This is the story of the Herman Cain
Jim Newell wonders about Cain:
But there is at least one indicator that shows Cain might be able to hold on to it: His favorability rating in this PPP poll was 66%, the highest of all candidates. When Trump, Bachmann and Perry were at their peak, it was always by maximizing support in a relatively narrow band of the electorate.
So maybe he’ll hold on, but we still don’t “get” this Cain thing. What good reason is there for such a rapid shift in support other than a Tea Party protest vote against Rick Perry at a straw poll and a couple of funny lines at the debates? It’s not like he’s changed in the last month. He’s still the guy with no political experience whatsoever, who admittedly and proudly doesn’t care about foreign policy and stresses a wacko economic plan that repeats the arbitrary number “9” three times while taxing the shit out of poor people to bring in lower revenue hauls.
I think Republicans like Cain because they feel have some idea of what he is talking about. Anytime anyone says something slightly specific that wingers like, Cain will say “that’s in my 999 plan”. When things get boring during the debates, he just starts yelling about his 999 plan. And it’s a simple, retro, un-focus-grouped name.
Cain doesn’t get drawn into discussions of HPV or QEII or Uz-beki-beki-stan-stan-stan or other stuff his audience doesn’t understand. He doesn’t fall asleep on stage like Gingrich and Perry. He’s the only guy avoiding both of these traps, and that’s why he’s winning in a lot of polls.
Don’t forget that Cain is their ‘black friend’ that proves they aren’t racist. I think its a minor factor, but certainly exists*.
eta-* With all the GOP’s problems with identity politics, there’s always a little bit to having a black guy, a woman, etc. to prove they aren’t bigots/sexists/whatever.
October 13th, 2011 at 10:46 am
Romney will still win though. Cain is just a side show. Is his accent a put on? I doubt that he spoke the way he does now when he was a CEO.
ETA: Romney will win the GOP nomination I mean.
October 13th, 2011 at 10:46 am
he’s the newest not-romney. nuff said.
October 13th, 2011 at 10:47 am
Why did Cain release his medical records? Have the other GOP prez runners released theirs?
October 13th, 2011 at 10:47 am
DougJ@top
Are you a big fan of Dylan?
October 13th, 2011 at 10:47 am
I think Cain stands out because the rest of the field is so… well, you know. Cain is your crazy uncle, the others are the ones who lie to your crazy uncle and make him crazy.
October 13th, 2011 at 10:48 am
He’s as dumb as his constituents, and they like that in a candidate.
Also, the 9-9-9 plan is capturing the Lennonist vote.
October 13th, 2011 at 10:49 am
If the way to the top of one our two main political parties is to be stupid and not fall asleep in public, this country is well and truly fucked.
October 13th, 2011 at 10:49 am
@Maude: I think he had cancer years back.
October 13th, 2011 at 10:49 am
What part of Attention Deficit Disorder does Jim Newell not understand?
October 13th, 2011 at 10:50 am
@schrodinger’s cat:
I’m not the biggest Dylan fan, but I like that song.
October 13th, 2011 at 10:51 am
I think the 999 plan really helps. Everyone else puts out some word salad vagueness that hits the key words, but Cain actually has a solid plan. It’s a shitty plan, but it’s right there in plain english.
Plus, not caring about furrin’ countries is an American tradition.
October 13th, 2011 at 10:52 am
and curiously, watching the msnbc magpies this morning, not one of these points is brought up—not even a casual dismissal of the neinneinnein… which they all think is so catchy and clever…
October 13th, 2011 at 10:53 am
i think it’s crazy to say Cain can’t win the nom (TPM, for example)
if your choice is between a slightly-creepy, flip/flopping, Mormon and a black, self-made, CEO who says all the right things, there’s not much choice.
October 13th, 2011 at 10:54 am
Not sure how it will end up for Mr. Cain, but I would be willing to wager a shitload that he doesn’t win South Carolina. For some reason. Can’t really put my finger on why.
October 13th, 2011 at 10:55 am
@bkny: The soft bigotry of low expectations. If a Republican plan has actual, honest-to-God numbers in, however ridiculous or false, the plan is serious and demands a response from the Democrats. Meanwhile, a Dem plan needs to eliminate the national debt, cut taxes, and cure cancer to get any praise, and even then it’ll probably be criticized as “too partisan” for hurting drug companies’ cancer drug profits.
October 13th, 2011 at 10:56 am
@Dave: Your point being … ?
October 13th, 2011 at 10:57 am
@MeDrewNotYou: This. And I don’t think it’s all that minor. Plus, he’s a “black friend” who blames blacks for being brainwashed by Dems and claims it’s their own fault that poor (teabagger translation – brown) people are poor.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:00 am
Now that all the white folk have been given a shot and failed, attention turns toward the black guy. It’s like the hiring process for football coaches in the NFL: Token interviews at the beginning—serious attention when all other options have been exhausted.
Unfortunately, the GOP faithful is rallying around a guy for the head coaching job whose previous experience is delivering pizzas to frat parties.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:00 am
Mitt Romney could take away support from Herman Cain by a) Converting to evangelical Christianity; and b) Touting his new “Buy One Get One Free” tax plan.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:01 am
It’s just anti-romney crowd that is flocking now to ‘herb’, “the favor of the week”. He will lose to mittmentum shortly. I give it up to the end of this month.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:01 am
@cleek: Given GOP’s history, it is hard to see Cain win the nomination.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:03 am
I’m pretty sure they’re not going to find something called a Niggerhead in Cain’s past which makes him a safer bet to not crash and burn going forward. I’m just enjoying that that smarmy fuck Romney must be stewing in some serious WTF juices right now, after being crowned Tuesday night.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:04 am
please, they like Cain cause it proves that the GOP can’t possibly be racist, since so hey look, we like Cain.
I will say it again, what is the upside to making Cain the VP or nominee. The GOP ain’t getting Black people to vote ‘cause they put a “brutha” on the ticket (Obama’s got that sewn, I saw a poll that said Obama vs Cain was 96% for Obama for Black votes). I don’t think Cain is a dumb guy. I actually think he is way smarter than Bachmann/Perry/Palin combined. But it’s obvious once you look past the exterior, that Cain has no idea what he’s talking about. He seems, IMHO, to be running a con on the GOP who after Obama, Michael Steele so don’t want to be deemed racist.
Oh…and they hate Romney too!
October 13th, 2011 at 11:04 am
Let’s not make the mistake that we always seem to make: the reason GOP voters like Cain is because he is likable. He exudes decency and competence, and seems like a nice guy.
Our side always seems to think that voters respond to positions, statements, platforms, etc. It’s why we think people like McGovern, Mondale, Gore, Kerry and H. Clinton are good candidates. What we overlook is that people want to support someone they like. It was Reagan’s key to success, and evidently people liked W. Clinton, though his charm has always eluded me.
Cain is absolutely for real. Thank God Mittens will slug it out with him in what we can only hope will be a brutal, expensive and demoralizing race for the nomination.
It’s also worth remembering that no one actually believes any of these GOP-ers are going to beat Obama. It may be a touch-and-go thing, but the chances of the President losing are mighty slim.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:04 am
Not that they aren’t capable of Grand Hypocrisy, but the GOP base, wanting to dump Obama because he’s Presidenting while Black, is going to vote for Cain as a replacement? They’ll vote for ANY Sparkly Pony 3rd-party alternative that’s offered, or stay home.
In other words, Go Cain Go! If Obama loses to HIM, it was a hopeless cause to begin with. That’s throwing out a quarterback fresh out of high school against an NFL defense.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:04 am
@amk: This is really about Mitt Romney, not Herman Cain. I’m sure the Republican base will rally around Mitt in the general but right now they’re in Anyone But Mitt mode.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:05 am
From what I can tell by the wingers surrounding me it is the fact that he has actually, you know, held a job (that is exactly how they will say it). He has run a business. They actually think that running a business is the gold standard of solid leadership. These lawn care / landscape magnates with a couple of weed eaters and a few teenagers believe that successfully running a business puts you right up there with God Himself. I love to listen to them pontificate.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:05 am
Can anyone explain to me the obsession with the Presidential Candidate’s religion? Did this start with Dubya, Jesus is my favorite philosopher or has it always been the case?
October 13th, 2011 at 11:06 am
@schrodinger’s cat:
I don’t know if his accent is genuine, but every time he’s on the teevee, I close my eyes and hear George Jefferson.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:07 am
Brilliant thread title, Doug.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:07 am
I always get a bit skeptical of the “he may be crazy, but at least he’s a straight talking straight shooter” approach. Mostly because its waaay too complimentary of Cain.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:08 am
@different-church-lady: Exactly. If these folks had an attention span, they’d realize what a pack of jackals the Republican party really is.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:09 am
It’s about time the Republicans had their own George Wallace.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:10 am
Haven’t read a thing but the title yet, but Doug? Where would you like me to deliver your internets?
October 13th, 2011 at 11:11 am
@schrodinger’s cat:
there was a lot of worry about Kennedy’s religion, too – “taking order from the Pope” etc..
October 13th, 2011 at 11:12 am
He also hates gays and Muslims. That goes a long way with the Party of Other-Bashing.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:12 am
He’s panderingly ignorant and bold. Of course they love it. And 9-9-9 sounds catchy (mmmm, pizza coupons) without any pesky attempt at doing the math and knowing facts that interfere with the catchy slogan.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:12 am
Cain is just the not-Romney of the month.
The GOP base loathes Romney. and that includes the teabaggers.
the GOP elite is trying to cram Romney down their throats.
Hilarity ensues.
Romney is like a MORMON John McCain.
like that is going to work.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:13 am
Um, are we really wondering why they love him?
Also, too, he is the Teabillies’ collective black friend, who proves that they are collectively not racist.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:15 am
Jesus Christ another Cain post out of this guy? He’s a black guy who hates Obama providing cover for the Tea Party’s racist tendencies. Thats why he’s popular. Ask yourself if the white CEO of Domino’s would have the same popularity. Not a chance in hell. Recognize this for what it is. You are crazy to think he could hold onto that lead because of the tendencies I’ve already metioned.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:15 am
Headline, FTW.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:16 am
@lamh31: #24
Gotta respect someone who can do that. :-)
October 13th, 2011 at 11:17 am
Srsly awesome headline.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:17 am
@cleek: Kennedy was still a CHRISTIAN.
Evangelicals think mormons are not christians.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:17 am
@schrodinger’s cat:
You are obviously too young to remember a candidate named John F. Kennedy. Or Al Smith, for that matter.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:17 am
@Jim Pharo:
Yeah, if you ignore that he’s a racist homophobe, he seems swell.
@beltane:
I think that’s 2/3rds of it. It’s the “Oh, noes, anyone but Mitt!” vote. Then add a dash of “See, I have black friends, so I’m not racist,” and a touch of “He’s just as clueless as me!” and you have it.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:18 am
@cleek: I don’t see the point of this fixation. After all aren’t all these religions just different flavors of Christianity? What will happen if a Jewish person, or a Hindu, or a Muslim or God forbid an atheist decides to run.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:18 am
@Dave: scary that the bar is so low isn’t ir?
October 13th, 2011 at 11:19 am
If Cain is the Republican nominee, I can’t wait to see how Fox ‘News’ spins how a white person’s vote for Obama is because of liberal white guilt while simultaneously being against Herman Cain because of racism.
Which will, BTW, be the only time Fox ‘News’ gives a shit about racism.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:19 am
@cleek:
Co-signed. Everybody who thinks that Cain can’t win in the South because of his skin color would be well advised to look to the history of integrated college football in that region. Once they get hungry enough for it, winning the championship is more important to the fans than what the running back/quarterback/coach looks like, while they feel free to continue to denigrate the players on the other team for racist reasons.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:19 am
Sit right back and you’ll hear a tale,
A tale of the Herman Cain,
That started from the clown debates,
When candidates vied in vain.
The favorite had the Xantian vote,
The Mittster had the dough,
Many wingnuts took their very best shot,
Despite the straw poll… the big ol’ straw poll.
The weather started getting rough,
So many hopes were tossed,
If not for the crazy that went so deep,
The media would be lost, the media would be lost.
The ship’s aground on the shore of this
Enchanted Ayn Rand isle:
The Lizard King,
The Mittser too,
The millionaires,
and their wives.
The movie stars still haven’t shown,
Here on GOP isle!
October 13th, 2011 at 11:20 am
@Legalize: the GOP base would drop him like a hot potato if Perry came roaring back, or if Palin entered the race.
Cain is the NOT-Romney vote.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:20 am
I don’t see one thing in this statement that would be a negative for a GOP voter.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:20 am
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ: So if Cain wins the nomination, how will the teapartiers get their country back? I mean we all know what that is a code for, right?
October 13th, 2011 at 11:23 am
@Linda Featheringill: hes also running on the same “freed” market con that has spoofed working class Americans for centuries.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:23 am
@Gilles de Rais: This.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:23 am
mittens will skate through the primaries with his poll numbers never going beyond 30%. He will rope in a southern evangelical wingnut (no, it won’t be rubio) to don the mantle of the tundra twit.
mittens Will lose GE by 7 to 10% and Obama will win about 350 to 390 EV. (Remember, Obama received the most votes for a presidential candidate in the entire American history.)
You heard it here first, folks.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:23 am
@Jim Pharo: #25
Cain is likeable. He is not crazy, not stupid, and not mean.
Plus all those other factors.
And I still think it is very good for the country for the right wingers to seriously consider putting a black guy forward as a candidate. It increases our chances of achieving peace internally.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:23 am
The money reports have come out and nobody (but me) mentions them. Cain has approximately zilch. Mitt has money.
Hands up, who thinks money does not matter in politics?
October 13th, 2011 at 11:24 am
Herman Cain is this month’s not-Romney. The real not-Romney hasn’t been identified for certain, but it won’t be Cain, not unless the money party decides they want to lose this go-round.
I’m still waiting for the Santorum explosion. I know it’s coming, the build-up is taking a long time, but once Cain loses his flavor-of-the-month edge, it’ll be time for Santorum to take over the GOP for a month or so.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:25 am
By sticking to one mantra, Herman Cain is the
“The Rent Is Too Damned High!’“9 – 9 – 9” Candidate.Easy to remember, no thinking needed. Even when the 9% sales tax gets added to your own state’s 6% tax, and you wonder “Wha Hoppen?”
Ed
October 13th, 2011 at 11:25 am
@cleek: (#14)
In fact, if you’re a GOP primary voter there is no choice: you cast your ballot for the slightly-creepy, flip/flopping Mormon.
Here is some actual electoral data on current Republican office-holders: there are 2 black congressmen; 0 black senators (there’s not been one since Ed Brooke stepped down in 1979); 0 black governors.
Herman Cain is not going to be the presidential candidate of the 2012 Republican Party. Any suggestion to the contrary is nothing more than an exercise in political metaphysics.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:25 am
@handsmile: GOP can has 2 Indian American Governors, Jindal and Haley does that count?
October 13th, 2011 at 11:27 am
@schrodinger’s cat:
I think having a nominee (and if he wins, a POTUS) spouting the kind of rhetoric about lazy, good-for-nothing people who need to get off their asses and work for a change that we are already hearing from Mr. Cain will be enough to scratch that particular itch. What galls them about Obama isn’t just his skin color, but the class and dignity with which he wears it (ETA: and the obvious pride the AA community takes in this).
October 13th, 2011 at 11:28 am
@schrodinger’s cat:
To paraphrase Malcolm X, a House Negro will fight harder to put out a fire at the Master’s house than the Master will. What better choice to protect the Master’s house?
October 13th, 2011 at 11:28 am
@Samara Morgan: Catholics are not Christians. Ask any evangelical.
Kennedy won for two reasons:
1. Papa Joe Kennedy bought the election.
2. Nixon was less popular than cancer.
Catholics rank slightly higher than Mormons among the Talibangelical crowd, but just barely so. Against any other challenger, Kennedy would have been a historic footnote noted chiefly for having lost by the widest margin ever.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:31 am
Haven’t read the comments yet, but I must say I believe Dougjnymhead was saving this post title for a while.
masterful.
also, OT, apparently there are college Occupy protests going on today
October 13th, 2011 at 11:31 am
Lawrence O’Donnel did a pretty good job last night tearing into Cain’s 999 plan. Aside from the fact that it would increase taxes on the very poor while giving the super rich yet another huge tax cut, he also proposes eliminating Social Security and Medicare. He thinks States, cities, and charities can take care of it all.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:31 am
@Linda Featheringill: he’s not mean? have you read all the things he has said about black people? or his views on muslims?
as for why the jump in popularity…
each time he tells the media that it’s liberal black folks who are the racists, the brainwashed, the lazy, his popularity jumps. every time he gets rightfully attacked for that bs, his popularity jumps. it’s pretty damn obvious
October 13th, 2011 at 11:32 am
@Samara Morgan:
I hate to break it to you, but most evangelical and protestant Christians do not consider Catholicism to be Christian today, let alone 50 years ago.
You are quite ignorant of the history of prejudice against Catholics in America to say such a thing.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:34 am
Maybe Herman Cain’s the black candidate certain white Americans want to point to when they say “See? I’m not racist!” Maybe his secret is that he’s got the magic combination of black skin and a Republican/Tea Party-friendly profile.
But he has his own way of being toxic. He isn’t stupid, he’s a willful ignoramus and a panderer. He knows better than to peddle an economic plan whose numbers don’t add up, than to flaunt a know-nothing attitude to the world affairs that a US president must play a leading role in.
He’s not doing fundraising or campaigning with any seriousness despite his surprising strength in the polls. It’s suspected he’s not in it to win it, that there’s a prawn hiding behind his plate of noodles* — maybe vanity, maybe book sales or a TV talking head gig at Fox. If he does manage to win the Republican nomination somehow, I betcha he’s going to look like he just outmaneuvered himself.
( *udang di sebalik mee in Malay: metaphor for ulterior motive)
October 13th, 2011 at 11:34 am
@amk:
Can Nikki Haley see Mexico from her house?
October 13th, 2011 at 11:34 am
What Shawn in ShowMe said…I agree.
Cain is the biggest Uncle Tom I have seen in a lonnnng time.
His numbers shot up when he denounced blacks..as well as OWS.
Pander Pander Pander…all de time.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:37 am
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ:
Except Herman Cain isn’t on the athletic field, displaying his obvious physical superiority. He’s on the political field, and he’s won exactly zero elections in his career. This isn’t Cam Newton lighting up the scoreboard at Auburn. He’s just a fast-talking businessman running a moderately successful pizza franchise.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:38 am
@schrodinger’s cat:
The US will see a black lesbian president before an atheist. Professing atheism is the absolute kiss of death in our politics.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:38 am
@feebog:
Lawrence was drama-queening the hell out of that last night, but if what he’s saying is true, he was right to.
And presumably also right that Cain is, therefore, toast.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:38 am
I read an article about a republican focus group watching one of the early debates (Iowa perhaps?) a couple months ago. Cain kept saying he had “a plan” to end the economic problems, but did not go into details. Afterwards the focus group members, all republicans, chose Cain as the winner and kept parroting back the “he’s got a plan” line without a clue what it was.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:39 am
@geg6: LOL
ask K-lo and the mad shamans at NRO if catholics are christians..
christian just means a profession in the Christ.
imho of course mormons and catholics are christians.
but catholics are 22%
mormons are 2%
October 13th, 2011 at 11:40 am
No time to read comments, so apologies if repeating another comenter.
But, Cain is tops among the GOP base and primary voters. He is not tops among sane people in the general election, he is among the bottoms head to head against Obama.
GOP primary voters who want the federal government out of their Social Security and Medicare, and who think 20 percent of the federal government budget goes to foreign aid and most of the rest to welfare are not good standards for what sane people think. IMHO.
As for new GOP idea that increasing taxes on the middle class is the way to go, I can only dream that they will beat that drum all the way to defeat next year.
I figure, the GOP is like an apocalyptic cult, the more their forecasts are disproved, the more they double down in their crazy beliefs. Soon their only wedge issues will be very clearly between the top one percent and the rest of the country. And the more leverage they can get pushing on that, the worse it will be for them.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:40 am
@schrodinger’s cat:
i assume it’s just something a candidate’s opponents use to stir up fear, uncertainty and doubt. anything that makes your opponent seem different is attractive to some kinds of campaigns.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:41 am
@handsmile: There was that guy from Illinois who resigned in 2008. What was his name?
October 13th, 2011 at 11:41 am
@Jim Pharo:
and the competition isn’t competent or likeable; Mittens is just soulless and not a decider, Perry viscous and petty, Newt smug and corrupt, Bachman crazy and a vindictive. Sure Cain’s a newb but from a republican POV Cain isn’t GW Bush part II or bringer of the Apocalypse.
Cain’s real problem is he clearly never expected to be taken seriously like this so he doesn’t have the organization he needs to win the primary.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:42 am
OT, but Raj Rajaratnam got 11 years. More than I expected.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:42 am
@amk: agreed.
Distributed Jesusland cant win a general election anymore.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:43 am
@Linda Featheringill: Cheesy one liners does not a president make. And he is a mean mofo, worse than even uct. If an inherently decent man like Obama couldn’t ‘achieve peace internally’, what chance does a punk like herb have in doing that ?
October 13th, 2011 at 11:45 am
Cain’s race might be attractive to people who think Obama won because he’s black (and there are a apparently a lot of conservatives who think this). Cain would obviously nullify that advantage. so, Cain’s race provides opportunity for a little strategery, among those who think in black and white.
/spitballing
October 13th, 2011 at 11:45 am
@geg6: I know the history but I can’t understand the reason why it is so. To an outsider, they seem like different flavors of Christianity. I don’t understand religious people and what motivates them, I find true believers quite scary.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:45 am
@Jim Pharo: Actually, I don’t find Cain to be likeable at all. To me he is self satisfied and arrogant, like some other “self-made men” I have known. My question is, if Romney can’t win the nomination because of his religion and Cain can’t because of his color, then who does that leave the Republicans with?
October 13th, 2011 at 11:46 am
@Gilles de Rais:
Obama is a republican?
October 13th, 2011 at 11:47 am
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ:
Please go and look up how many black head coaches have had jobs in the SEC and then revise your statement. One and he got canned quickly. QB coach is like secretary of transportation to the head coaches President of the united states. You cannot be this niave. There is zero chance the south votes for Cain. Cain’s popularity is a direct rebuke of Romney in general and Perry being terrible the last month. They will eventually coalesce around whatever white guy has the best chance to beat Obama(Romney).
October 13th, 2011 at 11:48 am
@Gilles de Rais: three from Illinois actually. Two elected, one appointed..
October 13th, 2011 at 11:48 am
@Samara Morgan:
I don’t need to ask Catholics if they think they are Christian. I know that answer. And I’m telling you that you are ignorant of anti-Catholic sentiment and the long, long, long history of it in the South and among evangelicals and protestant denominations if you think it doesn’t exist.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:49 am
same here. ugh. But then, I never understood the people who thought Bush II and Palin were “likable” either….
October 13th, 2011 at 11:50 am
@Shawn in ShowMe: I think she can see India from her house. She better keep her long form birth certificate ready. I think her parents were not citizens when she was born or was it Jindals’? So many wingnuts, so little time. Hard to keep them all straight. If her father still wears a turban ( I believe that they are Sikh), wingnuts will be wondering if she is a scary muslin?
October 13th, 2011 at 11:50 am
Or any money.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:51 am
It might almost be worth it for Cain to get the nomination—just to watch all the racists in this country collectively shit their pants when they realize it’s a choice between Black Guy In the White House and Black Guy in the White House.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:52 am
@MeDrewNotYou: I agree.
Look- as crazy as it sounds, Cain could actually win the nomination. How? Well look at 2010. The Tea Partiers took great pleasure in giving a big fat finger to the Party’s choice; see Delaware, Nevada, Alaska. What makes anyone think they can’t or won’t do that again??
It will be Cain or Perry. My theory on Cain is that, if nominated, they will use that, like they tried with the previous RNC Chair, to say that they are not racist…”because we nominated the black guy”! Conveniently when Cain inevitably loses they can blame the black guy.
It’s the perfect foil for a group of juveniles – which is really all the Tea Party is.
Also, too – article at Vanity Fair on Elizabeth Warren.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:52 am
Cain’s the anti-Romney. But the estab GOP also has a real interest in making it a semi-contest. TPers need to be under the impression that they have a voice. And Romney needs competition, to be ready to go in the GE, he needs to spar. Also, nothing is going to diminish their voters already low level of enthusiasm like Romney just walking thru from now to March next year—it’s just ho hum.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:52 am
@Shawn in ShowMe: nikki is not white enough. Do they have any (bachmann-teh crazy) wimmin out there ? Remember, no one had even heard of tundra twit while rich lowries and that smarmy rethug pundtwit whasishisname kristol were having the hots for her in secret and sprung her on an unsuspecting nation.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:52 am
I just don’t see how the hell Cain has a path to the nomination. Are we supposed to believe that the same people who spent the last three years squawking about birth certificates and circulating photoshopped pictures of Obama in tribal garb are suddenly okay with the idea of a black president?
I get that the GOP is infatuated with Cain because he’s their “black friend” and says racist things. But if it starts to look like he’s going to be the nominee, white southerners will quickly cough up a third-party candidate and split the conservative vote. It’ll be Ross Perot all over again.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:52 am
You go girls!:
But I’m sure our punditry will have endless articles about how women are drawn to alpha males and other bullshit.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:52 am
@Woodrowfan: Thirded. Whenever I hear him speak, I think Cain is taking the gullible GOPers for a ride with his folksy way of speaking, he is selling them snake oil and they are buying it by the bucketload.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:53 am
@schrodinger’s cat:
Tribalism, as far as I can tell. I grew up in a Catholic home, with a father who was actually a convert. The Methodists and Lutherans in his family could barely conceal (and often didn’t) their disgust at him, his pope-worshiping wife, and his obscene brood of brats (myself and my five siblings).
And people wonder why I’m an atheist. This is just one of many reasons.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:54 am
@Amanda in the South Bay: It’s also what gave us GWB.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:56 am
@Gin & Tonic:
Hell, professing Deism would eliminate you from consideration. Thomas Jefferson would never get elected today.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:57 am
@geg6: boo-fucking-hoo
doesnt matter a whit.
the electorate could swallow Kennedy’s catholicism.
it wont swallow mitts mormonism.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:58 am
@Zifnab:
But in this case the scoreboard in question is measuring who can say outrageous things smearing Dems/libs and their lazy good-for-nothing moocher voter base, things that make the id of the average GOP base voter light up like the nighttime sky over a AAA baseball park on Fourth of July Free Fireworks night. Cain can do that, and if anything he gets a free pass to say things about the AA community which a white candidate would have to be more circumspect about. IMHO he won’t be able to win the GOP nomination because his fundraising sucks and without a deep pool of money he’s going to get clobbered when the negative ads come out in force (my prediction: he’ll be gone after Super Tuesday as a serious candidate) but that isn’t because of anything having to do with his skin color (which I thought was the subject of this little debate), it is because as both a newbie and a self-funded candidate he doesn’t know squat about political fundraising.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:58 am
[...] Dougerhead writes, I think Republicans like Cain because they feel have some idea of what he is talking about. Anytime anyone says something slightly specific that wingers like, Cain will say “that’s in my 999 plan”. When things get boring during the debates, he just starts yelling about his 999 plan. And it’s a simple, retro, un-focus-grouped name. [...]
October 13th, 2011 at 11:59 am
I think Haley can see the Bahamas from her house. Not as scary…
October 13th, 2011 at 12:00 pm
@ChrisNYC: yeah. i read hotair.
the conservative base loathes Romney.
The GOP elites are going to get the base invested in Romney somehow.
right now they think Romney is being forced on them.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:01 pm
@Amir Khalid:
What a lovely, colorful saying!
And yes, he could parlay this gig into something large and permanent [and well paid, too].
October 13th, 2011 at 12:02 pm
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: At DKos, I write a diary where I came up with the term “pliking”. It was meant to convey the idea that, in politics, you have to choose someone not based on whether you would actually like the person; but that you have to choose them based on what you think they will accomplish and you do it relative to all of the other people you will have to choose from. Right now, I don’t think the Republicans really even plike their candidates.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:02 pm
@Mark S.:
I keep saying that his genuinely amiable conciliatory nature is his best quality. He’s likable, and none of the Republicans are. It’s just that simple. See: Reagan, Ronald.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:03 pm
The thing is, this works just fine in the primaries, the 999 plan thing.
Should he get to the general, Obama will rip him to shreds by asking specific questions about the 999 plan that no one in the GOP field dares to ask, for fear of being painted as some sort of Marxist for daring to suggest that perhaps more tax cuts for vampires isn’t in the interest of most Americans.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:03 pm
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ: and the conservative elites and corporatists are Romney backers.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:03 pm
I’m a fairly well-read individual, and while I got the sarcasm in mistermix’s earlier post right off the bat, I’m missing Doug’s allusion in the title of this post.
Somebody please clue me in? KTHXBAI!
October 13th, 2011 at 12:05 pm
@soonergrunt:
Hurricane by Bob Dylan.
ETA: I bet you were just all like, duh.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:06 pm
Resentment and simplicity. Cain is feeding the Joe the Plumber wing of the party exactly what they want. His dumb-ass 999 plan can fit on one piece of paper and it screws poor people, and “proves” we don’t need to listen to the “ivory tower, coastal elites”.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:07 pm
Walnuts and a couple other idiots are proposing a “Real American Jobs Act.” Are there only going to be jobs for Real Americans?
October 13th, 2011 at 12:07 pm
@Gilles de Rais: (#82)
Evidently you and Woodrowfan (#92) missed the first part of that sentence:
As Woodrowfan correctly noted, however, there have been three black Democratic Senators, all from Illinois, since Mr. Brooke’s departure: Carol Moseley Braun, Obama, and Roland Burris.
More reading, less typing.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:07 pm
@lamh31:
So’s this ball of cat fur on the floor near my desk.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:07 pm
@sixers:
My analogy is a loose one. The larger point is that players on our team tend to be deracinated by the serious fans, at least as long as they win.
This is a very testable proposition, so let’s bookmark this discussion and see what happens. My prediction is that Cain wins at least 2 GOP primaries in the southeastern states.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:10 pm
@cleek:
As I recall, Catholics used to think that was bigoted. Nowadays, bishops think it’s cool to deny communion to Catholic pols who don’t advocate the right policies.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:11 pm
@Linda Featheringill:
Actually, thst’s the modern, young smart-aleck’s version. The traditional version is udang di sebalik batu, prawn hiding behind the rock.
Seriously, I do believe that if Cain wins the nom, it means his plan to profit from a Presidential campaign will have backfired
October 13th, 2011 at 12:12 pm
They like him because they can vote for a black guy and say “See, I’m not a bigot.”.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:12 pm
@Samara Morgan:
And how many Dixiecrat votes do you suppose he got?
You go on about things you know nothing about. You might have a few points to make now and again, but you are an ignorant pedant most of the time. And this is one of those times.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:12 pm
@Mark S.: ohhh. so its another abortion bill is it?
October 13th, 2011 at 12:13 pm
@cruz: You have to stop thinking that his actually being mean because of his bigotry, etc., is the same thing as likability. The important thing is that GOP voters read him as nice.
I suspect Reagan was something of a dick in real life, yet any GOP-er and tons of Dems think he was a really nice guy. It’s the perception that matters.
We need to stop thinking only with our heads and start using our hearts as well to understand the world.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:14 pm
@soonergrunt:
Hey, Sooner. I found the occupy okc fb page last night. There’s nothing on it so far, except for my comment, written in my mother’s name [Face Book doesn’t have to know everything]. Good work, guys.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:14 pm
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ:
I think there are relatively few pure skin color racists these days. Blacks who behave and believe in approved ways are OK.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:15 pm
@amk:
I’m not aware of any Real American female wingnut high-office holders … in the South. Out West, you’ve got
Cruela de Ville, Gov. Jan Brewer but she doesn’t pass the GOP Eye Candy Test.October 13th, 2011 at 12:16 pm
@geg6: @geg6: again.
catholics are 22% of the electorate….and Kennedy was a democrat.
evangelicals are 26% of the electorate and +50% of the republican party vote.
mormons are 2%.
do you know what those those statistics mean? All evangelicals are republicans, all mormons are republican. no independents to be persuaded.
do the math, you simple cow. the candidate has to get 100% of his party vote to win.
the catholics could doooo eeet, the mormons can’t.
im not the math-challenged ‘sline here.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:18 pm
@cleek: Let’s not forget NYS governor Al Smith. He was a Catholic too. For a long time, Protestants (and now fundamentalists) have been anti-Catholic as not being Christian. While the Constitution does not contain a religious test for holding office, there has always been an assumption (among Protestants) that the government should only be composed of Protestants.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:20 pm
@Shawn in ShowMe:
No East Coast female wingnuts in high office?
Nikki Haley, governor of Confederacy of South Carolina?
October 13th, 2011 at 12:21 pm
Pot shots ring out in the debate last night
Enter Mittens Romney from the upper crust
The moderator has a look of disgust
Cries out “My God what a pathetic group in this hall”
Here comes the story of Herman Cain
The man the tea partiers came to name
As someone who might defeat the One
Put him in another debate but he’ll never be
The leader of the free world.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:21 pm
@Jim Pharo:
Politics junkies who know and care a lot about policy have a very hard time doing this, which is one of our weaknesses when it comes to forecasting. It is like the old prescription for getting rid of hiccups, which was to run around the house three times without thinking of the word ‘Wolf’.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:21 pm
@schrodinger’s cat:
I think she can see money and power from her house.
She’s a Republican, so no problems with her birth, wherever it occurred.
See: McCain, John, Jr.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:22 pm
@Shawn in ShowMe: ahhh but Oh Little Jannie does know her place! She followed Russell Pearce down the rabbit hole of SB1070 and she’s decidedly in the pocket of the private prison industry (whocoodanode?) feel free to connect the dots and the kickbacks. She rode the hate train to re-election and now that she’s in office, she’s had to sign bills that gut education and health care in order to keep the Rest Stops open. Lets not forget her Dickensian choices for poor people on the transplant list being kicked off so a stadium could be refurbished from stimulus money! Thankfully though, she was able to pass legislation naming a state firearm, so we can all sleep better at night. So, in other words, she is the Conservative Hot Mama du jour, despite being a bit wrinkly
October 13th, 2011 at 12:23 pm
@Shawn in ShowMe: But don’t the rethugs keep telling us that their wimmin pols are all dishes they can jack off to.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:23 pm
@RP:
Excellent.
Also liked arguingwithsignposts’ Janis Joplin borrowing the other night …
October 13th, 2011 at 12:23 pm
@geg6: for a professed atheist you are incredibly sensitive about evangelicals and christians and catholics.
butt-hurt much?
chu mad bro?
October 13th, 2011 at 12:24 pm
@Samara Morgan:
Many evangelicals don’t think Catholics are christian…
October 13th, 2011 at 12:24 pm
@amk:
A Democrat only has to win the states Kerry won plus one more.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:27 pm
@Shawn in ShowMe: Nikki Haley.
shes a gunga like Jindal, but sheez way hotter than him.
plus, she’s a converted-sikh and not an Exorcist.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:28 pm
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ: I agree.
I could see Perry and Cain both ahead of Romney in some southern states.
The GOP primary voters in southern states are a breed apart.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:30 pm
I don’t see Cain winning the nomination, but I would not be suprised to see him get the VP nod. Cain can call black people lazy all day long and get away with it, a killer feature that I think might cancel out his personal skin tone for most Republicans. And unlike, say, Alan Keyes, he’s not obviously insane and does not talk like Marvin Martian. A Biden/Cain debate certainly would be a must-see match-up.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:30 pm
He’s the current incarnation of Michael Steele for the Republican party.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:30 pm
@PurpleGirl:
I think this idea that “Catholics need not apply for higher office” had less to do with doubt as to whether Catholics were true Christians in a theological sense and more to do with specifically political (as distinct from religious) negative associations imported into the US from England during the 17th and 18th Centuries. Anti-Catholicism played a substantial role in the construction of English nationalism during that period, and Catholics in England were often suspected of being a domestic 5th column secretly in traitorous alliance with the French and Spanish monarchies. Those attitudes crossed the Atlantic and were an element in the lead up to the American Revolution during the 1760s, in particular because of the way the British Crown choose to deal with the large number of Catholics under their rule in Canada after they took it over from the French.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:31 pm
+1 for the post title.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:31 pm
@schrodinger’s cat: You really have to go back to European history and the Reformation. Catholics had the evil Pope to obey and saints and… There were nation changing wars in Europe over what religion would dominate the country. Look at the civil disturbances in England alone, the purges by Queen Kathrine and later Queen Elizabeth over religion or religion-influenced politics.
Think too about the nationalities of Roman Catholics—Irish and Italians. Both groups detested as being poor and ignorant and so destined to destroy American culture.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:32 pm
@Elizabelle:
We already discussed Nikki Haley’s perception problem upthread. In short, she has all the wingnut qualifications on paper but her Sikh heritage excludes her from Real American status.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:32 pm
@Certified Mutant Enemy: immaterial.
Kennedy could be elected because he was a democrat.
ALL the evangelicals there are..are in the GOP, and they wouldn’t vote for him anyways.
Now poor mittens, hes a mormon, and all the mormons there are are in also in the GOP with the evangelicals.
hmmm 26% evangelicals and 27% crazification factor….i wunner if theres a correlation?
October 13th, 2011 at 12:32 pm
@Shawn in ShowMe:
nope.
being a Born Again cancels that out totally.
she is a CONVERT to xianity. the jesus-humpers love that.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:34 pm
@schrodinger’s cat: Well, Jindal became a conservative-crazy Roman Catholic and Haley, I believe, became some flavor of fundamentalist. They may gotten to the state houses but we’ll have to wait to see how much higher up they go.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:35 pm
Republicans love business. And they especially love businessmen. They will swallow down everything a businessman says no matter how batshit, illogical, or impossible because (supposedly) business people are smart and they know how the economy works.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:36 pm
@Cat Lady: Oh, no. {smashes head into desk}
Thanks.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:40 pm
@Shawn in ShowMe:
Or Lincoln…
October 13th, 2011 at 12:40 pm
Lizzy Dole was an NC Senator for a while
October 13th, 2011 at 12:41 pm
@schrodinger’s cat: At least the 1928 election, if not before then.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:42 pm
@Tim F.: haha didnt get it.
i thot it was a three doors down reference
this is a story of a Cain
generation gap?
October 13th, 2011 at 12:42 pm
@Shawn in ShowMe: Exactly. On Day One, one of her opponents will start circulating a picture of her dad in a turban and her campaign is dead in the water. Secret Muslim and all that. (And no, it doesn’t make since in Reality. But the GOP can’t even see Reality from their house.)
October 13th, 2011 at 12:43 pm
@Samara Morgan: Some of the Southern Baptists & other fringe protestants around my neck of the woods will say that Catholics are not ‘real christians’.
Most Catholics I konw are way cooler than the shmucks who say above.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:44 pm
@steve:
They spun on a dime quick enough over tax increases for the middle class. Cain’s part of their tribe – that’s what the “blacks are brainwashed” thing was about.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:45 pm
@PurpleGirl: sheez a Born Again.
Jindal is a Charismatic Catholic (catholic evangelical if you like) who participated in an exorcism.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:46 pm
@Linda Featheringill: Yeah. There’s not much to it. The people who are ‘running’ this thing are absolutely terrified of anybody with any kind of experience being involved, lest they get ‘co-opted.’ Now I have zero experience with protests, but I do understand messaging and logistics to a certain extent, and I know that you’ve got to have people who have the ability and the authority to do certain things or you’ll never get anywhere, no matter what it is that you are trying to accomplish. They are in no danger of being co-opted, because there is NOTHING here to co-opt that would be worth the effort.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:47 pm
@Samara Morgan: The general electorate won’t have a significant problem with Romney’s Mormonism; the GOP primary voters might. If Romney gets through the GOP primary, he’ll have a decent shot of winning the election, whether the turnout by evangelicals is depressed or not, simply because the economy is so horrible.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:52 pm
@Paul in KY: its immaterial.
evengelicals say that, they are all in the GOP.
there is a republican brand of catholic, like K-lo and Jindal, that are evangelical catholics. .. they are called Charismatic Catholics. They speak in tongues and exorcise demons.
kinda like” jews for jesus” and jennifer rubin to the jews.
judeo-christians is the umbrella term.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:53 pm
@moe99: Exactly. Why hasn’t it occurred to them that their choice in that case didn’t work out really well for them?
October 13th, 2011 at 12:54 pm
@schrodinger’s cat: They will probably lose (at least for next 30 years or so). Maybe 100 with the muslim cndidate.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:54 pm
Then there’s the guy who didn’t pay his exorcist and got repossessed.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:56 pm
@jwb: mormonism is bigger problem for democrats than republicans, sry.
here are the maffs.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:57 pm
@Amir Khalid: Cool metaphor. Glad you post here, Amir.
October 13th, 2011 at 12:58 pm
@MeDrewNotYou: You’re probably right, but I still find it both funny and sad tat such people can’t distinguish a Sikh man’s turban from a Muslim’s. A Muslim turban is something of a status symbol, usually worn by clerics and men of importance. A Sikh turban is obligatory for all devout men, and looks very different from any Muslim style of turban.
October 13th, 2011 at 1:03 pm
All these comments and I don’t see the things that I think Republican voters like about Cain. (Apologies if I missed someone because whoa – lots of comments).
Cain validates their ideas about the world. In every possible way. He says the right things – like being a black guy who says that black people have been brainwashed into voting for Democrats, or his 9-9-9 plan which may not make sense as actual policy but sounds like exactly the kind of “common sense” wisdom that right-wingers like to throw around (swear to Grod hand to heard my right-wing dad had a plan something like that back when Bush the Elder was president).
But beyond that – Cain also validates their idea that the system works. Cain’s a black guy whose parents were working class and he worked his way through college and became CEO of a major company. That’s pretty much what all right-wingers think the American Dream is these days. Now the details of his biography don’t validate their worldview (he had a government job while working his way through college, for example), but it doesn’t matter. The Horatio Alger story works.
And – and this is extremely important right now – he has never held a government office in his life. Nothing from his past can disappoint them – all of his past actions were in the corporate sector and he’s never had to compromise to get a law passed or to scratch the back of a major campaign contributor. He’s pure – unsullied by the evils of big government – and so they can project all of their hopes and dreams onto him.
You can’t do that with Romney or Perry or even Bachmann. But you can with Cain. And he’s got a decent TV personality – not the crazy eyes like Bachmann or the obvious fakeness of Romney or the obvious “oh my Grod why is George W Bush on my TV again” like Perry. He’s got a Fox News talk show vibe about him – like he should be hosting a show from behind a desk – and for the base, that’s a plus.
(Perry has other major problems – not the least of which is that he wrote a book and then immediately flip-flopped on what he wrote when called on it. I don’t think people realize just how much the right-wing has invested in hating Mitt Romney for his flip-flopping, and how that really ends up hurting Perry far more than his debate performances really have).
October 13th, 2011 at 1:05 pm
I’m reading Bruce Bartlett’s analysis of Cain’s tax plan, and it’s a lot crazier than I thought. I knew that 999 was temporary and was going to be replaced by a national sales tax, but apparently there is a Phase 2 in between those two steps. (BTW, is Cain planning on becoming president for life, cause what the hell is the timeline on all of this?)
Phase 2 will just do some minor things like eliminate the payroll tax. But I’m fascinated by how the corporate tax would be changed:
Well, there’s a real simple solution: just cut workers’ wages!
October 13th, 2011 at 1:06 pm
@Certified Mutant Enemy:
They consider Catholics to be “idol worshippers” also
October 13th, 2011 at 1:07 pm
@Samara Morgan:
Basically. I guess the fact that they are allowed to stay in the church can be chalked up to the same blind spot that allows pedophiles to remain priests. If the Catholic Church believed its rhetoric it would excommunicate any Catholic who refused to turn in their R-card. They are open advocates of evil.
October 13th, 2011 at 1:07 pm
@NonyNony:
this.
exactly. he’s giving white guys a way to rationalize their own deep-seated issues with race. “yeah, now i get it. that’s why i’m uncomfortable around black people.”
October 13th, 2011 at 1:12 pm
@Gin & Tonic:
That is definitely a reason I would never live in America.
We are on our second atheist Prime Minister currently here in Australia.
October 13th, 2011 at 1:21 pm
@eemom:
According to many people who post things on the internet, yes.
October 13th, 2011 at 1:24 pm
@beltane:
I agree—but this is very damaging to Romney, even if he is the eventual winner.
October 13th, 2011 at 1:39 pm
Also, too, you know how the TPers love to do things that piss off liberals? I think the support for Cain is just thumbing their noses at liberals because they think it pisses us off that a black man is getting conservative Republican support. No way would they ever actually vote for him.
October 13th, 2011 at 1:49 pm
@Samara Morgan:
Agree (that they think that)
Mormons do not recite the apostle’s creed that is the cornerstone of Christian faith (for those who follow it strictly). There are distinct differences, though it is clearly related to Christianity, as is Judaism and to a lesser extent, Islam…
October 13th, 2011 at 1:50 pm
@Gin & Tonic: I don’t know if that’s enough to deter. He looks like he could certainly still have a few years left when he gets out & if he has been able to squirrel millions away, 11 years to see your investment come in is not really that long, IMO.
I would have wanted a 20 year (or longer) sentence.
October 13th, 2011 at 1:55 pm
@WereBear: Hahahahah! Brilliant! I award you 1 internets.
October 13th, 2011 at 1:58 pm
@Linda Featheringill:
Maybe…
I’m reasoning by analogy here, and going back about fifty years. Say Obama is to the black community what Kennedy was to Catholics back then – the symbol of prejudice overcome and of the fact that hey, we’re all Americans! Let’s forget old hatreds and come together in bipartisan cross-cultural patriotism! Hence the whole “post-racial candidacy,” etc, etc.
In that case, I’d say Herman Cain is the black version of these Catholics who by the end of the 1960s adopted the principle of I’ve Got Mine (they were more or less accepted as Real Americans, at last), Fuck You! (but they’d be damned if all these other, “colored” people were going to be let into the country club!) – also known as kicking the ladder away after climbing up. In other words, the guys who went over for Nixon. That’s what comes to mind whenever I see Herman Cain extolling the way black people like him can succeed, while spewing bile against Muslims and gays and promising that they’d never get anywhere near where he is if he has anything to do with it!
Fortunately, the number of black people who agree with him is much smaller than the number of Catholics who were ready to switch parties in the 1960s, because let’s face it, the GOP is nowhere near over the fact that black people are black. But the point is, looking at people like Cain doesn’t inspire me to think “more chances of achieving peace internally” like it does you… it just reminds me that the country club occasionally moves the goalposts and allows new members, but that just means there’ll be new targets to marginalize and hate on.
October 13th, 2011 at 1:59 pm
@schrodinger’s cat: I think both of them claim to have converted to christianity. That’s a big reason why the wingnuts voted for them (combined with the ‘R’).
October 13th, 2011 at 2:15 pm
@Gilles de Rais:
That, and there really was a lot more tolerance for Catholics by the 1960s. Maybe not among Talibangelicals, but they’re not the only voters or even the only Protestants out there. When Al Smith ran in the 1920s, he lost in a landslide and there were burning crosses set up as his campaign train passed by even in the North. Things changed in thirty years, Papa Joe buying the election doesn’t explain everything and neither does Nixon’s unpopularity.
October 13th, 2011 at 2:18 pm
@Amir Khalid: you should stick to turban taxonomy because you sukk on tafsir.
October 13th, 2011 at 2:20 pm
@soonergrunt: I think it is a takeoff on the opening song from ‘The Beverley Hillbillys’
Edit: I See I was wrong, but it could have been that!
October 13th, 2011 at 2:20 pm
@Chris: but they’re not the only voters or even the only Protestants out there
evangelicals< republicans < christians < americans.
subset[evangelical] ^ (intersection) subset[democrat] == null set
October 13th, 2011 at 2:23 pm
@gnomedad:
More than you might think. But they have to cope with the fact that they live in a post-civil rights America too, and that their options just aren’t what they used to be.
I think there’s plenty of Republicans who would vote for a black guy for President if he were like Cain (even if he wasn’t their first choice), but would still be revolted at the idea of Herman Cain marrying their daughter, sitting in their church or moving in next door.
October 13th, 2011 at 2:26 pm
@PurpleGirl: I listened to an old campaign speech of Gov. Smith’s. I liked what he said, but boy oh boy he sounded like the most stereotypical New Yawker Irish Drunkard. Really had an accent. I think a cartoon character or two had a voice that was based on his.
October 13th, 2011 at 2:30 pm
@Samara Morgan: I would say that first they are going to have to demonstrate that (speaking in tongues, casting out a demon, etc.) for the people I was talking about & then they are going to think:
“Why won’t you convert to a Godly religion, like Southern Baptist”
October 13th, 2011 at 2:35 pm
@Samara Morgan:
And you know just how highly I value your advice, my dear.
October 13th, 2011 at 2:36 pm
@Amir Khalid:
It’s also why profiling in airports is a ridiculous idea: the people racist enough to support that are the same people too stupid/ignorant to tell a Sikh from a Muslim from a Copt. So even if you admitted that profiling all Muslims was a worthwhile thing (it’s not, just FTR), you’d just end up spending hours patting down Sikhs and Hindus and Maronites while any Muslim without a beard and a light enough skin color would pass through scot-free.
October 13th, 2011 at 2:37 pm
@Amir Khalid: It means (to these assholes) that the person is definitely not Christian. Sikh/Muslim/Hindu/Odinite, doesn’t really matter in the big picture (to them).
October 13th, 2011 at 2:39 pm
@chopper:
There’s nothing he said that white people haven’t been saying for decades, but it’s coming from a black guy, so it’s the “AHA!” validation at long last.
Of course they love him.
October 13th, 2011 at 2:41 pm
@jwb:
This, exactly.
Please do not make the mistake of believing this “Romney can’t get elected due to Mormonism” nonsense.
It’s just not true. It makes it more difficult for him in the primaries, yes. But not impossible, not at all. Talibangicals and conservative Catholics vote for Mormon Republican candidates for office in AZ all the time.
They will likely do the same in (enough of) the Republican primaries, and Mittens (someone really needs to come up with a decent pejorative moniker for the motherfucker) will, as it appears right now, probably be the Republican nominee. Mostly by default, sure. Who is the alternative (I had my hopes on Perry, but…)? Cain? No fucking way.
I believe the Republican primary electorate – ultra-rightwing as it is – will hold their collective noses and vote for the most electable-against-Obama fascist choice they’re given.
And that’s Romney, hands-down.
His religion wouldn’t count for squat in the general (except that he has one, vaguely “Christianish”, like whatever Reagan pretended to be).
October 13th, 2011 at 3:51 pm
@beltane:
If he converts to evangelical Christianity, I can imagine that would be the ultimate flip flopping. He’d lose Utah though.
October 13th, 2011 at 4:04 pm
The discussion of the place of Catholics in our polity leaves out the ancient, ultra-conservative Catholics of the Pat-Buchanan-opus-dei ilk. I’ve no doubt that Buchanan, in his Presidential run(s?), attracted a lot of conservative Christian, non-Catholic voters, despite his Catholicism. He mouths all the right stuff and hates all the right people and is against abortion. That’s all it takes, really. (If Mitt hadn’t ever been pro-abortion, he’d be a shoo-in.)
October 13th, 2011 at 4:44 pm
@Amir Khalid: and i yours, mufassir maftoon.
:)
October 13th, 2011 at 5:07 pm
@DFH no.6:
did you miss the Pew poll i cited?
and
October 13th, 2011 at 5:13 pm
lissen juicers.
if blacks and hispanics vote for Obama in the same percentages as in 2008, the GOP candidate will need a gobsmacking 65% or more of the white vote.
McCain only had 63%, and he was a war hero and not-a-mormon.
people that are unlikely to vote for Mitt based on pew.
(31% x 68% of democrats) + (23% x 68% of independents) + (20% x 68% of republicans) ~= 20% of all democrats + 13.5% of all republicans + 15% of all independents.
the dems prolly wont vote for mitt anyways, but the GOP needs ALL the republican votes and AT LEAST half the independent votes to win the general.
mitt starts out in the hole by almost 20% of the combined ind/repub votes he needs to win.
i think mitt cant win, no matter how lousy the economy is.
so why are the GOP elites pushing him?
October 13th, 2011 at 5:30 pm
oops, i got my maffs backwards….25%, not 68%...the 68% dont care.
should be
(31% x 25% of democrats) + (23% x 25% of independents) + (20% x 25% of republicans) ~= 8% of all democrats + 6% of all republicans + 5% of all independents.
so can Romney win the general if ~11% of combined repubs and inds wont vote for a mormon?
i just dont think its possible, given that he needs +65% of the white vote, and that 11% are ALL white voters.
October 13th, 2011 at 5:42 pm
lets consider the white vote.
roughly a third of white voters vote dem, carter to obama.
that only leaves 67% of white voters to vote GOP in 2012.
subtract anything over 2% (like the 11% of repubs and inds that wont vote mormon) and the GOP cant get there.
consider the evangelical vote. white evangelicals make up 50% of the GOP.
now let us say 34% of GOP evangelicals will not vote for a mormon.
that is 17% of their own base. and that 17% is all white vote.
so how does mitt get to 65% of the white vote?
October 13th, 2011 at 5:46 pm
now O got 43% of the white vote in 2008.
the janehamshers and freddie-de-bores might not vote for him in 2012.
But all he NEEDS is 35% of the white vote.
October 13th, 2011 at 5:53 pm
@matoko-Atreides:
Yeah, I’m aware of such polls, and I’m well aware of the religious outlook Protestants have toward Mormons (despised non-Christian cult – got it).
I just think your conclusion (“Romney can’t get elected due to Mormonism”) is wrong.
It is a problem and a significant obstacle for Romney in the primaries, no doubt.
But it’s not a deal-breaker, any more than the obstacle Romney has with many in his party (an overlapping set with the Talibangicals) of being No True Republican (you know, due to his many non-Republican earlier stances and policies he’s now flip-flopping like mad about).
Very much like McCain before him (McCain, of course, was always much more conservative than Romney, but a little move toward sensible immigration policies was all it took to make many conservatives unhappy and suspicious of McCain).
In “ordinary” circumstances Romney wouldn’t have a chance, in either the primaries or the general. The Mormon deal would just be one of many obstacles he couldn’t get past.
2012 is pretty fucking far from “ordinary”, though.
The economy is extra-shitty, and the current occupant of the White House is a Democrat, and he’s near. Quite exrtraordinary.
Romney can (and I believe he will) be the default choice of the fascists in their primaries – despite the Mormonism, and despite his lack of Right-thinking bona fides – and he would then be Obama’s most formidable opponent in the general due to the extra-shitty economy and because Mittens will be presented as not-crazy (which has the benefit, for him, of being true).
In the general, his Mormon “problem” would be nil. The fascists would do their monolithic thing and crawl on broken glass if they had to for Romney to defeat the hated Kenyan Muslim Usurper
Romney as the nominee would make Obama’s re-election an uphill battle. Any of the other clowns available much less so.
We better take him seriously. He’s going to be the Republican candidate.
October 13th, 2011 at 6:56 pm
@DFH no.6: 65% dude. :)
that is not my conclusion.
Romney’s mormonism is the Thing the Conservatives Can’t Talk About.
And it is contributory.
I read hotair often and wistfully. AllahP and i were drunken haiku buddies in the Olden Times of teh interwebs. he is a bright guy, and i cant figger him out anymore.
EDK, Balko, Gillespie, Bailey etc, and of course Douthat, are of middling intelligence….
but i digress.
the hotair ppl despise Romney.
for a lot of reasons….flip-flopper, corporatist, Romneycare…the mormon thing is what they DON’T talk about.
so all those things count.
the GOP can only afford 2 percentage points.
i think mormonism plus Romneys other baggage is going to reduce the white vote to < 65% percent….its additive. some white voters will not vote for romney because hes a mormon—some will not vote for him because hes a flipflopper—some will not vote for him because of Romneycare.
Now those humans wont vote for Obama—they will stay home or throw their votes away.
critical mass.
that is what I think.
you can think what you like.
October 13th, 2011 at 9:09 pm
@DFH no.6:
copacetic
October 13th, 2011 at 9:36 pm
and again…the conservative elites know all this.
is Romney just a sacrifice play?
October 13th, 2011 at 9:40 pm
@Samara Morgan:
To be honest, I wonder if the entire freaking 2012 election isn’t a sacrifice play. Whoever beats Obama in 2012, if they beat Obama, is going to be inheriting a shitstorm of epic proportions and a public that demands IMMEDIATE fixes… and the only fixes they have don’t work (and at least some of the elites have to know that, IMO).
I think at least some of them are praying for a defeat in 2012 and a return to normalcy over the next four years – in other words a replay of the 1990s, when Republicans left us a huge mess, Democrats cleaned it up, and Republicans moved back in.
October 13th, 2011 at 11:59 pm
@Chris: partly that, and partly clearing the decks of Romney so a fresh face like Rubio can have a clean shot.
at least half the conservative base hates him. the otherhalf is lukewarm.
Mormonism is a handicap. Lets say just just half of the 17% of the white (inds +repubs) vote that says they wont vote mormon stays home or writes in Palin. That is 8.5% of the white vote.
The GOP needs 65% of the white vote. 100% of the white vote – 8.5% – 33% = 58.5%.
McCain got 55% of the white vote to Obamas 43% in 2008, and Obama won by
365 to 173 in the EC and by roughly 10 million popular votes.
Obma only NEEDS 270 EC votes. He can expense 95 EC votes to the economy and still win.
Obama only needs 37% of the white vote to shut the GOP out.
but that cannot happen NAOW because of the demographic timer.
Indeed.
O has declined to the 33% residual core of the white vote.
Thats US! pat your bigself on the back.
But the 17% of the white vote that is UNLIKELY to vote for a mormon, or the 8.5% that is VERY PROBABLE not to vote mormon, comes right off the top of the white vote.
that is why i think Romney cant win the general in 2012.
And in 2016 the percent white vote in the electorate will have declined further.
the white vote was 90% in the 70’s, and declined to 72% in 2008.
Once the white vote declines past 65% the GOP will never win another general election.
dy/dx
October 14th, 2011 at 5:08 am
@Chris: so…given that Rove and the corporatists can do basic math, what is the reason the conservative elites are supporting Romney?
He cannot win IMHO.
October 14th, 2011 at 5:13 am
@Samara Morgan: Easy,
a) he is one of them,
b) they have no-one else to support.
Who else has a chance against Obama? Quoting from my own comments on a thread above: Paul is 76 (1935, a year older than McCain), Cain is 66 years old (1945), Mittens is 64 (1947), Perry is 61 (1950). Obama is at least 10 years younger than any possible GOP nominee.
October 14th, 2011 at 5:24 am
@Xenos:
that might be true.
not to the 17%. but they could sukk it up and vote for him, like conservatives that hated McCain voted for him plus Replacement Dimbo.
im saying the probability of a Romney is low, given the demographic landscape…
but like Chris said, mebbe they are lettin mitt have his shot so he wont clutter up 2016.
October 14th, 2011 at 5:40 am
One more thing juicers.
On observation, i think the only reason any conservative would vote for mitt is that they think he can beat Obama.
So the elites will not talk about the white vote argument.
But IFF some blogs did start discussing it, i bet mitt’s polling numbers would drop.
October 14th, 2011 at 10:11 am
on parle du diable
Karl @ Patterico and HotAir.
Mitt Romney: the Devil you Know
LOL!
October 14th, 2011 at 10:18 am
let me refine my maffs a bit.
NO CHANCE, DFH#6.
do you copy?
so that is 63% of the 11% percent that said they would be less likely. That is roughly 7% of the white vote.
Traditionally a third of the white vote goes to dems, carter to obama.
so 33% plus 7% is 40%. Romney loses even if he gets the same percentage of the white vote as Reagan.
October 14th, 2011 at 10:38 am
all data used in the equations from this 2011 Pew poll.
October 14th, 2011 at 11:10 am
i think i will ax Nate to check my maffs.
l8rz
October 14th, 2011 at 11:39 am