Ezra thinks that Democrats should not antagonize Republicans over splitting the Bush tax cuts when we will need them to pass unemployment insurance and lift the debt ceiling.
Really?
Ezra watches DC a lot closer than I do. He lives there and by now he’s interviewed people whom I just know as pixels on a phosphor screen LCD TV. So maybe I’m wrong about this. Still, it seems to me that Democrats would be crazy not to go with the bird in the hand every single time. Would Dems really get more cooperation if they play nice? By now everyone can see that Republicans don’t negotiate in good faith. If you take away the tax cut issue because you need their help with something, they’ll hold some other issue hostage instead. When they needed an excuse to bail on Obama’s bipartisan brunch they made one up out of thin air. Pretty much the only thing they want is to hit Democrats with one bitch slap after another. If unemployment insurance runs out, so what? Poor people vote Democratic and a double dip will mostly hurt Obama.
The right strategy for Democrats right now is to win any damn vote they can while they still have a coin in the machine.
***Update***
Apologies to Ezra, whose post I read wrong. Ezra was actually saying that Democrats may be better advised to shelve the tax cuts until they get more important things done first. In theory that seems like a pretty good idea. The cuts’ expiration date gives Democrats substantial negotiating leverage. It also inverts the usual dynamic where Republicans hold some important thing hostage and Democrats get blamed if the hostage dies. On the other hand, the plan assumes that anyone will seriously think that Democrats would let the cuts expire if they don’t get their way. Not only do I seriously doubt that (insert Will Rogers quote here), but I would expect instant defections if Reid or Pelosi even brought the strategy up in public.
ThresherK
There’s a Not Antagonize Republicans setting on this thing? Since when?
And don’t forget “Excessive Partisanship”: A media term for Democrats talking about taking their own side in a fight.
earlofscruggs
The democrat party has no right to be in any kind of power. they sold themselves out when they went marxist with FDR. they only get elected through illegal immigrants’ vote fraud. real americans who love freedom would never vote democrat. let’s stand up for the wealth creators and put america first!
Napoleon
Sad to say but I think Ezra has been incorporated into the DC collective hive mind.
Anyone who says that is not connected to reality and isn’t worth listening to. I have seriously thought of dropping him from my daily reads.
On top of that if the entire Bush tax cuts are renewed it is effectively the same as repealing the New Deal and Great Society. It will so cripple the nations finances as to make it a forgone conclusion that those programs will be gutted.
Bulworth
Also, too, we could use a tagline titled “Time To Call Another Deficit Commission”. Or something like it.
http://www.eschatonblog.com/2010/11/changing-subject.html
morzer
The right strategy for Democrats is to pick up their baseball bats and take their best swing at the rotten leering pumpkin that sits atop Boehner’s greasy thick neck.
A Duck
Napoleon: Yep, Ezra’s been assimilated. The only thing left is the slow, steady (and sad) slide into High Broderism.
fourlegsgood
Agreed – spot on. rethugs don’t care about policy, they just care about hurting dems.
TBogg
Ezra seems to think it is impossible to extend unemployment benefits while at the same time letting the upper end tax rates increase like they are scheduled to do. How does he support that?
He doesn’t.
blondie
Ezra, where have you been the past two years?
The Republicans could not be more “antagonized” or oppositional to Obama and the Democratic goals.
Now is the time to stand strong against the continuation of W’s tax cuts for the wealthy. Even if the Dems. cave on that issue, they aren’t going to get Rep. cooperation on the unemployment tax or debt ceiling issues. Obama has to bully pulpit those issues like Clinton did with the frozen goverment in the 90s.
sherifffruitfly
Sounds like Ezra needs a primer on Negotiating With Republicans:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bhDMGru7ps
Omnes Omnibus
This scruggs-troll is better than some of the recent ones. I wonder if it has staying power.
Culture of Truth
It’s not merely about winning, it’s about framing.
The tax cuts are a unique opportunity in that they will expire if no action is taken, and the GOP has for their own reason decided to stake out a very unpopular position.
The Dems can retain tax cuts for the middle class, reject cuts for the very rich, and watch the GOP squirm come January. Anyway, Dems just lost an election and now have an opportunity they will likely not get again to recast the differences between the parties.
LGRooney
@Napoleon:
Which has been the point of starve the beast all along. They know repealing the New Deal won’t fly as a political matter so the back door approach is to necessitate it through policy.
Lost Left Coaster
I don’t read Ezra Klein anymore. More and more he is an inside-the-beltway spouter of conventional wisdom.
Brian S (formerly Incertus)
How long have we been told that we’re in a constant election cycle? This is when you start hitting Republicans, even before they’ve taken the majority in the House (though they’re claiming it). The vote on raising the debt ceiling and unemployment insurance should be harder on Republicans than Democrats. Make them sweat it.
Tim F.
@Omnes Omnibus: Are you kidding? At least an iphone app that cuts ‘n pastes from Limbaugh would have decent grammar. A great troll learns the weaknesses of individual commenters and divides them against each other. A decent troll at least sows confusion about the topic at hand. This guy can’t even handle that.
Culture of Truth
“The politics of the debt ceiling are tough, and since Democrats both lost the last election and control most of the government, they’ll get blamed.”
I can’t make sense of this.
Yossarian
You guys are missing Ezra’s point here.
He’s not worried about the feelings of the Republicans, or demonstrating good faith with them, or any of that crap.
He’s saying that, given the GOP will have real power in the next session and can hold other necessary priorities completely hostage, the Dems should use their power in the lame-duck to push on unemployment benefits and/or the debt ceiling, not on letting the Bush tax cuts expire.
His point is that since Dems have real power for a limited amount of remaining time, they should use that power on the debt ceiling and UI. You can agree or disagree with him on this, but he’s arguing that the tax cuts are less IMPORTANT than the debt ceiling and unemployment benefits, not that antagonizing the Republicans is something to be avoided.
Lost Left Coaster
@Omnes Omnibus:
Wait, that was for real? That troll comment up there was so over-the-top that I assumed it was a joke. But you really can’t satirize these people, can you?
suzanne
I’m not into Ezra as much anymore, either. Which is too bad, ’cause he’s kind of hot. I can’t fantasize about him anymore now that he’s all boring.
Ezra
I don’t think this gets my point quite right: It’s not that Dems shouldn’t antagonize Republicans so they can get voluntary cooperation later. It’s that Democrats should refuse to pass these tax cuts unless they get these other things passed now. They should use the tax cuts as a hostage, not a good-will gesture.
CaffinatedOne
I generally like Ezra’s posts, but he’s definitely a policy wonk and not a political wonk.
Maude
@Tim F.:
We’ve had some sadly deficient trolls here.
Maybe we could have Troll Rules and some pointers once in a while. We could pracitce Trollary 101.
MBunge
@Culture of Truth: It’s not merely about winning, it’s about framing.
That’s true of taxes and unemployment benefits. The debt limit is not about winning or framing, it’s about preventing another global financial catastrophe and possibly damaging the U.S. economy in a permanent way. When a crazy person has a gun at your head, you pretty much have to give them what they want.
Mike
Harry_the_Hop
@Yossarian: Hurray, someone who actually read the linked article!
ac
Never never never give anything up unilaterally. You get zero credit for doing so, even if your negotiating partners aren’t recalcitrant pricks — which we all know the Reps are.
Corner Stone
@Ezra:
That was how I remembered it from when of your recent interviews on MSNBC.
Dave L
Yossarian –
Even if I stipulate that your version is correct, why on earth should the Democrats be begging the GOP for votes on unemployment insurance? I’d be daring them to vote against it! Let them try to defend THAT.
Omnes Omnibus
@Tim F.: I said it is better than some of the recent ones. I did not say it was good. There has been a real downturn in the troll quality recently such that this one seemed to me to be an improvement.
Corner Stone
Tim F and Omnes,
I’m not familiar with any of earlofscruggs’ other work, but I’m about 90% sure this was midlevel snark and not straight.
Omnes Omnibus
@Corner Stone: That is a possibility as well.
Barkley G
I endorse this post whole heartedly
david mizner
That’s one of Ezra’s big problems:
Speaking of bipartisanshipitis, I was reminded of this today, when Obama wanted to get 80 votes for the stimulus!
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0109/17039.html
Napoleon
@Yossarian:
Then he is an idiot if that is what he is arguing.
Making sure the tax cuts are not extended are worth shutting the government down for the next 2 years.
A Duck
Omnes Omnibus: That is because both the operative definition of troll has morphed into ‘someone who says something I don’t like or agree with’ and because all of the best BJ trolls were actually spoofs (most of whom were DougJ).
matt
@Ezra:
Works for me if we then shoot the hostage anyway.
Corner Stone
@A Duck:
I think a little piece of DougJ’s soul died when he became a front pager.
trollhattan
@Omnes Omnibus:
I vote spoof. The unthoughts are organized a little too tidily and there’s the ironic lack of random capitalization.
Forcing votes on the middle class tax cut, arms control, unemployment benefits…all good strategies for forcing Republican hands in the public eye.
Culture of Truth
Ok, now I’m a little clearer. Personally I would be leery of negotiating on the debt ceiling. Once you start, as people have observed, it’s like having a gun to your head.
As far as the other issues, those are good points, but the middle class tax cut is as much a Dem as a GOP issue, now, so the only hostage they have left is tax cuts for the rich.
windshouter
To defend Ezra a bit, what matters for Democrats the most now is whatever get the economy most improved by 2012. So, you should package whatever you think will do that into legislation the Republicans can’t vote against. Maybe tax cuts provide a vehicle to do that.
Lets just say that the Democrats put up two bills side by side.
First, is the Obama tax cuts. Second is the bipartisan new stimulus act which contains a two year extension of other tax cuts, a two year increase in the debt ceiling, a 2 year extension of unemployment benefits and some nominal funding some something that’s politically defensible , stimulates the economy and costs less than the tax extensions. So aid to the poor stimulates the economy but we aren’t willing to defend it, so that’s out. Clean energy research sounds to Democratic. You’d need something like expanding the infrastructure bank. You get votes on both, but you have to do it in order. The key is to make the Republicans who want to tax cuts vote for stimulus and then defend rich only tax cuts again just before a 2012 election. Republicans don’t have to agree or like it, but they have to be willing to vote against tax cuts they want.
CaffinatedOne
First, I don’t suspect that the people who own and fund the republicans are actually interested in blowing up the place, so they’ll back down on playing roulette with the debt ceiling. More generally, a debate where republicans are willing to have the country default on it’s obligations all to get more tax cuts for the rich is one that I’d be willing to have. Very little would highlight their priorities more than that.
blondie
How about pushing through the Democratic position on all three while we can and making the Republicans take action later to:
(1) give “new” tax cuts to the rich
(2) take away people’s unemployment
(3) freeze the government
Make the Republicans show their true colors.
Yossarian
Um, guys, the Repubs have already killed extending unemployment benefits, defended that decision in public, and were so damaged by that stand that they won the House of Representatives.
People are way too in love with “the frame” and how Democrats can push on it. The point here is that Dems need to win votes on crucial policy priorities NOW, while they still can. Ezra’s point is simply that UI benefits and the debt ceiling are more crucial than the Bush tax cuts.
And I’m not sure he’s wrong. I’m pretty sure if the GOP refused to raise the debt limit and caused a fiscal crisis, people would still look to Obama as the reason why and the GOP would still paint themselves as responsible fiscal stewards because of their refusal to “raise the debt limit.” Read that phrase again — does it look good to vote for something called “raising the debt limit?” The GOP wins the frame on this one, and I’m quite sure they’re willing to put the country through the pain necessary to do so.
LGRooney
Way to kill the thread, Ezra!
Our hyperbolic reaction to not linking and actually reading the thing was providing some entertaining outlet for our angst. Now, we have to wait for the next thread!
MattR
@Yossarian: I am not disagreeing with you. But at the same time I am not convinced it is a good strategy largely because I have seen nothing to indicate that the Republicans would be willing to compromise in this fashion. What is much more likely is that they will use the offer as proof that Democrats are not truly opposed to extending the Bush tax cuts and will use that as a cudgel until the Democrats extend the Bush tax cuts for all Americans in a standalone bill. (Remember these are the same people who killed benefits for 9/11 first responders because they were upset about procedural issues)
Culture of Truth
“People are way too in love with “the frame” ….
“The GOP wins the frame on this one”
Sorry, I couldn’t help it
BTD
@Ezra:
They should pass them and have the President veto them.
But you seem to be proposing a tradeoff of tax cuts for the ruich for UI benefits and raising the debt ceiling.
That is a terrible bargain imo.
First, why should Denms raise the debt ceiling at all? Leave it for the GOP to do in the next Congress. Do you really think they’d shut down the government in the second month of the new House? No way they would do it.
Second, I think the price is too steep for extending UI benefits, extend the tax cuts for the rich now and it is tantamount to making them permanent.
And in this climate, that $700 billion will come out of programs that progressives like, say out of Medicaid expansion called for in ACA.
Your position makes no sense to me.
eemom
amazing how Ezra can come along and clarify his point, and everyone continues to just blather on as though they didn’t hear him.
Also, this:
is just another example of the self-fulfilling defeatist shit that has become so very frequent and tiresome on this blog. Translation: we bitch and moan all the time about WHY WON’T the Democrats get a spine, and everything would be so much better, if they’d only get a fucking SPINE — and then, when someone suggests how they might actually, you know, GET a spine, the response is, Naw, that’ll never happen.
Culture of Truth
I’m not disagreeing with Yoss or Ezra either, btw. I think one reason DC is focused on the tax cuts is that they expire at the end of the year – although perhaps they should be allowed to.
Trinity
His work at The American Prospect was stellar.
Brian S (formerly Incertus)
Personally, I’m about at the point where I’m willing to say that all the tax cuts, even the middle-class ones, need to go. Call their bluff. If we’re serious about reducing the deficit, then we need to raise revenue, and raising taxes (or allowing tax cuts to expire) does that. I’d rather have that happen than let the rich get away with even more, and I think that if you make it that sort of binary choice, you’ll get a lot of public pressure to shithammer the wealthy.
Mumphrey
That guy can’t be real. He wrote, “…illegal immigrants’ vote fraud.” Anybody who knows how to use apostrophes right can’t be a real troll…
Corner Stone
@LGRooney:
IMO, it’s more fun to slag the pop-in guest star after s/he shows up.
And I agree with suzanne. It’s hard for me to fantasize about Ezra nowadays too.
Yossarian
@Culture of Truth: No, it’s a good point, one that I thought of as I was writing the post. I think people are way too in love with “the frame” generally.
But in certain cases, it really does matter, and progressives do themselves no favors if they don’t recognize where what they see as a winning frame is actually a losing frame from the perspective of the country’s mood. I think the debt limit is a losing issue for the Dems politically even if it’s hugely necessary on substance, and I’m not even sure that a fight over unemployment benefits works for us right now, either. With a massive deficit and an allergy to anything that looks like redistribution, I think a lot of Americans are perfectly willing to throw the umemployed overboard if they think something is being removed from their own pockets.
Sentient Puddle
@eemom:
This, and I’m also amazed at how many morons we have here who are all “I can’t stand reading Ezra anymore!” or some shit. Who says epistemic closure only affects the right?
danimal
@LGRooney:
Don’t dare get in the way of a good Dem angst display.
Angst > Winning
Corner Stone
@Brian S (formerly Incertus): I say Truman era levels. Top rate of 90%.
Let’s do this damn thing!
BTD
@eemom:
I understood his point, His position is still untenable.
First, it overestimates the value to Dems of raising the debt ceiling now. The GOP will not want to shut down the government in February. that is Ezra’s first mistake – placing value in raising the debt ceiling now for Dems.
His second mistake is in believing that cutting taxes for the rich will have no fiscal impact. That is wrong, imo. Indeed, to put a point on it – I think it could doom an essential part of ACA, the expansion of Medicaid.
Would Ezra accept tax cuts for the rich if it meant cutting Medicaid expansion? That’s a question I would like him to answer.
LGRooney
@danimal:
We’re still talking about politics, right?
Culture of Truth
I’m trying to parse this:
“The politics of the debt ceiling are tough, and since Democrats both lost the last election and control most of the government, they’ll get blamed.”
I think this means it doens’t look good to argue for borrowing more money, even though it’s necessary.
“and since Democrats both lost the last election and control most of the government, they’ll get blamed.”
Blamed for what? For raising the debt ceiling — or for not raising it and the ensuing crisis? Or both?
Culture of Truth
“Democrats shouldn’t vote with Republicans to extend the tax cuts — which is, of course, the only way the tax cuts can be extended — unless Republicans will simultaneously vote with them to extend UI and lift the debt ceiling.”
Sounds like Dems should hold out for being blamed for something unpopular in exchange for giving Republicans something which will make them popular but is destructive in the long term.
Call me skeptical.
El Cid
@Lost Left Coaster: Newt Gingrich just declared he was launching a project to roll back all the soshullism Democrats and liberals have imposed on this country ever since FDR.
danimal
@LGRooney: Yes, still talking about politics. I got pilloried yesterday for suggesting that Dems should quit their bitching and put their efforts into actually winning political fights like DADT repeal and tax cut policy.
Whining about betrayal appears to be highly valued around here.
Yossarian
“The GOP will not want to shut down the government in February.”
Boy, I wish I shared your confidence. I think a good number of them are not only willing to shut it down, but are EAGER to do so.
Culture of Truth
@Yossarian: I agree with you. I don’t think UI or debt extension are particularly popular. But Ezra wants those to be the Dems negotiating pillars. It almost like when George Costanza held out for less money.
I think ‘framing’ can be overrated, but the tax cut issue is staring everyone in the face. I also don’t think cuts for the rich is as popular as the GOP thinks, but in any case, parties need to stand for something, and this is a good as it’s going to get for Dems.
Brian S (formerly Incertus)
@Yossarian: I agree. There are a bunch of them practically frothing at the mouth for it, convinced that Gingrich’s failure was that he caved.
Sentient Puddle
@Culture of Truth:
Both. The cons for raising the debt ceiling are clear enough. The cons for not raising it are more subtle. The short-term fix for getting the budget in order would be furloughs of government employees, which would be a sort of government shutdown, but not as overt (government brownout, maybe?).
But me, I don’t think the politics are that hard. As a matter of policy and optics, raising the ceiling is far preferable. Republicans would whine about the debt, but nobody really cares about that, while everyone cares about the economy sucking.
BTD
@Yossarian:
I hope we find out.
I doubt we will.
Dems will cave now.
Yossarian
But he wants them to be the pillars because they’re really, really important, not because they’re popular. And because this may be the Dems’ only chance at getting them through. I’m not sure I’m willing to give them up so we can either win the frame on tax cuts, or win on the actual tax cuts themselves.
Yossarian
BTD, it’s hardly a “cave” if you win on substance.
LGRooney
@danimal: That’s why I want Pelosi in charge of the caucus. She doesn’t bitch and moan, she gets the job done. Which is the reason, of course, the right (inside and outside the GOP) has so demonized her.
New motto: When life gives you lemonade, cry that you wanted lemons!
Just Some Fuckhead
@Brian S (formerly Incertus):
There is no reason for extending them and plenty of reasons to let them expire. If it’s really important to the majority of middle class Americans that we run up an unsustainable debt so they can pay less taxes, let ’em vote more Republicans into office in 2 years. After all, that is the Republican platform.
LGRooney
@Yossarian: But not in February (if I understood the response correctly). They need to froth their way up to it. They’ll start some investigations, make sure they are top news at all the cable networks and Kaplan, and secretly scupper any chance of a budget compromise. Then, when the shutdown is inevitable, blame it on the WH for wanting to shut down the investigations.
BTD
@Yossarian:
We have different definitions of winning I think.
No tax cuts for the rich is the biggest win Dems can achieve imo.
Raising the debt ceiling NOW is a loss.
Extending UI benefits is certainly a win. But I think it can and should be achieved without giving tax cuts to the rich.
Culture of Truth
I get it. Ezra makes a very solid point.
The real danger is not that the GOP won’t vote to raise the debt ceiling. Look at Boehner’s comments this week. They will.
The danger is they will (sounding very reasonable) extract spending cut concessions while they threaten not to do it. So it’s best not to let them have the issue to play with.
BTD
@Culture of Truth:
That is silly. The GOP will control the House for the next 2 years. They do not need the “debt ceiling” issue to extract spending cuts. They can write a budget that does that.
This makes no sense.
Culture of Truth
@BTD: I don’t speak for Ezra, but I believe that is what he is saying.
I would also add that the GOP will not control the Senate or White House for the next 2 years, two entities with a role to play in spending by the U.S. federal government.
suzanne
@LGRooney:
LOL. I have to say, I read the linked article, and I can see how Tim F. came to his conclusion. I’m glad Ezra came to clarify.
I don’t know about everyone else, but I ***loved*** reading Ezra when he used phrases like, “fuck him with a spiky, acid-tipped dick”. SWOON. I still read him (once a week or so), ’cause he’s smart, but he’s nowhere near as engaging to read as he used to be. What can I say? The voice in his writing is necessarily muted, but I think that’s been a big loss.
BTD
@Culture of Truth:
The Republicans will have MORE power in the next 2 years, not less than they do now.
The tax cuts expire NOW. All Dems have to do is not pass new ones.
The idea that this is their maximum moment of power because of the “debt ceiling” is preposterous.
That seems to be the thesis you attribute to Ezra.
Culture of Truth
@BTD: No, I think Ezra is saying Dems should take advantage now of the GOP relative lack of power, and get rid of the debt issue so it doesn’t hurt them even further down the road. Or something.
As you can see from upthread I don’t agree, and even if I could be persuaded, Ezra put it so inartfully we are arguing over what he meant, which is a waste of time. I will let him speak for himself and I’ll speak for myself. Cheers.
BTD
@Culture of Truth:
Or something is right.
It is ridiculous.
danimal
There’s no reason to use Dem leverage to raise the debt limit. John Boehner will get the honor of seeing his coalition divide over the issue in February. No reason to let him off the hook now. Better to spend our leverage over a few fights we can win that will never see the light of day in a GOP House (DADT repeal, Obama tax cuts, etc).
John
Look, people.
Just fucking stop calling this “the expiration of the Bush tax cuts,” OK?
Bush signed into law a tax INCREASE that will take effect Jan. 1.
The only question we should be asking and answering is, do we and Republicans want to prevent the Bush tax HIKE with an Obama tax cut?
burnspbesq
Armando,
I think you’re a little off when you talk about Republicans shutting down the government in February.
I think Chait has this figured out. The Republicans are going to shut down the Government on 12/4.
http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-chait/79293/will-republicans-shut-down-the-government
Tsulagi
@Ezra:
Yeah, right. Because that has worked so well in the past, stay the course.
You telling me Dems in addition to making sure Olympia was comfy, her pillows fluffed and her tea delivered on demand during the 15 month HCR saga Dems weren’t also offering to support some R legislation in exchange for a few HCR votes? Support above and beyond the caves they made on HCR? And how many R votes did that net?
So yeah, spend the next two months fluffing Olympia and maybe give her ME sister some love too asking them pretty please to extend UI benefits and the debt ceiling offering extending, if not making permanent, 250+k tax cuts. It’s bound to be a wise use of time and pay dividends this time. Unlike the past. Because Rs surely now don’t connect past intransigence as helping their midterm results.
Lawnguylander
@Yossarian: @Harry_the_Hop: @LGRooney:
Being expected to read the linked article before criticizing it when there’s a pose to strike is theft!
@Napoleon:
Really? You’d be ok with cutting off people’s SS and UI checks just to deny rich people their tax cuts. That’s very brave of you.
I don’t know if the Republicans would really shut down the government but I lean towards yes. Norquist could be bluffing here but he wants them to and thinks they will. The GOP does the bidding of the people who back him and give him the power to have them by by the balls.
Brian S (formerly Incertus)
@BTD:
But they can’t pass it on their own. They don’t even have a majority in the Senate, much less the numbers required to beat a filibuster.
BTD
@Brian S (formerly Incertus):
So Dems fold now, when they have maximum leverage, but will stand firm later, when they have no leverage. Riiiight.
HyperIon
@Corner Stone:
I know a little piece of mine did.
HyperIon
@eemom:
Not really amazing IMO.
Remember what Just Some Fuckhead said last week: This is a snark site.
Besides as lawnguylander said: Being expected to read the linked article before criticizing it when there’s a pose to strike is theft!
Brian S (formerly Incertus)
@BTD: Who’s talking about folding? Do you even try to not be a supercilious jackass who doesn’t pay attention to what’s being said around you?
BTD
@Brian S (formerly Incertus):
Ezra is. Or rather he is talking about “trading” tax cuts for raising the debt ceiling.
That is a bad deal imo. YMMV. Call me supercilious if it makes you feel better.
Tom
The GOP are as trustworthy as the Taliban.