Democratic Senate candidate Lee Fisher faces a daunting 9-to-1 disadvantage in fundraising in his campaign against Republican Rob Portman in Ohio and has endured unexpected staff turnover, developments that have spread concern among national party leaders about his ability to remain competitive in the race. Fisher, the state’s lieutenant governor, recently hired his third campaign manager while his campaign spokesman and researcher quit.
The Democratic Party’s massive political machine in Ohio could help Fisher with $3 million raised during the last 40 days to help statewide candidates. Organized labor has long played a role in the state and has opened political offices in Columbus, Cleveland and Cincinnati. And Obama’s political arm, Organizing for America, never truly shut down after the 2008 race and continues to communicate with supporters who helped Obama carry the state with 52 percent of the vote. The state party, the largest in the nation, has more than 206 paid staffers working for Democrats. The Ohio Democratic Party has taken over the statewide voter turnout and political aspects of the campaigns, including Gov. Ted Strickland’s bid for re-election and Fisher’s Senate run.
It’s early for individual races, but I had an organizing meeting at my house last night, so I’ll translate this into how the “massive political machine” looks from the ground, right now.
I’m in a “red” Ohio county. We have about 15 local Democrats who are members of the State Party and reliably volunteer at this point in any cycle. I call those 15 people, and we meet at my house. We invite the paid organizer and he or she tells us the Master Plan, and then we tell him or her how we plan to customize it to our county.
This year the Ohio Democratic Party is running a “coordinated campaign”. That means all of the grass roots planning and work for every statewide candidate will run through the state Party. Lee Fisher will be the main beneficiary of this approach, because he seems to have some campaign issues.
Last night, 11 of the 15 showed up, but we lost two from 2008 (one moved to Texas and the other got a paid position with Sherrod Brown). That’s a good turnout.
The 11 state Party members will then contact the people they’ve personally worked with in the past, and essentially form “teams”, and that’s where we start.
Some points of comparison: In 2006, the Ohio Democratic Party had 33 paid organizers in the state. In 2008, the Obama campaign had 300+ paid organizers. In 2010, the Ohio Democratic Party has 105 paid organizers.
In 2006, we had 25 active county volunteers. In 2008, we had 58 (that was an all-time high for us) and in 2010, we anticipate we’ll have 40, plus or minus.
I “poll” the local volunteers occasionally, and they put up with it because they’re very kind and patient people. I’m always surprised at the result, and last night was no exception. The single thing they are most pleased about re: Obama is that he is getting us out of Iraq on schedule. All eleven mentioned the Iraq draw-down. I was surprised by that, as it got virtually no media attention, and Democrats here run hawkish. Health care was next, with nine.
There is an OFA effort running alongside the Ohio Democratic Party effort, and that’s where the House races come in.
JenJen
Great piece, Kay.
The other night at work, I was chatting with a well-connected Dem friend of mine who also happens to be AG Richard Cordray’s campaign coordinator for Cincinnati, Dayton and southwestern Ohio. It made me a little ill to hear her flat-out say it, but I also trust her when she said Lee Fisher is in serious trubs.
matoko_chan
know hope. that is the one thing Obama actually can fix. he cant do much about the Econopalypse that Ate Americas Jobs. but we can GFTO of Iraq and Afghanistan. lets get out of Lebanon too. Why are we paying the Lebanese Army?
the war on Islam is unwinnable.
lets be honest, that is what it is. that is what Park51 revealed.
70% of americans are christians, 68% of americans oppose Park51.
:)
sal
Running it through the state party may be fine, but doesn’t sound too grassroots.
Linda Featheringill
Hello to a fellow Ohioan.
I live in the part of the state that is more friendly to Democrats but I do know that the Republican parts of the state are VERY REPUBLICAN. And rather strange. I sometimes think the people there are from another planet.
So this is a statement of respect for your efforts. It isn’t always easy to keep going when you are in the minority. You go, girl.
kay
@sal:
I was sort of making fun of the “massive political machine”.
It is grass roots, although I’ve come to hate that word because it’s meaningless, but we all live here and we’re all volunteers, and there’s nothing “massive” about it.
I always notice media use “machine” for Democrats. All GOP efforts, in contrast, are spontaneous, and joyful :)
Omnes Omnibus
@Linda Featheringill: I was in Columbus for 13 years. Ohio can be a weird state politically. I think Jen Brunner would have been a better candidate, but that is not who the voters picked.
JenJen
Oh, and apropos of nothing, just wanted to add that, knowing I’m a consumer of bloggy things, my well-connected Dem friend who stopped in at my workplace the other day asked me “So who is this Jane Hamsher?” in response to all the noise she’d been hearing about the “professional left.”
Just goes to show you that not everyone in “the base” reads blogs.
kay
@JenJen:
It’s true. Our little core group are older and only one of them reads political blogs. They followed health care on television. I’d be babbling on and on and they had no idea what the hell I was talking about.
They defy the “selfish baby boomer” meme, too, as all of them are (probably) baby boomers.
PeakVT
The Democratic Party’s massive political machine
A fine example of those lazy journalist phrases that drive me nuts. Throwing one in might seem like it spices up a piece, but it really just spreads ignorance
Micheline
@JenJen: JenJen,
When your well-connected Dem friend said that Fisher was in trouble, was she basing this on lack of enthusiasm on the part of Democrats in that particular area? Does she believe that Jennifer Brunner would have made a better candidate?
Bill Murray
@kay: well Broder still remembers the Tammany Hall Democratic-Republican (later abbreviated to Democratic) party machine
JenJen
@Micheline: She specifically said:
1. She was surprised Rob Portman’s inside polling was so strong outside of southwestern Ohio, where he’s better known
2. Portman is exceedingly well-funded, and Rove’s PAC plans to throw down a lot of $$ for ads in his post-Labor Day campaign rush
3. DSCC doesn’t seem to have confidence in Fisher’s ability to pull out a victory, so there’s not a lot of momentum behind nationally-funding Fisher’s campaign against Portman
4. Although I strongly disagree, she says Fisher’s camp doesn’t plan to run against Portman as though he were George W. Bush
5. She doesn’t believe Brunner would’ve been a better candidate. She and I disagree on this issue. :-)
ETA: For those outside of southwestern Ohio, Portman and his family used to own The Golden Lamb restaurant group, and their flagship restaurant was the historic Golden Lamb in Lebanon, Ohio. Lebanon hosted one of Sarah Palin’s biggest rallies during the 2008 campaign, as well as a huge 2004 rally for George W. Bush’s reelection. The water runs deep in this part of Ohio for Portman. I don’t understand for the life of me why anybody outside of this part of Ohio finds Portman (Bush’s former Trade Representative) so attractive, and I had anticipated him running a regional campaign focused on GOTV in the southern part of the state. I was apparently way off about that. National Republicans heart Rob Portman, and they’re going all in with the guy. He’s one of theirs, he’s in The Club. Seriously, he may as well be a surrogate for Bush himself.
kay
@Micheline:
JenJen can give you the inside scoop, but Brunner worked her ass off when she ran for Secretary of State. She was here, twice, to speak to maybe 25 people, and she lives 5 hours away. She basically lived in her car, riding around with her husband and two enormous dogs.
I don’t think it’s rocket science. Fisher doesn’t work as hard. That’s why he’s doing poorly.
Micheline
@JenJen:
Ah, I see. Thank you for the information.
JenJen
@kay: I adore Jennifer Brunner! Didn’t you feel kind of safe and comforted while she was our SoS? Worked my ass off on her senatorial primary campaign, but not as hard as she worked, you’re so right about that.
Fisher doesn’t work nearly as hard, you’re so right about that as well. But why isn’t he hitting Portman where it’s obvious, and easy? No excuses.
kay
@JenJen:
I stayed out of the primary, because I don’t think they’re all that different ideologically (although I don’t blame her for running Left: it was a natural move), and the Hillary/Obama thing was too fresh, but I agree.
She did a great job in a really difficult situation, with S of S, particularly when FOX was running sleaze about her 24/7. She was a common pleas judge. It must have been hard to keep her temper when the FOX morons were accusing her of dirty dealing in elections. Her husband specializes in election law. The two of them together know a hell of a lot about Ohio elections, and she’s passionate about clean elections. I don’t know how she did it.
Martin
Yeah, it’s 11 people until you bring in the millions of gay Muslim Black Panther ACORN union thugs that will knock down the nice white grandmothers trying to vote and force illegal immigrants to vote to raise taxes and confiscate guns on their way to delivering their terror anchor babies, though half will never get there because you’ll force them to get abortions at Planned Parenthood instead.
kay
@Martin:
Funny, Martin. I took pictures, which I never do, and I was going to post them, with permission, because you-all like pictures, but then I chickened out. I don’t want these folks….revealed. Countertops, and all.
I spent 45 minutes with the Apple photo program, however, screwing around with three photos. I had never opened it before. I may start taking pictures. It was fun.
Linda Featheringill
I think the media might refer to “machines” for the Democrats because we are willing to organize. Of course, when the Dems organize, we agree to cooperate. When the Republicans organize, they set up a chain of command.
So if a group of Republicans haven’t agreed about who to take orders from, I guess they aren’t organized and don’t have a machine. :-)
Of course, we know that really and truly unorganized, spontaneous grassroot eruptions don’t really decide elections, no matter how romantic it sounds and how much the members of the press might like it.
Sharl
@JenJen: Ah, the historic Golden Lamb Inn of Lebanon, OH. My fifth grade teacher took our class there on a field trip waaay back in the 60s. Kind of an unconventional trip, but an inexpensive trip, and just a short bus ride from Dayton; probably* a nice day away from school as well.
I cannot remember most of my southwest Ohio landmarks any more; with the loss of Touchdown Jesus, does the Golden Lamb get to move up a notch on that list of worthies?
*honestly cannot remember hardly anything about it; I’m gonna assume that means it was an OK-or-slightly-better-than-OK experience.
JenJen
@Sharl: I too mourn the loss of Touchdown Jesus. ;-)
The Golden Lamb is actually a very good restaurant serving standard Colonial fare as well as Civil War-era fare, and while pricey, they do the food right. Many families (including mine) make it a tradition to visit The Golden Lamb for the Dickens Dinner offered during the Christmas Season. There’s a super-spendy gift shop and hotel attached that has historic qualities too, what with the famous visitors of the past (Edgar Allan Poe comes to mind). Lebanon is a charming city, and a real treasure, but you don’t get more winger than that part of Ohio, really. I’ll never forget the day Sarah Palin campaigned there, because so many people were so unreasonably excited about it. Kind of made me ill.
Hence Portman’s stranglehold here. I’ll never really understand it. What has he done for you lately, or ever, Ohio? Please think this through, would you, everyone?
JenJen
Not sure where Kay stands on this blog, but I find Plunderbund to be the best of the Ohio Politics Blogs, and anyone interested in our brand of weird-ass politics out here could learn a lot from reading the site. Daily visit for this Buckeye.
debbie
Central Ohio here. I listened to a local reporters’ roundtable recently (The Dispatch, Ohio Public Radio, etc.), and they discussed Fisher’s problems. Chief among them was that he wasn’t particularly liked by his subordinates, that employee turnover was pretty high, and that he had a reputation for being a very difficult boss. One of my brothers (very Republican) knows him personally and likes him, but will vote for Portman instead, seeing him as the “future” of the Republican Party. Well, at least it’s not Pat Tiberi being seen as the future.
Regarding massive political machines, I remember a Sunday NYT Magazine cover story on the Republican grassroots effort in Ohio. Joann Davidson was on the cover, and it was quite an operation. Definitely massive. I think it was for the 2004 election, but maybe it was 2000.
Also, Brunner was good, but I think a large part of that was that she was the Not-Blackwell Secretary of State. Plus, she pissed off the Republican Party endlessly and with a straight face.
Sharl
@JenJen: I’m not gonna get all depressed reading Plunderbird, am I?
I don’t know much about Portman’s power base, but if the situation is anything like OH-3 (my old CD), don’t discount the power of gerrymandering. The last time I researched da land of my yoot, while considering making some contributions, I looked at the district maps, and saw that orange golfing Oompa-Loompa’s district giving Dayton the finger, so to speak, with a tip of his district – OH-4? (too lazy to check) – curling in from the west and north and penetrating Dayton’s northern perimeter. Great way to dilute Democratic urban voting, and in the process help Mike Turner (R-good_li’l_wingnut_robot) hang onto OH-3. As long as Turner responds to constituents in minimal fashion and doesn’t screw up in any big way (e.g., keeps jobs & big programs from leaving Wright Pat AFB), he’ll keep that CD, if a recent chat with my dad – best characterized as a Reagan {former?} Democrat – is any indication.
It’s hard to remember now that OH-3 was represented for so long by Chuck Whalen, a Republican who was liberal even by Democratic Party standards (Newt’s predecessor Robert Michel basically said ‘good riddance’ when Whalen announced his retirement), and Tony Hall (D) after that.
I’ve been gone too long, but I wonder if significant Democratic progress in Ohio involves marching through Columbus first.
Sharl
@Sharl: And by Plunderbird, of course I meant Plunderbund. Yeah, that’s the ticket.
urbanmeemaw
Cincinnati resident here. I, too, have heard Fisher is not a nice person. Portman is like god here, of course. But thanks to our local media we only get the positive spin on him. I’ve noticed that both the Senate and gubernatorial races the Rethuglican theme is jobs, jobs jobs. No hints of race baiting or homobphobia. Yet. But I find that very interesting. It tells me that Rethugs are getting data that suggest focusing on the economy vs. fanning flames is the way to win elections. I’m waiting to hear Strickland’s and Fisher’s responses. I’m also curious to hear about Rethug themes in other states. Any insights would be appreciated.
debbie
Every other minute there’s a Republican Governors Committee ad with the tagline “Strickland didn’t get the jobs done.” I’ve yet to hear that anyone thinks these are good ads; they uniformly make fun of the plural use of “jobs.” I’ve noticed that in the 4-5 ads they’ve run, all but one of the actors are older (as in around 50) which may reflect the belief that Ohio’s demographic is skewing older.
As for homophobia (or at least perceived deviance), there was a youtube ad put up by Senate Republicans which showed Fisher sitting bare-chested in front of his computer late at night and insinuated he was behaving in an unseemly manner.
Woodrow L. Goode, IV
I worked on two of his campaigns, In both cases, I was assigned by my boss, who was unhappy with how the campaign was doing and wanted to see if I could help.
I couldn’t. “Landslide Lee” is a terrible candidate. He doesn’t work hard and there are many types of campaign activities that he doesn’t like to do– and won’t do unless forced.
He’s also a poor speaker, who has never figured out that the self-deprecating ironic humor and understatement that he likes to use (a) don’t work with voters who hear it and (b) read terribly in print.
He won one statewide race in three tries (piggybacking on Ted Strickland doesn’t count)… and he did that barely. There is absolutely no possibility that he will beat Portman.