My impression is that Jack Conway is a perfectly competent Democratic Senatorial candidate, but if he wins, it will be because he had the luck to face a truly awful Republican candidate in Rand Paul:
The more Kentucky voters get to know Rand Paul, the less they like him. When PPP first polled the race in December Paul’s favorability was a +3 spread at 26/23. By May it was a minus 7 spread at 28/35. Now it’s a minus 8 spread at 34/42. The national media attention Paul has received has hurt his cause with voters in the state — 38% say it has made them less likely to support Paul while 29% say it has made them more inclined to vote for him and 33% say it hasn’t had an impact on their attitude toward Paul one way or the other.
I still think Paul will win, but this may end up being a lot closer than I thought possible. McCain won this state by 17 points, so I just can’t see how Republican loses here. But Paul may be inept enough to make this one competitive.
Update. Commenter seabe makes a good point:
Doug, using Obama’s percentage as a litmus for a state like Kentucky is poor political analysis. McConnell barely won his re-election bid, in 2008…even though Obama was on that same ticket. McConnell won 53-47. Now one could argue that Obama being on the ticket encouraged Democrats to come out, or…you could see Kentucky for what it is, and know that Obama may have actually hurt the Dem’s chances there.
Kryptik
Sadly, I think the only sin that Rand Paul is getting punished for here is trying to qualify some of his battier statements for some kind of national credibility and hedging his bets. If he went full-throat GOPbertarian, he probably would be soaring. Like the old axiom: If you’re explaining, you’re losing.
Brian J
Maybe the state is just much more open to electing Democrats if they come from the state as opposed to coming from outside the state. That seems to be true of Republicans in a lot of blue states, like New York. Or maybe Paul is just a toxic combination of being a bad candidate with terrible ideas.
But in the end, who cares? There’s no guarantee they will win, but as you said, he’s running poorly in a state where McCain routed Obama. He should be running away with this race, but he’s not. The Democrats have an opportunity. They better use it.
gonzone
Just remember, they elected Bunning and re-elected McConnell, so don’t give them credit too early for being sensible voters.
Michael
Rand Paul appeals most to two demographics – dumb assed mountain hicks and reflexive GOP voting morons in the outer suburbs and exurbs. Actual working career-minded, business oriented farmers tend toward being conservative, but they’re also very realistic about their livelihoods and are not monolithically stupid.
My prediction is that the Southeast mountain counties, the nonfarming rural counties, Northern KY exurbs and suburbs of Cincinnati and the counties just outside Louisville break hard for Paul. Louisville, Frankfort and Lexington are owned by Conway. Everything else will depend on how much enthusiasm Conway can generate in the other cities and the working farm areas.
amorphous
@Brian J:
Oh now this is funny.
JGabriel
DougJ:
I’m not sure that’s an accurate measure of wingnut enthusiasm. For better or worse, McCain was perceived as a reasonable conservative. McConnell may be an evil, cold-hearted, corporatist bastard, but he’s also perceived as sane.
While there are a lot of House districts wingnutty enough to elect someone who’s batshit crazy, there are very few places where the entire state is that bonkers (Yes, I’m looking at you Oklahoma).
Here’s hoping that KY, despite its winger leanings, is not yet crackers enough to actually elect Rand Paul.
.
EconWatcher
Somewhat OT, but it looks like Michael Steele is keeping his job (and I have to eat my bold predictions from last week). http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/07/saving-steele-the-sequel-rnc-chairman-keeps-squeaking-through-scandal.php?ref=fpb
Astounding. I thought that had to be the last straw. What would this guy have to do to get fired?
seabe
Doug, using Obama’s percentage as a litmus for a state like Kentucky is poor political analysis. McConnell barely won his re-election bid, in 2008…even though Obama was on that same ticket. McConnell won 53-47. Now one could argue that Obama being on the ticket encouraged Democrats to come out, or…you could see Kentucky for what it is, and know that Obama may have actually hurt the Dem’s chances there.
Kentucky is one of our best chances at a pick-up, and it was that way even without Rand Paul leading the charge. He’s just made it significantly more likely.
Kentucky has more registered Democrats than it does Republicans, and Independents are being lapped up by Conway.
Right now it’s a toss-up; by November, Conway should pull a 2-point win.
JGabriel
@amorphous: True. It sometimes seems like the Democratic motto should be: We Can Lose This – If We Try!
.
Chris G.
As red as we talk about KY as being, Dems have come surprisingly close the last few cycles — Bunning nearly lost in 2004, when W carried the state by 300,000 votes, and in 2008 McConnell sweated it out and only won 53-47 while McCain won 58-41. And McConnell’s opponent was nobody’s first, second, or even third choice.
stuckinred
@EconWatcher: Ask the former AD at Georgia.
eemom
Benen says they are polling even at 43-43.
And look at Nevada where the former Dead Majority Leader Walking was blessed with that Angle lunatic.
And look at Florida where Charlie Crist seems like he just might pull it out.
I really believe that the teabagger idiocy is gonna backfire on these fuckers. And if that happens it will be proof of the existence of God and the Mysterious Ways in which He works.
eemom
@EconWatcher:
I don’t hate to say I toldja so, so, I toldja so!
Roger Moore
@EconWatcher:
I’m starting to believe the people who suggest he’s being kept around as a fall guy for when the Republicans don’t do as well as predicted in November. They’ve way oversold their chances in the midterm elections, so they need somebody to blame when they fall short of overwhelming success. Who better to take the fall than the minority guy who’s been saying dumb shit and mismanaging the RNC for the past couple of years?
Roger Moore
@JGabriel:
Yes We Can!
EconWatcher
seabe:
It sounds like you know a lot more about Kentucky than I do. But all I can see in our near future is an electoral bloodbath.
The Republicans will successfully nationalize the elections in the last few weeks before the polls open. It writes itself. (“Obama and the Democrats have given you 10% unemployment and the highest deficits in U.S. history. Send a message to Washington. Enough is enough.”)
They nationalized the election in 1994, and they did not have this kind of material to work with. We’re toast, no matter how bad the candidates they put up.
The only possible silver lining I can see is that some real crazies are going to start getting national exposure as freshmen congressmen, and maybe that’ll push the pendulum back for 2012. Demographics and higher turn-out in presidential years make that a reasonable prospect.
eemom
um, not be the token black “leader” in a party whose AA members can be counted on one hand of a person missing a few fingers?
seabe
@EconWatcher:
I don’t know more about Kentucky, per se, I just know political analysis.
The House? Bloodbath, for sure. Nothing we can do about that, all of those Blue Dog assholes are vulnerable no matter what.
However, I’m just talking about the Kentucky race, specifically. Kentucky is our second best chance at a pick-up, right behind Ohio.
cleek
looks like WV is going to get its special election to replace Byrd’s seat after all.
Brian J
@amorphous:
Why is it funny? Aren’t there at least a few people who still hold some power who helped run things in 2008? If so, why wouldn’t they use this opportunity like they used the ones in Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia?
It looks like we are going to lose North Dakota and very possibly lose Indiana and Delaware, although for Delaware, I have some, possibly stupid, hope that things work themselves out. But if we pick up Ohio, Kentucky, and North Carolina, or perhaps Arizona, or perhaps get Cristo caucus with us in Florida, we can still do okay, even if we end up losing in Nevada.
eemom
All due respect, this attitude really sucks.
EconWatcher
PS That’s another bold prediction that I hope I’ll have to eat later. But I think it’s correct.
J.W. Hamner
It would be nice to think that the poor performance of Rand Paul’s brand of craziness is a good sign about what happens when people find out what Tea Partiers really think… but sadly I think every other candidate in the country has to be light years more media savvy than Paul.
John PM
@eemom: #12
This is what I have been telling people. Republicans have been happy having the teabagger-types vote for them for the last 20 years (or longer), but to actually field them as candidates is going to hurt the party this time around.
I have also been telling people that the Democrats are keeping their powder dry until September. I think that after Labor day the Democrats are going to let the Republicans have it with both barrels. If they don’t, then the Democrats will have missed a great opportunity. However, it is my belief/hope that this is the Democrats’ plan.
@Roger Moore: #14
I have not heard this theory, but I like it.
Citizen_X
@EconWatcher: Where is this “Republican Party” that gives a shit about unemployment?
If they go that route, I would hope that Dems would have the brains to play back their fuck-the-unemployed statements. No, the Repubs are going to go on deficit-deficit-deficit, just like they have been. Which really isn’t an issue that motivates most voters.
Edit: @EconWatcher: Credit for the preemptive humility, though!
Brian J
@Roger Moore:
I don’t understand why he’s still around, either. It’s not as if he’s having some sort of incredible success recruiting minority candidates or raising money or something. He’s doing everything either poorly or, at best, in a very mediocre fashion.
Are you telling me there isn’t one other non-white person wouldn’t take that job? Getting rid of him publicly isn’t bound to hurt, since it’s not as if they can really sink any lower in regards to minority votes. And if they really, really wanted to do so, they could just get him in private and make it clear that if he doesn’t resign, they will make his life miserable.
In other words, while I try not to believe far fetched ideas like the one you suggest, it’s becoming harder and harder to deny that something out of the ordinary is going on.
Sly
@EconWatcher:
I’ve always thought this claim was dubious and nothing more than the conventional wisdom of people who believed, wrongly, that all politics was national.
Regardless, there are many disparities between 2010 and 1994. The biggest ones being regional party approval ratings (the Republicans are polling worse than dogshit everywhere but the South, while in 1994 they were competitive even in the NE) and the fact that we’re seeing an equal number of retirements between the parties.
A lot of moderate Democrats outside of the party’s traditional strongholds stepped down in 1994 while the same didn’t happen with Republicans, and the campaign committees spent most of lot of their resources in those areas.
Mr Furious
@cleek: Well, this might be what propels Manchin into the seat, so that could be good. I got the sense he was unwilling to appoint himself. But if the people of WV were to CHOOSE him, well…
CalD
The thing that always bugs the crap out of me up about Jensen is his willingness to position 1-point differences in polls with +/- 4%(+) MoE’s as being somehow significant. He does that shit all the time.
Brian J
@EconWatcher:
Even if you think we are toast no matter what, why not try to win all that we can win? If we are bound to lose badly no matter what, then we will do so. But while we lose a decent number of seats in the House and possibly a few in the Senate, there’s no guarantee it’s going to be a blood bath. Why set us up for failure by acting like it?
EconWatcher
eemom:
I take your point, but I’m donating as much as I can to my (very endangered) local congressman and otherwise doing what’s within my poor powers to help the team. But on this site, I just call ’em like I see ’em.
There was a lot of triumphalism here in 2009, including loose talk about how the Republican Party was going extinct. I said at the time that I didn’t see how the economy could possibly be fixed by mid-terms, and our side would take the blame for it. I’m obviously not a reliable prognosticator, but on that issue I think the reality is what it is.
Brian J
@John PM:
I’d like to believe that the Democrats will really start to bury the Republicans after Labor Day, but it’s not as if they can do that after taking it easy all spring and summer. The question is, have they been doing the work that goes largely unmentioned but is still necessary, as was the case in 2008? I really don’t know the answer to this, so if you or anyone else can fill me in, I’d appreciate it.
@Sly:
I continue to believe that the Democrats are mostly the victims of anti-incumbent forces. It’s not that they are or their ideas are unpopular compared to the Republicans and their ideas. It’s just that there are more of them holding office, so they naturally suffer.
Still won’t help them if they don’t do anything to fight for their seats, but it does mean that there is hope.
timb
@EconWatcher: stop being able to raise money hand over fist.
Norwegian Shooter
@JGabriel:
Here’s hoping that KY is Cracker enough to significantly inflate McCain’s margin over Obama. Then they might actually elect the white guy Democrat.
EconWatcher
Brian J: I agree, and I did not mean to suggest otherwise. But aren’t we discussing our actual opinions here, not what we might hope to be the case, or what we might say to rally the troops?
AxelFoley
I was thinking about something totally different than what was in the actual body of this blog piece…
Emma
EconWatcher: I figure he has the pictures of the dead girls or live boys and the credit card receipts to prove it!
John Bird
I suppose if we can survive a Rep. Ron Paul, we can survive a Sen. Rand Paul. If he’s anything like his dad, he’ll mainly just waste everyone’s time with ridiculous bills that will get tabled immediately.
The reflection of the discourse in this country, of course, is the disturbing part.
timb
@EconWatcher: Yeah, but the financial crisis doesn’t change demographics. Anyone predicting anything less than a 2010 bloodbath was a dreamer (or maybe one of those Obama-bots fainting at rallies), but 2012 and 2016 will see the end of the conservative wing of the Republican Party. You can’t change demographics and they’ve done nothing to stop pissing minorities off. There is no way the conservative wing survives 50 million Hispanic voters.
As much as I hate to say it (and agree with Harry Reid), if you want to win this November, then go with the immigration wedge issue and watch Republicans bring Dem voters to the polls. It’s cynical, but not above that when the loser Blue Dog my state currently has as Senator is going to be replaced with a bank lobbyist evangelical liar…
John Bird
@Brian J:
Beware of Democratic officials from North Carolina. Bewaaaaaaarrreeee….
amorphous
@Brian J:
Probably a fair point. They have made incredible progress considering the Republicans are opposed to everything. I just don’t understand how they are losing the message about “WE HAVE TO STOP SPENDING NOW!” and things of that nature.
I guess the general public is just stupid or not interested enough to understand, though. Plus Obama is black and a Muslim.
eponymous coward
McCain won this state by 17 points, so I just can’t see how Republican loses here
Uh, Jack Conway is the ELECTED AG of Kentucky. That means, yes, he’s won a statewide election with a (D) next to his name.
If you can’t see why a national Presidential election in an Appalachian state with an African-American at the top of the ticket might be a teeny, tiny bit different than a statewide election between a standard-issue red-state Democrat (who’s won a statewide election), many of whom win Senate elections (in recent years: Edwards in NC, Nelson in FL, Lincoln and Pryor in AR) and a teabagger with some views that are out of alignment with the Republican party… really, I can’t help you here.
eemom
@EconWatcher:
yep, you got that one right. All that post-2008 glee was sadly misplaced — not so much because of the economy, IMO, but because we starry eyed dreamers misunderestimated (1) the infinite depths to which the republicans would willingly sink to try to torpedo Obama, and (2) the infinite depths of the stupidity of the American electorate.
timb
How batshit nuts do you have to be to decide you want to support a guy MORE after he says he doesn’t like the Civil Rights Act….after he goes back on his pledge to stay away from the lobbyists……etc, etc?
Member of that 29%: “Marge, says here that that Paul fella is a hypocrite AND maybe a racist. [pauses] Dang it, that cinches it, I’m votin’ for him!”
Comrade Mary
@CalD: I agree that a 1 point increase is meaningless on its own, but it now seems that more people have made up their minds one way or another. So as more people get to know Rand Paul, the proportion of people who disapprove of him is increasing. (Yeah, he’s made similar gains in approval, but I suspect that this may top out at about this value.)
I think we saw the same pattern with Palin, although her likeability gap is much larger.
danimal
I loved this from James Vega in the Democratic Strategist
WereBear
I’m encouraged by Rand’s poor showing.
I keep saying: it’s not that vast gobs of people love the Tea Baggers. It’s that they love what they think the Tea Baggers represent.
Once they know what they are getting, they can’t dump it fast enough.
Remember, Conservatives get their greatest gains when they fool people about what they’re about.
Like, you know, “compassionate” conservatism. How’s that workin’ for ya?
John Bird
@timb:
Well, there are a lot of conscious racists in the U.S., that’s for sure, and even more people who are going to perk up whenever you talk about radically carving away at any and all state regulation.
Then again, there’s also the surprising number of people who claimed they supported Sue Lowden MORE strongly following the chicken shit. Those people are akin to those studies showing that a certain part of the populace will increase their support for ideas they hold when those ideas have been proven wrong in front of them.
HillbillyInBC
This thread reminded me of something I wrote in an e-mail exchange with a friend the day after the 2008 general election:
“Here’s a data point for ya. Results from my ancestral homeland of Letcher County, Kentucky, deep in the mountains of Appalachia. Democratic Senate candidate Bruce Lunsford carried the county by a margin of 4198 to 3903, while McCain trounced Obama by 5367-2623. Essentially this means that somewhere around 1000 of the 8000 voters said ‘I’ll vote for a Democrat to replace our senior Senator and the minority leader, but I ain’t votin’ for no n—– to be my president’.”
AxelFoley
@WereBear:
Indeed. See: Virginia, Commonwealth of and New Jersey, State of. Oh, and America, United States of, circa 2000 – 2008.
John Bird
Hey, it’s easy enough to get regular Democratic voters to vote out of fear of the (truly fearsome) Republican agenda.
It’s not terribly effective, in my experience, with left-wing kids who first voted in 2008, who don’t have party loyalty, and who don’t feel they were given what they voted for in 2008. This is anecdotal, and the statistical evidence for an enthusiasm gap is debatable, but I’m talking about my own work here.
Those get mad when you tell them that they need to vote out of fear, and are frustrated because they aren’t political illiterates and know that they’re not likely to see a Democratic majority this size anytime soon, but they don’t feel that they are seeing the Democratic platform being promoted at the highest levels.
It’s a strategic problem, perhaps, THE strategic problem of 2010. Don’t get me wrong – it’s worth it to vote (D) just to keep the (R)s out, and I vote straight-ticket (D) as well as taking party recommendations for the “non-partisan” offices in my state and locality. But selling that idea is tough – probably tougher with left-wingers than right-wingers.
Redshirt
@danimal: Yes, this. I’d really like to stop following politics completely, but I find myself unable (unwilling) to disengage due to my daily horror at what the Republican party is doing, what they’ve become. They’re a danger to our country and they have to be stopped. I consider myself a well informed, properly patriotic citizen of America, and I now take this as my duty. I’m thinking of 2010 just like it was 2008 – it’s just as important.
Midnight Marauder
I’ve made no secret about my torrid love for Jack Conway. The dude is legit. But the biggest reason he will most likely win is the simple fact that he is running against Rand Paul, whose idiocy knows no bounds; who continues to propose policy solutions that are in no way achievable in the real world; and who has a real gift for exposing himself as an asshole to the people whose votes he will eventually need. Rand Paul is, as they say, the gift that keeps on giving.
Also, I look forward to seeing who Rand Paul offends next (although it will be kind of tough to top shitting on the disabled and the Civil Rights Act of 1964), and what absurd policy he advocates, only to completely reverse direction once people discover how moronic his idea actually is (I’m looking at you, underground electric fence to keep out dirty immigrants.)
Shalimar
@timb:
More like, “Marge, Rush says the evil liberals are out to get that poor Rand Paul boy. I thought he looked a little queer before, but I’m definitely for him now that I know how it really is.”
John Bird
@Midnight Marauder:
Can we underestimate, though, the enthusiasm for unworkable, spite-fueled “solutions” on the right, especially in Kentucky?
Sly
@Midnight Marauder:
I wouldn’t count Randal out, if I were you, despite how effective Conway is.
Paul still has the support of independents who are certainly not Republicans, even though they have voted for Republicans their entire lives and how dare you try to label them!
Omnes Omnibus
@Sly:
Ah, yes, you are, of course, referring to Republicans, right?
Citizen_X
@Midnight Marauder:
What, you mean like a dog fence? So is the proposal one that requires all Mexicans to wear the proper collars? Good luck with that, Rand.
Note: Rand only refers to “My plans include an underground electric fence, with helicopter stations to respond quickly to breaches of the border.” John Cornyn doesn’t understand it, either.
Midnight Marauder
@John Bird:
Nonsense.
Just look at the numbers. Democratic registration in Kentucky is at 1.6 million versus 1 million for Republicans. Rand Paul’s unfavorables are on a Sarah Palin-like trajectory, and we are still months away from the home stretch. It’s kind of tough to make a case for Republican enthusiasm in the Kentucky Senate race when the Republican Senate candidate is a a major factor in suppressing enthusiasm for his side, and elevating enthusiasm on his opponent’s side.
Moreover, those “solutions” you are referencing include ones already proposed by Rand Paul, which played a major factor in his increasing unpopularity in the state.
John Bird
@Midnight Marauder:
I hope you’re right.
eemom
@Redshirt:
Intellectually, I agree with this as well. But on a more primitive level, Teh Evil and Teh Stupid have become so overwhelmingly all-encompassing on so many fronts, and the sense of despair so intense, that it’s increasingly hard not to just crawl under the bed and be done with it.
Midnight Marauder
@Sly:
I’m all in on this. Jack Conway wins this thing by 3-5 points. In the closing month(s) of the race, he will be polling as the frontrunner.
I think a lot of people here are severely underestimating how self-destructive Rand Paul has been, currently is, and will continue to be.
BC
Kentuckians know the benefits of farm price supports and the Tennessee Valley Authority. Let Conway suggest that Rand Paul will pull the plug on these – say, privatize TVA – or that he, in principle, is against such government spending, and I don’t think R. Paul can win. Rural electrical cooperatives, which are government subsidized, are the way most Kentuckians get their electricity. They are a part of these coops and set the policy. Republicans have been trying to wean these cooperatives off the federal teat for years with little success because most of the people who are coop members are Republicans. Rand Paul may be ideologically opposed, but the Kentuckians are firmly behind them. If I know this, then I know that Jack Conway knows this.
Zandar
As the resident black guy in Kentucky, I can tell you that Martin Luther King would have trouble reaching the 50’s in any poll in the Bluegrass State.
Barack Obama is why Mitch McConnell won in 2008, and he’ll be the reason Rand Paul will win in 2010.
Let’s be honest here.
Bobby Thomson
@Comrade Mary:
That’s not the point, which is that with a 4 percent margin of error, you don’t even know if a 1 percent change is real – or even in the right direction.
FlipYrWhig
Let’s say Paul wants to nationalize the election (vote for me and we’ll all stick it to the Obama-Pelosi Dems!) and Conway wants to localize it (I’ll stand up for the people of Kentucky, who are hurting, with tangible solutions). To accomplish that, IMHO Conway is going to want to create some distance between himself and Obama, or between himself and liberalism. He needs to make sure that Paul can’t effectively stigmatize him as part of freedom-hating liberal tyranny.+ The Kos crowd that eagerly supported Tester and Webb would be foursquare behind that approach. Will the Kos crowd of 2010 feel the same way?
+ Angle’s supporters, by contrast, are going to make the play that she may be an odd duck but you need to vote for her to stick it to Harry Reid, majority leader and prime mover of the Democratic agenda. Reid can’t really run as heterodox so he just has to brazen it out. But Conway can run as heterodox, as Webb did, and as Lincoln did in her primary.
John Bird
What are the numbers on Tea Party members who identify as independents? And in KY? Any good links anyone has?
eemom
@FlipYrWhig:
it should surprise no one that Lady Jane has issued her tacit endorsement of Angle by smearing Reid as a pharma whore.
Shorter Jane: Goddamn the republicans for fucking me over when I was all set to take credit for “bringing Reid down.”
I really wish someone, or something, would make that woman STFU between now and November. It’s not that I think she has any real influence. It’s just on top of everything else, we really don’t need her shit.
The Truffle
@eemom: I’m curious about the debates. I imagine Rand Paul and Sharron Angle won’t do so hot.
I can’t see another 1994. Losses, yeah. But not a bloodbath. The GOP doesn’t have cohesiveness or vision.
Paul in KY
Jack Conway is going to beat Rand Paul. Mr. Paul is a bit too nutty & Mr. Conway has enough money to put out the ads that will bring it home to even low information voters (of which, KY has a passle).
Paul in KY
@Zandar: Zandar, are you that guy? I wave at you now & then :-)