nominee in 2012.
Anoniminous
The GOP convention has, of right now, a total of 2,426 delegates. The total number of caucus delegates is 486 with 186 of those being unpledged, meaning they can vote for whomever they want. It takes 1,214 votes to win the nominiation.
Looking at the total count, 486 doesn’t seem like all that much but they represent 40% of the winning vote. Doing badly in the caucus states makes it a tough job to get to the nomination.
Plus the primary states of New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and Michigan are set to lose one half of their delegates if they have their primary before the date established by the GOP National Committee. This would bring the total delegate count down to 2,272 raising the caucus percentage-of-winning to 42%.
In short, doing badly in the caucus states makes it damn near impossible for a candidate to get the nomination.
Cain’s lack of organization will hurt him in the caucus states. Caucus’ privilege the candidate who can get their supporters into the room, to participate in the process. Not having the ‘boots on the ground’ hurt Clinton during the last go-round and it will hurt Cain this time, as well.
Unless the Cain campaign addresses this it is almost certain he will not be the Republican’s 2012 candidate.
gene108
I don’t think Cain is the “flavor of the month”. I think he could be a serious candidate, if he did what serious candidates do, like campaign in the early primary states and aggressively try to raise funds.
He’s doing neither in a way that makes it seem like he’s not really all-in, with regards to being President, the way Romney or Perry or even Bachman is all-in.
I think being a CEO and not having held government office before, given the Republican deification of the private sector and business owners/executives, is a plus.
They think a CEO is better than a governor or member of Congress, for example, because the private sector is better than the government at everything. Only losers and slackers, who couldn’t hack it in the “real world” of private enterprise, sulk off to work for the government.
When Cain’s campaign craps out it will not be because he didn’t really have a chance, but because he isn’t doing the things serious candidates do. He’s just running for shits and giggles and however much PAC money he can raise for a rainy day.
Brachiator
@mistermix:
Bullshit.
What odious liberal racism. Sarah Palin was unqualified. Michelle Bachmann is unqualified. Donald Trump was unqualified. The entire GOP field reeks of incompetence.
And yet, you have this weird need to yoke Obama and Cain together?
And you think that Republicans, especially Tea Party morons, would deliberately latch onto a candidate simply because he was black and unqualified? To accomplish what? To make liberals giggle?
Seems to me that the Tea Party People and other conservatives are looking for the candidate who reflects their values, even if that person doesn’t stand a chance in hell of actually getting elected.
Aside from that, you should take your “best guess” and put it where the sun don’t shine.
What does this even mean? As far as I can see, the Tea Party often indulges in racism with impunity. While candidates and other in the public eye might get an occasional mild hand slap, this is irrelevant to Tea Party voters.
ellenelle
mmm, i dunno, mrmix; yours is an interesting theory, but one that i fear gives the teatards way too much credit, as it’s a little too psychologically complex.
born and raised in the south, would rather die than live there again, my take is more simply that racist white folk love dem some unca toms, especially if they can use them as tools.
cain serves the ostensible purpose of putting the lie to their racism. they’re not bothered by electing this kind of black man because, once he’s in office of course, he’ll still be their tool, their boy.
he’s already being fitted for the jockey’s hat and hitching post to grace the front lawn of the white house.
(caveat: all this assumes cain is taking his
book tourcampaign seriously.)ellenelle
ps. meant to thank you for the nice rickie lee ref in the title; love that cut.
ruemara
I once did a cartoon about diversity. It was 3 girls, dressed identically, nearly the same physical shape, only the shading was different. Tolerating difference, as long as you’re not too different. This is all the Teapublicans are doing. Cain hates black people as much as they do. And seriously, stop saying he ran a pizza parlor. He had nothing to do with creating Godfather’s Pizza. He was an executive, given a division to run, he later bought it out with another group. This man is a pure, simple business douche. And those of you who disagree that supporting the black guy who hates blacks as much as you do is possible, I can’t help you. The servile, craven Cain, who talks down to black audiences, repeats every trope about them in speeches, his odious commercial to entice black people to vote Republican and pro-life… yeah, can’t imagine why he’s nearly a KKK poster boy for Negroes We Prefer.
Anoniminous
@Brachiator:
I think one has to live in the South to get the nuances (? is that the word I want?) of southern White bigotry. I’m by no means an expert on the subject; all of my “evidence” (sic) is anecdotal, gained while growing-up White during the last years of Jim Crow. Which is to say: feel free to tell me I’m full of it. ;-)
It’s a given Blacks are inferior to Whites.
Moving past that, there are strong cultural overlaps. Not only Whites influencing Blacks but Blacks influencing Whites. The Call-and-Response one can observe in White churches, in the south, comes straight from Western African Culture, as an example.
In the South, Whites cannot isolate themselves, in the same degree, from Blacks as they can in the rest of the country. (“Country Club” and “Gated Community” racism is present in the South but there’s a concurrent disdain for poor and working class Whites there as well.) There’s a greater degree of willingness to see some individual Blacks AS individuals based on continuous “separate but unequal” social interaction.
Thus, Cain getting White support in the South, as highly unlikely as it may seem on the face of it, not a complete surprise if their choice is a Mormon XOR an Associate Minister in a Baptist Church — even if that Minister is Black.
Brachiator
@Anoniminous:
You acknowledge that racism is not a single, monolithic thing. But you still seem gripped in the foolishness that all Tea Party people must be racist, and are racist in the same way, and that their fondness for Cain is based on racism.
So, why would a stone racist who believed that blacks are inferior, vote for a black person to be president of the United States? Would they have some fantasy that the Real White Man in Charge(tm) would take over behind the scenes? You know, like how that white guy Cheney was running things in the background while that unqualified white guy, Dubya played at being president.
The most sickening racism displayed toward Obama always is rooted in the idea that he shouldn’t be occupying the White House, that his very presence there demeans the office, and that, of course, in the sentiments echoed by mistermix, that Obama is in no way qualified to be president, that the job inherently belongs to a white Christian man, or maybe Sarah Palin.
I don’t see how stone racists would exempt Cain from this, just because he is a Christian.
By the way, I was born in Texas. I think I have a pretty good idea about the ways of the South.
@ruemara:
Really? Based on what?
@ellenelle:
It always amuses me when people think that they can safely trot out racist sentiments as long as it is directed at a black conservative.
Mack Lyons
@RossInDetroit:No mention of Huntsman. At this point, he may as well be wallpaper.
JWL
Anoniminous: You might know the answer to this question I’ve asked it a few times on various blogs, but no one has yet so much as ventured a guess.
Is there any chance, or even likelihood, that no republican candidate will have secured the nomination by the time their convention opens? That it could be a brokered convention, in which a dark horse could emerge?
If I were a republican, that’s the scenario I’d be praying for.
dj spellchecka
@Rafer Janders:
yes, kerry got 90% of the black vote and obama got 95%….in other words, half of the african americans who voted republican in 04 switched parties…. that was the only change
Mino
Is Cain just the stand-in for yelling none-of-the-above? They could well be that cynical.
Triassic Sands
There are millions of ways to be stupid and Cain and Perry demonstrate two of them. Perry’s MO is the tried-and-true dumb as a rock form of stupidity. He makes it clear that there’s nothing upstairs, and for people who are also dumb as a rock, he offers a comfortable option.
Cain, is more agile than Perry, but he’s drawing on a reservoir of pure nonsense. There is plenty “up there,” but none of it makes much sense and it’s pretty easy to rip apart. But at a time when Perry would just stand there tongue tied uttering “duh” over and over, Cain fires off his replacement nonsense with surprising speed. None of it stands up to even the most cursory scrutiny, but every time a new statement is shot down, Cain comes up with some variation of his critics are just confusing apples and oranges and don’t really understand, blah, blah, blah.
So, take your pick: Perry’s pure cranial vacuum or Cain’s landfill of inanity.
Dream On
@JWL:
And then – the rise of Jeb Bush. His country needs him, you know.
Yutsano
@Dream On:
There went my chances of sleep tonight. Of course the Mexican wife will take some splaining.
rikyrah
Herman Cain is the Tea Party’s A.B.C.
period.
they always love a Black shuffler and jiggler ready to parrot for them.
JWL
Dream On: Which is why I asked the question.
I’m inclined to think the idea of another Bush in the White House (so very soon after His Brother, aka, The National Disaster) is unacceptable to voters. And then there’s JB’s Schiavo baggage.
But there are other asshole dark horses lurking in that organization’s wings.
And a lot of things are going to happen between now and the GOP’s convention.
People are on edge.
The Wall Street protest stuff, for example. Their ranks are bound to thin over the winter. But Mom & Pop T-Bagger/Hippy have drawn a bead on the casino owners.
So, come Spring, Summer, and Fall? Who knows? Not me.
But something’s got to give.
mclaren
As I’ve pointed out repeatedly (and am now being proven apodictically correct for saying), to the rest of us, Mormonism is no big deal, just another religion. But to the evangelical Dominionist Christian fundamentalists who make up the Republican base, Mormonism is a satanic cult devised by the Evil One to destroy the City On A Hill.
So the Republican base would rather vote for the corpse of Stalin than Mitt Romney. If Cain doesn’t stay the flavor of the month, some other wackaloon will replace him. Mitt Romeny is not going to get the Republican nomination for president in 2012. Never. Ever.
Not.
Gonna.
Happen.
AA+ Bonds
Clever rephrase of an argument I’ve made for some time on here, thanks :D
AA+ Bonds
I will also point out that Cain doesn’t have the money at all to go up against Romney and Perry’s campaign, and this is publicly known as of last week, so it would take a huge swing of donors to give him a realistic shot at the nomination – that or an absolutely unprecedented upset by a severely lower-funded campaign.
AA+ Bonds
@Brachiator:
If this wasn’t clear simply by how racist the party is in the first place, it would be made clear by Cain’s racist statements against blacks and Hispanics alike (which have hardly diminished his popularity among racist Republicans).
Cain serves as a way for racists to hide their racism behind a racist trope they can understand: the lone black man daring to point out that all the racists are right and black people need to stop complaining about how good they have it.
If you’re having trouble grasping the concept, read Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail ’72, in which Thompson interviews a black man working for George Wallace’s campaign. The campaign was quite fond of him and went out of their way to ensure Thompson talked to him. He had plenty to say about how segregation was great and how there was a secret gaggle of black people who were behind George Wallace but too intimidated by black radicals to say so.
Cain is a version of that on a national scale.
AA+ Bonds
@Brachiator:
^ This seems deliberately obtuse, by the way. They’re seeking to satisfy the same irrational impulses that lead them to be racists in the first place. They feel fine backing a black man who says all the same racist things against blacks that they say in private whites-only company, especially since he doesn’t have a chance in hell of becoming president. These people have psychological motivations behind their irrational acts and you have to know that already.
You must not have spent much time here if you can’t see an old, half-blind Confederate wannabe explaining how Cain is “one of the good ones”.