The latest refudiate/Palin-as-Shakespeare dust-up got me thinking about a common “Palin wins 2012” argument, perhaps best phrased by Dave Weigel last week. Palin will win despite being a policy ignoramus and gaffe machine, according to this view, because the media is so enamored with her tweets and Mama Grizzly bullshit that they won’t cover her critically.
I’ll buy that the media will roll over, but I’m not buying that Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty and the rest will give Palin a pass. Last cycle, there were a seemingly infinite number of candidate debates on the cable networks. Palin can either show up at these events and talk about policy and positions, or she can watch the other candidates debate a cardboard cutout of her, inveigh against their caricatures of her positions, and generally show that she doesn’t have the grit to take on Obama. None of this will be favorable to a candidate who can’t string together a few coherent sentences without intense rehearsal.
I’d imagine that any honest observer of Presidential campaigns would acknowledge this point, but instead we get clowns like Halperin firing up the wind machine to blow out ever more deistic Palin scenarios, like this one quoted by Weigel:
Her candidacy would require almost none of the usual time sinks that force politicians to jump in early: power-broker schmoozing, schedule-intensive fundraising, competitive recruitment of experienced strategists, careful policy development.
Rhetorically, this sentence belongs in a Sunday sermon next to talk about ascension into heaven, being seated at the right hand of the Father, and other similar fairy tales.
gypsy howell
Is there a “Godwin”-like equivalent term for shutting down all discussion in a thread by invoking the example of Bush v Gore in 2000?
Remember the 2000 debates?
‘Nuff said.
She can win.
Jude
Right, but when she does show up at Republican candidate debates, is there any way that her hardcore followers will see her performance as anything other than masterful?
If she can win some of the early Republican primaries (lookin’ at you, South Carolina), she has a chance at the nomination. The base hates Romney, and she probably splits a lot of religio-votes with Huckabee. Does she win any of those? Maybe. Of course, since we’re still a long way out, who knows what’ll happen?
But man, do I ever hope that she gets nominated in 2012.
Zoogz
It helps awfully when one can be designated into a high position in a campaign rather than have to win it.
In normal circumstances, I’d be scared of Palin because she seemed even more intellectually bereft than W and she already beats Bush’s 27% for base support. It would seem that she has nowhere to go but up. On the other hand, she also doesn’t seem to have Bush’s drive or the ability to surround herself with good strategic minds.
The Republican bench is *that bad* though. It seems like almost anything can happen in two years’ time.
Nick
BushPalin can either show up at these events and talk about policy and positions, orheshe can watch the other candidates debate a cardboard cutout ofhimher, inveigh against their caricatures ofhisher positions, and generally show that she doesn’t have the grit to take onGoreObama. None of this will be favorable to a candidate who can’t string together a few coherent sentences without intense rehearsal.mistermix
@gypsy howell: Call me back when she (a) hires Karl Rove instead of a couple of people who are good on Facebook and (b) listens to his advice.
magurakurin
No way I’m hoping Palin wins the GOP primary. I don’t want to bite my nails for 6 months waiting for the results in November. However, slim her chances, they won’t be zero, and that is too high for me.
I do, however, hope she loses the GOP primary and then runs as an independent. In this way she will ensure an Obama landslide.
Now that, I hope for.
zattarra
Please let us stop the Bush/Gore analogies when talking about Obama/Palin. Palin might be the intellectual equivalent of Bush but Obama is not the personality equivalent of Al Gore. People didn’t like Gore. He had little charm and couldn’t fire up a crowd.
And remember the whole idiotic meme that there was “no difference between Bush and Gore?” Is Palin getting any votes because “really there is no difference between Palin and Obama?” I don’t think you are going to see a Palin campaign where she tries to moderate and run for the middle. She’s shot that plan in the foot.
Remember, the only people Palin fires up more than the Republican base is the rest of the country who will vote against her. Can Palin win a the GOP primary? Yes, easily. Can she unite the party and then bring in moderates and any non-social conservatives and any of the left. No chance. What state does a Palin campaign win in the general that the McCain campaign didn’t?
smedley
I don’t think we’re quite there yet, but the day will come when the Republican nominee for President will have completely bypassed all media other than right-wing media. The idea that NBC, CBS, ABC and CNN are left-leaning is so ingrained in Conservative America that Palin’s stock rises amongst them every time she tweets about the “Lamestream Media.”
Comrade Javamanphil
I sincerely hope (and think) you are correct in this analysis but it seems to me it relies on a misunderestimation of the lack of intelligence of the American public. That keeps that flame of doubt and cold fear alive.
dmsilev
The persona that Bush constructed for the 2000 campaign was “compassionate conservative”, ie “conservative without the actual nasty conservative bits”. It was a lie, of course, but it was a well-constructed lie that a lot of people bought into. It allowed him to run as a quasi centrist candidate.
Sarah Palin can’t do that. Even if she wanted to (unlikely), her current support base would declare her Unclean and abandon her in a heartbeat. They would probably blame “The Establishment” for corrupting the pure and innocent soul of Saint Sarah, and would either stay home or go third-party.
dms
shortstop
This isn’t a bad time to remember that unlike the Democratic Party, which counts delegates proportionally, the GOP allows states to choose whether to split delegates or do a winner-takes-all approach. If I’m not mistaken, many of the early primary states are pro-Palin and WTA.
kommrade reproductive vigor
If the media had orgasms over a steaming pile of shit because coprophiliacs were crazy about this one particular pile of shit, Very Serious People would seriously discuss the pile of shit’s chances of becoming the next PotUS, complete with in-depth analysis of the stink rays coming off the shit and the number of flies crawling over the shit.
I would not waste a moment of time wondering about the shit pile’s chances in the election. But sure is fun watching other people do it.
(Apologies to shit piles everywhere for comparing them to Palin.)
sal
You may be right, but it’s not the slam dunk you think. The other candidates may be reluctant to piss off the Palinistas, who can cause them a whole lot of trouble in the Confederican party. It would be a risky strategy for them to refudiate America’s Shakespeare.
ChrisS
On some level, deep down, I don’t think Palin will bother to run or if she does, it will only serve to expand her media impact and increase the dollars. She’s a grifter through and through. For crissakes her PAC focuses more on keeping her “media consultants” employed than giving money to her preferred candidates.
She saw the light in 2008, which is why she quit working for Alaskans and started the Money for Sarah Corporation. Fucking grifters.
Brien Jackson
@Nick:
Say what you want about Bush, he was pretty damn good at campaigning, and very good at playing to his strengths in the debate with Gore (which was bascially being a lying fuck bag and getting under Gore’s skin, but you get the idea). Palin’s sole debate thus far was like a bad comedy act.
shortstop
This is what’s going to make it all so very interesting. The ‘baggers don’t forgive and don’t forget. Will they stay home in November if they perceive their girl’s name has been taken in vain?
David
She does not have what it takes to campaign.
She will string them along, on Facebook, collecting donations until the last minute and then blame not entering the race on the Trig-haters.
zattarra
@Comrade Javamanphil:
I just remember the undecideds I knew who were Republicans and were leaning McCain. Palin got out there and they switched votes. The amount of disdain I see for Palin from Republicans I know (and especially female Republicans) is so high I can’t see her getting any votes outside her existing base.
shortstop
I think this is the most likely scenario. But it’s early yet, and her lack of self-awareness is endless, so…
kommrade reproductive vigor
@David: This.
See: Gingrich, Newt, also2.
Some Guy
It is hard to be critical when you have a crush. People like Halperin want her to like them very, vey badly and so anything she says is SO important. At the same time, I think they hold her in contempt, and would love to have a Katie Couric kind of interview that gives them all sorts of serious journalist street cred. The gender politics are just ridiculous. It is like watching a high school teen drama acted out by middle-aged people. Pathetic.
cleek
it doesn’t matter if they “give her a pass” or not. what matters is what the GOP base thinks of them. if they attack and the base thinks they’re being mean to Queen Teabag, then they fail. the base seems to have an emotional attachment to her that they don’t to Mitt, Huck or tpaw (who has flatly said he isn’t running anyway). anyone attacking her has to be careful not to seem mean.
but, this only matters if the primary is today. in reality, there are like 18 months left.
Econwatcher
You people who say you hope she gets nominated–you drive me crazy. Have you been paying attention at all? If things tilt a certain way, on the right day, anyone–really, anyone–can be elected president if they’re the nominee of either of the major parties.
matoko_chan
mm, i think you are correct about evrything here.
good post.
I’ll add there are biological reasons that she has to run in 2012.
In 2016, she will be post-menopausal, and that will blunt her appeal to her main supporters, old white guys.
Also her base (old white christians) will be decreased by die off, and her anti-base (youth and minorities) will be increased by the demographic timer and young voters coming of age..
Then there is the voter enthusiam factor.
Palin anywhere on the ticket in 2012 will bring Obama’s base screaming down out of the heavens like a swarm of MQ-9 drones on an afghan wedding party.
Shalimar
@David: As soon as Palin figures out that she can sell t-shirts, books and memorabilia to the fawning crowds who come out to see her, she will develop the drive to campaign. I don’t think she will do it, she makes plenty of money now without doing anything difficult to get it. But she could make more as a candidate if she was willing to create controversy by putting the proceeds in her own pocket instead of the campaign coffers. Which is illegal, but big effing deal to Palin: maybe they get around to fining her for campaign violations in 2018?
NonyNony
@David:
This. Perhaps this times 1 million.
We’re talking about the woman who quit being governor of Alaska halfway through her term. And you have to ask – why would she do that? If she had serious national ambitions, the best place to be is as a sitting governor of a state.
But if she just wants to milk the suckers for all the money she can get, and live her life on a perpetual Presidential campaign, well, you can’t do that as governor. Hell being a governor would get in the way since she’d have to deal with a legislature annoyed at her taking time away from doing real work to jet around the country living the high life. And an annoyed legislature could start with the ethics investigations and cut her money machine short.
She’s as serious a candidate for president as Alan Keyes. I’m a bit worried that the Republican base has been whittled down to those so truly stupid that they honestly cannot see a con-artist standing 6 inches in front of her face, so she could just win the primary without really even trying to. If so I may see how much the RNC charges for their mailing list, because I have this money in various Nigerian banks that needs to be moved out of the country quick, and all I need are some American bank account numbers to move the money into. That mailing list sure would come in handy…
matoko_chan
@Econwatcher: it is mathematically impossible for her to win on her base alone, and like mm says, she is incapable of extending her appeal outside her base.
her approve disapprove is 44/47 right now.
It was empirically observable in the 2008 campaign, more exposure makes her numbers fall further outside of her core fanatic base.
jon
I’m predicting some interesting scenarios for 2012. Most of them involve Fox News and this question: which Republican candidate will be the first to go on some other network and claim that Fox is trying to set up a Palin win? That’s when it will get very fun, as it won’t be Huckabee or Gingrich but could be any of a host of dull GOP guys in need of a boost. And the Liberal Media will do its best to provide it. I also see Fox being more of a story than any of their news (bold prediction, that) and look forward to Hannity and O’Reilly having to defend Fox from charges of not just partisanship but of specific partisanship.
Will Fox be able to maintain their usual level of fairness and balance in regard to their chosen candidate?
Of course they will, but it will be a very interesting show.
mclaren
Usually, you’re pretty astute about Republican politics, but in this case you’ve simply not been paying attention.
Here are the basics:
[1] The modern Republican party is a fundamentalist Christian vote machine. To modern Republicans, a Mormon is equivalent to a member of the Dianetics cult. No Mormon has any chance of getting the nomination from today’s Republican party. Zero. None. Nada. Zip. Diddly. Bupkiss. Zilch.
Mitt Romney has the same chance of winning the primaries as a pro-abortion atheist. That’s how intense the fundamentalist Christian hatred toward Mormons (who are openly described as “a cult”) runs in today’s Republican party.
[2] Huckabee has been fatally damaged by his role in the early release of that serial rapist.
Huckabee’s going nowhere. He’s dead. Huckabee’s chances for the presidency after the serial rapist’s early release are the same as Ted Kennedy’s chances for the presidency after Chappaquiddick.
[3] That leaves a faceless group of second-stringers. Tim Pawlenty has the Right Stuff to excite the crazies in the modern Republican party (he’s a wacko evangelican fundamenalist who loves outsourcing jobs, hates a progressive income tax, wants prayer in schools, wants more prisons and tougher penalties especially for meth users, loves REAL ID, wants lower corporates taxes, opposes Obama’s HCR and wants to let the free market reign over health care in America) but Pawlenty is highly vulnerable on some key far-right-wing issues.
Example: Pawlenty has come out in favor of statewide background checks for firearms purchases in Minnesota, which will cost him the support of the NRA. Pawlenty recently did a 180 on abortion but his earlier statements show that Pawlenty was pro-abortion: “I think we could move beyond the fundamental [abortion] question and start talking about other aspects of family planning,” he said in 1992, [Eagan This Week, Nov. 8 1992]. Around the same time, he told the St. Paul Pioneer Press that the abortion issue “isn’t a big deal” to him [Oct. 7, 1992]. The other Republican candidates will crucify Pawlenty on abortion and guns.
Source: Pawlenty and the Evangelicals: Where he stands on religious right hot-button issues.
If Pawlenty ever gets far enough to go up against Palin, she’ll eat him alive.
Wake up, people. The stimulus runs out this fall and then it’s back to a massive double-dip recession. Meanwhile, the new Republican congress will launch massive investigations into Obama’s birth certificate, his wife’s Christmas card list (recall that in the 90s, the congress hosted 140 hours of testimony futilely trying to find a scandal somewhere in the Clintons’ Christmas-card list), the conduct of the war in Afghanistan, fluoridation of drinking water as a Maoist Obama plot, etc., etc., etc.
By the time 2012 rolls around, with 12% unemployment and 50 million more families foreclosed and living under freeways and the economy crashing from the commercial real estate implosion (bigger than the housing crash) and the Washington Post and the New York Times echoing the Republicans’ lying “investigations” into Obama’s nonexistence high crimes and misdemeanors, Americans will be ready for a strong leader. A hero of the
SovietAmerican people. A fighter for the rights of the ordinarySovietAmerican citizen.She will become the Mother of the American People, the great scourge of all those bourgeois counter-revolutionary parasites who still dare oppose the sacred Reagan Revolution. Good times, comrades! Good times when Sarah takes power and declares that the constitution has been suspended “for the duration of the emergency…”
Redshirt
I hope she causes maximum damage to the Repuglican Party, in whatever fashion. I can foresee several legitimate ways she can do this, and I’m praying to FSM that she is in fact the agent of destruction for the modern day Confederacy.
shortstop
You’re attributing to her the ability to rationally think through a series of moves — to look six seconds down the road. She operates much more like a two-year-old, indulging every emotion and gratifying each desire (positive or negative) as soon as she has it.
I do agree that she won’t run in the end — but I think she may be deluding herself into thinking she has the option of candidacy until it becomes screamingly obvious to her that it’s going to involve too much hard work and unpleasantness. I don’t think she’s gaming the whole thing out now.
matoko_chan
@ChrisS: i think….that if she starts holding open pressers she is running.
im not sure she will risk it.
She was personally humilated during the 2008 campaign, and not just in the couric interview.
remember how one 80’s hairband after another shut her down on music useage? Van Halen, Survivor, Heart, Bon Jovi, Foo Fighters (90s iguess). that left a mark.
AllahP had a piece about her not wanting to read her morning press clippings and gettin’ the weeps over that, but he disappeared it.
I think her personal animus towards Obama is more than just capitalizing on the teabaggers racism. She started out offering her “help” to Obama and offering to flat race him….crickets.
Hell hath no fury an’ all that.
;)
Albatrossity
So Halperin admits that a R candidate could get away with no “careful policy development”.
Too funny.
Econwatcher
matoko_chan:
Let’s say another wave of the financial crisis hits before 2012, perhaps based on all of the commercial real estate that still hasn’t been written down to its actual value (i.e., almost zero). And let’s say we get another nasty terrorist attack in the election year, which the usual suspects find some way to pin on Obama’s “lax” approach to the war on terror.
Your “mathematical impossibility” will mean just as much as those models that said AAA-rated tranches in securitizations could never get hit.
If nominated by one of the two major parties, anyone can be elected president, including Sarah Palin. Don’t kid yourself.
El Cid
Personally I think she really doesn’t want to have to do all the work to pursue the nomination, maybe do some grandstanding to get more money, but I simply am no longer willing to be skeptical about any depths to which the Republican party might descend. And, yeah, if the economy downturns once again and gets distinctly worse as the 2012 election approaches, any weird shit is possible.
Econwatcher
mclaren:
You beat me to it. Well said.
mclaren
@Econwatcher:
4tehlulz
She’ll run, but only so that she can get crushed and play the martyrdom card to fresh new paydays.
Actually winning would be her worst nightmare, as then people would expect her to deliver something, instead of merely being the stand-in for their rage against that boy in the White House and buying her products.
Shalimar
@mclaren:
Is there any evidence showing that Republican primary voters care about that sort of thing when it is one of their own? They’re very quick to forgive anyone who isn’t liberal for just about anything afaict. I don’t think Huckabee will win, but because the money people who actually run the party don’t like him, not because of his ethical lapses. I would say the early favorites for the nomination are Thune and DeMint. Thune because he will wrest the Reaganesque empty suit voters from Romney and DeMint because he will win the battle to be furthest right.
El Cid
@4tehlulz: Actually, this suggests one of the best potential Palin strategies — run as the heroic martyr outsider against the oppressive insider Republican establishment party elite. Make the Republican Party itself into Real America versus Elite America. How’s that for some modern neo-Confederate loop-de-loop!
cleek
@Econwatcher:
yup
if the economy is still in the shitter 11/2012, the case for re-electing Obama will be looking thin, regardless of who the GOP nominates. five years of recession would change the game significantly.
Jinchi
Palin’s not going to run. But I do remember that during the 2000 Republican primary campaign, front-runner George Bush decided to skip out of the first debate and was rewarded with 5 or 10 minutes of free airtime before the other candidates were even allowed to speak.
Mike in NC
I believe Dubya’s handler Karen Hughes concocted the “compassionate conservative” nonsense, which the media bought hook, line and sinker. I recall in 2000 how the Republicans in my office would walk up to one another and boast (with a laugh) about how they were such “compassionate conservatives”.
I liked the older and simpler label: assholes
daveNYC
What #29 and #34 have said. Sarah as VP put her one heartbeat away from the presidency. Sarah as nominee puts her one election away from the presidency. Just think about what two more years of 10% U-3 will do to the mood of the electorate.
And if she wins, I’m running for the hills. I am so not a part of her ‘real America’ it isn’t even funny.
baldheadeddork
Palin isn’t going to run for the Republican nomination because it’s too much work. She’d have to spend more than a year in Iowa and New Hampshire instead of flying in (on a Lear 55 or better) and taking off two hours later, she’d have to take tens of thousands of unscripted questions from local media, and she’d meet people who had not been screened for loyalty. The attacks from her Republican opponents wouldn’t come during debates alone. If they didn’t go after her directly, their proxies would be on cable news every day and she would have to answer to it.
The difference between her and Bush is that Bush had a pedigree in the GOP establishment and their backing, and Bush didn’t quit as governor after a year and a half. That’s going to be the killer for Sarah Palin’s chances to become the Republican nominee.
But none of that is a fatal problem if she runs as an independent. No Iowa or New Hampshire, the Republican candidates would trip over themselves to praise her during the primaries to win her endorsement, and she gets to stay out of the fray until four months before the election. Media and public access are a lot easier to manage in the general than in the year before New Hampshire, and she gets to continue framing herself as a non-partisan populist.
Sarah Palin is electric – she will always take the path of least resistance. If she runs in 2012, it will be as an independent.
Nick
@zattarra:
Obama 2008 will not be Obama 2012.
Been to OpenLeft or FDL lately?
El Cid
Could they tell the difference if a Palin cardboard cutout showed up instead?
ChristianPinko
What’s with the gratuitous slap at Christian doctrine? Are you trying to insult all Christian BJ’ers?
DougJ
The other thing is this: I’ve never seen a poll in which she has a sizable lead over the other candidates (I think I’ve seen polls where she leads by a little, but usually she’s in second or third). How do you go from being, at best, tied with the other leading candidate to winning the primary without running a normal campaign?
If she had a 20 point lead on Romney et al. right now, I’d see how she might be able to pull this off, but she doesn’t.
Also too, Rudy Giuliani in 2008.
celticdragonchick
@shortstop:
You may well be right. Iowa and South Carolina are Palin country…and that would be a huge early lead for her.
mclaren
Too, America will still be bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, losing thousands of troops per year and pissing away 600 billion a year on both failed wars just for the supplemental appropriations, in addition to the 700 billion required to run our failed and futile military-industrial complex. Sarah can run on “victory through strength” and mobs will cheer.
(If you think Obama will have pulled U.S. troops out of Iraq or Aghanistan by November of 2012, you haven’t been paying attention. We’re currently building more than 700 bases in Afghanistan alone…many of which won’t even be completed until after the current July 2011 withdrawal date. Petraeus has already publicly stated that July 2011 is “not a hard and fast deadline” for Iraq withdrawal, and with Petraeus in charge of Afghanistan we can be sure he’ll pull the same scam he used to force Obama to commit more troops to Afghanistan a year ago.)
Then there’s the little issue of oil. If you think oil will still languish down at the bargain basement price of 86 dollars a barrel in late 2012, you’re dreaming. China and the asian tigers are pulling out of the economic downturn much faster than Europe and North America, and their insatiable demand for oil will force prices up into the stratosphere eventually. How high will oil go by late 2012? $120 a barrel? $150 a barrel? $160 a barrel?
No one knows. Deutsche Bank analysts predict permanent $175-a-barrel oil by early 2016, smashing the world economy and beginning the end of the Age of OIl as we know it. If they’re right — and that’s a big “if” — Southern California, the seventh largest economy in the world, collapses and millions of people will walk out of the state carrying everything they own on handcarts. The cost of the U.S. military-industrial complex could explode so far out of control that we’d be spending half a trillion dollars a year just for the oil to fuel our futile overseas war machine. America’s deficit could erupt into the 2 trillion dollar range, and you could see Dow 5000. Obamavilles could spring up across the nation, vast tent cities of the newly homeless, amid which riot-helmeted police will run amok burning and beating and tasering to death thousands of families for the crimes of “vagrancy” and “loitering.”
We’re living on borrowed time, folks. As soon as oil starts its relentless climb back above $150 a barrel and as soon as the Afhgan and Iraq insurgencies close the trap and give us our Dien Bien Phu in the middle east, it’ll be too late for a crash program to promote alternative energy technologies. It’ll be too late for military reform. It’ll be too late for the federal government to finally offer a bridge loan to California, because those state bonds will have gotten downgraded so badly they’ll be radioactive and the entire state will grind to a halt. Police, firefighters, prison guards, state bureaucrats, all furloughed and the California state government offices shuttered and the lights turned out and the windows boarded up.
In that environment, will Sarah Palin have a chance against Barack Obama?
Three guesses.
Anya
@zattarra: Also, Bush was not as polarizing when he first came into the scene. There were all those stories about his collaboration with dems in Texas and his bipartisan spirit. He could charm moderates in a way that Palin can never attempt. Also, republicans are more vicious than dems so they will not go easy on her on their primaries.
Emma
My prediction: She will string her followers along until they last minute, collecting money for her “run.” Then she will withdraw, bitching and moaning about the “mean” press and the “eeeevul” liberals.
Chris
@mclaren:
The funny thing is, the Mormons don’t get this, and a large number vote straight R ticket. They believe they are part of the “in” crowd there.
celticdragonchick
@zattarra:
Uh…no.
Bush was famously incurious, but he was not a blathering idiot who made free association word salad speeches.
Sister Sarah is in a league of her own.
Nick
@mclaren:If you think Obama will have pulled U.S. troops out of Iraq or Aghanistan by November of 2012, you haven’t been paying attention. We’re currently building more than 700 bases in Afghanistan alone…many of which won’t even be completed until after the current July 2011 withdrawal date. Petraeus has already publicly stated that July 2011 is “not a hard and fast deadline” for Iraq withdrawal, and with Petraeus in charge of Afghanistan we can be sure he’ll pure the same scam he used to force Obama to commit more troops to Afghanistan a year ago.)
I’m sorry, huh?
We already cut our troops by almost half in Iraq.
cmorenc
@NonyNony
Because being sitting governor of a state in the current landscape isn’t anything like the positive foundation for a Presidential run that it is in more normal times. State governments and revenues have hit up against hard financial times, even in Alaska, and state government budgets are under extreme pressure to either make drastic cuts or attempt to make up the shortfall with additional sources of revenue (read: taxes and added fees for services). State government expenditures involves services (like higher and secondary education, libraries, parks, etc) that far more directly and tangibly affect citizens than much of the federal non-entitlement spending does, and most state governors are in a no-win situation right now that plenty of people are going to be intensely pissed at them whatever options they choose.
Alaska for a long time was exempt from the normal laws of fisical gravity that other states are subject to, due to having such a rich (literally) source of revenue in oil royalties such that its government and citizens could have generously funded services, extremely low to nonexistent taxes, and even an oil revenue surplus rebate to its citizens all at the same time every year. It was effortlessly easy being Governor of Alaska and claiming to be a paragon of virtue in how to live with low taxes and balanced budgets; what a perfect position for Sarah Palin. Until, that is, the oil revenue drastically fell off and the normal laws of fisical gravitation began to apply in Alaska and the options and tradeoffs became much harder to make without creating popularity-busting waves that threaten to swamp the boat of any politician (especially a governor) having to navigate such a stormy landscape. See, e.g. the Governator of California as a prime example.
Sarah’s premature voluntary exit from being Governor proved to be a fortuitously timed move on her part, whether she planned it for the reason cited above or else so she could devote full-time to being a gadfly grifter political celebrity on the national scene, free of responsibility of having to deal with any arduous details of actual government, and before any stink of having to deal with the state’s fisical crisis could stick to her. As ex-Governor, she’s at complete liberty to conduct herself free from the burdensome weight of any accountable facts, and instead can simply make up whatever pseudo-facts suit her political theme of the moment.
To want to actually be governor of a state in the current climate of things is to have something of a political death-wish.
frankdawg
I don’t think this leaking d-bag will run, not really run for any office. She is following the Gingrich model: always say you are going to run, will run, think about running and then decide that now is not the right time. This keeps the money flowing in and you can never be wrong because you can claim anything & the morans will believe you.
celticdragonchick
@Chris:
My mom is as Christianist as they come, and she told me flat out she would never vote for a Mormon under any circumstance.
mclaren
@Nick:
You should be sorry.
We halved the number of U.S. army troops in Iraq and doubled the number of private contractor mercenaries.
You really do need to apologize to us for having fallen for that scam.
Source: America actually increasing the number of personnel in Iraq: more contractors, fewer troops.
Emma
And also. Beware of hitting the submit button and then losing the “click to edit” one.
I am amazed at the amount of defeated pessimism in some liberal quarters. We seem to have essentially conceded the 2012 election. What the hell is going on here? Have we so much bought into the Republican/FDL view of the world that we forget there’s a massive body of voters out there who never listen to polls or read blogs?
Lolis
@zattarra:
Exactly. Remember when conservatives put the word “compasssionate” in front? Part of why Bush was able to steal the first election was cause he pretended to be a moderate and healer of partisan wounds. Let’s not forget what he ran on. So he was able to appeal to Latinos, women, and Independents. Palin will not be able to fake being a moderate because she has exposed her extremist views. Now, all Republicans are running extremist campaigns to appeal to the Tea Party crowd. I have no idea where Republicans will be in two years, but I am not worried about Palin.
celticdragonchick
@frankdawg:
You come real close to the line on that one. Back off the gender specific insults a bit.
Kabiddle
I was going to say exactly what frankdawg said — she’s not going to run. She’s too lazy and undisciplined to carry it through. She’s doing her gingrich imitation and loving the attention all of this speculation is generating. They are both narcissists of the highest order. Even more so than for the money.
burnspbesq
“fairy tales?”
Just wondering what that gratuitous and unnecessary insult to people of faith adds to your analysis.
You wouldn’t (one assumes) go out of your way to gratuitously and unnecessarily insult people of color or people of two X chromosomes in a way that adds nothing at all to your analysis. Why should we be singled out for this shit?
Econwatcher
mclaren:
You had me, then you lost me. I’m with you on the risk of Palin actually becoming president; I don’t think it’s far-fetched.
But the apocalyptic scenarios? I was considering them in late 2008, but now I don’t think that’s where we’re headed.
Instead, I think we’re going to see a long, nasty grind, with high unemployment lasting a decade or more, and peridoic relapses of the financial crisis requiring various unsavory interventions just to keep the ship afloat.
I could see some civil unrest, and I think politics could take a nastier turn. But I don’t see a dramatic breakdown or millions on the streets. Despite all their talk, even the wingnuts have some sense of self-protection.
mclaren
@cmorenc:
Change a few words, and the result proves eerily reminiscent of another supposedly “unelectable” empty-headed halfwit far-right-wing ex-governor of a state immune to the normal laws of fiscal gravity:
Sound familiar?
Nick
@mclaren: You said “troops,” you said nothing about “private contractors”
try to be more clear next time you troll
mclaren
@Nick:
Improve your lying skills. Troops are troops are troops are mercenary ex-Army rangers.
Stop playing word games. You claimed Obama is drawing down U.S. military presence in Iraq and you got caught in your lie. Verbal calisthenics won’t help.
Nick
@mclaren:
No…No…No
YOU got caught in a lie and try to parse your words to cover your ass
First off, you said this
Which is it for July, 2011? Iraq or Afghanistan? You can’t even keep the right war’s withdrawal date straight!
From the article you wrote;
Civilian Contractors are not “troops,” soldiers are “troops.” Did we or did we not half the number of SOLDIERS in Iraq?
burnspbesq
@mclaren:
You’re complaining about other people “playing word games?”
Mclaren: opportunist or hypocrite? Inquiring minds want to know.
More to the point, words have meanings, and you don’t get to unilaterally decide what those meanings are.
fucen tarmal
from what i caught of the republican debates, they argued over who loved reagan more.
all she has to do is wear a sequined american flag bustier and talk about how her purity covenant had an exception clause in it for old “dutch”
Snarki, child of Loki
I think that the intra-GOP televised debates will be very informative and entertaining.
With all the winkin’ and checking hands for notes, how could it be otherwise?
matoko_chan
@Econwatcher: praps in 2012, but that is the last time.
the demographic timer is running down on non-hispanic caucs.
1/3 of NHCs vote liberal, Carter to Obama. the white conservative christian percentage of the electorate drops to less than 35% of the electorate by 2020.
permanent defeat, unless they can begin to appeal to minorities and youth.
mclaren
@burnspbesq:
On the contrary — it’s great! People like you and Nick who try to cover up their lies by playing word games reveal themselves as the sociopathic compulsive pathological liars you are.
burnspbesq: sociopathic crackpot, or pathological liar? No one cares, unfortunately for you, since everyone’s on to your lies.
When faced with compulsive pathological liars playing word games, someone has to decide what words mean. Get used to it.
mclaren
Nickl is not only an incompetent liar, he’s got reading comprehension problems.
My paragraph deals with two different situations, American military presence in Afghanistan and in Iraq. Apparently the lack of a paragraph break between the two sentences confused you into fantasizing that the country of Iraq is the same as the country of Afghanistan, Nick.
My lack of paragraph breaks in the last sentence will therefore doubtless confuse into fantasizing that you are the country of Afghanistan.
Let us know when you pass your Test of English as a Foreign Language.
Tell that to the Iraq women and children they shoot at checkpoints, asshole.
ChrisS
Off topic: Regardless, troops or contractors, if we’re still spending $200 – $300 billion a year blowing up shit in Iraq, whoever is there doesn’t matter.
Afghanistan is a different ball of wax.
Either way, the wars have been serious cash drains for a long time.
On topic: The more I think about it, the less I think Sarah will run. She’s making too much easy money right now and she doesn’t have to be accountable or live in any place other than Wasilla
zoe kentucky in pittsburgh
I think Obama can handle her, she’s one of the ugliest, meanest, most condescending people in American politics. Last time I checked Palin had a 45% disapproval/dislike rating. She’s one of those galvanizing figures where people who love her LOVE her blindly and people who don’t like her will not change their minds. The GOP will only allow her to get the nomination if they think they can’t beat Obama, if only for the ugly election drama it would certainly provide.
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I like Bush better than I like Palin, which is saying A LOT since I don’t like Bush at all.
burnspbesq
@mclaren:
God, you’re funny. You should take your act on the road.
Do you like pie? I think you’re about to discover a previously unknown, insatiable appetite for pie.
catclub
@mclaren:
2012 will be John Thune versus Haley Barbour as the ones that oust Mitt. I agree with the ‘Mormons have no chance’
theory.
colby
@sal:
Well, but there’s no tomorrow for Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee (and probably for Tim Pawlenty and Haley Barbour, too). If they don’t become President in 2012, their political careers are over. So, yeah, if you piss them off, your career might be over, but if you don’t lacerate Palin, your career’s over anyway.
daveNYC
The reason for my pessimism is that the economy is bad, and stands a good chance of getting worse. In normal circumstances, Obama would wipe the floor with whoever manages to get the Republican nomination. The positions they would have to take to win the primaries would just be too far out there to walk back.
However, with a bad economy all bets are off. Consider Carter and Reagan. Reagan promised sunshine and happiness, and got elected. I can easily imagine Palin running on a platform of smoke, mirrors, and easy answers, and beating Obama’s message of hard work and nuanced solutions.
colby
@mclaren:
You’re saying those guys can’t win, and you may be right. But that’s a far cry from them not “giving Palin a pass”. And there’s a lot of things between the two that could hobble even a strong nominee, let alone Palin, even in the “everything has gone wrong and we can’t do anything and PANIC!” scenario you laid out.
colby
@Nick:
OpenLeft and FDL can’t even claim a majority of the blogosphere, much less the greater “Left” in this country. And I doubt even a majority of THEM say there’s no difference between Obama and Palin.
Sheila
Why is it assumed that Palin wants to run? She doesn’t like work and she loves money and the Presidency will require her to at least work a bit and put aside shoveling in the money for four years. I would like to see her run in 2012, as I think she was instrumental in losing the election for McCain (he helped a great deal in that, however), but she hasn’t a chance of appealing to the majority of people in this country, despite their lack of information and engagement.
colby
@mclaren:
Not really. Reagan served out his 8 years as governor, the standard Term of Service for a successful chief executive in this country. That’s far, far from cutting and running two years in.
Don’t get me wrong, I see a path for Palin, but comparing her stint as governor to Reagan’s ain’t it.
artem1s
except the mainstream/money GOP only wants her around for the same reason they wanted Dan Quayle around. To make the REAL candidate LOOK brilliant. Does anyone doubt that Romney will look like a f*cking genius next to her and the GOP base will wring their hands anxiously until she is knocked out of the race and then they will all collectively heave a sigh of relief and dutifully vote for whatever preselected wingnut the GOP wanted them to vote for in the first place. This time maybe Romney or Boehner or anyone who can establish some fiscal conservative creds and is willing to kowtow to the WhiteWing Christian Conservative Social agenda. Palin is a tool.
danimal
Palin won’t have to run a traditional campaign. She can stay on the sidelines and play kingmaker while all the announced candidates kiss her (ring). If the GOP nomination process becomes a muddled mess in 2012 (as I believe it will-they’re deemphasizing winner-take-all this go ’round), Sarah can parachute into the race prior to the convention and become everybody’s second choice. After some convention wrangling, only one emerges: Sarah-the savior of the GOP.
IOW–She can keep her powder dry, choose which hill to fight on and maintain control of the optics while making good use of her bully pulpit. By playing 11 dimensional chess, also, too.
asiangrrlMN
Palin doesn’t like work. Being president is work. I think she will run, but then quit when it gets too haaaaaaard. Do I think there’s a chance she could be elected if she ran? Yes. Small, but a chance, nonetheless. This depresses the hell out of me.
Catsy
@mclaren: Here’s the problem with your scenario.
In 1, 2 and 3, you list reasons why Romney, Huckabee and Pawlenty won’t get nominated. Romney because Christians hate Mormons, Huckabee because of the serial rapist scandal, and Pawlenty because he’s insufficiently ideological. You then note that what remains are a mass of nobodies.
The thing is: someone has to be nominated. Assume Palin runs. Assume some of these faceless nobodies run as well. Assume you are correct about Romney, Huckabee and Pawlenty having no chance at the nomination.
Who’s left? “None of the above” is not one of the options provided.
Wile E. Quixote
@
mclarenThe Glenn Beck of Balloon Juice:Only if you’re a retard who got his history degree from Glenn Beck U. Proposition 13 passed in California in 1978. Now, for those of us who actually know something about American history and the history of California when was Ronald Reagan governor? Well he was governor from 1967 to 1975. Now, here’s another question: What was Ronald Reagan’s first major act as governor of California? Well he signed one of the largest tax increases in history into law, and then increased taxes on banks and corporations in 1971. Oh, Reagan also squelched two Proposition 13 prototypes in the early 1970s.
Comparing Reagan to Palin is ignorant and stupid. Palin is stupid and lazy. Reagan wasn’t. He was president of the SAG in the late 1940s, beat Pat Brown in 1966 and was re-elected in 1970. He almost unseated Jerry Ford for the 1976 presidential election and beat Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Walter Mondale in 1984. Reagan was an enormously effective politician who spent years building his base. Idiots like you who compare him to Sarah Palin are every bit as stupid as the conservative idiots who venerate him and ignore, because they’re as chained to their bullshit as you are, the fact that Reagan signed some enormous tax increases into law and liberalized California’s laws on abortion and contraception in the late 1960s. What’s next mclaren? Are you going to spell “OLIGARHY” for us?
aarrgghh
win or lose, expect saracuda to run again in 2014.