If Boehner’s bill dies in utero or Harry Reid kills it, does that mean he has to forge a compromise with Democrats? Not really. He can sit on his ass and sulk. He can let default happen and then pass a bunch of sense-of-the-House bills that call Obama a worthless bloody git who caused the whole thing by himself without any help from anyone. FOX News will crown him for it.
If Boehner compromises then the only thanks he gets will come from sensible commenters like Krugman or Joe Klein (bad) or Democrats (worse). For all the gratitude that he can expect from his own foaming base, Boehner might as well retire on the spot to spend more time with his five iron.
IMO default and chaos is the best chance for the GOP. If they deal then they can look forward to explaining the Ryan budget to their constituents, plus this. The special election in New York’s 26th gave us a handy preview of how much fun that will be. Chaos at least offers hope. With the economy collapsed and the country in pieces, there is always some question about who will end up with the largest piece.
dr. bloor
I doubt chaos ensues. It would be more of a slow bleed in which the creditors get paid off in progressively smaller chunks, and in which the credit rating decays at a pace that will allow everyone to keep an eye on how they got there. Besides, the Teahadis won’t let anyone forget for a minute what a great service they’re doing to the Republic.
Not that Obama will allow any of that to happen, anyways.
Yevgraf
If the country collapses, I vote hitting the Mad Max road with a list of printed out addresses to call upon…
Poopyman
No more Boehner. He’s yesterday’s trash.
More Max pics, please! (And not the Mad variety, per Yevgraf.)
Stefan
With the economy collapsed and the country in pieces, there is always some question about who will end up with the largest piece.
So…enjoy your weekend, everybody!
Chris T.
It’s good for (most of) them electorally. It’s (very) bad for (most of) them financially.
I find it hard to predict what each member will do because of these conflicting motivations. Someone’s earlier example, of an acrimonious divorce in which the vengeful husband (the Republican) is willing to burn all his money just so the wife (the Democrat) won’t get any of it, applies here.
Davis X. Machina
Howard Johnson: Y’know, Nietzsche says: “Out of chaos comes order.”
kd bart
This is good news for John McCain, right?
Brachiator
Yeah, something like this really worked well for Newt Gingrich back in the day. The GOP is suicidal. They are not just fucking with the government, they are fucking with the entire national economy.
I don’t think that there has been a single period in history when anyone every uttered this as a sincere belief.
Oh lord, hear us pray. Save us from the norsemen’s rage. In despair, final grasp. The longships are coming. The longships are coming …
Cervantes
Sure. Goose-stepping is a form of order, after all.
lllphd
um. tho it may be the case that boehner ‘technically’ need not do anything, the fact of the matter is that he truly MUST produce a bill, mainly because he is getting so much pressure from the (relatively) sane few republicans left, not to mention the huge pressure weighing on him from wall street and the rest of the national business community, as well business investments overseas, etcetcetc.
sure, he could do nothing; but the only ONLY reason he is doing whatever he can right now is that the pressure from these (again, relatively) sane factions are actually out-weighing the teatard pressures. and i say they out-weigh the teatards because if these idiots were his only pressure source, he really would be doing absolutely nothing right now.
Brian R.
Boehner’s a corporate shill. Are you telling me there’s no chance a billionaire has pulled him aside and told him that if he does this and takes a political hit, there won’t be a cushy corporate gig with an eight-figure salary and an eight-day work year waiting for him?
jinxtigr
Not even electorally. Chaos only amuses revolutionaries. If there were that many revolutionaries hungry for chaos and destruction, reporters wouldn’t outnumber protesters at Tea Party rallies recently.
Chaos is only good for terrorists. Just because we have terrorists elected to office thanks to lots of misguided political work by Republicans, doesn’t mean any of this is going to do anybody any good.
It’s certainly not going to help elect Republicans.
Boehner? More likely a billionare has pulled him aside and said ‘I own this town. Fuck this up and you will never work again. In this or any town.’
I’m reminded of Robert Asprin ‘Phule’s Company’ books. “In addition, I will buy up any ticket out of here on any plane, bus or train just so you can’t leave. That’s a threat. See the difference?”
Brian R.
Davis X. Johnson is right!
Matt in HB
Oh blow it out your ass Howard.
liberal
Brachiator wrote,
Agreed. Of course, maybe people would blame Obama/Congressional Dems. I’d wager they’ll blame the Republicans more. Only question is how much more.
James E. Powell
@Davis X. Machina:
Olson Johnson: Oh blow it out your ass Howard.
Tony J
And the funny thing is, they’re absolutely morally certain that however they get to ‘there’, once the shit hits the fan, they’re going to be fighting alongside the U.S. Army in Chicago bravely putting down the last Insurgent cells before heading back to base in time to enjoy a hot and sweaty Character Moment with the former Black Panther assassin who came over to their side when her father was arrested and she discovered that the Democrats had been the ‘real racists’ all along.
It’s all about getting to ‘there’. That’s when they’ll shine. This is all just backstory and prequel.
Davis X. Machina
@Matt in HB: Can’t you see this is the last act of a desperate man?
SW
This is precisely why it was always stupid to play their game. Take Clinton’s advise. Invoke the 14th. Blow them away and let god (the courts) sort it out. They are crazy and there is no profit in getting down and wrestling in the mud with the crazy. Obama was trying to be too clever. Using the crazy to do something useful. That is never a good idea. It almost always bites you in the ass. You can’t depend on the crazy. Jeez.
Violet
@liberal:
If the corporations that own the media are suffering, they’ll send word down to the “impartial” infotainment suppliers to blame someone. Might even blame the Republicans for this one, or at lest the Teabaggers.
cleek
i think if Obama just walks into the Capitol building and waves his cock around for a bit, Boehner and his minions will cower in fear and pass a clean bill.
right?
or does he have to wave his cock from the Bully Pulpit?
Hill Dweller
Apparently Norah O’Donnell accused the Dems of not compromising during the WH briefing earlier today. The level of ignorance and/or shamelessness among the Beltway stooges is astounding.
James E. Powell
What Boehner has to do is make Obama look bad, with the general public and, if possible, with his base. This and only this has been the goal and the guiding principle for Boehner and the Republicans since January 20, 2009.
He doesn’t care about the economy, unemployment, growth, interest rates, or anything else. It is all about November 2012 and everything that happens between now and then.
beltane
Chaos has a way of backfiring on the people who think they want chaos. The Republican base, made up as it is of older, sedentary people accustomed to the soft life, stand to suffer the most in the event of such chaos. Rugged individualism has always been dependant on a generous government teat. Without the government teat, it is those people with tight-knit families who are willing to pool their resources who will do the best.
Scott P.
That doesn’t blow them away. It merely shifts the focus to the next manufactured crisis. There is no end to the number of crises the House can manufacture.
Tractarian
This is absolutely true. All they need to do is loudly, and repeatedly, blame Obama for the mess. “All he had to do was sign off on Cut, Crap and Balance and all this could have been avoided!”
Remember, half the country will believe anything Fox News tells them, and the media will treat it with its usual “even-handedness”. And the Tea Partiers will be more happy to use the smoldering remains of the U.S. economy to bludgeon Obama in an election year.
It’s something that a lot of people don’t understand about the Tea Partiers. They’re not employing “Madman Theory” to increase their leverage; they actually are mad men.
OzoneR
FIFY
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@cleek: It has to be from the bully pulpit. He needs to use that damned bully pulpit more.
JGabriel
Brachiator:
That was when the president was a Southern White Country Bubba. The same dynamics might not apply for a Northern Black Urban Kenyan.
They might, but I don’t think we can count on it.
.
lacp
Yes, I’m sure the right-wing stalwarts will shine in the new Mad Max universe: Jonah Goldberg, Warrior-Pantload.
jeffreyw
Overheard in the Republican caucus room–
Raven (formerly stuckinred)
jeffreyw
You can’t fight here, this is the war room!
JGabriel
@jeffreyw: Heh. I just used that reference two threads ago.
.
Bruce S
Can anyone explain this:
http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2011/07/this-is-not-a-country-that-is-in-danger-of-losing-its-credit-worthiness.html
It appears that the bond “vigilantes” aren’t agitated…and are maintaining their aura of invisibility. Is this whole thing some Kabuki? I know it’s manufactured, but do the bond guys know with this degree of certainty that there will be a pull-back and it’s all for show?
Jimperson Zibb (formerly Duncan Dönitz, Otto Graf von Pfmidtnöchtler-Pízsmőgy, Mumphrey, et al.)
Shit. I hate these people. These “I want my country back!” turds are flushing this country down the toilet because they lost. That’s all it is. They lost and they’re so pissed off, so bitter, so self-entitled that they’ll knock down the best system of self-government the world has ever seen, just out of spite. Some of them are more pissed off that the guy who beat them is a black guy; some are more pissed off that they don’t hold the reins to the tax cut machine any more; some are pissed off that they don’t have the best offices in Washington any more. But whatever the reason, they’re willing to take everybody down with them if they can’t have their way.
If we lived in a country with a working press, nobody would give these turds any cover. But instead we have Krauthammer and Will and Brooks whining that the Democrats say mean things about the Republicans, and make fun of Michele Bachmann’s headaches, (the republicans are just trying to work things out, after all). And we have a bunch of brain-dead “liberals” like Joe Klein and Richard Cohen, who can’t tell that the Republicans are nihilistic anarchists, because some liberal hippies burned a few cars in Chicago in 1968. And we have a few people who are screaming about what’s really happening in this country, like Gene Robinson and Paul Krugman and Rachel Maddow and Bob Herbert and Harold Meyerson, but you can’t really take them seriously, since, well, Herbert and Robinson are black, so you know they’re in the tank for Obama out of racial solidarity, and Meyerson is a soçialist, so he’s crazy, and Maddow is a lesbian, so she’s evil and Krugman is just shrill and said mean things about George Bush who was really just a nice guy you’d want to have a beer with, so none of these people are people you can take seriously.
So the press as an istitution looks at the Republicans and then looks at the Democrats, and says they’re each just about as much to blame as the other. And most Americans, who don’t follow the news as carefully as we do, hear that and believe it. I truly believe that the American press as an isntitution has never gotten over Chicago in 1968. It’s like they got PSTD from it or something, and everything that happens, everything that happens, is something that you can only understand in reference to Chicago in 1968. The Democrats are always the craaaaazy-ass hippies, breaking windows and torching cars and tearing up draft cards, and the Republicans are always the grownups, wearing suits and ties and they know how the world works; they might be a little sleazy, Lord knows, but at least they’re realists, and they’re predictable. With them, you know what’s coming. You can deal with them. You can sit down and talk things over and work something out, and when you leave, you might want to check that you still have your wallet, but if you keep an eye out, you can work with them. Those Democrats, well, they’re just nuts. Hippies. Druggies. And even worse, they’re disrespectful.
So most press zombies don’t see that the Republicans have become something far more radical and more dangerous–and even worse, if they’d only open their eyes–more disrespectful than the Democrats ever were. And the Republicans take more and more and more and swing that ax ever a little harder at more and more of the country, and all Brian Williams and Wolf Blitzer and David Gregory can see is that these people are serious, sober, responsible people trying to do the best for their country, and David Broder will nod approvingly from the next world. Oh, Blittzer and Williams and Gregory might not see eye to eye with the Republicans on all the particulars of the Boehner “plan”, or the Ryan “plan”, but they only have the best interests of their country at heart. And we all know that the debt and the deficit are the biggest threats to American life today, right?
So these people are indeed getting nearer and nearer to “taking their country back.” They’ll take it back and burn it to the ground, and Gregory and all these tools will nod and smile approvingly until there’s nothing left to look at, and then, at last, they might see what’s happened and who’s to blame. Or, more likely, they’ll assume it was all because the Democrats were unwilling to “compromise” with the Republicans. So the teabaggers and their Koch overlords will take their country back. The only problem is, it’s my country, too, and I don’t want to burn it to the ground.
dr. bloor
Mediots and politicians play poker on the weekend. These guys do it for a living.
jeffreyw
@JGabriel: Heh, great minds and all…
JGabriel
Boehner’s New Plan (TPM):
So, the Republican plan is to blackmail the country into passing a balanced budget amendments that caps revenues at the 18% of GDP level we last had sometime in the — was it the 30s? — or they’ll blow up the economy.
Someone explain to me again the differences between right-wing terrorism and conservative terrorism. Because I’m really not seeing any.
.
Elie
I think that is a stupid premise, Doug. If Boehner passes nothing, its clear that they are not doing their jobs. Period. It opens the door for Obama to take his own steps to save the country. If they force Obama to act in some way, it will only be because it is obvious that the Congress did not do their job. The Repubs are boxed in. If the House does manage to pass something intollerable, it will just be killed in the Senate. If the House kills the Reid bill coming from the Senate as a last step, it will be obvious that they pulled the trigger on default, as the President can not be acused of usurping the authority of the Congress until after that last step.. and by then he will not be usurping anything. They will be refusing to do their duty.
Horrible times, they are, but this is not going to play in the republican’s favor IMHO.
Captain Haddock
I’d like to admit that i haven’t the tiniest f*cking clue what the outcome of anyone of this will be.
Legalize
@jeffreyw
Depending on the breaks.
Derf
Yawwwnnn.
The key point made in this entire blog is “IMO”. That is all.
Yawn!
beltane
@Bruce S: Barry Ritzholtz says this is because no matter what happens, the US is still the least shitty thing in the laundry-hamper. Not exactly a ringing endorsement but when you look at what’s going on in Europe it makes sense.
Matt in HB
@Davis X. Machina: I don’t care if it’s the first act of Henry the Fifth. We’re leaving!
However, I am sad I don’t have a reply button, or a functional Congress. :(
Elie
The Repubs blew this tactically but cannot figure out how to save this or themselves. In my opinion, they know they are f—-d…but have no control over their own members or the message. They are “acting crazy” and hoping that some path becomes clear before the last minute. The critical issue is that for once, they are NOT speaking with one voice. They do not trust each other any more than they trust the Democrats or Obama. That is why chaos is a distinct possibility until Obama has to step in at the last last minute next week.
Captain Haddock: I hear you. I am just babbling. Who the hell knows.
catclub
Bruce S @ 33
I would guess that since bonds MUST be paid first, and the interest+deficit is less than total income, the bonds will get paid; and the likelihood of payment is still 100%.
Has anyone mentioned that credit ratings of people who have reliable and sufficient INCOME (which translates to taxes for the government) have good credit ratings? Are there any teatard bankers who have evaluated loan applications?
Lawnguylander
If I’d been able to get away with building a 50 year movement on the message that the filthy, disgusting government is the problem, I’d be wary of forcing people to suddenly come to terms with how much they rely on the government’s help every day. The idea is to chip away at the support system gradually but permanently, not suddenly sabotage it in a way that can’t be ignored. I don’t see how chaos of this sort is the GOP’s friend.
DonkeyKong
TeaBaggers -Do I really look like a guy with a plan? You know what I am? I’m a dog chasing cars. [giddy] I wouldn’t know what to do with one if I caught it! You know, I… I just do things. The kenyan muslim has plans. The democrats have plans. Wall streets got plans. They’re schemers. Schemers trying to control their little worlds. I’m not a schemer. I try to show the schemers how pathetic their attempts to control things really are. So when I say… [grabs Boehners hand, Boenher blubbers a little] ah, come here. When I say that you and your donors was nothing personal, you’ll know that I’m telling the truth. It’s the schemers that put you where you are. You were a schemer, you had plans. And, uh…look where that got ya.
Ryan S
Some numbers if anyone cares. 18% of last years GDP
14.508 T$ * .18 = 2.6 T$
This years federal budget is 3.818 T$.
Would mean that we would have to reduce total spending by 32% roughly.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
Cantor: Default, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, But in ourselves, that we are underlings
/Orange Julius (1.2.135)
cmorenc
@beltane:
A huge problem is that a huge portion of the Republican base almost exclusively tunes in only to Faux News and right-wing talk shows, websites, and email lists. For many of them, accurate insight may be slow to break through such a high wall of misinformation and malformed world view, until they’re literally being thrown out into the street with the assets and benefits they were counting on living comfortably with having been siphoned and stripped away from them. Even then, a surprising number of them will hold onto their delusions that it’s all Obama’s fault for ruining the country on the rocks of Kenyan socialism.
Davis X. Machina
@Ryan S: But that’s a 32% increase in virtue and probity. As is widely known, recessions are caused by a collapse of aggregate virtue, or as
conservative economiststheologians like to call it, AV.aimai
This thing is basically a hot potato. The early brinksmanship was aimed at forcing Obama and the Dems to collapse and give the Republicans a whole lot in exhcange for the debt ceiling lift. And they nearly got everything and more. But Boehner’s teatards revolted against “giving” Obama anything. If they’d taken the 4 trillion deal, or any other deal, all the fallout would have been on the Dems. But they thought they could do a scootch better and now they have run out of time. They’d like to throw the whole thing back to Obama and say “we did our part and passed a bill!” figuring the public will be too confused to grasp that a house bill isn’t the whole ball of wax. But the ins and outs have become too public and Obama has played them into a corner. I think the Public hopes Obama will save them, but if the crackup comes it will be pretty clear that he tried his best and was only prevented, as was the Senate, by the dancing of the monkeys in the House. I really think the whole thing was a massive miscalculation on the part of both Boehner and the teabaggers. They never thought the revolt would get this far.
aimai
JPL
Elie,
Sometimes you just have to make a correction.
How many repubs realize that cap and trade would cut social security and medicare by twenty-five percent?
eemom
I’ve become convinced that no one anywhere in the cacophany of babbling voices speaking on this matter all over the planet possesses such clue.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@DXM #49:
Everybody know that, it’s Benthamite political-economy 101:
AV = P*W/S
where P = punishment, W = work, S = sin
Southern Beale
OT but man, check out this post at LGF about Pamela Gellar posting an anti-jihad rant from Norway way back in 2007… and today this old post has been edited to appear less crazy. She edited out the following line:
Davis X. Machina
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ: Why do they call it ‘the hedonistic calculus'” when it’s just algebra?
Shouldn’t there be some deltas in there? Or some sigmas or somethng?
jl
A teabagger congresscritter discussing their plans.
What are they going to say? He was a wise man? He had plans?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TAixFYnDh4
cat48
Ryan S
So therefore if I were to become born again and become absolved.
S = 0
Virtue = undefined
it all makes sense to me now.
Violet
@catclub:
What does this sentence mean? Credit ratings of people have good credit ratings? Huh?
Elie
eemom:
You are right — we are all speculating and babbling. Like nervous patients in the waiting room of Dr Yank and Pull. We hear the screaming and muffled struggled inside, and know that we are next but just can’t sit there quietly aware of the struggles inside and the possible pain to come in the near future. My little kleenex is rolled into a million little balls and I have completely “pitted out” my shirt, but I keep babbling nonsense… ‘do you think its going to hurt? what is going to hurt, where is it going to hurt, etc”.
jl
@58 Hey don’t try to horswoggle me with any fancy pointed headed elitists magic math, buddy.
Martin
More notably, we would need to eliminate all discretionary spending – no FBI, no IRS, no court system at all, no border patrol, no customs, no air traffic control – and eliminate 50% of all military spending.
Or we could just cancel SS and Medicare benefits and keep all the payroll taxes.
The problem isn’t the 18% GDP. We’ve been close to that plenty of times. The problem is GDP got massacred in 2008 and early 2009 and now taxes are at 16% of GDP which is starving us of our ability to simulate out of this (along with some just plain stupid spending and tax policy).
Chuck Butcher
This is still theatre for the base. All these “deals” are just vapor put out for the media.
I don’t know what they’re actually going to do, we’ll know that when they do it to us. Hell, it might even be a clean bill, for that matter.
There’s still plenty of time to panic…
FlipYrWhig
@ Jimperson Zibb:
I wholeheartedly concur. And I would add that the Democratic party hasn’t either, which is why Clinton’s victory involved positioning against spectral ’68ers (via pro-business/anti-“welfare” positioning) and why “New Democrat”/DLC/Third Way types–candidates, consultants, and pundits–continue to prescribe and reenact Clinton-lite strategies.
So the media see things as eternally 1968, and large swathes of the institutional Democratic party are haunted by 1968. Resurrecting populist liberalism is going to have to involve the demise of the ’68 frame. Because so much of the Clinton strategy was built on grappling with the echo image of 1968, there are two generations of strategists who are obsessed with it. We need it to stop, or at least for the positive legacy of ’68 to be reclaimed and redirected.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@DXM #55:
Al-jebra?
That sort of Arabic-sounding talk can land you in trouble if you aren’t careful. Best to stay on the straight and narrow:
Don’t wear sandals
Try to avoid the scandals
Don’t wanna be a bum
You better chew gum
The pump don’t work
Cause the vandals took the handles
Heliopause
Yes, I think Boehner “has” to do something. He’s said repeatedly that he will and since his true constituency is the Country Club rather than the Tea Party he “has” to at least put up the appearance.
Of course he could do nothing in the same sense that any of the actors could suddenly decide to do nothing. In fact, I’ve been half-expecting a “fuck it, I’m going to Hawaii” moment from Obama, but every time I get my hopes up he calls a presser to just repeat what he’s been saying for months. At this point I’m like the kid waiting for Christmas, I wish it would be Tuesday morning already.
jl
@65 Algebra is in our schools right now! And they make fun of the truth tellers warning about Sharia Law in the United States!
Punchy
That’s exactly what the public thinks. There hasn’t been a single media outlet to admit the honest truth w/r/t the GOP demands.
The Dems will die a slow death as long as the Repubs can do whatever they want and never get exposed for said douchebaggery.
Jeanne
Can’t you see this is the last act of a desperate man?
I don’t care if it’s the first act of Henry the Fifth!
I am loving Blazing Saddles day here at Balloon Juice. It seems very…apropos.
back to lurking!
JPL
The President will be held responsible. Expect hopey, changy ads for the next year while unemployment rises. We know the house is filled with crazies and most Americans understand that but the President will perceived as not being able to handle the crazies.
This is not good folks and imo, it could get worse.
Raven (formerly stuckinred)
FlipYrWhig
Fuckin A pigasus forever!
gogol's wife
Elie #60, that’s where I’m at exactly. That’s why I keep checking this blog where there is very little attempt at conveying hard information, but lots of sympathetic and not-sympathetic nervous talking.
Judas Escargot
@Jimperson, etc:
In Crumb, Robert Crumb tells a childhood story. There was a nice wooden truck, and Robert’s older brother wouldn’t let him play with it. Mother Crumb tells his brother “you can play with the truck for an hour, then when you’re done with it, you have to let Robert play with it.”
The hour passes, and the brother comes back inside. “I’m done with the truck, you can play with it now.” Young Robert goes outside to find the smashed, splintery remains of the truck spread out all over the sidewalk.
This is pretty much the TP demographic in a nutshell.
Cain
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q):
I wonder if he realized how much power he got after he told people to call congress the switch lines were jammed. Bully pulpit how the fuck does it work?
Come on Obama, hit em hard.. use the tools at your disposal.
Teak111
Lewinsky=debt ceiling.
Cermet
This is going exactly as planned by Obama – Orange cry baby gets his Cut, Cap and Balanced thru the house; Reid returns his version back – Cut, fake cut and fake cut some more and an extension of the debt ceiling to after 2012. All demorats vote yeah in the house and using lots, a few thugs take the hit and also say yeah. Bill passes in time. Obama signs and all is well and the sun continues to travel around the earth for tea baggers and these nut cases go further insane but no one supplies the money to bus the white old farts to any rallies and we move on to the budget (like that will ever get passed.)
Raven (formerly stuckinred)
Cain
Seems to me it’s pretty hard to make any case with that. Who knows why people we calling?
different church-lady
Didn’t work for them in 1995, not going to work for them this time either.
JGabriel
@JPL:
Upon learning that, how may will say, “That’s all? Dammit, I’m not voting for it until we cut SS by 50%!”
.
Cris (without an H)
For that matter, with the country in pieces, history suggests the public will turn to the most authoritarian party. The GOP likes those odds.
different church-lady
He has to sign his an executive signing statement with his cock on the Bully Pulpit.
Nutella
@FlipYrWhig:
Chicago 1968 continues to influence now, but it’s usually a twisted view of what actually happened. How many of the people who are worried about Chicago 1968 remember that it was a police riot? How many will connect that long-ago police riot with the recent police violence in the previous post?
artem1s
@Judas Escargot:
sweet FSM, the GOP is the Crumb family! :P We are all doomed.
Cris (without an H)
cleek:
“Excuse me while I whip this out.”
JGabriel
@Cris (without an H):
European history suggests that. American history says we usually turn to progressives or the left during economic crises. We may flip flop a little, but that’s the trend; e.g., turning to FDR after Hoover.
.
Cris (without an H)
@Martin:
It’s Ron Paul’s platform! Well, except for the border patrol part I guess.
Raven (formerly stuckinred)
Nutella
Long ago? Seems like yesterday to me.
Ryan S
Do you want hard facts?
Here’s one with Boehner plan about 10% of our current economy evaporates.
If we do nothing about the debt ceiling about 20% of the economy will evaporate by September.
Cain
I wonder when tea nuts will start clamoring to stop the evil “Al-Gebra” that they just found out our kids are learning!
A couple of years ago, a muslim friend on facebook that i’ve known since college apologized to me regarding Islam. I felt really sad that he had to apologize for his religion. I told him (quite strongly) that he had nothing to apologize for that the people who are doing this are not religious, and not Islamic. It still pains to recall it.
PIGL
In other less favoured and exceptional countries, times like this are when a Napolean figure would arise, declare martial law, and start executing malicious prick-bastards on the white-house lawn. Perhaps by tying them to the mouth of a cannon, like in the good old days for which the teabaggers yearn. Or, better yet, breaking them on the wheel. That would be about what they deserve, and would also make absolute riveting TV, for a populace that badly needs a dose of real reality.
I am presently on a remote and semi-rural corner of Canada’s placid west coast. Shortly I will be heading to the one and only bank machine in the locality, to find out just how worried I should really be…
The spectacle of what the USA has become would be entertaining if only were occurring on some other planet.
Violet
Just saw this at GOS. Interview with Boehner in December:
I guess the mess he’s in means he didn’t educate them, and they’re still children. No surprise there.
Stooleo
“Suppose you were an idiot, and suppose you were a member of Congress; but I repeat myself.”
Mark Twain
Brachiator
@liberal:
@JGabriel:
RE: Yeah, something like this really worked well for Newt Gingrich back in the day. The GOP is suicidal.
and
Right now, I am less concerned about the political dynamics of this insane standoff and more concerned with the potential impact on the national economy and the lives of ordinary Americans.
And no matter what blame gets parceled out, or the degree to which Obama is feared or loved, it is going to fall on him to deal with the aftermath.
To use a Star Trek reference, this shit is crazier than the Kobayashi Maru.
But here is one possible worst case political consequence. The GOP escapes major blame, even finds a way to defeat Obama in 2012, even if the economy goes deeper into the toilet. Then, having convinced themselves that they can get away with anything, the Republicans role the dice again on some ultra bullshit free market fantasy that blows up in their faces and sinks the entire economy permanently.
Then it won’t matter who’s left to take the blame.
Raven (formerly stuckinred)
The black cloud crossed my mind
Blue mist round my soul
Feel so suicidal
Even hate my rock and roll wanna die
Yeah, wanna die
If I ain’t dead already
Ooh, girl you know the reason why
James E. Powell
@FlipYrWhig:
And let’s not forget Sister Souljah. Democrats always have to ‘distance’ themselves from any and all ideas that are too black, for lack of a better term. Obviously, this is pretty damned hard for Obama to do.
At the same time, Democrats are expected to be political buddies with Rick Warren and others who will never support or vote for a Democrat, who will vilify Democrats as Satan’s party.
JPL
Raven (formerly stuckinred) @ 97.. Well that certainly cheered me up.
Cris (without an H)
@Raven:
No shit. All these years, I thought it was “humus.” Guess I never read that big fold-out lyric sheet very carefully.
Xenos
@Elie:
The best term for this is abdication. The house will have abdicated, and other branches of government can then be excused for extraconstitutional actions that are plainly necessary.
A useful example of this is the gay marriage case in Massachusetts. For several years several gay marriage bills, civil partnership bills, straight-marriage only bills were submitted to the General Court, and every one of them, right-wing, left-wing, and center, was killed in committee. The legislature would not touch it, and people wanted it sorted out, and so popular sentiment was strongly behind the Supreme Judicial Court deciding the issue as it did. You could not condemn it as judicial activism when the legislature had consistently abdicated its authority.
Likewise, Obama may be stretching his authority by taking the fourteenth amendment option. But if the House can not get a bill out, what else is he to do? Cancel Social Security and Medicare? Close all the airports? Leave the soldiers in Afghanistan without a plane ticket home?
PreservedKillick
Really too harsh.
Pillory would be more appropriate.
Elie
Gogol’s wife @65
Well shoot! I don’t know you well enough to figure out whether you are being sarcastic or not, but if you are being sarcastic, all I can do is apologize that we cannot make it all clear for you, darlin.
Needless to say, its pretty complex and things have to run their course. We are also not privy to complete inside information, though to me it seems we have some thoughtful and knowledgeable commenters who seem pretty aware of the key issues. Don’t know about you, but having that sort of conversation is pretty nice. Too bad you want the authoritative, “facts” only solution. BTW, who should be empowered to provide you the perfect facts?
I apologize in advance if I am misinterpreting your comment.
Raven (formerly stuckinred)
JPL
Better to listen to it
Yer Blues
jwb
Bruce S.: Money either knows something (that the deal is cooked, that there are good workarounds if a deal is not made) or money is stupid and in denial. I think it’s closer to the latter than the former.
arguingwithsignposts
@PIGL:
IANAH, but I have just been reading a book on the history of the French Revolution, and sadly, no. There’s a lot more insanity and bloodshed before Napoleon figure comes in.
Lolis
WaPo lets you pick what not to pay here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/federal-debt-limit-you-choose-who-gets-paid/
The comments are god awful. Someone actually wrote we should not pay Dept. of Education because every parent knows that they are worthless. Many Americans have no understanding of how our government functions. It is sad.
jwb
Captain Haddock: “I’d like to admit that i haven’t the tiniest f*cking clue what the outcome of anyone of this will be.” It really would make a remarkable reality show if we could watch but didn’t have to live with the consequences.
Raven (formerly stuckinred)
Cold Turkey has got me on the run. . .
Cris (without an H)
How’s it going to end?
Martin
We started the day with $53.575B in cash. That’s now less than the last reported net worth of Bill Gates, and some $26B less than what Apple holds.
It would appear that in accordance with the SS Trust Fund rules, we rolled almost $15 more in cash that we were sitting on into bonds than matured yesterday, so our cash balance dropped almost 30% in one day.
I don’t know how Treasury is planning to get through Monday. The last first of the month, July 1, we burned through $63B in cash:
$22B Social Security
$19B Medicare
$4.5B Retirement
$4B Active duty military pay
$4B Military retirement pay
$4B in Veterans benefits
Plus all the other usual stuff.
Total taxes and other incoming cash: $20B. Doesn’t seem like they have enough now if they were to face the same bills.
Raven (formerly stuckinred)
Cris
The future’s uncertain
and the end is always near
jprfrog
Bravo #31! I can still hear General Turgidson (standing in for Curtis LeMay) growling that line.
BTW, did you know that Kubrick started the film as a serious thriller, but that as they were shooting it nobody could keep a straight face while saying the lines, so he redid it as a black comedy. Some critics credit the film for starting the destruction of the military icon (see: John Wayne) that became endemic during the VN war: also, Dr. Strangelove himself was supposed to be a ripoff of Herman Kahn but anticipated Henry Kissinger by accident. Doubly ironic because Kissinger is Jewish.
Nobody could satirize a TPer today (Poe’s Law in action). Our insane reality is yet more bizarre than any fiction.
LittlePig
and the end is always near
The President is near, too. Thus our self-immolation as a nation.
arguingwithsignposts
@martin,
I assume a lot of people who got paid at the end of the month will show up in tax receipts soon?
jwb
JGabriel: You forgot to throw in the tax cut.
HyperIon
OT but Fallows has a post just up that addresses the Jeffrey Goldberg dustup that Cole posted about yesterday.
Bokonon
As other people have noticed, there are a number of people on the right who wouldn’t be opposed to a man on a horse coming in and assuming power, and vanquishing their enemies. Sort of a right wing religious nationalist. Think Franco or Pinochet. All in the best sense of violating the Constitution in order to save the nation, of course.
Remember the cute little thought exercise that a Newsmax editorial writer issued about a year ago, wondering whether a military coup might be useful?
If you go back and read that editorial now – if you can locate a copy – it reads an awful lot like what the GOP is trying to do to Obama in the present. It spoke of “permitting” Obama to stay in office, but under strict limits to his authority, so that the President would carry out his executive duties under strict parameters and under tight supervision from his patriotic military watchers, and only do what they allowed and approved.
My understanding that this caused consternation and teeth-gnashing even within Newsmax. But perhaps that was form over substance.
cleek
@different church-lady:
on the back of a copy of the 14th Amendment?
Ryan S
@Lolis: I’ve been there also, and I have one big issue with that line of thought. Governmental depts aren’t just like light switches that you can turn on and off. Some percentages of their costs will always have to be paid, to keep the lights on or pay security, maintenance. Plus if you layoff all those workers who will pay their unemployment benefits.
jwb
jprfrog: “Nobody could satirize a TPer today (Poe’s Law in action). Our insane reality is yet more bizarre than any fiction.” Which is why it’s become more and more difficult to distinguish an Onion story from the real news.
Elie
Not to add to the crazy thought, but this would be a perfect time for some dictator somewhere or some country itching to do something, to do it… The US and most of the western world is pretty distracted right now…
Mnemosyne
We have to get through the Reign of Terror before we can get to the relative calm and peace of Napoleon’s reign. And, no, we aren’t even close to spotting our Robespierre yet.
jwest
I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict that Obama will still carry Hawaii in 2012.
(if he drops much more in the polls, I might want to revise this)
Martin
@arguingwithsignposts:
I think most fed employees get paid on the first of the month, but they’ll either get paid today or Monday. The first of the month is the largest outflow day.
Geithner is sticking to his 8/2 guns, and even hinting we may have a few days longer, so clearly I’m not reading this quite right, but it’s pretty interesting to see how the day-to-day operations work.
Stooleo
Matt Yglesias, has an interesting way to avoid default but probably not a downgrade.
Heliopause
Brachiator @96
Then the good news is that all Obama has to do is alter the program and it will game out perfectly.
Martin
Huh. New solution here.
We go past 8/2, don’t have enough cash to pay bills, but we pay the bills anyway. Fed doesn’t have any cash left in that account with which to withdraw funds, so it simply prints more money and sticks it in there. Since the fed is empowered to print money in order to stabilize the economy, it’d be perfectly within their obligation – it’s just that instead of buying treasuries with that money, it stuffs it in the feds bank account instead.
We replace borrowing with inflation, which normally isn’t desirable, but it’d be no more new dollars issued than the annual deficit (which is still a lot, but overall probably less costly than a default). It’s not far removed from the ‘have the Fed tear up those bonds they just bought’ idea.
And it’d immediately negate the debt limit threat.
Martin
@Heliopause:
I think that’s precisely what may happen.
catclub
Martin @ 128 Tell me where you read that. I have read it also recently.
Martin
@catclub: CNBC
I mean, the Fed would have to go along with the plan, since they’re independent, but I can’t imagine they wouldn’t.
Thoughtcrime
Martin, I’d been wondering about a “we own the presses, so just print the money” solution.
But it was so obvious yet never mentioned that I figured there must be some catch.
gogol's wife
#103 Elie, I was agreeing with you. You may not see this answer because I’ve been away from the computer for a while. It is so hard to convey the correct tone on here. It was a sympathetic comment, in response to people saying that no one knows what’s going to happen. I agree that no one knows, but somehow it’s comforting to read everyone’s imaginings.
cleek
@catclub:
that’s pretty much the “make 2 $1,000,000,000,000 coins” solution. just print the money and hand it out.
@Thoughtcrime:
the catch is inflation.
jl
@131 Martin:
The Fed giving the US government ad hoc overdraft protection is just one of umpteen ways I have read about that a resourceful and bold administration could used to evade the debt limit.
And a little more inflation would not be a bad thing macroeconomic policy wise.
And Issa’s House Congressional witch trials, I mean, very concerned and serious investigative hearings would be a hoot and a half.
The current approach to Congressional approve national debt levels needs to die as quickly as possible after this mess. I think there was a congressional rule in force for over twenty years that deemed any appropriations that were made law to automatically raise enough debt to cover them. The GOP geniuses did away with that. Gephardt rule? Mansfield rule? Anyone know?
OK, here it is, one of the first things that came up when I googled ‘Gephardt’ (one of those weird German names I keep forgetting how to spell).
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/05/how-dick-gephardt-fixed-the-debt-ceiling-problem/238571/
jl
@134
A little inflation, or maybe even moderate inflation would be a feature, not a bug, of the Fed overdraft route.
Would provide some stimulus to the economy, and inflate away the value of paper claims (that are in excess of value of real underlying assets) that the ‘pretend and extend’ banks and financial companies are fighting over.
I like it.
ranger3
Repent your sins! Renounce you worldly social security and your sinful unemployment insurance and accept Supply Side Jesus as your personal savior! It’s not to late to spend eternity in free market heaven… or perish for all time in socialism hell.
Omnes Omnibus
@ jl:
I have no problem at all with some inflation coming out of this mess. As you said, there are some real upsides.
cleek
@jl:
it would also make the rest of the world think we’re completely crazy.
jl
@138 Too late.
TenguPhule
And we need to discourage this line of thinking by having Teabagger House Members suffering casualties.
Pink Snapdragon
Martin @125 : Federal employees are generally paid biweekly. The actual paydays vary by agency.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
Martin @ 128
A couple of questions: Isn’t this workaround (the Fed just creates new money and puts it into the govt account without taking anything as collateral) an implied IOU, which means that it is a new issue of govt debt in a different form (in which case here we are back at the ceiling limit problem again) unless the Fed explicitly states that they never expect to receive repayment at some point in the future as compensation? And if so, is doing the latter within the authority of the Fed under their charter?
Judas Escargot
@Thoughtcrime, Martin, et al:
Inflation would probably drive interest rates up pretty quickly.
Unless, of course, it didn’t. Given bond rates this week, the bondgangs seem happy with rates just as they are, as long as they’re first in line to be repaid (which all sides agree, they are). This “Helicopter Rescue Squad” policy wouldn’t change anything from their POV.
And Congress can’t really do much. Impeach… for breaking what law? Subpoena Bernanke… for what? I suppose they could start trying to outlaw/disband the Fed…
Sounds too good to be true.
moops
I’m guessing the “print money” solution is a possibility. I mean, nobody wants to actually do anything in this situation. Everyone is paralyzed. come Tuesday morning, we are all still stuck, but the money just keeps moving. The printing press is virtual here. pure incompetence could lead to the exact policy we want. Printing money and moving the economy forward.
wrb
@catclub:
Here is a discussion of the creating money option I posted a couple of times before
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/07/the-us-government-cannot-ever-run-out-of-money/242622/
Elie
gogol’s wife:
I know what you mean about interpreting things here. Thanks for follwing up… I am also off and online and its hard to keep up with the detailed exchanges..
OzoneR
From a friend’s Facebook status;
Do people think this a fucking joke? I told him let’s see if he’s still saying that on Tuesday.
Jimperson Zibb (formerly Duncan Dönitz, Otto Graf von Pfmidtnöchtler-Pízsmőgy, Mumphrey, et al.)
@ JGabriel:
Damn, I hope to hell you’re right about that.
Martin
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ:
Well, no. Odd as it is, the federal printing press doesn’t need to ‘balance’ with anything. While Congress has authority to raise debt under the Constitution, the Fed has all of the authority to print money – and they do it whenever they feel like. Nobody needs to ‘pay’ for that money, or provide anything to balance it. They just print it, it exists, and that’s that.
Normally, the Fed does balance it against something else – they inject it into the economy by doing stuff like buying Treasuries, like they recently did. If the economy needs liquidity because cash is tied up in houses and factories or in foreign banks so they can buy oil, then the Fed is supposed to print money to address that. Well, this is a fairly similar, if unique instance of that. The US government has a liquidity crisis, and that liquidity crisis, once it runs out of money will rapidly become a US economy liquidity crisis because all of those senors won’t get their SS checks, soldiers and federal retirees won’t get their benefits, and so on.
The Fed would simply print money and rather than buy Treasuries (which it couldn’t really do anyway because the govt can only issue them as fast as they mature right now) they’d just stuff it in the US government account. Liquidity problem solved.
The ‘balance’ in the equation, if you’re like me and see conservation laws in everything (physicist), is that for every dollar that the Fed prints, the value of every existing dollar goes down. I think it works out that every $1T in new currency results in about 2% inflation. So in a way, it’s a means to tax the public simply by devaluing everything that everyone owns. And as much as rich people earn and could be taxed, they own way the fuck more.
In this case, it’s not something that Obama or Congress can do, directly, The federal reserve is independent, so it’s something that technically they do independently, and there’s not a fucking thing the tea party can do to stop it.