Apparently Manchin is still digging in:
Four key GOP senators who have announced their support for a “don’t ask, don’t tell” repeal are prepared to join Democrats in voting to let the bill proceed, as long as Congress first deals with a measure to fund the government, aides to the four said Friday.
The aides said Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, Lisa Murkowski and Scott Brown will vote Saturday to end debate on the ban on openly gay and lesbian people in the military if the Senate passes a stopgap spending bill, a continuing resolution to keep the government funded.
The four have previously said that bill must be approved first.
The Senate is currently working to craft a temporary spending bill, made necessary after Democratic leadership pulled a $1 trillion spending bill after Republicans abandoned their support of it.
The four senators’ support for the “don’t ask, don’t tell” repeal would ensure the 60 votes needed to clear the way for the bill toadvance even if Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat, votes against it, as is expected.
I’m of two minds on this. The first is that the Manchin team realizes how stupid and ham-handed their initial response to their no-vote on cloture last week was, and that their public statements just made Manchin look like an idiot. “I need more time to gauge the opinions of WV” and that other nonsense just made him look like a rookie, and they know it. So now they have decided to latch on to the whole “we support repeal but not while troops are in the field” nonsense (seriously- when are American troops NOT in the field?), because at the very least that sounds like a principled argument. Like many in Washington, they’ve decided it is better to look stupid than weak, so they are sticking to their guns and this bullshit excuse rather than just admitting they had no argument and voting to end cloture.
The second option is that he’s just decided that sticking it to gay people is good politics in WV.
He might be right on both accounts. I don’t know.
Via twitter, I see that Steve Clemons was chatting with Manchin, and should have a story on that conversation soon.
Linda Featheringill
It sort of looks like the DADT bill will actually pass but I’m still holding my breath.
DREAM is supposed to be voted on but it doesn’t have much of a chance, does it? Maybe it will just be an opportunity to go on record with a vote.
specialed5000
I was at a reception/awards ceremony at the Governor’s mansion here in Charleston earlier this year. A friend and I spoke to Joe briefly, and my friend made a point to thank him for the letter that he contributed to the Pride Guide for this year’s WV Pride Festival, also here in Charleston. My friend asked in large part just to see what his reaction would be, and so that we could guess whether he knew that he had sent the letter that the pride committee had asked for, or if his staff sent it with him having little if any knowledge of it. He seemed to know exactly what we were talking about, said that he had been happy to help, etc, and warmly thanked us for asking him about it. Either his vote was even more cynical that it appears, or he is even better at lying to people’s faces than I would have guessed.
jwb
It doesn’t really matter, since it ain’t happening unless the goopers fuck up the end game as they work to pin the failure on the Dems.
Joseph Nobles
As a gay man, I would rather see the DREAM Act passed than DADT repeal. Yes, I’d prefer both pass. America deserves for both to pass. But if I had to make Sophie’s choice here, I’d go for the DREAM Act.
arguingwithsignposts
Well, cheer up, Cole. At least you don’t have Mark fucking Kirk as a Senator backscratching that asshole McConnell as they watch the country burn. Next 6 years are gonna be good times!
cleek
this week, they were holding DADT hostage to the tax deal. now, they’re going to hold it hostage to the budget bill.
and after that ?
fuck these duplicitous dickheads. put it up for vote and make the motherfuckers say No.
Ana Gama
We need a push for the 9/11 First Responders bill!
General Stuck
It’s all fucking crazy, and nobody can do anything about it. Now, Corker and some of his fellow pyromaniacs are threatening to can the START treaty cloture vote, if a vote is held on DADT. The only way this is going to be settled is for dems to just call these asswipe insurgents bluff and let the Federal government shut down. You can’t run a country under non stop extortion, at least for very long. And let fate make the call when the pitchforks and lanterns come out and we settle it the old fashioned way. Let the revolution begin.
Omnes Omnibus
@cleek: @General Stuck:
Unfortunately, I think you are both right.
bleh
Manchin IS a rookie, and he looks like it. But gay-bashing is as safe a strategy in WV as you can get — even safer than bashing environmentalists. Even a rookie knows that.
That said, he’s an embarrassment. Seriously, Joe, grow a pair.
Hunter Gathers
@arguingwithsignposts: Ah yes, Mark Kirk, Captain of the Starship Douchebag. We can thank the morons who voted Green Party for the 6 years of ass-hattery we are going to have to endure from that fucknut.
Corner Stone
Besides the administration, who gives the first fuck about START?
How bout a jobs bill instead, you fucking assholes.
ETA, yes, I know a fuckton of establishment assholes all stood up straight and tall on this issue. Who fucking cares.
Corner Stone
@cleek:
And they hold two friends hostage, and they hold two friends hostage, and they hold two friends…
kdaug
@General Stuck:
And that’s how you “drown it in a bathtub”.
Feature, not a bug.
NineJean
You make me feel a bit guilty, given that I have two (count’em! TWO!!!) senate-critters that I totally trust to do the right thing… So now that it seems that one has gummed up the works a bit – surgery on Monday that he really can’t put off – I’m wondering if there’s anything I can do to make up for that. Open for suggestions….
Corner Stone
@Hunter Gathers: I’ve heard this a couple times now. Any links to what you’re talking about?
Corner Stone
How’s that broken glass working out?
celticdragonchick
Punching kweers is always good politics in Appalachia.
celticdragonchick
@Joseph Nobles:
Too many dems have already said they will vote against DREAM. It’s dead for now.
stuckinred
Captain Beefheart died.
Hunter Gathers
@Corner Stone: Here.
Giannoulias lost by 71,501 votes.
116,685 morons voted Green Party. You know, because there’s no real difference between the parties. Ralph Nader told me so.
arguingwithsignposts
@Corner Stone:
As for my part, there was a TPM post (which I can’t find now because their site sucks) which had Kirk asking if “fiscal conservatives had won?” when McConnell announced they were deep-sixing the omnibus spending bill.
I have neither seen nor read nor heard anything from kirk since he began his campaign that would suggest he would be anything other than another douchebag to the hilt RW asshole. And he’s letting his douchebag flag fly now.
I would call his office, but I’m afraid of what I might say to the peons who answer the phones.
Evolved Deep Southerner
@celticdragonchick: Yes. Works as good there as it does Down South, I imagine. If you’re a pol thinking about DADT, you can safely disregard the polls. The people who say they are in support of it aren’t one-issue voters and won’t remember how you voted on it next time around. The people agin’ it, though? They’ll remember it and vote against you if it harelips Robert E. Lee.
Corner Stone
@Hunter Gathers: Thanks for the info.
Corner Stone
@arguingwithsignposts: I don’t know what this has to do with me, but I will agree.
Kirk is a first class douchebag.
And his little victory lap on the floor of the Senate made me want to Captain Kirk his ass and transport through my TV so I could nut punch that smirky motherfucker.
Omnes Omnibus
@Corner Stone: I would prefer a world where nuke fuel isn’t just wandering the streets on a whim. START is one of those things that, in a sane Congress, would have come up for a vote and been ratified 89-6.
kdaug
Had my mother in town, staying with us, at the beginning of the week.
Traditional right-winger. Hates DADT repeal, convinced there’s a vast-gay-wing conspiracy that’s brainwashing people.
I asked her how many gay people she knew. She was pretty sure that her hairdresser was (couldn’t say for sure, but absolutely insisted she doesn’t “hate” gay people). She’s a good “Christian” woman, after all.
Told her I had a buddy in theater in Af/Pac, Army Intel – Linguist, who was openly gay (to us civies, not to the Army). Told her his only complaint was that he had to lie about it, and that lying betrayed his code of conduct.
She changed the subject.
(Note: She’s ex-mil herself (Navy), but also damn near 70.)
DADT is dead. If not now, then next year. If not, the year after that.
And my wife and I will celebrate with our gay friends when it happens.
kc
“I need more time to gauge the opinions of WV” and that other nonsense just made him look like a rookie,
‘Specially when the knock on his opponent was that the guy spent more time at his mansion in Florida than in WV.
Corner Stone
@Omnes Omnibus: OO, climb up behind me on my magical Ponicorn! Let us fly to Muzzer Rusha, pull out our flat bladed screwdrives and inspect zee tips of zee ICBM’s toogezzer!!
DickSpudCouchPotatoDetective
Joe IS a rookie, and a trailer park rookie at that, from the looks of things.
What will probably (as of this hour, things in DC being fluid at the moment so stay tuned) happen is that DADT will be repealed with or without the horse’s ass from WV.
In a matter of days, Obama can have delivered tax cuts, unemployment insurance, DADT repeal and (maybe even START) … and polls that show him holding the high ground in electoral matchups for the next election cycle. Plus approval numbers that have held steady through a brutal off year election season.
Meanwhile, there is the BJ commentariat and its resounding smirgle of hevbankial mmmmph zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
( christmas music )
arguingwithsignposts
@Corner Stone:
sorry, HG was responding to me, so wasn’t sure what thing you were asking about – the backing mcconnell or the green party bit.
Corner Stone
@DickSpudCouchPotatoDetective: LARGEST DEFICIT BUSTING INCREASE IN HISTORY1!1!
Obama is done in 2012. U3 will be above 8%.
Omnes Omnibus
@Corner Stone: Um, I have plans this evening, but thanks, it sounds… special.
The reason I mentioned what I thought a vote would be in a sane Congress is that, if we can’t ratify a treaty like START, what hope is there for the jobs bill you seek?
Chyron HR
@Corner Stone:
The hordes of True Progressives who’ll be here bitching if it isn’t ratified?
Corner Stone
@arguingwithsignposts: The failure of Gennyoolias due to GP voters.
It’s funny to me that everyone who bags on Green Party voters somehow just accepts that they would vote D otherwise. Which I think is far from proven.
Corner Stone
@Omnes Omnibus: Good luck on your special day.
Corner Stone
@Chyron HR: God you’re a moron. No one outside the beltway gives an oomph about START.
Tell you what. Go to any place you want on Saturday and ask 100 people how they feel about START.
Chyron HR
@Corner Stone:
Dude, most of us just think about naked ladies and/or guys when we want to do That.
Omnes Omnibus
@Corner Stone: Thank you, although, to venture into maudlin sentimentality here, the luck happened about over seven years ago when Mrs Omnibus said yes.
Corner Stone
@Omnes Omnibus: Honestly, that was my best “Natasha” from Boris and Natasha fame.
Tsulagi
Stupid is in. Downright trendy. See Palin and her backup singers like O’Donnell and Angle. Beck sells it by the shovel full. Then you have the loony blend of stupid like real American candidates who play Nazi dressup or teabagger strike forces that swoon over pics of a topless Vladimir.
Fuck Reagan’s Morning in America for these people, it’s now More Brawndo! all the time and word salad otherwise you talk like a fag or worse a Democrat. Sometimes you gotta wonder how deep is this rabbit hole that is American politics today.
Chyron HR
@Corner Stone:
God you’re a moron. My point was that if it isn’t ratified, you and the rest of the usual suspects will immediately start caring because it will be irrefutable proof that “Black Jesus” has “anal poisoning”, or whatever charming political commentary you’re lifting from Rush Limbaugh that week.
Corner Stone
@Chyron HR: Sigh. Stop projecting amigo. You don’t wear that shade of brutal very well.
Corner Stone
@Chyron HR: No one cares about START except for old Washington hands.
You’re a fool.
Omnes Omnibus
@Corner Stone: Oh.
Chicago dyke
@Hunter Gathers:
yes, those all powerful Greens. who control the media, who benefit from Citizens United. who make up the vast majority of republican voters, and the majority of demoralized dems, disappointed by a gay hating, tax cuts for the rich, war expanding, catfood commission enrolling president, who stayed home in droves this past election. who are responsible for the american idol watching non-voting part of the electorate. who brought about the destruction of quality public education in most public school districts, and who granted or voted in favor of NAFTA and changes in regulation which allow corporations to set up shop in the Caymans, while off-shoring the last of the good middle class jobs to Chindia and Korea. when they weren’t negotiating the end of union power in order to bailout GM executives, or whip up Democratic support for TARP. you know, the ones who have had total control of both houses and the administration for the past two years, or who drummed out the last of the actually conservative moderates from the Republican party, replacing it with diaper wearing, toe tapping, murderous cronies.
yes, the Greens. the new Satan of our age, despite the fact that they did worse as a party overall in 2010 than in several previous elections? kick them in the nuts some more, it will make everything better, i’m sure.
Corner Stone
@Omnes Omnibus: No. I mean, “Good Luck”. wink, wink.
JPL
@DickSpudCouchPotatoDetective: Christmas music indeed. Maybe our lord and master will put up an open thread dedicated to all things Christmas. We could link to favorite carols, or RJud if she’s not sleeping can post a picture of her baby and the tree and if Kitten is around maybe a new photo of Sam.
I find Corner Stones comments boring. It’s the same blah, blah, blah, blah
Omnes Omnibus
@Corner Stone: I see. Thank you then.
DickSpudCouchPotatoDetective
@Corner Stone:
Yeeeahhh. Why don’t you post us a list of presidential elections decided by deficit concerns?
Corner Stone
@JPL: Ah, demowoman. You have wounded me. In this season of spiritual giving, you’re going to hurt me like this?
Why? Why?
I’m going to have to contemplate this for a while.
jeffreyw
Joe just wants to make sure that WV gets its share of the pie.
Corner Stone
@DickSpudCouchPotatoDetective: As usual, you’re too dim to get this.
Obama will not be able to fight the rhetoric that is enabled by this “tax cut” deal.
If U3 is above 8%, and I believe it will be after the austerity measures put in place by this April, the R party can nominate a mop bucket and win in 2012.
DickSpudCouchPotatoDetective
@JPL:
Corner Stone is never boring. Wrong, sometimes, but never boring.
But, Lord and Master? Hmm. A guy drives up with a political sandwich truck, and we hang out and buy some coffee and a few stale donuts, and he is Lord and Master?
I dunno. That sounds goofy.
Omnes Omnibus
@DickSpudCouchPotatoDetective: There were donuts? Why wasn’t i called? i specifically left word that I should be called it there were donuts. You bastards.
DickSpudCouchPotatoDetective
@Corner Stone:
What rhetoric? From the lefty blogs? What the hell are you talking about?
In 2009 we said that his reelection was going to depend on the jobless rate. Nothing has changed. That is going to be the deciding factor. Everybody knows it, even you. Even the other idiots on this blog. Even Mitch McConnell knows it, for crissakes.
I am not sure where the tipping point is, but I think it is somewhere south of 7%. But in any case, if people think they are better off, deficits won’t matter. And if people think they are worse off, deficits won’t matter. If you look closely you will see a commonality there.
Corner Stone
@DickSpudCouchPotatoDetective: Deficits do not matter to rational people in times of extreme stress. Which excludes the electorate as a whole.
U3 will be above 8% in 2012.
This tax cut deal is only one part of what’s coming. I don’t know what is so hard for some to understand that.
We’re in for a long hard fucking slog for the next two years.
We just solidified a lot of “understood” rhetorical positions in the larger publics’ minds.
Shalimar
60 votes including 4 Republicans. Nothing can go wrong there. I wonder which of those 60 has to take one for the party and go down in history as a bigot by coming up with a last-second reason for voting no to cloture? I’m going with Murkowski, and in exchange the nut who ran against her is finally convinced to concede.
binky
Fairness WV is reporting that Manchin’s voice mailbox is full at the DC office, and recommending email or calling his two branch offices. I emailed and called. Talked to a polite but bored sounding young staffer. Sounds like they’re getting a lot of traffic, but no idea which way it’s trending.
DickSpudCouchPotatoDetective
@Corner Stone:
If U3 is above 8 then we are in trouble. But it won’t be because of deficits. If U3 is near or below 7, and if people are feeling reasonably optimistic about their own fortunes, then we are in good shape.
As for the other part, I think we follow the Clinton strategy. He worked with the GOP and got welfare reform done. This largely immunized him against the “tax and spend” GOP mantra against Dems. Meanwhile unemployment went steadily down into 1996. Clinton ran on an optimistic “bridge to the future” theme and won without taking a deep breath. Newt Gingrich was the best thing that ever happened to him. Our version of that is to work with the GOP on deficit reduction/spending curbs that don’t hurt the middle class in the near term. And Obama is already talking about those, so he is on track.
I seriously doubt that the Clinton experience is lost on Obama. I also seriously doubt that, thinking that a declining U3 trajectory was essential to his future prospects, Obama would walk away from the deal he just made with Mitch McConnell. No other move right now would both nudge U3 downward and at the same time give the impression that jobs and money in middle class pockets were tops on Obama’s priority list.
We’ll see how it plays out.
Absolutely brilliant move. Nobody will give a rat’s ass about deficits, except the people in the GOP primary, none of whom will have a prayer if U3 is heading down.
DickSpudCouchPotatoDetective
@Omnes Omnibus:
My approach to donuts is to eat them first, and mention them later.
Corner Stone
@DickSpudCouchPotatoDetective: IMO, we’re seeing two different perspectives. Obama is not Clinton. And he does not have the same GOP to buffer against.
And I’m no WJC fluffer.
IMO, there will not be anything like the tech boom that allowed WJC to play along during his last 6 years.
We’re going to see a vicious U3, and with no manipulation a U6 of 20%+ for the next two years.
And you misunderstand me. No one will give a good fuck about the “deficit” itself. But the rhetoric launched by the rightwing will have no defense.
IMO, Obama just handed the nutters his sword.
General Stuck
@Corner Stone:
Well, one thing is for sure, letting the mc tax cuts expire would have taken around 400 billion out of the economy the next two years, that would likely be spent as stimulus. It makes this tax cut deal have several angles of good and bad, whether to keep them going or not. And if you are banking on Obama losing 2012, because of the economy not recovering and creating new jobs, then you really can’t be for letting all the tax cuts expire right now. For the long term, we need the revenue, but not for the short term. That money needs to stay in lower income peoples paychecks, so they will spend it. So in practical effect, Obama got his self a new stimulus bill of sorts. Along with not pissing off a huge number of middle class voters going into his reelection.
The wingnuts will rail about cutting taxes no matter what happens, and the deficit.
DickSpudCouchPotatoDetective
@Corner Stone:
We agree and disagree at the same time. I don’t think U3 < 8 is going to be easy. So on that part we are probably in agreement.
I am no fan of WJC the person, but as a political animal, he is not somebody we can ignore. He is pretty smart. Obama is not WJC, and I think that works to his advantage in the long run.
I think that there is pent up demand for hiring out there that will be unleashed by some optimism and favorable trends. The business community insists that there is, and I have no reason to disagree with them. If that is right, a 2.5% drop in unemployment is possible.
I am sure that the potatoheads will try to use the deficit slam. I just don't think it works if people think things are getting better. So we are probably saying the same thing there. If things are better, deficit reduction measures and a quick look at the Bush record on deficits will defuse that argument. If things are worse, nothing we say will matter.
That's not just my opinion. Obama himself has said basically the same things, and I don't see anyone out there sizing this all up more astutely than he is.
Anyway, if I am Obama, I am on a two year crusade about Jobs jobs jobs at this point and the GOP is stuck with being the GOP and fighting all its useless personality and cultural battles, just like they always are. If we attack deficits, if U3 declines, and if the baby Jesus gives us an empty suit to run against, which is likely, then things can look pretty good.
If not, then I go back to drinking and eating ribs until the heart attack gets me.
Calouste
For many in Washington, it doesn’t take any effort at all to look stupid.
jwb
@DickSpudCouchPotatoDetective: I’m with Corner Stone here, unemployment won’t be going down in 2012. The stimulus in this tax bill may have bring unemployment down a bit in 2011, though I doubt it, given what’s going on in terms of cutting at the local and state level. In any case, the stimulative portion of the bill disappears at the beginning of 2012, so unemployment is likely to be heading up all through spring and summer of 2012. If that scenario plays out, it’s going to be a very tough slog for Obama in 2012, even if he’s running against Sarah Princess.
lol
Barack Obama is literally the most homophobic President the United States has ever had. The way he’s dragged out repealing DADT is shameful. Bill Clinton would’ve taken care of this his first year in office, no problem.
General Stuck
@lol:
Yep, and Rick Warren didn’t speak at Clinton’s inauguration. So there is that, also too.
DickSpudCouchPotatoDetective
@jwb:
Well as I said, that is in line with what we have been saying since inauguration day.
Unemployment down, Obama up. Unemployment up, Obama down.
All the rest is just sideshow to me. And Obama has said pretty much the same thing.
@lol:
Pretty weak spooftroll there, amigo. Unless that was supposed to be a joke, in which case … pretty weak joke.
lol
@DickSpudCouchPotatoDetective:
The truth is that Clinton literally took care of DADT his first year in office.
Literally.
Corner Stone
@lol: We’re sure you think you have a point with this satire.
But you don’t.
lol
@Corner Stone:
The point would be that the Professional Left’s recent re-idolization of Bill Clinton because he’s saying the right stuff now is ironic in light of the fact they’re simultaneously berating Obama for not overturning his policies fast enough.
Corner Stone
@lol: Yes. As I said. We’re sure you think you have a point.
DickSpudCouchPotatoDetective
@lol:
Yes, yes of course. Point, er, taken.
jcricket
The reality is that we would have lost seats in this last election no matter what (structural forces, etc). But we lost so badly because the electorate changed (not in our favor).
If the electorate changes “back” to 2008 make-up, Obama has a good chance no matter what.
Anyhoo, DADT is dead, sooner or later. The only question is if Republicans rat-fuck themselves the way they have on every other minority rights issue. Not only losing most of the “minority” in question, but anyone in another minority group who sees that minority as an ally in their own struggles.
It’s not a coincidence that despite generally being well off, Jews vote 80% Democratic. And unless Republicans change their ways, you’ll say the same for every other religious or racial minority in the next decade.
So while tools like Manchin piss me off, I can’t help but rub my hands with a little glee when I think about the Republicans continually fucking over their long-term prospects.