schrodinger's cat - August 29, 2011 | 9:12 pm · Link

Are you saying that Rick Perry will win the general election or just the Republican nomination?

srv - August 29, 2011 | 9:14 pm · Link

It’s hard to believe the full press of the Rovians will not mortally wound Perry. It’s like a campaign of zombies, the one that makes it to the finish line will probably have lost a lot of limbs.

Jenny - August 29, 2011 | 9:15 pm · Link

John Ellis (who wrote the above) is a winger idiot, but that’s a feature when it comes to understanding the conservative zeitgeist.

Ellis is Shrub’s first cousin and nephew of George HW Bush.

SiubhanDuinne - August 29, 2011 | 9:17 pm · Link

Stevie Wonder! Great choice, DougJ.

(I happen to love the Mel Tormé version, but YMMV, and you know what? That’s okay.)

schrodinger's cat - August 29, 2011 | 9:18 pm · Link

@Big Baby DougJ: I actually think Romney would be a more formidable opponent in the general election.
ETA: Why are you a big baby now, DougJ?

efgoldman - August 29, 2011 | 9:19 pm · Link

@ Big Baby DougJ

I try to be rational

Well, there’s your first mistake.
This is the GOBP we’re talking about.

Jenny - August 29, 2011 | 9:22 pm · Link

I don’t know why this is surprising.

A creepy liberal Republican from “Taxechuettes” who belongs to a cult was never cut out to win a hard right wing, fundie laden primary.

The only thing that was barely holding him up was the insolvency of his opponents’ war chests and the love of Village. Now with that gone, he’s a goner.

SiubhanDuinne - August 29, 2011 | 9:23 pm · Link

When you believe in things that you don’t understand
You’re gonna suffer.
Superstition ain’t the way

parsimon - August 29, 2011 | 9:25 pm · Link

This from the linked article:

It is likely that, after Labor Day, a sustained negative campaign against Perry will be launched.

I think is true, and I’ve been waiting for it. No negative campaign from the Democratic party will gain much traction—it’s got to come from the right.

I’m wondering whether there’s any power player with a longish memory in the Republican establishment: letting the evangelical base shape your direction was not a good idea back when the Republican Party first courted and took advantage of it, and it’s not a good idea now.

Big Baby DougJ - August 29, 2011 | 9:26 pm · Link

@srv:

I love that one.

SiubhanDuinne - August 29, 2011 | 9:27 pm · Link

@Dan:

Between your grok and my Mel Tormé, I am totally in the ‘60s tonight. Groovy.

Keith - August 29, 2011 | 9:27 pm · Link

I don’t have much faith in the debating skills of politicians who refuse to debate. Not to mention what debating skills he may have were honed in environments where he can get away with some quips about breakin’ necks/cashin’ checks while skipping over anything substantive. I don’t think Palin could have even pulled that off on the national stage more than once.

Jenny - August 29, 2011 | 9:29 pm · Link

I guess the only thing that can stop Elmer Gantry from winning the nomination is if Romney can succeed with a gay whisper campaign via push polling, internet boards, innuendo, and chain letters.

Redshift - August 29, 2011 | 9:31 pm · Link

@Big Baby DougJ:

See, I don’t Palin hurt that much either. Maybe a point or two.

I agree. As an acolyte of Nate Silver at the time, McCain’s drop was the fading of his post-convention bounce in a fairly typical fashion, not a direct result of selecting Palin. I do think Palin had an effect on McCain’s reputation with everyone but the Beltway media.

Poopyman - August 29, 2011 | 9:31 pm · Link

@Big Baby DougJ: “Dirt Dog DougJ” has a better meter.

And if I were a betting man I’d say Perry is gonna flame out. Too long until the nomination is locked up,and he’s already going nova.

Cacti - August 29, 2011 | 9:33 pm · Link

@Jenny:

I guess the only thing that can stop Elmer Gantry from winning the nomination is if Romeny can succeed with a gay whisper campaign via push polling, internet boards, chain letters.

Romney’s problem if he decides to go negative is that his religion is a huge albatross.

If he tries to whisper about teh ghey, expect team Perry to start one about “secret Mormon temple ceremonies”.

Redshift - August 29, 2011 | 9:36 pm · Link

@Guster: Well, there are tradeoffs. Perry is more insane than Romney, which may turn off so-called independents, but supposedly he’s a much better campaigner. And there’s the tradeoff that Perry may be easier to beat, but he’d be much worse if he did actually win (not that Romney would be good to have in office, just that Perry would be worse.)

Cacti - August 29, 2011 | 9:41 pm · Link

@Redshift:

Well, there are tradeoffs. Perry is more insane than Romney, which may turn off so-called independents, but supposedly he’s a much better campaigner.

Well, when you think about it, Mittster has a grand total of one successful political campaign in his career.

The Dangerman - August 29, 2011 | 9:42 pm · Link

As I posted last evening, it’s either Perry or Palin for the R nomination; neither is a viable General candidate and either will lose to Obama. It won’t be close and probably will be called about the same time as when it was called over McCain.

You can point to Shrub all ya want as a counterpoint to viability, but he ran as a “compassionate conservative” and still barely won (I’ll leave the 2000 fun alone); Perry has rather explicitly said “fuck dat compassionate shit” and Palin is Palin.

Tom Q - August 29, 2011 | 9:43 pm · Link

I also don’t get why it’s a surprise that a Teahadist might be the nominee. Given how great a percentage of the party’s elected officials fall into that category, the wonder is that the ‘08 candidate wasn’t.

If I were of the “Obama is a sure loser” school that’s popular among certain posters here, Perry’s candidacy would worry me. But since I instead think Barack is a very strong, almost prohibitive favorite for re-election, I think Perry is the best hope of turning it instead a wipeout that brings a solid Dem Congress in at the same time.

Jenny - August 29, 2011 | 9:45 pm · Link

@Cacti: Mittens doesn’t have much of a choice. It’s like the great Gore Vidal movie “The Best Man”, where the Henry Fonda character has only two choices, play the gay card or lose.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....ge#t=4087s

Incoherent Dennis SGMM - August 29, 2011 | 9:46 pm · Link

Shit, Mittens will beat Perry with Rove’s help? Don’t make me laugh. For the current Republican electorate Mittens has more baggage than a 747 on a direct flight to Australia. Rove is an opportunist. As soon as Mittens bows out he and Perry will be BFFs.

General Stuck - August 29, 2011 | 9:47 pm · Link

Let’s face it. It takes an outsized ego to compete on the national stage for POTUS, regardless of any thing else. Obama has that trait, and so do the rest that won the prize, and many that didn’t win in the end.

I see no sign that Perry doesn’t possess this characteristic, be he crazy as a shithouse rat.

I do think he is going to have some powerful enemies in the wingnut tent, and none more so than the Bush crew, and it will be interesting to see if and how far they will go to deny Perry the GOP nomination. People like Karl Rove, who are sociopaths, but not stupid to realize out of the cloistered world of the GOP primary voting base, there is a potential this jackasse could do some real harm to the broader GOP brand, well beyond the damage done by GWB. And if you are stuck on Obama’s mediocre poll results right now, take the time to dig into the internals of about any of these polls, and you will find the GOP brand remains pretty much in the shitter.

I mean, how can you pivot to the required center, with recent loose talk of secession and doing away with SS and medicare, and likely a bunch more crazy shit we don’t yet know about. But as far as managing the national stage, Perry is a cinch for that hurdle, imo. The problem will be not grooving into the glidepath of a Barry Goldwater, that opened his arms and begged Johnson to define him as a dangerous nutbag. We could see a modern redux of that wince worthy run in 1964

efgoldman - August 29, 2011 | 9:52 pm · Link

@trollhattan:

...who the hell in the Republican field does Rove support?

Excellent question, and one I hadn’t considered when I posted. (I’m a reactive, not pro-active commenter).
The thing is, I don’t think Turd Blossom can control any of them. But I really don’t see him (and his ca$h) sitting it out.

The Dangerman - August 29, 2011 | 9:53 pm · Link

@General Stuck:

But as far as managing the national stage, Perry is a cinch for that hurdle, imo.

One thing I’ve read someplace is Perry is supposed to suck shit as a debater; now, given how bad everyone was at the last debate in Ames, I can’t believe he could be that much worse and still be comatose. But, if he IS that bad, that could be the hurdle too high…

Upper West - August 29, 2011 | 9:59 pm · Link

@Jenny: John Ellis was also the “Fox News Commentator” who “called” the 2000 election for Bush before all of the FL votes were counted, thereby setting the narrative that Bush was the presumptive winner.

As for Perry, after the results of NY-26, how can anyone possibly win who openly advocates repeal of SS and Medicare? Apparently, Romney is going to go after Perry for this. Gornisht helfen, I say.

General Stuck - August 29, 2011 | 10:04 pm · Link

@The Dangerman:

I don’t think it’s a cinch for him to get the nomination. I do think it is his to lose, by any number of shortcomings or implosion grade skeletons in his closet, that we don’t know about.

I guess being a shitty debater could be one of those things, if he wasn’t debating a line of clowns. As it is, He will just need to grunt a few times and flash his hairy knuckles, to woo his audience of fellow gold plated wingnut primary carnivores voters

fasteddie9318 - August 29, 2011 | 10:12 pm · Link

It’s interesting, isn’t it, that it took about 2 days of real campaigning for Perry to turn the dynamic of the Republican primary race, at least in terms of the mainstream power players in the party, from “can’t we find somebody better than Mitt Romney?” to “HOLY SHIT CAN SOMEBODY PLEASE SAVE US FROM RICK PERRY?” I think this is a long way from over and it would be a mistake to count out Romney, as the only currently viable notPerry candidate in the field.

Marginalized for stating documented facts - August 29, 2011 | 10:22 pm · Link

@General Stuck:

People like Karl Rove, who are sociopaths, but not stupid to realize out of the cloistered world of the GOP primary voting base, there is a potential this jackasse could do some real harm to the broader GOP brand…

If this were true, they wouldn’t have stuck their hands up Dubya’s puppet skirt.

The people who run the GOP clearly don’t give a damn how badly the lunatics they thrust into power hurt the GOP brand or hurt America. Joe McCarthy, Nixon, Reagan, Dubya…

Puh-lease.

2016? Caligula for President. The ultimate GOP candidate.

patrick II - August 29, 2011 | 10:29 pm · Link

@srv:
What a joy that was. Thank you for the link.

Brachiator - August 29, 2011 | 10:42 pm · Link

The real test, then, will be the five upcoming debates. If Perry does well enough in those to convince the base that he can command the national stage, then the caucus and primary season won’t be long. It’ll be over before you know it.

Wake me when there are some actual primary votes.

When did Rudy 911 get his walking papers in 2008? And Mittens dropped out in February, after burning through $105 million of his own money, more or less.

I have always believed that political and sports pundits should always have their past predictions prominently displayed. Anyone who was wildly off should be banned from all media for two years. If nothing else, this might result in a little less meaningless speculation.

parsimon - August 29, 2011 | 10:54 pm · Link

@Jim, Foolish Literalist:

I wonder if Rove doesn’t figure he and the party don’t have more strength as an obstructionist force in the Congress

That’s where I’d put my money, were I a Republican.

Ron Beasley - August 29, 2011 | 11:19 pm · Link

By all rights Perry should implode before the first primary – think Fred Thompson. But there are plots within plots. I think there are Republican power brokers who want to take the party back from the Teahardists and the best way to do that is a Tea Party nominee who does a Goldwater and the most of the freshman Tea Party congress critters getting beat.

Ron Beasley - August 29, 2011 | 11:51 pm · Link

@dollared: I see another possibility – Perry is in the race to make Romney look good.

Odie Hugh Manatee - August 30, 2011 | 12:22 am · Link

@Marginalized for stating documented facts: “2016? Caligula for President. The ultimate GOP candidate.”

I think Vlad the Impaler would be a better choice, he was far more humane and compassionate than the Republican party of today.

priscianusjr - August 30, 2011 | 10:49 am · Link

@Tom Q:

If I were of the “Obama is a sure loser” school that’s popular among certain posters here, Perry’s candidacy would worry me. But since I instead think Barack is a very strong, almost prohibitive favorite for re-election, I think Perry is the best hope of turning it instead a wipeout that brings a solid Dem Congress in at the same time.

I think you’ve put your finger on what is probably the most serious problem facing the Dems, or at least us Democratic blog readers. For the first time I’m starting to really understand what FDR meant by “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself”. Come on folks, get a grip. The Repugnants will always be aggressive, will always be on the offensive, they will never stop. The question is whether what they are selling actually attracts that many people. I think it turns off a lot more folks than it attracts. I think it would be great if Perry is the nominee. It won’t just be Obama vs Bush all over again. Perry is far worse than Bush.

We know Perry has the 25-percenters, or at least that portion of them willing to abandon Palin or Bachmann. We know that Rove, who plays a central role in the GOP money machine, hates Perry. I assume his concern is long term, over control of the GOP. For that reason, I can almost believe that Rove would prefer Obama to Perry. There is a lot of internal dissension in the Repugnant party, and I think it can only increase.