We’re so screwed. Bob Shrum just said Democrats will hold the House and Senate.
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by John Cole| 67 Comments
This post is in: Election 2010
We’re so screwed. Bob Shrum just said Democrats will hold the House and Senate.
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mistermix
Time to start drinking.
schrodinger's cat
May be he is right this time. Stopped clock and all…
Daddy-O
Very funny.
He isn’t CONSULTING a Democratic Presidential candidate…so he MIGHT be right. And everything I’ve seen leads me to believe losing either House will not happen. Losing SEATS…yes.
Hawes
Hey, as long as we’re not counting on his stategery to accomplish it, we might be OK.
Shrum’s not an idiot. He’s just really, really bad at running campaigns.
Daddy-O
@mistermix: “Time to start drinking.”
When is it NOT?
;-)
burnspbesq
Yes, but it’ll be OK David Brooks assures us that when the dust settles, policy wonks like Meg Whitman and Mitch Daniels will be setting the agenda for the Republican Party.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/01/opinion/01brooks.html?hp
Words fail me.
jibeaux
Look, all this situation needs is for Bill Kristol to assure that the R’s are going to win both.
Daddy-O
@jibeaux: Agreed. That’s the formula for re-balancing our national political karma.
p.a.
Maybe it is now us on the left who are in the ‘just clap louder’ camp.
All I can say is, if Shrum is correct and the teatard movement keeps the Dems in power, I may have to again believe in a deity of some sort. FSM be praised.
Of course, the meme from the midterms, no matter the result, will be ‘voters
refudrepudiate the left, Dems move right. Here’s Ben Nelson on what it all means.’ So fuck you after all, FSM.Mrs. Polly
I’m retiring under the piano with my decanter of sherry now. But what does Begala say? Should I bring the one- or three-liter?
JCT
@burnspbesq: I saw that as well. Bobo is a clown.
geg6
Man, you’re right, Cole.
The only person more wrong about everything than Bob Shrum is Bill Kristol.
Wait…has anyone asked Kristol what he thinks? I might get all hopey changey if he’s crowing about VICTORY!
MattF
This is just a news fart– noise, information content equals zero, nada, zilch, zero, nil, nothing… Not to restate the obvious or anything, but no one actually knows what’s going to happen.
schrodinger's cat
@burnspbesq: Shorter Brooks:
I iz in ur NYT shilling fur mah parteh
schrodinger's cat
@JCT: But atleast he is not chunky.
Mike in NC
Isn’t this guy really some sort of performance artist? Like the Democrat’s answer to Andy Kaufman? How else does he get work?
JoyceH
You know, I’m starting to think we will hang on to both the House and Senate. And here’s why. The GOP got a bad case of premature triumphalism and got a little too honest about what they planned to do with power once they got it back. They’ve been saying outright that other than investigating the Obama White House, they plan to accomplish NOTHING. The disillusioned left and middle are finally waking up to the fact that however much they’re disillusioned, the alternative would be much much worse.
So I think ‘our side’ will come out and vote. They may not be as insanely motivated as the ‘baggers, but we don’t have to be – there are more of us than there are of them.
What’s concerning me now is the aftermath of the election. Because the ‘baggers and the gun-toting flagwavers are as convinced as the GOP that they’re going to win. When they don’t win, they’ll immediately decide that the elections were stolen by the ghost of Acorn.
Which means it will be time for those Second Amendment remedies.
artem1s
the house is moot. the gop had no hope from the beginning, too many seats to pick up and the teabaggers killed any chance they had.
the governors’ races are what matter.
Earl Butz
When this happens, within one hour after polls close, you will start hearing howls about voter fraud.
How the teatardists will explain that since they put their nemesis, ACORN, out of business, I’m not sure. But they’ll find a way. That involves black people. And Mexicans. And gays. And Obama, of course.
Bella Q
I’m a (busy) progressive. I know because I just took the rumproast quiz. Sigh.
lamh31
Not to get too off topic, but this is what happens when you don’t have a President who’s approaching AARP-hood!
Can’t imagine Clinton being able to tap into the youth like this!
Obama aims to excite young voters at concert/rally
By ERICA WERNER
cat48
@JoyceH:
Acorn lives as long as foxnews exists. They still refer to it all the time like they are still cheating all white people.
Shrum also predicted that Obama would win a month ahead of time so maybe the curse is only good if he’s managing the campaign.
Bella Q
@JoyceH: That’s a good point. There are going to be some seriously pissed off baggers after the votes are counted. And teabaggers have more guns than firebaggers, generally.
Omnes Omnibus
@cat48: So you are saying that, unlike Kristol who is wrong about everything, Shrum is merely wrong about everything in which he is personally involved?
Omnes Omnibus
@cat48: So you are saying that, unlike Kristol who is wrong about everything, Shrum is merely wrong about everything in which he is personally involved?
lonesomerobot
The good news is that he’s not actually involved in any campaigns… you know, helping democrats lose.
This could really play into our hands if we were prepared for it. The narrative has been constant throughout the summer and now everyone’s bought into it: republicans are supposed to win big. So if (when) it doesn’t come true — maybe Pelosi only hangs on to the gavel by a couple of votes — we can guess how the media will portray it, “Dems Dodge a Bullet,” “Democrats in Disarray, Only Hold House by Thin Margin”
But there’s a big opportunity for a major push back. Make the mainstream media have to answer why they bought into the wrong narrative, and how that directly relates to the public’s growing mistrust of them.
Make republicans answer why there was no landslide. Be ready to push back and make the story as it should be: Republicans in disarray.
But it only works if we win Nov 2 and are ready for Nov 3.
cat48
@Omnes Omnibus:
That’s the way it has worked in the past. He runs it, declares they will win or have won, and then they lose.
dmsilev
If memory serves, Shrum actually has a decent record in running Senate campaigns. It’s the overall national thing that he sucks at.
Speaking of Always Wrong, has Mark Penn made any predictions yet?
dms
Alwhite
Shrum is probably using an old trick – if you root around you will probably see he has made (or will make) several statements about the outcome of the election, none of them will match but one of them will be correct. Next year he will tout the correct quote to prove he knew all along.
stillnotking
The sooner you stop thinking of Democrats as “we”, the better off everyone will be.
Napoleon
@lamh31:
For the record, I am 4 months older then Obama and if my friends are any indication I am only 6 months from receiving my invite to join AARP.
James E. Powell
@lamh31:
My first reaction was to expect scary photos & screaming headlines of the president at a hip hop concert.
My second reaction was to wonder, just wonder, what would happen if every single one of those gen44 voters got on the effing facebooks and made it a cool thing to get out and vote in the midterms.
I think Obama hit every note perfectly in his speech to the college kids. What would be nice would be if every living Democrat picked up the tune and repeated it every day.
NonyNony
@lonesomerobot:
Perhaps this is actually why he’s predicting victory.
danimal
Shrum has a 50% chance of being right on this one. We can only be sure of his predictions if he’s in charge of the campaign.
Kryptik
Like I didn’t have more to be worried about. This guy is a jinx.
Dr. Squid
In all fairness, he’s only predicting this. If he were running the campaign, I’d probably be downing a bottle of Jack. At 10 am.
Comrade Javamanphil
@dmsilev: No predictions but he does have some unexpected and totally not what you would expect advice for how the democrats can hold the house.
Punchy
Shrum is so wrong about everything, now I’m worried we’re going to lose the Presidency, too, in these elections…
Kryptik
@Comrade Javamanphil:
Hahahahahahahahahashut the fuck up, Mark Penn. Please.
EDIT: Oh sweet Green Jesus, I made the mistake of reading the comments there. What fuck Democrats are they seeing, acting like they’re all psycho soshulists, INCLUDING Mark Penn himself?
Mike from Philly
In case you haven’t been keeping up with current events, we’ve been getting our ASSES KICKED OUT THERE!
Omnes Omnibus
@Kryptik: I read the first three or four comments. Bad mistake, so I stopped.
cat48
Ok, Bill Kristol is a go, too; so we may be ok.
—William Kristol
uila
Cole: It’s readin’ right, man!
Shrum: But that would mean the republicans are in the room…
Tunch: Check the vents…
Mowgli
@Mike from Philly- glad someone else picked up on the Aliens meme.
If the GOP takes over the House, I think it’s time to dust off and nuke Washington DC from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure.
Kryptik
@cat48:
Well, that’s a relief. I’m sure Kristol Balls are potent enough fail to counteract the Shrumpback.
ChrisB
@James E. Powell:
So, I never do this, but I went to Drudge just to see and there it was at the top of the page: “HIP HOP BARACK.”
And it was a topic of conversation on Morning Joe this morning with Scarborough talking sarcastically about how Obama’s appearance with a rap group was just the thing to capture independent voters.
Bob L
@burnspbesq:
I read these words and they don’t make sense. I think OMG, I just had a stroke! Then I see “David Brooks says…” and it all comes clear.
Trinity
OT but this is HILARIOUS!….MayorEmanuel on Twitter.
Kryptik
@ChrisB:
The only thing missing is a screamer-like graphic shouting ‘BOOGIE BOOGIE BOOGIE, SCARY BROWN FOLk, BOOGIE BOOGIE BOOGIE!’. You know, to punctuate the fact that Obama is, in fact, black, and therefore ‘out of touch’ with the rest of America or some dumb shit like that.
someguy
I assure you, there are no Republican tanks at the gates of Washington.
arguingwithsignposts
@lamh31:
I am surprised nobody has picked up on the obvious yet. Our old troll Brick Oven Bill has a new gig! And apparently, he’s fighting for the Dems. Who knew?
arguingwithsignposts
@Trinity:
That led me to this apparently-serious Bachmann sycophant web site fail: http://www.bachmannforspeaker.com/
FlipYrWhig
@ChrisB:
Right, because, as everyone knows, rap in no way appeals to white people from ages 6-45. That’s the reason why rap stars so seldom appear in commercials for mainstream products like soda, deodorant, cars, credit cards, and computers.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@JoyceH:
If the Dems hang on and do better than the conventional wisdom is predicting, it will because their base and the indys that they manage to reach turned to them very late in the election cycle, the late timing coming as a consequence of them not paying any attention at all to political news until the very last minute right before the election. And given how toxic our media have been lately, can you honestly say that you blame anybody (who isn’t a politics junkie) from doing precisely that? Who wants to have a root-canal job done on them every damn day of the year, when you can put it off for 2 years and then get the pain over with in about a week or so? That’s what happens when the press goes Marathon Man on our sorry asses.
Kryptik
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ:
Seriously. Just trying to wade through this shit has literally left me with temples throbbing, like the sheer rage and helplessness was building up brain pressure.
eric
@FlipYrWhig: AND…I may be wrong, but dont young voters and non-voters grow up to be older voters? wouldnt want to get them in to the fold early now…..
Fear of a black mother-effing planet is all this noise be.
Linda Featheringill
@Daddy-O:
DSCC says on their website that 15 seats are in play and the Republicans have to win 10 of those to gain a majority. So the Democrats have to win only 6 of them to hold onto their majority.
If we sit down and do nothing, the Dems will definitely loose both houses. But we have only begun to fight. And a month is a long time in an election. A lot can happen.
khead
17 days? Hey man, I don’t want to rain on your parade but we’re not gonna last 17 hours….
Linda Featheringill
@JoyceH:
I hope you are wrong and you probably hope so, too.
But, like you, I have wondered about this. A lot of those folks seem to really, really believe that they are going to win this election. Electoral disappointment is a real bitch [as we all know] and I am not sure how well some of these fragile and brittle people are going to adjust.
Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people)
@ChrisB: Hmm. I wonder what he makes of this Jimmy Fallon and Justin Timberlake vid. Especially the shot of the audience enjoying it.
General Stuck
I got a snark, Cole got a snark, Khead over there, he got a snark. Ever body got a snark. And that is the way it should be.
Binzinerator
@General Stuck: I think you just jumped the snark, dude.
teejay
Seriously JC, you need to think about stand-up.
Mo Macarbie
Haven’t seen the O Man’s rhymes, but they must be better than this.
dave
Dick Morris says a 100 seat victory is plausible.
http://mediamatters.org/blog/201009270050
How did that Condi vs. Hillary presidential race ever turn out?
DFH no.6
Hate to be the one farting in church and all, but JC’s clever Bill Paxton-in-Aliens quote (and thanks to uila @43 and khead @ 58 for playing along) has it about right, I’m afraid, and you know how that worked out for Bill (and most of the rest).
I’m helping on my local Blue Dog Rep’s campaign (as I did for the same guy the previous 2 elections, which he won) and it’s more than an uphill climb this time. I’m getting way less positive responses than I did in ’08, and significantly less than ’06.
From my (limited) view, Republican voters in my district seem pretty excited about getting a Republican back in the seat, Independents are in “throw the bum out” mode, and the Democrats are, it has to be said, pretty much demoralized.
It’s the exact opposite vibe from 2008.
Delta
Irresistable force Bob Shrum meets immovable object Bill Kristol:
“It looks as if 2010 will be a bigger electoral landslide than 1994, and more significant as well. But the true significance of 2010 will be to lay the groundwork for an even bigger victory in 2012—a victory that would allow President Obama to follow the example of so many of his senior staff, and depart the White House sooner than he once expected.”
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/democrats-melt-down
I guess these means the real result will of the 2010 election will be an explosion of epic proportions which will result in a dissolution of the union.